Market Sentiment: Cash levels among institutions and retail are at multi-year lows and BBB credit spreads are exceptionally tight, signaling poor near-term risk-reward.
Precious Metals: Gold and silver are in a secular bull, but recent “ballistic” moves warrant caution; they favor ongoing exposure, trimming winners, and selective royalty/miner positioning.
AI: The guest argues AI is not in dot-com mania territory, though overall valuations (via free cash flow yield) are near bubble bands and require nuance in stock selection.
High Beta Stocks: High beta has driven recent gains, elevating market risk; if leadership reverses, it could amplify drawdowns, with credit often leading equities.
Utilities: Utilities have AI-driven tailwinds but are becoming higher beta with regulatory and political risks; not the safest hedge in a downturn despite recent strength.
Consumer Staples: Staples’ market-cap weight is near tech-bubble lows, making the sector a compelling, under-owned defensive opportunity to build in the “stay-rich” bucket.
Portfolio Approach: Emphasis on diversification and risk management—balance “get-rich” growth with “stay-rich” defensives; examples included adding a water utility and a countercyclical pawn shop operator.
Transcript
Hello and welcome to the Stanberry Investor Hour. I'm Dan Ferrris. I'm the editor of Extreme Value and the Ferris Report, both published by Stanberry Research. And I'm Cory McLaclin, editor of the Stanberry Daily Digest. Today we talk with our colleague Alan Gula, senior analyst at Stanbury Research. Allan has a very good mind. He's a very smart analyst. We're going to talk about a lot of topics. Get out your pens and pencils, take [music] some notes. So, let's do it. Let's talk with Alan Gula. Let's do it right now. Allan, welcome back to the show. Always a pleasure to see you. >> Yep. Thanks for having me back. >> All right. Well, Corey and I are going to do the usual job of peppering you with questions and finding out what you have to say and and emails before we hit the record button indicate that you have quite a bit on your mind. Um, actually, so maybe we should just like kind of jump into the deep end actually. Is there one thing you you sent me a list of stuff that you're thinking about which didn't surprise me. Um, is there one thing right now that really is kind of either bothering you or that you're really excited about among all the topics that you sent? >> Well, I I think I have some growing worries. Um, we've been um, you know, we've been cautiously optimistic and u trying to just look for opportunities. But yeah, there are some there are sort of three three things that I'm I'm watching and worrying about. Um it's not like Defcon one yet, but um yeah, just uh you know, like cash levels, I think credit spreads are really tight and um like high beta stocks have have really carried this rally. And so those are some of the things I'm I'm watching. You know what I want to know? As soon as you say that list, what I want to know like how I've said I've said things almost exactly like this. I've been saying this stuff for like off and on since like 2017. You know what I'm saying? Like h how long have you felt this way? How often have you felt this way in the last, you know, three years or whatever? >> No, it's it's it's this is new. This is uh this is just like the things that I'm I'm looking at >> and uh yeah, maybe maybe we can get into the cash levels first because you know we often hear there's this seven or eight trillion dollars of cash on the sidelines uh in money marketines, right? Cash on the sidelines. Yeah. >> I just think it's it's uh it's mostly a myth. And first of all, if I have cash and I buy a stock from you, then you have the cash and you know that cash just went from one sideline to the other. Um, plus if you look at uh the aggregate amount of assets in money market funds over the long term, it just it just grows ever larger over time. And there's some variability, but basically the money market assets generally grow with the economy. And uh plus there there's a lot of financial institutions, corporations that use money market funds. It's not just investors. And um it's important to keep in mind that the money market fund whether it's a mutual fund or ETF that's just the wrapper. Um the underlying assets are largely uh treasury bills and the amount of T bills outstanding is is a function of the the federal debt and treasury's preference for long and short long or short-term issuance. Um so it has nothing to do with investor preference. And uh lastly, you know, when you when you look at the overall money in the economy, like the Fed uh the Fed controls base money, the monetary base, and then the overall amount of money in the economy is is is a function of commercial bank lending. >> And so none of that is really none of that is is predicated on um you know, what investors are doing or sentiment. And so um I think if however if we look at subsets of investors and their cash levels and I think we can get a a gauge of sentiment through that. So there and I know that survey quality surveys um are polarizing like the survey quality especially for economic data has has deteriorated but um there are a couple surveys that I still like and one of them is uh the Bank of America um it's Bank of America research they have their fund manager survey that they do monthly. >> I knew I knew that's where we were going. Yeah. >> Yeah. and and there's it's 200 or more institutional money managers surveyed and several hundred billion dollars in in assets under management and uh and even though these are uh professional money managers they're typically wrong at uh at turning points and you know specifically they tend to hold a lot of cash at the lows in the in the stock market and um I have a a chart of the the the fund manager survey cash levels and uh you can see maybe if we can focus on the 10 years. So, this goes back pretty far, but in the last 10 years, the the uh the jumps in cash levels correspond with lows in this in the stock market. And so, cash levels spiked um in late 2015 and 2016. That was a great time to buy stocks. Cash levels spiked uh during the COVID crash in April 2020. So, jumped from around 4% to 6%. Um and then cash levels uh fell back to down to 4% during that bull market and then um cash levels rose into October during that that b that bare market um cash levels rose to 6% uh by October 2022. >> It's almost like you're telling me these institutions are run by human beings, >> right? [laughter] Exactly. And uh well this this sort of makes sense like if if everyone if this is this is why the the market has bull markets bare markets it's it's it's a function of all these investors uh you know moving in and out of the market. Um, so yeah, like >> and right on this chart too, like the when cash levels get get low, right? That's what you're talking about now. We're looking at >> Yeah, cash levels are now now low. It's down to 3.3%. It's the lowest on record for this survey. And uh this is it's like it's not a catalyst. there's we we still need to see a catalyst, but this is sort of worrisome where there's there's not a lot of cash on the sidelines. >> It's it's it's sentiment based on, you know, actual investor actions. In other words, not like they're saying what they think the stock market will do. They're saying it by the small amount of cash they're holding. So, >> Right. >> Yeah. >> Right. And >> it's what I would call real sentiment. >> Yeah. And the the this also mirrors what's what going on in retail accounts. Um there's another survey so run by the American Association of Individual Investors AI >> and uh they they ask well are you are you bullish or bearish and that's that's fine but there's also an an asset allocation survey which they do um which I think is even better stocks bonds and cash and and uh here's the cash component and uh it's similar behavior as the as the institutional survey um retail investors were they generally hold a lot more cash but retail investors were holding a lot of cash at the April lows in 2020 um or March uh March 2020 lows the COVID crash >> uh and then also holding a good amount of cash at uh at the end of the bare market in 2022. So >> now cash levels have have unsurprisingly fallen. Um these investors have deployed a lot of their cash. are still have, you know, a good amount, but 15 uh 14 15%. Certainly, if this gets below 14%, that's going to get me uh more worried. But yeah, we're getting to the point where um you know, it just seems to me riskreward is not not really that all that great. >> Yeah, I love this chart. You the spikes tell the whole story. It's like late 2018, COVID, bare market, tariff tantrum. The four spikes that I'm see You know, people can't hide what they're doing. They could call themselves long-term or what a contrarian what they can't hide it, you know. >> Oh, well, >> right. And the dip in like 2021 >> into because that's really when you know that was when the real mania phase of uh you know when all the techs and the meme stocks and everything were happening before the bare market began in 2022. So you see that that's an early indicator of what could come. >> Okay. So, let's do the credit spread thing. I want to hear about this. We um we talk with Mike Debbios periodically, Stanbury's bond guy, and you know, I've probably put the credit spread chart in the digest, you know, two or three times over the past few years. Um what do you see when you look at this? How are you feeling about this? Is it another like sentiment, real sentiment type indicator? >> Yeah, I think it's it's a it's a good sentiment indicator. Um, and just for people out there, so credit spreads are the additional yield that investors demand above risk-free treasuries. That that yield spread compensates investors for the risk of default. And uh, yeah, you're right. Credit spreads are sort of like a sentiment gauge in the in the credit market. When spreads are wide, there's risk aversion. And when spreads are tight, there's there's risk-seeking. And right now, spreads are exceptionally tight. There's not a lot of worries in the credit market. um bond issuance, you know, the credit markets are wide open. And so, uh for intermarket analysis, I I like to look at tripleB credit spreads because, you know, and you know, I know Mike looks at high yield spreads, too, but um you know, tripleB is it's the uh it's the largest tier for corporate bonds and around half of S&P 500 companies are rated triple B, whether it's triple B plus, triple B, or triple B minus, which is the lowest investment grade wrong. And uh yeah, so tripleB spreads are below 100 basis points, nearly the tightest of the past five years. And so riskreward is I think poor in investment grade corporate bonds, but that also suggests riskreward is is poor in equities because everything is connected. Um and so what's interesting is um credit often leads equities. So in 2021, uh the tightest spreads were actually in the summer and fall of 2021. Um and then the stock market peaked uh at the very beginning of 2022. Um so spreads had widened already giving a big negative divergence. And uh so we could see we could be seeing something similar um like a similar signal now with spreads having been their tightest last September at 93 basis points in tripleB and um and we're slightly wider than that now. So but overall this is uh this is painting a similar picture where it's telling me that it's not a good time to be adding to risky positions. >> Right. And it I didn't realize it was the largest tier. I I don't I I always looked at TripleB and never never understood exactly why I was doing it. But that's a pretty good reason. And just for our listeners sake, like this is >> one way to think of this is that you are you're going up the capital structure. >> So Allan said, you know, the the credit problems preede the equity market problems. Um you would think you I would think it would go the other way around, right? because the riskier layer of the capital structure ought to kind of go south first. Um I wonder why that is. Should we even should we even ask that question? >> Yeah, it's it's a good question. I think it could be just a function of um yeah I think in general uh fixed income investors are more risk averse and so if there's if there are things that are going wrong um there's they're sort of you know very attuned to what's going on in the economy what's going on with with the underlying fundamentals and um and so if if yeah it's and they're less prone to fear of missing out and and things like that. So yeah, if uh that could be why bond it's not always the case, but yeah, that could be why often credit uh gives you this early warning signal, >> right? The more risk averse, I think that's the answer. That's it. And you know, generally some people say, well, the bond market is the smart money. Well, you know, dumb things happen in the bond market, too. >> Yeah. >> But >> well, >> the analysis tends to be uh more less forgiving, I think. Yeah, it's uh not that the Yeah, I don't I don't I don't really think that uh one group is smarter than the other. I just think that um it's and then also if you look you know credit spreads were their widest at in you know in late 2022. So if credit was so if credit markets are so smart, why are they why are they so worried um when you know we're about to have just a risk on uh bull market and things are going to get better? So um it it's uh early warning signal but at at the peak of maximum pessimism, credit doesn't really give you that early early risk on signal. Yeah, that's interesting because I I've noticed like, you know, in shaky times the the credit spread tends to widen but pretty quick, too. >> And then and then the stocks tend to follow. >> But what you just said too at the other end, the stocks will rally back quicker um than the credit spread is when is is tightening again. I I think and not all the time, but I mean what what that example you just gave now is uh interesting. If you're following this credit spread chart for some signal that those are things to look at, >> right? >> Yeah. >> So, the of your three worries, the next one is the one that [clears throat] is most intriguing to me. Um, talk about that a little bit and I I'll probably have a decent question for you at some point here. Yeah, the uh I I'm sort of worried that the the the high beta stocks have have really dominated so much during this this recent rally. And uh so beta is a measure of market risk. And if I plot the the S&P 500 high beta index, which includes the the 100 stocks in the S&P 500 with the highest beta, if I plot that against the S&P 500 equal weight, uh then it shows the high beta has just massively outperformed uh since the April 2025 lows. And >> boy, howdy. Yeah, justic. >> It's not um always the case. So in prior, you know, bull legs, it's not really, you know, high high beta hasn't really outperformed to this degree. Um, but uh and then al also over the very long term, high beta actually doesn't perform all that well. So if you you don't want to be just structurally long high beta all the time. >> Yeah. >> Okay. So wait a minute. I realize we have to say something for our listener. Allan, what what does high beta mean? Why why watch high beta? >> So beta a beta of one is basically a a stock that'll move um sort of in in lock step with the market. So if you have a a beta of say 1.5 then that stock has 50% more market risk than uh than the overall market. So it's if you if the if the market's up and this is just a you know oversimplification but if the market's up 20% in a year um then the you know the high beta stock it might be up 30%. Um and so yeah the and the the high beta this index changes so it's it's if this is the most that if the if this measures the highest beta uh stocks in the S&P 500 that also changes so because the the characteristics of of stocks can change. So um but yeah in this there's there's obviously a lot of tech right now there's some cyclicals consumer discretionary um there's cruise lines and airlines some financials say Robin Hood and Interactive Brokers Goldman Morgan Stanley um and yeah the the chart shows me that uh the bull market the last nine months has has been driven by hyped stocks and that's not necessarily a good or bad thing I just think it um increases the risk for the overall market um on top of um stretched valuations. If this reverses um if high bidded stocks start to underperform then yeah we could have and and we've had we've had very sharp declines in the market um the COVID crash the uh the tariff tantrum and so this could just add uh add fuel to the fire >> and let's face it like the past year um espec you know basically since April you know since the tariff tantrum I I mean there several things have just screamed right precious metals commodities generally you know copper platinum whatever um uh I somebody was talking to me about solar power stocks anything with electricity in it because of AI um you [clears throat] know the sprat nickel fund went nuts um copper yeah silver is going nuts now you know there there's been a lot of just screaming performance in the past almost year now. Um, one of those one of those categories of course is one of the things that you had said was really on your mind which is like gold and silver right now. Um, so maybe there's a good time to segue into that. what what you know when I see it when I see gold and silver I see like ballistic performance and I'm like well ballistic performance doesn't usually just kind of level out and go sideways right that's that's whenever I see a ballistic chart like that I just it's visceral um what do you see >> right well remember uh it's it's amazing how fast things change where just um not too long ago gold I remember gold people were lamenting that gold was lagging because Bitcoin was doing so well and it was like all right is gold is gold dead because um the older you know older people loved it but the younger generations are going to gravitate towards digital assets uh you know instead and so that's sort that's just uh you know completely thrown out the window but uh but yeah the the gold has these secular bull markets. Um it's the bull run from 2001 to 2011 was about a 650% increase but there are there are these huge draw downs. There was a 22% 29% 13% draw down along along the way during that you know secular bull run. And so we're in another secular bull market in gold. Um it's up around 370% since the 2015 lows. we've already had uh a 20% draw down in uh in 2022. And so yeah, we I just think people have to be careful. It's it's there's a lot of people chasing this now. Like we've as a firm uh Sansbury Research has been, you know, it's just in general, our analysts and editors are, you know, mostly bullish on gold. We just we we are proponents of having gold exposure in our portfolios. We've said this for for since the beginning of the you know, the founding of the firm in in 2000 and yeah, it's it's now it's you're getting some hot money come in and it's and I just feel like people need to be careful if they're trying to trade it or um and then especially silver. Silver is just completely bonkers. Um >> yeah. >> Yeah. But uh but yeah, >> that's historically that's the action though, right? It's like gold moves and then silver moves and when silver moves it takes off like a rocket ship and that's exactly what's happening now. And that's like >> it really moves. Yeah. >> Yeah. It feels like late stage, right? Is what we're saying here. >> Well, it's uh yeah, silver, we were talking about high beta stocks before. Silver is like a high beta gold >> and uh and yeah, the the silver picture. What's interesting is the when the Hunt brothers tried to corner the silver market, I'm sure you guys are familiar with that with that story. >> Um, the comics raised their raised their margins and uh that's what's sort of started this like uh uh the conspiracy theory. I don't know. What do you guys think of this uh in silver? What do you think of the conspiracy theory um of like you know this grand suppression theory? I I question it for sure. Like every time I hear it, I go, "Okay, but can you tell me a whole lot more?" Because all I've ever seen is people pointing at price charts and saying, "Oh, there was a big dump this morning." Okay. And and you know, we people have been prosecuted for spoofing in in precious metals, right? It's happened. But but but those strike me as like if if that was if we were going to get a real look at the at the conspiracy coming true, it seems to me that that case I think it was JP Morgan a few years a right that would have blown the whole thing wide open and it didn't you know so I don't know. And the other thing is there's a lot more there's a lot more paper metal than there is physical metal and you know that's going to be a crisis too. Okay, I've heard this for 20 years as well. I mean, I I keep I keep hearing these things and they keep not coming true. Now, you know, sometimes it's like that, but so far it just doesn't seem it's like I can buy all the silver I want. Can you can you guys having trouble buying silver? Have you heard of anybody who can't get the silver they need? No. you know, they're going to pay gazillion bucks an ounce now, but that's the way it goes, >> right? >> So, yeah. >> Yeah, that's my thought. Your last your last point there was my thought. >> You know, you could buy gold at Costco and and you know, silver and you know, elsewhere like >> Yeah, but um the price action is what it is. It's it is pretty crazy now to Allen's point. I will say this when I couldn't get gold during um you know COVID I mean the refiners actually you know in Europe they actually shut down and I was like oh this is it I'm going to go long and of course that was the dumbest thing you could ever do right um because you you actually couldn't get it and you couldn't buy it and the price crashed and it was like oh wow okay I see how this works [laughter] now so um and you know even that it passed and here we are I I I mean I you sound skeptical as well. Yeah, I just think that uh well getting back to the the the the raising margins um the comics raised uh margins in uh for futures in you know in the when the when Hunt brothers tried to to corner the market and then dur in like the the 2011 um that spike in silver uh the comx raised margins then too and now we have we've seen the comx you know, CME Group ComX raised margins um uh for for futures again late last year. And I yeah, I just think that it's there's no grand I don't I don't think there's a grand uh you know, conspiracy to, you know, to to suppress the the prices. there might be short-term games going on that that you know and maybe some some people did some illegal things but uh but yeah we've um I think it comes down to like how how are you navigating this? It's like so we've had and we talked about this last time you should have gold exposure in your portfolio. That's part of it's part of a diversified portfolio. And um and I talked I think I talked about how we we have the our gold royalty plays in the total portfolio um that we like. Um and then yeah, you just have to be careful. We've we've trimmed some of those positions. We added a silver miner, which silver miner, but it has a lot of gold exposure. But anyways, we we added a silver miner to the total portfolio uh mid last year. >> Mhm. and it and it doubled >> and uh so we we've we're gonna we've trimmed that position and we're just managing our risk. We're not chasing things. >> Mhm. >> We're not trying to time them time this too much because, you know, who knows this could continue farther. I do think we're going to have some some big draw down. So, people just need to be careful. Um I think trimming trimming positions makes makes sense. Although look, maybe the the miners the prices of the miners don't reflect, you know, a full confidence that these precious metals prices are going to stay where they are. >> Yeah. By the way, >> maybe that's the case. >> By the way, Alan, congrats on like total portfolio for 2025. Like last I love that the last time you were here, we talked about total portfolio and it had a fantastic 2025. I mean, >> yeah. All people needed to do was tune into that episode, buy the total portfolio, and they're good right up until now. >> Yeah, >> it worked. >> Yeah. Just uh Yeah, just to Yeah. So, the the precious metals positions, they're in in the total portfolio. And just for anyone unfamiliar, um the total portfolio is Stanbury Research's fully allocated portfolio. Um this is a collection of our most compelling recommendations from across our various publications and um those securities are are handpicked by by our investment committee which which I'm on and we size the positions relative to the risk and we do everything for you. You don't have to read any financial newsletters if you don't if you don't want to. But anyways the yeah our precious metals exposure is in our um is in our stay rich bucket. Right. So we have these we think about this portfolio in in like two halves. There's the two buckets. There's the the get-rich positions and then there's the stay-rich positions. The get-rich are you know the the higher risk um positions that are designed to you know benefit from um you know uh prolonged you know sec continued secular bull market in in stocks and and our compounders and and that's where we get our capital appreciation. And then we have our stay-rich securities that are more defensive and that are going to pro provide you know balance during the downturns. And what's great is even though it's what's great is when we have our our stish positions like which include gold and silver and these things when those and they're supposed to be low risk and and protect us in the downside. When those positions just are some of the highest performing in the portfolio uh that's great. So we have we're getting on both sides. we're getting the capital depreciation actually from the staverish position sometimes. Um but yeah, it was uh it was a great it was a great 2025. We um we were up nearly 20% for the calendar year. Um and that return is it's even better than it sounds because we're not taking equity like risk. It's a it's a fully diversified portfolio and our benchmark is the 6040 uh stock bond balance fund which was up um about 13 13.5% last year. So we we outperformed by more than 600 basis points and uh yeah it was a it was a great year. >> Diversification is so boring though, isn't it? >> [laughter] >> Yeah, it's this 2025 was the revenge of the revenge of diversification and I hope it continues but it's and everybody wants it. It's uh >> I'm looking at the chart of the performance the total portfolio portfolio right now and really I mean it looks like the hu the big difference versus the benchmark was in early of last year February March when you know all the tariff questions were really like legitimate and people were were fearing a lot um that's when you really the portfol you're your the return was actually up you know during that period uh to your point, right? >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. We we it's we it's not a tactical like we we make some tactical decisions and short-term things and and but yeah that a lot of that was just just you know preparation and not uh so for example we we added a um and just like looking for opportunities just constantly not being too bearish not being too bullish constantly looking for opportunities in our during our 2005 two uh February 2025 rebalance date. Um and we have a we have an annual rebalance and it just happens to be a February each year. But um we added uh you know we added a water utility to the Stribridge bucket. Um and that actually rose you know during you know as socks started to sell off in March. um that actually rose and it remains strong through the through the Tower of Tantrum. And um and then we have a a pawn shop operator. [clears throat] So yes, we own we own a pawn shop operator in this in this portfolio. And as you might imagine, that's a it's you know, it's a counteryclical stock and it outperformed during the sell-off. And yeah, the it was the it was the stay rich section really really pulling its weight during that uh during that March and April um you know disruption and our >> great I'm going to steal that phrase by the way or maybe Cory will beat me to it in the digest. The revenge of diversification, >> right? >> No, you could have that one, Dan. I'll say no. >> Yeah. Yeah. It's like one of those things. Um actually Corey just said it best. He said, you know, nobody wants it until everybody's just feels like they got to have it until it works and then everybody wants it kind of too late or something. It's it's sort of typical human foil. Everybody's backwards looking. Um but you guys look forward and and uh and it works. [laughter] I don't know how else to say it. Um, so [clears throat] let's see. I I wanted I'm glad that we we sort of um talked about all of this stuff so that we can have a good chunk of time left to talk about what you appropriately characterized in your email to me before we started before we hit the record button today. Um, AI is like the thing nobody can stop talking about it. You can't on a podcast like you must talk about it or people think you're out of touch with reality. And I think they're right, right? I mean, you are. If you don't say something about it, you could hate it. You could think it's a bubble. You could, you know, whatever you want. But you do have to talk about it. And um let's see. I don't have your email in front of me, but you don't think it's a bubble. Correct. Well, it's uh I I think I have a nuanced take which is not good for so everyone wants to want these high conviction uh takes on if yes it's a bubble and no it's not a bubble and >> Alan I just want you to know I want all the nuance you can throw at me. >> Yeah. >> Bury me in nuance. Love [laughter] it. Serious. I'll say well I'll say this the um we we I update like this uh free cash flow yield valuation uh model for the S&P 500 each month and we we started this like several years ago and and it's just a great way to track the overall valuation of the market. I think it's better than than price to earnings ratio or price to sales or cape ratio and and we published that as part of our uh st our flagship newsletter indicators the Stansbur's investment advisory and way back when I just I ran I ran the the data and um so we exclude it's actually tougher than it seems but we so we exclude financials but uh or most financials we include but we still include like say Visa, Mastercard, the exchanges, those those stocks that I think they're financials, but I think they should be included on a free cash flow yield uh you know uh model. But anyways, way back when when I when I created that that chart initially, um we sort of put we put these levels on it. So there's an average free cash flow yield and and I said, "Okay, here's there's a a band for average and then like you know like cheap, dirt cheap, there's expensive and then bubble and and we were really far from from uh we were it was I think it's just an average valuation when I first created it and then we it you know market has has oscillated. It got uh it actually hit dirt cheap like the day of the of the the COVID crash or the uh the day of the low of in like on March 20 23rd 2020. It got to you know dirt cheap. We went from cheap to dirt cheap like in one day and uh and I it's something that it's not it's not doesn't give you any actionable actionable um you know signals because it's just like this is this is well I guess that that is that was a sort of an actual signal but anyways it's it's more just okay how are what are the what are our perspective long-term returns going to be and the higher the valuation more expensive the valuation the lower your perspective ive long-term returns. I think that's actually become sort of a a controversial uh view because a lot of people think valuation doesn't matter anymore. But anyways, this the bubble the bubble like band. We're almost at it. And so just based and just based on that, we are on the cusp I think just based on free cash flow yield for the S&P 500. Yeah, we're on the cusp of a bubble. And >> I don't think it doesn't matter. But I've stopped telling everyone it does all the time. [laughter] >> Yeah. >> I've been saying it for too long, you know. It's just like, okay, Dan, we get it, you know. [laughter] >> Yeah. No, I think valuation matters >> matter until it does, right? >> I think your metric is better than anything I've used. The free cash flow makes more sense, >> right? So that was that. and whether I think the term bubble it's just it gets overused and really what's what um just becomes meaningless because people want to call everything a bubble and I I just don't think that something like a narrow pocket of a narrow pocket of speculation I don't think that that's a bubble like if you have um you know like SAS stocks in 2021 I I know there's like 2021 got crazy I don't think that that was a bubble and I think a bubble is, you know, my definition would be does the market peak um and then not return to the highs for an extended period like over 10 years, >> right? Um >> yeah, I've talked about that a lot too and stop talking about it. But I want to hear what you talked about it. >> But ma my main point is and I wrote a public article about this in late 2025. Um, and it was my first public article in a long time. My main point was that we are the market is extremely expensive, but the and but I don't think we're in a mania phase. >> And the mania phase in late 90 1999 and early early 2000 that was a proper mania. Um, and we're what we're the craziness we've seen recently is not it pales in comparison to that craziness. And uh, so I wrote that article and I basically had these five um, these five uh, categories sections and that showed look the dot bubble had much bigger first day IPO pops um, averaging 70% in uh, in 1999. Um, there were crazier stock price moves like Qualcomm's 2600% rise in 1999. >> The overall index valuations were much higher back then. The top 10 companies are more were more expensive back then. And then the the most egregiously expensive stocks back then were just much more extreme. So the NASDAQ 100 traded the entire uh NASDAQ 100 um uh you know the index traded at like a P of nearly 100. So um it was just and when people when people try to compare AI and things going on now and they say well this is this is the craziest I've ever seen it. Well, it's it's it's not like objectively the the the tech bubble in uh in late 99 and early 2000 was was much much more uh excessive. >> Let me ask you this. One of the things that kind of cooled my jets from always saying the market's so expensive >> is that I took a long-term perspective and I used some moving averages to kind of smooth things out. And generally speaking it really is true that by different measures valuations have risen o the overall level has risen in the past call it two or three decades right so it you know it was I think um we could use anything to me it's all relative and they all all the charts look the same so you can use cape even if you hate it but cape was like 44 or something at the top of the dot bubble and uh you know what if it goes to you if it goes to like 55 or 60 or something the next time around that wouldn't surprise me a whole lot and if the S&P 500 bottomed out at you know I think it was 13 in 2009 you know if it was like 15 at the very bottom this time that wouldn't surprise me I just feel like there's all this um you know software ware has eaten the world and all these asset light kind of businesses. The internet and software have eaten the the the world. Every the internet has touched every business and every human being basically. So those things are less capital intensive, aren't they? And and that would make sense. They get higher multiples, right? And they're massive market caps, so they, you know, they move the overall level up. Seems like to me, >> yeah, I think that makes sense. Um, one of the one of the >> You have to twist your arm on that one. >> Yeah. But, uh, well, I I just think the cape ratio, if you're going to look if if if you're looking at 10-year trailing, um, average earnings. >> Mhm. And when you have the when you have uh companies that are that are growing really quickly like we do now and the S&P 500 is dominated by these large uh these large tech companies which which are growing quickly. So Nvidia's Nvidia's last 10-year earnings are completely irrelevant. It's what's what's going to happen that over the next 5 10 years, right? Um and for a lot of those tech firms, it's the same it's the same way. So that's why I like to look at the the free cash flow yield. Um it's and that is that's also that's backwards looking but um but at least it's it's the current situation. It also factors in capex. So if you have Microsoft and and uh these big tech companies investing more in their um you know their their infrastructure buildout then that may not be reflected in their earnings but it's going to be reflected in free cash flow because you know you you deduct uh the the capex and Microsoft's free cash flow yield is it late last year it basically got to almost where it was during the tech bubble. uh to the peak of the tech bubble. Uh not quite there, but um but yeah, and and it's uh yeah, it's true that these companies have wide margins. That's why I don't like looking at the price to sales ratio because it's that's just it's blind to margins. So if you have if you have margins steadily growing over time, that price of sales just doesn't reflect that at all. And that's why I think the price of sales is just uh you know it's not really a useful valuation metric. >> Yeah. Also has you know trended upward over time. Um you know for for good reason right profits are a bigger portion of sales. So [clears throat] another thought I've had that I you're the kind of person I want to run things by. I respect your mind. I respect your work and I want to run things by you. I have this idea like I noticed um over the past couple of decades like several large banks have shut down all or some portion of their commodity trading operations and Wall Street and investors generally have pushed you know asset light um you know high margin cash gushing kind of businesses and now this past year like all the capital intensive stuff largely on the back of you know AI. So right I get it. Um is has screamed you know like you know like I said nickel miners and and not even like precious metals but nickel miners and copper miners and utilities have done pretty well because of course they're you know the they're mo most of that is you know electricity and and the utilities are flying up. So it seems like and then when I think about somebody like Warren Buffett who said you know his favorite business would be just like a royalty on something else that has you know I put no capital it requires no additional capital you know he he made as much hay of that idea as anyone and then over time he's as he got larger he built in these more capital intensive type energy operations and things and I feel like 2025 was like the revenge of, you know, but besides being the re revenge of diversification, like the revenge of capital intensity, you know, um we're and I've seen these various pieces by some pretty smart folks who feel like finance is is is running headlong is crashing headlong into the limits of physics. Like you can print liquidity, you can't print a copper mine. And we just need more of this stuff. I don't know. That's all I got. That's the idea. It's an outline. It's a feeling. It's a feeling. I got a feeling. I want to know. I want you to tell me of what you think of my feelings. Like a psychotherapy show. >> Um I Well, what if um everyone's so so bullish on AI and um and investors are most investors are um overweight. So like what if Yeah. What if the um you know the industrials and materials those sectors of the economy start to start to lead and AI sort of actually see the MAG 7 have already started to lag. >> Um so that's a big that's a big development and so maybe maybe the rest of the market sort of um can sort of uh carry the weight for a little bit. Um I think yeah so you mentioned utilities the uh a lot of those have become de facto AI plays. >> Mhm. >> And you have to be careful there because well we're trying to yeah utilities have typically been this defensive sector and >> um that that's where okay we're going to it's going to protect you in a >> in a uh in a market uh draw down. But >> yeah I think a lot of those utilities some of the some of them are even in that high beta index now. Um so like constellation energy had had a beta of less than one from like 2022 to 2024 >> and then in the past two years it's it's beta has jumped to 1.5 and so now constellation energy NRG NRG energy new core Vstra those are actually in the high beta the S&P 500 high beta index. >> Yeah and like utilities the return is regulated you know they're like they're not allowed to make too much money. >> [laughter] >> Yeah. And well, there's them up. >> Well, they're they're making more money now right now as we speak in in certain parts of the country, but there's going to be >> there's we're getting political, you know, backlash and whatnot now heading into a political cycle, too. So >> yeah, there's definitely some some secular tailwinds for utilities, but um yeah, and what's going to protect you and we've been long utilities, but yeah, it's you just have to be careful what's going to protect you in a in a uh in a bare market. I don't think >> I don't think it's going to be utilities as much. Staples. Um, if you're looking at, uh, unloved sectors, Staples was >> like in the early 90s, Staples was like 12% of, uh, the aggregate S&P 500 market cap. And during the tech bubble, that fell to like below 6%. >> Mhm. >> And then Staples came back. And that's sort of the function of like Staples being unloved, but also tech uh, the tech value multiplying. But uh yeah, it's a relative thing, but it works. Yeah. >> Yeah. But then Staples grew to in like at the end of the financial crisis, Staples were back to like 12 12 to 14% of the of the overall mark, you know, mark u S&P 500 market cap and now they're back down to less than 6%. >> Yeah. >> And it's like basically at the at that lows from the from the uh tech bubble. And so Staples, I think, is a it's a great place to look for opportunities. Most investors have have just no exposure to Staples. They're not interested in them. And um and yeah, we that's that's going to be an area in our in our stay bucket that um you know that we're going to focus on, try to build that up. And uh >> every time you say the word staples, I wse because I recommended LP like months and months ago or maybe even a year ago. I was just like, okay, a little, you know, early or wrong? I think we're into wrong territory now. Um, >> but [clears throat] this is a good place to ask my my final question. >> Um, I I and I thank you. Like I'm so glad that we got the chance to cover all the things that you emailed us about. Um, because I was really really curious. So, thank you for that. But the final question is, you know, you've answered it before. It's the same for every guest, no matter what the topic. Even if it's a non-financial topic, identical question. If you said the answer already, feel free to repeat it. The uh question is simple. It's for our listeners benefit. If you could just provide them with one takeaway or one thought today, what would you like that to be? Um, so when my when I was 14, my uh my dad opened up a uh a custodial brokerage account >> and he uh and so he helped me buy he helped me call up the broker and and buy my first stock. Um, and so there's this new initiative uh from uh Invest America. So giving giving all kids under 18 investment accounts and um I think that's I think that's just a great thing. Uh my kids were born before January January 2025, so they're not eligible for the thousand dollars u that you know that'll automatically go into into newborn accounts. But anyways, I both my kids have uh custodial accounts. I think parents should open investment accounts for their kids, fund them and contribute to them annually. Let's get those kids investing from a young age, but make sure that you teach them to uh be diversified. >> All right. succinctly put. Thanks for that and a great message. And uh you know, it's always great to talk with you, Alan. I'm glad that we uh I'm glad that we're going to keep you in the rotation, man. I just got to check in with you now and then. So, thanks for being here. >> Yep. Great to hear. Thanks for having me. >> Thanks. >> All right. >> Tomorrow, Stanbury Research is opening its doors and letting you in to a rare behindthescenes investment board meeting. Five of Stanberry's top experts are coming together to reveal their most important buy call of 2026. They'll walk you through how they're navigating today's markets from AI bus fears to the massive surge we've seen in gold and silver. They're going to walk you through what they're bullish on and what they're avoiding right now and their number one stock idea for the year. That's six top idea stocks for 2026 from Stanbury's top experts. But you can only learn if you tune in. So I'm going to send you to stansberrykickoff.com. Again, that's stanberrykickoff.com to see this presentation. I I have a little bit of a confession to make about Allan. Like I just think he's a really smart guy and and that's why I sort of admitted it there in the interview. Like I I need to check in with him on things. I want to bounce ideas off of him because I you know I just like the way his mind works. He's a very good analyst, very smart analyst. And so, you know, that's why like when Allan's on, I want to talk to him about seven different things and take notes and figure out what I think, you know, based on what he says, you know, as well. It's he's he's an important input for me. Put it that way. >> Yes, he has a brings a valuable perspective on on any topic, right? You could just throw any topic at him and uh he has some some argument and data to back it up. Uh and he mentioned what his article when we were talking to AI. um it was if you just Google it, it's five reasons the AI boom isn't in.com bubble territory yet. And he goes through exactly what what he was saying like very detailed on um just why this isn't as wild as um the dot era for example. So so yeah, no it's uh he's he's he's very very good and that's why he runs the total portfolio, right? which has touches everything um that we do pretty much and picks from the best of uh of all our editors recommendation your recommendations and and everything else. So >> yeah, that's an interesting that's an interesting mandate, isn't it? You got to pick from Stansbury and you got to put together a portfolio that really works well under under certain circumstances. In the case of the total portfolio, like any circumstances, um that's a that's a big job. I I wouldn't want it. If they wanted to put me on the investment committee, I might say, "Oh, geez, guys, I'm kind of busy." You know what I'm saying? [laughter] because it's uh it's it's demanding. I mean, you know, we we make a lot of recommendations, right? But we >> Yes. >> We don't make you know, we don't recommend I don't know, do we even recommend I know we recommend more than a hundred stocks as a firm in a year, but when when you've got to, you know, put out new ideas for the total portfolio, um I I could see that, you know, being difficult. I could see myself going, well, let's see. we've only got these three other ideas left and I don't like any of them or something. Let's let's just say so it's it's difficult and obviously, you know, uh they do it very well because they beat the hell out of the benchmark last year as Allen told us. So, and and I'd like the idea of the revenge of diversification. Hopefully, that's not just like a rotation thing. you. I I would like to see that be a better long-term thing because I I think long term it is a good idea. Um for for everybody who's not Warren Buffett, you know what I'm saying? >> Yeah. Yeah. Long term. I mean, if we're talking about, you know, the the high beta being uh overextended right now, I I would I would guess that I would suspect that the the riskreward for that isn't where it was uh a year or two ago. And maybe diversification will be the thing again this year. You know, we're already seeing it with we saw it last year too with out of US stocks into foreign um you know, just with all the geopolitical stuff going on and you know, already we saw that briefly already to start 2026. So, um we'll see, but I know they'll be ready for it. No m Allen and uh the investment committee will be ready for it. >> They will. I I'm glad um like I said in the interview, I'm really glad that we talked about Total Portfolio last time and we kind of you know we we we pounded the table a bit on it because we thought it was a great idea and I liked some of the picks in it because you know one or two of them were mine and uh and uh it it did great. So I feel like hey listener there's something valuable for you here just you know to to to be very blunt about it. Um, but yeah, that was fun. That was a I thought it was a great conversation and a great episode of the Stanberry Investor Hour. I hope you enjoyed it every bit as much as we really truly did. Opinions expressed on this program are solely those of the contributor, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Stanbury Research, its parent company, or affiliates.
Using Market Data to Weather Uncertainty
Summary
Transcript
Hello and welcome to the Stanberry Investor Hour. I'm Dan Ferrris. I'm the editor of Extreme Value and the Ferris Report, both published by Stanberry Research. And I'm Cory McLaclin, editor of the Stanberry Daily Digest. Today we talk with our colleague Alan Gula, senior analyst at Stanbury Research. Allan has a very good mind. He's a very smart analyst. We're going to talk about a lot of topics. Get out your pens and pencils, take [music] some notes. So, let's do it. Let's talk with Alan Gula. Let's do it right now. Allan, welcome back to the show. Always a pleasure to see you. >> Yep. Thanks for having me back. >> All right. Well, Corey and I are going to do the usual job of peppering you with questions and finding out what you have to say and and emails before we hit the record button indicate that you have quite a bit on your mind. Um, actually, so maybe we should just like kind of jump into the deep end actually. Is there one thing you you sent me a list of stuff that you're thinking about which didn't surprise me. Um, is there one thing right now that really is kind of either bothering you or that you're really excited about among all the topics that you sent? >> Well, I I think I have some growing worries. Um, we've been um, you know, we've been cautiously optimistic and u trying to just look for opportunities. But yeah, there are some there are sort of three three things that I'm I'm watching and worrying about. Um it's not like Defcon one yet, but um yeah, just uh you know, like cash levels, I think credit spreads are really tight and um like high beta stocks have have really carried this rally. And so those are some of the things I'm I'm watching. You know what I want to know? As soon as you say that list, what I want to know like how I've said I've said things almost exactly like this. I've been saying this stuff for like off and on since like 2017. You know what I'm saying? Like h how long have you felt this way? How often have you felt this way in the last, you know, three years or whatever? >> No, it's it's it's this is new. This is uh this is just like the things that I'm I'm looking at >> and uh yeah, maybe maybe we can get into the cash levels first because you know we often hear there's this seven or eight trillion dollars of cash on the sidelines uh in money marketines, right? Cash on the sidelines. Yeah. >> I just think it's it's uh it's mostly a myth. And first of all, if I have cash and I buy a stock from you, then you have the cash and you know that cash just went from one sideline to the other. Um, plus if you look at uh the aggregate amount of assets in money market funds over the long term, it just it just grows ever larger over time. And there's some variability, but basically the money market assets generally grow with the economy. And uh plus there there's a lot of financial institutions, corporations that use money market funds. It's not just investors. And um it's important to keep in mind that the money market fund whether it's a mutual fund or ETF that's just the wrapper. Um the underlying assets are largely uh treasury bills and the amount of T bills outstanding is is a function of the the federal debt and treasury's preference for long and short long or short-term issuance. Um so it has nothing to do with investor preference. And uh lastly, you know, when you when you look at the overall money in the economy, like the Fed uh the Fed controls base money, the monetary base, and then the overall amount of money in the economy is is is a function of commercial bank lending. >> And so none of that is really none of that is is predicated on um you know, what investors are doing or sentiment. And so um I think if however if we look at subsets of investors and their cash levels and I think we can get a a gauge of sentiment through that. So there and I know that survey quality surveys um are polarizing like the survey quality especially for economic data has has deteriorated but um there are a couple surveys that I still like and one of them is uh the Bank of America um it's Bank of America research they have their fund manager survey that they do monthly. >> I knew I knew that's where we were going. Yeah. >> Yeah. and and there's it's 200 or more institutional money managers surveyed and several hundred billion dollars in in assets under management and uh and even though these are uh professional money managers they're typically wrong at uh at turning points and you know specifically they tend to hold a lot of cash at the lows in the in the stock market and um I have a a chart of the the the fund manager survey cash levels and uh you can see maybe if we can focus on the 10 years. So, this goes back pretty far, but in the last 10 years, the the uh the jumps in cash levels correspond with lows in this in the stock market. And so, cash levels spiked um in late 2015 and 2016. That was a great time to buy stocks. Cash levels spiked uh during the COVID crash in April 2020. So, jumped from around 4% to 6%. Um and then cash levels uh fell back to down to 4% during that bull market and then um cash levels rose into October during that that b that bare market um cash levels rose to 6% uh by October 2022. >> It's almost like you're telling me these institutions are run by human beings, >> right? [laughter] Exactly. And uh well this this sort of makes sense like if if everyone if this is this is why the the market has bull markets bare markets it's it's it's a function of all these investors uh you know moving in and out of the market. Um, so yeah, like >> and right on this chart too, like the when cash levels get get low, right? That's what you're talking about now. We're looking at >> Yeah, cash levels are now now low. It's down to 3.3%. It's the lowest on record for this survey. And uh this is it's like it's not a catalyst. there's we we still need to see a catalyst, but this is sort of worrisome where there's there's not a lot of cash on the sidelines. >> It's it's it's sentiment based on, you know, actual investor actions. In other words, not like they're saying what they think the stock market will do. They're saying it by the small amount of cash they're holding. So, >> Right. >> Yeah. >> Right. And >> it's what I would call real sentiment. >> Yeah. And the the this also mirrors what's what going on in retail accounts. Um there's another survey so run by the American Association of Individual Investors AI >> and uh they they ask well are you are you bullish or bearish and that's that's fine but there's also an an asset allocation survey which they do um which I think is even better stocks bonds and cash and and uh here's the cash component and uh it's similar behavior as the as the institutional survey um retail investors were they generally hold a lot more cash but retail investors were holding a lot of cash at the April lows in 2020 um or March uh March 2020 lows the COVID crash >> uh and then also holding a good amount of cash at uh at the end of the bare market in 2022. So >> now cash levels have have unsurprisingly fallen. Um these investors have deployed a lot of their cash. are still have, you know, a good amount, but 15 uh 14 15%. Certainly, if this gets below 14%, that's going to get me uh more worried. But yeah, we're getting to the point where um you know, it just seems to me riskreward is not not really that all that great. >> Yeah, I love this chart. You the spikes tell the whole story. It's like late 2018, COVID, bare market, tariff tantrum. The four spikes that I'm see You know, people can't hide what they're doing. They could call themselves long-term or what a contrarian what they can't hide it, you know. >> Oh, well, >> right. And the dip in like 2021 >> into because that's really when you know that was when the real mania phase of uh you know when all the techs and the meme stocks and everything were happening before the bare market began in 2022. So you see that that's an early indicator of what could come. >> Okay. So, let's do the credit spread thing. I want to hear about this. We um we talk with Mike Debbios periodically, Stanbury's bond guy, and you know, I've probably put the credit spread chart in the digest, you know, two or three times over the past few years. Um what do you see when you look at this? How are you feeling about this? Is it another like sentiment, real sentiment type indicator? >> Yeah, I think it's it's a it's a good sentiment indicator. Um, and just for people out there, so credit spreads are the additional yield that investors demand above risk-free treasuries. That that yield spread compensates investors for the risk of default. And uh, yeah, you're right. Credit spreads are sort of like a sentiment gauge in the in the credit market. When spreads are wide, there's risk aversion. And when spreads are tight, there's there's risk-seeking. And right now, spreads are exceptionally tight. There's not a lot of worries in the credit market. um bond issuance, you know, the credit markets are wide open. And so, uh for intermarket analysis, I I like to look at tripleB credit spreads because, you know, and you know, I know Mike looks at high yield spreads, too, but um you know, tripleB is it's the uh it's the largest tier for corporate bonds and around half of S&P 500 companies are rated triple B, whether it's triple B plus, triple B, or triple B minus, which is the lowest investment grade wrong. And uh yeah, so tripleB spreads are below 100 basis points, nearly the tightest of the past five years. And so riskreward is I think poor in investment grade corporate bonds, but that also suggests riskreward is is poor in equities because everything is connected. Um and so what's interesting is um credit often leads equities. So in 2021, uh the tightest spreads were actually in the summer and fall of 2021. Um and then the stock market peaked uh at the very beginning of 2022. Um so spreads had widened already giving a big negative divergence. And uh so we could see we could be seeing something similar um like a similar signal now with spreads having been their tightest last September at 93 basis points in tripleB and um and we're slightly wider than that now. So but overall this is uh this is painting a similar picture where it's telling me that it's not a good time to be adding to risky positions. >> Right. And it I didn't realize it was the largest tier. I I don't I I always looked at TripleB and never never understood exactly why I was doing it. But that's a pretty good reason. And just for our listeners sake, like this is >> one way to think of this is that you are you're going up the capital structure. >> So Allan said, you know, the the credit problems preede the equity market problems. Um you would think you I would think it would go the other way around, right? because the riskier layer of the capital structure ought to kind of go south first. Um I wonder why that is. Should we even should we even ask that question? >> Yeah, it's it's a good question. I think it could be just a function of um yeah I think in general uh fixed income investors are more risk averse and so if there's if there are things that are going wrong um there's they're sort of you know very attuned to what's going on in the economy what's going on with with the underlying fundamentals and um and so if if yeah it's and they're less prone to fear of missing out and and things like that. So yeah, if uh that could be why bond it's not always the case, but yeah, that could be why often credit uh gives you this early warning signal, >> right? The more risk averse, I think that's the answer. That's it. And you know, generally some people say, well, the bond market is the smart money. Well, you know, dumb things happen in the bond market, too. >> Yeah. >> But >> well, >> the analysis tends to be uh more less forgiving, I think. Yeah, it's uh not that the Yeah, I don't I don't I don't really think that uh one group is smarter than the other. I just think that um it's and then also if you look you know credit spreads were their widest at in you know in late 2022. So if credit was so if credit markets are so smart, why are they why are they so worried um when you know we're about to have just a risk on uh bull market and things are going to get better? So um it it's uh early warning signal but at at the peak of maximum pessimism, credit doesn't really give you that early early risk on signal. Yeah, that's interesting because I I've noticed like, you know, in shaky times the the credit spread tends to widen but pretty quick, too. >> And then and then the stocks tend to follow. >> But what you just said too at the other end, the stocks will rally back quicker um than the credit spread is when is is tightening again. I I think and not all the time, but I mean what what that example you just gave now is uh interesting. If you're following this credit spread chart for some signal that those are things to look at, >> right? >> Yeah. >> So, the of your three worries, the next one is the one that [clears throat] is most intriguing to me. Um, talk about that a little bit and I I'll probably have a decent question for you at some point here. Yeah, the uh I I'm sort of worried that the the the high beta stocks have have really dominated so much during this this recent rally. And uh so beta is a measure of market risk. And if I plot the the S&P 500 high beta index, which includes the the 100 stocks in the S&P 500 with the highest beta, if I plot that against the S&P 500 equal weight, uh then it shows the high beta has just massively outperformed uh since the April 2025 lows. And >> boy, howdy. Yeah, justic. >> It's not um always the case. So in prior, you know, bull legs, it's not really, you know, high high beta hasn't really outperformed to this degree. Um, but uh and then al also over the very long term, high beta actually doesn't perform all that well. So if you you don't want to be just structurally long high beta all the time. >> Yeah. >> Okay. So wait a minute. I realize we have to say something for our listener. Allan, what what does high beta mean? Why why watch high beta? >> So beta a beta of one is basically a a stock that'll move um sort of in in lock step with the market. So if you have a a beta of say 1.5 then that stock has 50% more market risk than uh than the overall market. So it's if you if the if the market's up and this is just a you know oversimplification but if the market's up 20% in a year um then the you know the high beta stock it might be up 30%. Um and so yeah the and the the high beta this index changes so it's it's if this is the most that if the if this measures the highest beta uh stocks in the S&P 500 that also changes so because the the characteristics of of stocks can change. So um but yeah in this there's there's obviously a lot of tech right now there's some cyclicals consumer discretionary um there's cruise lines and airlines some financials say Robin Hood and Interactive Brokers Goldman Morgan Stanley um and yeah the the chart shows me that uh the bull market the last nine months has has been driven by hyped stocks and that's not necessarily a good or bad thing I just think it um increases the risk for the overall market um on top of um stretched valuations. If this reverses um if high bidded stocks start to underperform then yeah we could have and and we've had we've had very sharp declines in the market um the COVID crash the uh the tariff tantrum and so this could just add uh add fuel to the fire >> and let's face it like the past year um espec you know basically since April you know since the tariff tantrum I I mean there several things have just screamed right precious metals commodities generally you know copper platinum whatever um uh I somebody was talking to me about solar power stocks anything with electricity in it because of AI um you [clears throat] know the sprat nickel fund went nuts um copper yeah silver is going nuts now you know there there's been a lot of just screaming performance in the past almost year now. Um, one of those one of those categories of course is one of the things that you had said was really on your mind which is like gold and silver right now. Um, so maybe there's a good time to segue into that. what what you know when I see it when I see gold and silver I see like ballistic performance and I'm like well ballistic performance doesn't usually just kind of level out and go sideways right that's that's whenever I see a ballistic chart like that I just it's visceral um what do you see >> right well remember uh it's it's amazing how fast things change where just um not too long ago gold I remember gold people were lamenting that gold was lagging because Bitcoin was doing so well and it was like all right is gold is gold dead because um the older you know older people loved it but the younger generations are going to gravitate towards digital assets uh you know instead and so that's sort that's just uh you know completely thrown out the window but uh but yeah the the gold has these secular bull markets. Um it's the bull run from 2001 to 2011 was about a 650% increase but there are there are these huge draw downs. There was a 22% 29% 13% draw down along along the way during that you know secular bull run. And so we're in another secular bull market in gold. Um it's up around 370% since the 2015 lows. we've already had uh a 20% draw down in uh in 2022. And so yeah, we I just think people have to be careful. It's it's there's a lot of people chasing this now. Like we've as a firm uh Sansbury Research has been, you know, it's just in general, our analysts and editors are, you know, mostly bullish on gold. We just we we are proponents of having gold exposure in our portfolios. We've said this for for since the beginning of the you know, the founding of the firm in in 2000 and yeah, it's it's now it's you're getting some hot money come in and it's and I just feel like people need to be careful if they're trying to trade it or um and then especially silver. Silver is just completely bonkers. Um >> yeah. >> Yeah. But uh but yeah, >> that's historically that's the action though, right? It's like gold moves and then silver moves and when silver moves it takes off like a rocket ship and that's exactly what's happening now. And that's like >> it really moves. Yeah. >> Yeah. It feels like late stage, right? Is what we're saying here. >> Well, it's uh yeah, silver, we were talking about high beta stocks before. Silver is like a high beta gold >> and uh and yeah, the the silver picture. What's interesting is the when the Hunt brothers tried to corner the silver market, I'm sure you guys are familiar with that with that story. >> Um, the comics raised their raised their margins and uh that's what's sort of started this like uh uh the conspiracy theory. I don't know. What do you guys think of this uh in silver? What do you think of the conspiracy theory um of like you know this grand suppression theory? I I question it for sure. Like every time I hear it, I go, "Okay, but can you tell me a whole lot more?" Because all I've ever seen is people pointing at price charts and saying, "Oh, there was a big dump this morning." Okay. And and you know, we people have been prosecuted for spoofing in in precious metals, right? It's happened. But but but those strike me as like if if that was if we were going to get a real look at the at the conspiracy coming true, it seems to me that that case I think it was JP Morgan a few years a right that would have blown the whole thing wide open and it didn't you know so I don't know. And the other thing is there's a lot more there's a lot more paper metal than there is physical metal and you know that's going to be a crisis too. Okay, I've heard this for 20 years as well. I mean, I I keep I keep hearing these things and they keep not coming true. Now, you know, sometimes it's like that, but so far it just doesn't seem it's like I can buy all the silver I want. Can you can you guys having trouble buying silver? Have you heard of anybody who can't get the silver they need? No. you know, they're going to pay gazillion bucks an ounce now, but that's the way it goes, >> right? >> So, yeah. >> Yeah, that's my thought. Your last your last point there was my thought. >> You know, you could buy gold at Costco and and you know, silver and you know, elsewhere like >> Yeah, but um the price action is what it is. It's it is pretty crazy now to Allen's point. I will say this when I couldn't get gold during um you know COVID I mean the refiners actually you know in Europe they actually shut down and I was like oh this is it I'm going to go long and of course that was the dumbest thing you could ever do right um because you you actually couldn't get it and you couldn't buy it and the price crashed and it was like oh wow okay I see how this works [laughter] now so um and you know even that it passed and here we are I I I mean I you sound skeptical as well. Yeah, I just think that uh well getting back to the the the the raising margins um the comics raised uh margins in uh for futures in you know in the when the when Hunt brothers tried to to corner the market and then dur in like the the 2011 um that spike in silver uh the comx raised margins then too and now we have we've seen the comx you know, CME Group ComX raised margins um uh for for futures again late last year. And I yeah, I just think that it's there's no grand I don't I don't think there's a grand uh you know, conspiracy to, you know, to to suppress the the prices. there might be short-term games going on that that you know and maybe some some people did some illegal things but uh but yeah we've um I think it comes down to like how how are you navigating this? It's like so we've had and we talked about this last time you should have gold exposure in your portfolio. That's part of it's part of a diversified portfolio. And um and I talked I think I talked about how we we have the our gold royalty plays in the total portfolio um that we like. Um and then yeah, you just have to be careful. We've we've trimmed some of those positions. We added a silver miner, which silver miner, but it has a lot of gold exposure. But anyways, we we added a silver miner to the total portfolio uh mid last year. >> Mhm. and it and it doubled >> and uh so we we've we're gonna we've trimmed that position and we're just managing our risk. We're not chasing things. >> Mhm. >> We're not trying to time them time this too much because, you know, who knows this could continue farther. I do think we're going to have some some big draw down. So, people just need to be careful. Um I think trimming trimming positions makes makes sense. Although look, maybe the the miners the prices of the miners don't reflect, you know, a full confidence that these precious metals prices are going to stay where they are. >> Yeah. By the way, >> maybe that's the case. >> By the way, Alan, congrats on like total portfolio for 2025. Like last I love that the last time you were here, we talked about total portfolio and it had a fantastic 2025. I mean, >> yeah. All people needed to do was tune into that episode, buy the total portfolio, and they're good right up until now. >> Yeah, >> it worked. >> Yeah. Just uh Yeah, just to Yeah. So, the the precious metals positions, they're in in the total portfolio. And just for anyone unfamiliar, um the total portfolio is Stanbury Research's fully allocated portfolio. Um this is a collection of our most compelling recommendations from across our various publications and um those securities are are handpicked by by our investment committee which which I'm on and we size the positions relative to the risk and we do everything for you. You don't have to read any financial newsletters if you don't if you don't want to. But anyways the yeah our precious metals exposure is in our um is in our stay rich bucket. Right. So we have these we think about this portfolio in in like two halves. There's the two buckets. There's the the get-rich positions and then there's the stay-rich positions. The get-rich are you know the the higher risk um positions that are designed to you know benefit from um you know uh prolonged you know sec continued secular bull market in in stocks and and our compounders and and that's where we get our capital appreciation. And then we have our stay-rich securities that are more defensive and that are going to pro provide you know balance during the downturns. And what's great is even though it's what's great is when we have our our stish positions like which include gold and silver and these things when those and they're supposed to be low risk and and protect us in the downside. When those positions just are some of the highest performing in the portfolio uh that's great. So we have we're getting on both sides. we're getting the capital depreciation actually from the staverish position sometimes. Um but yeah, it was uh it was a great it was a great 2025. We um we were up nearly 20% for the calendar year. Um and that return is it's even better than it sounds because we're not taking equity like risk. It's a it's a fully diversified portfolio and our benchmark is the 6040 uh stock bond balance fund which was up um about 13 13.5% last year. So we we outperformed by more than 600 basis points and uh yeah it was a it was a great year. >> Diversification is so boring though, isn't it? >> [laughter] >> Yeah, it's this 2025 was the revenge of the revenge of diversification and I hope it continues but it's and everybody wants it. It's uh >> I'm looking at the chart of the performance the total portfolio portfolio right now and really I mean it looks like the hu the big difference versus the benchmark was in early of last year February March when you know all the tariff questions were really like legitimate and people were were fearing a lot um that's when you really the portfol you're your the return was actually up you know during that period uh to your point, right? >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. We we it's we it's not a tactical like we we make some tactical decisions and short-term things and and but yeah that a lot of that was just just you know preparation and not uh so for example we we added a um and just like looking for opportunities just constantly not being too bearish not being too bullish constantly looking for opportunities in our during our 2005 two uh February 2025 rebalance date. Um and we have a we have an annual rebalance and it just happens to be a February each year. But um we added uh you know we added a water utility to the Stribridge bucket. Um and that actually rose you know during you know as socks started to sell off in March. um that actually rose and it remains strong through the through the Tower of Tantrum. And um and then we have a a pawn shop operator. [clears throat] So yes, we own we own a pawn shop operator in this in this portfolio. And as you might imagine, that's a it's you know, it's a counteryclical stock and it outperformed during the sell-off. And yeah, the it was the it was the stay rich section really really pulling its weight during that uh during that March and April um you know disruption and our >> great I'm going to steal that phrase by the way or maybe Cory will beat me to it in the digest. The revenge of diversification, >> right? >> No, you could have that one, Dan. I'll say no. >> Yeah. Yeah. It's like one of those things. Um actually Corey just said it best. He said, you know, nobody wants it until everybody's just feels like they got to have it until it works and then everybody wants it kind of too late or something. It's it's sort of typical human foil. Everybody's backwards looking. Um but you guys look forward and and uh and it works. [laughter] I don't know how else to say it. Um, so [clears throat] let's see. I I wanted I'm glad that we we sort of um talked about all of this stuff so that we can have a good chunk of time left to talk about what you appropriately characterized in your email to me before we started before we hit the record button today. Um, AI is like the thing nobody can stop talking about it. You can't on a podcast like you must talk about it or people think you're out of touch with reality. And I think they're right, right? I mean, you are. If you don't say something about it, you could hate it. You could think it's a bubble. You could, you know, whatever you want. But you do have to talk about it. And um let's see. I don't have your email in front of me, but you don't think it's a bubble. Correct. Well, it's uh I I think I have a nuanced take which is not good for so everyone wants to want these high conviction uh takes on if yes it's a bubble and no it's not a bubble and >> Alan I just want you to know I want all the nuance you can throw at me. >> Yeah. >> Bury me in nuance. Love [laughter] it. Serious. I'll say well I'll say this the um we we I update like this uh free cash flow yield valuation uh model for the S&P 500 each month and we we started this like several years ago and and it's just a great way to track the overall valuation of the market. I think it's better than than price to earnings ratio or price to sales or cape ratio and and we published that as part of our uh st our flagship newsletter indicators the Stansbur's investment advisory and way back when I just I ran I ran the the data and um so we exclude it's actually tougher than it seems but we so we exclude financials but uh or most financials we include but we still include like say Visa, Mastercard, the exchanges, those those stocks that I think they're financials, but I think they should be included on a free cash flow yield uh you know uh model. But anyways, way back when when I when I created that that chart initially, um we sort of put we put these levels on it. So there's an average free cash flow yield and and I said, "Okay, here's there's a a band for average and then like you know like cheap, dirt cheap, there's expensive and then bubble and and we were really far from from uh we were it was I think it's just an average valuation when I first created it and then we it you know market has has oscillated. It got uh it actually hit dirt cheap like the day of the of the the COVID crash or the uh the day of the low of in like on March 20 23rd 2020. It got to you know dirt cheap. We went from cheap to dirt cheap like in one day and uh and I it's something that it's not it's not doesn't give you any actionable actionable um you know signals because it's just like this is this is well I guess that that is that was a sort of an actual signal but anyways it's it's more just okay how are what are the what are our perspective long-term returns going to be and the higher the valuation more expensive the valuation the lower your perspective ive long-term returns. I think that's actually become sort of a a controversial uh view because a lot of people think valuation doesn't matter anymore. But anyways, this the bubble the bubble like band. We're almost at it. And so just based and just based on that, we are on the cusp I think just based on free cash flow yield for the S&P 500. Yeah, we're on the cusp of a bubble. And >> I don't think it doesn't matter. But I've stopped telling everyone it does all the time. [laughter] >> Yeah. >> I've been saying it for too long, you know. It's just like, okay, Dan, we get it, you know. [laughter] >> Yeah. No, I think valuation matters >> matter until it does, right? >> I think your metric is better than anything I've used. The free cash flow makes more sense, >> right? So that was that. and whether I think the term bubble it's just it gets overused and really what's what um just becomes meaningless because people want to call everything a bubble and I I just don't think that something like a narrow pocket of a narrow pocket of speculation I don't think that that's a bubble like if you have um you know like SAS stocks in 2021 I I know there's like 2021 got crazy I don't think that that was a bubble and I think a bubble is, you know, my definition would be does the market peak um and then not return to the highs for an extended period like over 10 years, >> right? Um >> yeah, I've talked about that a lot too and stop talking about it. But I want to hear what you talked about it. >> But ma my main point is and I wrote a public article about this in late 2025. Um, and it was my first public article in a long time. My main point was that we are the market is extremely expensive, but the and but I don't think we're in a mania phase. >> And the mania phase in late 90 1999 and early early 2000 that was a proper mania. Um, and we're what we're the craziness we've seen recently is not it pales in comparison to that craziness. And uh, so I wrote that article and I basically had these five um, these five uh, categories sections and that showed look the dot bubble had much bigger first day IPO pops um, averaging 70% in uh, in 1999. Um, there were crazier stock price moves like Qualcomm's 2600% rise in 1999. >> The overall index valuations were much higher back then. The top 10 companies are more were more expensive back then. And then the the most egregiously expensive stocks back then were just much more extreme. So the NASDAQ 100 traded the entire uh NASDAQ 100 um uh you know the index traded at like a P of nearly 100. So um it was just and when people when people try to compare AI and things going on now and they say well this is this is the craziest I've ever seen it. Well, it's it's it's not like objectively the the the tech bubble in uh in late 99 and early 2000 was was much much more uh excessive. >> Let me ask you this. One of the things that kind of cooled my jets from always saying the market's so expensive >> is that I took a long-term perspective and I used some moving averages to kind of smooth things out. And generally speaking it really is true that by different measures valuations have risen o the overall level has risen in the past call it two or three decades right so it you know it was I think um we could use anything to me it's all relative and they all all the charts look the same so you can use cape even if you hate it but cape was like 44 or something at the top of the dot bubble and uh you know what if it goes to you if it goes to like 55 or 60 or something the next time around that wouldn't surprise me a whole lot and if the S&P 500 bottomed out at you know I think it was 13 in 2009 you know if it was like 15 at the very bottom this time that wouldn't surprise me I just feel like there's all this um you know software ware has eaten the world and all these asset light kind of businesses. The internet and software have eaten the the the world. Every the internet has touched every business and every human being basically. So those things are less capital intensive, aren't they? And and that would make sense. They get higher multiples, right? And they're massive market caps, so they, you know, they move the overall level up. Seems like to me, >> yeah, I think that makes sense. Um, one of the one of the >> You have to twist your arm on that one. >> Yeah. But, uh, well, I I just think the cape ratio, if you're going to look if if if you're looking at 10-year trailing, um, average earnings. >> Mhm. And when you have the when you have uh companies that are that are growing really quickly like we do now and the S&P 500 is dominated by these large uh these large tech companies which which are growing quickly. So Nvidia's Nvidia's last 10-year earnings are completely irrelevant. It's what's what's going to happen that over the next 5 10 years, right? Um and for a lot of those tech firms, it's the same it's the same way. So that's why I like to look at the the free cash flow yield. Um it's and that is that's also that's backwards looking but um but at least it's it's the current situation. It also factors in capex. So if you have Microsoft and and uh these big tech companies investing more in their um you know their their infrastructure buildout then that may not be reflected in their earnings but it's going to be reflected in free cash flow because you know you you deduct uh the the capex and Microsoft's free cash flow yield is it late last year it basically got to almost where it was during the tech bubble. uh to the peak of the tech bubble. Uh not quite there, but um but yeah, and and it's uh yeah, it's true that these companies have wide margins. That's why I don't like looking at the price to sales ratio because it's that's just it's blind to margins. So if you have if you have margins steadily growing over time, that price of sales just doesn't reflect that at all. And that's why I think the price of sales is just uh you know it's not really a useful valuation metric. >> Yeah. Also has you know trended upward over time. Um you know for for good reason right profits are a bigger portion of sales. So [clears throat] another thought I've had that I you're the kind of person I want to run things by. I respect your mind. I respect your work and I want to run things by you. I have this idea like I noticed um over the past couple of decades like several large banks have shut down all or some portion of their commodity trading operations and Wall Street and investors generally have pushed you know asset light um you know high margin cash gushing kind of businesses and now this past year like all the capital intensive stuff largely on the back of you know AI. So right I get it. Um is has screamed you know like you know like I said nickel miners and and not even like precious metals but nickel miners and copper miners and utilities have done pretty well because of course they're you know the they're mo most of that is you know electricity and and the utilities are flying up. So it seems like and then when I think about somebody like Warren Buffett who said you know his favorite business would be just like a royalty on something else that has you know I put no capital it requires no additional capital you know he he made as much hay of that idea as anyone and then over time he's as he got larger he built in these more capital intensive type energy operations and things and I feel like 2025 was like the revenge of, you know, but besides being the re revenge of diversification, like the revenge of capital intensity, you know, um we're and I've seen these various pieces by some pretty smart folks who feel like finance is is is running headlong is crashing headlong into the limits of physics. Like you can print liquidity, you can't print a copper mine. And we just need more of this stuff. I don't know. That's all I got. That's the idea. It's an outline. It's a feeling. It's a feeling. I got a feeling. I want to know. I want you to tell me of what you think of my feelings. Like a psychotherapy show. >> Um I Well, what if um everyone's so so bullish on AI and um and investors are most investors are um overweight. So like what if Yeah. What if the um you know the industrials and materials those sectors of the economy start to start to lead and AI sort of actually see the MAG 7 have already started to lag. >> Um so that's a big that's a big development and so maybe maybe the rest of the market sort of um can sort of uh carry the weight for a little bit. Um I think yeah so you mentioned utilities the uh a lot of those have become de facto AI plays. >> Mhm. >> And you have to be careful there because well we're trying to yeah utilities have typically been this defensive sector and >> um that that's where okay we're going to it's going to protect you in a >> in a uh in a market uh draw down. But >> yeah I think a lot of those utilities some of the some of them are even in that high beta index now. Um so like constellation energy had had a beta of less than one from like 2022 to 2024 >> and then in the past two years it's it's beta has jumped to 1.5 and so now constellation energy NRG NRG energy new core Vstra those are actually in the high beta the S&P 500 high beta index. >> Yeah and like utilities the return is regulated you know they're like they're not allowed to make too much money. >> [laughter] >> Yeah. And well, there's them up. >> Well, they're they're making more money now right now as we speak in in certain parts of the country, but there's going to be >> there's we're getting political, you know, backlash and whatnot now heading into a political cycle, too. So >> yeah, there's definitely some some secular tailwinds for utilities, but um yeah, and what's going to protect you and we've been long utilities, but yeah, it's you just have to be careful what's going to protect you in a in a uh in a bare market. I don't think >> I don't think it's going to be utilities as much. Staples. Um, if you're looking at, uh, unloved sectors, Staples was >> like in the early 90s, Staples was like 12% of, uh, the aggregate S&P 500 market cap. And during the tech bubble, that fell to like below 6%. >> Mhm. >> And then Staples came back. And that's sort of the function of like Staples being unloved, but also tech uh, the tech value multiplying. But uh yeah, it's a relative thing, but it works. Yeah. >> Yeah. But then Staples grew to in like at the end of the financial crisis, Staples were back to like 12 12 to 14% of the of the overall mark, you know, mark u S&P 500 market cap and now they're back down to less than 6%. >> Yeah. >> And it's like basically at the at that lows from the from the uh tech bubble. And so Staples, I think, is a it's a great place to look for opportunities. Most investors have have just no exposure to Staples. They're not interested in them. And um and yeah, we that's that's going to be an area in our in our stay bucket that um you know that we're going to focus on, try to build that up. And uh >> every time you say the word staples, I wse because I recommended LP like months and months ago or maybe even a year ago. I was just like, okay, a little, you know, early or wrong? I think we're into wrong territory now. Um, >> but [clears throat] this is a good place to ask my my final question. >> Um, I I and I thank you. Like I'm so glad that we got the chance to cover all the things that you emailed us about. Um, because I was really really curious. So, thank you for that. But the final question is, you know, you've answered it before. It's the same for every guest, no matter what the topic. Even if it's a non-financial topic, identical question. If you said the answer already, feel free to repeat it. The uh question is simple. It's for our listeners benefit. If you could just provide them with one takeaway or one thought today, what would you like that to be? Um, so when my when I was 14, my uh my dad opened up a uh a custodial brokerage account >> and he uh and so he helped me buy he helped me call up the broker and and buy my first stock. Um, and so there's this new initiative uh from uh Invest America. So giving giving all kids under 18 investment accounts and um I think that's I think that's just a great thing. Uh my kids were born before January January 2025, so they're not eligible for the thousand dollars u that you know that'll automatically go into into newborn accounts. But anyways, I both my kids have uh custodial accounts. I think parents should open investment accounts for their kids, fund them and contribute to them annually. Let's get those kids investing from a young age, but make sure that you teach them to uh be diversified. >> All right. succinctly put. Thanks for that and a great message. And uh you know, it's always great to talk with you, Alan. I'm glad that we uh I'm glad that we're going to keep you in the rotation, man. I just got to check in with you now and then. So, thanks for being here. >> Yep. Great to hear. Thanks for having me. >> Thanks. >> All right. >> Tomorrow, Stanbury Research is opening its doors and letting you in to a rare behindthescenes investment board meeting. Five of Stanberry's top experts are coming together to reveal their most important buy call of 2026. They'll walk you through how they're navigating today's markets from AI bus fears to the massive surge we've seen in gold and silver. They're going to walk you through what they're bullish on and what they're avoiding right now and their number one stock idea for the year. That's six top idea stocks for 2026 from Stanbury's top experts. But you can only learn if you tune in. So I'm going to send you to stansberrykickoff.com. Again, that's stanberrykickoff.com to see this presentation. I I have a little bit of a confession to make about Allan. Like I just think he's a really smart guy and and that's why I sort of admitted it there in the interview. Like I I need to check in with him on things. I want to bounce ideas off of him because I you know I just like the way his mind works. He's a very good analyst, very smart analyst. And so, you know, that's why like when Allan's on, I want to talk to him about seven different things and take notes and figure out what I think, you know, based on what he says, you know, as well. It's he's he's an important input for me. Put it that way. >> Yes, he has a brings a valuable perspective on on any topic, right? You could just throw any topic at him and uh he has some some argument and data to back it up. Uh and he mentioned what his article when we were talking to AI. um it was if you just Google it, it's five reasons the AI boom isn't in.com bubble territory yet. And he goes through exactly what what he was saying like very detailed on um just why this isn't as wild as um the dot era for example. So so yeah, no it's uh he's he's he's very very good and that's why he runs the total portfolio, right? which has touches everything um that we do pretty much and picks from the best of uh of all our editors recommendation your recommendations and and everything else. So >> yeah, that's an interesting that's an interesting mandate, isn't it? You got to pick from Stansbury and you got to put together a portfolio that really works well under under certain circumstances. In the case of the total portfolio, like any circumstances, um that's a that's a big job. I I wouldn't want it. If they wanted to put me on the investment committee, I might say, "Oh, geez, guys, I'm kind of busy." You know what I'm saying? [laughter] because it's uh it's it's demanding. I mean, you know, we we make a lot of recommendations, right? But we >> Yes. >> We don't make you know, we don't recommend I don't know, do we even recommend I know we recommend more than a hundred stocks as a firm in a year, but when when you've got to, you know, put out new ideas for the total portfolio, um I I could see that, you know, being difficult. I could see myself going, well, let's see. we've only got these three other ideas left and I don't like any of them or something. Let's let's just say so it's it's difficult and obviously, you know, uh they do it very well because they beat the hell out of the benchmark last year as Allen told us. So, and and I'd like the idea of the revenge of diversification. Hopefully, that's not just like a rotation thing. you. I I would like to see that be a better long-term thing because I I think long term it is a good idea. Um for for everybody who's not Warren Buffett, you know what I'm saying? >> Yeah. Yeah. Long term. I mean, if we're talking about, you know, the the high beta being uh overextended right now, I I would I would guess that I would suspect that the the riskreward for that isn't where it was uh a year or two ago. And maybe diversification will be the thing again this year. You know, we're already seeing it with we saw it last year too with out of US stocks into foreign um you know, just with all the geopolitical stuff going on and you know, already we saw that briefly already to start 2026. So, um we'll see, but I know they'll be ready for it. No m Allen and uh the investment committee will be ready for it. >> They will. I I'm glad um like I said in the interview, I'm really glad that we talked about Total Portfolio last time and we kind of you know we we we pounded the table a bit on it because we thought it was a great idea and I liked some of the picks in it because you know one or two of them were mine and uh and uh it it did great. So I feel like hey listener there's something valuable for you here just you know to to to be very blunt about it. Um, but yeah, that was fun. That was a I thought it was a great conversation and a great episode of the Stanberry Investor Hour. I hope you enjoyed it every bit as much as we really truly did. Opinions expressed on this program are solely those of the contributor, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Stanbury Research, its parent company, or affiliates.