Will The Iran War Oil Price Shock Sink Stocks? | Lance Roberts

Summary

Transcript

I've laid out kind of kind of three scenarios for the markets and this is what we're working through right now is kind of these three scenarios. How long does this actually take and what's the impact to markets, GDP, etc. >> Oh, this is awesome. This is what everybody wants to see. >> Welcome to Thoughtful Money. I'm Thoughtful Money founder and your host, Adam Tagert, welcoming you here at the end of the week for another weekly market recap featuring my good friend, the epically furious portfolio manager, Lance Roberts. Lance, how you doing? >> Why am I epically furious? >> Well, guys, we're going to talk a little bit about the impact of the war and it is Operation Epic Fury. >> Ah, gotcha. Gotcha. Okay. >> Yeah. Um, real quick before we get >> I was over here furiously working. So, >> yeah. Well, you work furiously. You're kind of epic. Sometimes you make me furious, sometimes you make me epically furious. >> There you go. There you go. >> Applies in all sorts of ways. Um and and real quick before we uh we jump into the details here. Um >> just a reminder for folks if you're watching this video the day it launches, which is Saturday, you have like less than 48 hours to purchase your ticket for the um thoughtful money spring online conference if you haven't already. Um, I'll remind everybody about all the details about it at the end of this discussion, but uh, it is our best faculty yet. Could not be more timely, especially with everything that's going on in the Middle East. Um, so if you haven't bought your ticket yet, um, sorry, it's it's your last chance to buy your ticket at the last chance to save price. So, the conference itself isn't until uh, a week away from now. Uh, yeah, exactly a week away from now. Um, but the price goes up to the full price uh, at midnight on Sunday. So you can still get it at the last chance to save discount by going to thoughtfulmoney.com/conference and that link also has all the details uh everybody in the faculty the whole agenda for the day. It's going to be wonderful. Um all right Lance so um uh you we've talked a little bit about uh the the impact of the war on the markets. you know, you've said in general these tend to not drive market actions that much unless until and unless it impacts the market's um earnings expectations. And what we have seen in this war uh is that the price of oil has uh has become much more volatile. It's raised materially. Uh you got up as high as about $120 a barrel um briefly. Uh it's now down more like around $100 a barrel, although I haven't looked at it yet this morning. Um but but obviously if that is something that the markets think could sustain then that does start to roll into corporate profit margins. Obviously we've seen the markets be a bit more uh weak and some additional volatility entered into the markets here right now. What type of um discount do you think war discount uh the markets are applying and do you expect that all things being equal to get worse from here? >> So couple things. So you know where you know and this is so in general your statement is absolutely correct right um but you also have to drill down into the areas of the market they're going to be impacted most so for instance you know at the beginning of this year we were you and I were talking about this kind of this reflation narrative and I wrote a couple articles about this reflation idea that this economic growth resurgent this year was going to occur and that was benefiting areas like staples energy materials industrials, utilities, they were doing they were trading exceptionally well. Emerging markets and international markets were trading exceptionally well. And ever ever since this started, those have been the areas that have been hit the hardest and and the the companies like Nvidian, the Mag 7 actually have been holding up much better. And we've seen this rotation back to growth a bit because the the impact of the war or shouldn't it's not a war, right? We haven't declared war. the the the the outcome of this military conflict and what's going on on oil prices isn't going to impact the earnings of Google as much as it's going to impact the earnings of say a Walmart or Target um where where higher gasoline prices are going to impair the consumer. So if you think about where an oil spike is and and some of the estimates are, you know, if this is sustained for 90 days or 180 days at these price levels, that's $6 to $800 in additional energy costs that a consumer will pay. Well, that they don't have an extra $600 to $800. It has to come from somewhere else in their budget, right? And that's going to that will obviously cut back on them, you know, shopping as much at Target or shopping as much at, you know, a Walmart or a Costco or whatever it is. So that's why we're seeing this this bit of riskoff rotation in the areas that were the most beloved areas and we had a lot of that momentum chase in those areas and that's been unwinding pretty sharply over the last couple of weeks. So again, this is why the headline index hasn't come down that much because you take a look at the S&P 500. Yes, it's come down, but the the B those five six sectors of the market, they make up less of the market cap than technology alone. So again, that's why the the overall index hasn't come down as much as some of these other sectors. >> Okay. Um so I mean I think in reality the answer depends on how long you know this conflict persists. Um is if you know the straits really this is largely cons around concerns around the straits of Hormuz or the straight of Hormuz um and whether um tanker traffic will resume going through there or not anytime soon. Obviously, the longer it takes for that to happen, the larger the oil price shock will be to the economy. Correct. >> Correct. Yeah. Yeah. And again, you I think you two weeks ago um when you and I were talking because I was not here last Friday, it was it was Michael Leewitz, but I was, you know, I said at some point, you know, they're going to have to resolve that. you know, put a couple of destroyers in the middle of the straight at Hormuz, protect it so ships can come through and you know, so again, they're going to have to do something to open that straight back up so that those ships can start to move crude oil again because 20% of that supply is being disrupted. And that's that's a very big disruption on oil supply that is is primarily going to impact Europe more than the US because we have a lot of supply here. But it's certainly going to impact global oil prices which is the was what feeds through into everything else. Right. >> Yeah. And just to clarify, uh you said 20% was restricted. 20% of the world's oil supply goes through the >> straight of hormuz's traffic isn't moving through right now. Although we've heard reports of Chinese ships making it through and I think an Indian tanker is reported to have just made it through. >> Um but but most ships aren't. Um all right. So, um, you know, this all depends on how long this lasts, as we talked about. Um, Lance, I have been learning in real time the dangers about talking about, uh, reported intelligence on the war, uh, on a live pro on a on a public program like this because invariably there are lots of people out there who get their news from different sources who aren't going to believe, you know, no matter what you say, there's going to be a cohort that doesn't like what you say or doesn't believe what you say. Um but um basing it off of official reports and I try to listen to um the daily reports from the department of war that are just you know recapping what happened yesterday and lay out the plan for today and I leave it up to everybody watching whether you want to believe that or not. Um you know they are saying that um uh obviously the war is going very well. Um we have full air superiority. um we've diminished the missile and uh drone launches I think by like 90 to 95% uh since the start of the war. So in terms of degrading Iran's capabilities just to strike at things. Um doesn't mean that Iran isn't still striking at things. They obviously are. We're we're reading about them every day. Um but basically oh and they've they've sunk basically Iran's navy they're saying is functionally inoperative right now. It sounds like there's still some ships out there, but they have gotten most of them. They're obviously um uh there's been sort of rumors about Iran mining the straight today. They said they don't think they've done that and they certainly have means to remove the mines if they want to. Whole whole point being is is I think right now with the information we have, which may be quite imperfect, but with the information we have, it seems like this the odds are that this will still be relatively short-lived. And by that I mean probably weeks. And there's really two reasons it could be short-lived. One is we could do exactly what you said, Lance, which is we could degrade their capabilities enough that we feel comfortable putting our warships in the Gulf and we just escort everybody through there, right? Um the second is is that the the operation could be over. Um and you know, the president has said many times, ah it's practically almost over. you know, we don't want to leave too soon, but you know, and um and whether you believe him or not, I'm going to I'm going to stick my neck out and share something and love to get your reaction to it, um Lance, which is, you know, I I totally understand the concerns that this could turn into a forever war and boots on the ground and it's another Iraq or it's another Afghanistan. The administration, at least at face value, seems to be saying, "Look, we're totally aware of that concern. This is not one of those wars. That's not our objective here." they've had their four objectives that they've been pretty consistent about. Um, but just looking at Trump's history here, it it seems that he's got a pretty uh consistent pattern of basically certain everything he does here is a gamble. It's a roll the dice. It could certainly blow up in his face, but he basically says, "Look, I've got a problem. I'm going to go use some some immediate acute force to try to make that problem better." Not necessarily saying I'm going to solve the problem forever, but like let's look at Venezuela with Maduro, right? I'm going to roll the dice. I'm going to go in there. We're going to try to take this guy out. Maybe it won't work. You know, worst case scenario, if it doesn't, I have the same issue I had yesterday. But if I replace him, I get him out of there. I put somebody else, you know, in charge of Venezuela or let the next person go in. Well, hopefully they'll be better than Maduro, right? And then things are better for me. But if they aren't, I'm no I'm no worse off than I was before, right? So, like I don't I I I would encourage people not to dismiss the odds of just at some point Trump just saying, "Okay, we're done." You know, yeah, you know, we didn't have regime change. It's still the same Mueller regime that's that's running Iran. But hey, we've totally set them back many, many years. You know, hopefully we put the fear of God in them that if they displease us again, we'll just come right back in and do this. So, maybe they'll be a little bit more compliant or maybe they'll be at least a little less antagonistic. and we've certainly degraded a lot of what they can do and it's going to take them many years to rebuild that if that's what they choose to do. So in his mind that's a better right so anyways curious to hear your thoughts on that. No, no. I mean, it's, you know, you know, this is always the problem when we go into these, you know, type of conflicts is not having a clear-cut end goal where it's like are we're just going to go in and this is our goal and we accomplished this goal, we're done. And, you know, either they don't have that fully laid out and this was kind of one of the problems we went into, we did shock and awe with under George W. Bush in in Iraq, which is we went in to Iraq with this whole idea that they're weapons of mass destruction, etc. But there wasn't a real endgame. And even some of the generals back then complained about the issue is like there's not an endgame to this. You know, if we're if we're here to conquer and do regime change, that's fine, whatever it is, but lay out that goal, lay out that process so we can accomplish it. And so that seems to be the one kind of thing that's sitting up in the air is like how how do we get out? How do we back out of this? Right? So, is is the end goal of this just to, you know, resolve their ability to create nuclear weapons entirely? If that's the goal, that's great. That's fine. Or is it a regime change or what is it? And so, I think that at some point they're going to have to define what that end goal is and then go after that objective. And so, and maybe they have that, you know, I'm not >> just to be clear. >> Yeah. So, I am listening to the daily reports. And again, folks, I'm not swallowing everything whole cloth, but I do I do want to hear what they're they're saying. Um, Hegath has been really clear from like the first day. This is not a regime change war. This is not and and he talks about serving in Afghanistan and getting to the point where he was like, "What are we doing here?" Like, I'm so unclear on the mission. So, they in their mind, they're they're very specific about what the objectives are and when they'll pull out. That might not be crystal clear to the public. So, you know, make up your own mind on that. But, yeah. >> Right. No, and I think that's and again, I think that's what we need to know is exactly what is the goal, where where does this end so that we can can resolve this issue and then pull back and then kind of set things back to normal. My my point is this is that it's all about time. And if if you know, if the market if this is a 30-day event, beginning to end, 30, 60 days, the markets are going to be fine. Um, we'll work through this. the markets may be off, you know, five 10% in total and and the markets will work through this process, right? But but if this if this starts to sustain out where it becomes 90 days, 180 days, 240 days, you're going to start looking a whole lot like we were back during the Russia Ukraine invasion in 2022. And that's where you're going to start talking about markets being down 20 25%. because that's going to start because because that length of time that oil prices are elevated is going to deteriorate the economic underpinnings. And so all this idea that we had at the beginning of this year about this reflation trade and economic strength and all this that's going to go out the window. In fact, the what we're talking about right now is is my entire newsletter for this weekend. >> Okay? >> Which is laying out the recession risk and and it's all about time. And so the more time that you have of elevated oil prices that translate into higher gasoline and energy prices, the less time you have between now and the next recession. >> Got it. So if we have reflation here, which was sort of the the the odds on the odds on outcome at the beginning of the year, the longer the time goes on uh of this this conflict, the odds of recession over here perhaps get, you know, higher and higher, right? So it's all what's it's all down to what's the duration's going to be. Well, and also to remember this whole reflation era at the beginning of the year was really faulty and and it was all based on this premise that economic growth was going to come surging back because of you know tax cuts and deregulation and the one big beautiful bill >> but the areas that were reflating and you and I I showed you the graphs and we've talked about it in previous shows is that the areas that were inflating have the lowest rate has the lowest growth rate of earnings of all the sectors and we're talking about Walmart and Target growing at 5% a and we were selling off the companies with 25 and 30% earnings growth a year and and so the narrative really never made sense particularly when you when you match that up to the economic data which is you know employment has been basically flat unemployment or actually employment has been negligible at best over the last 3 to four to five months. plenty of data showing that the economy and from the consumer side is starting to slow down and yeah, we're seeing some minor upticks in some of the manufacturing indexes, but those are likely going to be shortlived, particularly now because of what's happening overseas. >> All right. Well, it's going to be interesting and that's what we do this that's why we do this on a weekly basis so we can keep keep people updated here. Um, all I want to say back to you about the the war and the importance of that time. I agree with everything you said, Lance, and and the longer this goes on, the worse the prospects are for the global economy, the US economy, and the markets. Um, all I'm saying is is um don't dismiss the potential of at any point, an hour from now that that President Trump could just say, you know, some people might call it taco, you know, chicken out, but but he would certainly call it as nope, I got everything done needed to get done. We're out. Um I I I just I think his um hurdle for for ending this thing is probably a lot lower than most people expect that the moment he thinks it starts to become a net negative for him. I think he can say, "Look, the way I define the the outcome or the objectives, we're close enough. We're out of there in his mind. It's better than what we had a month ago, right? The So, he's going to declare victory and he's just going to move on to the next thing." You know, can that happen here? Look, I know a ton of people are going to say, "Wait a minute. Nope. You broke it at this point. You bought it. This is going to take a lot longer. There going to be all these repercussions." I mean, I I totally not fighting you in any of that. I'm just saying don't don't diminish the president's potential here to just say we're done. >> Yeah. No, no. I I look I you know you can debate this, you know, nine ways to Sunday and everybody's got an opinion. If you like the president, you have one opinion of this. If you if you don't like the president, then you have another opinion of all this. And you know, if you're supporting Iran, you have an opinion. And and that's the whole problem with all this is that particularly if you know social media is just been fascinating to read over the last couple of weeks because people are just spouting off stuff that has absolutely no basis in reality. But you know they honestly believe that whatever side they're on is the actual factual side and and it's it's just it's you know a lot of this stuff is just you have to go back and look at history. I mean, this isn't the first time that we've had these events and where we've had oil oil oil supply spikes. I mean, we had, you know, the Suez Canal, we've had the Gulf War One. You know, we've been through these things before and we know what the outcomes of this is going to be ultimately for the commodities markets and for the stock market. But it's always interesting that every time we get into this, everybody's immediately, oh, this is the end of the world. um you know everything's going to zero, interest rates are going to go to 50%, the you know the dollar is going to die and you know and and just it it's just fascinating because all we have to do is go back and look at history and history's a very good guide about what these outcomes are and so if you just pay attention to history you'll be fine. So, um, we're going to talk in just a moment here about private credit, which again, I'm hearing very similar things, you know, from from the social media sphere as well. Again, is, okay, this is 2008 all over again, right? This is this is the Lehman moment. Um, so we're going to talk about that in just a moment, but I I got a couple more questions for you about the the implications of what's going on um with this conflict. Um, but real quick to the point you just made, Lance, um, I'm wondering if you're seeing similar things that I'm seeing, which is I am getting more so obviously people are very heated about this topic, right? For all the reasons that you just mentioned, it's a very emotional topic for a lot of people. Um, more often than not, I have been getting emails and direct messages on Twitter and things like that of people who are putting a lot of effort into writing me about how they feel and about how it should be how I feel and how Adam you need to do like this is the time where you know men of good character have to do X. And what's so interesting is um I appreciate it. I respect it. I don't always agree with what the person is telling me I must do. But for every email I get saying I've got to be doing X in this direction, I've got communications the other side saying I have to be doing Y in the other direction. People are just really jinned up right now. >> No, it is. And and and what I I get the exact same emails. I just had one this morning. And what it what I found out that it comes down to after and this is probably a function of 150 or 200 different emails from different people and probably about 50/50 split. I I don't you know it's it's you know I if there's a slight bias one way or the other it's very small but it literally comes down to whether or not you like the president and your feelings about the president and if you don't and and and that's it and and pretty much is like oh I completely agree with everything that's going on. we need to do this, this, and this, you know, go America, right? And you know, the other side is this is all terrible. It's the end of the world. I support Iran. Hate Trump. >> That's fine. But the problem is is you're letting that view I in both both directions, you're letting that view invest your affect your investment outcomes, you know. So the the hate Trump side is like, I'm out of the market completely. You know, I'm just I'm done. I'm out. And that's fine. Nothing wrong with that. But this market is going to rally back very very strongly here at some point. Might be today, might be tomorrow, might be next week, might be next month, but you're going to get a very very strong rally that you're going to miss out on because of your bias. Other way around and it's the same on the other side, right? So, you know, don't let your political biases affect your investment outcome because that's why we're here, right? That's why we're talking this morning is that want to know about money and and how to make how to build wealth and how to take advantage of the capitalist system. that's why we're here. So, let's not all let our political biases affect that outlook for our money. >> So, totally agree with you. And I've asked this question a lot over the past week and a half, but I guess I haven't asked it of you because you haven't been on for two weeks. >> Um, I've been asking people, how much of a relief rally, if any, do you expect if this conflict has ended relatively soon? And and most people have said, "Ah, maybe a little." Um, sounds like you think maybe a little bit more than that. We'll get to that in just a second, but before we get to Relief Rally, let me get through a couple other things. So, um, you know, when I have you and Michael on, and we'll do this in just a minute. Um, you pull up the chart of the S&P and we talk about what the technicals are telling us. And when Michael pulled it up last week, we had we had broken down below, if I'm doing this from memory, uh, correctly, uh, the 20-day and the 50-day. And I asked Michael, okay, so when are you going to start to get worried? and he said basically when it breaks below the 100 day and the 100 day at the time was around 6,500 on the S&P. We got really close to that the other day um and on the day we're talking here I think we're in the mid um you know 6,600 rangeish um on the S&P. So my question for you Lance is how concerned at all are you with any of the technical damage that's been done over the past week? Well, so so let's let's let's just share a chart so we we're all on the same page because I'm not sure what conversation you and Mike had because I don't listen one vacation. Um >> but >> but my question is a pretty broad one. you know, has there been any technical damage that >> has? And this actually goes back to our conversation uh two Fridays ago where we talked about the article I wrote talked about, you know, this market topping process that we were in and and I laid out that chart of the market topping process and said, "Hey, you know, we're having this rounded top and, you know, we're if we break support, the 100 day moving average, that's going to be very important." So this is today's action where my cursor is right now. So Friday, Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday, Monday. Friday was here's your conversation with Mike. You're below the 100 day moving average. So again, I'm not sure exactly what y'all were looking at last Friday. And I'm not saying anybody was right or wrong, but we were below the 100 day moving average about midweek last week. We took that out. And so that decline when we took that out it turned all the sellers that all the buyers that were there into sellers. So all the systemic traders the algorithmic traders etc all turned into sellers at that level. So this this bar graph on the on the right hand side this is volume at price. So this is the amount of volume buying and selling that occurs at any given price structure in the market. And what you'll notice is is that right around the 6900 level is a ton of volume. This is and this is all that cluster of support. Every time markets came down to that 68 6900 level, buyers were stepping in. That's why there's so much buying pressure at that level. Now you see where we're down here. There's not that many buyers or sellers. And so so buying is is a lot weaker here. Sellers don't have any control here at this point. Um so any rally back up into this this previous volume area is where now what we call trap longs. So everybody that was long buying at these levels are now at losses. And so when you get a rally back up these levels, this is going to be consistent resistance now for the next few weeks because every time you rally back up to those levels, everybody that was that's losing positions are going to say, "I'm out." Right. So they're trapped long, so they get out. >> Yeah. >> So we're going to have to get above all that level of resistance and then move back above probably towards 6,900ish, maybe 6,950 to really start getting the bull momentum back into the market. So, we have a good bit of work to do here, but markets are decently oversold on various levels and and ne sentiment is getting pretty negative here. So, again, I think we're getting up into a decent shape to where we're going to get a fairly strong all we need one piece of positive news. We get a fairly strong reflexive rally back up to where this 100 day moving average is, which now the 20-day is crossed below the 100 day. So, the 20-day moving average is now below the 50 and the 100. So, we've got some definite negative downward pressure on the market that's going to that's going to keep prices contained uh here for a while until we can start really building some momentum back into the market. So, you know, we we're in a good position for a rally maybe starting in the next week or so that goes through April and then we're going to get into summer, which is premidterm elections. I'd expect a lot more chop and volatility during the summer, get through till we get through the midterm elections and then a rally into year end. All right. Um, and so I think I did misremember. I think the uh the thing that Michael had said he'd really start to worry if we broke there through the 200 day moving average. >> Yeah. >> Um, >> and 200 day the 200 day is is crucially big support, right? That this is that red line. >> So this is a Fibonacci retracement level. Uh, so this is the November lows to the highs that we set u uh in in January. So this is just a Fibonacci retracement of that rally and we're currently approaching, you know, the one of the lower levels of that retracement, which is why we should start getting a bounce in here. Plus, that 200 day moving average is sitting right below it. So if that 200 day moving average is hold, we should get a nice reflexive rally up before we come back down to retest the 200 day moving average or start to establish higher lows, those type of things. But then the real challenge is, like I said, is going to be getting above these moving averages. >> Yeah. Okay. So, one of the questions I've been asking you and Michael and several others um is wh uh no. Yeah. Uh go just scroll go back >> a little bigger so that you can see it. Okay. >> Yeah. But no, no, no. You're going the other way. I want the timeline to be wider. >> Okay. Sorry. >> Um Okay. So, we've been talking about how since basically end of September, start of October, the market really hasn't gone anywhere, right? And the question has been, okay, so is this a consolidation before new highs or is this a topping out process? And you'd had those graphs that you'd shown in in past weeks where you had put the rounded top on there and said, look, don't don't don't read too much into it, but you know, we're going to find out whether this is a topping process or not. Obviously, the recent price action makes people think, this looks like it topped and it's now going over. But for you, my assumption is is all comes down to the 200 day moving average. If it if it if that is a support and it bounces, you'll be like, "No, we're we're still in the clear." But if it if it decisively breaks through that, are you going to then say, "Okay, look, the risk this was a topping process is now too too hard or or too high to ignore, and I got to start taking some more defensive actions in my portfolio allocation." >> No, no, no. We we were in a topping process. We have completed the topping process. We are now in a correction and we have already reduced exposure. we were near 70% equity exposure in our 60/40 model. We're now down below 60. So, we've already been cutting exposure to the portfolio over the last several weeks and and rebalancing within that portfolio over time and and to because that's kind of what all this market analysis was telling us and and that's one of the big drivers, you know, to be paying attention to is that we have broken that process. And this is, you know, really important. We go to look at hold on a second, let me just log in here real quick. And while you're pulling it up, let me just ask one question if you put in your answer, which is you just use the word correction, >> which is is, you know, kind of a it's a big word for a lot of people when it comes to the stock market. >> Um, we're only down what, 400 points from the uh from the all-time high. >> Yeah. >> So, it's not that much percentage- wise. So, just explain what you mean by correction there versus most people think, oh, that's a 20% drop in the market is a correction, right? >> Well, no. a 20% drop is is something more than a correction, but you know, just a correction in price, right? So, it's just you're having a So, if you want to put a milder term on it, we're having a pullback. >> Pull. Okay. Okay. Good. I just wanted to box it for folks so we didn't freak anybody out. Yeah. >> But, but again, you know, so this so we started so this this um is basically our portfolio performance for our 6040 model uh over the last several months. And you know, we're right now our portfolio is very slight. is the our portfolio is the green line. Uh the S&P 500's the blue line and and basically there's been very little we've been pulling back exposure which has given us big this big gap over the S&P is because we've been reducing that exposure to the markets over the last few weeks. So we weren't waiting for the correction or the pullback to occur to start taking action. We've been taking that action for the last few weeks. Now we still have again we still have decent exposure. We're still running roughly about uh 57% exposure. So, we've reduced exposure by 13 almost 14%. But we're we're still holding a healthy balance of of holdings. And so, if we start if we start taking out the 200 day moving average, etc., then we'll start reducing that even more. But most likely, as I said, we're going to get a rally first. And on that rally, that's where you want to start taking exposure off the table. Don't that you don't you don't want to be selling off your exposure here because the markets are deeply oversold on multiple levels. And and so you want to be aware of that that you're going to get a bounce here of some sort. You've been down four days in a row now. So you're going to get a bounce. Reduce your risk into that rally. So reduce your equity exposure on rallies. Don't sell. Don't panic. Sell near lows. >> Okay. So interesting. Okay. So this thing goes down. Let's say it hits the 200 day moving average. Um you you won't sell until then. If it bounces off the 200 day moving average, you will start selling more. um sort of selling into strength. Um that's again because I think you assumed there'll be at least a retest of the 200 day moving average after that bounce off of it. >> Um >> at what point would you start adding back in uh feeling like the coast was clear? Is that would that be after the second retest of the 200 day? >> No. So, well, either a you're going to you're going to bounce off the 200 day moving average, come back down and retest it or set a higher low and then turn up and you're going to start getting buy signals kind of across the board >> or you're going to bounce off the 200 day moving average and move back above all those the 50, the 20 and the and the 100 day moving average. You're clear all those resistance levels, >> maybe flop around a little bit there, turn on the buy signals kind of really across the board and then that's all that's also going to be your point to start increasing exposure. So you don't have to necessarily buy bottoms, but you want to buy you want to start buying when you start getting buy signals kind of all kicking in the same time. Right now you don't have those at the moment, but again things are getting so negative in terms of sentiment >> that you're getting very close to at least a near-term bounce and again that I would use to reduce risk into. >> Okay. And I want to keep talking about the the the good scenario here, but again, just on the other side, >> if we if we punch down through the uh 200 day moving average and it does not prove to be support, you mentioned you you'd continue to sell there. Just talk about that environment real quickly. And I know you can't talk specifically until you're actually in it, but but how how much would you sell? a little you would you reduce your exposure a little or is that a big enough line in the sand where you would say okay this is one where you know I know your portfolio you have those those quarterly ratchets right >> right >> yeah so that if we broke the 200 moving average um with some conviction yeah we would probably knock another 10% or 15% off the portfolio so I mean we'd probably make a fairly decent risk adjustment across the entire portfolio all at one time >> um but this was the article I wrote on March the 9th and this is where you and I were talking um that following Friday. This was that chart back then where we hadn't taken out those support levels yet. But >> hey, you said March the 9th. That was three days ago. >> Oh yeah, this was Monday's article. Sorry, this this is the one I wrote. Oh, sorry. This is the one I wrote over the weekend. I apologize. I forgot when I was here last with you. >> U so yeah, so on Monday I wrote this article um which is >> kind of going through exactly what we're talking about is this kind of technical management profile. So, we've taken out this 100 day moving average and you and completed this kind of topping process and I laid out kind of all these these kind of support levels for the markets and these are the things that we're working through right now technically within the portfolio so that as we start looking at these and again now you know we're we're through all those three kind of primary moving averages. We're now down to final defense which is to watch that very closely. But again, as we start to see these breakdowns as I was going through a second ago, the you know, we're still okay. We're still in an uptrend. We haven't violated the 200 day moving average. The markets are still trending positively. There's certainly some weakness here, but this was what we laid out with the South Park market view back in January saying, "Hey, look, you know, you're going to have some corrections along the way this year. It's not going to be a year like last year where the markets just kind of keep going up. You're going to have these corrections, this kind of increase in volatility." And so that's what we're seeing right now. markets are very are behaving very well despite what's going on in Iran, despite what's going on with private credit. The markets are actually holding up really really well. So you have to give some acknowledgement to the strength of the market because it is looking through the market is pricing in what's happening in Iran. The market's pricing in what's happening with private credit. And so while there's, you know, lots of headlines and things like, "Oh, private credit's blowing up everywhere." The market knows this and the market's pricing this all in. That's why the market's down a bit, right? The market is repricing in earnings expectations and risk right now, but it's not being down 10, 15, 20% over the course of a couple of weeks saying, "Hey, this is a real issue." The markets are saying, "Hey, this is an issue. It's going to have an impact." But overall, the markets are pricing through this pretty quickly. that's not going to last forever. The markets are going to price all this stuff in and then start to rebase itself and then start looking forward again. >> Okay. So, let me um let me ask you this. So, in our um recent talks, you've been um and this was pre-Iran war or Iran conflict. Um you were saying uh uh you know, we've had the rotation from growth to value. Um, a lot of value is now hard to call value because the the multiples have been expanded so much and uh some of what was in growth was really looking pretty abnormally oversold and and specifically you were talking about the software players. Um, and of course one of the the sentiment driving that was look it's an AI world and AI is going to you know basically replace the software that a lot of these big companies have built their their businesses around. It's going to drain their moes. Um, and you know, we've already had the conversation where you've said, "Look, that's probably overblown, especially in a lot of these big names, and that this may be a good time to start adding some exposure to those that sector while it's so depressed. Now, the conflict has only brought the markets down even more. Um, therefore making something that was perhaps oversold, even more oversold now. So, do you do you still see them as attractive and and is this a good time to start moving capital there or given what we just talked about the concerns that hey, we don't know if this market could actually turn down even further. Would you wait before moving capital into that space? >> Yeah. Well, you know, those stocks. So, yeah, we already did. Um, we bought very small. I'm sure Mike talked to you about Did y'all Did y'all go through trades last Friday? >> We did. We did. and and you had actually flagged that you planned to do those trades when you talked two weeks ago and then Mike confirmed that you did them a week ago. >> So yeah, we added a small starter position and CRM and Service Now and those have actually been holding up very well relative to the markets. I mean they're under a little bit of pressure and I'm hoping they're going to pull back here a little bit more and they have been over the last couple days which is good >> because you want to buy more presently. >> Yeah, I want to buy more, right? I want to get them up to I want to get them up to target weights. Uh so you know again those that's not you know when things get beaten up really bad um they don't go straight back up. They're going to have to turn around for a while you're going to have to be patient with a software trade. But you if you're buying companies based on kind of future values, future earnings, future prospects, some of these companies are really really cheap. And and but again, you're going to you're it may be dead money for 6 months or eight months or a year before they start to work again because whenever something goes through a really big corrective cycle like these have, it's unless there's just complete change of narrative overnight, everybody goes, "Oh man, we were completely wrong." Um you know, this is going to take a while for it to work out. So again, you have to buy it. buy it on dips, kind of wade through it a bit, and then allow it give it you got to give it time to work. These are investments, not trades. So, these are things that that we're potentially going to wind up holding for, you know, two, three, four, five years, um, eventually. >> So, so for the individual DIY investor who's watching this right now, and of course, this isn't personal finance financial advice for them, but if they're looking at the space thinking, oh, you know what, Atlanta's thesis, I'm I'm bought into it now. um if if they were to think about starting to create some entry positions right now, would you counsel, you know what, wait a little bit and let's see what happens with the 200 DMA here before you do that or would you just say, look, if this is a long-term position for you or or you know, medium-term position for you, just start nibbling now. >> Well, again, this this is when it comes down to managing money in a portfolio, you have to really understand your personal mentality, right? For me, I'm unemotional. So, I'm buying a stock that I don't care if it goes down 10 15% from here. It's not going to bother me. I know what I'm buying into. I know why I'm buying it. And I know what my duration is. So, I mean, I'm looking out three, five, seven, 10 years for these companies. And that's what our views are. But if you're the type of person that if you buy something, it goes down, you're immediately panicking, don't buy software stocks. Just leave them alone. wait for the whole bottom to occur. You're going to miss the bottom by a large margin. These stocks going to be up 20 30% off the loads and you'll still be able to buy them and make money with them. But if you have a really short mentality or really short fuse on losses, don't buy software stocks. >> Okay. Um All right. And I'm going to share something that's a little bit embarrassing. Um, but this um theme of software stocks being really, you know, uh, undervalued right now or overly beaten down has just been coming up in like every interview I've been doing in the past two weeks. So, the other day in between interviews, I only had a minute or two. Um, I was like, you know, I'm going to add some exposure. And so, I just quickly, you know, went to Yahoo Finance and just put in, you know, I'm looking for a software stock. And um there was an iShares one and I just bought it. This software software and security index or something like that, right? >> IGV. >> No. Um uh nobody should go do what I just did here, but I think it's um XSSW is is what I bought. Um and then I looked at it a couple days later and said, "Okay, what did I like like let me let me research this a little bit. Let me do my research now." Right? And I looked at it and like none of the positions were the positions that I thought it was going to have, >> right? >> Um, you know, I was looking for sort of the Adobe's and Oracles and, you know, stuff of the world. >> I don't know this ETF. It's the State Street Spider S&P software and services ETF. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. It's it's I I don't even know these companies. Adella Circle. I know one string clear secure Ring Central A10. >> Yeah. like like Ring Central which is like a tiny I mean it's it's it's not an oracle right >> pardon me >> the one you won is IGV Indigo George Victor >> All right well thank you so anyways I then pivoted out and said and you know found a different ETF that had more of what I wanted in there um but the point is folks obviously is know what you own you know and and you know a lot of times the the the names of these ETFs you know can be a little deceptive so don't Don't don't be so trusting. Now, I I knew I was taking a risk when I just sort of fired that bullet on the fly, but I was personally embarrassed and I was like, "Oh my god, this thing that I always advise people to do. I didn't do it and me to pivot." Trust me, some of the greatest things I've seen, you know, especially with retail traders, is, you know, there'll be some private company that's doing something. And so people will run out and they'll buy a publicly traded company that has a symbol that looks like that private company, thinking that's the company >> and they run this stock up that has nothing to do with anything, >> but but >> we we've talked about that on the show in the past. I'm trying to remember some of the companies, but yeah, they're kind of like really near names, right? oftentimes in a totally different industry. And anyways, folks, too, just real clear, I'm not slamming that first ETF that I mentioned. It just didn't have in it what I assumed it had in it when I bought it. Yeah. >> Yeah. No, that's right. That's right. >> Okay. So, um All right. So, we've talked Oh, real quick. Um so uh obviously a big threat of the the Iran conflict is that it goes on for longer than folks would like and that the um oil prices uh remain elevated for a lot longer than they would like. Um we just got news really over the past 2 days um that uh a number a coalition of nations are going to be releasing oil from their strategic petroleum reserves and President Trump just announced that he will be releasing I think 172 million barrels from the US uh reserve. I think I think all in all it's around 400 million barrels that's that's being discussed here. Um what impact what relief if any do you expect that to provide to oil prices? No, nothing. >> Yeah, >> it's just optical. >> Well, you know, we saw this during the Biden administration, remember? um gasoline prices were spiking during the shutdown and so we were draining the the SPR to try to bring gas prices down >> and it made almost no difference in >> price. It's just those those m those uh operations I'm trying to find the right word but those actions they have very little impact on because look markets trade on futures contracts right it's just speculators so whether it's gold or whether it's silver or oil or wheat or lumber or whatever the these are just futures contracts so these are people in the futures markets saying, "I think the price of the of X, Y, or Z is going to be this in the future." And so they start buying that contract. And so there's a buyer and a seller on those contracts on both sides. And so the more demand you have for a contract, I think gold's going to go to 5,000. Okay, great. So there's a bunch of 5,000 contracts out there. So everybody's buying those. That moves the price of the commodity up because that's what the futures are doing. So prices of all commodities are based on the futures contract, >> not on the actual supply and demand. So when you when you open up the reserves, oh great, let's go take 80 million barrels of oil and and throw it onto the market. Well, that's today and the markets immediately know that that's going to get absorbed in 5 days or 10 days or whatever the number is and then you're back to square one. But the future markets are still looking out going this problem if it exists longer is like poly market, right? Everybody's saying, I think the price of oil is going to be this in the future. And that's what sets the oil price. So that's why these these actions have no impact because the markets see right through them and they're still pricing out on on what they think the futures contract is going to be. And then of course you have a whole bunch of people purely just speculating on the price. So when you have a lot of demand for for oil contracts to buy the sellers of those contracts because again you have to have a buyer and a seller. >> Yeah. sellers of those contracts demand higher prices and so that continues to push the oil price higher >> or any commodity wheat, sugar, cocoa, gold, silver, doesn't matter. >> Okay. So again, folks, as investors take these um strategic reserve releases with a big grain of salt and and look at them as mostly optical things. Is things going to really impact the price? >> So this is a this is in the newsletter this weekend. Um, but I've I've laid out kind of kind of three scenarios for the markets and this is what we're working through right now is kind of these three scenarios. How long does this actually take and what's the impact to markets GDP, etc. >> Oh, this is awesome. This is what everybody wants to see. >> Yeah. So, it's in the newsletter this weekend. So, if you want to read it, it'll be in the newsletter. >> Okay. I I'll actually tweet this image out too once the newsletter is out because I think this is kind of what these answers a lot of the questions that folks have, right? So, Okay. Um, there you go. Okay. So, real quick, um, so oil is trading around 100 bucks a barrel the time we're talking here, Lance. Um, what impact is this having on the oil and gas sector, uh, stock market wise? Is this actually beneficial for those companies? >> Well, you would think so, right? Um, but the interesting problem is is that all these energy companies ran up in price because of the reflation trade. remember we're talking about a few minutes ago. So back in January and really in December, January and February, everybody was running the price of Exxon Mobile up through the roof as an example. >> And I've showed you the chart before where there was this that oil prices in energy stock. So if you take XLE and overlay it on top of the the West Texas Intermediate crude price, they are historically very highly correlated, which makes complete sense because the revenues of Exon Mobile come from the price of oil. However, over the course of the last several months, really December, January, February, there was this kind of retail trade to buy energy staples, utilities, and we just drove the prices of energy stocks well above the underlying commodity. So what's happened is is that since the oil price has spiked up, the the price of oil has spiked up, but that's really only counterbalancing the forward valuation of of Exxon Mobile as an example, which got really overvalued in January and February. So Exxon Mobile hasn't gone anywhere really since midFebruary despite the spike of oil prices. >> Interesting. >> Show you a chart. I'll just >> Well, it's interesting. Well, no. I mean, you were telling us every week for the past two months that uh that the you know for the oil sector um it had you know gotten dramatically overbought in the near term. Um and I guess essentially this is sort of proof of it which is that hey you know a 30% increase in the price of oil has had kind of no impact on prices because they had they're burning off their overval their overbought nature. Right. which was really it's quite fascinating that again that big run up in energy stocks the beginning of this year you know we were all kind of sitting around our office going this doesn't make a whole lot of sense but okay it is what it is >> okay so this is a little hard to do because we're trying to prove a negative um but had the conflict not happened and oil hadn't spiked to a 100 bucks a barrel would you have guessed that that oil would have sold off it would have had a big sell-off moment at some point because it had gotten overbought. >> Yeah. Yeah. No, there there there was it was going to correct. They uh Exon Mobile energy stocks in general had gotten extremely ahead of their underlying valuation. So, they were going to correct at some point. It was just a function of time. It kind of gotten into a bit of the meme trade. We had a lot of retail traders kind of chasing that trade, buying oil ETFs, etc. So, you just had a big surge of of push into those com. And again, the energy sector makes up 3% of the S&P 500. So when you have a lot of investors buying ETFs, it's a very small market. I mean, Exxon Mobile has a market cap of 643 billion. I mean, it's, you know, doesn't take a lot to move that stock. >> It's amazing where that used to be the big kahuna and now it's tiny compared to the big AI hyperscalers. Right. >> Exactly. So, but again, you know, when you have 3% of a sector in the ETF, it it's it's it's easier to move. And so, we saw a lot of that momentum chase um in January, February. So, that was eventually going to correct. It was just a function of time. Um what the only thing keeping it from happening now is that oil prices have come up. But if oil prices correct fairly significantly at some point, that correction in energy stocks is going to happen. >> Well, so that was my follow-up question here. So, let's assume your most likely scenario happens. this war ends within 30 days. Um I was going to ask would you then expect oil to sell off as the sorry oil sector to sell off as the price comes down or would it be another sort of jiu-jitsu where like okay it's burned off the overbought nature and now the reflation trade is kind of offsetting the the decrease in uh oil prices. But sounds like no. Sounds like you would expect the sector to sell off >> again. you're you're you're playing with a little bit of market dynamics and market psychology again a bit >> but in in kind of what you would expect is we have a very sharp retraction oil prices that energy stocks are going to come under pressure if that occurs now they'll stabilize at some point so for instance if you're looking at Exon Mobile trading around $154 a share potentially it trades back to 125ish >> so but that again that would just put it back into its normal kind of growth trend Okay. All right. Um Okay. Now, we're going to make our way to private credit, but I want to get there through the sovereign credit market for a moment. So, we've had this um you know, pretty big military uh conflict in the Middle East, right? US carpet bombing Iran. You know, it's pretty big deal. Historically, you would expect the the 10-year yield to go down as global investors had a flight to safety. >> No. >> No. You disagree with that presumption? >> Yeah. No. No. Historically, whenever you have a inflationary impulse and a jump in energy prices, yields rise. >> Okay. Uh, I mean, I love to have the data in front of me, which I don't, but um, is it is it safe to say that in most large conflicts, military conflicts, you usually see the the the 10-year yield go down, but in this case, you're saying because of the oil issue, it's inflationary, and that's winning out. >> Well, no. So, in most normal conflicts, you're going to see interest rates rise initially, right? Going back over time, there's just But what you also see along with that is you see a flight to the dollar. So you're going to see a big strong rally in the dollar. Interest rates come up a bit because there's concerns over a variety of things that occur because of the war, right? Slow down to the economy, a whole variety of other issues. So there's there's you'll get this bump in rates. Now also you and I were talking three or four weeks ago and yields gotten below 4%. And I said then I said, "Look, yields are are below 4%. We're very over very oversold on yields. We're going to get a reflex rally in yields back up to 4.2. All you need is a catalyst. Here you are, right? We're about 4.2. >> So y >> 4.3 on the day we're talking, but yeah. >> Sorry. Yeah. >> 4.3 on the day we're talking about. >> So So yeah, but but that that reversal in yield, all it needed was a catalyst and so a spike in oil prices which has an inflationary impulse into the economy. I mean immediately everybody goes, "This is going to push inflation back up to some degree." So you would expect yields to come up here a bit. Again, all you needed was the catalyst though. Yields were so over oversold um when you were below four that you were going to get a rally back in yields. >> Okay. I would I would just suggest and you obviously do what you want to do with your your uh your energies, but I would suggest this might be a good article for you to write since you write articles about absolutely everything, right? >> Um because this idea of war means lower uh treasury yields is something that I think most people watching this video I think they have that heruristic in their mind and a number of people I have talked to since the war I've interviewed since the war began have brought this up as an anomaly that surprised them. So sounds like you're saying hey it's not an anomaly if you look at the data it'd be great to actually see you know maybe a chart comparing previous outbreaks to see what happened to show that this is >> the norm not the anomaly. >> Yeah. Yeah. I can I can I can >> I think I think that would be very well read and and very folks would find it very interesting. Um but okay, so now let's move into the private credit side of things. So, um, you may remember two weeks ago I brought up, you know, some of the mounting issues that we were seeing in this space and I asked you, um, you know, what was your level of concern about private credit right now and, you know, how much smoke was there? And and if I'm remembering correctly, you said, "Hey, I I I I think that there's some real smoke there. We just, you know, we're not seeing enough yet to feel like we we can declare this as like a a big problem, but there's highly likely to be some bad things going on there. And it's just going to be a matter of waiting to see how bad whether it's going to be small, medium, or moderate. Sorry, small, moderate, or or severe. Um, since you and I talked, we've seen a number of more firms gating distributions. Um, even some really big Wall Street names like Morgan Stanley. Um, you probably know this better than I, Lance, but it it it seems like Blue, which has really been getting beaten up, um, is is perhaps now firesing some of their assets. I've I've I've seen that term mentioned in headlines. Um, JP Morgan has stopped basically lending to private credit firms. Um, so got a couple more questions around this, but I'll but I'll pause here. What is your current assessment of what's going on here? Um how mo, you know, mild to moderate to severe do you think it is? And and really at the end of the day, what type of risks does this pose to the folks that are saying, "Oh my god, this is the new subprime. This is the new thing that's going to take the whole system down with them. Um do you share those concerns or would this be more ring fenced if it got worse from here?" >> So very different than subprime to start with. So I just wrote an article today. I just published it this morning on private credit. um went through and did a whole bunch of a kind of a deep dive into you kind of the different aspects of what's happening with US private equity, private credit, what's kind of what's been going on uh kind of what the impacts are across the board. So this is a what we're going to talk about here is just I did a deeper dive into this and went like here's Black Rockck, here's Cliff Water, here's Morgan Stanley, here's JP Morgan Chase, what's been happening and this is ultimately who's going to get called, who's going to survive out of this. The so the mistake that people are making by going, "Oh, this is the next subprime crisis." is that you have to remember the subprime crisis wasn't just about subprime loans. The loans were there and the loans were bad, right? We were doing ninja loans, you know, no money down, no job, no income, no credit verification, whatever. But it wasn't just the loans. It was the fact that we were doing derivatives of derivatives of derivatives off those loans >> to the tunes of trillions of dollars. That was just just >> right. And we were packaging those loans in everything. So even AAA tunch had some of these crappy loans in it. Right. >> Exactly. That's not the case with what's happening on the private credit side. It's not. And and again when you know you think about a firm, just talk about Black Rockck as an example. So they gate a 20 billion fund as an example. This is a10 trillion dollar asset firm, right? This is a rounding error for them. The whole fund could go to zero >> and they're still at $9.8 trillion, right? So, you know, this is a very the the the size of this is certainly concerning, right? I mean, it's certainly going to impact investors, but this is on the private side of the market as well. So, the people that are going to lose money, these are private investors. They understood the risk going into it. This is why I've been a huge, you know, a huge push back against putting private equity, private credit. I've written multiple articles. >> Why am I so lucky? >> Don't you don't get into it. Don't don't buy it. Don't put it in 401k plans because you don't have this ability to a understand what your risk are and b go through the liquidity issues, right? Where you don't have liquidity. And so a lot of these investors just because the fund gated their investment, all that means is you can't get your money out. It doesn't mean the fund is failing, right? It just means you can't get your money out. The reason they gated the fund is so that you can't go force them to sell assets at a deep discount that would impair all the other investors. So, they're they're saying, "Look, give this time. Most of these loans will we think most this is what they're saying. We think most of these loans are going to be fine, but if we have everybody redeem all at once and we have to redeem all this money, we're going to destroy the underlying investment." >> Yeah. It's the run-of-the-m problem. So, just to be super clear, >> gating doesn't mean that that particular fund is is, you know, in danger of going to zero soon, >> right? >> But it also doesn't mean that it might not be, right? I mean, >> yeah, it could. Yeah. Sure. Absolutely. Um, you know, if they've got but again, this is this is what I what you and I have talked about earlier is that these funds were had so much money thrown at them over the last few years. There was just all this money coming into the markets from everywhere and people were like, "Oh, look, private credit." And I I can't tell you how many calls we got, how many, you know, inquiries we got. How do I get into private credit? How do I get in private credit? Well, when you have all that money flowing into it, and as we talked about before, there's only so many good deals, right? There's some really great private credit loans out there, right? They're fantastic. They are going to pay off. They're going to be great. But when you there's a whole lot of money, you've got to start coming down on your kind of your risk requirements going, "Okay, well, this loan's not perfect. It's okay. I'll do that loan. Well, this per this loan's not that great, but I need to do a loan, so I'll do that loan." And you kind of keep coming down in in these trenches and doing worse and worse deals until you get to this problem where you've got a fairly good amount of bad deals that are out there. And eventually when that happens, some of them are going to start blowing up. And that's what's happening here. But this is not going to transpire most likely into another subprime crisis event because most of the banks are pretty well shielded on this and this isn't going to create a counterparty trading risk like we saw during the subprime crisis. >> All right, Lance, I want to I want to dig into that. Um, real quick, I just want to try to clarify something you just said there. So um we've talked about this before uh more in the context of like private equity and even venture capital is um what tends to happen is uh you you have you know kind of a a hot sector right private private equity, venture capital, private uh private credit whatever and firms start chasing the opportunity there. And what what starts to happen as you said is um there's no sh like like the number of deals increase. Oh, there's there's players in the space who are willing to give me capital, right? Whether it's equity or whether it's it's debt. Um yeah, I'm going to I'm going to try to create a deal and try to get it funded, right? And the challenge is is as the number of deals increase, the number of good deals don't. Um, and so what tends to happen is is the the the the weight shoe firms, like the really the best of the best firms, they tend to get first review of all the deals and, you know, the like slam dunk, no-brainer. This deal is going to be a, you know, a 10bagger. They fund those and they generally lock those up. And so all the other deals then have to go to the next tier player, right? And if they get refused from there, they go to the next tier player. And there's all these firms that have, you know, entered the space or been created to be in this space. To your point, they they need to be doing these deals to be in business. So, they start making kind of worse and worse deals. They start lowering their standards because they're like, "Well, I if if if I'm a private credit lender, I got to lend, right?" And, you know, it all works while everyone's super excited about private equity or private credit or venture capital, whatever. But when the worm starts to turn and people realize that either the performance isn't there or you know some of these loans start going bad or whatever, you realize that kind of the old Warren Buffett thing of you find out who's swimming naked and you realize that a lot of these players were making a ton of of of loans or putting equity uh into companies that that probably had no business of doing so. And so there's a culling that goes on. This is sort of a it's almost a cyclical thing that happens in these sectors. And I did read your piece this morning, Lance, and it sounds like a lot of people in the private credit sector are saying this is a culling. Like like this is not just going to be a couple firms having some trouble. This is going to be a multi-year process of kind of the Darwinian process of just letting the the deadwood burn. And you know, you you have your little chart in there of who's going to survive and who's likely not to. And it seems like the black the black stones, the black rocks, like they're going to be just fine, right? But everybody increasingly below them, that's where you're going to start seeing the bodies start to flow to the surface. Correct. >> Absolutely. Well, and this is this is what we went back talked about previously about private equity is that when somebody comes to you and says, "Hey, Adam, I got this really great private equity investment for you, you know, that you need to get take advantage of." The first question is is why are you coming to me? Because if this is a really good deal, the Black Rocks, the Black Stones, the Sequoas, those p those big giant KKR, those big giant private equity firms, they're going to take it and fund it immediately because they want those types of deals. So, you know, this is so a lot of those private equity, private credit deals on that lower tier, they are going to go away and there's going to be a lot of retail investors unfortunately that got into these that are potentially going to lose some most or all of their money >> their money. Okay. So, >> or or worst case that's worst case, >> right? >> You may be locked up in these things for 10 or 20 years trying to get your money back. >> So, that's the other problem. >> Okay. Um, and that's obviously on the bad end of the scale. Um, now, uh, what I'm curious about is sort of the contagion here outside of just the private credit firms who made loans that they shouldn't have made, right? So, there's probably a fair amount of this the junk private credit in like pension funds, I'm guessing, on this one, but I imagine so. um uh you know uh you've been able to buy some of these private credit deals in the public markets. So like I reached out to Steven Bavaria who I've interviewed on this channel in the past um who's got his whole income factory you know framework and in there he would invest in BDC's right and he would invest in like the Apollo BDC ETF right and so I reached out to him and said hey you know what's what's going on and and and how's your you know portfolio fairing here and he said you know some of the names have have been hit pretty hard like the market value of these ETFs are down but he's in the larger eyes like you're talking about, Lance. Um, and uh, you know, he's he's saying, look, these things are still paying out. And that's the whole reason why he builds the income factory. He's almost sort of agnostic at what the market value of the portfolio is at any given time because what he cares about is how much income is it bringing in every month because that's what he's depending on it for. and he said actually in some ways you know this can be looked at as as sort of a positive where these managers of of these you know BDC funds um are they're still acquiring um and now they're and now they're acquiring at lower valuations and so if and when you know the um the sector heals you know you're kind of you're buying at value right now and and and you may get not just continued income going forward but you might actually get some nice appreciation in the long run from this obviously if that's going to happen, but there are a number of people that bought these funds publicly who are now looking at their portfolios going, "Oh my god, you know, this thing's just been whacked." Right? So, I don't know what what that impact is, but it's it's another potentially injured party. >> But then the third one, and I'm more interested about this one, >> is the banks. So, I mentioned that JP Morgan has stopped making um loans to private credit lenders. And look, JP Morgan, they're one of the behemoths. They're going to be fine probably no matter what happens. But I got to imagine that there's a lot of banks that have not made private credit loans themselves, but they have loaned to the private credit lenders. >> And what is their level of exposure? Do we have any idea around that? >> Not well, we'll we'll know when earning season comes around >> when they when they discuss their loan loss reserves. Um but, you know, look, JP Morgan's got exposure, Black Rockck's got exposure, and those stocks have come down. Um you know, we're looking for an opportunity. I mean, we're going to be buying Black Rockck and JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs on this dip, right? Because these these companies are not going to go away. And again, you know, take a look at, you know, talk about BDC's. One of one of my favorite BDCs is Main Street Capital. And yeah, it's had a decent correction here, and you go pull a 30-year history on it, you can't even see the blip, right? It's just it's just it's not even negl. It's negligible at best. But those are opportunities where you can start acquiring good companies at cheaper prices. You know, the the interesting thing, Adam, is is that we're supposed to be investors and we're looking for opportunities to buy capital or put capital to work at cheaper prices. But when things get cheaper, we keep coming up with all these reasons like, "Oh my gosh, this is the next crash. Everything's going to zero. I got to get out of the markets. Have you heard this headline?" And you know, generally those are are terrible things to trade off of. And it's more important to look at the fundamentals of these companies. are they earning money? What's their cash flow look like? What's their debt structures look like? And and and figure out what their total risk exposure is in this event relative to their total business. And when you start looking at companies like JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Black Rockck, Blackstone, it's a rounding error in a lot of cases. >> Okay. So, two questions on this. So, so one is um for the highly likely to survive cohort, right? Which we'll call the I'm trying to resist saying too big to fail, but it's you you know the names when I mention that, right? It's the names you've already been mentioning, the Black Rocks, the Blackstones, Apollos, etc. Um >> this may be a good opportunity to buy well-managed assets of theirs at attractive valuations, right? So to your point, this could actually be a an opportunity for the discerning investor in this space. Um, that's a plus. On the other side, what I'm still just not clear on, and maybe you aren't either, is just so forgetting the JP Morgans of the world, but going down to some sort of mid-tier banks or the thousands of of um regional banks in the US, you know, could this be a contagion risk where we're finding just like a lot of them were overexposed to commercial real estate, maybe a lot of them were lending to private lenders, uh and and that's going to come back to potentially seriously impair some cohort there. Well, yeah, there there's certainly going to be some fallout. But look, I mean, the commercial real estate is a great example. You know, go back four years ago and it was like, oh my gosh, we shut down the economy five years ago now. We shut down the economy. Nobody needs an office space anymore, right? And I told we had the conversation back then that I had gone to a a commercial real estate conference, you know, in Milwaukee right in the middle of that. And all these commercial real estate guys were buying buildings at 20 and 30 cents on the dollar so that JP Morgan is an example. They could get the building off their books and these private equity guys were buying these buildings at 20 cents on the dollar and Black Rockck was funding them all. So, you know, there was this, you know, everybody was ass like, oh, this is going to be devastation to the real estate market. It's going to collapse the markets and and didn't I mean, you you didn't even have a blip on the radar because of commercial real estate. Very likely, this is going to be very kin to that, which is it's going to make a lot of headlines, lots of thunder. It's it's great for it's great for videos and and for people to get clicks and views, but at the end of the day, this is not that big. It's a it's a it's a significant issue, but it's not the type of issue that's going to bring down markets. >> Okay. Um I put this note here and maybe it's not even super relevant, but um given the worries that we're seeing right now in private credit, is there any potential reason to map that to the margin debt situation and just think >> different leverage? It's different type of leverage, but does it does it make the margin debt leverage any more vulnerable if private credit starting to come down? >> As far as I'm aware, I can't buy a private credit fund on le on margin. >> Yeah. Um yeah. Uh okay. I like I said, it's probably pretty tangential. I just you you worry if you have two kind of danger environments, right? >> Well, no, let's that that's a different conversation. >> Yeah. Let's back up for a second. Is that is there leverage being used in the private credit market? Absolutely. Is there leverage being used in the stock market? Absolutely. Is there leverage being used by retail traders who are buying triple levered ETFs with options on margin in an account? Yes. You know those there is a lot of leverage in the market. So there is risk that if something occurs and again kind of go back to that table that I was showing earlier. this market drags out and we start to really crack serious support levels in the market that starts forcing margin calls. Now, you got a problem with leverage. >> Okay. But we're not seeing those signs yet. >> Not yet. >> Yeah. Okay. All right. Um, let me start wrapping up here. One last major topic. um we don't have to talk about it too much, but one of the things I'm finding myself talking with with folks on this channel about a lot recently is the jobs market and really trying to make sense of it. Um because there are definitely data sets you can look at and say, "Hey, this market is not looking very good." And we just, you know, the latest payroll numbers that came out a week ago were a massive surprise to the downside, right? This was the the negative 92,000 payroll report, right? Um, but then we got the ADP report after that. It was actually pretty good. And I know we've talked in the past that we like ADP more than we like payrolls because ADP is more, you know, tracking what actually happened versus a whole bunch of BLS, you know, >> BLSBS. >> BLSBS. Yeah. Um, so, uh, and you know, this is a BLS number, but like the, um, latest initial claims numbers look fine, right? Um, and I've se I've started to see articles to say that, hey, we're seeing some signs that the no higher, no fire economy is starting to become the someh higher, no fire economy. Um, so, you know, I'm seeing some analysts seeing green shoots. I'm seeing some still saying, you know, hey, and you just said yourself, you know, hey, the employment hasn't gone anywhere. And if you look at the consumer side, things are still looking like they're maybe the momentum's to the downside. From your perch right now, do you have any more insight into where you think employment is headed this year? >> Uh, I think I think employment is going to be fairly kind of just stagnant. Um, again, you know, we're one thing that we are seeing and you and I have talked about this before is that AI is costing some jobs already, right? We're seeing companies going, I don't need to hire as many people because I can do this job with AI or whatever it is, >> right? >> I think that may be more of the story this year is that it's not a a terrible employment economy, but it's not a fantastic one. It's just kind of >> kind of a, you know, kind of a muddle through economy this year, so to speak. more than anything else. >> Okay. But it's not a unemployment spiking, you know, the the job scenario falling off a cliff >> unless unless you know this we have oil prices above $100 a barrel for six months. >> Right. But that but that's a ch that it would be a change in the status quo. Right. So until the reflation trade is is officially killed, >> right? >> You're not worried about runaway unemployment. >> Correct. Not not right now. >> Yeah. >> Right. But again, everything's subject to change. >> Yeah. Yeah. Well, we'll we'll keep going on this, folks, but again, this is one where um you know, I was very bearish about where things were were headed unemployment wise. I've started getting a lot less bearish coming into this year. Um in fact, probably net bullish um you know, on on on taking the over on economic growth and like you Lance, I would normally say and I think that would mean actually the jobs market's going to firm up even further. But with the whole AI uncertainty here, you know, I'm not willing to say that. And that's I'm not taking the Iran conflict into account at all at this point in time. Right. >> Yeah. Yeah. No, I look I think AI has a definite impact. Um but like today, look, we saw Jolt's openings this morning. The job opening labor labor turnover survey. Job openings had a very big jump. They were like 6.9 million job openings. Now again, you got to take those with a grain of salt, right? But, you know, it does suggest that there are people out there at least, you know, trying to hire some workers. >> Well, and and and the administration's actually been pretty vocal about this recently. like there there are a lot of manufacturing data center, you know, let's build factory jobs out there right now. Um will that continue? Of course, that's the administration's plan, but you know, it's interesting like going back to the what's going on with Iran. Um uh it's so interesting all the different sort of unintended consequences here. So, you know, Iran tax everybody in the region and now all of a sudden all the Gulf, you know, states are now jumping, you know, wanting to jump on team US and Israel, which is kind of crazy. Now, you've got these Gulf countries that are now sort of aligning with Israel against Iran, which I don't think was on many people's dance card, you know, even just a year ago, even six months ago. Um, but one of the unintended consequences of that is now these countries have taken some damage um from Iranian ballistics and apparently are now telling the administration, "Yeah, you know, I told you I was going to give you a trillion dollars in capital this year to invest in your Well, that's going to I'm still good for it, but it's going to take a while now because I got to redirect those funds to rebuild here." So, it's going to be interesting to see, you know, if that impacts any of the the growth assumptions that the administration's been trying to sell us here. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. Great. >> Okay. Um, uh, let's see here. Um, trades. So, Michael went through your trades last week. Have you made any since or are you now just sort of letting what you did last week, right? >> We're just kind of sitting where we are for for this week. I mean, we have some other trades uh, kind of lined up here. And, you know, if we need to reduce exposure, our next move is not to buy. Our next move will be to sell exposure on a rally. So, we'll probably just go through most of the portfolio, trim off a quarter point here, a quarter point there, just kind of reduce that exposure as needed on a rally. Um, we really like our positioning setup in terms of we've got a nice split between value and growth and that's been helping the portfolio really kind of outperform the overall market. So, we don't need to make, you know, the balance is right. We just need to kind of tweak around the edges a bit. >> Okay. All right. and and I I did mean to congratulate you when you put up that chart earlier of your relative performance versus the S&P. So, congrats. I mean, as somebody who is is um putting his organization's brand at risk by saying, "Hey, I think Ria is good guys to work with, um it's always nice to see, you know, validation of that." >> Um not only that though, I like to we like to keep our clients, so it's important that we try to provide them good performance, >> right? And and again too, you know, you're nobody's always going to be beating the S&P, but what what matters more to me is less that you beat it when things are great. It matters to me a lot more when when the S&P is struggling that you're not struggling as much as it. So >> that's that's our philosophy is 8020, which is 80% of the upside, 20% of the downside. So that's what we try to work to. >> Right. All right. Well, anyways, congratulations on how this year has begun for you. Um all right, so we'll get to a quick rant and then we'll we'll head up. Um, we'll head out. Uh, so I've got an interview coming out tomorrow that I think a lot of people are going to find really interesting. It's one of the more interesting ones I've recorded this year. Um, it's with a guy named Peter Alexander who is a China analyst that Luke Groman put me in touch with and uh, Luke proactively reached out to me after I had got to meet him in person um, down at Stephanie Pomboy's uh, Florida conference and just said, "Hey, Adam, this guy like I talk about China a lot. It's a it's it's a big part of my overall global macro view. And the guy that I get all my China insights from is this guy, Peter Alexander. He doesn't do too many of these interviews, but I think he'd be a great guy for you to talk with. So, reached out to Peter. We hit it off. Turns out we're we're both uh guys from the same age. He grew up in Connecticut, so a lot of similarities there. Um but he's much smarter than I. And he's been living in China for 30 years. So, you know, a lot of the folks that I talk with about China on this channel, you know, kind of study it, but they study it from afar. Peter's been inside it for the past three decades. Um, and uh just a really great deep dive into how China works, you know, what China uh what its likely um ambitions are. And in many ways, this may actually surprise a lot of Westerners, you know. So, a big part of the discussion was sort of like what do Westerners have right about China? what do westerners have wrong about China? Um, and uh, I think it's a very important but very fascinating discussion and I highly recommend that everybody watch it. It's going to come out the day after this video airs. Um, but one of the questions that I asked him was um, because I I've I I went to a tiny little coastal slice of China back in the mid 90s. So, I haven't been to China myself in in many many decades. Um, but a lot of the people that I talk to who go there, you know, Westerners, they come back and they say like, "Oh my god, like coming back to an American airport or getting on like an American railway system after having been in China is like returning to a developing nation. Like they're just so far ahead of us in terms of the infrastructure they've built, its quality, how well it's maintained." And I asked him if that was true, and he said, "Yeah, it really largely is. It's one of the things that China's just really invested and done really well. They've they've obviously really invested in educating a whole bunch of engineers in their country and we've all seen the videos on um you know on social media where China decides it needs to build a bridge and you can watch that bridge get built in in you know fast motion where they build it over the course of like 72 hours right where in America you know it would take you seven years just to get the permitting approved right and it would come in way over time and way over budget. Um, so anyways, I I I I you should go watch that China video, folks, when it launches. Um, reason why I mentioned that specifically is because um, you know, someone living here in America, like I um, I think I mentioned to you, well, of course I mentioned to you, I moved from California to Nevada and you know, in my early days here in Nevada, I was driving around and I was like, you know, this like it's really wellmaintained. The roads are great. You know, the infrastructure here is is just fine, if not better than California. In fact, in many cases, it's better. And I thought about like, you know, California's justifications for why they needed to charge the highest state income tax in the nation. And it was always, well, we have to provide all these services to you, right? And I'm like, all right. Well, I'm over here in a 0% state income tax environment, and the services are plenty good, even better in a lot of cases. Um, so obviously it just belies the management of how we're choosing to manage. And you've heard the whole um phrase of of decline is a choice, right? And I think in a lot of ways um at the national and state level for too long America has been in certain areas choosing to decline and and hopefully we've got some momentum in trying to reverse some of that stuff now. Um but uh here's the rant. So um when I do these videos, Lance, um when I do my introductions or if I do a a a short explainer video, which I haven't done in way too long, um I use a teleprompter. And my teleprompter is just a uh an iPad um with a teleprompter app on it. And um uh I I bought an old iPad a few years ago and I' I've just been using it solely for that. I don't use it for anything else. Well, anyways, that just basically stopped functioning. Um the app um wasn't updating anymore. It wasn't pulling in the new documents that I was creating. And it took me a little while to figure out why. and um and basically it was because the um the the to to continue to work the app needed Apple's latest operating system. The problem was is the iPad was so old that it it couldn't accept uh the download of the new Apple operating system. Um and so basically it was a it was just a brick. I I now had to go out and and buy a new iPad. And of course this is important to my livelihood. So I was like, "All right, I'll go buy a new iPad." So, I went down to the Apple store and said, "Look, give me your cheapest iPad." Uh which they did, and it wasn't very cheap. Um, and uh I dec I told them, "Look, I'm only getting this thing for one app. So, do you mind if I sit here and and set it up and test it in the store before I leave to make sure that this is actually going to do what I needed to do?" And the guy said, "Yeah, fine. Go sit over there." So, I started going through the the like setup process for the iPad, which again, all I needed to do is just put one app on it. Well, I don't know, half an hour in, this thing is still hung up on this update thing it's supposed to do. And I called the guy over and he's like, "No, no, no. This this should just take a few more minutes. Just be patient." So, after like 45 minutes or so, I was like, "Dude, this is just not updating." And the guy was like, "Oh, yeah, I guess so. Well, let me let me go see what I can do. Maybe I'll get you a new iPad. Maybe something's wrong with this." He disappears and he comes back in a bit and he says, "Oh, the sales guy told me this is a known issue and we got to basically hook it up this way to make it work. Um, because if you try to do it the normal way, there's a server error and whatever." And I'm like, "Well, then why didn't the sales guy warn me about that when he sold me this iPad 45 minutes ago?" Like, if I had taken this home out of the box, I would have hit this exact same issue and I wouldn't have known what the hell to do with it, right? And it's not so much like a planned obsolescence thing. Although of course with our digital devices today that seems to be the you durugger which is they they intentionally build them to break down. But >> but whether it's deliberate or whether it's unintentional the fact that we just have these things that we depend on that just essentially stop working for us and then we have to go basically replace them way sooner than we would like to and then even then they don't necessarily work the way they're supposed to even on the the darn setup process. Um it it just got me really frustrated about this again kind of like um both planned obsolescence and also just sort of like the decline of service, right? The sales guy would sell me this thing that he knew had a problem with it, didn't bother to tell me about it and just sort of toss me over the wall after he took my money. It it's it's I I guess I'm just ranting. This is a true rant today, but like this seems to I mean I I feel like I could say this about, you know, some of the health services that I've received or, you know, products that I bought through Amazon or whatever. like it seems to be pretty pervasive. And so anyways, that's my rant. I'm sure you probably had similar things happen to you. >> Oh yeah. No, and look, I I think it comes down to the organization and how you motivate your salespeople. So like for instance, in in our company, we compensate our people very very well. We treat them well. And so we provide a very high level of service to all of our clients. High touch, high service. Um, good example. Yesterday, my wife's car is was on its last leg. And so, we went down to the the used car dealership to to buy a new car for to replace her car. And she found a car she wanted. And but, you know, it's like, I'm not sitting in a dealership for six hours to buy a car. It's just not happening. And I told the guy, I said, >> you know, I'll buy this car. I'm going to pay cash, but you know, I'm not sitting here for six hours. He's like, "Don't worry about it." He said, "Let me get just give me let me get some information from you." I says, "I'll prepare all the paperwork. I'll drive it to your house. I'll bring you the car and we'll sign the paperwork at your house." And I was like, "Cool." And that's what exactly what we did. >> That's pretty amazing. Yeah. >> Yeah. Yeah. But the whole point is is that that's the way, you know, it I think service really comes down to the person. And if somebody's really passionate about their job, they will provide good service. if they're just there to earn a paycheck, it's going to hap what happened to you is going to happen, right? It's just like, "Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. I'll sell it to you and here you go." And then not not really provide you any any service. But yeah, I I think it's just, you know, it's part of the culture problem. Um, you know, that's happened over the last really kind of 20 30 years is used to be, you know, when I was growing up, we were taught to provide good service, right? That was just if you're going to sell a product, you stand behind your product and you guarantee your product. That's just the way everybody was raised. And and today it's just not that way anymore. It's just like, oh yeah, yeah, here's my job and here here's your product. Go away. Don't bother me. >> So, so totally agree with that. Been a huge degradation in service in general. What what what I find somewhat shocking in this example is I think Apple is looked at as one of the highest touch services that are still out there, right? You go in there and everybody's got their blue shirt on and there's the Genius Bar and I mean they they they try to overtly, you know, show that, hey, we're taking customer service really seriously. And look folks, I've had good experiences in Apple stores, too. So, you know, part of this is just me being angry. But my point is to your point though, like this is our best and our best isn't all that great these days, right? Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Now, I mean, in your case, I get when you're buying a top-of-the-line Bentley, you're going to get, you know, >> Exactly. used, by the way. A used Bentley. Yeah. Right. Yeah. Right. But, you know, you know, with my 1976 pickup truck, you know, I don't have those problems. I just fix it myself. >> Well, exactly. I mean, look, that was an era where where you could fix your I mean, that that's that's I mean, it's almost unimaginable now to have a product that you can fix, right? So, so cars obviously have become so computerized. There's so many things in there that you really can't fix um with anymore. a battery car. It's not like you can get in there and tinker around with a battery, right? >> Um, and most consumer electronics these days, um, not only do not pe people not know how to fix them, but they've gotten to the point where, you know, if a two cent component uh, breaks in the thing, if you can find somebody to repair it, which is almost impossible, the repair job is going to cost a lot more than just going and buying a new >> Yeah. >> piece of crap one, right? And so we sort of have this Charles Hugh Smith calls it the landfill economy, but we've got this really frustrating Yeah. And and a big issue too and it's kind of tied to this is is shadow work which is like and my my example was kind of a good example of this is you know if you buy especially a new digital product like generally you've got a hour and sometimes more of setup process to do to get it to work and if it at any point in time if it stops working you're sent a bunch of FAQ stuff that you yourself have to go through. So they basically offloaded the IT service onto the consumer, right? Which is so frustrating when you don't want to have to be an IT expert and you just want the product you bought to work, right? >> No, no, no, no. That's that's a huge complaint. I used to buy Dell computers all the time for my business and used to be their service was really great and now you call them and it was like okay well you know you know you know uninstall everything on a computer reinstall everything and you have to go through all these jumps and hurdles before you can even get to a guy's okay I'll come out and look at your computer right it is you know it's just it's just environments have changed and again you know nobody's in America either everybody you talk to is in India somewhere >> well and that's if you can get somebody to talk to this drives drives me nuts, which is um you know when I was uh uh in business school, my summer job was being a consultant and uh you know we had to get company intelligence and so you would call companies and you would say hey can I talk to somebody in this department and then you would interview them about whatever right um it was back in the day when you get a live person on the phone I mean nowadays forget about trying to talk to a company but I mean I would challenge you to go to a company website and actually find a phone number and I'm talking about like Fortune 500 hund companies, right? Um I used to work at Yahoo for a long time and I remember, you know, years ago, seven, eight years ago, wanted to be like, "Oh, you know, let me call somebody at Yahoo and ask this question, right?" And I couldn't even the the people who the the the receptionists that used to sit in the lobby and answer phones, they don't exist anymore, right? So, you know, you have to kind of I don't know, you got to go to LinkedIn and and basically try to, you know, send a Hail Mary email to somebody to try to get somebody to respond, but you just you literally can't get people to talk. Even my local bank here, if I want to talk to a person, I have to get in the car and go down there. If I call the bank, I'm sitting in this endless phone tree that that ultimately drops me off at some automated answer at the end, you know, and you're like, "Oh my god, you guys have my money. You're telling me I can't actually talk to a live person there about it. So anyways, I'm sure we're probably getting a lot of um uh people who are uh similarly outraged with aspects of their life and folks if you do share share those in the comments. But anyways, you know, Lance, I do think that that may be a vector at which you know um future entrepreneurs will be able to um get uh competitive differentiation going forward. If you really laser in on service here, I think so much of the at least the the American um consumer audience is so tired of being treated like a second or third class citizen that even just a little bit of going above and beyond customer service-wise um may actually earn you some serious loyalty. >> No, that's that's why we spend so much time in our shop focusing on customer service. I mean it's it's a it is the number one priority in our shop which is customer service, customer outreach, customer contact, all those type of things because again especially when it comes to money, people want to know when something like this is happening that there's somebody paying attention to their money. >> Yeah. Yeah. Um and it's just amazing to me how many companies that do deal with your money make it impossible to talk to a live person. It just boggles the mind. >> Um all right. Well, look, if um if if uh the thing that gives you the biggest warm fuzzies uh as a consumer of service is watching Lance Roberts on this program week in and week out, please let them know that by hitting the like button and then clicking on the subscribe button below as well as that little bell icon right next to it. Um, if you would like to get some help in figuring out how to position your portfolio for a lot of the macro issues, uh, challenges and opportunities that Lance and I have talked about here, um, feel free to get them from one of the financial adviserss that Thoughtful Money endorses. These are the firms you see with me on this channel week in and week out. Perhaps you'd like to talk to Lance himself and the team there at RAIA who are totally excellent at client service. Um, to do that, just fill out the very short form at thoughtfulmoney.com. only takes you a couple seconds to fill out the form and the firms will be in touch with you forth with after you do that. Um, lastly, I just want to remind folks that the thoughtful money spring online conference is just a week away at this point. As I said at the beginning of this video, if you haven't bought your ticket yet, buy it right now while you can still get the last chance to save price discount because at midnight tomorrow night, Sunday night, price then jumps up to full price. Uh, to do that, just go to thoughtfulmoney.com/conference. And if you are a premium subscriber to our Substack, look in your email for the code I've sent you that you can use to get an additional $50 off of that price. Um, uh, as a reminder again, it's, uh, the conference is just a week away. It's going to be Saturday, March 21st. Don't worry if you can't watch live that day or can't watch the whole day because replay videos of the entire event, all the presentations, all the live Q&A will be sent to everybody who buys a ticket within just a couple hours of the event's conclusion. Um, real quick, I'll go through the the roster just to prove that it's one of the best you probably ever heard for a conference like this. It's Lacy Hunt, who will do his usual graduate level kickoff. Um, Ed Dow, Michael Oliver, uh, Matt Taibbe, the journalist. Um, Luke Roman, Brent Johnson, uh, Stephanie Pomboy, Grant Williams, Michael Oliver, Darius Dale, uh, Judy Shelton, Danielle D. Martino Booth, Rick Rule, Lynn Alden, uh, David Haye, Melody Wright, Andy Sheckchman, um, and then the, uh, financial advisory firms that you see with me on this channel as well. So, just a murderer's row of talent there. It's going to be an amazing day. It's going to be 11 hours of content. We try to really overd deliver value for the uh the low price of the conference and I really hope to see you all there. Lance, my friend, another great week. A lot of stuff going on in the world. Um kind of shudder a little bit to see what surprises might lie in store between this week and next week, but whatever they are, we'll talk about it here together. Thanks so much for making sense of everything for everybody. >> See you next week. >> All right, everybody else. Thanks so much for watching.

Will The Iran War Oil Price Shock Sink Stocks? | Lance Roberts

Summary

Transcript

Join for free and get access to the buyside

Get insights from the world's most influential hedge fund investors direct to your inbox

Follow Us On: