Western Leaders Fumbling SILVER Setup – 'Profit Off Their Stupidity': Mario Innecco
Summary
Silver Strategy: China’s record silver imports and export limits, plus India allowing silver as loan collateral, support a bullish case for silver as both industrial and monetary metal.
Monetary Demand: Central banks and Middle East sovereign funds are reportedly buying physical silver and shares of silver miners, signaling remonetization momentum.
Gold Outlook: Guest expects a Gold Bull Market toward $6,000/oz, citing bearish sentiment, ongoing Eastern central-bank buying, and supportive Wall Street forecasts.
De-dollarization: Petro-dollar erosion accelerates with yuan- and gold-linked energy trade among BRICS and the Global South, shifting reserves toward gold.
Bond Market Risks: Rising global government bond yields tighten collateral and threaten equities, while monetary easing and QE would further propel hard assets.
Hard Assets Rotation: Overvalued mega-cap tech contrasts with underowned commodities, precious metals, and miners, setting the stage for capital rotation.
Critical Minerals: Export controls, sanctions, and national stockpiling underscore a multi-year scramble for silver, rare earths, and other strategic inputs.
Geopolitics & Oil: Escalation in the Middle East has pushed WTI above $100, feeding inflation and supporting a broader Commodity Supercycle.
Transcript
Hello everybody and welcome into commodity culture where we break down commodities markets, sound money principles and geopolitics. All with the goal of making you a better investor in the commodities sector. My name is Jesse Day. Today is May 4th, 2026 and I'm thrilled to welcome Mario Inco to the show. A veteran of the investment industry who worked for major financial institutions in London for over 20 years and currently the host of the Manco 64 YouTube channel. Mario believes Western leaders are falling way behind China when it comes to accumulating silver as a strategic and monetary asset and have their focus in all the wrong places as they struggle to hold on to their fading hegemony in an increasingly multipolar world. The good news, as Mario puts it, is we can profit from their stupidity before the paper market collapses and supply demand fundamentals kick in, sending silver prices soaring. Mario also explains why he thinks the petro dollar is as good as dead, why the next stop for gold is $6,000 an ounce, and so much more. So, strap yourselves in for my conversation with Mario and Neko. Mario and Ekko, it is great to have you back on Commodity Culture. I want to start by discussing China's record imports of silver in March and what this combined with their restriction of silver exports starting this year means for their long-term silver strategy. I just had Eric Young on the show and he thinks a big part of it is allowing China to diversify its energy away from hydrocarbons and more towards EVs and towards solar and thus reduce their dependency when it comes to an energy standpoint. Wondering what your thoughts are on on why you think China is placing such a big importance on silver in recent times. >> Well, they they like the US have placed silver on the list of critical minerals. So, uh, yeah, and since the beginning of the year, they've put a limit on on exports. And I agree with Eric. I I had him on recently as well. Um, silver is very important for not just for uh alternative uh energy like uh solar, but also people are finding out you need a lot of silver for AI, for all the high tech, for uh batteries. Uh there is a I think uh uh is it a Samsung uh there is a B or in Japan there's a battery free a state free state battery or something solid state battery uh you know I'm not a very technical person I'm more of a macro but yeah where you use a lot of silver and uh batteries for electric cars like they can run a lot longer and the charging is a lot faster. So yeah, it's a a matter of uh uh technology uh use and also energy, but I also think it's for um it's part of the monetary uh equation as well. I I've been hearing for the last six, nine months that sovereign wealth funds and central banks in the Middle East, they've been buyers uh not just of physical silver, but they've been uh buying uh shares of silver mines. Yeah, there's a real rush for silver. Uh, I guess the only people that want to get rid of silver and keep the price down are people in New York and London who trade it as a speculation, but all they're doing is giving it away to our supposed uh opponents or enemies. Not that I'm saying the these people are our enemies, but that's how uh we're supposed to uh look at them. >> Yeah, some great thoughts there. I believe it's Samsung in South Korea that is developing those silver batteries. Now, you recently posted a video on your YouTube channel titled China and bricks to follow in India's footsteps to remonetize silver. Walk us through first how India is remonetizing silver and why you think China and bricks nations will be following their lead. >> Yeah, I think I just mentioned a few minutes ago that more and more countries are buying silver as a monetary asset. uh don't know you probably heard uh last year uh India announced that from the 1st of April this year uh you could you can use silver as collateral for for loans. So I think that's what it's about and uh I I think China is going to do the same. uh just think of it as uh more liquidity to uh the uh yeah the world trading system if you just have gold as a reserve it yeah there's less and but if you add silver there's more to it so I think uh the these countries they have a tradition of uh looking at gold and silver as money so I'm not surprised that that that u tradition is awakening a reawakening especially because uh the dollar which is really a uh well ever since 1971 is nothing but like a paper promise that can't be paid back uh you know it's like uh you can't extinguish a a debt uh that is a debt a money that is a debt so I think these people are starting to wake up and uh I I think China now u is more determined than ever seeing that the US has put some uh sanctions on um on some big important refineries in China and indirectly as well uh sanctions on um ship builders in China but uh China China's government announced to these uh because these are not stateowned I don't think that were sanctioned they announced to to these companies yeah ignore the US sanctions because we're sovereign and independent and we deal with with whom we want. So yeah, I think silver is a big part of that. I mean, it's it's just so comical to see a nation that unprovoked started a war in Iran and then is now trying to sanction China because they bought Iranian oil. So that's bad. I mean, the whole thing is just so incredibly backwards. I I wonder what your thoughts are though on uh the silver situation in the United States because obviously also declared a critical mineral. Do you think they could be waking up to this monetary value in silver as well? Do you think they're looking at it as strictly an industrial commodity? And do you think that they're paying attention to what China is doing with its ramping up of silver imports and and export restrictions? And and if so, how do you think they could counter it? That was like 10 questions in one. I'm sorry. I I do I do that sometimes, but I'd love to get your overall thoughts there. >> In terms of uh how the US perceives uh silver, I I think the general public, a lot of them perceive it as money. You know, the silver stackers, the u the uh let's say the administration not so much. I think they look at it more as a critical industrial mineral. And I think uh yeah, they're like uh they're spreading their wings, so to speak, down south in their backyard in uh Central and Latin America for more silver properties because and maybe also uh north of the border in Canada, even though I don't think Canada has that much silver. So, um yeah, I I I think uh it's uh all part of this drive uh for securing critical uh minerals and rare earths and Donald Trump, President Trump signed loads of executive orders right off the bat when he took over last year and uh it's only going to continue. And it's not just the US that's like uh you you said it's comical that they start aprovoked war and then they sanction uh China, right? But I heard the EU as well is sanctioning China for selling stuff that could be used uh for making arms uh to to Russia because of the war in Ukraine. And now I I think China's threatening to put curbs on on their exports of rare earths to Europe as well. So it looks like it's a western disease. Um yeah, the our leaders and politicians as usual uh are clueless. Uh but that always creates opportunities uh for you know if you're on the lookout for those things profit from their stupidity I guess. And uh that's why I I think there's a a rush for these uh critical minerals because uh China who's been um yeah really grown into becoming a huge uh producer of not just rare earths but all other things. Uh they're closing the door and uh I don't know if you remember uh what was his name? Posar um from credit Swiss Zultan Posar in 2022 he he warned that we're going into like a commodity a period of commodity wars because the world is delobalizing so yeah I think it's only going to continue and I I I think we are on the right side of things here especially with your channel commod commodity culture right uh and uh my focus as well on precious metals and uh commodities as well in general. >> The sponsor of today's episode is Arc Silver Gold Osmium. Owner Ian Everard is praised even by his competitors as one of the most honest and level-headed bullion dealers in the United States. They have some great prices. You can see some of them displayed right now on screen. Take advantage of these specials today by reaching out to Ian at 3072649441 or by email at IanarchsGgo.com. Make sure to tell them, of course, that Commodity Culture sent you. And now back to the interview. Well, you also recently discussed how gold's pullback could be the last buying opportunity before we go to $6,000 an ounce. What What are the signs you're seeing that gold could be headed back up? because obviously we saw all-time highs in January this year. We've seen the metal drop and kind of consolidate sideways for some time now. What What do you see as that next catalyst that could bring us to 6,000? >> Well, I think just the the sent the sentiment is really bearish and whenever that happens uh things uh yeah go the other way. Um and uh the consolidation is like uh discouraging a lot of people. Uh and that's a good thing because we we got a little bit uh too uh much yeah too exuberant maybe in in January towards the end of January. And uh also u I saw recently that Turkey they're buying back some of the gold that they sold. um um because of the war. Uh and uh they actually said that um the reason they're buying it back is because it's very good insurance and they were able to use it during the war to support their currency and uh yeah and I I think um China is going to continue to to to buy and uh yeah as I said the the east is awake to uh the value of precious metals uh but not the uh the best. Um, yeah, I just think, uh, yeah, we've been consolidating for almost 3 months now. It might take another month, just like last year. I think if it was from April, uh, to August, we had a a consolidation between, I think, 3,000 and 4,200. And eventually it broke out and, uh, we we really uh went on a rampage. So I think it's the same kind of scenario like a up and then consolidation up and this has been happening for the last uh 18 uh months to 24 months. Several big financial institutions are echoing your call for $6,000 gold and even higher. We've got JP Morgan forecasting 6,300, Wells Fargo 6,100 to 6,300. UBS 6200 with the potential for 7,200 if geopolitical chaos continues. Bank of America 6,000. I mean, with Wall Street being this bullish, could $6,000 be too low of a price target? And do you expect more institutional money to pour into the gold market as a result of these big calls from Wall Street? >> Yeah, Wall Street is always very conservative on their calls for uh higher gold price. So yeah, it is possible they're being too conservative on on these calls. And um I mean my uh call for 6,000 is just like is not like the top that I see. It's just like a uh intermediate top maybe uh in a few months or so, but I see a lot higher. And yeah, they they've always had to revise go going back a few years. And I think they've learned their lesson and that's why they they're calling it a little higher now. But they might even not be uh high enough you know these calls. Uh as for institutional uh buyers I think they we are seeing already I think you know um the smart money is going into gold. It's more the U retail investor who's still focused on on the NASDAQ, on the S&P. We just made new highs on on those. I'm not saying that I'm bullish the stock market because I think in terms of gold, the stock market isn't really doing that well, even though it's rebounding right now. But, uh, there's very little interest still in hard assets, commodities, precious metals, miners. So I I I still think we have a long way to go and I don't see the fundamentals changing to make me uh like change my views. I don't see central banks uh acting hawkishly like raising rates or stopping QE. Uh if anything, they're yeah, they're really uh waiting for the chance to cut rates. uh but it it seems to be dependent right now on on this uh conflict in the Middle East which hasn't been resolved. What what is your current view of the health of the pro dollar as Iran and China trade oil for renmanb? Indian refiners now purchasing large volumes of Russian crude using both yuan and the UEA dirham and Gulf states are reportedly discussing yuan for oil and gas deals up ahead. As I mentioned, I just spoke to Eric Young. He's also saying that he thinks that gold for oil is going to be a trade that is going to ramp up moving forward as well. Is the petro dollar under threat at this point? Well, I I think uh the petro dollar is almost as good as dead right now because uh China China's economy is like they produce real things, they import real things, they u they like uh they take raw materials and they they produce finished goods and sell it. And I mean they they do everything really well and they trade with so many countries that if China the dollar rises and uh uses more gold and maybe even silver and uh other currencies I think that's the way the uh the bricks in the global south want to go. They they want to use uh different currencies but have a reserve asset of gold. So yeah and all these other countries what what do they have to do to buy and sell to the US maybe to sell but you know China is becoming such a such a huge market as growing so much uh even Africa so all these countries are going to say why do we need dollars uh we need to get some some more gold some more yuan or some other currencies uh so I think it's uh yeah the petro dollar I think is um yeah, it's on his way out. Um it's not going to go away completely right away, but I think uh it's pretty much like sterling was uh around the early 1950s. Most people think that the dollar took over sterling as the major reserve asset uh in 1944 with Breton Woods, but it wasn't. It was only in 1954 that uh it crossed over uh sterling reserves became less than dollar reserves. So yeah, I and I think you've seen recently I think uh Jesse that uh uh reserves uh held by foreign central banks and by foreign I mean not American central banks uh they've uh yeah the gold reserves have gone above uh treasury reserves. So it's a little bit like that 1954 moment for sterling and the dollar but sterling remained and still is uh the people still I think there's a 5% of foreign central bank stillards hold some sterling. I don't I don't know why but they do. So it doesn't mean to say that petro dollar will be gone completely, but I think it's um it's at a critical uh threshold in terms of losing its influence. I had Matthew Pipenberg on the show recently. He was warning that the mark the the market to be watching for an upcoming crisis wasn't necessarily the magnificent 7, the AI stocks, the big indices, but government bonds. We're seeing Japanese government bonds rise to levels not seen in decades. the 30-year Treasury threatening to break 5%, UK guilts rapidly on the rise, and a lot of government bonds uh yields increasing. Is this something you're watching as well? And if the bond market breaks, could that lead to a collapse in the stock market as well? >> It's definitely something I look because I worked in the bond markets for 20 years and uh you're right. Um, it's not just uh the US 30-year that's rising and the 10-year, but you look at the German government bond yields are up. Uh, the uh French, the Italian, the Japanese, I mean that even though they're still relatively low, they've come from very low levels. And um, government bonds are at the base of our current uh, monetary and financial system. And uh the lower their prices go because when prices of bonds drop, the yields go up. Um the lower they go, the less collateral there is uh for liquidity in the system. So yeah, potentially it could uh hurt uh the stock market. Some people think it's negative for for gold and silver, but I think if you look at the the 1970s, uh, bond yields, uh, up until 1980, they've they went from like four to 5% to like, uh, 15% and gold nevertheless went higher. So yeah, I I think uh it's pointing to the u fact that uh financialization is over really because we had like over 40 years of financialization which basically meant that by that the the tail was wagging the dog. finance was everything. But you can see that it isn't anymore because all these countries, China, US especially, and even Korea, when I was there, they have a critical minerals list. Uh they're all realizing we need commodities. We we've been too focused on just finance. Uh and we need real things. Uh or else we can't survive. We can't just uh eat uh coding or eat uh in the internet or Wi-Fi. We we need to eat real things and everything's powered by uh rare earth's uh natural resources. So, um I think that's what the bond market is telling us and uh it's a bare market. Uh yes, the central banks might step in and do massive QE. Uh but that would just uh really put a rocket up hard assets in my opinion. So do you think we're on the precipice of a rotation from these over financialized assets? I mean these companies in in the MAG 7 and and the ones that are holding up the broad indices are trading at such obscene valuations on so many different meth metrics. the Buffett indicator, the Schiller PE ratio. I mean, price to sales, price to book, it's it's kind of outrageous at this point and yet recently hitting new all-time highs. Um, when it really does eventually roll over, perhaps starting with cracks in the bond market, as you've discussed, do you think we're going to see a flight to hard assets? Do you think market participants are going to wake up to that fact, or do you think it could take some time before that rotation fully occurs if you believe it will happen? Well, no. I think it's already occurring to some extent, but very um not many people are really doing that rotation. I mean, you look at Ray Dalio, he's been trying to warn people. Uh you look at uh Warren Buffett and Burkshshire Hathaway, they've got now almost $400 billion in cash. I'm not sure they they're they want to put they're going to put anything into gold, silver, or hard assets, even though I think they should. Uh but that's not for me to decide. and and uh he spoke recently at the shareholders meeting and he's not uh he's retired but he was there and he said it's uh yeah he he said the markets are too you know there are good things in the market he said but uh there's just too much speculation he noted that uh why do you need to to trade uh daily options on on on everything it's like crazy so it's a sign that Um uh it's a casino but you know uh Allan Greenspan who's just turned 100 he once said markets can remain irrational you know irr irrational exuberance and well he called irrational exuberance and the markets uh stayed like that for another two to three years so you never know um I think it's a sign it's not a sign that the economy is doing well but it's a sign that uh the smart money, the smart investors, they don't want to hold paper. They want to hold real companies and maybe that's why the stock market is doing so well. But I could see uh if if there is a turn in the stock market uh and 5% of all the all these this phony wealth goes to real assets, it could make a huge difference. to the value of Rio assets. >> Absolutely. I want to touch on the war in Iran a little bit because it looks like it could be escalating into a new series of strikes by the US and further retal retaliatory strikes by Iran. I mean, the situation on social media is just completely crazy. Trump or someone from an administration will say, "We're having great talks with Iran." Iran will say, "What talks? We're not even talking to them." Trump will say, "We're going to bomb them into oblivion." I mean, it's such an insane, you know, it feels like a reality TV show at this point. Um, but obviously there's very real world implications. We've seen it on energy, WTI crude shooting to over $100. A lot of people already seeing that price at the gas pump and many analysts warning of of much bigger economic ripple effects to come. Uh, heightened inflation, heightened food costs, etc. How do you see this conflict impacting the the broader economy and financial markets, assuming it does continue to drag on? >> First, I'd say maybe it is a reality TV program. Trump has he's got the track record. But anyway, uh I I think as long uh the longer this uh thing drags on, the worse it's going to be. Uh so um it was supposed to be uh last a few days. They're supposed to change the regime in Iran just like uh the Americans and the Europeans were supposed to change the regime in Moscow. And here we are uh over four years later and that war is still being fought. So yeah, the longer it goes, the the worse it's going to be for the economy and the better it's going to be for commodities. Not that I want the war to drag on because I'm we're bullish commodities, but it's just the reality because wars waste things and you need things to fight wars. You need uh energy, you need uh raw materials and uh and it's not invested, it's wasted. Uh so usually after wars there's a period where you pay back for the war and that's when you get like the inflation uh the governments inflate away so that they can pay with cheaper cheaper currency. So yeah the longer it drags on Jesse the the worse it is. And I saw today as we speak that Iran they they they've put a deadline for the US and said if you don't do this in 30 days we're going to destroy you a little bit like Trump has been uh in you know uh doing and apparently it's the first deadline ever set to the from another country to the United States uh which is uh interesting. I think the deadline is for them to uh lift the uh blockade. >> Well, boy, it sure does feel like a reality TV show. Um, as you mentioned there as well. Now, Trump is also talking about taking Cuba um and the EU is starting to ratchet up their wararmongering rhetoric when it comes to Russia. They're talking about, you know, remilitarizing, they're increasing their defense budgets in Germany. Now, there's a new rule on the books that German males need to report to the the military office um before they leave the country for more than 3 months. Now, supposedly it's not in effect and right now it is automatically granted. They don't actually have to show up and ask this, but nonetheless, it has been put on the books, which leads people to believe at some point that they're going to enact it. And then the further next step could be a full-on military conscription. Not a lot of people know this, but I'm in Japan now, but I live in Serbia. And Croatia, which is right beside Serbia, actually began um mandatory military service once again uh in in their country starting in January. So, some other EU countries could follow suit here. What What is your thought on all of this, you know, wararmongering going on, this remilitarization? Is this the last ditch effort of the West to remain relevant in this newly emerging multi multipolar world? Is that what they fear that it's no longer going to be America the hgeimon but we're going to you know China is going to potentially have more power and the BRICS nations are also going to emerge as a force in this world. >> Yeah. I I think uh the US and Europe and I say the US because u the US was heavily involved in fermenting the uh war in the Ukraine. Uh both of those blocks thought that it would uh Putin would be defeated really easily and they would have a puppet in charge in Moscow and they could control all Russia's resources. But that's that's backfired uh like epically you could use the word. uh if Putin's still there as president. Boris Johnson and others are they're all Biden and uh what's his name? Uh Schultz um they're all gone, right? Uh so the regime change has been in the west and yeah I I think like I said it's a lastditch effort but I I can't see uh Western Europe and the and the UK rebuilding anything because we're almost broke and bankrupt. So my hope is that we go broke and bankrupt. you see a total implosion of uh the system uh so that we can't do anything stupid because I think it's really stupid to uh threaten Russia like they are. Uh and Russia has all the resources in the world has uh all the gold they want. They've only got 19% the government debt to GDP in Europe. Uh we're up here with that. So yeah, my hope is that uh things yeah things uh melt down before they can do any damage then new Fed chair Kevin Worse is set to take the helm on May 15th. You alluded earlier that central banks are looking to potentially cut rates. Do you expect him to cut interest rates as this is Trump's pick and Trump has repeatedly demanded interest rates cut interest rates cuts going so far as to launch a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell? I don't think that's gone anywhere, but but obviously a political pressure tactic employed there. Um do you what what what do you think Worsh is going to do? And if he does cut rates, could that be one of the big catalysts for precious metals prices to move higher? Yeah, I mean uh if he's taking over on the uh 15th as chairman uh and if we start seeing the month after that weak economic numbers, he might decide to uh do a a rate cut. I think their next meeting FOMC is uh June 16th. So yeah, it's possible. Um, but I I think that would be really bullish, like you said, for precious metals and commodities, and it would be really bearish for well, it would we'd continue to see the long-term uh yields for treasuries rising because uh back in uh I think it was September 2024, the Fed cut rates for the first time after they raised rates after COVID And the 10-year yield at the time was 3.6. The Fed funds was five and a half. And here we are uh like 18 is it 18 months or even more? Uh yeah, 18 months later or almost two years and uh the 10-year yield is at 441 and the Fed funds is at 375. So for th those people who think that or and to that I said to that I say Trump as well. If he thinks just because the Fed cuts uh the Fed funds rate that it's going to lower mortgage rates and longer term yields uh you know you think again and uh that will probably push the uh Fed also to do uh yield curve control or even increase the amount of QE they're doing now. So, yeah, it's possible, but I I don't think he's going to come in the first day and have an emergency meeting and say, "I'm going to cut rates." That would be a bit too obvious. He's he's going to he's going to play the part of like being tough on inflation, even though Jesse, we know it's central bankers who create all the inflation. >> Yes. And I wish more people would realize that. Mario, fantastic conversation as always. Tell us about the Manco64 YouTube channel and anywhere else people can follow your work online. >> Yeah, my channel 64 is the uh home of alternative economics and contrarian views and uh I've been posting uh on YouTube since uh yeah, November 2015. And uh yeah, that's where you can find all my uh posts. I also fairly active on on Twitter or X at Monaco 64. Great. I'll put links both to the YouTube channel and to your ex account in the description below. Thank you once again, Mario, for coming on. Always love talking to you. >> You're welcome. >> Thank you for joining us today. This episode is brought to you by Arc Silver, Gold, Osmium. They have some great prices on precious metals, bullion products. They are on your screen right now. Now, these are subject to change and well supplies last. So, reach out to owner Ian Everard today at 3072649441 or by email at ianarchsggo.com and make sure to tell him that commodity culture sent you and represent sound money in style with the stacks, not fiat t-shirt backed by a 100% quality guarantee. Use the link in the description below and I'll see you guys on the next episode. Commodity Culture is a series on commodities and natural resources. If you would like to see more, be sure to subscribe and hit the bell notification so you're always up tod date with the latest episodes.
Western Leaders Fumbling SILVER Setup – 'Profit Off Their Stupidity': Mario Innecco
Summary
Transcript
Hello everybody and welcome into commodity culture where we break down commodities markets, sound money principles and geopolitics. All with the goal of making you a better investor in the commodities sector. My name is Jesse Day. Today is May 4th, 2026 and I'm thrilled to welcome Mario Inco to the show. A veteran of the investment industry who worked for major financial institutions in London for over 20 years and currently the host of the Manco 64 YouTube channel. Mario believes Western leaders are falling way behind China when it comes to accumulating silver as a strategic and monetary asset and have their focus in all the wrong places as they struggle to hold on to their fading hegemony in an increasingly multipolar world. The good news, as Mario puts it, is we can profit from their stupidity before the paper market collapses and supply demand fundamentals kick in, sending silver prices soaring. Mario also explains why he thinks the petro dollar is as good as dead, why the next stop for gold is $6,000 an ounce, and so much more. So, strap yourselves in for my conversation with Mario and Neko. Mario and Ekko, it is great to have you back on Commodity Culture. I want to start by discussing China's record imports of silver in March and what this combined with their restriction of silver exports starting this year means for their long-term silver strategy. I just had Eric Young on the show and he thinks a big part of it is allowing China to diversify its energy away from hydrocarbons and more towards EVs and towards solar and thus reduce their dependency when it comes to an energy standpoint. Wondering what your thoughts are on on why you think China is placing such a big importance on silver in recent times. >> Well, they they like the US have placed silver on the list of critical minerals. So, uh, yeah, and since the beginning of the year, they've put a limit on on exports. And I agree with Eric. I I had him on recently as well. Um, silver is very important for not just for uh alternative uh energy like uh solar, but also people are finding out you need a lot of silver for AI, for all the high tech, for uh batteries. Uh there is a I think uh uh is it a Samsung uh there is a B or in Japan there's a battery free a state free state battery or something solid state battery uh you know I'm not a very technical person I'm more of a macro but yeah where you use a lot of silver and uh batteries for electric cars like they can run a lot longer and the charging is a lot faster. So yeah, it's a a matter of uh uh technology uh use and also energy, but I also think it's for um it's part of the monetary uh equation as well. I I've been hearing for the last six, nine months that sovereign wealth funds and central banks in the Middle East, they've been buyers uh not just of physical silver, but they've been uh buying uh shares of silver mines. Yeah, there's a real rush for silver. Uh, I guess the only people that want to get rid of silver and keep the price down are people in New York and London who trade it as a speculation, but all they're doing is giving it away to our supposed uh opponents or enemies. Not that I'm saying the these people are our enemies, but that's how uh we're supposed to uh look at them. >> Yeah, some great thoughts there. I believe it's Samsung in South Korea that is developing those silver batteries. Now, you recently posted a video on your YouTube channel titled China and bricks to follow in India's footsteps to remonetize silver. Walk us through first how India is remonetizing silver and why you think China and bricks nations will be following their lead. >> Yeah, I think I just mentioned a few minutes ago that more and more countries are buying silver as a monetary asset. uh don't know you probably heard uh last year uh India announced that from the 1st of April this year uh you could you can use silver as collateral for for loans. So I think that's what it's about and uh I I think China is going to do the same. uh just think of it as uh more liquidity to uh the uh yeah the world trading system if you just have gold as a reserve it yeah there's less and but if you add silver there's more to it so I think uh the these countries they have a tradition of uh looking at gold and silver as money so I'm not surprised that that that u tradition is awakening a reawakening especially because uh the dollar which is really a uh well ever since 1971 is nothing but like a paper promise that can't be paid back uh you know it's like uh you can't extinguish a a debt uh that is a debt a money that is a debt so I think these people are starting to wake up and uh I I think China now u is more determined than ever seeing that the US has put some uh sanctions on um on some big important refineries in China and indirectly as well uh sanctions on um ship builders in China but uh China China's government announced to these uh because these are not stateowned I don't think that were sanctioned they announced to to these companies yeah ignore the US sanctions because we're sovereign and independent and we deal with with whom we want. So yeah, I think silver is a big part of that. I mean, it's it's just so comical to see a nation that unprovoked started a war in Iran and then is now trying to sanction China because they bought Iranian oil. So that's bad. I mean, the whole thing is just so incredibly backwards. I I wonder what your thoughts are though on uh the silver situation in the United States because obviously also declared a critical mineral. Do you think they could be waking up to this monetary value in silver as well? Do you think they're looking at it as strictly an industrial commodity? And do you think that they're paying attention to what China is doing with its ramping up of silver imports and and export restrictions? And and if so, how do you think they could counter it? That was like 10 questions in one. I'm sorry. I I do I do that sometimes, but I'd love to get your overall thoughts there. >> In terms of uh how the US perceives uh silver, I I think the general public, a lot of them perceive it as money. You know, the silver stackers, the u the uh let's say the administration not so much. I think they look at it more as a critical industrial mineral. And I think uh yeah, they're like uh they're spreading their wings, so to speak, down south in their backyard in uh Central and Latin America for more silver properties because and maybe also uh north of the border in Canada, even though I don't think Canada has that much silver. So, um yeah, I I I think uh it's uh all part of this drive uh for securing critical uh minerals and rare earths and Donald Trump, President Trump signed loads of executive orders right off the bat when he took over last year and uh it's only going to continue. And it's not just the US that's like uh you you said it's comical that they start aprovoked war and then they sanction uh China, right? But I heard the EU as well is sanctioning China for selling stuff that could be used uh for making arms uh to to Russia because of the war in Ukraine. And now I I think China's threatening to put curbs on on their exports of rare earths to Europe as well. So it looks like it's a western disease. Um yeah, the our leaders and politicians as usual uh are clueless. Uh but that always creates opportunities uh for you know if you're on the lookout for those things profit from their stupidity I guess. And uh that's why I I think there's a a rush for these uh critical minerals because uh China who's been um yeah really grown into becoming a huge uh producer of not just rare earths but all other things. Uh they're closing the door and uh I don't know if you remember uh what was his name? Posar um from credit Swiss Zultan Posar in 2022 he he warned that we're going into like a commodity a period of commodity wars because the world is delobalizing so yeah I think it's only going to continue and I I I think we are on the right side of things here especially with your channel commod commodity culture right uh and uh my focus as well on precious metals and uh commodities as well in general. >> The sponsor of today's episode is Arc Silver Gold Osmium. Owner Ian Everard is praised even by his competitors as one of the most honest and level-headed bullion dealers in the United States. They have some great prices. You can see some of them displayed right now on screen. Take advantage of these specials today by reaching out to Ian at 3072649441 or by email at IanarchsGgo.com. Make sure to tell them, of course, that Commodity Culture sent you. And now back to the interview. Well, you also recently discussed how gold's pullback could be the last buying opportunity before we go to $6,000 an ounce. What What are the signs you're seeing that gold could be headed back up? because obviously we saw all-time highs in January this year. We've seen the metal drop and kind of consolidate sideways for some time now. What What do you see as that next catalyst that could bring us to 6,000? >> Well, I think just the the sent the sentiment is really bearish and whenever that happens uh things uh yeah go the other way. Um and uh the consolidation is like uh discouraging a lot of people. Uh and that's a good thing because we we got a little bit uh too uh much yeah too exuberant maybe in in January towards the end of January. And uh also u I saw recently that Turkey they're buying back some of the gold that they sold. um um because of the war. Uh and uh they actually said that um the reason they're buying it back is because it's very good insurance and they were able to use it during the war to support their currency and uh yeah and I I think um China is going to continue to to to buy and uh yeah as I said the the east is awake to uh the value of precious metals uh but not the uh the best. Um, yeah, I just think, uh, yeah, we've been consolidating for almost 3 months now. It might take another month, just like last year. I think if it was from April, uh, to August, we had a a consolidation between, I think, 3,000 and 4,200. And eventually it broke out and, uh, we we really uh went on a rampage. So I think it's the same kind of scenario like a up and then consolidation up and this has been happening for the last uh 18 uh months to 24 months. Several big financial institutions are echoing your call for $6,000 gold and even higher. We've got JP Morgan forecasting 6,300, Wells Fargo 6,100 to 6,300. UBS 6200 with the potential for 7,200 if geopolitical chaos continues. Bank of America 6,000. I mean, with Wall Street being this bullish, could $6,000 be too low of a price target? And do you expect more institutional money to pour into the gold market as a result of these big calls from Wall Street? >> Yeah, Wall Street is always very conservative on their calls for uh higher gold price. So yeah, it is possible they're being too conservative on on these calls. And um I mean my uh call for 6,000 is just like is not like the top that I see. It's just like a uh intermediate top maybe uh in a few months or so, but I see a lot higher. And yeah, they they've always had to revise go going back a few years. And I think they've learned their lesson and that's why they they're calling it a little higher now. But they might even not be uh high enough you know these calls. Uh as for institutional uh buyers I think they we are seeing already I think you know um the smart money is going into gold. It's more the U retail investor who's still focused on on the NASDAQ, on the S&P. We just made new highs on on those. I'm not saying that I'm bullish the stock market because I think in terms of gold, the stock market isn't really doing that well, even though it's rebounding right now. But, uh, there's very little interest still in hard assets, commodities, precious metals, miners. So I I I still think we have a long way to go and I don't see the fundamentals changing to make me uh like change my views. I don't see central banks uh acting hawkishly like raising rates or stopping QE. Uh if anything, they're yeah, they're really uh waiting for the chance to cut rates. uh but it it seems to be dependent right now on on this uh conflict in the Middle East which hasn't been resolved. What what is your current view of the health of the pro dollar as Iran and China trade oil for renmanb? Indian refiners now purchasing large volumes of Russian crude using both yuan and the UEA dirham and Gulf states are reportedly discussing yuan for oil and gas deals up ahead. As I mentioned, I just spoke to Eric Young. He's also saying that he thinks that gold for oil is going to be a trade that is going to ramp up moving forward as well. Is the petro dollar under threat at this point? Well, I I think uh the petro dollar is almost as good as dead right now because uh China China's economy is like they produce real things, they import real things, they u they like uh they take raw materials and they they produce finished goods and sell it. And I mean they they do everything really well and they trade with so many countries that if China the dollar rises and uh uses more gold and maybe even silver and uh other currencies I think that's the way the uh the bricks in the global south want to go. They they want to use uh different currencies but have a reserve asset of gold. So yeah and all these other countries what what do they have to do to buy and sell to the US maybe to sell but you know China is becoming such a such a huge market as growing so much uh even Africa so all these countries are going to say why do we need dollars uh we need to get some some more gold some more yuan or some other currencies uh so I think it's uh yeah the petro dollar I think is um yeah, it's on his way out. Um it's not going to go away completely right away, but I think uh it's pretty much like sterling was uh around the early 1950s. Most people think that the dollar took over sterling as the major reserve asset uh in 1944 with Breton Woods, but it wasn't. It was only in 1954 that uh it crossed over uh sterling reserves became less than dollar reserves. So yeah, I and I think you've seen recently I think uh Jesse that uh uh reserves uh held by foreign central banks and by foreign I mean not American central banks uh they've uh yeah the gold reserves have gone above uh treasury reserves. So it's a little bit like that 1954 moment for sterling and the dollar but sterling remained and still is uh the people still I think there's a 5% of foreign central bank stillards hold some sterling. I don't I don't know why but they do. So it doesn't mean to say that petro dollar will be gone completely, but I think it's um it's at a critical uh threshold in terms of losing its influence. I had Matthew Pipenberg on the show recently. He was warning that the mark the the market to be watching for an upcoming crisis wasn't necessarily the magnificent 7, the AI stocks, the big indices, but government bonds. We're seeing Japanese government bonds rise to levels not seen in decades. the 30-year Treasury threatening to break 5%, UK guilts rapidly on the rise, and a lot of government bonds uh yields increasing. Is this something you're watching as well? And if the bond market breaks, could that lead to a collapse in the stock market as well? >> It's definitely something I look because I worked in the bond markets for 20 years and uh you're right. Um, it's not just uh the US 30-year that's rising and the 10-year, but you look at the German government bond yields are up. Uh, the uh French, the Italian, the Japanese, I mean that even though they're still relatively low, they've come from very low levels. And um, government bonds are at the base of our current uh, monetary and financial system. And uh the lower their prices go because when prices of bonds drop, the yields go up. Um the lower they go, the less collateral there is uh for liquidity in the system. So yeah, potentially it could uh hurt uh the stock market. Some people think it's negative for for gold and silver, but I think if you look at the the 1970s, uh, bond yields, uh, up until 1980, they've they went from like four to 5% to like, uh, 15% and gold nevertheless went higher. So yeah, I I think uh it's pointing to the u fact that uh financialization is over really because we had like over 40 years of financialization which basically meant that by that the the tail was wagging the dog. finance was everything. But you can see that it isn't anymore because all these countries, China, US especially, and even Korea, when I was there, they have a critical minerals list. Uh they're all realizing we need commodities. We we've been too focused on just finance. Uh and we need real things. Uh or else we can't survive. We can't just uh eat uh coding or eat uh in the internet or Wi-Fi. We we need to eat real things and everything's powered by uh rare earth's uh natural resources. So, um I think that's what the bond market is telling us and uh it's a bare market. Uh yes, the central banks might step in and do massive QE. Uh but that would just uh really put a rocket up hard assets in my opinion. So do you think we're on the precipice of a rotation from these over financialized assets? I mean these companies in in the MAG 7 and and the ones that are holding up the broad indices are trading at such obscene valuations on so many different meth metrics. the Buffett indicator, the Schiller PE ratio. I mean, price to sales, price to book, it's it's kind of outrageous at this point and yet recently hitting new all-time highs. Um, when it really does eventually roll over, perhaps starting with cracks in the bond market, as you've discussed, do you think we're going to see a flight to hard assets? Do you think market participants are going to wake up to that fact, or do you think it could take some time before that rotation fully occurs if you believe it will happen? Well, no. I think it's already occurring to some extent, but very um not many people are really doing that rotation. I mean, you look at Ray Dalio, he's been trying to warn people. Uh you look at uh Warren Buffett and Burkshshire Hathaway, they've got now almost $400 billion in cash. I'm not sure they they're they want to put they're going to put anything into gold, silver, or hard assets, even though I think they should. Uh but that's not for me to decide. and and uh he spoke recently at the shareholders meeting and he's not uh he's retired but he was there and he said it's uh yeah he he said the markets are too you know there are good things in the market he said but uh there's just too much speculation he noted that uh why do you need to to trade uh daily options on on on everything it's like crazy so it's a sign that Um uh it's a casino but you know uh Allan Greenspan who's just turned 100 he once said markets can remain irrational you know irr irrational exuberance and well he called irrational exuberance and the markets uh stayed like that for another two to three years so you never know um I think it's a sign it's not a sign that the economy is doing well but it's a sign that uh the smart money, the smart investors, they don't want to hold paper. They want to hold real companies and maybe that's why the stock market is doing so well. But I could see uh if if there is a turn in the stock market uh and 5% of all the all these this phony wealth goes to real assets, it could make a huge difference. to the value of Rio assets. >> Absolutely. I want to touch on the war in Iran a little bit because it looks like it could be escalating into a new series of strikes by the US and further retal retaliatory strikes by Iran. I mean, the situation on social media is just completely crazy. Trump or someone from an administration will say, "We're having great talks with Iran." Iran will say, "What talks? We're not even talking to them." Trump will say, "We're going to bomb them into oblivion." I mean, it's such an insane, you know, it feels like a reality TV show at this point. Um, but obviously there's very real world implications. We've seen it on energy, WTI crude shooting to over $100. A lot of people already seeing that price at the gas pump and many analysts warning of of much bigger economic ripple effects to come. Uh, heightened inflation, heightened food costs, etc. How do you see this conflict impacting the the broader economy and financial markets, assuming it does continue to drag on? >> First, I'd say maybe it is a reality TV program. Trump has he's got the track record. But anyway, uh I I think as long uh the longer this uh thing drags on, the worse it's going to be. Uh so um it was supposed to be uh last a few days. They're supposed to change the regime in Iran just like uh the Americans and the Europeans were supposed to change the regime in Moscow. And here we are uh over four years later and that war is still being fought. So yeah, the longer it goes, the the worse it's going to be for the economy and the better it's going to be for commodities. Not that I want the war to drag on because I'm we're bullish commodities, but it's just the reality because wars waste things and you need things to fight wars. You need uh energy, you need uh raw materials and uh and it's not invested, it's wasted. Uh so usually after wars there's a period where you pay back for the war and that's when you get like the inflation uh the governments inflate away so that they can pay with cheaper cheaper currency. So yeah the longer it drags on Jesse the the worse it is. And I saw today as we speak that Iran they they they've put a deadline for the US and said if you don't do this in 30 days we're going to destroy you a little bit like Trump has been uh in you know uh doing and apparently it's the first deadline ever set to the from another country to the United States uh which is uh interesting. I think the deadline is for them to uh lift the uh blockade. >> Well, boy, it sure does feel like a reality TV show. Um, as you mentioned there as well. Now, Trump is also talking about taking Cuba um and the EU is starting to ratchet up their wararmongering rhetoric when it comes to Russia. They're talking about, you know, remilitarizing, they're increasing their defense budgets in Germany. Now, there's a new rule on the books that German males need to report to the the military office um before they leave the country for more than 3 months. Now, supposedly it's not in effect and right now it is automatically granted. They don't actually have to show up and ask this, but nonetheless, it has been put on the books, which leads people to believe at some point that they're going to enact it. And then the further next step could be a full-on military conscription. Not a lot of people know this, but I'm in Japan now, but I live in Serbia. And Croatia, which is right beside Serbia, actually began um mandatory military service once again uh in in their country starting in January. So, some other EU countries could follow suit here. What What is your thought on all of this, you know, wararmongering going on, this remilitarization? Is this the last ditch effort of the West to remain relevant in this newly emerging multi multipolar world? Is that what they fear that it's no longer going to be America the hgeimon but we're going to you know China is going to potentially have more power and the BRICS nations are also going to emerge as a force in this world. >> Yeah. I I think uh the US and Europe and I say the US because u the US was heavily involved in fermenting the uh war in the Ukraine. Uh both of those blocks thought that it would uh Putin would be defeated really easily and they would have a puppet in charge in Moscow and they could control all Russia's resources. But that's that's backfired uh like epically you could use the word. uh if Putin's still there as president. Boris Johnson and others are they're all Biden and uh what's his name? Uh Schultz um they're all gone, right? Uh so the regime change has been in the west and yeah I I think like I said it's a lastditch effort but I I can't see uh Western Europe and the and the UK rebuilding anything because we're almost broke and bankrupt. So my hope is that we go broke and bankrupt. you see a total implosion of uh the system uh so that we can't do anything stupid because I think it's really stupid to uh threaten Russia like they are. Uh and Russia has all the resources in the world has uh all the gold they want. They've only got 19% the government debt to GDP in Europe. Uh we're up here with that. So yeah, my hope is that uh things yeah things uh melt down before they can do any damage then new Fed chair Kevin Worse is set to take the helm on May 15th. You alluded earlier that central banks are looking to potentially cut rates. Do you expect him to cut interest rates as this is Trump's pick and Trump has repeatedly demanded interest rates cut interest rates cuts going so far as to launch a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell? I don't think that's gone anywhere, but but obviously a political pressure tactic employed there. Um do you what what what do you think Worsh is going to do? And if he does cut rates, could that be one of the big catalysts for precious metals prices to move higher? Yeah, I mean uh if he's taking over on the uh 15th as chairman uh and if we start seeing the month after that weak economic numbers, he might decide to uh do a a rate cut. I think their next meeting FOMC is uh June 16th. So yeah, it's possible. Um, but I I think that would be really bullish, like you said, for precious metals and commodities, and it would be really bearish for well, it would we'd continue to see the long-term uh yields for treasuries rising because uh back in uh I think it was September 2024, the Fed cut rates for the first time after they raised rates after COVID And the 10-year yield at the time was 3.6. The Fed funds was five and a half. And here we are uh like 18 is it 18 months or even more? Uh yeah, 18 months later or almost two years and uh the 10-year yield is at 441 and the Fed funds is at 375. So for th those people who think that or and to that I said to that I say Trump as well. If he thinks just because the Fed cuts uh the Fed funds rate that it's going to lower mortgage rates and longer term yields uh you know you think again and uh that will probably push the uh Fed also to do uh yield curve control or even increase the amount of QE they're doing now. So, yeah, it's possible, but I I don't think he's going to come in the first day and have an emergency meeting and say, "I'm going to cut rates." That would be a bit too obvious. He's he's going to he's going to play the part of like being tough on inflation, even though Jesse, we know it's central bankers who create all the inflation. >> Yes. And I wish more people would realize that. Mario, fantastic conversation as always. Tell us about the Manco64 YouTube channel and anywhere else people can follow your work online. >> Yeah, my channel 64 is the uh home of alternative economics and contrarian views and uh I've been posting uh on YouTube since uh yeah, November 2015. And uh yeah, that's where you can find all my uh posts. I also fairly active on on Twitter or X at Monaco 64. Great. I'll put links both to the YouTube channel and to your ex account in the description below. Thank you once again, Mario, for coming on. Always love talking to you. >> You're welcome. >> Thank you for joining us today. This episode is brought to you by Arc Silver, Gold, Osmium. They have some great prices on precious metals, bullion products. They are on your screen right now. Now, these are subject to change and well supplies last. So, reach out to owner Ian Everard today at 3072649441 or by email at ianarchsggo.com and make sure to tell him that commodity culture sent you and represent sound money in style with the stacks, not fiat t-shirt backed by a 100% quality guarantee. Use the link in the description below and I'll see you guys on the next episode. Commodity Culture is a series on commodities and natural resources. If you would like to see more, be sure to subscribe and hit the bell notification so you're always up tod date with the latest episodes.