Bloor Street Capital
Jan 6, 2026

Triple Flag Precious Metals Update 2026 | Sheldon Vanderkooy and Jimmy Connor

Summary

  • Streaming Royalties: Triple Flag Precious Metals (TFPM) outlines its royalty/streaming model, dividend growth, buybacks, and accretive reinvestment strategy as core value drivers.
  • Key Asset - Northparkes: Operated by Evolution Mining (EVN), this copper-gold asset with long mine life and potential mill expansion underpins TFPM’s largest stream exposure.
  • Beta Hunt Growth: Westgold Resources (WGX) is expanding capacity and delineating the Fletcher zone, which could materially increase output benefiting TFPM’s royalty.
  • Hope Bay Catalyst: Agnico Eagle (AEM) advances studies toward a potential multi-decade, 400 koz/yr operation in Canada’s north, with a decision expected in H1 2026, enhancing TFPM’s 1% NSR.
  • Arthur Project, Nevada: AngloGold Ashanti (AU) is growing a large-scale Nevada gold project with >20 Moz potential and a high-grade core; TFPM’s 1% royalty offers long-term optionality.
  • Jurisdictional Focus: Strong preference for tier-one regions—Australia, Canada, and the United States (notably Nevada)—to lower risk and attract sustained capital for decades.
  • Pipeline and M&A: A deep, varied deal pipeline (small to >$500M) plus sector consolidation trends support continued growth; TFPM favors debt over equity to avoid dilution.
  • Additional Catalyst: Montage Gold (MAU) progresses the Kone project in Côte d’Ivoire toward 2027 first production, adding further optionality in TFPM’s portfolio.

Transcript

Sheldon, thank you very much for joining us today. For those who might not be familiar with Triple Flags, why don't you start by providing us with a brief overview of the company. How many assets are there? How many cash flowing assets are there? And how many gold equivalent ounces or geos? >> Yeah, thanks Jimmy. Real pleasure to be here with you today. Uh we formed Triple Flag about 10 years ago and we built the uh the asset uh we built the portfolio asset by asset and we stand today with uh just under 240 assets. Uh a little over 30 of those are cash flowing. In terms of relative size, we're the fourth largest streaming and royalty uh company in the world. Um we basically are following the same business model as Franco Nevada and Weed and Precious. And by that we get streams and royalties on tier one mining assets that generate gold linked and silver linked returns for our shareholders for for the long term. And as you mentioned you have 239 assets. I don't want to talk about all of them but I want to focus on some of the larger ones which are going to be driving growth here in the coming years and also those assets which have optionality. And I want to begin with your largest asset and that's North Parks. It represents 25% of your NAV. It's a copper gold asset. In Australia, you have a stream on the gold and the silver and the mine is owned by Evolution and they've been very active in growing production and also the mine life. Why don't you take us through what Evolution has been doing? >> Yeah, so Evolution has owned that property for just under two years now. Um, Evolution's a tier one Australian-based operator. Their market cap is uh larger than 10 billion. So, it's actually a really nice operator for that asset. And as far as assets go, it's actually an ideal cornerstone uh asset for a streaming royalty company. It's a copper asset. We get the gold and silver. It's been in operation for over 30 years. Uh there's decades of mine life ahead and we're going to benefit from that. And what they're doing, I think, is really looking with fresh eyes at this property. And it's a massive massive uh property that our streaming entitlement covers over a thousand square kilometers. Uh North Parks as an operation actually is the largest land owner in the area. So they have a lot of the surface rights which is uh really helpful for developing uh new new or bodies. Um the actual mining lease right now like all the reserves and resource that they have consists of just 26 square km. So you look at the thousand square km also the 26 just you see the potential there is enormous. Um what evolution is doing is they're really putting money into uh exploration. They're looking at fresh eyes. A lot of the surface drilling there was actually quite shallow in the past. Originally it was a gold mining zone. people went and found shallow gold deposits and what they found is they exploited the copper and they saw some copper outcroppings, copper ore outcroppings. These those link up and they uh they extend underground. So, I think there's a lot of potential to go deeper and also to look at the potential for gold on surface that maybe wasn't interesting in prior gold environments, but now at $4,000 an ounce start to become more attractive. And one of the great things about this mine, it's a copper mine as you mentioned, but copper mines have significantly longer mine lives than a gold mine will. Some of them could be 50, 75, 100 years. You've already mentioned they've been in production for 30 years. What's the mine life on this now? And where do you see it going? >> Yeah. So, right now there's like uh 30 to 40 years of mine life there. But when you look at the resource entitlement, the resource there is over 500 million tons. And a really interesting feature of North Parks from our perspective is the current milling rate is about 7.6 million tons peranom. So it's a very low uh depletion rate there of the uh the known ore the known ore sources. Uh I think there's uh great potential to expand the milling capacity and evolution has talked about this uh in their public comments that this is something that they're looking at. If they do expand the milling capacity that of course would bring forward production. It would result in an increase in our our entitlement. So that would be very very attractive. And then on the back end, you know, people people at site there talk about this being aundred-year mine. And so like I think the the potential to find more ore to backfill that acceleration is is uh really strong. And as a streamer in royalty, you just uh you just benefit from that. That's a real source of upside for Triple Flag. So I'm really interested to see what evolution um comes to uh comes to the market with next year. Sheldon, I want to ask you about another asset that's also based in Australia and that is Beta Hunt and it's owned by West Gold Resources and there's been a large expansion also going on there. Can you just take us through that asset and give us an update on what's happening there? >> Yeah, Beta Hunts it's located in Western Australia. It's uh it's operated by West Gold. uh we got that asset as part of our acquisition to Maverick's Metals and we thought it was a good asset then and since then it's actually just uh it's just shown itself to be even more than we thought it was. Um one thing is there's a zone called the the Fletcher zone and that was an entirely new zone since we acquired our royalty on that property. Uh they think that there might be an equivalent amount of mineralization there as the existing mine that we underwrote and so that of course benefits us completely as they bring that forward. The other thing is uh West Gold is actually expanding the capacity of the Beta Hunt mine right now and that's irregardless of the Fletcher zone. So we're going to see an increase in capacity there, an increase in production. Um that's going to benefit Triple Flag and then as they drill out and understand the Fletcher zone better. Uh that that of course could lead to uh further capital deployed there which as a royalty holder we will benefit from. And again, located in Western Australia, I think Australia is as good a mining jurisdiction there is in the world. It's exactly where you want to have your assets. >> So, let's bring it closer to home now. Uh, you and I are both in Toronto. And I want to ask you about Agniko's or one of Agniko's assets, and that's Hope Bay. It's located in Canada's north. It's not in production right now, but Igno's been doing a lot of work in terms of exploration and also optimizing a mine plan. Can you just take us through that and what's the latest? what's happening at OPE. >> Yeah, it's a really good news story for Triple Flag and forg by by the way and it's a good news story for Canada as well. So, we acquired this uh royalty uh as part of the Mavericks portfolio as well. When we acquired it, Agniko already owned the property. They were studying it and we weren't sure if they would keep it in their portfolio or not. And they spent money drilling the property more and understanding what they had. What's really shown over the last year is that Nico's really gotten behind this uh this this project. and they've talked about this being 400,000 ounces of gold a year for decades to come. Uh, Agniko, I say, is the best operator for the Canadian far north. I mean, they have the history up there. They have the capability. Um, and so seeing AO put their uh put their technical capability and their financial capability behind this asset, I think is wonderful. We have a 1% royalty on that. So, we benefit from that as long as it goes. When you look at the entitlement we have, we always look to see what's our what's our entitlement to the land package. It's a very large endowment. It's over a thousand square kilometers there. It's district scale and they are very very uh excited that the potential that this uh this this mine represents. And so I would imagine that once they come to a decision to uh to to mine to mine Hope Bay, uh it's very natural for these things to expand over time and also to extend their mine life as they open up new or bodies. >> And do we have a timeline on when Agnika will make that decision? Yeah, they've told us that they should be announcing something on Hope Bay in the I think it's H1 of uh 2026. So again, as a royalty holder, we don't have the direct uh the direct drive there, but they've been quite public facing in that and I'm really looking forward to see what they announce to the market. >> Let's talk about one of your assets in the US now. It's called the Arthur Gold project. It was acquired with the acquisition of Origin. It's owned by Anglo Gold Shanti and it's located in the state of Nevada, also another great mining jurisdiction. tell us about this assassin and what it will mean to triple flag when it is up and running. >> Yeah, thanks Jimmy. Um really excited about Arthur. We acquired this uh royalty uh in the middle of 2025 and as you said it was part of the acquisition of the origin uh company. Um we have a 1% royalty here and and angle gold the shanty is the operator and this has been identified fairly recently and the resource base has grown quite quite quickly. Uh we have a number of members on our team who have a lot of experience at Bareric including uh Gold Strike and Cortez as those assets were developed previously and we think there's a lot of analog between Arthur and those assets. So um this could get very very very big and that's exactly why we wanted to get on this royalty uh relatively early. We're really excited about the potential. Um when we bought the royalty they had 16 million ounces of gold in the reserve. Uh we thought there should be a lot more. There's a lot of very uh there's a lot of public drilling data they put out. Uh they put out some really good information and uh we have teams of uh geologists and mining engineers and we actually thought there was more gold there than the 16 million ounces. Um subsequently the company has said on uh in public forums that they think that there's over 20 million already. So that actually validated our uh our due diligence. So that's really nice. Uh Engle the Shanty is going to come with additional studies and information to the market um again in H1 of 26. And uh I'm quite eager to see what they what they report on their last quarterly uh earnings release. They had some very nice diagrams which showed a good good high a high high-grade core there that should form the basis of a nice uh starter operation and and I think the growth could be uh it could be immense and so I'm quite quite eager to see what they report and also just how this develops over literally decades. And Sheldon, this asset, it really speaks to the optionality and this is one of the big benefits of royalties. And I can't help but notice there's a a slide in your deck which shows Arthur Gold Project and you compare it to Gold Strike. Maybe you can just speak to that and why do you think it can become so large? >> Yeah, a really nice feature of the royalty business is your first check is your last check. And so when you think we we put our our money into this into acquiring this royalty. Now as Anglo Gold Shanti develops this project, they're going to pay for drilling. They're going to pay for development, permitting, studies, you know, the capital requirements to build the mine. And that actually can go on for decades because sustaining capital is quite large. And as a royalty holder, you get a free carry on all that capital. You get a a free carry on the capital that's already been expended on a property and the future capital that gets expended on the property. And that's really really powerful. And then when one of the things you think about is what sort of properties attract capital to get exploited and get developed and start to produce cash flow. And features like being in Nevada really aid that the barrier to deploy capital in Nevada is much lower than in some of the harder jurisdictions of the world. You also just look at the topography in Nevada. So I was talking about political risk there, the legal regulatory regime. Uh the topography is very very good. It's easy. Um there's a lot of uh you know experienced miners and and the ecosystem for mining is strong there. The communities support mining and then the grades we're seeing here are quite quite robust. So you already have enough there to have a very profitable mine and then that attracts more drilling and the desire to expand. So when we look at a property like this, we're comfortable that we're going to have a very nice attractive mine that will make a really good return for triple flag shareholders, but the upside will be revealed literally over decades. I think we could be talking in 15 years and we'll be talking about things that we can't complate right now, but that that that property will be attracting the capital to develop and expand. >> I want to move on now and talk about your balance sheet and also capital allocation. And you and your team have been very busy this year. As you mentioned earlier, you acquired Origin royalties earlier in the year. You're paying a dividend. You're buying back stock. How does the balance sheet look right now? And how will you allocate capital in the coming year? >> Yeah, so right now we're debtree. Uh we have a little bit of cash on the balance sheet. We're quite pleased to be here. And really what our business model is is we have this robust portfolio that generates really robust cash flows. And we take those cash flows and we do a couple things with them. One is we pay a dividend and we increase our dividend every year. So every year since we IPOed in 2021, we have increased our dividend and we're going to continue doing that in the future. Um the biggest driver of shareholder value is we take those uh excess cash flows and we redeploy them into further investments. So this year we did the Arthur project, we did the Sierra Sun acquisition, we did the Monera Florida acquisition and and that just generates compounding growth over time that doesn't dilute shareholders because we're compounding our growth through existing cash flows. We're not tapping the equity markets. We don't like issuing shares. Um, and then the third thing is from time to time we will uh we'll use the NCIB and we will buy back shares because that's a fantastic way to shrink the denominator, shrink the number of shares outstanding. What I always care about are is are we growing the asset value per share and are we growing the cash flow per share and that is the real measure over time about whether we're generating wealth for our shareholders or not. >> And earlier this year, you also increased your credit facility to a billion dollars. What was the reasoning behind that? >> Yeah. So again, the capacity of Triple Flag has grown larger as our cash flows have expanded. If you look at our history from when we IPO to now, we've grown our cash flows very very significantly. There's that's a two barrel impact. One is we've increased the production and second the gold price has flown through and we've benefited from that. Um we have more debt capacity. I don't like equity dilution. I don't like more value has been destroyed by uh equity dilution in the mining sector than probably any other single factor. And so we we guard our equity very very jealously. I would if I had a $500 million investment to make, I'd much rather draw down the debt, not dilute my shareholders and then pay down that debt using the cash flows on the portfolio. And our run rate right now on cash flows is over 300 million a year perom you know and that's at current prices and current production levels. So that's quite quite robust. So if we borrow five $600 million that's a that's a very reasonable burden for for Triple Flag and I'd much rather borrow the money than issue equity in DUP and Sheldon in addition to acquiring Origin uh you also acquired Mavericks in 2023 and if you could find another deal that was a creda both on a n basis and also cash flow basis would you do that? Yeah, you you hit the nail on the head there, Jimmy. Uh, absolutely. I think the key is uh we like to stay focused on gold and silver. Um, but if if it's gold and silver and a good portfolio and we do the diligence, um, we are we are open to to deploying capital in that way. I actually don't see buying a company like Mavericks as any different than buying a portfolio of streams and royalties. And you just look at value and it's really diligence. So, you got to go through the list and make sure that you have good value beside each uh each asset that you're acquiring. Um, what I'm really pleased with is we did the Mavericks acquisition in 2023. Uh, looking back now, that was an absolute home run for Triple Flag, which uh tells me that our diligence uh was was uh done right and we weren't over optimistic and we had allowed for uh for for for margin for error. But um when I look at the Hope Bay royalty, we acquired that through there. Beta Hunt, we acquired uh the Kensington royalty, Ka royalty, like the list just goes on and on of really good things that some of them we thought were good assets, but they turned out to be much much better even irrespective of the gold price than what we thought at the time. >> And given the move that we've seen in gold and silver in the last couple of years, is is it harder to find deals that are accretive on an EV and cash? >> I wouldn't say that. Yeah, I wouldn't say that at all. Um it's not harder. It's probably about the same. Um there's really five competitors for for assets and uh you know we're one of those five and so we're always looking uh we have geologists, mining engineers, uh we have networks within the mining industry. Uh we look at a lot of things. For every deal that we announce to the market, there's probably a hundred things that we've looked at in some way, shape, or form. And so you're really seeing the uh the end results of a lot of looking and and some of the assets that we look at our competitors get. Um, but we're quite happy as long as we're able to find good assets on good terms to deploy into that works really well and will drive that compounding growth. Uh, in 2025 to date, we've done $350 million worth of transactions. That's actually a really good number for a company of triple flag size, and that's in that higher metals price uh environment. So, uh, I'm actually quite confident on our ability to find good investments for Triple Flag shareholders uh, going forward. And can you just speak to the current pipeline? What are you seeing out there right now in terms of deals? How many are there and what kind of size? >> Yeah, it uh what's nice is the pipeline has uh it's not all the same, right? And there's a lot of different features. There's some that are quite large. It's like the over over 500 million. There's some that are more midsize. I call that like 250 to 500 million. And there's a number of smaller ones. And I have no problem at all doing a really good $50 million deal. I'd rather do a good $50 million deal than a big not so good deal. Um and and that should be self-evident, but I think at our size it allows us to deploy that way. Um there's things like M&A financing, project financing is always there. Uh you also look at jurisdictions like you know are, you know, where's the mix coming from? I think it's a it spreads across uh the good jurisdictions like Australia, Canada, the United States. There's also very good mining jurisdictions throughout Latin America. Um and and I think we can find ways to deploy in jurisdictions that our shareholders really like on terms we like with you know good operators. Um but really it's a it's a deep pipeline and it's very varied and a lot of the art a lot of our job is to look through that and find the best opportunities for our shareholders and decide where we want to put our dollars. >> And as we already discussed M&A has been a big theme here in the last few years in addition to you being very active. Royal Gold just acquired Sandstorm. Do you think this is going to be an ongoing theme within the sector? >> I think it is going to be. I mean, at at some level, these are easy companies to put together and that they're small management teams, their portfolios of assets, and we really saw with Mavericks that we were able to generate good value and and we issued uh shares on the Mavericks deal. It was a good deal for Triple Flag shareholders, but it was also a good deal for Maverick shareholders. So, I think these are sort of things that actually can generate value on on both sides. um it takes uh it takes two parties to come to agreement on value and if you're using [clears throat] uh stock to pay for the deal you have to come to agreement on relative value and I think that's really uh really part of the driver as to like whether you find a transaction or not. Um and it's not an eitheror proposition like we're talking to operators all the time. We're talking to people that hold third party royalties all the time and then uh we can we can look at the other opportunities as well. Sheldon, as we wrap up, you've already discussed a lot of the details on what's happening with some of your larger assets, but maybe you can just provide a summary for viewers and investors on what they can expect from Triple Flag in 2026. >> Yeah, we we're doing really well right now and I'm quite pleased with how the portfolio is going and what our prospects are going forward. So, you know, as I wrap up 2025, we're coming in at the top end of our guidance range, which is, uh, which is, you know, very exciting and you should do that, but, uh, it's always nice to actually deliver that for shareholders. And then as we go into 2026, there's a few key catalysts that I'm really looking at, and you touched on some of them, and and one of those is, uh, North Parks has developed the E48 suble cave uh, throughout 2025, and that's going to be going into production, uh, you know, as 2026, uh, uh, evolves, and we're going to benefit from that. Um, I'm also looking forward to uh to North Parks uh potentially making an announcement on their E22 block cave. That's a high gold grade zone uh very accretive for uh the triple flag uh stream there and and they've said that they're going to come forward with some kind of decision there going forward which would be fantastic. Um the other thing is the Hope Bay which we touched on and the Arthur royalty which is good. Uh Montage Gold is developing the Kone project in Kat Devoir. uh they've been doing really really well. They've targeted uh first production in 2027. Um so far they've been actually ahead of their milestones. So you know I' I'd like to see good development project pro progress there as well uh and and continued uh progress towards that 2027 uh start date. So there's a lot of uh catalyst and developments in our portfolio which are going to be driving value as we go into 2026. >> Well Sheldon, that was a great overview and a great update and I want to thank you very much for spending time with us today. Thanks so much, Jimmy. A real pleasure. [music] [music]