Why Soloway Is Selling Stocks for ‘This Huge Gold Buying Opportunity’
Summary
Market Outlook: Technicals signal potential exhaustion in major indices with narrow leadership and bubble-like sentiment, setting up for a possible correction before year-end.
AI/Mega Cap Tech: Heavy focus on AI-driven leaders like NVDA, AAPL, and AMZN, with concerns over extended valuations and milestone-driven tops.
Gold & Silver: Bullish long-term on Gold with a 1979 analog; prefers buying a pullback into 3500–3600, while Silver accumulation around 43 is targeted with higher volatility risk.
Crypto/Bitcoin: Bitcoin shows divergence versus equities and faces key trendline resistance; a pullback toward ~93k is the preferred re-entry unless it breaks above 127k.
Value Rotation: Favors Value Stocks and high dividends as money rotates from AI leaders; highlights PFE (7% yield) at multi-year support with upside to ~27.50.
Energy & Materials: Near-term bounce possible in Oil (inverse H&S) but macro bearish alongside a Copper bear flag, signaling economic caution; CCJ (uranium) seen as attractive on pullbacks after a sharp run.
Single-Name Calls: PLTR viewed as overextended with a near-term target back to ~175 (deeper risk to 150–125), AMZN near major resistance with limited upside, and AAPL also approaching a key channel cap warranting caution.
Transcript
Welcome back. I'm Jeremy Saffron. Wall Street's record run is showing its first signs of fatigue. The S&P 500 is hovering near 68.25, [music] just off all-time highs after a $17 trillion surge in global equities since April. Now, tech continues to dominate. Amazon up double digits on cloud growth. Apple steady and Nvidia now the first company in history to top a $5 trillion market cap. But that narrow leadership is raising new alarms. Michael Bur, the investor from the big short, just warned in a tweet that sometimes we see bubbles. He was posting that on X cryptically as mega cap valuations stretch to these extremes. Now, the S&P 500 now trades around 23 times forward earnings. Tech mega caps over 31 times. And yet, Wall Street isn't backing off. That Bank of America reports showed $17 billion in new equity inflows this week with strategists saying AI leadership isn't budging. And meanwhile, gold is under pressure down nearly 1% just under $4,000 an ounce on the spot side as the dollar strengthens and traders question how much longer this rally can last. So that's the crossroads here. Optimism and tech anxiety and metals in a market wondering what breaks first. And that's exactly why Gareth Soloway is here, chief market strategist at verifiedinvesting.com to show us what the charts are saying right now. You've been so accurate this year. Great to have you back. Let's dig in here. Good to see you, Gareth. >> Good to see you, too, Jeremy. Thanks for having me. >> Listen, man, we are talking about it a little bit there. It's been an interesting year. I mean, this this whole week has been an interesting news flow. But that S&P having that historic seven-month streak nearly 40% off the April lows. And and then we get the NASDAQ Hunter just logged its longest winning run in in eight years. On your S&P chart, are we nearing exhaustion? I mean, does this technical setup still allow another meltup into the year end? What are your thoughts? >> Yeah. So, what we have here is the S&P daily chart. And, you know, again, I look at charts. I'm a probability trader. And one of the things that we're starting to see is the exhaustion sign. And one of the most remarkable charts here and factors is if we flip to the weekly chart, and I'm a trend line junkie, so I'm I use trend lines and parallels and they help guide me, right? And so what we're going to do here is we're going to take the low from 2020, which was the COVID low, and we take a trend line and drag it through the bare market low of 2022 all the way up through the liberation sell-off lows. And look at how all of those lines connect perfectly. Those low pivots are all right there. And then what we do is we drag a parallel. What would be the most logical place to go? Go to your bull market high of 2021 right here. And look at where we just hit. And so as a technician, I look at this and I say, "All right, so we know that when we are down at the lows, these are great buying opportunities, right? Even this one in here in 2023. But then if we're at the highs like in 2021, this tends to be a sell signal. And so for me, I say, "Holy cow, we possibly just put in a major top on the market with the potential to see a draw down possibly as as low as around 5400 on the S&P." And I know that's shocking to most people. Everyone's in the vibe right now that oh, the markets can never go down. But I would just like to point out that when you hit key milestones, for instance, Nvidia hit five trillion. You mentioned it. Um, Apple hit four trillion this week. These are key milestones that often times mark tops historically. People need to be aware. >> Yeah. Yeah. Be aware. And, you know, at the same time, of course, we see these earnings, they've been strong, right? I mean, more than 60% of the S&P companies have beaten these expectations. If the fundamentals are this solid, we got to ask, I mean, are bears fighting the tape here? How do how do we reconcile that caution? I mean, we see those lines. So, it's actually probably time for a little bit of a a haircut. >> Yeah, I think I think a little bit of a haircut at minimum. We haven't had a bigger than 3% draw down basically since the liberation selloff in April. Um, but I also think there's some other concerning factors here. We talk about how, you know, how can it be a bubble? These companies are profitable. And the answer is yes, they are. That's true. But in all fairness, Cisco back in 2000 was also profitable. It was Pets.com. these little mini.com companies that weren't and there's a ton of those out there right now in this environment. And one interesting stat and I heard this and I said, "Holy cow, that's incredible." In in 2000, Cisco's market cap was equal to 3.9% of the US GDP. So again, 3.9%. Nvidia's market cap alone is equal to 16% of the GDP in the US. Now, is that normal or is that a bubble? I tend to look at the bubble side of things when things get that over inflated. >> Yeah. Yeah. I want to continue to talk about that AI trade because we've been talking about it almost all year. It's not stopping, but we can't ignore seasonality. I mean, we know November, December historically the strongest two months for equities. Could that override the resistance picture at least temporarily? Yeah. So, it certainly could. And I do think, you know, I think if we're going to get a correction into year end, it needs to be in November because once you get into December, that seasonality and these fund managers that find out that, oh my goodness, I'm lagging the returns in the NASDAQ and the S&P, they have to just start buying. Even if they don't want to buy, they have to play catch-up and they're going to buy in. So, for me at least, November is kind of this zone of where if we're going to get some sort of pullback, we get it. And then I think you probably get a bounce into the end of the year before next year seeing a larger correction. >> Okay. I mean, Nvidia is now worth more than the GDP of Japan. I mean, we got Amazon, Meta, the CloudFare. They're they're all reporting major AI related growth. But then we got this Michael Bur saying it's a bubble. I mean, again, you just talked about the '9s.com period, those pet.com days. What's similar? Just break it down a little bit more. What's similar? What's fundamentally different this time around? Yeah. So, so the similarities, right, you have a lot of the same psychology and psychology drives the market, right? People think, you know, when you look at a chart, it's arbitrary. Whether it goes up or down, it doesn't make any sense. But in reality, as we saw with the S&P, every drop, as scary as it was, it aligned perfectly with a trend line going back to the COVID lows. So, there is order within this chaos. And that same psychology of greed, the markets will never go down. Oh, the Fed will always save us. the government will always print more money and spend more money. That's the same sort of mentality that in many ways we saw in the dotcom bubble about feeling like the markets would never go down. And those are huge concerns. I mean, you have again not just the invidas of the world, which they make a ton of money, but then it's the trickle down effect. And when when you look at things like like this stat here, 75% of the upside in the S&P in the last two years is only due to the AI stocks. So, what's happening to the rest of the market? And then other stats like this, right, where you have people that are making under 200,000 are struggling. And we heard from uh CMG this week. In fact, if you guys could take a look, we can take a look at the chart on CMG here. Look at the drop on Chipotle. And Chipotle clearly came out and said, "Guys, the generation Z uh Y, the generation, you know, all these millennials, they are not able to afford even going out to Chipotle anymore and buying buying burritos essentially like they were." And you know, people that are making more than 200k, these are the people that have lots of investments. The stock market's been going up. So, they're feeling fine. But a huge majority, like 70% of the US population, maybe even 80% is struggling like they're in a recession. And I really do think we have this K-shaped recovery, if you will, or K-shaped economy where you have the people that have investments, the stock market's been going up massively. They're doing great, but everyone else is really struggling. And it's just a matter of time before the stock market stalls, and then those people at the top stop spending, and that's when we see that recession hit. >> Yeah. Yeah. You bring up that Chipotle. I was watching that coverage too. I mean, it's interesting. Could Could it be that that that if the broader market keeps rallying as we're seeing with AI and tech flows that this kind of, you know, value play will outperform despite the current headwinds here? >> I do think value plays are the key, right? And again, you know, we've seen such a condensation, so much focus on the AI names where they've been sucking in this money over and over again. So if someone puts a dollar in the market, we're seeing a massive amount of that money go into the Magnificent 7, the AI play like Nvidia. But I do think there's an opportunity here where you see stocks that are kind of the have nots that have been underperforming. The Fisers of the world, the Nova Nordis, the stuff like that's trading at multi-year lows that pays a dividend. Those are the ones where I actually look at it and say, "Okay, these could be the next play." Just to show a chart here, guys, take a look at this one. This is Fizer. Now fizer has underperformed for a long period of time. I mean you go back it's even trading below the co lows currently right I mean here's the co low when everyone thought the end was near and then obviously fizer had that incredible run because they came up with the vaccine or one of the vaccines but look at where it's trading this pays a 7% dividend now with interest rates going down. I'm thinking to myself okay money flow remember hedge funds don't like to pull money out of the market because they don't make any money if the money's not in the market. they get 20% of profits. So, they need to have that exposure. So, they're not going to probably pull money out of the market until all else p panic hits. But what they're going to do is look for these forsaken plays that pay high dividends to stash money. And look at this beautiful trend line right here. You have it. You have Fizer right at the low end here. I would look for this to go up to like 2750 and even break out above that all along collecting a 7% annual dividend. At least that's where I'm positioning my own capital at this time. >> Yeah. Interesting. Uh you and I chatted just briefly about gold. I mean, I just want to go there for a minute. We'll come back to AI because obviously you saw that. Speaking of haircuts, I mean, you saw that little dip, right? It went down nearly 1% just today, about 39.83 at the time that we taped this, but it peaked at 4,300 earlier this month, and you called the pullback almost to the day. I mean, what's the chart telling you right now? Are we still looking for that, you know, 3500, 3600 accumulation zone? Are we kind of solid here at 4,000? >> Yeah. So, I am still looking for a bigger pullback. It's been a nice pullback thus far, but I'll show this chart here. This is an absolutely remarkable chart how the similarities with 1979 and the price action. So this is the chart here in 2025 and you can see here's in 1979 and this had this beautiful move up and over here in 2025 we had this nice move up. In 79 we had this sideways consolidation. We had the sideways consolidation in 2025 and then after that we had nine straight up weeks in a row in 1979 which led look at this to a big top in gold and a pullback. And what's interesting here is when we pulled back, where did we go? We went back to this general zone right here, which was the previous major high before that consolidation. Well, look over here in 2025, nine straight up weeks. So, exactly the amount of weeks that we saw in 1979, and we've now started to correct. And really, what I'm saying here is that while I think that this time is slightly different, and I'll go over that in a second, where would we expect the pullback to take us? basically back to that former high pivot right here. Just like in 1979, we pulled back there. This is where I start loading the boat on gold. Now, quickly, let's talk about why this is different because I do think it's important to say that, hey, listen, things aren't the same as 1979. For instance, in 1979, Vulkar was raising interest rates. We had like 15, 16, 17, 18% interest rates in the US. Here, we're seeing Jerome Powell lower interest rates. Back then GDP to debt to GDP was 32%. We're now at 130%. The government back in 7980 they were more apt to be negotiating and actually maybe not not spend so crazy. In 2025, you know, yes, we're in a government shutdown which I think ends soon and then the spending will start up again. So while 79 into 80 marked a multi-deade top in gold, I think this pullback is a [snorts] huge buying opportunity for gold where if we get that 35 $3,600 level, I do think we see uh $5,000 in 2026 as a price target. >> Wow. Okay. So you're so that you know if gold is already paralleling that 1979 and we accept that risk exists, but also huge upside remains. I mean, I guess we'll see that dip. Worst case, we got that pull back and then best case is a dramatic surge. >> Yeah, I think that's that's really what I'm thinking is that I don't see any, you know, we heard about Doge early in the year about Elon Musk kind of stopping all this spending that petered out so fast it's it's honestly a little laughable. And so, the government is going to go back to what it does best, which is, you know, apparently during expansionary periods spend a ton of money. Now, what happens when the economy slows and they're actually supposed to stimulate, then they'll probably spend even more. So, you have this fiat currency issue with ddollarization, all these aspects coming in where other countries are now starting to question the validity of the US financial system because of the debt, because of the inability of of Congress to get spending under control. And that inevitably is going to make this pullback much shorter in duration than what we saw in the 70s, 80s, and even into the '9s before new all-time highs are hit. >> Okay. So, I mean, if you're right, and that correction comes to 3536, that might look like weakness, but for long-term holders, I guess it's a setup, right? I mean, they're buying the dip. So, you're preparing kind of you're you're saying this pullback's the opportunity, not just a poke in the eye. >> Yes. Yes. And and the thing is because a lot of investors piled on at the end of the run, it's going to be painful for a lot of people and a lot of people may throw in the towel. I call them the weak hands, the people that bought at 4,000 or 45, you know, 4,300 where it was like, oh, gold can never go down, right? And we're now seeing that in the stock market, right? That same mentality just before probably a flush. And so often times at the end of moves, people the euphoria sets in, the FOMO sets in, people jump in just thinking, oh, it's the easiest trade in the world, just go long gold. The market has this weird way of flushing those people out of getting rid of the weak hands and then the strong survive, right? The strong still hang in there. The strong have been accumulating for years and then price starts to move back up and hit new all-time highs. >> What about silver? I mean, you look at that, Gareth. I mean, it's lagged even more sharply. It's down double digits from its highs. But, I mean, are these corrections kind of healthy resets? Are they early warnings that investors are losing faith in the inflation trade kind of thing? Yeah, I I think more than anything when you have vertical moves in silver, gold, or really anything, it just sets up for a natural correction, right? This is going back to the psychology that we've kind of talked about in markets. And it doesn't matter if it's crypto, if it's stocks, if it's commodities. Human nature is human nature. We get greedy and then we get fearful and then we get greedy again. And it swings like a pendulum back and forth. And what what's so cool about this chart on silver is we can look at this. Here's a parallel. So these lines are exactly parallel. the low in 2008, the fin financial crisis here. That was that low. We connect that low to the low in COVID, the lowest point. And then we simply just take a trend line, a parallel, and drag it up to the high of 2011 and look at where silver stopped going up to a T right at that level. And so this to me as a chart signal allowed me to say, okay, the likelihood is we're going to get a pullback in silver. Now, the bigger question is how much of a pullback, right? And to do that, we need to go into a shorter term time frame. So, I'm flipping over from the monthly chart to the the daily chart. And what I'm really looking for is you can see this trend line right here, how it connects beautifully through right through this area. And so, I'm looking for a pullback to about $43. And then I'm going to start to accumulate silver. Now, keep in mind, I'm not going all in at 43 cuz I always worry that there could be additional downside, but at least that's a point where I can start saying, "Okay, I feel comfortable about getting in silver." And then silver longer term, I have the general same view that if the if the US and the world continues to just print our way out of of disasters of financial kind of mismanagement, then inevitably silver longer term goes up. The only thing with silver be a little bit more careful because it's more apt to be adjustable to economic factors. We know it's an industrial metal as well. And I do just caution people that the volatility could be much bigger in terms of swings than gold. >> Yeah. Okay. So 43 bucks. I mean could could it be like gold a little bit? Could we see that big swing like you know the 45? >> I do think so. I do think so. And I think again the metals overall have been in slumber for so long that when when we get this move to the upside, I believe it's closer to the beginning of the move than the end of the move. It's just people just have to understand that when something goes up like silver went up from April of 26 bucks to 54. I mean, that historically is one of the biggest near-term moves we've seen in silver and the gold move alike. You're going to have flush outs. You're going to have retracements. The key is you look to buy key technical levels on those retracements for those next legs to the upside. >> Yeah, Bitcoin has been, you know, still holding above 100,000, roughly 109,000 today, even after that pullback from the summer highs. Most expected a deeper correction, especially with ETF inflows really slowing here. I mean, does this resilience surprise you? Does the chart tell you we're closer to exhaustion than a breakout? >> I am concerned about Bitcoin and I'll tell you why. So, the stock market, and this is a daily chart of Bitcoin, but the stock market has basically been hitting new all-time highs almost daily here over the last couple weeks. And Bitcoin, we have a very clear top here that was put in in October, early October. So, about 3 weeks ago, four weeks ago now. And it's very concerning that a risk asset like Bitcoin is not seeing more upside in a market where the stock market just keeps going up and up and up. Now, one of the interesting things about this is that historically in 2017, Bitcoin topped out and then four to 6 weeks later, the stock market topped out and had a big correction. In 2021, Bitcoin tops out in November. In December, late December, the stock market topped out and the bare market began. So, I also am worried that Bitcoin is sending us a signal here. Now, going back to this chart, I got to show you this one trend line that has allowed me to not get irrational on Bitcoin's upside. And I love Bitcoin long-term, but I'm also a trader, right? So, I'm looking for pivot points uh where it's going to pull back. And look at this trend line. So, just to just to give you guys a sense, this is your bull market 2017 high. This is your bull market 2021 high. And look at how Bitcoin has hit the line. And every time it hits the line, it gets rejected. And so, while a lot of influencers out out there call for like 200,000, I mean, heck, Michael Sailor, some of these other players are calling for like a million dollar Bitcoin in a short amount of time. I am just a technician and I say, listen, we got to take out this line first. This line has stood the test of time since 2017. Until we take that out, that's my top on Bitcoin. And I would expect downside until we take that out. I mean it's the counter would be obviously people would say you know we're seeing global liquidity expand again stable coin supply kind of climbing and the risk appetite is it seems like it's kind of off the charts could Bitcoin actually be setting up for a second leg meltup just like gold in 79 like one last euphoric run before reality hits or what are your thoughts >> that so that's definitely a possibility and I do think that listen um like I said I'm a huge longer term bull because I'm so I have so and unfortunately so much I have so little respect for the financial system in the US, at least the direction that we're going at this point. Um, that how do you not like something that has a max 21 million coins in it, right? Same thing with gold. It's a precious metal. It's not easy to mine. Um, so there's a limited supply every year of gold that comes out. Um, but at the same time, you know, what concerns me here is we see historically that when the stock market does correct and has a 20, 30, 40, 50% correction that Bitcoin also corrects. And so for me at least with the trend line we just discussed I have to take the underbelly of that with a down move coming more likely than the upside unless we take out that trend line at 127,000. We get above that it's clear sailing. There's really no major resistance there. But until then I'm going with the stock market's close to a correction here and therefore Bitcoin will likely fall and Bitcoin again I think is a leading indicator of that scenario. >> Yeah. Yeah. And you brought up the macro environment there. I mean let's talk about it just for a second. I mean, the Fed's latest cut came with dissent. Kansas City Fed President Schmid warned inflation could stay stickier near 3%. I mean, Powell downplayed a December cut, yet the markets are still pricing more easing. I mean, on your charts, particularly the dollar index, uh, you are we looking at a base forming, just a bounce. I mean, the DXY has been holding near, you know, its best month since July. Does that spell more pressure on commodities? What are your thoughts? >> Yeah, and you're right. I mean, so it was definitely a hawkish cut by Jerome Powell uh in the latest meeting, but I think part of the market, right, I mean, we did see yields go up. The dollar has rallied. Here's your weekly chart on the on the dollar. So, we really have seen a little bit of a bottom on the dollar form. But notice how it's coming off of this massive, massive decline. In fact, one of the worst periods in the dollar is 2025 until this recent little move to the upside. Now, what's interesting about this, right, is that if we look at this trend line, there's a trend line here on the dollar that actually gave us this low. And look at this. Look at how these lows connect perfectly going back to 2014. You could arguably stretch it out even further than that to the low in 2021. And then this is where we're bouncing now. And so for me, I look at the dollar and I say, unfortunately, there's limited upside here. Right? If we look at this zone on this, and let me just grab a tool here so I can draw this in. We can see that this area was support and I'll show you here. Let me draw on this here. So, we came down, we hit it, we hit it, we hit this line, there's this zone over and over again. And then we broke and now it's become resistance. And so ultimately, even though the dollar is showing strength right now, I would actually anticipate a rejection of this zone here and the dollar breaks down significantly with a downside target in the 89s on the DXY. And so I am bearish on the dollar, which again kind of goes to the macro view that while gold could pull back in the near term, it makes sense that if the dollar is going to eventually break lower, gold likely is going higher. And same thing ultimately with Bitcoin. If Bitcoin breaks down, let's say there's a stock market sell, eventually Bitcoin does make new all-time highs down the line. >> Yeah, interesting. Uh Garrett, have you looked at oil today? Anything on WTI? The only reason I ask is we get this latest news out uh President Trump denying reports of a Venezuela strike. Oil is still hovering around 61 a barrel, I think. But I've been talking to some people that think that there's some momentum. There's a way to trade this whole oil spike. >> Yeah. And and this is an interesting one because I would say number one as an economic indicator, the fact that oil is trading near 52- week lows is not a great signal for an economy that we keep on hearing is still hanging in there. The consumer is still spending over and over again. So number one, we did hit a support level on on oil right here. You can see these lows align perfectly on the chart. Um and near-term, what we have here is what's called an uh inverse head and shoulders, right? So we have this little pattern here. inverse head and shoulders are bullish patterns. And so in the near term, oil could be setting up for some sort of move to the upside. But I would caution that the bigger macro, if we zoom out on this, this to me is a bigger macro bearish pattern. And I think copper, honestly, I know we didn't touch on copper here, but let me bring it up. Copper to me is also very concerning. Copper has bounced, but look at how it's inside of this big down move. This is what we refer to as a bare flag. Notice how it's an upside down flag, right? So bear and bull flags just to do a quick educational piece. A bull flag would be a big move up with sideways consolidation like a flag like you have like your little flag there. This here is the flag pole upside down and all of this is inside bearish consolidation. And so while the near-term oil looks bullish and copper is doing okay here, the bigger picture, let's say 3 6 months out are for both charts to break lower. And that to me is also a warning sign for the economy. That's interesting. What are your thoughts on this whole critical minerals, you know, this metals play and we're seeing these President Xi negotiations and what have you. I mean, uh, some of these miners and what have you have kind of taken a little bit of a breath here with the metal prices, but is there still something to be said about these critical minerals? >> Yeah, so names like Kamiko, right? I mean, Kamiko's had such an incredible run to the upside for the uranium play. Um, I do think that once these pull back, they're good buying opportunities. Here's the Kamiko chart here on the daily. You could see what an incredible rally. I mean, to to just put in perspective, Kamiko in April was trading around $34. It just topped out up 212% at at $75. So, you have to let these things backfill. Just like gold, like silver, when things get too extended, think about it like it's a kid going off to the university. It, you know, they come back to for Thanksgiving or for Christmas to home base. Markets and charts do the same thing. It's like a rubber band getting stretched. at some point it snaps back a little bit and that's what we're going to likely see. But I do think the mineral trade continues to be a big one. I just can't pay up at these levels. I've got to be patient and wait for a pullback. >> Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Uh let's let's end with a quick little lightning round. I mean, Bitcoin, we already talked about it. I know it's around 109, but I didn't hear you. I mean, are you you buying the dip? Are you taking profits? What's the point to re-enter here? >> Yeah, that's a great question. Let's take a look at the chart and see what we have here. So, I already have my re-entry level on Bitcoin. uh established. And for me, the first area where I'm going to start accumulating, there's this beautiful ups sloping trend line right here. Uh connecting basically the beginning of the bull market lows back in October of 2023 through the lows here in September of 2024 to the low here in April, which coincided obviously with the stock market collapse. And this level is right around 93,000. And so my guess is into year end we see a dump out in Bitcoin maybe even in November down to about 93 or so and at that point I start inching in just a little bit on Bitcoin. >> All right, Palanteer because uh what a stock. I mean it's near what 200 bucks up about 68% in 6 months. Is it momentum? Is it just mania? >> I think it's mania. I hate to say it, but listen. Um, you know, the valuation, you're now talking in terms of literally x times revenue. Not even earnings, x time, like literally a hundred times revenue or 80 times revenue. Um, Palanteer is a fantastic company, but you could show me the best company in the world at a certain valuation, I'm just stepping back from it. Same thing with Robin Hood. It's a it's a hyped up play. It shouldn't be where it is. Uh, it will have a big correction. So with Palunteer today, we're seeing a reversal with the markets, possibly a topping tail in here. I take the under. I think this thing is going to have a pullback. I'll show you the level here. I would be looking for a pullback in the near term back to about 175. So about a $25 drop here over the next couple weeks in Palanteer. And then if it breaks this trend line, that's where trouble really starts. And if we got a bigger correction in the market, it probably would. If we get your run-of-the-mill 3 to 5% I think market on the S&P it pulls back to this 175 level. If we start doing the 10% correction, that's where again we could see a retrace all the way back to $150 to $125. That's where I would start nibbling a little bit. Again, I just can't pay up for this stuff. You know, we talked about Michael Bur. You know, he made some great quotes recently. He obviously is known from the big short and for calling the market top. He's seeing the same things that I do and it is a cautionary tale for investors. Remember, when the music stops, markets correct. Look at 07 into '08. Look at 99 into 2000. The euphoria is palpable. You It gets you so riled up, especially with social media today. It gets you so pumped up because you think, "Oh, everyone else is making a fortune." Um, and then you get long and you It coaxes you long just before a collapse. Just be careful out there, folks. You will get a pullback at some point and then we can buy. >> Yeah. And we always say the same thing at the end of it, right? Oh, we should have sold. We should have taken a little bit of profit. Um, okay. We've heard throughout the year, I mean, Amazon's really underperformed compared to some of these competitors. I mean, it's uh it's got this cloud breakout. I mean, we're hearing this new revenue. Is there still room to run? Yeah. So, Amazon's an interesting chart. Great gap up on earnings. You could arguably saying this is one of the few that hasn't performed with the Magnificent 7. In fact, if we look here going back to February, until today, that had been its highest point on the chart. So again, it's kind of playing a little catch-up, but my bigger concern is a trend line that takes you back to the highs from 2021. So your bull market high, we connect that through that secondary high, the all-time high in January that was put in into February here. And look at where we are. So to me, there's very limited upside. In fact, after hours, um, Amazon actually tagged this level at 254 to 255. I would be more cautionary here. uh upside is limited, so you could get a little bit, but for me, it's more looking for a back and fill back to the gap fill down here. And by the way, just to bring up Apple as well. This is a really scary chart. Now, Apple's been one of the great performers. We're hearing about how amazing the iPhone, I think 17 sales are going here, but look at where it is on the chart. All right. If you connect all these lows from COVID bare market of 2020, April 2020 liberation selloff and bring it to the bull market. Here's your where tariffs kind of started to come into the picture in the collapse. Look at where we are on Apple. We're literally nearing the end of a potential major parallel channel hit. And to me, I just use data to make decisions. I don't go with my gut, my emotion. To be honest, anytime I trade with emotion, I'm usually wrong. So, I have to just rely on the charts. And if the charts are saying, "Be careful here. You're up into a major parallel trend line," I step back and I say, "You know what? I'll either short it or I'll just stay on the sidelines." >> Yeah. Yeah. And I mean I mean you I've heard some of your analysis, you've noted, right? Apple's repositioning into AI and services yet the services growth while strong. I mean, it's already priced in pretty heavily. And then we talk about those parts of hardware is lagging like the iPads and wearables. I know that the iPhone is up on the sales, but the macro risks are rising. I mean, what must happen on your technical levels for Apple to remain a lead tech story rather than kind of a defensive large cap that's plateauing? >> Yeah. And isn't that interesting how, you know, earlier this year when the stock market would sell off, Apple would go up, right? It was a defensive. Money would rotate into Apple as a defensive. And now all of a sudden, it's the new AI story. It's the new iPhone story. And it's now running, running, running higher. Uh, interesting. By the way, it gapped up on earnings today and has gone actually negative on the day. I don't know where it'll close today, but the idea here is that we're seeing a market where institutional money is starting to come in and sell. And I just want to show this chart because this is just a great example here. So, if we look at this chart, this is Oracle, right? So, Oracle, let me go to the daily chart. Remember, they reported these unbelievable earnings and this massive backlog of like almost, you know, $600 billion. And that literally that day was the top on the stock. And since then it has done nothing but chop and go down to the downside. And again, we've even seen this on Microsoft. Remember last earnings, it gapped up and it fell. Right? And these are telltale signals that while investors like retail are excited about these headlines, the media talks about it. We talk about it. They get very ex exuberant. Institutional money, who who do you think selling these highs? Do you think, you know, John Q public's like, "Oh man, you know, they had really good numbers. I better sell into it." No way. What's happening here is institutional money, big boys like Black Rockck, these players are the ones that are dumping into this euphoria, they know what's coming. They're thinking with logic. They're doing their models. They have their algorithms. They know that things are overdone and we're due for a correction and they're taking money off the table into the retail irrational exuberance. >> Yeah, sounds like a big promoter selling into that liquidity, don't you think? Uh, you know, I got to ask you, I mean, finally, after this $17 trillion run, where are we emotionally? I mean, maximum greed or are investors still doubting the the rally enough for it to keep climbing? I mean, where are we? >> Yeah, I would put us at the extreme greed side at this point to the point where if you think about going back to CO, every drop in the market has s seen a V-shaped recovery after it within a month or so, we've been back to all-time highs. And what that does from a psychological perspective and think about all the new investors that have entered the market since co the younger generations are now fully involved. The younger generations are on Robin Hood. They have their apps out. They're buying all this. They've never experienced a long-term bare market like a period like the NASDAQ in the dot where it took 15 years for it to recover and make new all-time highs. And so this creates this mentality that oh, who cares if I'm down 5 10 15 20%. In a month, I'll be green again and I'll be at new all-time highs. I have been around long enough. I traded through the dot, traded through 0809. It's not that easy. And I worry the markets are con basically letting us start to believe that it is that easy. And and I've listen, I've thought trades were easy on my own and those are the ones that smoke me. And I just would send that cautionary tale out to everyone that eventually we are going to get a smackdown where it doesn't recover. And the higher we go, just like a rubber band stretching, the more tight it gets. And when it finally snaps back, it could be nasty. And so I just want to caution people out there, be careful. There's nothing wrong with taking a profit, putting a little bit on the side in cash, or even looking to buy gold when it pulls back. >> Yeah, Gareth, always sharp as ever. Thank you for walking us through the charts from what you're showing. I mean, we've got a market hitting record highs on AI momentum. These flashing technical resistance, gold consolidating after what, that $4,300 peak and Bitcoin testing its ceiling yet again. Appreciate this. >> Hey, thank you so much for having me. It's been a pleasure. >> All right. And for investors, that means discipline matters more than direction. We'll see if this AIdriven run has more fuel or if it's setting up for another shakeout. For Kiko News, I'm Jeremy Saffron. Thank you for watching. Stay [music] tuned and hit subscribe as we track how these charts play out into November. [music] >> [music] >> Heat. Heat.
Why Soloway Is Selling Stocks for ‘This Huge Gold Buying Opportunity’
Summary
Transcript
Welcome back. I'm Jeremy Saffron. Wall Street's record run is showing its first signs of fatigue. The S&P 500 is hovering near 68.25, [music] just off all-time highs after a $17 trillion surge in global equities since April. Now, tech continues to dominate. Amazon up double digits on cloud growth. Apple steady and Nvidia now the first company in history to top a $5 trillion market cap. But that narrow leadership is raising new alarms. Michael Bur, the investor from the big short, just warned in a tweet that sometimes we see bubbles. He was posting that on X cryptically as mega cap valuations stretch to these extremes. Now, the S&P 500 now trades around 23 times forward earnings. Tech mega caps over 31 times. And yet, Wall Street isn't backing off. That Bank of America reports showed $17 billion in new equity inflows this week with strategists saying AI leadership isn't budging. And meanwhile, gold is under pressure down nearly 1% just under $4,000 an ounce on the spot side as the dollar strengthens and traders question how much longer this rally can last. So that's the crossroads here. Optimism and tech anxiety and metals in a market wondering what breaks first. And that's exactly why Gareth Soloway is here, chief market strategist at verifiedinvesting.com to show us what the charts are saying right now. You've been so accurate this year. Great to have you back. Let's dig in here. Good to see you, Gareth. >> Good to see you, too, Jeremy. Thanks for having me. >> Listen, man, we are talking about it a little bit there. It's been an interesting year. I mean, this this whole week has been an interesting news flow. But that S&P having that historic seven-month streak nearly 40% off the April lows. And and then we get the NASDAQ Hunter just logged its longest winning run in in eight years. On your S&P chart, are we nearing exhaustion? I mean, does this technical setup still allow another meltup into the year end? What are your thoughts? >> Yeah. So, what we have here is the S&P daily chart. And, you know, again, I look at charts. I'm a probability trader. And one of the things that we're starting to see is the exhaustion sign. And one of the most remarkable charts here and factors is if we flip to the weekly chart, and I'm a trend line junkie, so I'm I use trend lines and parallels and they help guide me, right? And so what we're going to do here is we're going to take the low from 2020, which was the COVID low, and we take a trend line and drag it through the bare market low of 2022 all the way up through the liberation sell-off lows. And look at how all of those lines connect perfectly. Those low pivots are all right there. And then what we do is we drag a parallel. What would be the most logical place to go? Go to your bull market high of 2021 right here. And look at where we just hit. And so as a technician, I look at this and I say, "All right, so we know that when we are down at the lows, these are great buying opportunities, right? Even this one in here in 2023. But then if we're at the highs like in 2021, this tends to be a sell signal. And so for me, I say, "Holy cow, we possibly just put in a major top on the market with the potential to see a draw down possibly as as low as around 5400 on the S&P." And I know that's shocking to most people. Everyone's in the vibe right now that oh, the markets can never go down. But I would just like to point out that when you hit key milestones, for instance, Nvidia hit five trillion. You mentioned it. Um, Apple hit four trillion this week. These are key milestones that often times mark tops historically. People need to be aware. >> Yeah. Yeah. Be aware. And, you know, at the same time, of course, we see these earnings, they've been strong, right? I mean, more than 60% of the S&P companies have beaten these expectations. If the fundamentals are this solid, we got to ask, I mean, are bears fighting the tape here? How do how do we reconcile that caution? I mean, we see those lines. So, it's actually probably time for a little bit of a a haircut. >> Yeah, I think I think a little bit of a haircut at minimum. We haven't had a bigger than 3% draw down basically since the liberation selloff in April. Um, but I also think there's some other concerning factors here. We talk about how, you know, how can it be a bubble? These companies are profitable. And the answer is yes, they are. That's true. But in all fairness, Cisco back in 2000 was also profitable. It was Pets.com. these little mini.com companies that weren't and there's a ton of those out there right now in this environment. And one interesting stat and I heard this and I said, "Holy cow, that's incredible." In in 2000, Cisco's market cap was equal to 3.9% of the US GDP. So again, 3.9%. Nvidia's market cap alone is equal to 16% of the GDP in the US. Now, is that normal or is that a bubble? I tend to look at the bubble side of things when things get that over inflated. >> Yeah. Yeah. I want to continue to talk about that AI trade because we've been talking about it almost all year. It's not stopping, but we can't ignore seasonality. I mean, we know November, December historically the strongest two months for equities. Could that override the resistance picture at least temporarily? Yeah. So, it certainly could. And I do think, you know, I think if we're going to get a correction into year end, it needs to be in November because once you get into December, that seasonality and these fund managers that find out that, oh my goodness, I'm lagging the returns in the NASDAQ and the S&P, they have to just start buying. Even if they don't want to buy, they have to play catch-up and they're going to buy in. So, for me at least, November is kind of this zone of where if we're going to get some sort of pullback, we get it. And then I think you probably get a bounce into the end of the year before next year seeing a larger correction. >> Okay. I mean, Nvidia is now worth more than the GDP of Japan. I mean, we got Amazon, Meta, the CloudFare. They're they're all reporting major AI related growth. But then we got this Michael Bur saying it's a bubble. I mean, again, you just talked about the '9s.com period, those pet.com days. What's similar? Just break it down a little bit more. What's similar? What's fundamentally different this time around? Yeah. So, so the similarities, right, you have a lot of the same psychology and psychology drives the market, right? People think, you know, when you look at a chart, it's arbitrary. Whether it goes up or down, it doesn't make any sense. But in reality, as we saw with the S&P, every drop, as scary as it was, it aligned perfectly with a trend line going back to the COVID lows. So, there is order within this chaos. And that same psychology of greed, the markets will never go down. Oh, the Fed will always save us. the government will always print more money and spend more money. That's the same sort of mentality that in many ways we saw in the dotcom bubble about feeling like the markets would never go down. And those are huge concerns. I mean, you have again not just the invidas of the world, which they make a ton of money, but then it's the trickle down effect. And when when you look at things like like this stat here, 75% of the upside in the S&P in the last two years is only due to the AI stocks. So, what's happening to the rest of the market? And then other stats like this, right, where you have people that are making under 200,000 are struggling. And we heard from uh CMG this week. In fact, if you guys could take a look, we can take a look at the chart on CMG here. Look at the drop on Chipotle. And Chipotle clearly came out and said, "Guys, the generation Z uh Y, the generation, you know, all these millennials, they are not able to afford even going out to Chipotle anymore and buying buying burritos essentially like they were." And you know, people that are making more than 200k, these are the people that have lots of investments. The stock market's been going up. So, they're feeling fine. But a huge majority, like 70% of the US population, maybe even 80% is struggling like they're in a recession. And I really do think we have this K-shaped recovery, if you will, or K-shaped economy where you have the people that have investments, the stock market's been going up massively. They're doing great, but everyone else is really struggling. And it's just a matter of time before the stock market stalls, and then those people at the top stop spending, and that's when we see that recession hit. >> Yeah. Yeah. You bring up that Chipotle. I was watching that coverage too. I mean, it's interesting. Could Could it be that that that if the broader market keeps rallying as we're seeing with AI and tech flows that this kind of, you know, value play will outperform despite the current headwinds here? >> I do think value plays are the key, right? And again, you know, we've seen such a condensation, so much focus on the AI names where they've been sucking in this money over and over again. So if someone puts a dollar in the market, we're seeing a massive amount of that money go into the Magnificent 7, the AI play like Nvidia. But I do think there's an opportunity here where you see stocks that are kind of the have nots that have been underperforming. The Fisers of the world, the Nova Nordis, the stuff like that's trading at multi-year lows that pays a dividend. Those are the ones where I actually look at it and say, "Okay, these could be the next play." Just to show a chart here, guys, take a look at this one. This is Fizer. Now fizer has underperformed for a long period of time. I mean you go back it's even trading below the co lows currently right I mean here's the co low when everyone thought the end was near and then obviously fizer had that incredible run because they came up with the vaccine or one of the vaccines but look at where it's trading this pays a 7% dividend now with interest rates going down. I'm thinking to myself okay money flow remember hedge funds don't like to pull money out of the market because they don't make any money if the money's not in the market. they get 20% of profits. So, they need to have that exposure. So, they're not going to probably pull money out of the market until all else p panic hits. But what they're going to do is look for these forsaken plays that pay high dividends to stash money. And look at this beautiful trend line right here. You have it. You have Fizer right at the low end here. I would look for this to go up to like 2750 and even break out above that all along collecting a 7% annual dividend. At least that's where I'm positioning my own capital at this time. >> Yeah. Interesting. Uh you and I chatted just briefly about gold. I mean, I just want to go there for a minute. We'll come back to AI because obviously you saw that. Speaking of haircuts, I mean, you saw that little dip, right? It went down nearly 1% just today, about 39.83 at the time that we taped this, but it peaked at 4,300 earlier this month, and you called the pullback almost to the day. I mean, what's the chart telling you right now? Are we still looking for that, you know, 3500, 3600 accumulation zone? Are we kind of solid here at 4,000? >> Yeah. So, I am still looking for a bigger pullback. It's been a nice pullback thus far, but I'll show this chart here. This is an absolutely remarkable chart how the similarities with 1979 and the price action. So this is the chart here in 2025 and you can see here's in 1979 and this had this beautiful move up and over here in 2025 we had this nice move up. In 79 we had this sideways consolidation. We had the sideways consolidation in 2025 and then after that we had nine straight up weeks in a row in 1979 which led look at this to a big top in gold and a pullback. And what's interesting here is when we pulled back, where did we go? We went back to this general zone right here, which was the previous major high before that consolidation. Well, look over here in 2025, nine straight up weeks. So, exactly the amount of weeks that we saw in 1979, and we've now started to correct. And really, what I'm saying here is that while I think that this time is slightly different, and I'll go over that in a second, where would we expect the pullback to take us? basically back to that former high pivot right here. Just like in 1979, we pulled back there. This is where I start loading the boat on gold. Now, quickly, let's talk about why this is different because I do think it's important to say that, hey, listen, things aren't the same as 1979. For instance, in 1979, Vulkar was raising interest rates. We had like 15, 16, 17, 18% interest rates in the US. Here, we're seeing Jerome Powell lower interest rates. Back then GDP to debt to GDP was 32%. We're now at 130%. The government back in 7980 they were more apt to be negotiating and actually maybe not not spend so crazy. In 2025, you know, yes, we're in a government shutdown which I think ends soon and then the spending will start up again. So while 79 into 80 marked a multi-deade top in gold, I think this pullback is a [snorts] huge buying opportunity for gold where if we get that 35 $3,600 level, I do think we see uh $5,000 in 2026 as a price target. >> Wow. Okay. So you're so that you know if gold is already paralleling that 1979 and we accept that risk exists, but also huge upside remains. I mean, I guess we'll see that dip. Worst case, we got that pull back and then best case is a dramatic surge. >> Yeah, I think that's that's really what I'm thinking is that I don't see any, you know, we heard about Doge early in the year about Elon Musk kind of stopping all this spending that petered out so fast it's it's honestly a little laughable. And so, the government is going to go back to what it does best, which is, you know, apparently during expansionary periods spend a ton of money. Now, what happens when the economy slows and they're actually supposed to stimulate, then they'll probably spend even more. So, you have this fiat currency issue with ddollarization, all these aspects coming in where other countries are now starting to question the validity of the US financial system because of the debt, because of the inability of of Congress to get spending under control. And that inevitably is going to make this pullback much shorter in duration than what we saw in the 70s, 80s, and even into the '9s before new all-time highs are hit. >> Okay. So, I mean, if you're right, and that correction comes to 3536, that might look like weakness, but for long-term holders, I guess it's a setup, right? I mean, they're buying the dip. So, you're preparing kind of you're you're saying this pullback's the opportunity, not just a poke in the eye. >> Yes. Yes. And and the thing is because a lot of investors piled on at the end of the run, it's going to be painful for a lot of people and a lot of people may throw in the towel. I call them the weak hands, the people that bought at 4,000 or 45, you know, 4,300 where it was like, oh, gold can never go down, right? And we're now seeing that in the stock market, right? That same mentality just before probably a flush. And so often times at the end of moves, people the euphoria sets in, the FOMO sets in, people jump in just thinking, oh, it's the easiest trade in the world, just go long gold. The market has this weird way of flushing those people out of getting rid of the weak hands and then the strong survive, right? The strong still hang in there. The strong have been accumulating for years and then price starts to move back up and hit new all-time highs. >> What about silver? I mean, you look at that, Gareth. I mean, it's lagged even more sharply. It's down double digits from its highs. But, I mean, are these corrections kind of healthy resets? Are they early warnings that investors are losing faith in the inflation trade kind of thing? Yeah, I I think more than anything when you have vertical moves in silver, gold, or really anything, it just sets up for a natural correction, right? This is going back to the psychology that we've kind of talked about in markets. And it doesn't matter if it's crypto, if it's stocks, if it's commodities. Human nature is human nature. We get greedy and then we get fearful and then we get greedy again. And it swings like a pendulum back and forth. And what what's so cool about this chart on silver is we can look at this. Here's a parallel. So these lines are exactly parallel. the low in 2008, the fin financial crisis here. That was that low. We connect that low to the low in COVID, the lowest point. And then we simply just take a trend line, a parallel, and drag it up to the high of 2011 and look at where silver stopped going up to a T right at that level. And so this to me as a chart signal allowed me to say, okay, the likelihood is we're going to get a pullback in silver. Now, the bigger question is how much of a pullback, right? And to do that, we need to go into a shorter term time frame. So, I'm flipping over from the monthly chart to the the daily chart. And what I'm really looking for is you can see this trend line right here, how it connects beautifully through right through this area. And so, I'm looking for a pullback to about $43. And then I'm going to start to accumulate silver. Now, keep in mind, I'm not going all in at 43 cuz I always worry that there could be additional downside, but at least that's a point where I can start saying, "Okay, I feel comfortable about getting in silver." And then silver longer term, I have the general same view that if the if the US and the world continues to just print our way out of of disasters of financial kind of mismanagement, then inevitably silver longer term goes up. The only thing with silver be a little bit more careful because it's more apt to be adjustable to economic factors. We know it's an industrial metal as well. And I do just caution people that the volatility could be much bigger in terms of swings than gold. >> Yeah. Okay. So 43 bucks. I mean could could it be like gold a little bit? Could we see that big swing like you know the 45? >> I do think so. I do think so. And I think again the metals overall have been in slumber for so long that when when we get this move to the upside, I believe it's closer to the beginning of the move than the end of the move. It's just people just have to understand that when something goes up like silver went up from April of 26 bucks to 54. I mean, that historically is one of the biggest near-term moves we've seen in silver and the gold move alike. You're going to have flush outs. You're going to have retracements. The key is you look to buy key technical levels on those retracements for those next legs to the upside. >> Yeah, Bitcoin has been, you know, still holding above 100,000, roughly 109,000 today, even after that pullback from the summer highs. Most expected a deeper correction, especially with ETF inflows really slowing here. I mean, does this resilience surprise you? Does the chart tell you we're closer to exhaustion than a breakout? >> I am concerned about Bitcoin and I'll tell you why. So, the stock market, and this is a daily chart of Bitcoin, but the stock market has basically been hitting new all-time highs almost daily here over the last couple weeks. And Bitcoin, we have a very clear top here that was put in in October, early October. So, about 3 weeks ago, four weeks ago now. And it's very concerning that a risk asset like Bitcoin is not seeing more upside in a market where the stock market just keeps going up and up and up. Now, one of the interesting things about this is that historically in 2017, Bitcoin topped out and then four to 6 weeks later, the stock market topped out and had a big correction. In 2021, Bitcoin tops out in November. In December, late December, the stock market topped out and the bare market began. So, I also am worried that Bitcoin is sending us a signal here. Now, going back to this chart, I got to show you this one trend line that has allowed me to not get irrational on Bitcoin's upside. And I love Bitcoin long-term, but I'm also a trader, right? So, I'm looking for pivot points uh where it's going to pull back. And look at this trend line. So, just to just to give you guys a sense, this is your bull market 2017 high. This is your bull market 2021 high. And look at how Bitcoin has hit the line. And every time it hits the line, it gets rejected. And so, while a lot of influencers out out there call for like 200,000, I mean, heck, Michael Sailor, some of these other players are calling for like a million dollar Bitcoin in a short amount of time. I am just a technician and I say, listen, we got to take out this line first. This line has stood the test of time since 2017. Until we take that out, that's my top on Bitcoin. And I would expect downside until we take that out. I mean it's the counter would be obviously people would say you know we're seeing global liquidity expand again stable coin supply kind of climbing and the risk appetite is it seems like it's kind of off the charts could Bitcoin actually be setting up for a second leg meltup just like gold in 79 like one last euphoric run before reality hits or what are your thoughts >> that so that's definitely a possibility and I do think that listen um like I said I'm a huge longer term bull because I'm so I have so and unfortunately so much I have so little respect for the financial system in the US, at least the direction that we're going at this point. Um, that how do you not like something that has a max 21 million coins in it, right? Same thing with gold. It's a precious metal. It's not easy to mine. Um, so there's a limited supply every year of gold that comes out. Um, but at the same time, you know, what concerns me here is we see historically that when the stock market does correct and has a 20, 30, 40, 50% correction that Bitcoin also corrects. And so for me at least with the trend line we just discussed I have to take the underbelly of that with a down move coming more likely than the upside unless we take out that trend line at 127,000. We get above that it's clear sailing. There's really no major resistance there. But until then I'm going with the stock market's close to a correction here and therefore Bitcoin will likely fall and Bitcoin again I think is a leading indicator of that scenario. >> Yeah. Yeah. And you brought up the macro environment there. I mean let's talk about it just for a second. I mean, the Fed's latest cut came with dissent. Kansas City Fed President Schmid warned inflation could stay stickier near 3%. I mean, Powell downplayed a December cut, yet the markets are still pricing more easing. I mean, on your charts, particularly the dollar index, uh, you are we looking at a base forming, just a bounce. I mean, the DXY has been holding near, you know, its best month since July. Does that spell more pressure on commodities? What are your thoughts? >> Yeah, and you're right. I mean, so it was definitely a hawkish cut by Jerome Powell uh in the latest meeting, but I think part of the market, right, I mean, we did see yields go up. The dollar has rallied. Here's your weekly chart on the on the dollar. So, we really have seen a little bit of a bottom on the dollar form. But notice how it's coming off of this massive, massive decline. In fact, one of the worst periods in the dollar is 2025 until this recent little move to the upside. Now, what's interesting about this, right, is that if we look at this trend line, there's a trend line here on the dollar that actually gave us this low. And look at this. Look at how these lows connect perfectly going back to 2014. You could arguably stretch it out even further than that to the low in 2021. And then this is where we're bouncing now. And so for me, I look at the dollar and I say, unfortunately, there's limited upside here. Right? If we look at this zone on this, and let me just grab a tool here so I can draw this in. We can see that this area was support and I'll show you here. Let me draw on this here. So, we came down, we hit it, we hit it, we hit this line, there's this zone over and over again. And then we broke and now it's become resistance. And so ultimately, even though the dollar is showing strength right now, I would actually anticipate a rejection of this zone here and the dollar breaks down significantly with a downside target in the 89s on the DXY. And so I am bearish on the dollar, which again kind of goes to the macro view that while gold could pull back in the near term, it makes sense that if the dollar is going to eventually break lower, gold likely is going higher. And same thing ultimately with Bitcoin. If Bitcoin breaks down, let's say there's a stock market sell, eventually Bitcoin does make new all-time highs down the line. >> Yeah, interesting. Uh Garrett, have you looked at oil today? Anything on WTI? The only reason I ask is we get this latest news out uh President Trump denying reports of a Venezuela strike. Oil is still hovering around 61 a barrel, I think. But I've been talking to some people that think that there's some momentum. There's a way to trade this whole oil spike. >> Yeah. And and this is an interesting one because I would say number one as an economic indicator, the fact that oil is trading near 52- week lows is not a great signal for an economy that we keep on hearing is still hanging in there. The consumer is still spending over and over again. So number one, we did hit a support level on on oil right here. You can see these lows align perfectly on the chart. Um and near-term, what we have here is what's called an uh inverse head and shoulders, right? So we have this little pattern here. inverse head and shoulders are bullish patterns. And so in the near term, oil could be setting up for some sort of move to the upside. But I would caution that the bigger macro, if we zoom out on this, this to me is a bigger macro bearish pattern. And I think copper, honestly, I know we didn't touch on copper here, but let me bring it up. Copper to me is also very concerning. Copper has bounced, but look at how it's inside of this big down move. This is what we refer to as a bare flag. Notice how it's an upside down flag, right? So bear and bull flags just to do a quick educational piece. A bull flag would be a big move up with sideways consolidation like a flag like you have like your little flag there. This here is the flag pole upside down and all of this is inside bearish consolidation. And so while the near-term oil looks bullish and copper is doing okay here, the bigger picture, let's say 3 6 months out are for both charts to break lower. And that to me is also a warning sign for the economy. That's interesting. What are your thoughts on this whole critical minerals, you know, this metals play and we're seeing these President Xi negotiations and what have you. I mean, uh, some of these miners and what have you have kind of taken a little bit of a breath here with the metal prices, but is there still something to be said about these critical minerals? >> Yeah, so names like Kamiko, right? I mean, Kamiko's had such an incredible run to the upside for the uranium play. Um, I do think that once these pull back, they're good buying opportunities. Here's the Kamiko chart here on the daily. You could see what an incredible rally. I mean, to to just put in perspective, Kamiko in April was trading around $34. It just topped out up 212% at at $75. So, you have to let these things backfill. Just like gold, like silver, when things get too extended, think about it like it's a kid going off to the university. It, you know, they come back to for Thanksgiving or for Christmas to home base. Markets and charts do the same thing. It's like a rubber band getting stretched. at some point it snaps back a little bit and that's what we're going to likely see. But I do think the mineral trade continues to be a big one. I just can't pay up at these levels. I've got to be patient and wait for a pullback. >> Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Uh let's let's end with a quick little lightning round. I mean, Bitcoin, we already talked about it. I know it's around 109, but I didn't hear you. I mean, are you you buying the dip? Are you taking profits? What's the point to re-enter here? >> Yeah, that's a great question. Let's take a look at the chart and see what we have here. So, I already have my re-entry level on Bitcoin. uh established. And for me, the first area where I'm going to start accumulating, there's this beautiful ups sloping trend line right here. Uh connecting basically the beginning of the bull market lows back in October of 2023 through the lows here in September of 2024 to the low here in April, which coincided obviously with the stock market collapse. And this level is right around 93,000. And so my guess is into year end we see a dump out in Bitcoin maybe even in November down to about 93 or so and at that point I start inching in just a little bit on Bitcoin. >> All right, Palanteer because uh what a stock. I mean it's near what 200 bucks up about 68% in 6 months. Is it momentum? Is it just mania? >> I think it's mania. I hate to say it, but listen. Um, you know, the valuation, you're now talking in terms of literally x times revenue. Not even earnings, x time, like literally a hundred times revenue or 80 times revenue. Um, Palanteer is a fantastic company, but you could show me the best company in the world at a certain valuation, I'm just stepping back from it. Same thing with Robin Hood. It's a it's a hyped up play. It shouldn't be where it is. Uh, it will have a big correction. So with Palunteer today, we're seeing a reversal with the markets, possibly a topping tail in here. I take the under. I think this thing is going to have a pullback. I'll show you the level here. I would be looking for a pullback in the near term back to about 175. So about a $25 drop here over the next couple weeks in Palanteer. And then if it breaks this trend line, that's where trouble really starts. And if we got a bigger correction in the market, it probably would. If we get your run-of-the-mill 3 to 5% I think market on the S&P it pulls back to this 175 level. If we start doing the 10% correction, that's where again we could see a retrace all the way back to $150 to $125. That's where I would start nibbling a little bit. Again, I just can't pay up for this stuff. You know, we talked about Michael Bur. You know, he made some great quotes recently. He obviously is known from the big short and for calling the market top. He's seeing the same things that I do and it is a cautionary tale for investors. Remember, when the music stops, markets correct. Look at 07 into '08. Look at 99 into 2000. The euphoria is palpable. You It gets you so riled up, especially with social media today. It gets you so pumped up because you think, "Oh, everyone else is making a fortune." Um, and then you get long and you It coaxes you long just before a collapse. Just be careful out there, folks. You will get a pullback at some point and then we can buy. >> Yeah. And we always say the same thing at the end of it, right? Oh, we should have sold. We should have taken a little bit of profit. Um, okay. We've heard throughout the year, I mean, Amazon's really underperformed compared to some of these competitors. I mean, it's uh it's got this cloud breakout. I mean, we're hearing this new revenue. Is there still room to run? Yeah. So, Amazon's an interesting chart. Great gap up on earnings. You could arguably saying this is one of the few that hasn't performed with the Magnificent 7. In fact, if we look here going back to February, until today, that had been its highest point on the chart. So again, it's kind of playing a little catch-up, but my bigger concern is a trend line that takes you back to the highs from 2021. So your bull market high, we connect that through that secondary high, the all-time high in January that was put in into February here. And look at where we are. So to me, there's very limited upside. In fact, after hours, um, Amazon actually tagged this level at 254 to 255. I would be more cautionary here. uh upside is limited, so you could get a little bit, but for me, it's more looking for a back and fill back to the gap fill down here. And by the way, just to bring up Apple as well. This is a really scary chart. Now, Apple's been one of the great performers. We're hearing about how amazing the iPhone, I think 17 sales are going here, but look at where it is on the chart. All right. If you connect all these lows from COVID bare market of 2020, April 2020 liberation selloff and bring it to the bull market. Here's your where tariffs kind of started to come into the picture in the collapse. Look at where we are on Apple. We're literally nearing the end of a potential major parallel channel hit. And to me, I just use data to make decisions. I don't go with my gut, my emotion. To be honest, anytime I trade with emotion, I'm usually wrong. So, I have to just rely on the charts. And if the charts are saying, "Be careful here. You're up into a major parallel trend line," I step back and I say, "You know what? I'll either short it or I'll just stay on the sidelines." >> Yeah. Yeah. And I mean I mean you I've heard some of your analysis, you've noted, right? Apple's repositioning into AI and services yet the services growth while strong. I mean, it's already priced in pretty heavily. And then we talk about those parts of hardware is lagging like the iPads and wearables. I know that the iPhone is up on the sales, but the macro risks are rising. I mean, what must happen on your technical levels for Apple to remain a lead tech story rather than kind of a defensive large cap that's plateauing? >> Yeah. And isn't that interesting how, you know, earlier this year when the stock market would sell off, Apple would go up, right? It was a defensive. Money would rotate into Apple as a defensive. And now all of a sudden, it's the new AI story. It's the new iPhone story. And it's now running, running, running higher. Uh, interesting. By the way, it gapped up on earnings today and has gone actually negative on the day. I don't know where it'll close today, but the idea here is that we're seeing a market where institutional money is starting to come in and sell. And I just want to show this chart because this is just a great example here. So, if we look at this chart, this is Oracle, right? So, Oracle, let me go to the daily chart. Remember, they reported these unbelievable earnings and this massive backlog of like almost, you know, $600 billion. And that literally that day was the top on the stock. And since then it has done nothing but chop and go down to the downside. And again, we've even seen this on Microsoft. Remember last earnings, it gapped up and it fell. Right? And these are telltale signals that while investors like retail are excited about these headlines, the media talks about it. We talk about it. They get very ex exuberant. Institutional money, who who do you think selling these highs? Do you think, you know, John Q public's like, "Oh man, you know, they had really good numbers. I better sell into it." No way. What's happening here is institutional money, big boys like Black Rockck, these players are the ones that are dumping into this euphoria, they know what's coming. They're thinking with logic. They're doing their models. They have their algorithms. They know that things are overdone and we're due for a correction and they're taking money off the table into the retail irrational exuberance. >> Yeah, sounds like a big promoter selling into that liquidity, don't you think? Uh, you know, I got to ask you, I mean, finally, after this $17 trillion run, where are we emotionally? I mean, maximum greed or are investors still doubting the the rally enough for it to keep climbing? I mean, where are we? >> Yeah, I would put us at the extreme greed side at this point to the point where if you think about going back to CO, every drop in the market has s seen a V-shaped recovery after it within a month or so, we've been back to all-time highs. And what that does from a psychological perspective and think about all the new investors that have entered the market since co the younger generations are now fully involved. The younger generations are on Robin Hood. They have their apps out. They're buying all this. They've never experienced a long-term bare market like a period like the NASDAQ in the dot where it took 15 years for it to recover and make new all-time highs. And so this creates this mentality that oh, who cares if I'm down 5 10 15 20%. In a month, I'll be green again and I'll be at new all-time highs. I have been around long enough. I traded through the dot, traded through 0809. It's not that easy. And I worry the markets are con basically letting us start to believe that it is that easy. And and I've listen, I've thought trades were easy on my own and those are the ones that smoke me. And I just would send that cautionary tale out to everyone that eventually we are going to get a smackdown where it doesn't recover. And the higher we go, just like a rubber band stretching, the more tight it gets. And when it finally snaps back, it could be nasty. And so I just want to caution people out there, be careful. There's nothing wrong with taking a profit, putting a little bit on the side in cash, or even looking to buy gold when it pulls back. >> Yeah, Gareth, always sharp as ever. Thank you for walking us through the charts from what you're showing. I mean, we've got a market hitting record highs on AI momentum. These flashing technical resistance, gold consolidating after what, that $4,300 peak and Bitcoin testing its ceiling yet again. Appreciate this. >> Hey, thank you so much for having me. It's been a pleasure. >> All right. And for investors, that means discipline matters more than direction. We'll see if this AIdriven run has more fuel or if it's setting up for another shakeout. For Kiko News, I'm Jeremy Saffron. Thank you for watching. Stay [music] tuned and hit subscribe as we track how these charts play out into November. [music] >> [music] >> Heat. Heat.