Will Trade War Go Nuclear? What's Next After Latest Escalations | Juan Cole
Summary
Middle East Conflict: The podcast discusses the ongoing conflict in Gaza, highlighting the fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hamas and the potential for renewed violence due to political dynamics within Israel.
US Involvement: The role of the United States in the conflict is examined, with emphasis on its influence over Israel and the implications of US military involvement in disarming groups like Hamas.
Oil Market Impact: The discussion touches on how Middle Eastern conflicts, particularly in Gaza, affect oil prices, noting that while the region is significant for oil, the Israel-Palestine conflict itself has limited direct impact on oil markets.
Global Superpower Dynamics: The podcast explores the geopolitical tensions between the US and China, suggesting a proxy war scenario and the potential for economic rather than military confrontation.
China's Economic Strategy: China's focus on green energy and electric vehicles is highlighted as a strategy to become a dominant global superpower, potentially leading to a decline in global oil demand.
Future of Global Power: Predictions are made about China's rise as a superpower due to its technological advancements and green energy initiatives, contrasting with the US's current policies that may hinder its scientific and technological progress.
Climate Change and Migration: The podcast anticipates significant global changes due to climate change, including mass migrations and the potential rise of countries like Canada as major players due to their favorable climates.
Transcript
the colonialism should have passed and people should have self-determination. Palestinians don't have it in fact and the United States is the main reason for which uh the Palestinians are suffering in this way. Benjamin Netanyahu and the extremists on his cabinet will find a way uh to go back to war and they they've done this before. Those gangs were Israeli backed uh and were seen by the Israelis as alternatives to Hamas. >> How do we how do we know this, Professor? We're talking about a potential peace in the Middle East with our next guest, Juan Cole. He is the professor of history at the University of Michigan and also the editor-inchief of informed comment. Will the ceasefire in Gaza last? We'll find out. Professor, welcome to the show. Good to see you. >> Likewise, David. >> Professor Cole, let's walk over or let's walk through rather what happened in the last week. There was a ceasefire brokered. uh both sides, Israel and Hamas agreed to exchange the bodies of hostages. Um what's happened up until now? Let's just give a recap to our audience, then we can discuss what may happen next. >> Sure. Well, uh this uh horrible situation in in uh Israel and Palestine has been going on now for 2 years uh with uh Israeli uh bombardment of uh of Gaza very intensively the destruction of uh over 80% of the uh of the buildings or the damage or destruction of 80% of the buildings uh and the damage to the infrastructure blockade paid since uh April on uh on food uh and and medical aid entering the the Gaza Strip uh and a great deal of suffering. The United Nations declared it a famine. Uh it also has been widely uh viewed as a genocide. uh and uh I think the US presidents could have stopped it at any moment because Israel is deeply dependent on the United States for resupply of ammunitions and munitions. Uh and the US was uh in essence a silent partner in this uh war. Uh and um uh for reasons that are of course a little murky because they're private. uh the Trump uh and his close uh associates uh decided that the time had come to to end this thing. Uh I think it could have been ended long before uh I think um you you had an opportunity in the Biden administration a year ago uh to end it. Uh I I personally think that the obstacle to ending it had been uh Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the extremists on his cabinet uh who uh hadn't achieved their maximalist goals. Netanyahu himself, I think, is a little afraid of going out of office and going to jail. He's under indictment for corruption. uh and the war was one way to keep himself uh uh in the catbird seat. Uh but for various reasons, Trump grew dissatisfied with uh with this situation with Netanyahu dragging his feet all the time. He's he's alleged to have said, "I don't know why you're negative. This is a this peace deal is a win for you. Take it." Let's take a look at uh or listen to what Trump has said in a um a press briefing on this subject and we'll respond together. Take a listen, professor. >> How long will it take Hamas to disarm? And can you guarantee that is going to happen? >> Well, they're going to disarm. Uh and because they said they were going to disarm and if they don't disarm, we will disarm them. >> How will you do that? >> I don't have to explain that to you, but if they don't disarm, we will disarm them. They know I'm not playing games. Okay. Now, we did something monumental. We got the hostages back. That was the first thing we had to do above all else. Get the hostages back. Now, they misrepresented because we were told they had 26, 24 of dead hostages, if we can use those terms. And it seems as though they don't have that because we're talking about a much lesser number. But that's a very tough subject. I want them back. That's what they said. I want them back. Uh, also they said they were going to disarm. Uh, and initially speaking, they needed, you know, they did take out a couple of gangs that were very bad, very, very bad gangs. And they did take them out and they killed a number of gang members and that didn't bother me much to be honest with you. That's okay. We had a couple of very bad gangs. You know, it's no different than other countries like Venezuela sent. >> Okay. And then he's talking about other things. So, let's just unpack what he said there. If Hamas doesn't disarm, we'll disarm for them. Is it truly the role of the US military to be disarming combating groups in the Middle East though right now is the bigger question. >> Well, there were many rep misrepresentations and what Trump said uh and and some puzzles. Uh Hamas actually, to my knowledge, has not agreed to disarm. what they agreed to was that they would not be uh the government of Gaza going forward and they would not be in the government of Gaza going forward. So, they're accepting uh stepping down from a rulership role. Uh but their spokespeople have repeatedly said they wouldn't disarm. uh they they have come into conflict as the Israeli troops have withdrawn from uh about 45% of Gaza. They've come into conflict with gangs that had formed which were preying on people. Uh those gangs were Israeli backed uh and were seen by the Israelis as alternatives to Hamas. >> How do we how do we know this, Professor? >> Oh, it's been widely reported. I mean, there there isn't any question about it. Uh, and and that that Trump approves of Hamas destroying these Israeli backed gangs is is is odd. I mean, certainly not what what the Israeli cabinet would would have said about it. Um, but the the US doesn't have troops in Gaza. It it's not going to have troops in Gaza in my view, and it's not in a position to disarm anybody in in Gaza. and Gaza is in chaos. When when when a government and a military has been made to collapse, as we saw in Iraq in in earlier in this century, the country falls into chaos. Even in Iraq, we had 170,000 US troops and they still couldn't disarm people. Uh so the this this kind of posturing that Trump does that he's in control and he'll make things happen. I mean, the reporter was quite right to ask him, you know, how are you going to do that? And and he he refused he refused to answer the question because there isn't an answer. >> Okay. Uh it seems like maybe you're referring to uh this story here and as some others reported Israel confirms its arming Hamas rivals in operation opposing opposition calls complete madness and also reported by Al Jazzer that in is in in June apparently Israeli officials admitted to arming gangs in Gaza some of which have a ties which have ties to ISIS in an effort to destabilize Hamas. Now, right now, you know, regardless of who's arming these groups, Trump wants an end to this violence, and he's even wrote he he wrote on Truth Social that if this violence doesn't end, if Hamas continues to kill people in Gaza, which was not the deal, we will have no choice but to go in and kill them. Thank you for your attention to this matter. Uh what what do you make of that statement? Well, aside from uh bombarding them, which you know hasn't worked for the Israelis for two years, there isn't anything that Trump can do about Hamas. But the real question is, David, who who is going to succeed Hamas in governing the Gaza Strip? Because that new authority, if it's established, would be the authority that could hope to, you know, provide some security and and have people uh disarm. Uh and and we don't know the answer to this question. Uh it's um uh been bruted that uh former British Prime Minister Tony Blair will head an administration of the of the Gaza Strip. Uh some people have uh argued that it should be the Palestine Liberation Organization which runs the West Bank. Uh instead uh there's talk of an Arab force. uh uh Turkey has volunteered to send in forces. Uh but those discussions are wide-ranging and uh in Kuwait and and without uh specific issue as as you know as we now speak. So we don't know what the future of Gaza is going to be and the future of the administration of Gaza is going to determine the security situation. >> What needs to happen to maintain peace in the region in that particular region? Oh, the Palestinians need to have a state. All of these conflicts that we see in the Levant are about Palestinian statelessness. People in the West don't understand what's going on there and they don't understand that the Palestinians are under Israeli military occupation. Uh and um nobody in in North America would put up with that. I mean, if you had some foreign country running, you know, a province or a state in North in North America, people would pick up guns and fight it off. Uh, and this is this is not going to stop until the Palestinians have the dignity of citizenship, access to courts that can guarantee their rights and then their their property. Palestinians don't even know what they own because the Israelis can steal it from them at any moment. Before we jump back into the video, let's talk about something most people ignore. Online privacy. Now, your personal information isn't just sitting on your phone or email. It's being scraped, bought, and sold by data broker websites every day without your permission. Our sponsor today, Delete Me, helps you take that control back. They scan the internet for your exposed information, send you regular privacy reports, and remove your data from hundreds of broker sites so it can't be used against you. Take mine for example. In the latest report, they reviewed over 325 listings to see if any data of brokers had my personal information, and they continue to check every week to ensure that it stays off. Go to joindeleteme.com/davidlin and use the promo code davidin at checkout link down below or scan the QR code here on the screen and you'll get 20% off of all US plans. Take control of your privacy today before somebody else does. Palestinians are recognized as a state by I believe 157 countries around the world already. Professor, so if I were just to take the opposite side of this discussion, I would say it's not the recognition that that ends. Clearly, they're recognized by the majority of the world. It's a matter of practice. What impractice needs to happen for conflict and violence to end? >> Well, th those recognitions are proforma. They're they're just on paper. The the fact is, you know, if you lived in in in West Bank or or Gaza, which are the Palestinian territories with Palestinian majorities, there are five or six million people living there, the the um uh the you're in your everyday life, it's the Israeli military who tells you what to do. Uh there's Israeli troops patrolling. In fact, there are Israeli squatters who came over from Israel, stole Palestinian land, made settlements on them, and then send out militias to attack neighboring Palestinian villages every day, often with the comp with the complicity of the Israeli military. So there there isn't a state. If you're a Palestinian and and and an Israeli settler attacks you, to to which Palestinian court could you go for for relief? There isn't one. uh and about 40% of the West Bank uh is is such that the PLO uh has police uh but they're essentially forced to be in handinand glove with the Israeli military. So there isn't any Palestinian state. Uh it it's a it's an occupation regime. Uh it's not any different from uh British India where there was no no Indian government. It was the British that ran India for for 200 years. uh it's a colonial situation and uh this the world agrees that this should not be that that the colonialism should have passed and people should have self-determination. The Palestinians don't have it in fact and the United States is the main reason for which uh the Palestinians are suffering in this way. So you asked me you know what would make for peace in the in the region. We keep seeing these outbreaks of of of war um over the Palestine issue because it's unresolved. Uh if Mr. Trump really wanted to be a tough guy and and intervene to make a historic uh uh settlement, he could. Uh but that's what you in my view what needs to happen is there needs to be a Palestinian state. >> All right. And then the other side of the coin here, what would happen to sabotage uh this peace deal? So this article, for example, highlight highlights some potential scenarios, worst case scenarios that could end uh the Gaza peace deal. Uh I'll sum it up here for the audience and yourself. Hamas seeks to retain underground command structures, avoid disarmament. Number two, Israeli far-right working to block Palestinian uh statethood. Um and then number three, Iran is attempting to maintain regional deterrence by rearming proxy forces like Hezbollah. Um I'll let you comment on those points, perhaps some other thoughts of your own. What could end this peace deal? >> Well, I mean, the peace deal is so open-ended that virtually anything could end it. uh there there's no there's no practical uh structure for ongoing peace uh at the moment. We we just we've had an Israeli withdrawal from uh less than half of the Gaza Strip uh which has left chaos in its wake as as might be expected. There's been nothing to replace it. Uh and uh of course I mean to the extent that Hamas still exists and remember it's been reduced to a tiny shadow of its former self I don't think it can assert itself to take back over Gaza nor do I think its leaders would want to do that. Um so you know yes all of those spoilers are possibilities. The main one in my view is that Benjamin Netanyahu and the extremists on his cabinet will find a way uh to go back to war. And they they've done this before. There was a an ar there there was a um a pause in the fighting and uh in in January and February and in March Netanyahu just pulled out the stops and went back to war and and imposed a food blockade on the Gaza Strip. So, um, uh, you know, there are people in the Israeli cabinet who would very much like to spoil this deal and and they have the power. Hamas is is is a is a non- entity at the moment. Hezbollah is much weakened. Iran is much weakened. I don't think that they're the main players here. I think it's the Israelis. So, if the Israeli government uh wanted to have some kind of accommodation to the Palestinians, then then you could have some hope. But there's no sign uh that that's the way they think. >> This is a chart of the oil price and um I think investors and participants in the oil market would like to know from you professor how fragile generally speaking is this deal because what we saw happened on the 10th of October was oil dropped about 3% on the on the news and it's continuing to drop. So I think the market's pricing in that no escalation is going to happen yet. Now, this could all change overnight. So, in your calculation of probabilities here, how likely is it that we can get this reversal? In other words, um complete end to the deal back to violence and then perhaps even escalation and then oil will go back up. Well, I think there's a 50/50 chance that the immediate fighting in Gaza has has come to a close. In my experience, people fight for as long as they think that the continued fighting might give them some advantage. I I I suspect that both sides have reached the point where they see that there isn't a continued advantage uh in the fighting. Uh the the kinds of things that would affect the oil markets are that uh you know the uh the Houthis in North Yemen have been uh bombarding uh uh tankers and uh uh and container ships plying the Red Sea going up and down from the Suez Canal. Uh they the Houthies have been pretty they're they're wild men, but they they've been uh they've been men of their word to some extent that they won't do that if if this if the Israelis stop attacking Gaza and they didn't in January and February when there was a temporary pause in the fighting. So uh that would be good news for for the uh for the oil markets and for shipping in general because uh there are six big containers ship companies and then you have uh some oil going through the Suez Canal uh some oil tankers uh and all a lot of those have had to find alternative routes uh around the Cape of Good Hope for instance. uh it has added expense uh to to shipping um uh especially from from Asia uh back and forth. So um uh should should this piece hold and I I say 50/50 uh it will uh that uh Suez Canal Red Sea shipping lane uh blockade of the of the Houthies should should subside. Uh and uh so that would be good that would be good news for for the oil markets and and and for for the container ships as well. Uh the um uh the other things that are happening uh are that uh Iraq is uh uh pumping 4 and a half million barrels a day pretty regularly. Uh uh the Saudis are pumping uh Kuwait. Uh there's restrictions on Iran. uh and uh that uh that probably keeps the price of oil from collapsing because if the Iranian oil were not on the black market and and and not just being smuggled to China but actually could be freely sold uh that would put a lot of extra oil on the market. Uh so you know I have to tell you though David that the Palestine and Israel issue is pretty far away from the centers of oil production and in my experience hasn't usually dramatically affected them. Uh and I think the markets are overly jittery about uh about struggles in the Levant affecting uh oil oil prices. you you see them reacting uh pretty dramatically to to these uh outbreaks of violence between the Israelis and Palestinians, but neither country has oil and there isn't any oil anywhere nearby. Uh and the the big centers are the the Persian Gulf which usually uh don't get get dramatically affected although as I said there has been this um about 10% of of energy goes through the Suz canal. So that that has been in effect. >> Well, that raises the question as to whether or not matters in the Middle East still still matter for oil. Historically, OPEC has been the dominant producer of oil. Uh now with shale, I mean not now, but in in recent years with shale production, the US has become more or less self-sufficient, at least according to the news. Uh first of all, maybe evaluate whether or not that statement is true. And if it is, then should we even as oil investors should oil investors or participants in the oil market uh react to the Middle East at all? >> Well, the Middle East more widely. Yes. I mean, because although, as you say, uh there's a lot of oil production outside the Middle East. Uh the the the Persian Gulf still, if last I knew, had about 22% of production. And oil is a a fragile commodity. uh you know it's it's um it's something where uh people absolutely need it to run their I mean 70% of it is for transportation so they need it to run their automobiles their trucks and for commerce uh and so if one country you know of of the oil producers in the Middle East uh suffered a strike or or some kind of terrorist attack uh it would put oil prices way up uh but uh So yeah, I think the Middle East is still very significant for the price of oil, but I I don't think that the Palestine Israel conflict is is the thing that would mainly affect it. Uh it would be conflicts in the Gulf itself um uh that would have that uh that impact. I I think the the Trump enormous pressure on on Iran is is the kind of thing that does affect oil prices for instance uh because Iran can't sell its oil on world markets because of of US um uh sanctions and so has to smuggle it. Typically they smuggle it to third countries like Malaysia and then uh those countries uh black market it mainly to China. There is a broader theory that all of what's happening currently is a proxy war between the US and China with Iran funding members like Hzbollah that are opposing Israel and Israel um being backed by the US, Iran being backed in some ways by China. Uh what's really happening is a proxy war between an existing superpower and an emerging superpower. Just based on history, is there a precedent in history for these things happening on a wider scale? >> Oh, well, there's a precedent in history certainly for challenger states to emerge as as as rivals to dominant powers. Um, the Soviet Union was was not important in the the 20s, whereas the British Empire uh ruled much of the earth uh by by the 1950s. the Soviet Union was a superpower and the British were a small island. So, uh those shifts have occurred. There have been challenges in the past. I I don't think that China uh the Chinese leadership is invested in Iran's projects. Uh I think Iran is an inconvenient uh uh partner for them. Uh they um they're they're afraid of American sanctions. uh and so don't want to get too openly involved in Iran. Uh and they don't, I think, approve of uh uh of the violence that Iran has been involved in. I mean, to be fair, the Iranians would uh would configure it as a form of resistance that that they've been under attack and their allies have been under attack. Uh but in any case, you know, the Chinese have this theory of harmonious development and uh they they hope to make their way into superpower status without getting distracted by these uh regional conflicts. Uh so if anything, my I don't have any proof of it, but my my guess is that the Chinese have told the Iranians to cool it. uh and uh uh and uh uh the the big challenge if you're talking about oil markets that China poses is not in that regard of geopolitical conflict in the Middle East. It's it's the the green revolution in China and the the the rise of the of the uh of the EV. Uh the the Chinese uh uh have several important electric vehicle companies including BYD. Uh they are uh reducing prices. Uh they're making more and more efficient uh batteries. Uh it's becoming a a bigger and bigger part of the the Chinese automotive market. And the likelihood is um Ember and others uh have have made this projection that Chinese uh oil demand has peaked uh this year uh because of so many Chinese are are driving EVs. They're not they're not importing uh uh petroleum to fuel them. And it's likely that they'll import less and less petroleum uh in the next decade. uh and if if that happens in China and if the Chinese can roll out this uh EV industry in other countries as they as they hope to uh that's the big challenge. there's going to be downward pressure on on the oil prices coming from the rise of electric vehicles. won't happen in the United States because of the Trump administration or it won't happen to the extent that it might have uh but uh in uh in the rest of the world including Europe uh Africa, Latin America uh if the Chinese way becomes dominant uh then it's it's really uh a challenge to the oil markets and you could see a long-term secular decline in the industry. To your earlier point about China wanting to become a world superpower without the need of conflict, is that even possible? Uh isn't it true that history has taught us that an emerging superpower has usually clashed with an with a rising one? >> Well, yes. Uh there have been a lot of situations like that. But uh actually the Soviet Union is an interesting case where uh because it emerged at a time after nuclear weapons had been introduced into the world and because the Soviets got their own nuclear weapons uh not so long after the United States had them. Uh there wasn't ever a direct war between the United States and and the Soviet Union. uh the two uh did have severe geopolitical conflicts, but they tended to uh divert them into uh uh third countries. And so the Vietnam War was they had these third world pro proxy wars. Uh and um and that's the much more likely uh uh form that a conflict between the United States and China would take. not not a direct military confrontation but uh some sort of proxy war over some uh over over some area or some resource uh in in the global south. Uh but at the moment the Chinese have resisted taking that kind of of bait. I I don't I don't mean to configure them as as heroic. I think that they have selfish reasons for which they don't want to divert resources to military confrontations. Uh and they have, you know, rattled sabers with Taiwan and with with the Philippines, uh uh to some extent with with Japan. Uh so they're they're not always um necessarily a pleasant adversary to deal with, but uh you know, pursuing a big war. uh so far has not been their strategy and I think they are afraid that it would drain resources uh that that are needed if they're to compete with the United States because by by nominal GDP they're still behind uh and and certainly the amount of poverty in in China far exceeds that of places like the United States or Europe. So they're they're coming from behind and uh they need their national resources for things like uh making themselves an electro state uh for competing in world markets. They don't they don't want to be spending money on munitions. >> How much animosity actually is there between China and the US? this rhetoric that we're seeing on an almost daily basis from the government warning about China um being belligerent and how they're unreliable partners to the world. I'll show you this quote by Scott Pacent in just a minute. Uh how much of that is just talk from the politicians to, you know, galvanize the population so to speak. Is there actually, you know, maybe behind closed doors they're really just partners? I don't know. I >> I think it's a mixed bag. Uh David, I think there are many areas in which they are partners. They continue to be partners and uh uh I think u you know you look at the volume of trade between the two countries and it's it's just enormous uh and uh and continuing and and Trump's tariffs will affect it to some extent in some sectors. You know, the the Chinese are not buying US soybeans this year. Uh but that's just one uh commodity. uh you're talking about hundreds of billions of dollars in in in trade uh annually. Uh and and with regard to some issues, you know, Trump still talks about trying to enlist Chinese aid in resolving the Ukraine uh uh conflict, for instance. uh and it it maybe doesn't seem very likely uh on the outside but uh certainly he can use Beijing to send messages uh and uh uh so yes I mean it's not the the the Chinese US rivalry uh is there uh and uh important uh but it's um it's it's you know as a person who grew up in the 20th century remembers the cold war between the United States and the Soviet Union it's nothing like that I mean the Soviet Union, the United States were really toe-to-toe. They had those tanks lined up in in Germany eyeing one another and uh there was danger of them going to war at any moment and they were involved in these very heavy duty proxy wars like Vietnam. Uh and and there was very little trade between the Soviet Union and the United States. Uh a little bit of wheat and uh maybe some oil and so forth, but uh it was a a tiny market. Uh so this it's not at all like that. I mean the China Chinese US relationship is is as you say much more complex. >> Well this just came in from uh the Treasury Secretary Scott Ascent in response to well Trump's 100% tariff announcement on China. China then um announced it would stop exporting critical minerals. If China wants to be an unreliable partner to the world then the world will have to decouple. Pent said, "The world does not want to decouple. We want to derisk, but signals like this are signs of decoupling, which we don't believe China wants." Could it be possible, professor, that the Cold War, the future is purely economical? Instead of tanks lining up, you know, on other either side of Berlin, we have either side willing to pull the trigger on exporting critical minerals, materials, and what the other trading partner needs, thereby crippling the entire economic block of the adversary. Is that is that what's happening? >> I don't think it will go to that extent. you know, the the the the Chinese uh were were clever in developing rare earth mineral extraction and refiner refining uh before anybody else. Uh what's what are called rare earth minerals which are very important to the uh the green revolution uh in in energy and uh uh transportation are not actually rare. I mean that's a a term of art. They're everywhere, but nobody else has developed them the way the Chinese have done. And so at the moment they have a functional monopoly on them. And I think it's a weapon of the weak, you know, when they say, "Well, look, if you're going to put all these tariffs on us and hurt our economy, we're just not going to share our our rare earth minerals, which we now, you know, have this temporary monopoly on." Uh that that's a a bargaining chip. That's a way of saying, "You're hurting us. We'll hurt you back. Uh please back off." Uh but it's it's in my view it's a sign of weakness that they have to do something like that. Uh and uh I I think you know people like Basant and and and Trump uh talk a big game about polarization and but but we've already discussed that the amount of trade between the two countries is is just enormous and it would be bad for the United States to to polarize uh economically to that extent. >> I'll end on this one final question. You're a professor of history and a student of history. So just looking at the last 50 years, how do you think the world will change in the next 50 years? In other words, if we were to look at the starting point, which is some point in the 70s, and then the end point, which is some point in the oo 20 2070s, which is a 100 years span, right? How how would that change? Well, I I think the the signs are that that China will emerge as as the major superpower in the world. U partially because it's uh it's decided to go in big for the for for green energy. Uh and and and you know 80% of the solar panels that are that are uh bought in the world are bought from from China. Uh there's enormous markets for these panels in in in Africa and Latin America and so forth. United States is not in that game is I don't know it's like 2% of the market. Uh and EVs are another place where the Chinese are innovating where you know the European auto markets are are are trembling with with terror that the the Chinese are just going to move in and a car means a Chinese car uh and uh because BYD has a $16,000 EV uh with a pretty good range and and nobody else has anything like that. and and if if there were actually free trade, you know, already the Chinese would be making enormous inroads in the American market. They're not allowed to to sell those things here. Uh so, um I I think that on on sort of technological grounds, the Chinese are positioning themselves to to to be the dominant economic power. They're going to be the first electro state, going to be the first advanced electro state. and the Trump administration policies uh uh it seems to me are in danger of making the United States a much more backward country. He's decimated the scientific establishment just this year. Uh some 10 to 15% of government scientists have been fired. Uh those were people who did basic research who were developing things that turned in later on to to pro products and to to sell in the market. Uh so I I think um the other thing though is that because of of of global heating and climate uh breakdown uh there's going to be a lot of unpredictable changes in the world. Uh there are going to be some places that are going to be very hard to live in uh because it's so hot uh or or it becomes so dry. Uh there going to be enormous you know hundreds of millions of people are going to move. Uh I think uh Canada uh if it continues to welcome immigration has the potential uh to become a very big and important country because it's it's going to have a much more uh uh temperate climate uh and there are going to be enormous opportunities uh for uh immigration and development uh and uh uh I think the Canadians sometimes don't don't appreciate their own weight in the world uh but uh But it it could emerge as as a very major player >> or the 51st state. One of the two. We'll see. Thank you very much. >> Go the other way around. >> I don't see that happening. >> One could theorize. Um, excellent. Thank you very much. Where can we learn from you? Perhaps follow you and read your work. >> Yeah. So, I have a blog informed comment. Uh, and my name is Juan Cole Juan C. If you just Google either one, it'll come right up. >> Yeah. All right. Thank you very much, Professor Cole. We'll speak again soon and thank you for watching. 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Will Trade War Go Nuclear? What's Next After Latest Escalations | Juan Cole
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the colonialism should have passed and people should have self-determination. Palestinians don't have it in fact and the United States is the main reason for which uh the Palestinians are suffering in this way. Benjamin Netanyahu and the extremists on his cabinet will find a way uh to go back to war and they they've done this before. Those gangs were Israeli backed uh and were seen by the Israelis as alternatives to Hamas. >> How do we how do we know this, Professor? We're talking about a potential peace in the Middle East with our next guest, Juan Cole. He is the professor of history at the University of Michigan and also the editor-inchief of informed comment. Will the ceasefire in Gaza last? We'll find out. Professor, welcome to the show. Good to see you. >> Likewise, David. >> Professor Cole, let's walk over or let's walk through rather what happened in the last week. There was a ceasefire brokered. uh both sides, Israel and Hamas agreed to exchange the bodies of hostages. Um what's happened up until now? Let's just give a recap to our audience, then we can discuss what may happen next. >> Sure. Well, uh this uh horrible situation in in uh Israel and Palestine has been going on now for 2 years uh with uh Israeli uh bombardment of uh of Gaza very intensively the destruction of uh over 80% of the uh of the buildings or the damage or destruction of 80% of the buildings uh and the damage to the infrastructure blockade paid since uh April on uh on food uh and and medical aid entering the the Gaza Strip uh and a great deal of suffering. The United Nations declared it a famine. Uh it also has been widely uh viewed as a genocide. uh and uh I think the US presidents could have stopped it at any moment because Israel is deeply dependent on the United States for resupply of ammunitions and munitions. Uh and the US was uh in essence a silent partner in this uh war. Uh and um uh for reasons that are of course a little murky because they're private. uh the Trump uh and his close uh associates uh decided that the time had come to to end this thing. Uh I think it could have been ended long before uh I think um you you had an opportunity in the Biden administration a year ago uh to end it. Uh I I personally think that the obstacle to ending it had been uh Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the extremists on his cabinet uh who uh hadn't achieved their maximalist goals. Netanyahu himself, I think, is a little afraid of going out of office and going to jail. He's under indictment for corruption. uh and the war was one way to keep himself uh uh in the catbird seat. Uh but for various reasons, Trump grew dissatisfied with uh with this situation with Netanyahu dragging his feet all the time. He's he's alleged to have said, "I don't know why you're negative. This is a this peace deal is a win for you. Take it." Let's take a look at uh or listen to what Trump has said in a um a press briefing on this subject and we'll respond together. Take a listen, professor. >> How long will it take Hamas to disarm? And can you guarantee that is going to happen? >> Well, they're going to disarm. Uh and because they said they were going to disarm and if they don't disarm, we will disarm them. >> How will you do that? >> I don't have to explain that to you, but if they don't disarm, we will disarm them. They know I'm not playing games. Okay. Now, we did something monumental. We got the hostages back. That was the first thing we had to do above all else. Get the hostages back. Now, they misrepresented because we were told they had 26, 24 of dead hostages, if we can use those terms. And it seems as though they don't have that because we're talking about a much lesser number. But that's a very tough subject. I want them back. That's what they said. I want them back. Uh, also they said they were going to disarm. Uh, and initially speaking, they needed, you know, they did take out a couple of gangs that were very bad, very, very bad gangs. And they did take them out and they killed a number of gang members and that didn't bother me much to be honest with you. That's okay. We had a couple of very bad gangs. You know, it's no different than other countries like Venezuela sent. >> Okay. And then he's talking about other things. So, let's just unpack what he said there. If Hamas doesn't disarm, we'll disarm for them. Is it truly the role of the US military to be disarming combating groups in the Middle East though right now is the bigger question. >> Well, there were many rep misrepresentations and what Trump said uh and and some puzzles. Uh Hamas actually, to my knowledge, has not agreed to disarm. what they agreed to was that they would not be uh the government of Gaza going forward and they would not be in the government of Gaza going forward. So, they're accepting uh stepping down from a rulership role. Uh but their spokespeople have repeatedly said they wouldn't disarm. uh they they have come into conflict as the Israeli troops have withdrawn from uh about 45% of Gaza. They've come into conflict with gangs that had formed which were preying on people. Uh those gangs were Israeli backed uh and were seen by the Israelis as alternatives to Hamas. >> How do we how do we know this, Professor? >> Oh, it's been widely reported. I mean, there there isn't any question about it. Uh, and and that that Trump approves of Hamas destroying these Israeli backed gangs is is is odd. I mean, certainly not what what the Israeli cabinet would would have said about it. Um, but the the US doesn't have troops in Gaza. It it's not going to have troops in Gaza in my view, and it's not in a position to disarm anybody in in Gaza. and Gaza is in chaos. When when when a government and a military has been made to collapse, as we saw in Iraq in in earlier in this century, the country falls into chaos. Even in Iraq, we had 170,000 US troops and they still couldn't disarm people. Uh so the this this kind of posturing that Trump does that he's in control and he'll make things happen. I mean, the reporter was quite right to ask him, you know, how are you going to do that? And and he he refused he refused to answer the question because there isn't an answer. >> Okay. Uh it seems like maybe you're referring to uh this story here and as some others reported Israel confirms its arming Hamas rivals in operation opposing opposition calls complete madness and also reported by Al Jazzer that in is in in June apparently Israeli officials admitted to arming gangs in Gaza some of which have a ties which have ties to ISIS in an effort to destabilize Hamas. Now, right now, you know, regardless of who's arming these groups, Trump wants an end to this violence, and he's even wrote he he wrote on Truth Social that if this violence doesn't end, if Hamas continues to kill people in Gaza, which was not the deal, we will have no choice but to go in and kill them. Thank you for your attention to this matter. Uh what what do you make of that statement? Well, aside from uh bombarding them, which you know hasn't worked for the Israelis for two years, there isn't anything that Trump can do about Hamas. But the real question is, David, who who is going to succeed Hamas in governing the Gaza Strip? Because that new authority, if it's established, would be the authority that could hope to, you know, provide some security and and have people uh disarm. Uh and and we don't know the answer to this question. Uh it's um uh been bruted that uh former British Prime Minister Tony Blair will head an administration of the of the Gaza Strip. Uh some people have uh argued that it should be the Palestine Liberation Organization which runs the West Bank. Uh instead uh there's talk of an Arab force. uh uh Turkey has volunteered to send in forces. Uh but those discussions are wide-ranging and uh in Kuwait and and without uh specific issue as as you know as we now speak. So we don't know what the future of Gaza is going to be and the future of the administration of Gaza is going to determine the security situation. >> What needs to happen to maintain peace in the region in that particular region? Oh, the Palestinians need to have a state. All of these conflicts that we see in the Levant are about Palestinian statelessness. People in the West don't understand what's going on there and they don't understand that the Palestinians are under Israeli military occupation. Uh and um nobody in in North America would put up with that. I mean, if you had some foreign country running, you know, a province or a state in North in North America, people would pick up guns and fight it off. Uh, and this is this is not going to stop until the Palestinians have the dignity of citizenship, access to courts that can guarantee their rights and then their their property. Palestinians don't even know what they own because the Israelis can steal it from them at any moment. Before we jump back into the video, let's talk about something most people ignore. Online privacy. Now, your personal information isn't just sitting on your phone or email. It's being scraped, bought, and sold by data broker websites every day without your permission. Our sponsor today, Delete Me, helps you take that control back. They scan the internet for your exposed information, send you regular privacy reports, and remove your data from hundreds of broker sites so it can't be used against you. Take mine for example. In the latest report, they reviewed over 325 listings to see if any data of brokers had my personal information, and they continue to check every week to ensure that it stays off. Go to joindeleteme.com/davidlin and use the promo code davidin at checkout link down below or scan the QR code here on the screen and you'll get 20% off of all US plans. Take control of your privacy today before somebody else does. Palestinians are recognized as a state by I believe 157 countries around the world already. Professor, so if I were just to take the opposite side of this discussion, I would say it's not the recognition that that ends. Clearly, they're recognized by the majority of the world. It's a matter of practice. What impractice needs to happen for conflict and violence to end? >> Well, th those recognitions are proforma. They're they're just on paper. The the fact is, you know, if you lived in in in West Bank or or Gaza, which are the Palestinian territories with Palestinian majorities, there are five or six million people living there, the the um uh the you're in your everyday life, it's the Israeli military who tells you what to do. Uh there's Israeli troops patrolling. In fact, there are Israeli squatters who came over from Israel, stole Palestinian land, made settlements on them, and then send out militias to attack neighboring Palestinian villages every day, often with the comp with the complicity of the Israeli military. So there there isn't a state. If you're a Palestinian and and and an Israeli settler attacks you, to to which Palestinian court could you go for for relief? There isn't one. uh and about 40% of the West Bank uh is is such that the PLO uh has police uh but they're essentially forced to be in handinand glove with the Israeli military. So there isn't any Palestinian state. Uh it it's a it's an occupation regime. Uh it's not any different from uh British India where there was no no Indian government. It was the British that ran India for for 200 years. uh it's a colonial situation and uh this the world agrees that this should not be that that the colonialism should have passed and people should have self-determination. The Palestinians don't have it in fact and the United States is the main reason for which uh the Palestinians are suffering in this way. So you asked me you know what would make for peace in the in the region. We keep seeing these outbreaks of of of war um over the Palestine issue because it's unresolved. Uh if Mr. Trump really wanted to be a tough guy and and intervene to make a historic uh uh settlement, he could. Uh but that's what you in my view what needs to happen is there needs to be a Palestinian state. >> All right. And then the other side of the coin here, what would happen to sabotage uh this peace deal? So this article, for example, highlight highlights some potential scenarios, worst case scenarios that could end uh the Gaza peace deal. Uh I'll sum it up here for the audience and yourself. Hamas seeks to retain underground command structures, avoid disarmament. Number two, Israeli far-right working to block Palestinian uh statethood. Um and then number three, Iran is attempting to maintain regional deterrence by rearming proxy forces like Hezbollah. Um I'll let you comment on those points, perhaps some other thoughts of your own. What could end this peace deal? >> Well, I mean, the peace deal is so open-ended that virtually anything could end it. uh there there's no there's no practical uh structure for ongoing peace uh at the moment. We we just we've had an Israeli withdrawal from uh less than half of the Gaza Strip uh which has left chaos in its wake as as might be expected. There's been nothing to replace it. Uh and uh of course I mean to the extent that Hamas still exists and remember it's been reduced to a tiny shadow of its former self I don't think it can assert itself to take back over Gaza nor do I think its leaders would want to do that. Um so you know yes all of those spoilers are possibilities. The main one in my view is that Benjamin Netanyahu and the extremists on his cabinet will find a way uh to go back to war. And they they've done this before. There was a an ar there there was a um a pause in the fighting and uh in in January and February and in March Netanyahu just pulled out the stops and went back to war and and imposed a food blockade on the Gaza Strip. So, um, uh, you know, there are people in the Israeli cabinet who would very much like to spoil this deal and and they have the power. Hamas is is is a is a non- entity at the moment. Hezbollah is much weakened. Iran is much weakened. I don't think that they're the main players here. I think it's the Israelis. So, if the Israeli government uh wanted to have some kind of accommodation to the Palestinians, then then you could have some hope. But there's no sign uh that that's the way they think. >> This is a chart of the oil price and um I think investors and participants in the oil market would like to know from you professor how fragile generally speaking is this deal because what we saw happened on the 10th of October was oil dropped about 3% on the on the news and it's continuing to drop. So I think the market's pricing in that no escalation is going to happen yet. Now, this could all change overnight. So, in your calculation of probabilities here, how likely is it that we can get this reversal? In other words, um complete end to the deal back to violence and then perhaps even escalation and then oil will go back up. Well, I think there's a 50/50 chance that the immediate fighting in Gaza has has come to a close. In my experience, people fight for as long as they think that the continued fighting might give them some advantage. I I I suspect that both sides have reached the point where they see that there isn't a continued advantage uh in the fighting. Uh the the kinds of things that would affect the oil markets are that uh you know the uh the Houthis in North Yemen have been uh bombarding uh uh tankers and uh uh and container ships plying the Red Sea going up and down from the Suez Canal. Uh they the Houthies have been pretty they're they're wild men, but they they've been uh they've been men of their word to some extent that they won't do that if if this if the Israelis stop attacking Gaza and they didn't in January and February when there was a temporary pause in the fighting. So uh that would be good news for for the uh for the oil markets and for shipping in general because uh there are six big containers ship companies and then you have uh some oil going through the Suez Canal uh some oil tankers uh and all a lot of those have had to find alternative routes uh around the Cape of Good Hope for instance. uh it has added expense uh to to shipping um uh especially from from Asia uh back and forth. So um uh should should this piece hold and I I say 50/50 uh it will uh that uh Suez Canal Red Sea shipping lane uh blockade of the of the Houthies should should subside. Uh and uh so that would be good that would be good news for for the oil markets and and and for for the container ships as well. Uh the um uh the other things that are happening uh are that uh Iraq is uh uh pumping 4 and a half million barrels a day pretty regularly. Uh uh the Saudis are pumping uh Kuwait. Uh there's restrictions on Iran. uh and uh that uh that probably keeps the price of oil from collapsing because if the Iranian oil were not on the black market and and and not just being smuggled to China but actually could be freely sold uh that would put a lot of extra oil on the market. Uh so you know I have to tell you though David that the Palestine and Israel issue is pretty far away from the centers of oil production and in my experience hasn't usually dramatically affected them. Uh and I think the markets are overly jittery about uh about struggles in the Levant affecting uh oil oil prices. you you see them reacting uh pretty dramatically to to these uh outbreaks of violence between the Israelis and Palestinians, but neither country has oil and there isn't any oil anywhere nearby. Uh and the the big centers are the the Persian Gulf which usually uh don't get get dramatically affected although as I said there has been this um about 10% of of energy goes through the Suz canal. So that that has been in effect. >> Well, that raises the question as to whether or not matters in the Middle East still still matter for oil. Historically, OPEC has been the dominant producer of oil. Uh now with shale, I mean not now, but in in recent years with shale production, the US has become more or less self-sufficient, at least according to the news. Uh first of all, maybe evaluate whether or not that statement is true. And if it is, then should we even as oil investors should oil investors or participants in the oil market uh react to the Middle East at all? >> Well, the Middle East more widely. Yes. I mean, because although, as you say, uh there's a lot of oil production outside the Middle East. Uh the the the Persian Gulf still, if last I knew, had about 22% of production. And oil is a a fragile commodity. uh you know it's it's um it's something where uh people absolutely need it to run their I mean 70% of it is for transportation so they need it to run their automobiles their trucks and for commerce uh and so if one country you know of of the oil producers in the Middle East uh suffered a strike or or some kind of terrorist attack uh it would put oil prices way up uh but uh So yeah, I think the Middle East is still very significant for the price of oil, but I I don't think that the Palestine Israel conflict is is the thing that would mainly affect it. Uh it would be conflicts in the Gulf itself um uh that would have that uh that impact. I I think the the Trump enormous pressure on on Iran is is the kind of thing that does affect oil prices for instance uh because Iran can't sell its oil on world markets because of of US um uh sanctions and so has to smuggle it. Typically they smuggle it to third countries like Malaysia and then uh those countries uh black market it mainly to China. There is a broader theory that all of what's happening currently is a proxy war between the US and China with Iran funding members like Hzbollah that are opposing Israel and Israel um being backed by the US, Iran being backed in some ways by China. Uh what's really happening is a proxy war between an existing superpower and an emerging superpower. Just based on history, is there a precedent in history for these things happening on a wider scale? >> Oh, well, there's a precedent in history certainly for challenger states to emerge as as as rivals to dominant powers. Um, the Soviet Union was was not important in the the 20s, whereas the British Empire uh ruled much of the earth uh by by the 1950s. the Soviet Union was a superpower and the British were a small island. So, uh those shifts have occurred. There have been challenges in the past. I I don't think that China uh the Chinese leadership is invested in Iran's projects. Uh I think Iran is an inconvenient uh uh partner for them. Uh they um they're they're afraid of American sanctions. uh and so don't want to get too openly involved in Iran. Uh and they don't, I think, approve of uh uh of the violence that Iran has been involved in. I mean, to be fair, the Iranians would uh would configure it as a form of resistance that that they've been under attack and their allies have been under attack. Uh but in any case, you know, the Chinese have this theory of harmonious development and uh they they hope to make their way into superpower status without getting distracted by these uh regional conflicts. Uh so if anything, my I don't have any proof of it, but my my guess is that the Chinese have told the Iranians to cool it. uh and uh uh and uh uh the the big challenge if you're talking about oil markets that China poses is not in that regard of geopolitical conflict in the Middle East. It's it's the the green revolution in China and the the the rise of the of the uh of the EV. Uh the the Chinese uh uh have several important electric vehicle companies including BYD. Uh they are uh reducing prices. Uh they're making more and more efficient uh batteries. Uh it's becoming a a bigger and bigger part of the the Chinese automotive market. And the likelihood is um Ember and others uh have have made this projection that Chinese uh oil demand has peaked uh this year uh because of so many Chinese are are driving EVs. They're not they're not importing uh uh petroleum to fuel them. And it's likely that they'll import less and less petroleum uh in the next decade. uh and if if that happens in China and if the Chinese can roll out this uh EV industry in other countries as they as they hope to uh that's the big challenge. there's going to be downward pressure on on the oil prices coming from the rise of electric vehicles. won't happen in the United States because of the Trump administration or it won't happen to the extent that it might have uh but uh in uh in the rest of the world including Europe uh Africa, Latin America uh if the Chinese way becomes dominant uh then it's it's really uh a challenge to the oil markets and you could see a long-term secular decline in the industry. To your earlier point about China wanting to become a world superpower without the need of conflict, is that even possible? Uh isn't it true that history has taught us that an emerging superpower has usually clashed with an with a rising one? >> Well, yes. Uh there have been a lot of situations like that. But uh actually the Soviet Union is an interesting case where uh because it emerged at a time after nuclear weapons had been introduced into the world and because the Soviets got their own nuclear weapons uh not so long after the United States had them. Uh there wasn't ever a direct war between the United States and and the Soviet Union. uh the two uh did have severe geopolitical conflicts, but they tended to uh divert them into uh uh third countries. And so the Vietnam War was they had these third world pro proxy wars. Uh and um and that's the much more likely uh uh form that a conflict between the United States and China would take. not not a direct military confrontation but uh some sort of proxy war over some uh over over some area or some resource uh in in the global south. Uh but at the moment the Chinese have resisted taking that kind of of bait. I I don't I don't mean to configure them as as heroic. I think that they have selfish reasons for which they don't want to divert resources to military confrontations. Uh and they have, you know, rattled sabers with Taiwan and with with the Philippines, uh uh to some extent with with Japan. Uh so they're they're not always um necessarily a pleasant adversary to deal with, but uh you know, pursuing a big war. uh so far has not been their strategy and I think they are afraid that it would drain resources uh that that are needed if they're to compete with the United States because by by nominal GDP they're still behind uh and and certainly the amount of poverty in in China far exceeds that of places like the United States or Europe. So they're they're coming from behind and uh they need their national resources for things like uh making themselves an electro state uh for competing in world markets. They don't they don't want to be spending money on munitions. >> How much animosity actually is there between China and the US? this rhetoric that we're seeing on an almost daily basis from the government warning about China um being belligerent and how they're unreliable partners to the world. I'll show you this quote by Scott Pacent in just a minute. Uh how much of that is just talk from the politicians to, you know, galvanize the population so to speak. Is there actually, you know, maybe behind closed doors they're really just partners? I don't know. I >> I think it's a mixed bag. Uh David, I think there are many areas in which they are partners. They continue to be partners and uh uh I think u you know you look at the volume of trade between the two countries and it's it's just enormous uh and uh and continuing and and Trump's tariffs will affect it to some extent in some sectors. You know, the the Chinese are not buying US soybeans this year. Uh but that's just one uh commodity. uh you're talking about hundreds of billions of dollars in in in trade uh annually. Uh and and with regard to some issues, you know, Trump still talks about trying to enlist Chinese aid in resolving the Ukraine uh uh conflict, for instance. uh and it it maybe doesn't seem very likely uh on the outside but uh certainly he can use Beijing to send messages uh and uh uh so yes I mean it's not the the the Chinese US rivalry uh is there uh and uh important uh but it's um it's it's you know as a person who grew up in the 20th century remembers the cold war between the United States and the Soviet Union it's nothing like that I mean the Soviet Union, the United States were really toe-to-toe. They had those tanks lined up in in Germany eyeing one another and uh there was danger of them going to war at any moment and they were involved in these very heavy duty proxy wars like Vietnam. Uh and and there was very little trade between the Soviet Union and the United States. Uh a little bit of wheat and uh maybe some oil and so forth, but uh it was a a tiny market. Uh so this it's not at all like that. I mean the China Chinese US relationship is is as you say much more complex. >> Well this just came in from uh the Treasury Secretary Scott Ascent in response to well Trump's 100% tariff announcement on China. China then um announced it would stop exporting critical minerals. If China wants to be an unreliable partner to the world then the world will have to decouple. Pent said, "The world does not want to decouple. We want to derisk, but signals like this are signs of decoupling, which we don't believe China wants." Could it be possible, professor, that the Cold War, the future is purely economical? Instead of tanks lining up, you know, on other either side of Berlin, we have either side willing to pull the trigger on exporting critical minerals, materials, and what the other trading partner needs, thereby crippling the entire economic block of the adversary. Is that is that what's happening? >> I don't think it will go to that extent. you know, the the the the Chinese uh were were clever in developing rare earth mineral extraction and refiner refining uh before anybody else. Uh what's what are called rare earth minerals which are very important to the uh the green revolution uh in in energy and uh uh transportation are not actually rare. I mean that's a a term of art. They're everywhere, but nobody else has developed them the way the Chinese have done. And so at the moment they have a functional monopoly on them. And I think it's a weapon of the weak, you know, when they say, "Well, look, if you're going to put all these tariffs on us and hurt our economy, we're just not going to share our our rare earth minerals, which we now, you know, have this temporary monopoly on." Uh that that's a a bargaining chip. That's a way of saying, "You're hurting us. We'll hurt you back. Uh please back off." Uh but it's it's in my view it's a sign of weakness that they have to do something like that. Uh and uh I I think you know people like Basant and and and Trump uh talk a big game about polarization and but but we've already discussed that the amount of trade between the two countries is is just enormous and it would be bad for the United States to to polarize uh economically to that extent. >> I'll end on this one final question. You're a professor of history and a student of history. So just looking at the last 50 years, how do you think the world will change in the next 50 years? In other words, if we were to look at the starting point, which is some point in the 70s, and then the end point, which is some point in the oo 20 2070s, which is a 100 years span, right? How how would that change? Well, I I think the the signs are that that China will emerge as as the major superpower in the world. U partially because it's uh it's decided to go in big for the for for green energy. Uh and and and you know 80% of the solar panels that are that are uh bought in the world are bought from from China. Uh there's enormous markets for these panels in in in Africa and Latin America and so forth. United States is not in that game is I don't know it's like 2% of the market. Uh and EVs are another place where the Chinese are innovating where you know the European auto markets are are are trembling with with terror that the the Chinese are just going to move in and a car means a Chinese car uh and uh because BYD has a $16,000 EV uh with a pretty good range and and nobody else has anything like that. and and if if there were actually free trade, you know, already the Chinese would be making enormous inroads in the American market. They're not allowed to to sell those things here. Uh so, um I I think that on on sort of technological grounds, the Chinese are positioning themselves to to to be the dominant economic power. They're going to be the first electro state, going to be the first advanced electro state. and the Trump administration policies uh uh it seems to me are in danger of making the United States a much more backward country. He's decimated the scientific establishment just this year. Uh some 10 to 15% of government scientists have been fired. Uh those were people who did basic research who were developing things that turned in later on to to pro products and to to sell in the market. Uh so I I think um the other thing though is that because of of of global heating and climate uh breakdown uh there's going to be a lot of unpredictable changes in the world. Uh there are going to be some places that are going to be very hard to live in uh because it's so hot uh or or it becomes so dry. Uh there going to be enormous you know hundreds of millions of people are going to move. Uh I think uh Canada uh if it continues to welcome immigration has the potential uh to become a very big and important country because it's it's going to have a much more uh uh temperate climate uh and there are going to be enormous opportunities uh for uh immigration and development uh and uh uh I think the Canadians sometimes don't don't appreciate their own weight in the world uh but uh But it it could emerge as as a very major player >> or the 51st state. One of the two. We'll see. Thank you very much. >> Go the other way around. >> I don't see that happening. >> One could theorize. Um, excellent. Thank you very much. Where can we learn from you? Perhaps follow you and read your work. >> Yeah. So, I have a blog informed comment. Uh, and my name is Juan Cole Juan C. If you just Google either one, it'll come right up. >> Yeah. All right. Thank you very much, Professor Cole. We'll speak again soon and thank you for watching. Don't forget to like, subscribe, and follow Juan Cole in the links down below.