| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 11.6% | -0.4% | -0.4% |
Crescat Capital warns that US equity markets have reached historic bubble territory, with total market cap to GDP at 228%, far exceeding 2000 Internet boom levels. The firm identifies three simultaneous catalysts for potential market crash: inflation driven by Iran war oil supply shocks and metals supply constraints, corporate destruction from AI malinvestment paralleling the 2001 tech bust, and aggressive monetary tightening under incoming Fed chair Kevin Warsh. Despite recent market rallies on Iran peace hopes, Crescat views this as irrational exuberance ignoring persistent risks. The firm maintains its largest exposure in precious metals mining stocks, particularly smaller cap exploration companies, as the optimal countercyclical hedge. They are short US equities through put options and short the dollar via yen positions. Crescat expects the coming decade to resemble the 1970s inflationary environment with elements of Depression-era and tech bust dynamics, where gold miners dramatically outperformed crashing equity markets. The current risk-reward setup represents the highest crash probability they have observed.
US equity markets are in historic bubble territory with three simultaneous catalysts poised to trigger a major crash: inflation from supply shocks, AI malinvestment bust, and aggressive monetary tightening, making precious metals miners the optimal hedge.
Crescat expects the decade ahead to most closely resemble the 1970s macro environment, with elements of the Great Depression and early 2000s tech bust. They anticipate supply-constrained inflationary pressures will dominate, creating an environment where gold miners dramatically outperform while broad stock markets crash. The firm sees the current setup as offering the highest risk of stock market meltdown they have ever observed.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 27 2026 | 2026 Q1 | GDX, GDXJ | AI Bubble, Dollar, Gold Miners, inflation, Macro, Market Crash, oil | - | Crescat warns US markets are in historic bubble territory with three crash catalysts converging: Iran war inflation, AI malinvestment bust, and Fed tightening. Despite recent rallies, they maintain maximum conviction in precious metals miners as the optimal hedge, expecting 1970s-style stagflation where gold dramatically outperforms crashing equities. |
| Oct 11 2025 | 2025 Q3 | MSTR | Bubble, Dollar, gold, inflation, Rotation, Stagflation, Valuations | - | Crescat warns US equity valuations exceed 2000 bubble levels by 270% while stagflationary pressures build and dollar weakness accelerates. They position for a Great Rotation from overvalued mega-cap tech into gold miners, which offer superior growth and valuations. Market breadth deteriorates and speculative complacency suggests a critical turning point approaching. |
| Jul 24 2025 | 2025 Q2 | MP | activism, Bubble, discovery, Exploration, Metals, Mining, Trump Policy, value | - | Crescat's activist metals strategy delivered top-decile hedge fund performance in 2025, leveraging 75 mining positions with 38 discoveries already made. Trump's mining policy revolution provides unprecedented tailwinds while broader markets face historic bubble valuations. The firm positions early-stage discovery plays against overvalued tech, expecting mining's decade-long cycle upturn to drive significant value creation. |
| Apr 26 2025 | 2025 Q1 | ^GSPC, ^NDX | Activist, gold, Macro, Megacap Tech, Mining, Precious Metals, Short Selling | - | Crescat Capital's top-10 hedge fund performance in Q1 2025 reflects their macro regime change thesis under Trump policies. Long activist precious metals mining positions drive performance as the early bull market unfolds, while short megacap tech exposure via put options capitalizes on overvaluation. The strategy positions for US industrial restoration and global trade reset. |
| Feb 1 2025 | 2024 Q4 | AAPL, MSFT, NVDA | AI, Bubbles, Dollar, gold, liquidity, Metals, tariffs, technology | - | Crescat sees US megacap tech in an unsustainable bubble exceeding 2000 levels, with catalysts including China's DeepSeek AI breakthrough and potential tariff shocks. The firm's largest exposure is activist metals positioning for countercyclical upside, while maintaining significant shorts on indices and tech stocks as structural macro imbalances force rebalancing toward international markets and hard assets. |
| Nov 7 2024 | 2024 Q3 | ABX, HM | AI, Bear Market, commodities, countercyclical, gold, Mining, technology, valuation | - | Gold mining stocks offer extraordinary countercyclical opportunity at deeply undervalued levels while US markets trade at bubble-like valuations exceeding 1929 and 2000 peaks. TSX-V exploration proxy down 83% from highs creates catch-up potential in emerging precious metals bull market. Years of mining underinvestment drive structural commodity supply shortages supporting multi-year price appreciation cycle. |
| Jul 27 2024 | 2024 Q2 | GDX | commodities, Debt, Dollar, gold, Mining, rates, volatility | - | Crescat expects significant US dollar depreciation driven by unsustainable debt service costs forcing multiple Fed rate cuts. The firm positions for this macro regime change through precious metals, mining companies, and natural resource assets while viewing current US equity valuations as critically overextended. Gold and silver offer asymmetric upside as institutional investors remain underallocated to commodities. |
| Mar 26 2024 | 2024 Q1 | QQQ, SPY | Activist, Megacap Tech, Mining, Precious Metals, Short Selling | - | Crescat Capital's top-10 hedge fund performance is driven by concentrated long positions in undervalued precious metals miners and short exposure to overvalued megacap tech stocks. The firm believes precious metals are early in a new bull market while technology remains expensive, positioning for continued outperformance as macro themes play out under Trump administration policies. |
| Jan 14 2024 | 2023 Q4 | AAPL, MSFT | AI, commodities, emerging markets, gold, inflation, Mining, rates, technology | - | Crescat Capital argues US stocks are historically overvalued while South American markets offer exceptional value. Their Global Macro Fund holds 37% in South American mining companies and shorts overvalued US markets. They anticipate a commodity supercycle driven by inflation resurgence and central bank easing, expecting significant outperformance from precious metals and emerging markets in 2024. |
| Sep 10 2023 | 2023 Q3 | NEE | gold, inflation, Macro, Mining, Stagflation, technology, Utilities | - | Crescat delivered strong September gains while markets fell, positioning for a stagflationary recession similar to 1973-74. The fund shorts overvalued mega-cap technology and financials while going long distressed precious metals and mining companies, expecting commodities to enter a secular bull market as large-cap growth stocks face significant sell-offs from higher rates and inflation. |
| Jul 21 2023 | 2023 Q2 | NVDA | Biotechnology, Brazil, commodities, fiscal policy, gold, inflation, monetary policy | - | Crescat sees unsustainable monetary-fiscal divergence forcing eventual Fed accommodation of massive debt issuance, but expects recession first. Positioned short overvalued assets, long gold as debt crisis escape valve, and long commodities for secular boom. Heavy exposure to mining exploration companies and undervalued biotechnology. Views current environment as extraordinary macro setup favoring hard assets over financial assets. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 |
Gold MinersCrescat maintains their largest long exposure across all funds in precious metals mining stocks, particularly smaller cap miners with exploration and development projects. They view these as the best countercyclical hedge for the current macro environment dominated by supply-constrained inflationary pressures. The firm remains highly convicted despite March corrections from overbought conditions. |
Gold Mining Precious Metals Exploration Development |
AICrescat views AI as a potential catalyst for market crash, describing it as corporate cash flow and profit destruction from AI malinvestment. They draw parallels to the Internet capex spending frenzy that drove the 2001 tech bust, suggesting AI represents a bubble similar to historical manias. |
Technology Bubble Malinvestment Capex | |
OilThe firm identifies an oil supply shock caused by the Iran war as one of three catalysts that could cause a market crash. They note WTI and Brent Crude are still up over 40% compared to before the conflict began, despite ongoing peace talks and market optimism about resolution. |
Energy Supply Shock Geopolitics Iran | |
InflationCrescat sees inflation as a major catalyst driven by oil supply shocks and metals supply cliff due to years of underinvestment in mining exploration and development. They expect the current macro environment to be dominated by supply-constrained inflationary pressures, comparing the outlook to the 1970s decade. |
Monetary Policy Supply Constraints Commodities | |
DollarThe firm is short the US dollar in their macro funds, with long gold through cheap mining stocks as their favorite way to short the dollar. They also maintain short dollar/long Japanese yen positions, noting the Trump administration favors a weak dollar to reindustrialize the country. |
Currency Yen Monetary Policy | |
| 2025 Q3 |
GoldLarge cap gold miners are substantially outperforming the Magnificent 9 AI stocks this year and represent some of the strongest scoring stocks in their multi-factor equity model. These companies offer both lower valuations and higher current growth rates than big tech stocks, making them attractive for the expected Great Rotation out of mega-cap tech. |
Gold Miners Valuations Growth Outperformance Rotation |
InflationSigns of stagflation are emerging with commodities up double digits over the past year while services inflation continues to firm. The ISM Services report shows prices paid approaching 70 while employment has fallen below 50, highlighting the Fed's policy trap with surging input costs amid weakening labor demand. |
Stagflation Commodities Services Fed Policy Labor | |
DollarThe US dollar has posted its weakest annual performance since the 1970s, marking what appears to be the early stages of a secular decline. This structural shift could reshape global financial conditions as the US faces extreme valuations relative to global counterparts and deepening fiscal and trade deficits that require a weaker dollar to resolve. |
Dollar Decline Secular Trend Fiscal Deficits Global Rebalancing Currency | |
ValuationsUS equity valuations have reached extreme levels with the top 10 mega-cap stocks valued 270% higher than at the 2000 tech bubble peak. The Warren Buffett indicator and Shiller's cyclically adjusted P/E are at levels far exceeding the dot-com era, suggesting the market has drifted into rarefied territory detached from fundamentals. |
Bubble Mega-caps P/E Ratios Tech Stocks Fundamentals | |
CryptoThe cryptocurrency market serves as a leading signal for speculative sentiment, with the erosion of the Saylor premium (Strategy Inc. outperformance versus Bitcoin) showing high correlation with the S&P 500. This divergence signals that the highest-beta corners of the market are beginning to quietly de-risk ahead of a broader equity unwind. |
Bitcoin Speculation Strategy Inc De-risk Beta | |
| 2025 Q2 |
Gold MinersCrescat has built large activist stakes in small- and micro-cap mining companies with prospective claims across viable jurisdictions. The firm has helped portfolio companies complete more greenfield drilling over five years than all major publicly traded gold mining companies combined, resulting in 38 companies making bona fide discoveries including Snowline Gold, Sitka Gold, Goliath Resources, and others. |
Discovery Exploration Activist Greenfield Drilling |
Critical MineralsThe Trump Administration's executive order broadened the definition of critical minerals to include copper, uranium, potash, and gold, positioning mineral production as a national security imperative. This policy shift represents the biggest tailwind for US mining in decades, with fast-tracked permitting and Defense Production Act financing for key projects. |
National Security Onshoring Policy Permitting Defense | |
CopperPortfolio includes primary copper discoveries at Falcon Butte, BCM Resources, Brixton Metals, and Intrepid Metals. The firm is particularly excited about prospects for new copper discoveries at BCM Resources, CopperCorp Resources, and Aztec Minerals in current and upcoming drill seasons. |
Discovery Exploration Base Metals Industrial Infrastructure | |
SilverSilver and zinc discoveries in the portfolio include San Cristobal Mining, Eloro Resources, Alaska Silver, Silver Bow Mining, Cantex Mine Development, Silver47, Barksdale Resources, and Kuya Silver. The firm views precious metals mining stocks as positioned to deliver when current investment bubbles burst. |
Precious Metals Discovery Exploration Countercyclical Value | |
| 2025 Q1 |
Gold MinersLong activist mining positions in precious metals represent the largest thematic exposure firmwide and have been the primary driver of strong performance year-to-date. The manager believes it is still very early in a new bull market for precious metals mining stocks, which remain historically undervalued. |
Gold Mining Precious Metals Activist Undervalued |
Critical MineralsThe fund maintains long activist mining positions in critical metals as part of their largest thematic exposure. These positions align with the strategic goal of restoring US materials and industrial sectors under the Trump administration's policies. |
Critical Minerals Mining Materials Industrial Activist | |
| 2024 Q4 |
GoldCrescat's activist metals portfolio is the largest thematic long exposure across all private funds, focused on deeply undervalued gold miners with potential for substantial countercyclical upside. The fund expects continued higher gold prices in the near-to-intermediate term under Pozsar's vision for gold in the new Bretton Woods monetary order. |
Gold Miners Precious Metals Bretton Woods Countercyclical Undervalued |
AIThe letter discusses threats to Nvidia's AI dominance from China's open-source DeepSeek R1 and US company Cerebras with innovative wafer-scale chips. Competition from VC-funded startups and open-source AI innovation threatens the high-margin monopolistic business models of US tech giants. |
Semiconductors Open Source Competition Innovation Disruption | |
DollarCrescat contends the US dollar is approaching a cyclical peak with long-term decline evident on a 10-year rolling basis. The interplay of declining fiscal stimulus and structurally lower interest rates is poised to serve as the primary catalyst for dollar depreciation in 2025. |
Currency Depreciation Cyclical Peak Reserve Currency Devaluation | |
Trade PolicyTrump/Bessent tariffs threaten trade, corporate profitability, and the overvalued US stock market. The letter references the 1929 stock market collapse that began when news spread that the Smoot Hawley Tariff Bill would become law. |
Tariffs Trade War Corporate Profitability Market Risk Historical Parallel | |
LiquidityMultiple liquidity concerns include the lag-effect of higher interest rates as Covid debt refinances, draining of excess liquidity from the Fed's Reverse Repo Facility, and China challenging US dollar supremacy creating a global liquidity squeeze. |
Interest Rates Refinancing Fed Policy Global Squeeze Monetary Policy | |
SilverThe Crescat Precious Metals Fund is predominantly focused on deeply undervalued silver miners alongside gold miners that have potential for substantial countercyclical upside in a potential megacap tech selloff. |
Silver Miners Precious Metals Countercyclical Tech Selloff Undervalued | |
| 2024 Q3 |
Gold MinersGold mining stocks demonstrate historic countercyclicality versus broad US stock markets during major bear markets. The TSX-V Index serves as a proxy for precious metal explorers and is currently trading 83% below its 2011 highs while being 45% below 2008 GFC lows on an inflation-adjusted basis. This creates an extraordinary timing opportunity for catch-up performance in what the manager believes will be another secular bull market for precious metals. |
Gold Mining Countercyclical Explorers TSX-V |
ValuationMegacap technology stocks present historically high valuation risks with the top 10 US megacap tech stocks showing enterprise value to GDP of 63.8% versus 28.4% at the 2000 tech bubble peak. The S&P 500 CAPE ratio is higher than at the 1929 stock market peak, and using margin-adjusted P/E ratios, valuations are higher than both 1929 and 2000 peaks. |
CAPE MAPE Megacap Tech Bubble | |
AIRecent breakthroughs in generative artificial intelligence have spurred a capital spending race among technology service providers to build expensive data centers and cloud service platforms. Wall Street analysts are questioning prospects for meaningful return on investment in the near term for these hyperscalers, creating risks analogous to the 2000 Internet and telecom bubble. |
Artificial Intelligence Data Centers Hyperscalers Capex ROI | |
CommoditiesThe long declining trend of capital investment into mining from 2014 through 2021 creates a setup for significant macro supply-demand imbalance favoring a structural commodity metals bull market. Without supply to meet demand, metals prices are likely to trend higher for a multi-year cycle as it takes over a decade to discover, permit, and develop new mines. |
Supply Demand Capex Metals Cycle | |
| 2024 Q2 |
DollarThe manager expects a significant depreciation of the US dollar relative to other currencies over the next several years due to the Fed's misaligned interest rate policy and escalating debt service costs. Multiple fiat currencies have begun exhibiting strength despite aggressive US interest rate differentials, marking a potential historical bottom. |
Currency Devaluation Fed Policy Debt Service Exchange Rates |
GoldGold is positioned to benefit substantially from anticipated Fed rate cuts and dollar weakness. The manager views gold as historically attractive relative to the money supply and current fiscal indiscipline, with retail investors remaining on the sidelines indicating early cycle positioning. |
Precious Metals Rate Cuts Monetary Policy Safe Haven Inflation Hedge | |
Gold MinersMining companies are expected to outperform gold itself, similar to copper miners' recent outperformance. The manager sees a historical bottom in the miners-to-gold ratio and believes this represents one of the most attractive technical setups for the hated mining industry. |
Mining Stocks Leverage Operational Leverage Undervaluation Breakout | |
SilverSilver is viewed as the most undervalued asset with asymmetric upside potential in the current macro environment. The gold-to-silver ratio appears to be in an early-stage downward trend after breaking 13-year support, suggesting a potential silver rush. |
Industrial Metal Asymmetric Upside Ratio Trade Undervaluation Breakout | |
RatesThe Fed is expected to implement multiple rate cuts due to escalating federal debt service costs. The manager anticipates a substantial drop in short-term interest rates, creating strong tailwinds for precious metals and addressing the debt burden crisis. |
Fed Policy Rate Cuts Debt Service Yield Curve Monetary Policy | |
CommoditiesNatural resource sectors are positioned for secular opportunities in a deglobalized environment with constrained commodity supplies. The manager expects institutional investors to move into these markets as structural demand forces build from central banks and traditional portfolios. |
Natural Resources Supply Constraints Deglobalization Structural Demand Secular Opportunity | |
VolatilityCurrent suppressed volatility levels are viewed as unsustainable and poised for imminent change. The extended period of near-zero interest rates has suppressed financial stress to historically low levels, but the lagging effect of rising capital costs suggests significant macro landscape changes ahead. |
Market Stress Complacency Risk Pricing Regime Change Financial Conditions | |
| 2024 Q1 |
Gold MinersLong activist mining positions in precious metals represent the largest thematic exposure firmwide and have been the primary driver of strong performance year-to-date across all funds. The manager believes it is still very early in a new bull market for precious metals mining stocks, which remain historically undervalued. |
Gold Mining Precious Metals Activist Undervalued |
Critical MineralsThe firm maintains long activist mining positions in critical metals beyond precious metals, representing significant thematic exposure. These positions are part of the broader metals portfolio that has driven performance across funds. |
Critical Minerals Mining Metals Resources | |
| 2023 Q4 |
GoldGold is poised for a significant breakout that could signal the initiation of a new long-term cycle. The macro reasons for owning gold are undeniably strong, with central banks worldwide implementing more rate cuts than hikes for the first time since 2021. There is nothing more bullish for precious metals than being forced to restore financial repression in a highly inflationary environment. |
Gold Miners Precious Metals Central Banks Financial Repression Inflation |
SilverSilver is teetering on the brink of a historic breakthrough and has everything to become one of the standout performers in 2024. The chart stands out as one of the most bullish setups for the next 5 to 10 years. The inevitable breakout from this historical resistance is the primary reason for strategic focus on deploying capital efficiently into high-quality projects with substantial exposure to silver. |
Silver Miners Precious Metals Breakout Historical Resistance | |
CommoditiesCommodities have been trading within a narrow horizontal channel for more than 18 months and are likely to break out of this range. Given the Fed's apparent complacency towards inflation, commodity prices are expected to revisit the Russian invasion highs from 2022. As a main component of hard assets, commodities are historically undervalued and poised to move significantly higher in the coming years. |
Hard Assets Supply Demand Underinvestment Inflation | |
InflationThe inflation genie is out of the bottle and a second wave is likely in progress. A substantial 61% surge in global freight rates over the past week due to geopolitical conflicts in the Red Sea region demonstrates how deglobalization trends introduce complexity to logistics and will continue to exert upward pressure on consumer prices. The convergence of long-term macro trends leads to anticipation that inflation will surpass its historical averages over the last 30 years. |
Deglobalization Freight Rates Consumer Prices Geopolitical | |
AIThe recent advancements in artificial intelligence could paradoxically have highly positive implications for emerging markets that have long grappled with a low-quality labor force. Tools like ChatGPT act as true capability enablers, allowing individuals to access high-quality personal assistants, programmers, and other professionals at virtually no cost. This levels the playing field in terms of labor quality and suggests the gap in company valuations between developed and less developed economies will likely shrink significantly. |
Emerging Markets Labor Quality Capability Enablers Valuation Gap | |
RatesThe cost of capital is expected to rise significantly and sustainably in the decade ahead due to convergence of long-term macro trends. Today represents the longest period in history that yield curve inversions in the US Treasury market have stayed above the recessionary threshold for 15 consecutive months. Following one of the most robust 2-month declines in 10-year yield interest rates, a significant de-inversion of short versus long-term rates is anticipated as economic growth faces major challenges. |
Cost Of Capital Yield Curve Treasury Economic Growth | |
| 2023 Q3 |
GoldCrescat is excited about opportunities in the wrongfully distressed metals and mining industry. They view precious metals favorably for an upcoming stagflationary recession and expect commodities to perform well during the entire next economic expansion cycle. |
Gold Precious Metals Mining Stagflation Commodities |
InflationThe fund anticipates a new structurally higher-for-longer interest rate and inflation environment. They expect a stagflationary recession playbook rather than a deflationary one, drawing parallels to 1973-74 periods. |
Inflation Stagflation Interest Rates Fed Policy Monetary Policy | |
Energy TransitionCrescat introduced a new macro theme called ESG Rethink which included winning shorts in NextEra Energy and other financially challenged utilities, suggesting skepticism about certain aspects of the energy transition. |
ESG Utilities Energy Transition Renewables | |
| 2023 Q2 |
GoldManager views gold as an escape valve from debt crisis and superior to Treasuries given no counterparty risk. Expects powerful new demand wave from institutional and retail investors as central banks accumulate gold over USTs. Believes gold is primed for historical breakout despite being within 5% of all-time highs. |
Gold Monetary Haven Central Banks Breakout |
SilverSilver described as the cheapest metal on earth and ready to break through decade-long resistance. Manager believes if this is onset of new gold cycle, none of us own enough silver. Expects silver to significantly outperform gold as it did from 2003-2011. |
Silver Breakout Outperformance Resistance | |
OilAfter 45% decline from recent highs, risk/reward heavily skewed to upside. Supply remains incredibly tight with production below pre-pandemic levels and strategic petroleum reserves depleted to 1980s levels. Strong similarities to early 2000s period with depressed capital spending. |
Oil Supply Upside Strategic Reserves | |
InflationManager believes inflation is in bottoming process with CPI likely reaching bottom soon. Expects opposite of base effects with new upward trajectory underway driven by wage-price spiral, supply constraints, government spending, and deglobalization trends. |
Inflation Bottoming Structural Deglobalization | |
BiotechnologyHealthcare sector highly constructive given price dislocation and valuation proposition. Biotech companies drastically underperformed since 2015, with development phase businesses trading below cash levels. Hired specialist researcher and anticipate substantial growth in exposure. |
Biotechnology Healthcare Valuation Underperformance | |
AIRecent rally in tech megacap stocks driven by AI euphoria not justified by fundamentals. Tech megacaps have seen stagnant or declining 2024 EPS expectations despite AI enthusiasm. Correlation between Nasdaq and rising yields disrupted by AI euphoria. |
AI Euphoria Valuations Fundamentals | |
BrazilBrazilian stocks rarely as cheap as today despite negative developments. Outperformed every developed market since 2022 and continues beating S&P 500 year-to-date. Macro and fundamental reasons to own Brazilian equities are exceptional, representing incredible long-term buying opportunity. |
Brazil Valuation Outperformance Opportunity | |
CommoditiesSees significant secular demand boom for commodities fueled by fiscal stimulus from G7 economies. Spending has potential to rival China's resource demand surge in 2000s. Three Congressional spending Acts ready to be expanded with monetary policy support. |
Commodities Secular Demand Fiscal Stimulus |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Elevator Pitches found | ||||||||||
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| GDXJ | VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) was down 23.1% in March during the precious metals correction from short-term overbought conditions. |
| GDX | VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) down 20.8% in March during the precious metals pullback, though Crescat funds significantly outperformed this benchmark. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
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