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Transcript
Now, back to your hosts, Eric [music] Townsend and Patrick Ceresna. Eric, it was great to have Morgan on the show. Now, listeners, you're going to find the download link for this week's trade of the week in your research roundup email. If you don't have a research roundup email, it means you have not yet registered on macrovoices.com. Just go to our homepage and look for that red button over Morgan's picture saying looking for the download. Patrick, for this week's trade of the week, Morgan Downey argues that this oil shock may have consequences well beyond the next headline. So, how do you position for the bigger aftermath story? Morgan Downey's core point was that the market may be too focused on the next headline around a potential peace deal, while missing the much larger aftermath story. The next short-term move in crude may very well hinge on whether the Strait of Hormuz crisis de-escalates or flares back up, but the bigger investment theme is that the global energy infrastructure has just been exposed as more fragile than markets assumed. Even if the shooting stops tomorrow, Morgan emphasized that restarting flows, rebuilding confidence, turning wells back on, restoring tanker traffic, and hardening the system against future disruptions could take months and in some cases years. So, rather than trying to trade the next tick in crude oil, this week's trade of the week is about positioning for the energy resilience rebuild through oilfield services. From a trade construction standpoint, the challenge is that the oilfield services trade has already moved aggressively. The Spider S&P Oil and Gas Equipment and Services ETF, ticker XES, is trading around $132.15, but it has already rallied roughly 72% year-to-date, leaving it vulnerable to a sharp pullback if short-term peace headlines may take pressure off crude. So, rather than taking a full delta one exposure on the ETF, I want to use the longer-dated call option to stay involved in the broader energy resilience thesis while defining a capital at risk. Specifically, the structure buys the December 18th, 2026 $135 strike call trading around $14.25 with roughly 211 days to expiration and a delta near 53 cents. That gives the trade meaningful upside participation if the oil field services thesis continues to develop while limiting downside exposure during a correction. And if we do get a sharp pullback, the option structure provides flexibility to roll down strikes and reposition into the weakness rather than absorbing the full drawdown of the ETF itself. From a payoff perspective, the maximum risk is limited to $14.25 premium paid while the upside remains open above the $135 strike. The goal is to use the call as a defined risk way of maintaining exposure to oil field services upside while preserving flexibility to adjust, roll down, and or add exposure if a short-term peace headline created a tactical correction. Patrick, every Monday at Big Picture Trading, your webinar explains how retail investors can put on our most recent trade of the week. For those listeners that want to explore how to put on these trades in greater detail, don't miss out on a 14-day free trial at bigpicturetrading.com. Now, let's dive into the post-game chart deck. All right, Eric, let's dive into these equity markets. Well, Patrick, this semiconductor-driven rally in the S&P seems to be stalling or at least pausing here. I'm not sure what comes next if we're going to rally even more from here, but we're certainly overdue for just for a cyclical pullback and not even necessarily a reversal or a crash or anything like that, but this has gone too far, too fast in a straight line. So, we ought to have at least some Fibonacci retracement, you know, take out 38.2 to 50% of this rally, maybe back down to 7,000 or so or 7,200 and you know, some someplace well below the current 74 40 that I'm looking at at recording time. A couple of 100 points down would be entirely normal here even if the bull market remains intact and I think there's plenty of arguments to say that it doesn't necessarily need to stay intact. So, I I think we're overdue for a pullback. I would say, however, that I'm reframing my big picture view of this market. I think a lot of our listeners know I've been just scratching my head trying to figure out how we're rallying to new all-time highs when it's so clear that we're in the middle of the biggest shock to the oil market that's ever happened. I I think the answer is really pretty simple. It's because the market is anticipating that no matter how bad it gets, it's just going to bring that much more stimulus. Now, I know what many of you are thinking. No, no, no, wait, it works differently. If it's a oil price driven shock, that means that we're going to be dealing with a big inflation risk and they won't be able to stimulate. Well, look, if it's as big as Morgan Downey says it is, then it's not going to stay in inflation shock, it's going to become deflationary as we start to the global economy. And in an election year, you better believe that the Trump administration is going to do everything they can to pressure the Fed, which they've pretty much seeded with the people that that will be loyal to them, to cut, cut, cut rates even if they're doing so into increasing long-term yields at the back end of the curve. Yeah, I don't think that's smart smarter responsible either, but I do think that's what they're likely to do and I suspect that the reason this market hasn't been that afraid of the oil shock is because traders correctly anticipate that if we get the big really bad economic dislocation on the horizon, it'll probably last a couple of weeks a brief down in the stock market and just like COVID, it won't last that long and while the crisis is still ongoing, we'll break to new all-time highs once again. So, I think that may be the reason the market is not so afraid of this. That's the only explanation I can come up with. Eric, you're certainly right that the semiconductors are overdue for a pullback of some sort, but the bigger question here was Nvidia's earnings yesterday a catalyst. Now, at least in the the pre-markets when we're looking at the outcome, there's very little change in Nvidia and that in itself is a letdown because what a semiconductor melt-up like this needs is momentum and FOMO and things to feed on itself. When you have the single biggest component in the ETF report a stunning earnings and and it's already been baked into the cake in many cases because of all the crowding in that space, if we see that Nvidia is actually fading on its earnings, which is not something we're seeing yet, but if that became the reality, that would start to give indications that that crowding has gotten a little overdone and that in fact, we may in see fading into the weeks to come. Overall though, the S&P has fulfilled a lot of the upside targets towards 7,500 and we have such overextended markets and the breadth of the market remains stuck around 50%. So, you have a lack of participation, a very overextended leadership group that may be a petering out of momentum, and many upside targets already being achieved. At minimum, whether or not this is a reversal point, we can start to conclude that the asymmetry of being long is diminishing. All right, Eric, let's touch on this dollar. Well, Patrick, we finally closed the gap at 99.39 on the Dixie chart as we've been predicting would happen here on MacroVoices for the last several weeks. I think we could easily see a retest of the top of this trading range up at 101, whatever it is. Entirely possible, but ultimately, I think we're going to see much lower Dixie numbers after the straight is finally opened. So, I think the trade here, if you want to trade the dollar, is to maybe give it a little more room to run, and then it's a short after we get to the top of the trading range. Well, Eric, when I look at that chart on the dollar index, this entire pullback over the last month has more or less has been contained to retracement zones, and the euro has structurally remained weak with the fact that we're seeing a real catalyst for the European economy potentially running into recession risks due to rising oil prices and food prices and other things that could certainly create tightness. Uh maybe the euro may very well have a weakening cycle here. If that's the case, with the weighting in the dollar index, that could be all the tailwind that the dollar index needs for a potential retest of its previous high. At this stage, whether the breakout happens or not is the puzzle to solve, but at minimum, the range-bound dollar that looks to have very limited downside on the interim. All right, Eric, let's touch on oil. Well, another week, another peace deal supposedly on the table just hours away as of Wednesday afternoon. The market sitting with baited breath waiting for that final peace announcement to to prices much lower. Okay. As of uh what is it? About just about 4:00 a.m. on Thursday morning as I'm recording, uh no peace deal yet and uh I for one took advantage of Wednesday afternoon's dip. I bought that dip actually by covering my short calls. Our regular listeners will remember that I've got a 100 130 vertical bull call spread on the September and also I I've got some on the December contract as well. Those have already tripled in value since I put them on for less than $2 a spread on those uh September contracts. So, I used some of those built-up profits to just cover the 130 short calls because I want to leave room for Morgan's prediction to come true that we could go well above 130 in the next couple of months if this thing really gets out of hand. Now, that's not a prediction that it will. What should happen here is the White House should be smart enough to recognize as Morgan said, we're out of buffers and safety margins. It's time to cut a deal, uh back off, declare victory, do something, and get the street reopened. But, if uh this continues, if we spend another month, I think Morgan's right. We're headed to 150 plus and I wanted to leave that upside in. So, I bought that dip. I probably should have added to my long futures position at the same time, but for now I'm just covering short calls and I'll continue to buy these supposed peace deal dips each time they happen. Eventually, I'll be wrong, but you know, you only have to get uh a couple of them right before one wrong one uh all just gets washed out in the end. Uh when the street does finally reopen and reopen for real, it's going to be a really big dip. It's going to be down and down hard, and I say that's another great big buy the dip opportunity because it's then going to take much longer than everyone assumes before we get back to normal, and just as Morgan predicted, energy prices, oil prices are going to go up again after that initial relief sell-off as people realize, "Oh, wait, it takes months to clear out the mess that was made in the system." So, I think there's a really big buy the dip opportunity coming. I don't know when that comes, but at some point we will see the strait really and truly reopen. That big dip that happens after that, I say is another big buy the dip opportunity. Well, Eric, when I'm specifically looking at the crude oil July contract, the front month one, it's convenient that the headline of a peace deal came literally the day after the crude oil market printed a higher high on that contract, and we were seeing a potential breakout, and they talked it back down. And that certainly seems to have been the theme over the last couple months, which is as crude oil is rising, we're continuously seeing stories to try to keep things under control. Whether or not we get a peace deal or not is a we're about to find out, but if this was again going to prove to being a non-starter for a peace deal, the crude oil breakout back above the 105 level on that July contract really could set in motion a move back towards that 115 to 120 area. At this stage, of course, if we do get a big headline that that the resolution has come would cause a correction, but I'm at least at this moment remain also skeptical that this is the one and the vulnerability here that oil goes ripping right back up is relatively high. All right, Eric, what are your thoughts here on gold? Well, we're back to every up move in oil is a down move in gold again. For a little while there, it was looking like gold wanted to find a way to recover, but you know, at this point, I think it's really going to continue to operate opposite oil, and if you believe Morgan's predictions, it's probably time to get out of your longs in gold and wait to get back in at a much lower price. The next obvious support level is 4,400, the 200-day moving average, but if we get Morgan's expected outcome, that number is not going to hold, and we've got still lower to come if we're going to go to oil 150-plus. Now, if that happens is oil is topping out, it's going to be time to to go long gold and long gold in a big way, but I think we're quite a ways from being there yet. On the other hand, the weekly RSI, which hasn't been looking at my chart here, hasn't been this oversold since the around September of 2023, is the last time we dipped below the 30 line on the RSI. It was back in September of '23, and we're just right on the hairy edge of it now. So, I don't think we've bottomed yet. There's still a little ways to go, but boy, it's setting up a fantastic buying opportunity in gold when this market bottoms, and I I don't think it's bottomed yet, and there could be quite a ways to go down before it does. Well, Eric, I'm just going to read the tape on the price action of gold. And when you really look back at the last four or five weeks, it has to be getting a failing grade. Overall, every rally has failed, distribution is dominant, and while that you can continuously make a great macro bull case for gold, which I actually long-term and bullish gold, right now at least the price action remains to be very clearly distributive in its nature. Uh we're in some in the midst of some sort of a correction, and there's no reason at this moment to believe that that correction is over. So, I'm on the short-term concern that we're going to still go testing some lower levels, but again, I would view that as one enormous buying opportunity cuz when this correction is over, there will be all of the conditions for gold to have another extraordinary rip higher. All right, Eric, let's touch on uranium here. As our regular listeners know, I remain super duper uber bullish long-term on uranium. But, last week I said, "Okay, I'm getting pretty darn nervous here short-term." Well, that played out exactly as expected. We're down what, 10 bucks on URA since last week. It's just been a very, very soft uranium market. Quite a few of the individual issues, I'm just looking at my various charts between NextGen and Denison. It looks like Denison is right on its 200-day moving average. URA is below it. NextGen is a little bit above it. But, we're getting the big 200-day test. In the past, 200-day moving average tests on the uranium issues have been great buying opportunities. So, there's definitely an argument that we're already bottoming. And this is your buy the dip moment. But, frankly, given seasonality patterns in this market, I'm not rushing to buy this dip. At this point, we're into the soft season in uranium miners. It's normally as we're just coming up on the WNA conference in London in early September. So, around the end of August is when the market usually is ready to really start to rip higher if that's what it's going to do through buying season. I think sitting this one out maybe until I'm not selling my positions, but I'm not rushing to buy the dip, either. If I'm going to buy something, I'll probably wait until August to to do any more buying in this sector. Unless we get some serious movement in the spot price and there's a reason to think that momentum is starting to build. But, based on what I'm seeing right now, I'm probably not going to rush to buy this 200-day test. Well, Eric, when I look at the uh uranium charts of the equities, the fact that they failed to hold a breakout and uh quickly redistributed back down below their moving averages and and basically reclaimed previous lows, we have a situation where overall there's no sign that uranium stocks are in being accumulated here. And again, while we uh can anchor off these great fundamental stories of uranium, as of this moment, we're not seeing investors voting with their money uh and demonstrating that uh they're ready to take uranium to the next level higher. Overall, it seems like a very quiet market, and uh I would uh anticipate more of the same until a bigger catalyst actually regains the attention of uranium by investors. Patrick, before we wrap up this week's show, let's hit that 10-year Treasury note chart. Eric, like we have uh clearly a huge breakout. I mean, uh it's not uh crazy cuz we haven't cleared the 2025 highs in that kind of uh 465 to 480 level above, but this has been the first time in in a year that we have seen serious stress on interest rates. Uh and while we've uh not broken to fresh new highs, when you go to the 30-year yields, we have cleared uh some very key hurdles, which is certainly creating some overall nervousness about uh what where are the next levels for interest rates and bonds. The one thing that uh I think is also telling is the fact that those uh the rip is not just in the US uh 30-year yield. In in that case, when you look at the euro 30-year bonds, the yield was pressing fresh new highs. The United Kingdom 30-year uh government bonds were uh ripping to fresh new highs, and obviously a huge uh rip higher in the Japanese 30-year yield. So, we are seeing uh the structural uh interest rate market around the world all rising. Obviously starting to price some inflation fears into them. And the question really becomes, when do the breaking bond markets uh, start to impact equity prices? Up until now, the equity markets have been brushing it off, and I guess the puzzle to solve is will we see a point uh, where interest rates and bonds will matter? Folks, if you enjoy Patrick's Chart Decks, you can get them every single day of the week with a free trial of Big Picture Trading. The details are on the last pages of the slide deck, or just go to bigpicturetrading.com. Patrick, tell them what they can expect to find in this week's research roundup. Well, in this week's research roundup, you're going to find the transcript for today's interview, as well as the trade of the week chart book we just discussed here in the post game, including a number of links to articles that we found interesting. You're going to find this link and so much more in this week's research roundup. That does it for this week's episode. We appreciate all the feedback and support we get from our listeners, and we're always looking for suggestions on how we can make the program even better. Now, for those of our listeners that write or blog about the markets and would like to share that content with our listeners, send us an email at researchroundup@macrovoices.com, and we will consider it for our weekly distributions. If you have not already, follow our main account on X @macrovoices for all the most recent updates and releases. You can also follow Eric on X @erics.townsend, that's Eric spelled with a K. You can also follow me @patrickceresna. On behalf of Eric Townsend and myself, thanks for listening, and we'll see you all next week. That concludes this edition of MacroVoices. Be sure to tune in each week to hear feature interviews with the brightest minds in finance and macroeconomics. 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Trade of The Week – MacroVoices #533
Summary
Download Big Picture Trading Chartbook : https://bit.ly/4uqG7nW ✓Sign up for a FREE 14-day trial at Big Picture Trading: …Transcript
Now, back to your hosts, Eric [music] Townsend and Patrick Ceresna. Eric, it was great to have Morgan on the show. Now, listeners, you're going to find the download link for this week's trade of the week in your research roundup email. If you don't have a research roundup email, it means you have not yet registered on macrovoices.com. Just go to our homepage and look for that red button over Morgan's picture saying looking for the download. Patrick, for this week's trade of the week, Morgan Downey argues that this oil shock may have consequences well beyond the next headline. So, how do you position for the bigger aftermath story? Morgan Downey's core point was that the market may be too focused on the next headline around a potential peace deal, while missing the much larger aftermath story. The next short-term move in crude may very well hinge on whether the Strait of Hormuz crisis de-escalates or flares back up, but the bigger investment theme is that the global energy infrastructure has just been exposed as more fragile than markets assumed. Even if the shooting stops tomorrow, Morgan emphasized that restarting flows, rebuilding confidence, turning wells back on, restoring tanker traffic, and hardening the system against future disruptions could take months and in some cases years. So, rather than trying to trade the next tick in crude oil, this week's trade of the week is about positioning for the energy resilience rebuild through oilfield services. From a trade construction standpoint, the challenge is that the oilfield services trade has already moved aggressively. The Spider S&P Oil and Gas Equipment and Services ETF, ticker XES, is trading around $132.15, but it has already rallied roughly 72% year-to-date, leaving it vulnerable to a sharp pullback if short-term peace headlines may take pressure off crude. So, rather than taking a full delta one exposure on the ETF, I want to use the longer-dated call option to stay involved in the broader energy resilience thesis while defining a capital at risk. Specifically, the structure buys the December 18th, 2026 $135 strike call trading around $14.25 with roughly 211 days to expiration and a delta near 53 cents. That gives the trade meaningful upside participation if the oil field services thesis continues to develop while limiting downside exposure during a correction. And if we do get a sharp pullback, the option structure provides flexibility to roll down strikes and reposition into the weakness rather than absorbing the full drawdown of the ETF itself. From a payoff perspective, the maximum risk is limited to $14.25 premium paid while the upside remains open above the $135 strike. The goal is to use the call as a defined risk way of maintaining exposure to oil field services upside while preserving flexibility to adjust, roll down, and or add exposure if a short-term peace headline created a tactical correction. Patrick, every Monday at Big Picture Trading, your webinar explains how retail investors can put on our most recent trade of the week. For those listeners that want to explore how to put on these trades in greater detail, don't miss out on a 14-day free trial at bigpicturetrading.com. Now, let's dive into the post-game chart deck. All right, Eric, let's dive into these equity markets. Well, Patrick, this semiconductor-driven rally in the S&P seems to be stalling or at least pausing here. I'm not sure what comes next if we're going to rally even more from here, but we're certainly overdue for just for a cyclical pullback and not even necessarily a reversal or a crash or anything like that, but this has gone too far, too fast in a straight line. So, we ought to have at least some Fibonacci retracement, you know, take out 38.2 to 50% of this rally, maybe back down to 7,000 or so or 7,200 and you know, some someplace well below the current 74 40 that I'm looking at at recording time. A couple of 100 points down would be entirely normal here even if the bull market remains intact and I think there's plenty of arguments to say that it doesn't necessarily need to stay intact. So, I I think we're overdue for a pullback. I would say, however, that I'm reframing my big picture view of this market. I think a lot of our listeners know I've been just scratching my head trying to figure out how we're rallying to new all-time highs when it's so clear that we're in the middle of the biggest shock to the oil market that's ever happened. I I think the answer is really pretty simple. It's because the market is anticipating that no matter how bad it gets, it's just going to bring that much more stimulus. Now, I know what many of you are thinking. No, no, no, wait, it works differently. If it's a oil price driven shock, that means that we're going to be dealing with a big inflation risk and they won't be able to stimulate. Well, look, if it's as big as Morgan Downey says it is, then it's not going to stay in inflation shock, it's going to become deflationary as we start to the global economy. And in an election year, you better believe that the Trump administration is going to do everything they can to pressure the Fed, which they've pretty much seeded with the people that that will be loyal to them, to cut, cut, cut rates even if they're doing so into increasing long-term yields at the back end of the curve. Yeah, I don't think that's smart smarter responsible either, but I do think that's what they're likely to do and I suspect that the reason this market hasn't been that afraid of the oil shock is because traders correctly anticipate that if we get the big really bad economic dislocation on the horizon, it'll probably last a couple of weeks a brief down in the stock market and just like COVID, it won't last that long and while the crisis is still ongoing, we'll break to new all-time highs once again. So, I think that may be the reason the market is not so afraid of this. That's the only explanation I can come up with. Eric, you're certainly right that the semiconductors are overdue for a pullback of some sort, but the bigger question here was Nvidia's earnings yesterday a catalyst. Now, at least in the the pre-markets when we're looking at the outcome, there's very little change in Nvidia and that in itself is a letdown because what a semiconductor melt-up like this needs is momentum and FOMO and things to feed on itself. When you have the single biggest component in the ETF report a stunning earnings and and it's already been baked into the cake in many cases because of all the crowding in that space, if we see that Nvidia is actually fading on its earnings, which is not something we're seeing yet, but if that became the reality, that would start to give indications that that crowding has gotten a little overdone and that in fact, we may in see fading into the weeks to come. Overall though, the S&P has fulfilled a lot of the upside targets towards 7,500 and we have such overextended markets and the breadth of the market remains stuck around 50%. So, you have a lack of participation, a very overextended leadership group that may be a petering out of momentum, and many upside targets already being achieved. At minimum, whether or not this is a reversal point, we can start to conclude that the asymmetry of being long is diminishing. All right, Eric, let's touch on this dollar. Well, Patrick, we finally closed the gap at 99.39 on the Dixie chart as we've been predicting would happen here on MacroVoices for the last several weeks. I think we could easily see a retest of the top of this trading range up at 101, whatever it is. Entirely possible, but ultimately, I think we're going to see much lower Dixie numbers after the straight is finally opened. So, I think the trade here, if you want to trade the dollar, is to maybe give it a little more room to run, and then it's a short after we get to the top of the trading range. Well, Eric, when I look at that chart on the dollar index, this entire pullback over the last month has more or less has been contained to retracement zones, and the euro has structurally remained weak with the fact that we're seeing a real catalyst for the European economy potentially running into recession risks due to rising oil prices and food prices and other things that could certainly create tightness. Uh maybe the euro may very well have a weakening cycle here. If that's the case, with the weighting in the dollar index, that could be all the tailwind that the dollar index needs for a potential retest of its previous high. At this stage, whether the breakout happens or not is the puzzle to solve, but at minimum, the range-bound dollar that looks to have very limited downside on the interim. All right, Eric, let's touch on oil. Well, another week, another peace deal supposedly on the table just hours away as of Wednesday afternoon. The market sitting with baited breath waiting for that final peace announcement to to prices much lower. Okay. As of uh what is it? About just about 4:00 a.m. on Thursday morning as I'm recording, uh no peace deal yet and uh I for one took advantage of Wednesday afternoon's dip. I bought that dip actually by covering my short calls. Our regular listeners will remember that I've got a 100 130 vertical bull call spread on the September and also I I've got some on the December contract as well. Those have already tripled in value since I put them on for less than $2 a spread on those uh September contracts. So, I used some of those built-up profits to just cover the 130 short calls because I want to leave room for Morgan's prediction to come true that we could go well above 130 in the next couple of months if this thing really gets out of hand. Now, that's not a prediction that it will. What should happen here is the White House should be smart enough to recognize as Morgan said, we're out of buffers and safety margins. It's time to cut a deal, uh back off, declare victory, do something, and get the street reopened. But, if uh this continues, if we spend another month, I think Morgan's right. We're headed to 150 plus and I wanted to leave that upside in. So, I bought that dip. I probably should have added to my long futures position at the same time, but for now I'm just covering short calls and I'll continue to buy these supposed peace deal dips each time they happen. Eventually, I'll be wrong, but you know, you only have to get uh a couple of them right before one wrong one uh all just gets washed out in the end. Uh when the street does finally reopen and reopen for real, it's going to be a really big dip. It's going to be down and down hard, and I say that's another great big buy the dip opportunity because it's then going to take much longer than everyone assumes before we get back to normal, and just as Morgan predicted, energy prices, oil prices are going to go up again after that initial relief sell-off as people realize, "Oh, wait, it takes months to clear out the mess that was made in the system." So, I think there's a really big buy the dip opportunity coming. I don't know when that comes, but at some point we will see the strait really and truly reopen. That big dip that happens after that, I say is another big buy the dip opportunity. Well, Eric, when I'm specifically looking at the crude oil July contract, the front month one, it's convenient that the headline of a peace deal came literally the day after the crude oil market printed a higher high on that contract, and we were seeing a potential breakout, and they talked it back down. And that certainly seems to have been the theme over the last couple months, which is as crude oil is rising, we're continuously seeing stories to try to keep things under control. Whether or not we get a peace deal or not is a we're about to find out, but if this was again going to prove to being a non-starter for a peace deal, the crude oil breakout back above the 105 level on that July contract really could set in motion a move back towards that 115 to 120 area. At this stage, of course, if we do get a big headline that that the resolution has come would cause a correction, but I'm at least at this moment remain also skeptical that this is the one and the vulnerability here that oil goes ripping right back up is relatively high. All right, Eric, what are your thoughts here on gold? Well, we're back to every up move in oil is a down move in gold again. For a little while there, it was looking like gold wanted to find a way to recover, but you know, at this point, I think it's really going to continue to operate opposite oil, and if you believe Morgan's predictions, it's probably time to get out of your longs in gold and wait to get back in at a much lower price. The next obvious support level is 4,400, the 200-day moving average, but if we get Morgan's expected outcome, that number is not going to hold, and we've got still lower to come if we're going to go to oil 150-plus. Now, if that happens is oil is topping out, it's going to be time to to go long gold and long gold in a big way, but I think we're quite a ways from being there yet. On the other hand, the weekly RSI, which hasn't been looking at my chart here, hasn't been this oversold since the around September of 2023, is the last time we dipped below the 30 line on the RSI. It was back in September of '23, and we're just right on the hairy edge of it now. So, I don't think we've bottomed yet. There's still a little ways to go, but boy, it's setting up a fantastic buying opportunity in gold when this market bottoms, and I I don't think it's bottomed yet, and there could be quite a ways to go down before it does. Well, Eric, I'm just going to read the tape on the price action of gold. And when you really look back at the last four or five weeks, it has to be getting a failing grade. Overall, every rally has failed, distribution is dominant, and while that you can continuously make a great macro bull case for gold, which I actually long-term and bullish gold, right now at least the price action remains to be very clearly distributive in its nature. Uh we're in some in the midst of some sort of a correction, and there's no reason at this moment to believe that that correction is over. So, I'm on the short-term concern that we're going to still go testing some lower levels, but again, I would view that as one enormous buying opportunity cuz when this correction is over, there will be all of the conditions for gold to have another extraordinary rip higher. All right, Eric, let's touch on uranium here. As our regular listeners know, I remain super duper uber bullish long-term on uranium. But, last week I said, "Okay, I'm getting pretty darn nervous here short-term." Well, that played out exactly as expected. We're down what, 10 bucks on URA since last week. It's just been a very, very soft uranium market. Quite a few of the individual issues, I'm just looking at my various charts between NextGen and Denison. It looks like Denison is right on its 200-day moving average. URA is below it. NextGen is a little bit above it. But, we're getting the big 200-day test. In the past, 200-day moving average tests on the uranium issues have been great buying opportunities. So, there's definitely an argument that we're already bottoming. And this is your buy the dip moment. But, frankly, given seasonality patterns in this market, I'm not rushing to buy this dip. At this point, we're into the soft season in uranium miners. It's normally as we're just coming up on the WNA conference in London in early September. So, around the end of August is when the market usually is ready to really start to rip higher if that's what it's going to do through buying season. I think sitting this one out maybe until I'm not selling my positions, but I'm not rushing to buy the dip, either. If I'm going to buy something, I'll probably wait until August to to do any more buying in this sector. Unless we get some serious movement in the spot price and there's a reason to think that momentum is starting to build. But, based on what I'm seeing right now, I'm probably not going to rush to buy this 200-day test. Well, Eric, when I look at the uh uranium charts of the equities, the fact that they failed to hold a breakout and uh quickly redistributed back down below their moving averages and and basically reclaimed previous lows, we have a situation where overall there's no sign that uranium stocks are in being accumulated here. And again, while we uh can anchor off these great fundamental stories of uranium, as of this moment, we're not seeing investors voting with their money uh and demonstrating that uh they're ready to take uranium to the next level higher. Overall, it seems like a very quiet market, and uh I would uh anticipate more of the same until a bigger catalyst actually regains the attention of uranium by investors. Patrick, before we wrap up this week's show, let's hit that 10-year Treasury note chart. Eric, like we have uh clearly a huge breakout. I mean, uh it's not uh crazy cuz we haven't cleared the 2025 highs in that kind of uh 465 to 480 level above, but this has been the first time in in a year that we have seen serious stress on interest rates. Uh and while we've uh not broken to fresh new highs, when you go to the 30-year yields, we have cleared uh some very key hurdles, which is certainly creating some overall nervousness about uh what where are the next levels for interest rates and bonds. The one thing that uh I think is also telling is the fact that those uh the rip is not just in the US uh 30-year yield. In in that case, when you look at the euro 30-year bonds, the yield was pressing fresh new highs. The United Kingdom 30-year uh government bonds were uh ripping to fresh new highs, and obviously a huge uh rip higher in the Japanese 30-year yield. So, we are seeing uh the structural uh interest rate market around the world all rising. Obviously starting to price some inflation fears into them. And the question really becomes, when do the breaking bond markets uh, start to impact equity prices? Up until now, the equity markets have been brushing it off, and I guess the puzzle to solve is will we see a point uh, where interest rates and bonds will matter? Folks, if you enjoy Patrick's Chart Decks, you can get them every single day of the week with a free trial of Big Picture Trading. The details are on the last pages of the slide deck, or just go to bigpicturetrading.com. Patrick, tell them what they can expect to find in this week's research roundup. Well, in this week's research roundup, you're going to find the transcript for today's interview, as well as the trade of the week chart book we just discussed here in the post game, including a number of links to articles that we found interesting. You're going to find this link and so much more in this week's research roundup. That does it for this week's episode. We appreciate all the feedback and support we get from our listeners, and we're always looking for suggestions on how we can make the program even better. Now, for those of our listeners that write or blog about the markets and would like to share that content with our listeners, send us an email at researchroundup@macrovoices.com, and we will consider it for our weekly distributions. If you have not already, follow our main account on X @macrovoices for all the most recent updates and releases. You can also follow Eric on X @erics.townsend, that's Eric spelled with a K. You can also follow me @patrickceresna. On behalf of Eric Townsend and myself, thanks for listening, and we'll see you all next week. That concludes this edition of MacroVoices. Be sure to tune in each week to hear feature interviews with the brightest minds in finance and macroeconomics. 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