| Quarter | Letter Date | Fund Name | QTD | YTD | Tickers | Keywords/Themes | Theme Commentary | Pitches | Letter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q2 | Sep 27, 2025 | Quercus Fund | - | - | 0142.HK, 2233.HK, ACWI, ICBP.JK, SPY | Africa, AI, Bonds, catalysts, Cement, China, value | Manager emphasizes finding extremely undervalued securities and waiting for re-rating. Cites Walter Schloss philosophy of buying low enough that something good may happen. Focuses on securities trading at significant discounts to intrinsic value. | 3369 HK |
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| 2024 Q2 | Aug 16, 2024 | UBS Asset Management | - | - | RSP, SPY | asset allocation, credit, energy, Fed policy, Hedge Funds, trading, volatility | UBS expects the Fed to begin monetary easing to support risk assets into year-end, though delayed reaction could have serious consequences for labor markets. They see increasing divergence across G10 economies creating opportunities to trade differentials in rates and FX. | View | |
| 2025 Q2 | Jul 8, 2025 | Mountain Vista Wealth Management | - | - | FBTC, IEMG, IVE, IVW, IWM, IYZ, QQQ, SPY, VXUS, XLB, XLC, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLP, XLRE, XLU, XLV, XLY | diversification, Dollar, IPOs, Recovery, tariffs, volatility | Manager emphasizes that volatility is the price of admission for superior long-term returns, citing the April market decline and subsequent recovery. The VIX reached 60 during Liberation Day sell-off, the highest since March 2020. | View | |
| 2024 Q1 | Jun 7, 2024 | Quercus Fund | 0.0% | 35.3% | ACWI, BAK, LYB, OTIS, SPY | China, Cyclical, Patience, Services, undervalued, value | Otis China's elevator maintenance portfolio has grown from 210k to 400k units, representing over 50% of Otis' global portfolio growth. With decades-long modernization needs for elevators installed 15+ years ago, the portfolio is expected to continue growing at double-digit rates as China transitions to a more mature, service-focused market. | 002110.SZ 1826.HK |
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| 2024 Q2 | Jun 30, 2024 | The Wolf of Harcourt Street | -0.6% | 11.2% | FBTC, IEMG, IVE, IVW, IWM, IYZ, QQQ, SPY, VXUS, XLB, XLC, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLP, XLRE, XLU, XLV, XLY | diversification, Dollar, international, IPOs, tariffs, volatility | The manager emphasizes that volatility is the price of admission for superior long-term returns, citing the extreme market swings in April when the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 dropped 11% before recovering. Historical analysis shows strong returns following rapid market declines and near bear markets. | View | |
| 2025 Q1 | May 24, 2025 | Quercus Fund | - | 6.5% | ACWI, FPP.L, OTIS, SPY, UMG.AS | Asia, Banking, dividends, emerging markets, Petrochemicals, Resilience, value | Portfolio has always been curated with resilience in mind, aiming to withstand most macro developments. Manager believes they continue to be in the resiliency spectrum despite potential impacts from paradigm shifts like tariff changes. | HSBK.L |
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| 2026 Q1 | Apr 9, 2026 | Mountain Vista Wealth Management | - | - | FBTC, GLD, IWM, QQQ, SPY, USO, VXUS, XLE | AI, energy, Geopolitical, gold, inflation, Iran, private credit, software | View | ||
| 2025 Q1 | Apr 9, 2025 | Bireme Capital | 3.1% | 3.1% | SPY | global, Market Crash, risk, tariffs, Trade Policy, valuation, value | Trump announced massive tariffs on nearly every country in the world, with average effective tariff rates increasing from 3% to mid-20s, the highest since 1909. The tariffs function as a tax increase on consumers and businesses, with estimates suggesting several thousand dollars in immediate cost increases for average households. The policy is viewed as economically damaging and politically untenable long-term. | View | |
| 2024 Q1 | Apr 5, 2024 | Brummer Multi-Strategy Fund | - | - | FBTC, IEMG, IVE, IVW, IWM, IYZ, QQQ, SPY, VXUS, XLB, XLC, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLP, XLRE, XLU, XLV, XLY | diversification, Dollar, international, IPOs, technology, Trade Policy, volatility | The manager emphasizes that volatility is the price of admission for superior long-term returns, citing the April market decline and subsequent recovery. During extreme volatility periods like Liberation Day, investors should avoid converting temporary losses into permanent ones by selling. | View | |
| 2024 Q2 | Apr 22, 2024 | Rodrigo Benedetti | - | - | AMC, ASML, AX, CIEN, CLS, COHR, CRH, FCNCA, GME, MBIN, MRX, PFBC, PSTG, QQQ, SPY, TBBK, V | Europe, financials, Long/Short, semiconductors, small caps, value | Manager sees value in financials including traditional banks like MBIN, FCNCA, PFBC and TBBK. There is fear about commercial real estate and credit quality, but the manager believes the Treasury curve cannot get more inverted, which should lead to margin stabilization and improvement for banks. Focus on banks that have suffered from equity raises or bear reports. | View | |
| 2024 Q1 | Apr 19, 2024 | Andvari Associates | 0.0% | 20.3% | AMT, BUD, CSGP, IWM, MA, MO, SPY, WEA | dividends, Quality, rates, real estate, Tobacco, value | CoStar Group is investing $1 billion into Homes.com to compete against Zillow in residential real estate. The National Association of Realtors settlement could provide a tailwind by changing commission structures that favor Homes.com's seller-focused business model over buyer-focused portals. | MO WEA CSGP KPG.AX |
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| 2024 Q1 | Apr 16, 2024 | Resilient Asset Management | - | - | SPY | Cash, diversification, international, Performance, value | Manager emphasizes basic cyber defense practices including password managers, multi-factor authentication, and avoiding spurious email links as primary defenses against cybercriminals who continue to prey on the unprepared despite technological advances. | View | |
| 2024 Q1 | Apr 15, 2024 | Weitz Partners III Opportunity Fund | 9.1% | 14.1% | AAPL, AMZN, BRK-B, CCRD, CHTR, FIS, GOOG, GS, LBRDA, LBTYK, META, MKL, MSFT, PRM, SPY | Broadband, Long/Short, Magnificent Seven, multi-cap, technology, value | The fund focuses on valuation-driven investment decisions, trimming positions like Meta Platforms, Microsoft and Amazon based on valuation considerations. The managers emphasize their multi-cap approach to finding undervalued businesses across all market capitalizations. | View | |
| 2025 Q1 | Apr 10, 2025 | Skybound Wealth Management | - | - | FBTC, IEMG, IVE, IVW, IWM, IYZ, QQQ, SPY, VXUS, XLB, XLC, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLP, XLRE, XLU, XLV, XLY | Capital markets, diversification, Dollar, Recovery, tariffs, Trade Policy, volatility | Market experienced extreme volatility in April with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 dropping 11% from March 31st to April 8th triggered by Trump's reciprocal tariffs announcement. VIX reached approximately 60 intraday during the Liberation Day sell-off, the highest reading since March 2020. Despite the volatility, markets recovered strongly with V-shaped recovery patterns. | View | |
| 2024 Q1 | Mar 26, 2024 | Crescat Capital – Global Macro Hedge Fund | - | - | QQQ, SPY | Activist, Megacap Tech, Mining, Precious Metals, Short Selling | Long activist mining positions in precious metals represent the largest thematic exposure firmwide and have been the primary driver of strong performance year-to-date across all funds. The manager believes it is still very early in a new bull market for precious metals mining stocks, which remain historically undervalued. | View | |
| 2024 Q4 | Feb 6, 2025 | Quercus Fund | - | 35.8% | 0700.HK, ACWI, SPY, UMG.AS | Concentration, Conglomerates, global, Media, Spin-Offs, value | Detailed discussion of Vivendi's split into four independent listed entities including Universal Music Group, Canal+, Havas, and Louis Hachette Group. The manager notes that despite expectations for re-rating post-split, the newly listed companies are trading at lower levels than before the spin-offs. | View | |
| 2024 Q4 | Feb 10, 2025 | Cedar Creek Partners | 0.4% | 5.2% | DIA, IQV, RTX, SPY | Banking, Buybacks, defense, dividends, Expert Market, Microcap, OTC, value | Solitron Devices received record bookings of $8 million in Q3, driven by HIMARS and AMRAAM programs. Production capacity for HIMARS doubled to 96 units in 2024 and is running at maximum capacity due to Ukraine demand. AMRAAM production increased 50% to 1,200 missiles annually with over 3,300 foreign orders in the past 12-15 months. | View | |
| 2025 Q3 | Nov 5, 2025 | Kingdom Capital Advisors | - | - | EEM, EFA, IJR, IVE, IXUS, QQQ, QUAL, RSP, SPHB, SPY, USMV, VIG, VTI | Bull Market, earnings, Equal Weight, Fed policy, growth, large cap | Growth dominance theme continues with S&P 500 Market Cap outperforming Equal Weight by approximately 3.5x over the last year. The S&P 500 outperformed Equal Weight by approximately 12% per year in 2023 and 2024, representing the most dominant streak since 1998-1999. | View | |
| 2024 Q3 | Nov 2, 2024 | Alta Fox Capital Management | 4.2% | 12.5% | APP, IWM, REVG, SPY | industrials, small caps, technology, value, volatility | Alta Fox focuses on high-quality and underfollowed small-cap businesses at attractive valuations. The manager notes increasing extreme price volatility in small caps as an opportunity to capitalize on their diligent research process. They see the convergence of attractively priced small-cap assets and a diminishing competitive landscape as fueling their excitement. | REVG APP |
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| 2024 Q3 | Oct 9, 2024 | Stonehearth Capital Management | - | - | AOR, BND, SPY, VEA, VWO | Diversified, Elections, ETFs, Fed policy, Recession, risk management, Technical Analysis | The firm employs a comprehensive hedging protocol using 49 different indicators to monitor market risk and determine appropriate portfolio positioning. Their flagship risk model moved from neutral to bullish during the quarter, supporting their overweight stock exposure. | View | |
| 2024 Q3 | Oct 22, 2024 | Quercus Fund | 0.0% | 35.3% | 0142.HK, 0743.HK, ACWI, SPY | China, Concentration, dividends, Hong Kong, Patience, value | Manager emphasizes buying stocks trading at significant discounts to intrinsic value, with portfolio estimated at 4x market prices. Describes positions as wildly mispriced with high opportunity cost for new ideas. Focus on getting more for less through patient value realization. | View | |
| 2025 Q3 | Oct 21, 2025 | BNY Mellon Core Plus Fund | 2.8% | 6.0% | SPY | Bonds, credit, duration, Fed, fixed income, rates, Yield | The Federal Reserve delivered a 25bp rate cut to 4%-4.25% range, marking the first cut since December. The Fed's dot plot reflected two additional rate cuts by year-end. US fixed income offers value particularly at the front of the curve with rate cuts now back on the Fed's agenda. | View | |
| 2024 Q3 | Oct 11, 2024 | Leaven Partners | -1.4% | 7.9% | DBO, QQQ, SPY | Currency, Hedging, Japan, risk management, valuation, volatility | The fund experienced significant volatility during the quarter, particularly from the August 5th Nikkei crash that dropped 12% in one day. The manager discusses how choppy markets with big moves down followed by quick reversals create challenging conditions for hedging strategies. | View | |
| 2025 Q4 | Jan 9, 2026 | Mountain Vista Wealth Management | 0.0% | 0.0% | AGG, DBB, EMB, ETHA, FBTC, GLD, IVE, IVW, IWM, JNK, QQQ, SPY, TLT, USO, VXUS, XLK, XLP, XLRE, XLU, XLV | AI, Bitcoin, Economic Outlook, ETFs, Federal Reserve, gold, inflation, Market Commentary | A key question for 2026 is whether AI investments will translate into measurable productivity gains and margin expansion beyond the technology sector. The downside scenario involves a reassessment of AI and data center ROI which could trigger sharp corrections in high-flying growth stocks. Companies are investing in technology that allows them to make their existing workforce more productive, representing an AI-driven productivity boom. Inflation remains persistently above the Federal Reserve's 2% target for the fifth consecutive year, though showing signs of cooling on many fronts. Tariffs have pushed up goods prices, causing inflation to remain elevated. The psychological scars of 2021/22 inflation remain despite real wage growth trending up since Q3 2022. The FOMC delivered a 25 basis point rate cut to 3.50-3.75% range with significant division among policymakers. High interest rates and persistently high prices have pushed monthly payments up at a shocking rate relative to income growth. The Fed announced it would begin purchasing shorter-term Treasury securities to maintain ample reserves. Gold delivered exceptional gains consistently as investors sought assets tied to real scarcity and low correlation to financial assets. Persistent geopolitical risk, elevated fiscal deficits, and gradual erosion of confidence in fiat currencies supported sustained inflows. Central banks continued to be net buyers, with gold posting an extraordinary 63.7% annual return. Bitcoin exhibited far greater volatility and a different return profile than gold, experiencing powerful rallies earlier in the year but proving fragile as risk appetite faded. The sharp drawdown in Q4 highlighted Bitcoin's sensitivity to speculative positioning and leverage. Rather than behaving as a defensive hedge, Bitcoin traded more like a high-beta risk asset. | View | |
| 2025 Q4 | Jan 9, 2026 | QuadCap Wealth Management | 0.0% | 0.0% | AGG, DIA, EEM, EFA, HYG, IWD, IWF, IWM, IWN, IWO, IWP, IWR, IWS, LQD, MUB, QQQ, SPY, XLB, XLC, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLP, XLRE, XLU, XLV, XLY | AI, Economic Data, Fed policy, Government Shutdown, Market Leadership | Artificial intelligence remained a key investment theme in Q4, but the narrative matured as investors became more selective. The market shifted focus from headline growth to AI economics, questioning capital requirements for data centers and whether companies could maintain spending pace without pressuring cash flow. Companies involved in large-scale AI projects faced increased scrutiny, especially where spending plans outpaced near-term cash flow. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by -0.50% in Q4 but signaled a pause, emphasizing future cuts will depend on incoming data. Officials appeared divided between those warning policy remains too restrictive and others cautioning against cutting too soon and reigniting inflation. The shutdown data fog made Fed policy a source of near-term uncertainty and market volatility. | View | |
| 2025 Q4 | Jan 8, 2026 | Advisory Research – Global Select Dividend | 0.0% | 0.0% | IEV, SPY | AI, Deregulation, Europe, Fiscal, global, inflation, nuclear, oil | Manager believes 2026 will be the year AI efforts become less speculative and more focused on real-world applications. Views generative AI as the general-purpose technology of our era, possessing unique ability to improve over time and serve as a platform for new innovations. Expects AI efforts to become more practical and productive by second half of 2026. European equities nearly doubled SPY performance in 2025, returning +31.4% versus +17.7% for US. Europe has become a story of breadth with 8 of 11 sectors outpacing S&P 500. Fundamental paradigm shift in Germany abandoning fiscal austerity for fiscal excess, targeting defense and infrastructure spending. Manager expects inflation to remain well anchored in all regions except the US where consumers with extra cash could drive inflation higher. Combination of refunds and lower withholdings will frontload benefits into 2026. US inflation may get stickier as economy reaccelerates and government stimulates struggling low-income consumers. AI race catalyzes nuclear fusion research with at least three private-sector companies expected to achieve Net Energy Gain milestone. One company expected to reach Sustained High-Power Density Operation viable for fusion power plant by late 2026. Oil prices expected to climb into $60-70 per barrel range by Q4 2026 as demand drivers exhibit firmer underlying consumption amid more constrained supply growth than widely assumed by market that believes oil is oversupplied. Red tape expected to be cut at pace across Financial Services, AI/Tech Services and Energy sectors under guise of National Security to prop up economic growth before midterms. Great Financial Crisis capital requirements expected to be watered down, benefitting banks the most. | View | |
| 2025 Q4 | Jan 6, 2026 | Financial Synergies Wealth Advisors | 0.0% | 0.0% | AGG, DIA, EEM, EFA, HYG, IWD, IWF, IWM, IWN, IWO, IWP, IWR, IWS, LQD, MUB, QQQ, SPY, XLB, XLC, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLP, XLRE, XLU, XLV, XLY | AI, Economy, Fed policy, interest rates, Markets, outlook, technology, volatility | Artificial intelligence remained a key investment theme in Q4, but the narrative matured as investors became more selective. The market shifted focus from broad enthusiasm to companies demonstrating pricing power and a path to profitability rather than growth at any cost. Questions emerged about capital requirements for data centers and whether companies could maintain aggressive capex spending without pressuring cash flow. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.50% in Q4 but signaled a pause, hinting it could cut less than the market expects in 2026. Fed officials appeared divided with some warning policy remains too restrictive while others caution cutting too soon could reignite inflation. The government shutdown delayed key economic data, making Fed policy a source of near-term uncertainty and market volatility. | View | |
| 2024 Q4 | Jan 5, 2025 | CDT Capital Management | 0.0% | 0.0% | AAPL, SPY, T, TSLA | AI, Concentration, ETFs, Insider Trading, risk management, Valuations, value | Manager views AI as transformative technology but believes market expectations have become unhinged, creating spectacular valuations for Mag 7 companies. While AI will change the world, the math doesn't support current stock prices, particularly for Apple which lacks a robust AI platform. | View | |
| 2025 Q4 | Jan 30, 2026 | Star Magnolia Capital Limited | - | - | 0700.HK, BRK-A, CVNA, KMX, SPY | Asia, Compounding, Europe, Geographic Diversification, long-term, manager selection, Relationships | The letter emphasizes the importance of long-term investing and staying invested despite volatility. The manager discusses how distance from markets and structural design matter more than temperament for successful long-term investing. Examples include Berkshire Hathaway shareholders who stayed invested for decades and achieved compounding returns. The firm focuses on building long-term relationships with investment managers rather than transactional approaches. They maintain relationships averaging 7.1 years with current managers and emphasize investing in people rather than just businesses. The letter details their process for both building and terminating manager relationships. The firm is increasing exposure to Asian markets as part of geographic diversification away from Americas where valuations are viewed as frothy. The team conducted extensive travel across China, Indonesia, and other Asian markets for research and relationship building. The firm is expanding European relationships and published research on European shareholder activism. They view Europe as an attractive alternative to expensive American markets and are building manager relationships in the region. | View | |
| 2025 Q4 | Jan 28, 2026 | Rodrigo Benedetti | 0.0% | 0.0% | ARKK, CLS, KITS.TO, MSFT, NBIS, ORCL, QQQ, QURE, REGN, SLNO, SPY, STRL, TEVA, TGEN, TSSI, TWST, VRT, XOP | AI, Biotechnology, commodities, Fintech, gold, healthcare, oil | Manager observes precious metals experiencing massive bubble-like moves with gold and silver going through blow-off tops. Believes there is no fundamental reason for this rally and compares moves to the 1970s when US abandoned gold standard. AI companies, particularly neoclouds, corrected 50% but are showing signs of life again. Manager previously shorted low quality AI names trading on high multiples but closed positions when momentum couldn't be fought. Oil equities have diverged from oil prices with E&P, OFS and Majors underperforming. Manager notes well-supplied market and Chinese demand reduction while they add to strategic reserves. Mixed results in biotech with FDA walking back QURE approval after mixed data causing roundtrip of profits. Healthcare sector performed well with TEVA and REGN benefiting from immunity to tariffs and AI disruption. Excited about Figure Technologies at crossroads of blockchain and electronic HELOC securitization. Company provides bridge for stablecoin yield investment and operates marketplace for on-chain loan investment with fraud-resistant electronic system. | EMO CN KITS CN |
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| 2025 Q4 | Jan 23, 2026 | Grey Owl Capital | 2.4% | 0.0% | ACWI, GLD, GSG, IWM, MAGS, SPY, TLT | commodities, Cyclical, diversification, gold, growth, inflation, risk management, small caps | Small-capitalization equities are significantly outperforming, up 7.6% year-to-date through January 23, 2026, as market leadership expands beyond mega-cap technology. The manager has increased exposure to US small-cap equities, believing conditions now favor cyclical outperformance and broadening equity participation. Commodities are outperforming with 7.4% year-to-date gains through January 23, 2026, supported by accelerating economic growth. The portfolio has added to commodities exposure as part of positioning for meaningful economic growth and cyclical outperformance. Gold delivered exceptional performance with 63.7% gains for full year 2025 and continued strength with 11.5% gains in Q4 2025. The manager has expanded precious metals exposure as part of the all-season framework positioning. Economic growth is accelerating according to Hedgeye's real GDP projection model, gaining significant momentum in Q1 and continuing through much of Q2 2026. This growth acceleration historically supports risk assets, particularly cyclical equities and commodities. | View | |
| 2025 Q4 | Jan 22, 2026 | Crescat Capital – Global Macro Hedge Fund | 0.0% | 0.0% | QQQ, SPY, XAU | commodities, global, Hedge Funds, inflation, Macro, Mining, Performance, Precious Metals | Crescat's activist metals strategy focuses on precious and critical metals mining, believing it is still early in the macro cycle for mining stocks with strong value and high future growth potential in premier explorers and developers. The firm sees many years of favorable tailwinds for mining stocks with a backdrop of unsustainable global debt and deficits. Crescat positions for an inflationary decade, with models pointing toward long-term structural inflation and a declining US dollar. This environment favors hard assets, foreign equity exposure, and selective industries as necessary inflation accompanies unsustainable global debt and deficits. Demand for metals has been skyrocketing from data centers among other factors, contributing to structural global metals shortage after more than a decade of underinvestment in exploration and development. | View | |
| 2025 Q4 | Jan 21, 2026 | Cedar Creek Partners | 2.4% | 29.6% | ENDI, MCBS, SLBK, SODI, SPY | Community Banks, defense, Expert Market, Microcap, Natural Gas, OTC, value | Manager added major position in Exco Resources, an independent oil and gas company focused on onshore US shale development with 90% natural gas production. Production increased significantly from 22 Bcfe in March to 36 Bcfe in September 2025, with capex budget increasing from $185 million in 2025 to $430 million in 2026. At current two-year strip pricing of $3.75 per mcf, Exco could generate substantial cash flows. Fund allocated 20% to community banks trading at attractive valuations below six times earnings. Manager believes these modestly growing banks should trade at higher valuations and would be attractive acquisition candidates. ECIP banks are expected to screen better once they can repurchase outstanding preferred stock at deep discounts. Solitron Devices, where the manager serves as CEO, saw material uptick in defense orders beginning November 2024. Large orders included HIMARS components from L3Harris and AMRAAM components from RTX, with November 2025 bookings reaching highest ever at $13.9 million. Backlog exceeded $27 million, positioning for improved revenue and earnings. | SLBK ENDI SODI EXCE FLFG PHIG MCBS |
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| 2023 Q1 | Jan 20, 2023 | Quercus Fund | - | - | 067280.KS, 1652.HK, 603002.SS, ODET.PA, SPY | China, Concentration, Cyclical, Petrochemicals, undervalued, value | The fund focuses on finding extremely undervalued companies with wide margins of safety to prevent permanent losses of capital. The manager emphasizes buying at prices well below intrinsic value, citing Joel Greenblatt's principle of figuring out value and paying a lot less. | 1652.HK |
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| 2025 Q4 | Jan 19, 2026 | Leaven Partners | 4.2% | 41.0% | EFA, HD, HEFA, SPY, VT | Currency, Hedging, Japan, risk management, volatility | The manager extensively discusses currency hedging strategy for Japanese yen exposure, explaining how foreign stock ownership creates inherent currency risk. They employ a systematic trend-following approach to currency hedging rather than fundamental valuation models, aiming to reduce short-term volatility while capturing positive carry from interest rate differentials. | View | |
| 2024 Q4 | Jan 19, 2025 | Unconventional Value | - | 73.2% | PGY, PL, QQQ, SPIR, SPY, UPST, XMTR | Data, growth, small caps, SPACs, technology, value | Manager has decent concentration in busted SPACs - companies that went public at too high valuations and have been left for dead. Some entities might possess solid business models, good leadership, and promising prospects; it will just take longer than expected to justify exorbitant valuations. | View | |
| 2024 Q4 | Jan 17, 2025 | The Compounding Tortoise | - | 18.6% | AOR, BND, SPY, VEA, VWO | asset allocation, Elections, ETFs, Fed policy, risk management | View | ||
| 2025 Q4 | Jan 15, 2026 | Anchor Capital Advisors | 0.0% | 0.0% | IWM, SPY | AI, defense, earnings, equities, global, infrastructure, monetary policy, Trade Policy | AI has emerged as a multi-year infrastructure investment requiring significant investment across data-center infrastructure and power generation. Of the nearly US$3 trillion in data center–related capital expenditure expected through 2030, less than 20% has been deployed, leaving an estimated US$1.5 trillion financing gap. AI-driven productivity gains continue to underpin earnings durability. U.S. trade policy was a central source of volatility during the year, contributing to disruptions in global trade flows and an early-year equity correction. Global trade dynamics reflected a shift toward regionalization, supply-chain realignment, and strategic autonomy across major economies. Ongoing sources of upward price pressure include tariffs. Europe grappled with rising security commitments, with Germany's approximately €500 billion in multi-year fiscal and defense initiatives representing a meaningful shift in Europe's policy stance. This coincides with a broader increase in defense and security spending as the Russia–Ukraine war enters its fourth year. Globally, expanding defense, climate, and social spending is contributing to larger fiscal deficits and rising sovereign debt issuance. Capital-intensive investment cycles are emerging, with AI requiring significant investment across data-center infrastructure and power generation, increasingly financed through infrastructure funds and private capital vehicles. Approximately 79% of the S&P 500's return was attributable to earnings growth rather than valuation expansion—a notable contrast with prior years. Earnings and fundamentals are increasingly driving equity performance and broader market participation. Strong margins, free cash flow generation, and AI-driven productivity gains continue to underpin earnings durability. | View | |
| 2025 Q4 | Jan 14, 2026 | HORAN Capital Advisors | 0.0% | 0.0% | ACWX, EEM, EFA, GOOGL, META, NFLX, SPY | AI, consumer, Dollar, earnings, Fed policy, international, technology | AI remains the dominant investment theme for 2025, with the Magnificent 7 stocks accounting for 42% of S&P 500 returns. Technology-related stocks dominated the top 10 performers, though concentration in large tech companies may face challenges as the economy evolves and other market areas become attractive. Earnings growth becomes increasingly important as stocks trade at higher valuations. Analyst expectations are for S&P 500 earnings to grow 15.6% in 2026, following 13.3% growth in 2025 and 12.1% in 2024. Strong earnings growth could drive positive stock returns despite elevated P/E multiples. The U.S. Dollar declined about 10% in 2025, contributing approximately one-third of international returns for U.S. investors. Dollar weakness could persist in 2026 due to budget deficits requiring more debt issuance and a dovish Federal Reserve policy stance. | View | |
| 2024 Q3 | Sep 30, 2024 | Weitz Partners III Opportunity Fund | 9.1% | 14.1% | AMZN, AON, BRK-A, FIS, GOOGL, GPN, IEX, KMX, LBRDA, LBTYA, LH, LYV, META, MSFT, NVDA, PRM, SIRI, SPY, TMO | Broadband, Long/Short, Quality, Rate Cuts, technology, value | The fund focuses on owning high quality businesses trading at discounts to intrinsic value. Liberty Broadband traded at a significant discount to its Charter stake value, and SiriusXM Holdings appears undervalued with investors overly pessimistic about future cash flows at current prices. | View | |
| 2024 Q2 | Jul 29, 2024 | Grey Owl Capital | 3.4% | 8.6% | ACWI, GLD, GSG, SPY, TLT | All-Season, gold, India, inflation, Multi-Asset, PMI, volatility | Gold was the best performing primary asset class in Q2 2024, up 7.6%. The forward-gold price continues to point toward increasing inflation over the longer term, suggesting gold's monetary component remains attractive as an inflation hedge. | View | |
| 2024 Q2 | Jul 27, 2024 | Horizon Kinetics | 0.0% | 0.0% | AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, HAL, LB, META, MSFT, NVDA, SLB, SPY, TPL, TSLA, WPM | AI, China, commodities, energy, geopolitics, Indexation, inflation, technology | AI technology represents a massive growth opportunity but faces critical infrastructure constraints, particularly electric power requirements. The H100 AI chips alone might require 0.5% of total U.S. electricity production, with next-generation chips requiring even more power. This creates both challenges for AI companies and opportunities for energy infrastructure providers. | LB |
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| 2024 Q2 | Jul 25, 2024 | Kinsman Oak | 0.0% | 0.0% | AMC, CHWY, CIGI, GME, NKE, NVDA, SPW, SPY | AI, interest rates, momentum, Rotation, small caps, technology, valuation | The AI trade dominated the first half of 2024, with NVIDIA contributing disproportionately to index gains. The manager questions whether AI will truly benefit large incumbents or if small disruptors will eventually upend established business models, as has historically occurred with revolutionary technological innovations. | View | |
| 2025 Q1 | Apr 15, 2025 | Cedar Creek Partners | 8.7% | 8.7% | IQV, MCBS, SLRC, SPY | Community Banks, defense, dividends, Expert Market, Microcap, OTC, value | Cedar Creek focuses primarily on microcap stocks and over-the-counter stocks, with fund holdings trading at attractive valuations of 8.0 times forward earnings and 6.6 times earnings net of cash. The fund significantly outperformed small cap indices in Q1, with expert market exposure at 35% of the fund generating strong returns. | View | |
| 2023 Q4 | Jan 27, 2024 | Weitz Partners III Opportunity Fund | 9.1% | 14.1% | AMZN, BRK-B, CCRD, CHTR, CSGP, FIS, GOOG, GPN, GS, KMX, LBRDA, LSXMK, META, MKL, MSFT, PRM, QRTEP, ROP, SCHW, SIRI, SPY, V | large cap, Long/Short, Media, payments, technology, value | The fund initiated a new position in Global Payments, a leading provider of payments acceptance services with roughly four million merchant locations worldwide. Despite increased competition in the payments landscape, the managers believe Global Payments is more durable than feared and trades at a compelling valuation. | CGPN.L LBRDA 4IMPRINT CCRD |
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| 2024 Q4 | Jan 24, 2025 | Grey Owl Capital | -1.6% | 6.7% | ACWI, GLD, GSG, SPY, TLT | commodities, Dollar, growth, inflation, rates, volatility | Manager expects inflation to reaccelerate through first half of 2025, moving from stagflation to quasi-stagflation. 5-Year Breakeven rates point higher though the early fall spike has receded, and monthly inflation nowcast forecasts continued higher consumer price inflation through January. | View |
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