Wait, Are We in a Recession??? | Animal Spirits 440

Summary

• AI: The show examined AI’s sustainability and market behavior, highlighting a sharp post-earnings reversal in NVDA despite outstanding results, a classic sign of stretched sentiment.
• Key Companies: NVDA was central to the debate on market tops, while GOOGL surged on Gemini 3 enthusiasm and product momentum; ORCL weakness was cited as a market check on excess.
• High Yield Bonds: Credit markets showed resilience with JNK up YTD and limited drawdowns, suggesting risk appetite remains intact even as equity volatility rises.
• Private Credit: Discussion focused on lending to hyperscalers shifting outside banks, potential risks concentrating in asset managers, and the growing retail channel in private equity affecting fee and return dynamics.
• Bitcoin: Despite ETFs and political tailwinds, Bitcoin sold off sharply, challenging the “digital gold” narrative amid gold’s strength and underscoring crypto’s momentum-driven nature.
• US Housing: The hosts critiqued survey quality and narratives on affordability, noted rising home prices despite more sellers, and highlighted mortgage debt at multi-decade lows relative to GDP and housing value.
• Market Outlook: They weighed the risk of a melt-up versus healthier consolidation, with a contrarian possibility of further S&P gains in 2026 despite widespread caution.
• Platforms & Access: HOOD enabling crypto transfers for NY users was noted as a usability step for digital assets, though daily limits apply.

Transcript

Today's show is brought to you by Invesco. The outlook for the US economy unclear, but investors still see growth potential. Invesco offers strategies designed to help you stay invested and target growth in any market. Whether you're looking for an equal weight approach or midcap exposure that can balance growth and stability, Invesco offers funds designed to help you break your concentration. >> Want to fine-tune your approach? Explore our strategies targeting momentum, low volatility, quality, and more. Visit invesco.com to learn more. Invesco, let's rethink possibility. Before investing, consider the funds investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Visit invesco.com for perspectives containing this information. Read it carefully before investing. Invesco Distributors, Inc., Welcome to Animal Spirits with Michael and Ben. Ben is a trooper coming to you live from Orlando, Florida. It is uh 8:50 in the morning on Tuesday Eastern time. Ben, where is your family? >> I just wanted a break from my family for a little bit. Don't tell them that. No, they uh they went to some a breakfast and so we're at day three at Disney here. I'll give a I've got more Disney thoughts later, but uh we did water park Hollywood Studios yesterday. Today's Epcot and Epcot is you don't need the whole day, so we're we're going to get there late midm morning. >> Okay. Uh where's the water park? Typhoon Lagoon right on Disney campus here. I think they got two of them. But you know the great deal they give is that if you check in and your room's not ready, you get free passes to the water park. >> That is that is good. That is good. >> Pretty good. So I got I've got water park thoughts and Disney thoughts later in the show. >> I can't wait to hear about the people you see at Disney. Always look forward to those. All right. So I picked a really great time to go on record and say that the S&P was going to 10,000. Huh. >> Yeah. For the couple weeks there you said, "All right, enough of this tiptoeing around this stuff. Let's do it." And then the market fell out of bed. Um I don't know. I So talk about what happened in the market with the reversal last week that freaked everyone out for some reason. >> Well, all right. I I respect markets. I don't I don't uh worship at the altar of every move in the S&P 500, but on a day like Thursday where you have this blowout report from Nvidia, just absolutely outstanding numbers. And this is this goes to a point that we that we've made over the years a million times. And it's not lip service. It's true. I'm not being cute when I say that even if you had the news ahead of time, you couldn't necessarily profit from it. In certain cases, you could. Um, but generally, it's it's just it's not that easy because you only know what's priced in uh after the fact. And Thursday was a great example of that. So, Nvidia reported um tech stocks were in a were in a sell-off beforehand. Setup was nice. A little bit of doubt going to earnings and in the after hours, lol. Boom. Smash. Nvidia was up 3% on the day. It was up another 60%. I'm sorry, 6% in the after hours. It was looking to open at 195. Um and it did. And then it sold off throughout the day. Took the market down with it. And to your point, Ben, there was really no news. Now, when the market tops on such good news after such an extended run, often times looking back, that is how markets top. It's not necessarily a they don't ring a bell, but when the market fails to go higher on really good news, you have to pay attention. >> You can't just sweep it under the rug and say, "Oh, well, this happens all the time." No, it doesn't. That was notable. >> Yeah. You're you're a big market behavior guy. like the act. So, here's this tweet from this bull theory which I'm I'm not familiar with, but I thought it was it was interesting. So, this is on Thursday. Today's market dump makes absolutely no sense. S&P wiped out 1.5 trillion in value from the high. Bitcoin dropped to 87,000. Crypto market is below 2.95 trillion. And the craziest part, there wasn't a single negative headline. No, no policy surprise. No new recession warning, no tariffs or bad earnings. Even Nvidia, which makes 8% of the entire S&P, posted a bullish earnings report yesterday. And now the entire pump has been retraced. Nothing that explains a sell-off of this scale. And sometimes the easiest explanation is people are sitting on huge gains and just decided this is a great excuse to take some profits. Now I also think Josh had a thing on CNBC where he said this is just Citadel trading back and forth with Millennium. This is just Elgo to ALGO. And I think there's probably something to that where an Elgo hits something and then it's all computer driven. So you could it's you can say behavior but what if it is a lot of it is just this is a bunch of computers trading with computers. >> Yeah. I don't know if I buy that entirely. I I think it's it's certainly part of it. There's no doubt about it. But the the the type of move that we saw was rare is rare when the S&P 500 gaps open by 1.5%. This one from Luke Kawa did this chart for Sherwood. He said when the S&P opens 1.5% higher only to close 1.5% lower, it's happened in the last 30 plus years basically in liberation day and then 2008. >> Yeah. Uh uh so it doesn't happen. It does that's not a good thing. I mean obviously right it's a it's a scor scorching reversal. A lot of people were saying what a one of the one of the gnarliest rug pulls in the history of uh well history. I don't know just a gnarly rug pull and and it was. Now I am equally as surprised um that there was no followth through selling on Friday and no follow >> because computers have no memory. >> Yeah, that's a good fair. Now all of this is very short-term stuff. granted, but after Thursday, I certainly would have expected follow-through on the downside and we saw the opposite. A lot of buying. Um Ryan has a stat. Ryan Dietrich showed that 444 stocks in the S&P 500 uh were higher on Friday, which is the most since late May. And the Russell 2000 and the equal weight S&P are above Thursday's high. uh just a really interesting, unusual and humbling market. And I think what this tells you is there is a lot of uncertainty. Um I know you're you're there's always uncertainty guy, but there's truly when when you have girrations of this magnitude, there is really a lot of uncertainty about the future and sustainability of the the AI spend, all of that sort of My feeling on the vibes is just that I I think a lot of investors don't want to get into a meltup bubble situation. I feel like we know what that entails and people investors don't want that. So I think the fact that we keep having these little slaps on the wrist I think is a good thing. Here's here's the feather in the cap for like there's no need to worry yet. Okay, this is one data point. Okay, why isn't high yield selling off yet? Why haven't why haven't the credit markets joined this yet? So this is JNK is up 7% this year. The draw down as of last week was 75 basis points for high yield. The junkiest of the right of the credit spectrum. Now you could say, well, high yield isn't high yield anymore. Private credit is high yield. Maybe that would be like the the counter, but >> it doesn't seem like bond markets care yet. >> You're right on both fronts. High yield spreads not blowing out is notable in a positive way, but also somebody would say, Ben, you're looking at the wrong spot. Look at Blue Owl. They're at the epicenter of all this lending to the hyperscalers. Look at Oracle. Look at Oracle's bonds. Look at Oracle CDS. Like, that's where the worry is. It's not it's not these other places, >> right? And the funny thing is is that the fact that Oracle's already rolled over 40% should actually probably make you feel better. That like the market is trying to put a stop to some of this stuff. All right. I got a question for you. So, we've done this many times. The average peak to trough drought on a given year is 16%. Going back to 1928, right? Intraear high to intear low, the average is negative 16%. Which probably might surprise some people. Put your money where your mouth is in terms of people worrying. Will will it be better or worse than that in 2026? Will we have a worse worse draw down in 2026 than average? You think worse? For sure. >> I mean for sure. I would say minus 180 >> cuz it was cuz it was worse in 2025, 2022 and 2020 and of course better in 2023 24. It seems like most people would say worse. I think most people are on in that camp right now of like expectations have gone too far. This is it's too much. I think you can't ever say everyone, but it sure seems like this is consensus now that this has gone too far. >> Yeah, I think I think consensus is the markets are are rightly on edge are rightly paying attention to risk. And I love that. I'm not I'm not cavalier about risk. It is possible that we look back at the day that Nvidia topped on really great news and that was it. That was just and and there's nothing wrong with fundamentals, but 5 trillion, this much earnings, it was just unsustainable. That's possible. And also, >> I think that that would be that would be healthier than a 30% blowoff top from here. >> Yeah, cuz the reason why Ben and I keep talking about it's like, why are you guys such haters? We're not haters. We know what happens in meltups. Meltups are bad. Nobody should want that. Unless you think that you are going to get out at the top of the meltup, you should not be rooting for that. That is not that is not healthy. There's economic risks in there. There's risk to your portfolio. Slow and steady wins the race. And I think that all of the the the reintroduction of risk and doubt is really what leads to sustainable bull markets. So I love it. >> So So GMO had this piece out from Ben Anker and he said it's probably a bubble, but there's plenty else to invest in. And I think that's probably consensus too. Um I listened to a couple of Scott Galloway's podcast, the market one. He talked to Michael Seymble and asked off Deodoran. Two pretty wellrespected guys. And Demoterin was like a full-on bear unlike I've ever heard. Like he was like nothing can explain what's going on right now. The expectations have gone too far. He was saying like get out and find some cash essentially. Seist said like listen there's a there's a case for a 10 to 15% correction which again is average. But his >> you say would you say there's a 40% case? >> But his his words were more concerning than his call for that to be a correction. So again, I think this is I think everyone thinks this now and that that you can't just be a contrarian for the sake of being a contrarian and to your point earlier like you have to respect the market with the understanding that the market is just all of us and we can be stupid. So of course the market can get stupid. I just every this this whole decade the market has made everyone look foolish. Anytime you tried to like say no no no you get too cute and the market didn't bottom here. is going to keep going down or there's no way that was the COVID low or inflation is going to take the market down and there's going to be a recession. Anytime you've tried to do that, you've looked like an idiot. >> The market has been smarter than you and that that is the only thing that it's causing me hesitance to say like yes, everyone is right. This is this is it. This is the dumbest thing. But I So do you trust your head or your heart? >> You could play that game all day long, right? Jump from your left foot to right foot and changing your mind. Uh I think a contrarian call for 2026 and we are going to start to see um outlooks for 2026 as we get >> Oh, we're in the we're in the season for that for sure. People have to like Philipsson December stuff before they get away for the holidays. >> So So I think a contrarian call for 2026 is the S&P gains another 20%. >> I think a lot of people would find that contrarian. Yes. >> Yeah. I mean I think that's very much within the realm of possibility. I would take those odds even. Give me plus 140. I'll take it. Couldn't we see the handoff from Nvidia to Google and like and then everyone starts worrying about Google now? Like right like I don't know. Uh here's a good one from Chart Kid the math that kind of would make sense with this. The PE has gone nowhere in 2025. Uh so from the start of the year to now still at 24.5 times. It's gone up a little bit. has gone down and >> all of the gain has gone from all of the gain year to date has come from earnings growth if not multiple expansion which is really unusual and it goes to the what we're talking about the doubt when you see margin expansion which we've seen when you see technological revolutions which we've seen and it translates into earnings growth with no multiple expansion interesting pretty >> I talked about I talked last week about how the 1990s level of euphoria is never coming back and I found I found this article I guess I wrote about it a while ago it's from the New York Times and it after the dotcom bubble and a lot of these these reporters were trying to do a postmortem of like how did we get so fooled so badly? Why were we the cheerleaders? >> Wait, look at hold on. You you you we skipped over a chart that just goes to the point that >> that frames this conversation. Look at this chart from Bespoke. The rolling 5-year change of the NASDAQ 100 and look where it was in the late 90s compared to today. It reached almost a,000%. And in the most recent period, it never really got above 200%. >> It is kind of funny because that period in the 90s makes this chart hard to read almost. It makes it hard to discern between the periods, but you're right. So the 5-year change was much higher in >> it was 5x. >> No, but I'm saying even in 2021, 2022, it was a better looking period. But that's because you had the 2022 wash out, I guess, as part of this. >> Yes. >> But that's fair. Um, anyway, I don't need to read this whole thing, but this journalist in after the do bubble was saying that like we got addicted to the good news and and it's kind of like we're never going to let that happen again. And it does seem like that 909 1990s level of euphoria is something that is probably never coming back because there's so many other outlets for contrarianism today, which maybe is healthy, I guess. Is it fair that we have so many different forms of opinions today and people have ways of pushing those opinions on others that it actually I don't know. >> No, you're right. So, we talk a lot about how the media shapes the narrative >> and the media is more likely to deliver bad news because um that and Derrick Thompson's been over this. I'm not like blaming the media. The media is in the business of generating money just like we all are, right? Everybody is in the business of making money. That's everybody. >> If you want to blame anyone, you blame the people who keep reading the negative stuff. We're to blame, not the media. >> That's exactly right. >> They're giving us what we want. >> That's exactly right. So, if the people weren't clicking and reading the articles that are being served up that have a negative bias, then they wouldn't be giving it to us. If we wanted good news, guess what the guess what the guess what we would get? We would get positive positive news. That's not what we want. It's not fun. It's boring. Nobody cares. Um, so, so you're 100% right. That environment of of cheerleading will never ever ever come back. >> All right. So, here's one other difference between the previous bubble periods and almost every bubble you read in history, it'll say like the first pin prick was raising interest rates, right? And it's funny because that didn't do it this time. That gave us a little bare market, but the Fed is cutting now. And Neil Duta from Renmack put a penned a piece for Bloomberg basically pounding the table saying like the economic outlook like we need not only a cut in December. We need to signal additional easing in 2026. The Fed know this is like his Jim Kramer moment. The Fed knows nothing. Right? He did this and said we need to cut. The labor market is slowing down. We don't have any government data right now. And maybe that's one of the reasons that it's hard to know what's going on because they I I guess they said yesterday like we're not going to have third quarter GDP. We're we're not going to know. I don't I don't know when it's going to come out. But the fact that we don't have a lot of data to go on right now would almost make it seem like more likely the Fed probably should be cutting more. Um did is it just does it seem obvious that the Fed's going to be late here? But this is the thing again. The Fed is cutting rates into this. They're not raising rates into it. Um you you you mentioned at the top of the show, we both did that like there was really not a lot of news on Thursday that sent the market lower. It's not exactly true. We did get a job support. Um so hold on. Was this the right day? I just want to make sure that my dates are right. I believe this was the day. Just double checking. Uh correct. Yeah, this was the day. Okay. So, Matthew B on Twitter wrote, "Today's jobs report for September shows US private sector employment has declined in each of the last 5 months outside of the health care and social assistance and leisure and hospitality sectors. An occurrence that's never happened in the past 35 years outside of recessions. So wait, are we in a recession or is this just one of those data points that hey, things that have never happened before happen all the time? >> I don't want to poo poo the labor market stuff cuz it's obviously slowing. But isn't it also true that we got to like 3.6% unemployment and the the labor market couldn't possibly get any better from there? Like that was as good as it's going to get. I think that's the hard part to wrap your head around is is this things normalizing. Companies overhired, companies had too many job openings. the 2021 labor market was the hottest one we're ever going to see in our lifetimes and things are going to normalize or no things are falling off a cliff. This is a recession. That's the hard two paths. All right. Um I don't want to belabor the these points about like are people doing better than they think or not. Um I I just kind of want to bring this back too because every time we we talk about this stuff, the last couple weeks we talked about the K-shaped economy stuff, we get a lot of hate mail and comments from people who get really mad that no, you guys are idiots. you don't see what's really going on. Um, someone posted this chart from Vox this week saying that like the median net worth of Americans under 35 was the highest on record in 2022. Um, and then I thought Mike Bird had a really good follow-up to this. He said, "I increasingly feel," and he's from the economist, increasingly feel that the divergence between the widespread perception of economic performance and the actual reality, especially among Gen Z, is going to be an absolute nightmare in the years to come. Uh, total social poison. I think >> ding ding ding. I mean, >> we've Yes. We've lost the ability to because in the past no one had this data to look at. We never talked about data like this in the past. No one ever even thought about it. >> So I understand if people's perception of our take on the K-shaped economy can sound insensitive coming to from two finance dudes who who aren't in the lower K. I get that. I don't think our point in fact my point is definitely not that a K exists. I think that is conclusive. Right. Everybody understands that there are people with assets and people without. >> Yeah. Of course. >> My po my point is I don't like um how it is causing such um toxic political outcomes and arguments because people are people are acting as if the lower K is 90% of the population. And that's my point. Like that part is just not true. It's not like everybody is getting crushed. again being sympathetic to the ones that are the way that the narrative is being framed is that there is the top 5% and everybody else and it's tearing apart the fabric of our society. Like that's the part that I reject. >> Right. Yes. And I have some thoughts to tie that into Disney as well. But it's it's hard to have nuance on this topic and say like yes, we understand people are being left behind. The inflation has hurt a lot of people and also there's more people doing well than you than you think right now. That's hard for people to recognize. And again, the fact that we we have this data now and you can look at it. You look you show a chart like this to someone and they go, "F you." No, look at my experience, my lived experience. Because again, we didn't have this this social media thing in the past where people could look at this stuff and dissect every little minute detail and every piece of data to show, no, actually, I'm doing better than you thought, or I'm doing worse than you thought, or this group is doing better, or this group is doing worse. We didn't have that in the past. >> We never had. People didn't argue about this stuff as much. >> Yeah. >> So, yeah, the this I agree with Mike. This stuff is not going to all of a sudden get better. Like, oh, okay. We got to figure it out. >> It's just going to get worse. >> Yeah, >> I guess we just have to get used to it. >> Yep. I think that's about right. >> And also, no one's having their mind changed except like five people. >> All right, let's talk about the middle class buckling under AI or what is this article? >> Inflation. >> The the middle class is buckling under almost 5 years of persistent inflation. It it's interesting because I feel like there is a group of people who held out whether they were delusional or they just didn't understand it. They like they thought that these some of these prices are really going back. Um so this says after 5 years of high prices, many middle class earners thought life would be more affordable by now. Cost for goods and services are 25% above where they were in 2020. Even though inflation rate is below its recent 2022 high, certain essentials like coffee, ground beef, and car repairs are up marketkedly this year. And then they interviewed a bunch of people, of course, like the Wall Street Journal does. They have these stories. Then they put the personal anecdotes in and that's what makes it hard to refute like how can you refute what this person is saying but they said I think Trump has a hard not to crack bringing all this stuff down and it was one of the Trump voters who said like I thought he was going to bring prices down and uh I don't think it's going to I I look at the inflation rate and it says like we've had five year it says this we've had 5 years of high prices but if you look at it the high price thing yes of course cuz we never we never draw back unless you have a period of like crippling deflation. If you look at the actual US inflation rate, the amount of times that it was above average like and I 3% is average. Okay, the long 100 years the average inflation rate is 3%. We were above in we were above the average from April 2021 to May 2023 and that and now we're back to average essentially, right? We're at 3%. You want to know why I think this has been so painful for people? Cuz we didn't have a recession. As weird as that sounds, you every other time inflation has been that high, it's been brought down only through a recession. And that usually brings takes it down even further, right? Inflation goes way lower. You get a period of um short deflation. So, it's almost like the fact that we didn't have a recession here almost made it more painful for certain people. Does that make sense or is that too galaxy brain? >> I hear what you're saying. I think the reason what we learned is that high prices just are the bane of all of our existence collectively and the inflation rate I know you know this the inflation rate doesn't matter if you were if you look at cumulative inflation on a rolling say 5-year period prices are up so much and you just when you shove 15 years worth of price gains or price increases into a short window of time it takes takes so long. It takes so long for the rabbit to go through the python in terms of us getting used to it. >> Like I'm sure everybody listening like are you are you just used to >> $18 cocktails? I mean it's I guess I am used to it at this point, but it still feels crazy. A $23 salad with chicken still feels shitty and I can afford it, but it it just it feels awful. And for most people that don't have um a financial cushion, it's just like it's it's backbreaking. >> How is your salad chicken $24, whatever it is, it's nuts. >> There are no counterfactuals, but if you look at the actual amount of money we spent, and I don't know what the the estimates are, 7 trillion or whatever, the numbers are all over the place depending on how what you put into the pile. The fact that we had above average inflation for 2 years essentially, I think this could have been way way worse. And I think we're actually lucky that it wasn't worse than it is because of all the supply chain. Like I feel like we actually weathered the storm. Like I feel like corporations weathered the storm so well that I I I honestly feel this could have been 10 times worse. Like with all the money we spent there could it could have been way more chaotic than this. And I think you could have got into like a 1970s situation because that I don't know how people actually survived the 70s. I know people hated it. If you you go back and read and I wrote a whole chapter about the 70s inflation in my book and people did absolutely hate it but there wasn't as much of a microphone to like if that if that situation happened now >> yes if if the 1970s situation happened now there would be like >> there would be a civil war >> it's possible >> like not to make light of it but if if if that happened today if there was 15% inflation >> yeah but but the whole idea of and and some people will kind of quibble with what's the difference between 2% inflation and 3% for the Fed, right, as their goal. I think you can basically take off 2% inflation because nothing is going to stop the train from government spending. Like they're not the government is not slowing down spending that. So I think you you have to get used to this 3% world where for probably 15 years we were in a 2% world and it that doesn't seem like very much but over the course of 5 years that adds up. I think that's kind of the world we're in. Okay. Um we mentioned this before, Google is absolutely on fire. Mark Beni off who is the CEO of Salesforce tweeted this. I think he someone made the point on I'm I'm stealing this and I can't remember who exactly made this point. Um I guess Mark Benninghoff tweeted this. He said, "Holy [ __ ] I've used Chat GPT every day for 3 years. Just spent two hours on Gemini 3. I'm not going back. The leap is insane. Reasoning, speed, images, video, everything is sharper and faster. It feels like the world just changed." And I guess someone made the point that Google gained more in market cap from this tweet than Salesforce is Salesforce is worth like 250 billion. And it was like he spent his whole his whole career creating $220 billion worth of shareholder value for Salesforce, but then a 30 secondond tweet created more value for Google. Anyway, Google is on fire. They are crushing. And if you look at the chart of Google versus the NASDAQ 100, it's really since this summer, it essentially tracked over the last 5 years, it tracked the NASDAQ 100 pretty closely and then since July took off like an absolute rocket ship. >> You know how sometimes you're in the right place at the right time? I was in the wrong place at the wrong time with Google. So, I remember very very distinctly uh I don't care to go back and find the episode because it doesn't really matter, but Josh and I were arguing about Google's future versus chat GBT. And I was on the side that like I just don't think that people are all all people are going to just switch from Google to ChatGBT. You're talking about 15 years of behavior. Like people still have Hotmail emails. Like the inertia is real. And that was my thesis. >> I still have a Yahoo a little Yahoo email. You're right. And so, and so I bought Google earlier, uh, was it last year when it was like really getting down in the dumps that Chad GP was going to eat its lunch, I bought the stock because I didn't believe the story was going to play out. And then I had CNBC on, which I almost never do. I I just happened to have it on during um Josh was on halftime and there was a call in where there was like a memo about chat GBT taking subscriber numbers from Google and the stock was down 8% and I was like even on the trade and I was like ah this is just going to be like a permanent permanent uh black cloud on the stock. I just I don't need to get I don't need to die in the sale. But literally like had I had I not been watching TV and had I just been like doing work or whatever and just like missed it because the stock rebounded pretty fast. I wouldn't have sold. So sometimes you're in the right place at the right times and sometimes you're in the wrong place at the wrong time. >> It was like a two to three week period. People were honestly having this existential discussion about Google being like is this is this it for Google? And a lot of people are taking victory laps now like I knew it. I knew it. I'm glad that you said you sold because I feel like a lot of people at the time there was way more people saying like Google's cooked, right? But I think this is the thing with AI is that okay, first it was OpenAI is the winner, then Nvidia is the winner, then no wait, Oracle is the winner for a sec, then it's now it's Google. Isn't this just the musical chairs thing we're going to play and then it was Microsoft for a while? And and aren't they all going to be like considered the winner? Aren't they all going to have their window, their 15 minutes of you being the winner? Like, aren't we setting up for a year now? People going, actually, Google's kind of screwed now. Wait, they're gonna they're not as good. And I feel like everyone has their day in the sun. And this is why I been saying since the beginning, the best way to to invest in AI if you really want to do it >> and shovels >> NASDAQ 100 the NASDAQ 100 like who's going to pick the winners in this thing, >> right? Yeah, that's a good point. >> I I don't >> I think it's too hard. Um, okay. We talked last week maybe about how the sports books sometimes will cut people off if they're too good. And I we got a bunch of I got a bunch of messages on this. Someone says, "Uh, listen to your betting, Taken Animal Spirits. I'm one of the guys who has been thrown out of all the sports books in New Jersey. They don't let anyone bet who wins and my limits are dropped basically to nothing." Good times. He sent me some screenshots saying that like he tried to put in like a $100 bet and they'd bring it down to like $5. Uh, and I got a messages from a few other people like this and I guess that just shows >> got a bunch in the inbox. It's so it's such [ __ ] >> It just shows I guess how big the spreads are on people who aren't good gamblers. And I I I guess I understand it like people who go to Vegas and count cards in their head, even if they're not technically cheating, they they kind of sus them out and figure it out. I guess that's just the game. But I don't know. Um let's talk about crypto. I think last week you said like what's the catalyst now for Bitcoin? Something along those lines, right? And I do feel like crypto unlike any other asset, especially Bitcoin, is when it's going higher and it's moving higher, the the feeling of nothing can stop this is really really strong. And then when it's going down, it honestly feels like it's going to zero. Like this is I feel like more than any other asset class crypto is. And obviously the people would say, well, the reason is because it doesn't have any fundamentals and it's just all greater fool or whatever and there there's nothing backing it. And I think that's kind of the thing. I I tweeted this out and I can't there are so many people who still really really really hate crypto. I can't believe how many people said like this is all still a Ponzi scheme. This is it's because it's backed by nothing. It's all faith and it's greater. >> Think about it still. >> I I think people in their memory SPF is still there but bigger than that the early promoters were such [ __ ] Not all of them obviously. >> Yeah, there's a lot of scumbags and >> but have fun staying poor was on the cover of the New York Times. >> Now I guess the counterpoint would be listen it's it's a it's a new revolution and there's always maniacs at the early stage frontier and you need to have those loud voices to bring into the mainstream. Fine, I'll I'll stipulate that. But I think there's a lot of that just like just people are just dying for those people to go away and lose all their money. So I totally understand that that mentality and I also understand the mentality of like this most recent time. So every time that crypto has crashed previously and I would call this like a mini crash like 30% is not nothing but it's not 60%. >> What didn't it fall 3540 >> it went from >> so I guess 126 was the high it got to close to 80. I guess that's 30 >> well more than 30. So, but anyway, the point is this. Every other time that crypto had fallen 30% or more, I bought like handily. >> This time I didn't. And in fact, this time to your point like I almost thought about should I sell a little bit more because um it is this weird thing where uh and this exists in all momentum like all momentum stories but especially with crypto. >> Yes. >> That is >> I just the feeling seems stronger. So here's the thing. Like the thing about crypto over the years is that every time it's had a narrative of it's this thing >> and that narrative has been been disproven or just it it the the rule the exception to the rule a new narrative form. But I think this year, so if you look at gold versus Bitcoin, I think this is a real black eye for Bitcoin because this, everyone keeps saying all the macro people, if you want to sound smart in macro, you say this is a debasement trade, right? And the reason gold's up almost 60% is because this is a debasement trade. And uh I just I feel like the fact that crypto has gotten crushed while gold has done well, I thought the whole digital gold thing was such a good that that's one that made the most sense to me. And the fact that it's kind of been disproven this year, anybody say, "Listen, this is one time. We'll see what happens next time." Can I feel like this? >> Yeah. >> I don't know what the I'm gonna ask Chad GBT. >> I think I know. >> What is this trade? >> Is this a dollar thing? >> Yes. It's just like we're >> so debtorand for an investment thesis built around the idea that fiat currencies will lose purchasing power >> either slowly through steady inflation or rapidly through policy driven dilution of the monetary base. All right. Okay. That's what I thought it was, I suppose. >> Yeah. the again the government won't stop spending and >> but the dollar but the dollar is like doing fine so I don't understand is there >> it's kind of like I think it's more like a deficit kind of thing uh you should ask more pies last week that was a good episode about it but I think that is a black eye but does it matter so here's the thing so it's kind of crazy I wrote why I'm selling some Bitcoin and we talked about it here on the show a year ago it was basically a year ago because it was around Thanksgiving it got to 100 and I sold half of I think I sold 25% at at 99,000 and 25% at 110 and I I got out a half of my Bitcoin. And if you would have asked me back then, what do you think the probability of Bitcoin being 150K a year from now or 80K a year from now? I would have said 80% it'll be 150. Like I I'm kind of I'm I'm shocked that it's it's where it is. >> You're not shocked, you're surprised. >> Here's the thing. >> Shocked. >> We put like Ask all put some truth serum into the crypto people. You put a president who's literally pumping crypto, you got these ETFs, you got all everything in your favor and Bitcoin still crashed. Now you could and a lot of people were saying, "Listen, >> all the ETF flows are going to take the volatility out of it." And obviously that's been proven false. >> Uh but with every like you literally have someone in the White House who's pumping crypto and saying like, "I'm the crypto president. We're going to like deregulate everything. Crypto is here to stay." And it still crashed. That to me I'm kind of I'm very surprised. So, I'm looking at my Robin Hood account to see when I sold I sold like a quarter I think I sold like a quarter of my portfolio, maybe a third. I'm not exactly sure at 121,000. >> You top ticked it pretty good. >> Not bad. Now, >> you did better than me. >> Now, um in fairness, a lot of that was if I if I wasn't buying my house, I probably wouldn't have sold. So, a little bit of credit, a little bit of timing luck with with as it is with most most things. >> You turn digital assets into physical assets. Well done. But I'm I'm very happy I was very happy to see that um this announcement on Robin Hooded yesterday. As a New York resident, you can now send and receive eligible crypto. So I went on yesterday, I open the app. I hit send crypto. I open my Fidelity crypto account. There's a QR code. You take a picture. Boom. It's so easy. It takes two seconds. I'm like, so I sent like a hundred bucks just to test make sure it works. >> Like that's this is awesome. This is so >> could not be easier. And then I learned you can only send $5,000 a day. >> Oh, okay. So, it take a while, but at least you can do it, I guess. Is that just a New York thing or is that a Robin Hood thing? >> That's a good question. >> The limit. Okay, >> good question. But yeah, I I I would I am surprised at at Bitcoin's uh Bitcoin's price action. This >> doub having said all of this, you said I this time I'm not buying. Um for the first time, I really stepped in and this week I started buying more. I thought about I I I thought about buying at 80, but I just didn't >> when it got to like 82, I started I like I don't I every time this has happened in the past, hey, >> throw it in my face when it hits 50 or something, but uh I So again, I sold half of it. I It's kind of been sitting in cash. I I and I started buying more. >> If it gets creamed again, like if it rolls over to whatever below 80 75, I'll buy. I will buy. >> But this is another one of those things where there there wasn't a catalyst. What was the catalyst for crypto selling off? There was nothing. There was no story. There was no >> It was the It was the the tech sell off. >> Yeah. All right. Let's talk real estate. Um we're going to talk about some charts here and stuff, but we interviewed Logan Modami from the housing wire and he took a baseball bat to a bunch of the strongly held beliefs and narratives in in real estate. He's not shy about sharing his opinions. And so I think that's going to come out Saturday. And it's it's really good stuff on first-time home buyers and why don't we build more houses? And I think there's some stuff in there that would will maybe surprise some people. Very good stuff. >> The big thing was the narrative is real. Obviously, the housing unaffordability is paramount. It's critical. It's an emergency. We need to do something. Unfortunately, the data that we've been using to help drive the narrative even more than it already is. Not that it needs any help. Uh might be fake news >> is wrong. Yes. the way that he explained the survey that they use to see our young people buying houses. >> Yeah. >> They send it out to 170,000 people, 6,000 people reply. How many of them are actually young people? And so all those things about the the median age of the home buyer is 59 and the median age of the first- time home buyers 40. This is why we were early to being an anti-servey podcast. We nailed this thing that people don't people either lie to surveys or they don't take them anymore, especially young people. That's the thing. Okay. So Red Fin showed that there are more sellers than buyers. They say 37% more sellers than buyers. That's a huge thing. And Logan went through through this again too, saying that like this these charts look scary, but then if you look at Red Fin's own data, housing prices continue to rise. So it's not like this is actually causing anything. So you have to look at cause and effect with these things. You can't just look at the the charts and go, "Oh my gosh, this means housing prices are going to crash." Um, this is interesting. Another one from Mike Bird. He's uh he's hit twice this week from The Economist. He said he wrote about demortgaging of America. This is surp I mean if you would have told someone of this in 2006 they would have thought you were lying. Um as it becomes increasingly difficult to buy a home American mortgage debt is falling to a 25-y year low relative to GDP and a 60 plus year low relative to the value of housing itself. So he did this chart >> that shows yeah housing debt as a percentage of the economy and as a percentage of total housing value has just crashed. And this is the whole thing of, you know, mortgage rates being lower and 40% of people not owning their homes all right because baby boomers have lived in them for 30 years and paid them off. And so again, if you would have told someone this in 2008 after the housing market just crashed and people are underwater. If you would have said no, in like 15 years the whole thing 20 years this thing is like jet debt and mortgage is going to be as low as you can be. People would have thought this is this must be nirvana. This is the greatest housing market ever. What happened? Uh and of course it's not. So I I guess careful, but that's very shocking, is it not? >> Yeah, it's really >> you can't say mortgage debt is a problem. And this I think this maybe more than any other thing about why the consumer has remained so resilient. I think this is part of it. The biggest expense in everyone's line item for 60% of the households has gotten has stayed cheap over this past five years. So, here's a quote from uh the CEO of TransUnion, which would know a thing or two about the state of the consumer. From the transcript, the consumer has proven to be pretty resilient. The consumer is still employed with some real wage gains and a reasonable level of debt of leverage and supporting the debt volumes that they've got with low and manageable delinquencies. So, so far so good. Um, nobody wants to read this article. Hey, actually things are okay. I would not click on that. >> No. Okay, let's talk markets real quick. And I want to I want to mention one thing before we get into some of these stories about private credit and we've been I feel like we've harped on a lot of the potentially upsetting things going on on private credit and what's going to happen. I just wanted to make this point that not many people talk about the fact that everyone's looking for like the bad the downside of private credit, right? How is this going to get investors, right? How is this going to blow up the AI trader? How is this going to whatever? How's this going to wreak havoc on people's portfolios? Um, the fact that these private credit loans are happening outside of the banking system obviously maybe makes people worry a little more, but the fact that it's not JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs and Bear Sterns or Layman again or like the fact that it's happening outside of the banking system is a positive benefit. This is a good thing. Yeah, it's so funny you mentioned that because if these were if these loans were being made by depository institutions um that would be worrisome but I but people say but the fact that it's that it's made in the shadow banking system like that's even worse right I would rather have it not be made by depository institutions where like you know the government's going to have to come now if um KKR and Apollo and Blue Owl ask for a handout from a government if these things do blow up then I'll then I'll be more concerned but the fact that it's happening outside of depository institutions where these these places are pretty well capitalized. They'll either let stuff go. They're used to that or they'll short it up with their own money. Like I think that's a that's a positive. The fact that this banking >> if some of the loans go bad, which guess what some loans do go bad, some bonds go bad, then the equity holders of of of Blackstone will get hit. Very simple. >> Yes. Yes. It's so that that's the that's the positive that we got out of 2008 is that like these are call it shadow banking whatever that it's that's a good thing that it's off the bank balance sheets >> I think imbalance yeah I agree all right this was interesting um I guess saying the quiet part out loud from the Wall Street Journal private equities embrace here's a headline private equities embrace of the mass market alarms longtime investors pension managers worried that surging investment from wealthy individuals could erode their returns now I would say will erode their returns um all All right, here's from the article. Uh, the flood of money from individual investors has become the most frequently voiced complaint about the private equity industry. An internal survey of 70 institutional private equity investment heads identified the growth of retail channel as the number one problem for alignment between investors and fund managers. Um Scott Ramseau, the head of private equity funds at the teacher retirement system of Texas, which is a $221 billion pension system, said quote that the retail versus institutional conflict is top of mind for limited partners. He said, "If we want to enact best practices and protect our own positions as institutional investors, it's best to set precedent now." Wow. What does that mean? The funny thing is that >> get off my lawn. >> The funny here's here's my positive spin on this. The fact that it's going to advisor and the wealth management channel, these stupid and I call them stupid. These stupid institutional investors that have been paying 2 and 20 forever, like the wealth channel is going to bring your fees down. So even if the gross returns are lower, on a net basis, they'll probably be about the same >> because the the institutions just have always been willing to pay these ridiculously high fees. And so you could say like, well, they're going to change these these fund structures going to be interval and evergreen and that's going to lower returns because there's more money. And I think it's you're also going to lower fees and it's probably going to be kind of a wash. There's a narrative out there that institutional investors are going to get the cream and um the retail channel, the wealth channel is going to get the foam, just whatever's left over the >> What if it's the opposite? >> And this person is saying like, "Hey, there's only so much good stuff to go around and if we're if our share classes are are going to be different, but the investment underlying investments are going to be the same, then there's less for us by definition. So, I kind of love it. >> Yeah, this is a good thing. And and guess what? Who's going to get more preferential treatment? The money that you're trying to bring in or the people who already have 40% allocated to you? We don't care. >> The new money always gets treated better. >> Yes, exactly. Wealth channels going to be treated way better than these institutions. It's hilarious that they >> All right, so somebody sent this to us. Michael, this is hilarious. It's a JD Power 2025 US vehicle dependability study. And um there is So at the bottom of the list, this is the bottom five. Number one, number five from the bottom, Land Rover. Number four from the bottom, Audi. Number three from the bottom, Jeep. Now, in my defense, I So, I do have a shitty EV Jeep. But I wonder if like, are the gas What's wrong with the gas powered Grand Cherokee? I had that. I had no problems. >> There was a We got a ton of emails from people saying, "Michael, do not buy a Cherokee." People I don't know. People just have very strong opinions. So, everyone was trying to talk you into a Lexus. Like, >> all right. So, I keep I keep going back and forth. I think I'm going to Lexus. Uh, I think I'm gonna get the GX, but I I don't know. I haven't been inside. I haven't I haven't >> You got bullied into it. >> I got bullied into it. >> But my mom drives one of those GX Lexus. She She loves it. >> The new ones? >> She got a used one. My parents are very cheap with cars, but >> No, but like is it like the new model? Cuz there it like looks new. >> Okay. No, it's the old one. >> Okay. I don't know. I've never been inside. >> So, you're going to be a Lexus guy. All right. Everyone talked about >> I just feel like I feel I just feel like I should make it to December to remember, you know? >> Okay. Okay. You have to you have to ask him if he'll put the big bow on it though, right? The huge red bow. >> But my my my shitty Jeep the the my lease is not up until April. >> Okay. Ask I don't know. Have your car broker figure it out. What do you got that guy for? >> I still have a dent in my fender from hitting the pole. That's just who I am. I don't care. I don't get I don't fix things. Not concerned. those especially those little dents like this. Someone nailed my car and like left it a big enough like a 3-in dent in my door. >> That I would get fixed. >> I I just I don't care. Um All right. I feel like you always hear nightmare scenarios. So, I wanted to just share like a positive situation like we we've and we've heard these of of like 401k rollovers like going bad like the check getting stolen or lost or it takes four weeks to get a check. My wife had a 43 with her prior employer that for whatever the the fees were good enough and the the provider was good enough where I didn't even move it and I probably should have. I just left it in these index funds that it was in. And finally, I thought, you know what? I'm I need to consolidate. I'm sick of having this account here and that account here and this account here. So, I rolled it over to Schwab where where I have all my accounts and I'm consolidating there. And we use Schwab. And the 403 rollover was so her 43b rollover was so easy. I I called the place. I gave the numbers. Four days later, the money hit the account and it was there and they gave me it was it was ridiculously easy. >> That's true. >> I couldn't believe. >> Right. >> I I guess that says more about the system that um it is shocking when that happens. But anyway, I guess it helps that I also had uh Erica from Wealth tracking it like she does. >> She she is the goat. So, yeah, that helps. >> All right. Uh let's do a new let's do um some Disney talk here. >> There he is. You know, I I have a grip pick with Disney. My son and I, all we wanted was a Pluto hat. You know, the Pluto hat with the ears coming down. >> I love Pluto. >> And it was sold out everywhere. They didn't No one had it. How do you sell out of Pluto hats at Disney, so we had to get a Mickey hat? Okay, so um here's a few random Disney thoughts. We're halfway through our trip. I might have more next week. Um there's no recession here. And I wonder if do anecdotes even matter anymore? because every it's so packed here and the thing is you make this point like is Disney full of millionaires multi-millionaires you look around at the people don't always judge a book book by its cover everyone at Disney is not wealthy okay there is so much money to be spent so you get these little bands if you say hold on can I can I just just real quick on the question like do anecdotes matter anymore I was talking about this with Josh in the airport this week or last week when we were coming home and it's just it's packed and I said to Josh I made point like, hey, if there was a recession, if there is a recession, do you think we would know just by like living? Like, would we would we be like, huh, the airport feels way less busy than it used to be. The restaurants aren't busy. Like, I don't know anymore. I I don't know. But back to you. It's a good point. >> You're right. If if the unemployment rate goes from 4% to 6% and there's a recession, is consumer behavior going to change that much? I don't know. Um, so Disney is is bumping and it's a holiday week, so whatever. But it's it's and it's not like any more packed than it has been in the past when we've been here. This is our third trip. Uh, and I am I'm liking it a little more every time. I still complain because it makes my wife angry. I I like it a little more. But here's the thing. Here's the thing I don't get. And I do not bemoone people who there people have different tastes and things that make them happy. >> The Disney adult thing is fascinating to me. I think there should be a documentary on these people. I think there should be absolutely be a Christopher guest movie made. Best in show is my favorite Christopher guest movie where he >> Michael Antonelli is the is is the guy. So, we've we've run into these Disney adult peoples. The first day we were here, we were in the hot tub with my kids and these two adults are talking about how great the parks and they're telling all the kids and and it's just it's this like 40-year-old couple and we went on the Star Wars ride yesterday. One of the Star Wars rides you sit and you get to pick where you sit. You're like, "You're a pilot or you're a gunner or you're an engineer." And you know how they're like, "Hey, we need two up here. We need two." And it's these two Disney adults. And they're like, "We can go, but only if we're engineers. We're not going to be pilots again." They're like, "Okay, stay back there." And I'm just like, "These people fascinate me to no end." The Disney adults I I like they they have all the gear on. They're they they have the biggest smiles. They have bigger smiles than >> you know those people their hearts are pure. >> Yes. Yes. Exactly. They're like they're just they're happy people and like good for them that they just fascinate me to no one. They make it absolutely absolutely make a satire on these people as a movie. Um I think that and obviously this is wish casting. Um if the world was a fair place, Disney would offer discounts on beer to people with more kids. So, if you have one kid, you have no discount. Two kids, h you get like 10% off. If you have three or more kids, you get like 40% off of your beers at Disney because here's the one pe the one person you see at every Disney line. And this was me and my wife yesterday, too. When you're waiting in line and like it's hot and people and finally the kid does something and they won't stop fighting and you go, "Stop it. Stop it. Stop it." You know, one of those stop it. And you like grab an arm. Like of course I I did that, but you see someone else do it and you go like I feel you and like like so I feel like they should just like if you if you see that happening, Disney should run in and be like here here's a Bud Light. >> Just relax like have a beer, calm down. Um one more. The first day I said we went to the water park and um in the wave pool, you know, like they make this big noise like and then the wave goes and it's a huge wave, right? And everyone has the same collective sound when the wave when the wave starts. They go And then afterwards, everyone pops up out of the water and goes, "Yeah." You know, like wait, but I >> my kids like I couldn't get my son out of the wave poolool. He was in it for hours. But like here's the thing. If you're if you're a lifeguard at a wave pool, you know, they have the people way up high. Every time after the wave goes, they're running up and down to make sure like no bodies are floating in the water or dead. Those people are 10 times underpaid. If I'm a teenager and I'm doing that cuz I saw one time a kid was struggling and the the lifeguard had to jump in after them and like swim them to because they were like they couldn't tread water anymore. They they're way underpaid. Finally, one more thing then I'm done with my Disney talk. Uh we had an Uber driver to take us from we stayed at a resort and we went to the Disney resort. We got here a day early cuz flights were all messed up. And this Uber driver was um talking about how he is a private chef. So he's like, "Hey, if you rent a Disney vacation home, I'm a private chef. I can come cook for you." And as he's driving, he's pulling up all his dishes on Instagram, right? And I'm we're getting a little concerned cuz like, hey, eyes on the road, buddy. But he's showing all my kids like his favorite dishes and because I ask him questions. And it just kind of gives me faith in humanity that like I know people are worried about stuff right now. People worried about AI and people are worried about young people, but as a as a species, we are hustlers. Like this guy is driving Uber on the side. He's a private chef. He's telling us about how he has these other businesses he's trying to start. Like people are going to figure this out, right? I have faith in human, >> you know, we've we've figured this out for thousands of years. Like anytime there's a worry, I feel like now people are like, "This is the end." Like I and I just don't I hate that doer mentality. >> Yeah. >> Anyway, I'll meet up on Disney next week. We're going to Epcot after this podcast is done. And my goal is I'm going to drink enough beers at Epcot where my wife has to make a comment. >> So that's the rest of my day. >> Hold on. >> Are you having another beer? Really? That that's me today. Okay. Oh, >> wait. One more random thing and we'll do recommendations. Someone someone DM'd me on on Twitter and said, "Hey, I set up a dumpster rental business 10 years ago and left my job teaching during co the fuel in the industry was a transformational aspect of Airbnbs. Hopefully being long dumpster rentals is the same right call." Uh, so he's saying this this business has been great and I think that's that's a great long. There's got to be a company out there. There's got to be a pick and shovels company out there that does all the dumpster rentals, right? >> For sure. You know the worst part about that? And I'm sure you're going through this if you do some renovation on your new house. Um they put the dumpster in your in your driveway forever and then it's really old and you get like rust pools of rust going down your driveway, you know, cuz they're so old. Like I want a better looking dumpster if I'm going to invest in this. One more thing while I'm on the topic. Are you guys an air fryer family? >> Oh yeah. >> I feel like if you have kids, you have to use an air fryer. >> Yeah. >> I mean it makes chicken nuggets in half the time. Right. >> This this Black Friday, buy an air fryer. >> I mean, the there's I think there's kind of a social media joke of people like love talking about air fryers. Okay. I'm sure there's >> Oh, speaking of Black Friday, so I've got on my Tommy John undershirt. >> Well, I bought one. >> I bought one. You talked me into it. I I bought one. >> Okay. There's two types. There's the cool cotton and I think the other one is called the second skin, which is like a tighter fit, which I don't love. But, uh, so I bought more. They're they're expensive. They're they're like 35 or 40 bucks, but I bought more. It was 30% off. And then I was talking to Chris yesterday. He told me he bought some. They're they're they're now 50% off. Now, for me, I understand that $40 is a lot for an undershirt. I get very uncomfortable generally when I sweat through a cotton. I mean, it's who's not who's not uncomfortable sweating. So, for $35, whatever it is, like well worth it. So, the cool cotton pom johns are are awesome. >> Okay. I got to make sure >> changed my whole train travel. I just I'm comfortable finally. >> Yeah, you do sweat. So that's a >> it's okay to pay for that. Um, so here's my thing on air fryers. And I'm sure there's a physics component of this. Why don't we have giant air fryers instead of ovens? We use our air fryer now way more than we use an oven. Why don't they just have a big air fryer there where the oven goes? >> What even is an air fryer? I just thought I thought it was an oven. >> But why does it cook it so much faster than an oven? An oven, you have to preheat it. That takes forever. Like if if we're heating up pizza versus the oven versus the air fryer, it's way faster in the air fryer. Why don't we have a giant air fryer in our house instead of a big oven? >> I don't know. Were air fryers some new technological breakthrough in the last 5 years? I don't understand. Where did they come from? >> It sure seems like it, right? I don't get All right, let's do some recommendations. Uh, I'll go first. Okay. >> I started The Beast in Me on Netflix with Claire Danes and Matthew Rise, the guy from The Americans, which is one of the most underrated shows of the past 10 years or so. Um, and this the the setup of this show could have been like one of those awful Netflix shows like oh really it's like a there's a mystery like you know new guy moves in. He's rich. He's there's a murder. But the fact that these two are in it and they're such good actors. The very first episode they have a lunch. Did you watch any of this yet? >> Not yet. Who's So obviously Claire Dan is is one of the goats. Who's the other who's the other actor? >> Matthew Rise I think his name is. He's from the Americans. He's they have a lunch scene. They have a lunch scene in the first episode and and it and it's kind of a Netflix show, but their acting is so good. They're they're on just a heater. It's like two two people just so good at their craft going back and forth. It's it's really really good. I I'm into the show. Um >> I'm going to watch. I just haven't started yet. >> You talked me into the Eddie Murphy doc on Netflix and I absolutely loved it. I thought it was fantastic. >> Um he has this great line in there because he's got like 10 kids. He's like, "If you put your kids first, you'll never make a bad decision." And I thought like his outlook on the world was great. It was almost like I think you could make the case at the height of his powers. He's the funniest person of our lifetime. At 19, he was the star of SNL. He was a star of movies and he was also the biggest comedian in the world. >> Yeah. >> And I think he I think he got kind of bored with being funny. And you could tell even in the dock like he could still turn it on if he wanted to, but he didn't he didn't want to anymore. >> But that scene with the puppets at the end, >> oh gosh. But here's the thing. I have in terms of my most re-watched 80s movies, they were mostly USA movies. So, Coming to America was probably in my top five. Most re-watched Asia. I watched it all the time. >> Yeah. >> To this day, I feel like an idiot. I did not know Eddie Murphy was the white Jewish guy in the barber shop. I knew he was all the other guys. >> I had no idea that was him. They showed they showed him putting the makeup. I thought that was okay. There's a random white Jewish guy and Eddie Murphy playing around him. I had no idea that was him. I can't believe I I didn't know that all these years later. >> Wow. >> So, anyway, I I >> Wait, did you like Did you like pause and rewind? >> No, I I just I couldn't I couldn't believe it. I uh but that part was was so but yeah the whole I feel like yeah I feel like there's probably three people at the height of their powers. Will Frell, Chris Farley, and Eddie Murphy to me are probably the funniest people of my life. >> But but the difference is like those those weren't great standup comedians as well. Like he there was >> so after the dock it recommended do you want to watch Raw? So I put Raw and I haven't seen in years. It still holds up. A lot of that stuff that that long ago is kind of like and some obviously some of the stuff some of the words he >> was raw the one of the with with the red leather or the purple >> no the purple leather >> I thought the I thought Delirious was better I think >> delirious is my favorite but raw it's still even though he says some stuff that you probably don't say today it still holds up and it made me laugh out loud multiple times it really holds up still uh finally one more on the way down here I finally watched Wind River which which is a Taylor shared a movie I'd never seen it before on Netflix with >> it's really good. And I couldn't believe all of a sudden two into the movie, hey, here's John Bernthal. But I thought uh Jeremy Rener was really good in that movie >> and his movies are higher quality than his shows like Wind River and Sakario and like his he should go back to making movies instead of 25 TV show. >> Well, he will. He will. They uh Paramount just signed him from for movies. >> Oh, that's good. Okay. Yeah. I wind River like very underrated. I was a good movie. >> Yeah. Hell of a movie. Um I just started Land Man. Speaking of I love that show. It's so much fun. Okay, second season just came out, right? >> Yeah. Um, okay. So, uh, The Rewatchables is on such a heater, at least as far as my movie taste is concerned. So, four weeks ago, they did The Truman Show. Then they did >> I I wanted to rewatch that. I'm going to eventually. I love that movie. >> Then they did Snake Eyes, which I didn't realize that that was a Dep movie. My dad took me to see that in the >> So, I thought I saw it in the theater, too, and I was like, man, that movie stunk. But, uh, >> yeah, I didn't love it. But but in hindsight it's great. Obviously, uh Weird Science, one of >> Here's another one of my 80s ones that's way up on the USA list. I watched Remember the Weird Science show on USA >> with with Van Vanessa? What was her name? Vanessa Angel. >> Yeah, >> I watched that show. >> I did too. >> Uh and lastly, just this morning, I was listening to Two for the Money, which I love that movie. Speaking of gambling. >> Okay. That one to me that is that's like an unintentional comedy, right? I remember that movie where MCA is like lifting weights the whole movie. Yeah. I mean, it's ridiculous. Yeah. It's ridiculous. >> A gambler on a heater. >> Yeah. >> Um No, he he plays one of those guys like in like a gambling boiler room, >> right? >> John Anthony and then he gets his own show and you know, you can imagine what happens. All right. Um I I did I I am slogging through and I shouldn't say slo because it's not a slo, but it's just there's six episodes. Mr. Scorsesei on Apple. Like if if if if you're a movie fan, and obviously if you are you like all you love all of his movies for the most part, it's it's worth watching. like some of the behind the scenes stuff with um >> Are they each like an hour long? >> Yeah. So, it's it's long, but Dairo is all over it. There's one >> I mean, The Irishman was three and a half hours. So, does it surprise you that his documentary is six hours? >> So, they go they go into and I'm only three episodes in, but they go pretty deep into the making of each of his movies like chronologically. So, Mean Streets, which was I think it's which was which was his first big movie with uh Kaitel and Dairo and it wasn't big at the time. I think it was like in 1973. I don't know if anybody saw it in real time. Uh Dairo plays, it's very much based on his life, like growing up in the streets, and Dairo plays a scumbag guy who is always, you know, um borrowing money and not paying and just a, you know, a dirt bagg. And uh in the dock, they bring on camera the guy who it was based on in real life. And you could only imagine the character that this guy was. At this point, the guy's 80 years old. Um, orange tan, bright white teeth. Uh, anyway, it's it's good. It's, you know, if you're a movie person, it's Marty. It's Marty. Yes. Yeah. >> Okay. I'll probably watch it. >> It's good. It's worth watching. >> All righty. Um, so >> you want to go real quick go through Michael Sea's movies here? >> Sure. I mean, you really don't want to go back to Disney. >> It took too long to get my kids breakfast, so I got time. Um, I just thought it was funny that his he ranked his movies in the 21st century, uh, and the number one film is about island. >> No, no, no, no. That's not how he did it. It goes by year. It goes by year. >> Oh, okay. Okay. Okay. So, he's >> So, why don't you why don't why don't you start with Momento and then go in reverse chronological order. >> Okay. Can I just pull the ones that I know? >> Sure. >> Wait. Momentum, Mahaland Drive, Adaptation, which is a very good movie. Charlie Coffin one, Lost in Translation. >> Wait, Charlie adaptation. That's Nicholas Cage. >> Yeah, Charlie Coffin wrote that movie. It's a good one where he plays twins. >> A very good movie. I love that movie. >> Uh, A History of Violence. Uh, I'm sorry, not A History of Violence. All of both VGO Mortensson Eastern Promises is one of my all-time favorites. Horrifically demented movie. You've seen that one. >> Yes, there's a scene in there that's uh >> Holy [ __ ] The shower scene. >> Okay. In Bruge. That That's one of my favorites. >> Bruge is good. >> He's got a good He's got a good list here. Uh he's got >> I've never seen it I've never seen it inside Lu and Davis. >> That's a that's a hard watch. So is the lobster. Uh so he's got some uh interesting ones in here. Uh and then his latest So and his latest one is The Ballad of Walls Island, which I recommended to my wife. I said, "You've got to watch this." And she watched it on a plane ride down and said, "I absolutely love that movie." >> Well, I like that. Or is that not for me? >> No. Total bad movie. That's not a movie. It's It's >> okay. I'm sorry. I have seen Inside Lu and Davis. I don't like this movie. This is one with with Oscar Isaac. This is not for me. This is a this is a you movie. This is a film. So this is a you movie. >> But even I I didn't I didn't care for it. >> What I was thinking was I have I've never seen Walk Hard the Dewey Cox story. >> Okay. Neither am I. I've I've heard people who swear by that one. I've never seen it yet. >> People like that movie. >> Anything else on here that you like? >> Yeah. This he's uh you guys Oh, Eternal Sunshine. You definitely like that movie. >> Yes, that's a great movie. Yes. I I The Last King of Scotland I think is really good, too. >> I don't think I heard of that. >> I enjoyed that. Uh, no. I want to ask her. >> Yeah. Yeah. I saw I saw that. >> Does mean? Yep. >> Yeah. >> All right. >> Okay. Good list. Ben list. >> Yep. >> All right. So, so what happens now? You go meet your family. Where? They're at breakfast. >> They went to a breakfast, which is fine with me. Uh, I'm going to go meet them for breakfast. We're going to go to Epcot. And my wife has everything planned out. Oh, one more one other thing I didn't mention about Disney that I meant to mention before. Disney is the embodiment of the K-shaped economy. Okay? cuz you can wait in line for two hours for a Disney ride, but if you pay for I don't even know what they're called anymore. There's a lightning pass and there's a premium pass and there's a fast pass. So, my wife paid I don't know, she figured this all out. God bless her. She did all the planning for this. She's got it all figured out. I I just He keeps trying to talk to me about the plans and I'm like, "Just tell me where I need to be and when." But you can use these Lightning Lane passes to cut everyone in line. So, we got them for a couple of the biggest rides yesterday, right? So, my kids, we walk right up past all this line of people right to the front of the line, get on the roller coaster, ride the roller coaster. And my kids love roller coasters, which I which is great cuz so do I. Um, but then we have to wait in line for the next ride and they go, we have to wait. We can't just cut everyone. I'm like, listen guys, but that that is you almost feel bad cutting by. It's like sitting in first class and everyone else and coach is walking by you. When you cut in front of everyone in line that and just because you pay money, that's a K-shaped economy right there. But guess what? All the people waiting in line, they're still having a great time. They're still enjoying themselves. They're having fun at Disney. They're just waiting a little longer. >> Yeah, >> that's the K-shaped economy. >> Some people cut in line. Some people wait in line. >> Okay. All right. We'll leave it there, Cutter. Uh enjoy the rest of your at Disney. I uh I can't wait to go. I'm going uh going in a month, so you'll tell me the latest attractions I got to go see. All right. Thank you to Duncan and the entire production team. Thank you very much, everybody, for listening. Have an incredibly happy Thanksgiving with your family. This is uh a great time of the year. At least as far as I'm concerned. Animal Spirits of the Comp and >> everyone watch planes, Trans and Automobiles at least once. Have to watch it. >> animal annals of the compoundnews.com. We'll see you next time.