Trader Called Gold Price Explosion; Now Has Shocking Update | Gary Wagner
Summary
Gold Market Dynamics: Gary Wagner discusses the recent parabolic move in gold prices, emphasizing the role of an accommodative Federal Reserve and predicting potential corrections despite maintaining a bullish outlook.
Price Targets and Predictions: Wagner had initially set a target for gold at $3,800, which was surpassed, leading him to adjust his forecast to a potential range of $4,100 to $4,200, while also anticipating possible corrections.
Technical Analysis: Using Fibonacci retracement and candlestick charts, Wagner analyzes gold's price movements, highlighting periods of consolidation and the potential for corrections based on historical patterns.
Silver Market Insights: Silver has lagged behind gold in reaching all-time highs, with recent movements showing consolidation around $47 to $48.5, and Wagner expects potential corrections before any significant breakout.
Comparative Performance: Over the past year, silver has slightly outperformed gold in percentage terms, but Wagner notes that silver typically exhibits greater volatility, leading to larger percentage changes in both gains and declines.
Macro Influences: The discussion highlights the impact of macroeconomic factors such as Federal Reserve policies and inflation expectations on gold and silver prices, with potential interest rate cuts being a key driver for future movements.
Investment Strategy: Wagner advises monitoring fundamental events over technical levels for future price movements, suggesting that while corrections are expected, the long-term bullish trend remains intact.
Transcript
This is as near of a parabolic move as we have seen. Gold has moved as high as it has and as quickly as it has is the belief of a extremely accommodative accommodative a Federal Reserve. >> Let me ask you Gary if let's say gold in your words breaks above your upside target again like a freight train what do you do in that situation? That's twice in a row. I'm very pleased to welcome back to the show Gary Wagner, editor of the goldfor.com. Gary has pretty much nailed gold's run by magnitude and timing. We're going to get his outlook now, his updated outlook now that gold is at $4,000 and silver is just at just under 50. It's historic high. It's at $49 an ounce. Welcome back to the show, Gary. Congrat congratulations on your successful calls over the last couple of months. Well, thank you very much and it's great to be back with you and uh share what we can with our listening audience. Yeah, thanks. >> So, let's recap what you had talked about on my show. Last time you're on, which was late August, August 27th. Check out our interview with Gary, late August. Link down below. Back then, you had called back then, it wasn't even that long ago. It was 6 weeks, not even. You had called for the upside target of gold to be at 37 to 3,800. You had called for the breakout to happen anytime within the next 2 to 3 weeks on the back of a Fed cut. That's exactly what happened. The only thing that didn't really happen according to your expectations was that gold exceeded your upside by $200, which is not an insignificant insignificant amount of time. Sorry, insignificant amount by magnitude by gold standards is what I meant to say. So, let's recap first of all why you got the timing right, what went right in your opinion, and why gold moved even faster than what you initially expected. >> Absolutely. Unquestionably, when I was looking at this and when we spoke about a month ago, I had my targets, but I greatly underestimated the speed and pace in which it would hit those numbers. Um, I'm always happy when I undersshoot a target rather than overshoot a target. In other words, if I was calling for $5,000 per ounce gold, that would be quite disappointing. If I undersshoot it or get the timing off, that's just the market. The market is not going to react to what I said. It it's whether or not you can correctly anticipate where it might go. The timing is always uh a little bit more difficult to nail um in terms of the pace in which we will see uh gold prices rise. Yeah. >> Because it's risen a lot faster than what you initially expected. Are you more bearish now? Are you concerned? basically about this this pace of move. >> Well, actually in in my sense I believe that a correction would be a warranted and not change my overall bullish demeanor. In other words, typically a market that is in a very strong rally mode, uh, bullish undertones is going to have periods of price ascent and periods of either consolidation or corrections, and that's to be expected. If you get a market that moves parabolic, and this was near parabolic in terms of the move, then we look for a hard correction down. So, I not so much welcome a price correction, but I think that that is a necessary component in a market in which you don't have an unrealistic move to the upside. That's an overreaction. Um, so I'm very comfortable with what we're seeing gold do. I think that um if we would have talked about gold at $4,000 per ounce two months ago, I think that that was honestly off of my radar as well as many analysts. Um, unquestionably with gold, it's not a matter of when it will get to or if it will get to a certain price, but when. Uh, timing is always something that is much more difficult to anticipate and to nail. I'm always looking for price targets to be hit, but the timing, gold's going to react in the way it does and the timeline that it does. >> Can we pull up a chart, please, Gary? And I want to just revisit your last call. I want to see how uh you drew the conclusion that gold would hit 3,700 by to 3,800. And then um where I'm going with this is I want to see uh the pattern in which gold moved and how much it's broken above your initial expectation. Is there a historical precedent by uh by which gold has broken your expectation to the upside by this amount? And then we'll see what happened if that has happened in the past. Yeah, >> sure. Well, I brought up a a daily standard Japanese candlestick chart of gold. And I'm looking at what's called a Fibonacci retracement from 3,300 and that occurred uh during the last week of June. And what we saw really was a small rally up and then an actual correction. This would have been about a 50% correction from this initial move. And what happened was the trend got so strong that we would see gold ascend. So it ascends from uh $3,360 up to about $3670 and then you rather than getting a correction you get consolidation or sideways market moves in which during that time period so for example on uh Monday September the 15th it tested uh certain levels but couldn't break it. When the breakout did come, which started on the 19th of September, it ran from 3685 up to about 37.85. So, you had a really strong move in a short period of time and then a short period of consolidation. So, you're getting the market running up to uh new all-time record highs because this is all uncharted territory. And rather than getting a correction, you get consolidation. It basically trades sideways for a period and then goes and makes a new level. You get a short period here of only four trading days. Sideways up to a new level, a a new record high at around 38.887. 3 days of consolidation and then this last move. On this last move, what what is interesting is that the move down today was fairly sizable in terms of price change. uh down about $65. It's now trading in Australia. That's what that little line represents right here is the market now trading overseas in Australia. And so it opened a little bit below the closing price of today and we'll have to see if you genuinely get uh more of some downside pressure. My sense is with such a strong move from 3,300 up to 4 4,000 a little bit over that you've had a $700 upside move. So acceptable correction would easily be about a 23.6% retracement and that would take gold to around 3890. a deeper retracement and it's still a shallow correction because we can easily see in a bull market a correction of uh 61.8 and then still be bullish. We can uh go ahead and this would be the 78 right here. And so you could see it go deeper, but it's I don't believe it's going to. I think that a retracement at this level, if we do see it retrace, and I would expect it to is going to probably go to about 3890 and then trade sideways and then maybe move back up. It's all going to be based on the fundamentals that have been driving the market. if they continue uh to be prevalent in the market. That's what's going to drive the price of gold. Not technical levels, but fundamental events. >> Gold has been on a tear this year, hitting all-time highs, and the outlook remains strong. Today's sponsor, First Mining Gold, is a Canadian gold company with two major development projects in Canada. The most advanced, the Spring Pole Gold Project, is a multi-million ounce gold development project located in northwestern Ontario. and the Dupac gold project. Another multi-million ounce gold project is located in the prolific Abatibi gold belt of Quebec capable of producing 300,000 ounces of gold per year at very attractive all-in sustaining costs. 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You can learn more about the company in the link down below or scan the QR code here. Gary, can we pull up a longer term gold price chart and then uh I'll I'll ask you something about that because you brought up consolidation and I want to point out how gold has consolidated in the past and and uh ask you why it's not really doing the same thing now. Um so if we >> Well, when you say long I've switched to a weekly chart. >> Five to six years. Yeah. >> Oh, five to six years. >> Yes. that we're going to really have to uh >> we've you and I have been working together for quite some time now, Gary. We I think interviewing you in 2020. >> I remember the themes back then, you know, let's let's wait for a gold breakout. What's going to what's going to sustain this gold momentum? What will cause what will be the trigger for the breakout either to the upside or the downside? Remember those conversations? And it makes sense because between 2020 to 2022 when I first started working with you, gold was trading in a rangebound in a range. And gold has historically, if you look all the way back, gold has historically in most situations, except for a few dramatic bull runs, traded within a range and then moved up slowly. Over the last two years, however, the tone of our conversations have shifted dramatically. Now, I'm asking you, gee, it's moved up a lot. Has it moved up too fast? These are the conversations I've asked you in 2020. Has gold fundamentally changed its role for the investor? Has there been a paradigm shift? Whether uh rather than being a safe, stable, slowly moving asset like what it was doing in 2020, 2021, now it's moving parabolic parabolically upwards, it's up 25% just in the just in the last couple of weeks since 2024. I'm looking at my screen, it's up 124%. That's not something you would attribute as let's say a safe haven asset by definition, right? >> Uh typically not. Typically not. The acceleration uh really from about September to present we've seen gold move tremendously to the upside because back this is a much longer term chart in which we are looking at monthly candles. So, I'm almost best to look at weekly and just compress the chart. >> And and I bring this up because a lot of people in the gold space are looking at the same charts that we're looking at now and they're getting scared. They're using the word I'm scared because gold is not used to moving at such a quick pace. >> Well, we've we've seen it happen before. Uh look at it this way. We're looking at very long-term candles. Each candle uh represents a week of trading. And you can see that we've had consecutive green candles, which is simply saying that the closing price on Friday is above the opening price on Monday. You've had consecutive candles now, I believe, for the seventh week in a row, eighth week in a row, which is not that typical. We've seen that kind of action, but not consecutive weeks. Here you get that, but the move is not as great in terms of price differential. And here is more what you would expect. In other words, a solid week of gains, uh, consolidation the next week, another new price high because these are all record highs as gold ascended from 2000 up to nearly 4,000. And if we compress this a little bit, you'll see that gold has had a solid move to the upside. But what you're talking about is correct. If you look back between the years of 2015, let's say, and 2019, you had a very, very narrow trading range in which it really wasn't ascending to new levels and then consolidating and ascending. You're getting that now. So, if we look back to what happened in 2019, gold's at 1,200. It runs up to 2,000 and then corrects back down to 1,600. That's a fairly normal correction. Then you had this move to 2000 and it went sideways for a good period of time and this acceleration that you're talking about, it is really pronounced now because you have rarely rarely seen this many weeks in which you had nice size green candles, meaning a big differential between the open on Monday and the close on Friday. and consecutive green candles. We've gotten that before, but not as many weeks. And so, this is as near of a parabolic move as we have seen in quite some time, if ever. >> So, how do you gauge momentum using the technicals? How do you determine if these green candles will continue to stay green or if the momentum is slowing down? >> Well, one way you can do that is you convert the candlestick into a hankenashi. A hankenashi. They look very very similar. They're still candlestick like. The key difference is the opening price on a Japanese candlestick chart is the true open. On a hankenashi chart, which is what I've pulled up, the opening price is derived from the midpoint of the prior candle. That's why it's kind of a average chart. And so what you want to look at is a body size and b whether or not there is a lower wick. And the lower wick is very important because the absence of a lower wick on an uptrend means that at no point during the trading cycle, so if these are weekly candles, at no point during the week did gold prices trade to or below the midpoint of the prior candle. And you can see that for the last six consecutive weeks, we have gotten just that. Now, we've gotten that before, but typically you don't have as large of body sizes as we're getting now because if you look back to uh March 2025, gold's at around 2890 and then by the time this rally is over, it is over at about 32 to 3,100. you only got very large body size on the hankenashi for the last two cycles and then it really traded with an upside bias sideways and we've got an accelerated move to the upside and that's what is so unusual and typically when you have a strong parabolic move up as you just mentioned rightfully so you typically get a strong quick correction when that does occur >> market Tops and bottoms are usually impossible to call. Uh, but if I were to ask you for a top, how would you go about answering that question, Gary? >> They they are near impossible to call. I was initially my target was 3,800. That got taken out like a like a runaway freight train, so to speak. It quickly moved from 3600 to about 38. And let me move this back to a regular candlestick chart because you don't get true opens and closes. Um, you can see that the body size has increased over these last two cycles or weeks. We had gains all the way through, but these were small gains. Uh, the week beginning Monday, September the 8th, very, very small gain. The week beginning on the 15th, the week beginning on the 22nd. these last two weeks and of course this week is coming to a conclusion it's not over yet but you've had huge movements and you really I mean the top I I had called for was 3800 so what do you do when that target is taken out as it was well you re-evaluate where it could go upside potential to me is anywhere between 41 and 4200 if it continues to move up that would be my upside breakout out target. I don't think that if we get a correction that it will be a longlasting in terms of time, but it could be a fairly deep correction. We could see pricing go from it went from 30 3370 up to this all-time record high above 4,000 4,076. It would came back down during this same week at around 39.990, which tells me that on a technical basis, our resistance level is at $4,000 per ounce only because it's backed off. And when we look at these other candles, you can see this upper wick um last week was very short. the prior week they're very very short um upper wicks telling you that the closing price was very very near the intra week high of that candle and the same with last week. This week it's different. We had this exaggerated high 476 and now it is back below 4,000 at about 3985. So 4,000 is definitely what we're looking at in terms of resistance. I've already told you where I think gold could go if it continues to go higher, but I'm on the lookout for some sort of correction simply because the rally that began on the week of um Monday the 18th of August has been so strong, so dynamic and the fact that when you look even longterm, you do get periods of time where you have consecutive green candles, in other words, consistently seeing closes on Friday above Monday's open, but you typically don't get a lot of consecutive candles. You did here, but nothing like what we've seen recently. This is a tremendous move considering that back in the middle of August, gold was at 3,300 and now we've tested 4,000 and are trading right below it. >> Let me ask you, Gary, if let's say gold, in your words, breaks above your upside target again like a freight train, what do you do in that situation? That's twice in a row. If it happens, I'm not saying it will. Would you update your forecast to even more on the upside where at that point would you say, "All right, enough's enough. It's time to take profits." >> Well, there's a difference between the question of is it time to take profits or do can we anticipate where it could go and if so, how much higher could it get there? When you are in uncharted territory, which we have been and are definitely in, this is a week after week, consecutive weeks of closes above the open on Monday and definitely the close on Friday. This is a lot of time to have these consecutive gains that are coming in. So, it's near impossible to call a top. I think that we could see gold move back and reach challenge above 4,000. But we can see that at least the size of this wick. And the wick is simply the differential between current pricing, which is the top of this candle, and the top of the wick. The top of the wick is $4,070 and current pricing is at $39.90. So an $80 differential in a oneweek period of time in which it tested this level and came back down. We haven't seen that kind of activity during this rally whatsoever. Which tells me this is the first week in which gold has challenged a new all-time record close and intra week high and then backed off of that because we weren't getting that from the middle of August up until last week. Last week you had a large candle opening at 3790 and then closing at 3900. That's a huge move. And then this week it has definitely backed off because the round number of 4,000 or 3,000 the what I call century mark so to speak. We've really backed off of that. So now we can say with quite a good amount of confidence that resistance starts above $4,000 in gold. So, if we saw a break, let's say next week above 4,000. We already know where resistance is. It's roughly at 4,070 to 4,080. And we would want to see if it can test that. And if it tests that, the question is, does it close near that level? because we this this week we saw an incredible intraweek high $4,70 but then a huge backing off of price during the week back down below $4,000 to current pricing. >> What macro forces would need to stay in place for buying of gold to continue? Well, besides the fundamentals, which is um perceived Federal Reserve action, uh whether or not they're going to implement uh interest rate cuts, which is been getting factored into current pricing, the the rise here is anticipating that the Fed is going to be much more accommodative and implement two interest rate cuts at the final two FOMC meetings this year. And that's already factored in. That's part of why gold has moved as high as it has and as quickly as it has is the belief of a extremely accommodative accommodative Federal Reserve. If that is what actually unfolds as we go into these meetings, uh then you could see consolidation, you could see a market correction. What's amazing to me is that this path, if you even look back to the beginning of the year in January, gold's at $6,300 and then by May it's at $3,200. And then if you look at these last 7, eight weeks, they have been tremendous. We've seen it before. We saw it back in January. But these weekly moves in terms of price differential between the opening price on Monday and the closing price on Friday were much smaller than what we're seeing now. We've seen gold move up and then go sideways with the bias to the downside. But this is a very rare occurrence to have new all-time record closing prices on a weekly basis and then that's followed by a higher opening price the following Monday. And that's what we've seen for the last 8 weeks. >> I I'm just musing you here, but um it strikes me that we haven't adjusted for inflation. These are nominal values, not real growth of the gold price. Perhaps we have seen this pattern before. Um I I I like to do this analysis at some point and maybe share with you next time. You know I I I did a while ago I did a gold price to go big mac index and the idea is let's say how let's see how gold price divided by so basically how many big macs can you can you buy with 1 ounce of gold um a and um the idea is to see how a standardized good like a big mac uh that's standardized around the world using US prices um moves relative to the price of gold. So let's say if if the line is relatively constant, then you know that gold is basically keeping up. We're moving alongside uh the uh the change in price of real goods like a Big Mac. Um but if it's moving way above or even going down, then you'll know that it's kind of moving on its own. I I like to see how gold has performed in real terms because we have to factor in that there has been massive inflation in the last couple years. And so um maybe inflation adjusted gold is not is just doing what it's always been doing. Um let's see because remember during the time when we spoke in 2020 um that was just around COVID and then 2021 happened there was massive QE and massive inflation gold spiked before then from 2010 to 2019. um well I wasn't in the industry at the time but the inflation rate was still relatively low and so gold price between 2010 to 2019 stayed relatively flat and it's only in recent years when inflation has been just wild that we starting to see wild moves exponentially for gold. So I I like to see the inflation adjusted. What do you think? Well, from what we have seen, the anticipation uh the anticipated inflation levels haven't been reached. Uh we're seeing inflation, but much less significant than many of the analysts were calling for. And the buying power as you say, how many how many Big Macs can you buy for X amount of gold is a very valid way to approach it because you've got a constant through time. And so that I can't address cuz I don't know what the price of a of a Big Mac is. I'd like to know what your findings are. Has has it kept a pace at all over time? >> It has. when I did it a couple years ago, it has started it has outperformed. So when go when there's a lot of gold buying, you can see that gold is moving even above inflation, far beating the CPI index rate of change um when there's massive buying. And then when there isn't, it's just kind of moving along um and either staying flat or not even remember in 2010 it was 2010 to 2019 most years it was flat. So it wasn't even beating CPI most of in most of that decade. Um, but anyway, a conversation for another time. Let's move on to silver. We have to talk about silver. Before we talk about silver, uh, comment down below where you think gold is going to go next. I'd like to get uh the audience's reaction and and and perception of what the market's doing. And as always, if you like the content, subscribe to my channel and go check out Gary's work as well. Link down below. Check out his channel as well. All right, Gary, let's pull up silver. Silver's up to $50, almost 49. It's touched 49 twice. only twice in the last 50 years. Now, I want to ask you before we get to your silver price forecast, why has silver taken so long to catch up to its all-time highs when gold has been breaking all-time highs for basically two and a half years straight? Um I think the primary reason is that when we look at gold that seems to be the standard in terms of a safe haven that's an inflationary hedge where silver isn't perceived to have the same kind of weight in that way. When we look at the recent move in silver you can see that back as recently as the beginning of August silver's at $36. And if we look back, let me compress this chart. You've got to go back quite a ways to see what we were witnessing. We had 32, 33, 33. These were absolute tops that silver couldn't break. We've consistently seen silver for the last few years. Fine. We had a period in time when silver had come down and then actually hit 26 but then quickly retraced to 17. And then you have this almost triple top, absolutely a double top of silver at $26. This is back in December uh 2023. It makes a new top at 32 and then another one at 34 October of 2024 and then again in April of 2025 it corrects and then you get these new levels $39. But then you get a parabolic move in silver from about $37. And what's interesting to me is the intraday and intrae high and I'll kind of blow that up again is $50. And so we know that historically silver has touched this level. But I believe only once prior to this and that's when uh what was it? The Hunts the Hunt brothers were trying to capture that market and whether or not they were successful, they did drive the price up. What I'm seeing now in silver is this. You've had silver move from $36 in July 2025 to top out at about 38 and change and then form a double and then a triple top. Then you had it come up to a new price high $41, $42 and then say trade sideways for a period and then we had a price ascent a actual correction and recently we would see silver be very strong for a period of time. Here it's 3 weeks and then for the following four or five weeks, 7 weeks now we've seen an absolute top in terms of closing price at about $48.5 and an absolute intraweek low of about $47. And you've got these wicks that have tested areas between 48 and 50, but you have not seen an effective close. And so we know that in terms of a challenge for silver, it's going to be a to have a close anywhere above $50. We haven't seen that. So we've got definitive resistance now at about $48.5. We've got defined support at about $47. And it's going to be, as far as I'm concerned, if we do see a further advance in silver, we have to see an effective close really above 38 or $49 to see uh silver once again pass $50 and have an effective close. I don't think that that is in the cards right now. I think that s silver will continue to consolidate and trade sideways. I wouldn't be surprised if it didn't correct after moving from $37 up to these closing prices at about 48. And if it did correct, I would look for about between 44 and $45 is a level to correct to. And as you can see, I've got Fibonacci retracement levels put in here. And this is what's being tested right now, which is the uh 78% retracement. And the retracement level I'm plotting is $36 up to $50. We've seen the wicks come to this area. But closing price is well above that. So if it on a closing basis, if silver breaks below 47, I think it could challenge and test $45 as a potential level of support. If not, silver will go back and challenge these uh closes that came in approximately at $48 and try to take that out, whether it's 49 or 50. I would be hardressed to see an effective close above 50 for a sustained number of weeks. We'll probably challenge it before we get there. But right now, we have a floor in silver at $47. And we're looking at futures, not spot. And we've got a defined level of closing prices for the these four weeks here at around 48. And then of course right now a much lower close at around 4770. So those are the levels that I'm looking at. >> Excellent. Uh and then before we close off, let me just finish off with a comparison between gold and silver. So if you allow me to switch over to my screen now, Gary, I've plotted gold and silver together. Silver is a blue line, gold is a bar chart. And this is a 12month chart, historical 12-mon trailing 12 month. Uh and in the last 12 months, gold is up 52%, silver is up 57 uh 58%. So roughly the same with silver slightly outperforming. And if you look even closer, the outperformance really started to happen in the last 6 months. So if you'll notice that um in the first half of the year, silver has been lagging gold. Um so I'm I'm zooming in from January 2025 to June 2025. And you'll see that silver has been lag moving in the same direction, but not moving as much as gold. This outperformance really started to happen around June. And now since uh June, silver is up 50% 47% and gold's up 19.20% only. So gold's been pretty much sideways to up in the last 6 months while silver shot in a straight line. Given this pattern, do you think that silver will continue to outperform gold to this degree in the next 6 months? Typically, uh, what I've seen historically in terms of the relationship between gold prices and silver prices is that silver tends to outperform the percentage change in terms of gains on the way up, but also have a greater percentage draw down or price decline during periods of correction. Silver is a much more volatile metal in terms of price than gold. And so when you see them, they typically do move in tandem to the upside sideways or correcting. But silver tends to lead the way in terms of percentage gains on the way up and percentage declines on the way down. You also see a greater variance in terms of volatility. uh between let's say an intra week high and the closing price in silver than you have in gold. That has been a characteristic of silver for years is that it tends to outperform in terms of percentage gains and percentage declines when you compare it to gold. I I just wonder if this percentage uh delta, in other words, the the um the outperformance has already happened and now silver will start to lag gold um as a result. Um I guess if we were to answer that question, how will we go about solving that problem of or finding that answer? >> Well, so your question again is >> silver's already silver has already outperformed gold. Are we going to start seeing an inversion now where gold starts to outperform silver again? How do we go about finding that out? >> Well, the first thing we've got to really determine is when we look at gold, gold has had a straight parabolic move to the upside and it's done that over the last 8 weeks. If we switch over to a weekly chart in silver, silver has been flat or consolidating in which we've had a closing price of $48 and then the following week it opens at $48, but it closes at $4760. And here it then opens at at the closing price of the prior week and closes back at around 48.40. and then the next week opens at that price and trades below. If you can see on this chart, the open and closing price is almost identical for 3 weeks prior to this week. At the same time, we're looking at if we look at the wicks on silver, meaning the differential between the closing price and the low, the closing price on the low in both last week as well as four weeks ago, it actually traded to an intrae low of $47 and then recovered at some point during the week. So what we're looking at is resistance in terms of closing price, hard resistance at 48.40. And yet over the last 3 weeks, you had silver test $50 on an intraweek basis, for the first time in a decade or more. And so to me, that is pretty exciting. Now, whether or not silver can return to rally mode, I've watched silver follow gold in terms of direction and outperform it in terms of pace. And I think that that's going to continue. >> All right. >> I think what we want to do is first decide you've got a huge difference in gold. Gold has had a uh every single week it has closed above its opening price and above the closing price of the prior week and it's done that for eight weeks in a row. If we switch back to silver, it's the opposite. It has basically closed or opened in a relatively narrow trading range 4765. Not this week. This week it looks like it's going to close at 4760. very close. But you can see that over the last month there has been a floor of around we'll call it 4750 and a ceiling of around 48.40 yet it's tested different levels of intrae highs with last week actually trading to 50 and that's the first time we've seen that as I said in a little bit more of a dec than a decade. So, we've got a market that's absolutely consolidating as silver. It has done so for over a month. And when we switch to gold, we have the opposite. We have a market in which we've had new all-time record highs week in week out. Starting the week of August 19th when gold was at 3,300. And now we've tested 4,000 broken back below that. We've got an absolute level of resistance that we need to see taken out, which is approximately, let's say, $4,65. It's a little bit above that, but we've had a higher high, higher low, higher close for the last seven consecutive weeks. And when we switch it back to our silver chart, we've had absolutely a flat sideways trading market, meaning that the price of silver hasn't really gone on a closing basis much above $48.40 on an open or closing basis below 4750, let's say. So whereas gold's made new record high, new record close consistently week in and week out, silvers remain flat. And I don't excuse me, all things being equal, I would expect that trend to continue. In other words, gold can continue to challenge new levels. Although I think the most likely outcome over the next let's say uh 30 days, the next month is to see a small and acceptable price correction considering the the amount that's that gold has moved. Gold has literally gone from $3,400 to $4,000 $600 move in a very very short period of time. And so I would look for a correction to about either 3,800. It could go as low as 3,700. But if you look at this chart, all of these weeks are all-time record highs, all-time record closes. And we've done that for the last seven consecutive weeks. So we've this is the first week in which the intraweek high 4,070 and the current pricing 49.80 is actually about the same price differential between the open and closing price and we still have a day left in this week. So, anything can happen. But this is the first week in which gold did not close that far off of its uh closing price at any time during the week. Here this week, that's not true. We saw a trade to an all-time record high of around 4,070 and then break back below 4,000 2390. So, we know we have absolute resistance in gold at about 4,000. Great. Let's end it here. Thank you very much, Gary. Where can we find out more about you and learn from you? >> Well, thanks for asking. The goldfor.com is where our premium members watch our daily videos. Of course, I am still writing a daily article for uh kick media and that's every day. The letter is also available uh for free and so you can become a free get a free membership and have access to charts, have access to the daily letters. Our premium subscribers are able to watch our daily videos, but all of that's available on the goldfor.com. And the gold forecast channel on YouTube has got all of our videos over since 2009, about 3,000 videos with anything that is more than 3 weeks old available for viewing. >> Thank you very much, Gary. We'll put the links down below. Check out the gofor.com. Thank you, Gary. Thank you again and we'll speak soon. Bye-bye. Bye-bye and thank you for watching. Don't forget to like and subscribe.
Trader Called Gold Price Explosion; Now Has Shocking Update | Gary Wagner
Summary
Transcript
This is as near of a parabolic move as we have seen. Gold has moved as high as it has and as quickly as it has is the belief of a extremely accommodative accommodative a Federal Reserve. >> Let me ask you Gary if let's say gold in your words breaks above your upside target again like a freight train what do you do in that situation? That's twice in a row. I'm very pleased to welcome back to the show Gary Wagner, editor of the goldfor.com. Gary has pretty much nailed gold's run by magnitude and timing. We're going to get his outlook now, his updated outlook now that gold is at $4,000 and silver is just at just under 50. It's historic high. It's at $49 an ounce. Welcome back to the show, Gary. Congrat congratulations on your successful calls over the last couple of months. Well, thank you very much and it's great to be back with you and uh share what we can with our listening audience. Yeah, thanks. >> So, let's recap what you had talked about on my show. Last time you're on, which was late August, August 27th. Check out our interview with Gary, late August. Link down below. Back then, you had called back then, it wasn't even that long ago. It was 6 weeks, not even. You had called for the upside target of gold to be at 37 to 3,800. You had called for the breakout to happen anytime within the next 2 to 3 weeks on the back of a Fed cut. That's exactly what happened. The only thing that didn't really happen according to your expectations was that gold exceeded your upside by $200, which is not an insignificant insignificant amount of time. Sorry, insignificant amount by magnitude by gold standards is what I meant to say. So, let's recap first of all why you got the timing right, what went right in your opinion, and why gold moved even faster than what you initially expected. >> Absolutely. Unquestionably, when I was looking at this and when we spoke about a month ago, I had my targets, but I greatly underestimated the speed and pace in which it would hit those numbers. Um, I'm always happy when I undersshoot a target rather than overshoot a target. In other words, if I was calling for $5,000 per ounce gold, that would be quite disappointing. If I undersshoot it or get the timing off, that's just the market. The market is not going to react to what I said. It it's whether or not you can correctly anticipate where it might go. The timing is always uh a little bit more difficult to nail um in terms of the pace in which we will see uh gold prices rise. Yeah. >> Because it's risen a lot faster than what you initially expected. Are you more bearish now? Are you concerned? basically about this this pace of move. >> Well, actually in in my sense I believe that a correction would be a warranted and not change my overall bullish demeanor. In other words, typically a market that is in a very strong rally mode, uh, bullish undertones is going to have periods of price ascent and periods of either consolidation or corrections, and that's to be expected. If you get a market that moves parabolic, and this was near parabolic in terms of the move, then we look for a hard correction down. So, I not so much welcome a price correction, but I think that that is a necessary component in a market in which you don't have an unrealistic move to the upside. That's an overreaction. Um, so I'm very comfortable with what we're seeing gold do. I think that um if we would have talked about gold at $4,000 per ounce two months ago, I think that that was honestly off of my radar as well as many analysts. Um, unquestionably with gold, it's not a matter of when it will get to or if it will get to a certain price, but when. Uh, timing is always something that is much more difficult to anticipate and to nail. I'm always looking for price targets to be hit, but the timing, gold's going to react in the way it does and the timeline that it does. >> Can we pull up a chart, please, Gary? And I want to just revisit your last call. I want to see how uh you drew the conclusion that gold would hit 3,700 by to 3,800. And then um where I'm going with this is I want to see uh the pattern in which gold moved and how much it's broken above your initial expectation. Is there a historical precedent by uh by which gold has broken your expectation to the upside by this amount? And then we'll see what happened if that has happened in the past. Yeah, >> sure. Well, I brought up a a daily standard Japanese candlestick chart of gold. And I'm looking at what's called a Fibonacci retracement from 3,300 and that occurred uh during the last week of June. And what we saw really was a small rally up and then an actual correction. This would have been about a 50% correction from this initial move. And what happened was the trend got so strong that we would see gold ascend. So it ascends from uh $3,360 up to about $3670 and then you rather than getting a correction you get consolidation or sideways market moves in which during that time period so for example on uh Monday September the 15th it tested uh certain levels but couldn't break it. When the breakout did come, which started on the 19th of September, it ran from 3685 up to about 37.85. So, you had a really strong move in a short period of time and then a short period of consolidation. So, you're getting the market running up to uh new all-time record highs because this is all uncharted territory. And rather than getting a correction, you get consolidation. It basically trades sideways for a period and then goes and makes a new level. You get a short period here of only four trading days. Sideways up to a new level, a a new record high at around 38.887. 3 days of consolidation and then this last move. On this last move, what what is interesting is that the move down today was fairly sizable in terms of price change. uh down about $65. It's now trading in Australia. That's what that little line represents right here is the market now trading overseas in Australia. And so it opened a little bit below the closing price of today and we'll have to see if you genuinely get uh more of some downside pressure. My sense is with such a strong move from 3,300 up to 4 4,000 a little bit over that you've had a $700 upside move. So acceptable correction would easily be about a 23.6% retracement and that would take gold to around 3890. a deeper retracement and it's still a shallow correction because we can easily see in a bull market a correction of uh 61.8 and then still be bullish. We can uh go ahead and this would be the 78 right here. And so you could see it go deeper, but it's I don't believe it's going to. I think that a retracement at this level, if we do see it retrace, and I would expect it to is going to probably go to about 3890 and then trade sideways and then maybe move back up. It's all going to be based on the fundamentals that have been driving the market. if they continue uh to be prevalent in the market. That's what's going to drive the price of gold. Not technical levels, but fundamental events. >> Gold has been on a tear this year, hitting all-time highs, and the outlook remains strong. Today's sponsor, First Mining Gold, is a Canadian gold company with two major development projects in Canada. The most advanced, the Spring Pole Gold Project, is a multi-million ounce gold development project located in northwestern Ontario. and the Dupac gold project. Another multi-million ounce gold project is located in the prolific Abatibi gold belt of Quebec capable of producing 300,000 ounces of gold per year at very attractive all-in sustaining costs. 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You can learn more about the company in the link down below or scan the QR code here. Gary, can we pull up a longer term gold price chart and then uh I'll I'll ask you something about that because you brought up consolidation and I want to point out how gold has consolidated in the past and and uh ask you why it's not really doing the same thing now. Um so if we >> Well, when you say long I've switched to a weekly chart. >> Five to six years. Yeah. >> Oh, five to six years. >> Yes. that we're going to really have to uh >> we've you and I have been working together for quite some time now, Gary. We I think interviewing you in 2020. >> I remember the themes back then, you know, let's let's wait for a gold breakout. What's going to what's going to sustain this gold momentum? What will cause what will be the trigger for the breakout either to the upside or the downside? Remember those conversations? And it makes sense because between 2020 to 2022 when I first started working with you, gold was trading in a rangebound in a range. And gold has historically, if you look all the way back, gold has historically in most situations, except for a few dramatic bull runs, traded within a range and then moved up slowly. Over the last two years, however, the tone of our conversations have shifted dramatically. Now, I'm asking you, gee, it's moved up a lot. Has it moved up too fast? These are the conversations I've asked you in 2020. Has gold fundamentally changed its role for the investor? Has there been a paradigm shift? Whether uh rather than being a safe, stable, slowly moving asset like what it was doing in 2020, 2021, now it's moving parabolic parabolically upwards, it's up 25% just in the just in the last couple of weeks since 2024. I'm looking at my screen, it's up 124%. That's not something you would attribute as let's say a safe haven asset by definition, right? >> Uh typically not. Typically not. The acceleration uh really from about September to present we've seen gold move tremendously to the upside because back this is a much longer term chart in which we are looking at monthly candles. So, I'm almost best to look at weekly and just compress the chart. >> And and I bring this up because a lot of people in the gold space are looking at the same charts that we're looking at now and they're getting scared. They're using the word I'm scared because gold is not used to moving at such a quick pace. >> Well, we've we've seen it happen before. Uh look at it this way. We're looking at very long-term candles. Each candle uh represents a week of trading. And you can see that we've had consecutive green candles, which is simply saying that the closing price on Friday is above the opening price on Monday. You've had consecutive candles now, I believe, for the seventh week in a row, eighth week in a row, which is not that typical. We've seen that kind of action, but not consecutive weeks. Here you get that, but the move is not as great in terms of price differential. And here is more what you would expect. In other words, a solid week of gains, uh, consolidation the next week, another new price high because these are all record highs as gold ascended from 2000 up to nearly 4,000. And if we compress this a little bit, you'll see that gold has had a solid move to the upside. But what you're talking about is correct. If you look back between the years of 2015, let's say, and 2019, you had a very, very narrow trading range in which it really wasn't ascending to new levels and then consolidating and ascending. You're getting that now. So, if we look back to what happened in 2019, gold's at 1,200. It runs up to 2,000 and then corrects back down to 1,600. That's a fairly normal correction. Then you had this move to 2000 and it went sideways for a good period of time and this acceleration that you're talking about, it is really pronounced now because you have rarely rarely seen this many weeks in which you had nice size green candles, meaning a big differential between the open on Monday and the close on Friday. and consecutive green candles. We've gotten that before, but not as many weeks. And so, this is as near of a parabolic move as we have seen in quite some time, if ever. >> So, how do you gauge momentum using the technicals? How do you determine if these green candles will continue to stay green or if the momentum is slowing down? >> Well, one way you can do that is you convert the candlestick into a hankenashi. A hankenashi. They look very very similar. They're still candlestick like. The key difference is the opening price on a Japanese candlestick chart is the true open. On a hankenashi chart, which is what I've pulled up, the opening price is derived from the midpoint of the prior candle. That's why it's kind of a average chart. And so what you want to look at is a body size and b whether or not there is a lower wick. And the lower wick is very important because the absence of a lower wick on an uptrend means that at no point during the trading cycle, so if these are weekly candles, at no point during the week did gold prices trade to or below the midpoint of the prior candle. And you can see that for the last six consecutive weeks, we have gotten just that. Now, we've gotten that before, but typically you don't have as large of body sizes as we're getting now because if you look back to uh March 2025, gold's at around 2890 and then by the time this rally is over, it is over at about 32 to 3,100. you only got very large body size on the hankenashi for the last two cycles and then it really traded with an upside bias sideways and we've got an accelerated move to the upside and that's what is so unusual and typically when you have a strong parabolic move up as you just mentioned rightfully so you typically get a strong quick correction when that does occur >> market Tops and bottoms are usually impossible to call. Uh, but if I were to ask you for a top, how would you go about answering that question, Gary? >> They they are near impossible to call. I was initially my target was 3,800. That got taken out like a like a runaway freight train, so to speak. It quickly moved from 3600 to about 38. And let me move this back to a regular candlestick chart because you don't get true opens and closes. Um, you can see that the body size has increased over these last two cycles or weeks. We had gains all the way through, but these were small gains. Uh, the week beginning Monday, September the 8th, very, very small gain. The week beginning on the 15th, the week beginning on the 22nd. these last two weeks and of course this week is coming to a conclusion it's not over yet but you've had huge movements and you really I mean the top I I had called for was 3800 so what do you do when that target is taken out as it was well you re-evaluate where it could go upside potential to me is anywhere between 41 and 4200 if it continues to move up that would be my upside breakout out target. I don't think that if we get a correction that it will be a longlasting in terms of time, but it could be a fairly deep correction. We could see pricing go from it went from 30 3370 up to this all-time record high above 4,000 4,076. It would came back down during this same week at around 39.990, which tells me that on a technical basis, our resistance level is at $4,000 per ounce only because it's backed off. And when we look at these other candles, you can see this upper wick um last week was very short. the prior week they're very very short um upper wicks telling you that the closing price was very very near the intra week high of that candle and the same with last week. This week it's different. We had this exaggerated high 476 and now it is back below 4,000 at about 3985. So 4,000 is definitely what we're looking at in terms of resistance. I've already told you where I think gold could go if it continues to go higher, but I'm on the lookout for some sort of correction simply because the rally that began on the week of um Monday the 18th of August has been so strong, so dynamic and the fact that when you look even longterm, you do get periods of time where you have consecutive green candles, in other words, consistently seeing closes on Friday above Monday's open, but you typically don't get a lot of consecutive candles. You did here, but nothing like what we've seen recently. This is a tremendous move considering that back in the middle of August, gold was at 3,300 and now we've tested 4,000 and are trading right below it. >> Let me ask you, Gary, if let's say gold, in your words, breaks above your upside target again like a freight train, what do you do in that situation? That's twice in a row. If it happens, I'm not saying it will. Would you update your forecast to even more on the upside where at that point would you say, "All right, enough's enough. It's time to take profits." >> Well, there's a difference between the question of is it time to take profits or do can we anticipate where it could go and if so, how much higher could it get there? When you are in uncharted territory, which we have been and are definitely in, this is a week after week, consecutive weeks of closes above the open on Monday and definitely the close on Friday. This is a lot of time to have these consecutive gains that are coming in. So, it's near impossible to call a top. I think that we could see gold move back and reach challenge above 4,000. But we can see that at least the size of this wick. And the wick is simply the differential between current pricing, which is the top of this candle, and the top of the wick. The top of the wick is $4,070 and current pricing is at $39.90. So an $80 differential in a oneweek period of time in which it tested this level and came back down. We haven't seen that kind of activity during this rally whatsoever. Which tells me this is the first week in which gold has challenged a new all-time record close and intra week high and then backed off of that because we weren't getting that from the middle of August up until last week. Last week you had a large candle opening at 3790 and then closing at 3900. That's a huge move. And then this week it has definitely backed off because the round number of 4,000 or 3,000 the what I call century mark so to speak. We've really backed off of that. So now we can say with quite a good amount of confidence that resistance starts above $4,000 in gold. So, if we saw a break, let's say next week above 4,000. We already know where resistance is. It's roughly at 4,070 to 4,080. And we would want to see if it can test that. And if it tests that, the question is, does it close near that level? because we this this week we saw an incredible intraweek high $4,70 but then a huge backing off of price during the week back down below $4,000 to current pricing. >> What macro forces would need to stay in place for buying of gold to continue? Well, besides the fundamentals, which is um perceived Federal Reserve action, uh whether or not they're going to implement uh interest rate cuts, which is been getting factored into current pricing, the the rise here is anticipating that the Fed is going to be much more accommodative and implement two interest rate cuts at the final two FOMC meetings this year. And that's already factored in. That's part of why gold has moved as high as it has and as quickly as it has is the belief of a extremely accommodative accommodative Federal Reserve. If that is what actually unfolds as we go into these meetings, uh then you could see consolidation, you could see a market correction. What's amazing to me is that this path, if you even look back to the beginning of the year in January, gold's at $6,300 and then by May it's at $3,200. And then if you look at these last 7, eight weeks, they have been tremendous. We've seen it before. We saw it back in January. But these weekly moves in terms of price differential between the opening price on Monday and the closing price on Friday were much smaller than what we're seeing now. We've seen gold move up and then go sideways with the bias to the downside. But this is a very rare occurrence to have new all-time record closing prices on a weekly basis and then that's followed by a higher opening price the following Monday. And that's what we've seen for the last 8 weeks. >> I I'm just musing you here, but um it strikes me that we haven't adjusted for inflation. These are nominal values, not real growth of the gold price. Perhaps we have seen this pattern before. Um I I I like to do this analysis at some point and maybe share with you next time. You know I I I did a while ago I did a gold price to go big mac index and the idea is let's say how let's see how gold price divided by so basically how many big macs can you can you buy with 1 ounce of gold um a and um the idea is to see how a standardized good like a big mac uh that's standardized around the world using US prices um moves relative to the price of gold. So let's say if if the line is relatively constant, then you know that gold is basically keeping up. We're moving alongside uh the uh the change in price of real goods like a Big Mac. Um but if it's moving way above or even going down, then you'll know that it's kind of moving on its own. I I like to see how gold has performed in real terms because we have to factor in that there has been massive inflation in the last couple years. And so um maybe inflation adjusted gold is not is just doing what it's always been doing. Um let's see because remember during the time when we spoke in 2020 um that was just around COVID and then 2021 happened there was massive QE and massive inflation gold spiked before then from 2010 to 2019. um well I wasn't in the industry at the time but the inflation rate was still relatively low and so gold price between 2010 to 2019 stayed relatively flat and it's only in recent years when inflation has been just wild that we starting to see wild moves exponentially for gold. So I I like to see the inflation adjusted. What do you think? Well, from what we have seen, the anticipation uh the anticipated inflation levels haven't been reached. Uh we're seeing inflation, but much less significant than many of the analysts were calling for. And the buying power as you say, how many how many Big Macs can you buy for X amount of gold is a very valid way to approach it because you've got a constant through time. And so that I can't address cuz I don't know what the price of a of a Big Mac is. I'd like to know what your findings are. Has has it kept a pace at all over time? >> It has. when I did it a couple years ago, it has started it has outperformed. So when go when there's a lot of gold buying, you can see that gold is moving even above inflation, far beating the CPI index rate of change um when there's massive buying. And then when there isn't, it's just kind of moving along um and either staying flat or not even remember in 2010 it was 2010 to 2019 most years it was flat. So it wasn't even beating CPI most of in most of that decade. Um, but anyway, a conversation for another time. Let's move on to silver. We have to talk about silver. Before we talk about silver, uh, comment down below where you think gold is going to go next. I'd like to get uh the audience's reaction and and and perception of what the market's doing. And as always, if you like the content, subscribe to my channel and go check out Gary's work as well. Link down below. Check out his channel as well. All right, Gary, let's pull up silver. Silver's up to $50, almost 49. It's touched 49 twice. only twice in the last 50 years. Now, I want to ask you before we get to your silver price forecast, why has silver taken so long to catch up to its all-time highs when gold has been breaking all-time highs for basically two and a half years straight? Um I think the primary reason is that when we look at gold that seems to be the standard in terms of a safe haven that's an inflationary hedge where silver isn't perceived to have the same kind of weight in that way. When we look at the recent move in silver you can see that back as recently as the beginning of August silver's at $36. And if we look back, let me compress this chart. You've got to go back quite a ways to see what we were witnessing. We had 32, 33, 33. These were absolute tops that silver couldn't break. We've consistently seen silver for the last few years. Fine. We had a period in time when silver had come down and then actually hit 26 but then quickly retraced to 17. And then you have this almost triple top, absolutely a double top of silver at $26. This is back in December uh 2023. It makes a new top at 32 and then another one at 34 October of 2024 and then again in April of 2025 it corrects and then you get these new levels $39. But then you get a parabolic move in silver from about $37. And what's interesting to me is the intraday and intrae high and I'll kind of blow that up again is $50. And so we know that historically silver has touched this level. But I believe only once prior to this and that's when uh what was it? The Hunts the Hunt brothers were trying to capture that market and whether or not they were successful, they did drive the price up. What I'm seeing now in silver is this. You've had silver move from $36 in July 2025 to top out at about 38 and change and then form a double and then a triple top. Then you had it come up to a new price high $41, $42 and then say trade sideways for a period and then we had a price ascent a actual correction and recently we would see silver be very strong for a period of time. Here it's 3 weeks and then for the following four or five weeks, 7 weeks now we've seen an absolute top in terms of closing price at about $48.5 and an absolute intraweek low of about $47. And you've got these wicks that have tested areas between 48 and 50, but you have not seen an effective close. And so we know that in terms of a challenge for silver, it's going to be a to have a close anywhere above $50. We haven't seen that. So we've got definitive resistance now at about $48.5. We've got defined support at about $47. And it's going to be, as far as I'm concerned, if we do see a further advance in silver, we have to see an effective close really above 38 or $49 to see uh silver once again pass $50 and have an effective close. I don't think that that is in the cards right now. I think that s silver will continue to consolidate and trade sideways. I wouldn't be surprised if it didn't correct after moving from $37 up to these closing prices at about 48. And if it did correct, I would look for about between 44 and $45 is a level to correct to. And as you can see, I've got Fibonacci retracement levels put in here. And this is what's being tested right now, which is the uh 78% retracement. And the retracement level I'm plotting is $36 up to $50. We've seen the wicks come to this area. But closing price is well above that. So if it on a closing basis, if silver breaks below 47, I think it could challenge and test $45 as a potential level of support. If not, silver will go back and challenge these uh closes that came in approximately at $48 and try to take that out, whether it's 49 or 50. I would be hardressed to see an effective close above 50 for a sustained number of weeks. We'll probably challenge it before we get there. But right now, we have a floor in silver at $47. And we're looking at futures, not spot. And we've got a defined level of closing prices for the these four weeks here at around 48. And then of course right now a much lower close at around 4770. So those are the levels that I'm looking at. >> Excellent. Uh and then before we close off, let me just finish off with a comparison between gold and silver. So if you allow me to switch over to my screen now, Gary, I've plotted gold and silver together. Silver is a blue line, gold is a bar chart. And this is a 12month chart, historical 12-mon trailing 12 month. Uh and in the last 12 months, gold is up 52%, silver is up 57 uh 58%. So roughly the same with silver slightly outperforming. And if you look even closer, the outperformance really started to happen in the last 6 months. So if you'll notice that um in the first half of the year, silver has been lagging gold. Um so I'm I'm zooming in from January 2025 to June 2025. And you'll see that silver has been lag moving in the same direction, but not moving as much as gold. This outperformance really started to happen around June. And now since uh June, silver is up 50% 47% and gold's up 19.20% only. So gold's been pretty much sideways to up in the last 6 months while silver shot in a straight line. Given this pattern, do you think that silver will continue to outperform gold to this degree in the next 6 months? Typically, uh, what I've seen historically in terms of the relationship between gold prices and silver prices is that silver tends to outperform the percentage change in terms of gains on the way up, but also have a greater percentage draw down or price decline during periods of correction. Silver is a much more volatile metal in terms of price than gold. And so when you see them, they typically do move in tandem to the upside sideways or correcting. But silver tends to lead the way in terms of percentage gains on the way up and percentage declines on the way down. You also see a greater variance in terms of volatility. uh between let's say an intra week high and the closing price in silver than you have in gold. That has been a characteristic of silver for years is that it tends to outperform in terms of percentage gains and percentage declines when you compare it to gold. I I just wonder if this percentage uh delta, in other words, the the um the outperformance has already happened and now silver will start to lag gold um as a result. Um I guess if we were to answer that question, how will we go about solving that problem of or finding that answer? >> Well, so your question again is >> silver's already silver has already outperformed gold. Are we going to start seeing an inversion now where gold starts to outperform silver again? How do we go about finding that out? >> Well, the first thing we've got to really determine is when we look at gold, gold has had a straight parabolic move to the upside and it's done that over the last 8 weeks. If we switch over to a weekly chart in silver, silver has been flat or consolidating in which we've had a closing price of $48 and then the following week it opens at $48, but it closes at $4760. And here it then opens at at the closing price of the prior week and closes back at around 48.40. and then the next week opens at that price and trades below. If you can see on this chart, the open and closing price is almost identical for 3 weeks prior to this week. At the same time, we're looking at if we look at the wicks on silver, meaning the differential between the closing price and the low, the closing price on the low in both last week as well as four weeks ago, it actually traded to an intrae low of $47 and then recovered at some point during the week. So what we're looking at is resistance in terms of closing price, hard resistance at 48.40. And yet over the last 3 weeks, you had silver test $50 on an intraweek basis, for the first time in a decade or more. And so to me, that is pretty exciting. Now, whether or not silver can return to rally mode, I've watched silver follow gold in terms of direction and outperform it in terms of pace. And I think that that's going to continue. >> All right. >> I think what we want to do is first decide you've got a huge difference in gold. Gold has had a uh every single week it has closed above its opening price and above the closing price of the prior week and it's done that for eight weeks in a row. If we switch back to silver, it's the opposite. It has basically closed or opened in a relatively narrow trading range 4765. Not this week. This week it looks like it's going to close at 4760. very close. But you can see that over the last month there has been a floor of around we'll call it 4750 and a ceiling of around 48.40 yet it's tested different levels of intrae highs with last week actually trading to 50 and that's the first time we've seen that as I said in a little bit more of a dec than a decade. So, we've got a market that's absolutely consolidating as silver. It has done so for over a month. And when we switch to gold, we have the opposite. We have a market in which we've had new all-time record highs week in week out. Starting the week of August 19th when gold was at 3,300. And now we've tested 4,000 broken back below that. We've got an absolute level of resistance that we need to see taken out, which is approximately, let's say, $4,65. It's a little bit above that, but we've had a higher high, higher low, higher close for the last seven consecutive weeks. And when we switch it back to our silver chart, we've had absolutely a flat sideways trading market, meaning that the price of silver hasn't really gone on a closing basis much above $48.40 on an open or closing basis below 4750, let's say. So whereas gold's made new record high, new record close consistently week in and week out, silvers remain flat. And I don't excuse me, all things being equal, I would expect that trend to continue. In other words, gold can continue to challenge new levels. Although I think the most likely outcome over the next let's say uh 30 days, the next month is to see a small and acceptable price correction considering the the amount that's that gold has moved. Gold has literally gone from $3,400 to $4,000 $600 move in a very very short period of time. And so I would look for a correction to about either 3,800. It could go as low as 3,700. But if you look at this chart, all of these weeks are all-time record highs, all-time record closes. And we've done that for the last seven consecutive weeks. So we've this is the first week in which the intraweek high 4,070 and the current pricing 49.80 is actually about the same price differential between the open and closing price and we still have a day left in this week. So, anything can happen. But this is the first week in which gold did not close that far off of its uh closing price at any time during the week. Here this week, that's not true. We saw a trade to an all-time record high of around 4,070 and then break back below 4,000 2390. So, we know we have absolute resistance in gold at about 4,000. Great. Let's end it here. Thank you very much, Gary. Where can we find out more about you and learn from you? >> Well, thanks for asking. The goldfor.com is where our premium members watch our daily videos. Of course, I am still writing a daily article for uh kick media and that's every day. The letter is also available uh for free and so you can become a free get a free membership and have access to charts, have access to the daily letters. Our premium subscribers are able to watch our daily videos, but all of that's available on the goldfor.com. And the gold forecast channel on YouTube has got all of our videos over since 2009, about 3,000 videos with anything that is more than 3 weeks old available for viewing. >> Thank you very much, Gary. We'll put the links down below. Check out the gofor.com. Thank you, Gary. Thank you again and we'll speak soon. Bye-bye. Bye-bye and thank you for watching. Don't forget to like and subscribe.