| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
HORAN Wealth's Winter 2025 letter highlights the continued dominance of AI-related investments, with the Magnificent 7 stocks contributing 42% of S&P 500 returns despite not appearing in the top 10 individual performers. International markets significantly outperformed U.S. markets, with emerging markets returning 33.7% versus 17.6% for the S&P 500, aided by a 10% decline in the U.S. Dollar. The manager expects this Dollar weakness to persist due to budget deficits and dovish Fed policy. Strong consumer spending drove 4.3% GDP growth despite low sentiment readings. Looking ahead, earnings growth becomes critical with S&P 500 earnings expected to grow 15.6% in 2026. The manager anticipates market broadening beyond large-cap tech, with cyclical and value stocks potentially benefiting from expected Fed rate cuts. While volatility similar to 2025's first half correction remains possible, the combination of strong earnings expectations, expanding international economic activity, and dovish monetary policy supports continued bull market conditions with broader participation.
While AI and the Magnificent 7 stocks continue to drive market returns, 2026 presents opportunities for broader market participation as international markets outperform, the U.S. Dollar weakens, and cyclical/value stocks may benefit from expected Fed rate cuts and strong earnings growth.
The manager expects continued positive market performance driven by strong earnings growth, with S&P 500 earnings expected to grow 15.6% in 2026. They anticipate potential market broadening beyond the Magnificent 7 stocks, with cyclical and value-oriented stocks potentially leading performance as the Fed maintains a dovish stance. International markets may continue to outperform due to expanding economic activity and a potentially weaker U.S. Dollar.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14 2026 | 2025 Q4 | ACWX, EEM, EFA, GOOGL, META, NFLX, SPY | AI, consumer, Dollar, earnings, Fed policy, international, technology | - | AI remains the dominant investment theme for 2025, with the Magnificent 7 stocks accounting for 42% of S&P 500 returns. Technology-related stocks dominated the top… |
| Oct 14 2025 | 2025 Q3 | - | Artificial Intelligence, Data centers, Electricity, fiscal stimulus, Rate Cuts | - | HORAN emphasizes fiscal stimulus from U.S. corporate tax cuts and the Federal Reserves renewed easing cycle as drivers of market strength. The letter notes rapid… |
| Jul 20 2025 | 2025 Q2 | - | behavior, confidence, Cycles, Sentiment, volatility | - | The commentary focuses on the tension between improving investor sentiment and underlying fiscal, inflation, and debt risks. While markets recovered rapidly, the manager highlights sentiment… |
| Apr 14 2025 | 2025 Q1 | - | - | - | - |
| Jan 7 2025 | 2024 Q4 | - | - | - | - |
| Oct 22 2024 | 2024 Q3 | - | - | - | - |
| Jul 10 2024 | 2024 Q2 | - | - | - | - |
| Apr 22 2024 | 2024 Q1 | - | - | - | - |
| Jan 13 2024 | 2023 Q4 | - | - | - | - |
| Oct 20 2023 | 2023 Q3 | - | - | - | - |
| Jul 17 2023 | 2023 Q2 | - | - | - | - |
| Apr 17 2023 | 2023 Q1 | - | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIThe extended federal government shutdown added volatility during what was otherwise a risk-on environment, with a mid-quarter shift in market behavior for AI-related equities as the exuberant narrative evolved to one more balanced in assessing the technology's enormous potential against staggering capital spending plans and high expectations. The team initiated a position in Credo Technology as a more diversified way to gain exposure to strong trends in AI-connectivity. |
Connectivity Semiconductors Infrastructure Capital Spending |
DollarThe U.S. dollar fell more than 9% during 2025, supporting international markets. The dollar was pressured by high starting valuation and mounting concerns about global investor concentration in U.S. assets. Narrowing interest rate differentials may drive further decline. |
Currency International Valuation | |
EarningsEarnings are central to the manager's optimism with consensus expectations pointing to meaningful acceleration in small-cap earnings in 2026, with growth projected in the low-to-mid teens and exceeding that of large-cap companies. This anticipated rebound reflects easier year-over-year comparisons, improving operating leverage, and broadening demand across cyclical and value-oriented sectors. |
Earnings Growth Operating Leverage Cyclical Sectors Consensus Estimates Earnings Revisions | |
| 2025 Q3 |
InfrastructureFiera Capital enhanced capabilities in infrastructure as a segment where they have deep expertise and privileged access to opportunities. This represents a strategic focus area for capital allocation. |
Infrastructure Private Markets Capabilities |
| 2025 Q2 |
Sentiment |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Elevator Pitches found | ||||||||||
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| ACWX | Out of the equity indexes shown on the table, the second and third best performing markets were the iShares MSCI All Country World Index ex U.S. (ACWX), which was up 32.3% |
| EEM | As seen in Figure 3, the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) returned 33.7% last year. This compares to the SPDR S&P 500 ETF return of 17.6%. |
| EFA | Let's examine the returns of otherwise identical indices, where one is hedged to the U.S. dollar and the other remains unhedged. A useful example is the MSCI EAFE (EFA, HEFA), a basket of stocks denominated in currencies such as the euro, yen, pound, and franc. Over the past year, this distinction has become evident: the unhedged EFA has returned 29.6%, while its currency-hedged counterpart, HEFA, has returned 21.6%. |
| GOOGL | In the third quarter, Google, Kairos Power, and the Tennessee Valley Authority announced a major collaboration centered on a novel power purchase agreement. Google followed this announcement with another significant step forward. On October 27, Google and NextEra Energy announced plans to restart the Duane Arnold Energy Center. |
| META | On January 9, Meta Platforms unveiled a new agreement with Vistra—the largest generator of competitive electricity in the United States—as well as with TerraPower and Oklo. The announcement builds on Meta's agreement last year with Constellation Energy and positions the company to become one of the largest corporate purchasers of nuclear-generated electricity in the United States. |
| NFLX | NFLX was the portfolio's largest detractor in 4Q25 following investor concerns around near-term subscriber growth and rising content spending. While revenue grew approximately 10% year-over-year, management guided to slower net subscriber additions in North America and Europe after recent price increases, and margins were pressured by elevated investment in live sports and international content. |
| SPY | Over the exact same period, the S&P 500 generated an annualized return of around 10.2%. A dollar invested passively in an S&P 500 ETF became roughly eleven dollars. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, is the most widely owned and actively traded ETF in the world. Its market capitalization today is roughly USD 700 billion—only about 1% of the total market capitalization of the S&P 500 constituents. Yet SPY's typical daily trading volume is USD 30–40 billion, while the combined daily trading volume of the underlying S&P 500 companies is approximately USD 500–700 billion. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
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| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
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| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
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