| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | 17.35% | 4.68% |
The Compounding Tortoise returned 17.35% in Q2 2026, bringing YTD performance to 4.68%, driven by upside volatility rather than fundamental changes. The portfolio focuses on high-quality companies with 30% ROICs, low leverage, and scalable platforms delivering 15.1% Q1 earnings growth. Despite portfolio companies compounding earnings at 14% annually over the past two and a half years, multiple contraction has created a 27% valuation headwind since late July 2025. The manager observes extreme volatility in mega-caps like Amazon and Oracle, with price swings disconnected from intrinsic value. Smaller portfolio holdings have become less volatile than mega-caps. With the derating complete and accelerating earnings growth emerging, forward return prospects are positioned to be driven by continued NOPAT growth and dividends. The manager remains patient, recognizing that success depends on owning companies that grow sustainably for many years, with the market efficient at pricing near-term growth but creating opportunities for those understanding longevity. A new position was added, described as a hidden serial acquirer with a 26% potential CAGR over five years in a bullish scenario.
The manager invests in high-quality companies with ROICs around 30%, low leverage, and scalable platforms that can sustain 12% earnings growth while the broader market grows at 7%. Despite a 27% valuation headwind since late July 2025, portfolio companies have compounded earnings at 14% per annum over the past two and a half years. With the derating already occurred and accelerating earnings growth emerging, forward return prospects are positioned to be driven by continued earnings compounding and dividends.
The manager remains optimistic about steady progress with 14-15% earnings growth from portfolio companies. Forward return prospects have rarely looked better, driven by accelerated compounding in underlying earnings and cash flow. The manager expects forward returns to be driven solely by growth in NOPAT per share and dividends, with the derating already behind them. They will monitor whether Q1 earnings season acceleration continues, having observed growing momentum over the past six months.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 7 2026 | 2026 Q2 | AMZN, MU, ORCL | earnings, growth, Quality, ROIC, value, volatility | - | The Compounding Tortoise returned 17.35% in Q2 2026 despite elevated volatility in mega-caps. Portfolio companies with 30% ROICs delivered 15.1% Q1 earnings growth, compounding at 14% annually over two and a half years. A 27% valuation headwind since mid-2025 has created opportunity as the derating completes. Forward returns are positioned to be driven by continued earnings compounding and dividends, with accelerating growth momentum emerging across holdings. |
| Apr 8 2026 | 2026 Q1 | DPLM.L | concentrated, Long-only, Serial Acquisitions, valuation, value | DPLM.L | The Compounding Tortoise posted -18.79% in Q1 2026 but maintains focus on business fundamentals over market noise. With Diploma as a 4% position and upcoming deep-dives on serial acquirers, they emphasize valuation discipline and patience. The manager targets 12% absolute returns while highlighting that recent market gains came from multiple expansion rather than earnings growth. |
| Jan 5 2026 | 2025 Q4 | BRO, HEI, TJX, TVK.TO | earnings, growth, long-term, Quality, Roiic, value | - | Quality-focused manager posted -2.85% in 2025 but underlying portfolio companies delivered 12.5% annual NOPAT growth over two years. Portfolio-weighted 10-year projected returns now above 13%, indicating better entry points. Expects 16% earnings growth in 2026 from high-ROIIC companies with embedded optionality. Holdings include HEICO, Brown & Brown, Terravest, and TJX. |
| Oct 1 2025 | 2025 Q3 | PUUILO.HE | Concentration, earnings, Europe, Quality, value, volatility | - | European value manager delivered -6.29% YTD returns despite 13% earnings growth from quality holdings. Concentrated strategy hurt by market dynamics favoring passive investing over stock-picking. Portfolio trades at compelling valuations with 14%+ forward returns for top positions. Manager accepts current 'under-earning' period as temporary, maintaining conviction in high-return-on-capital European companies. |
| Jul 11 2025 | 2025 Q2 | DPLM.L, HARV.HE, LOTB.BR, POOL | Compounding, growth, Quality, Roiic, value | - | The Compounding Tortoise delivered +10.08% year-to-date through a fully invested portfolio of quality compounders with high returns on incremental invested capital. Despite tariff uncertainty and FX headwinds, underlying company fundamentals remain strong with +14.8% EBITA per share growth. The manager maintains focus on sustainable quality compounding over relative performance. |
| Apr 11 2025 | 2025 Q1 | - | compounders, growth, long-term, Quality, volatility | - | Quality-focused manager delivered 4.21% in volatile Q1 2025, with portfolio companies showing 15.0% EBITA growth in 2024. Unfazed by tariff uncertainty and FX headwinds, they're doubling down on research of existing high-quality compounders rather than chasing new names, emphasizing business longevity over market noise. |
| Jan 17 2025 | 2024 Q4 | AOR, BND, SPY, VEA, VWO | asset allocation, Elections, ETFs, Fed policy, risk management | - | Stonehearth Capital Management employs systematic, model-driven asset allocation using ETF strategies. Their dual golden rules of not fighting the Fed or market tape guide positioning decisions. With Fed rate cuts underway and risk models in bullish territory, they maintain overweight equity exposure while monitoring 49 risk indicators through their proprietary hedging protocol for dynamic portfolio management. |
| Oct 3 2024 | 2024 Q3 | BND, VOO, VXUS | AI, Bonds, healthcare, interest rates, international, technology | - | Miller Wealth Management reports solid Q3 performance with U.S. stocks up 5.89% and international markets gaining 7.28%. AI enthusiasm continues driving tech sector gains while Fed rate cuts support bond returns. Despite monitoring global conflicts, tariffs, and AI disruption, the firm maintains consistent long-term investment convictions for client portfolios. |
| Jul 3 2024 | 2024 Q2 | - | AI, consumer, defense, energy, Federal Reserve, healthcare, technology, Trade Policy | - | Markets rebounded from April tariff-driven selloffs to new highs, powered by AI investments, energy boom, medical innovation, consumer spending, NATO defense spending, and tight labor markets. Key watchpoints include Fed rate cuts, trade deal negotiations, and new federal legislation impacts. Despite geopolitical risks, fundamental drivers support continued market strength. |
| Apr 4 2024 | 2024 Q1 | 1928.HK, 2282.HK, AIR.PA, ALD.AX, AZN.AX, CIP.AX, COL.AX, CS.AX, CXBK.MC, EDV.AX, FCX, FDV.AX, GMEXICOB.MX, HSBA.L, LLOY.L, MRL.AX, MSCI, NEE, NEM, NST.AX, QUB.AX, TECK, WYNN | Banking, commodities, Copper, cyclicals, global, gold, Mining, value | - | PM Capital's Global Companies Fund rose 10% in Q3 2025, outperforming markets through disciplined exposure to undervalued cyclicals. Gold and copper holdings drove returns despite Freeport's Grasberg mine issues. European banks continued re-rating while Airbus was sold at double entry price. The fund maintains contrarian positioning in value opportunities while reducing exposure where investment theses have been realized. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q2 |
VolatilityThe manager describes elevated volatility in 2026, with mega-cap stocks like Amazon and Oracle experiencing extreme price swings unrelated to intrinsic value changes. Smaller portfolio holdings have become less volatile than mega caps. Month-end and quarter-end rebalancing by investors seeking momentum has amplified these swings. |
Volatility Mega Cap Price Swings Rebalancing |
QualityThe portfolio focuses on high-quality companies with ROICs around 30%, low leverage, and scalable platforms. These quality growth companies have experienced underperformance and multiple contraction despite delivering 14% annual earnings growth. The manager expects forward returns to be driven by continued earnings growth as the derating has already occurred. |
Quality ROIC Growth Multiple Contraction | |
EarningsPortfolio companies delivered 15.1% growth in underlying earnings per share in Q1 2026, with earnings compounding at approximately 14% per annum over the past two and a half years. The manager observes accelerating growth driven by company-specific initiatives and growing momentum over the past six months, though recognizes growth is not linear. |
Earnings EPS Growth EBITA Compounding | |
| 2026 Q1 |
ValueThe manager emphasizes that roughly 45% of the S&P 500's return has come from increased multiples rather than earnings growth. They focus on valuation levels at entry and warn against jumping to wrong conclusions about share prices rather than understanding the real business fundamentals behind them. |
Valuation Multiples Entry Price Business Fundamentals Share Price |
| 2025 Q4 |
EarningsThe manager emphasizes portfolio-weighted NOPAT/share growth of 12.5% per annum over the past two years, with projected 16% earnings growth for 2026. They focus on companies generating real and sustainable earnings growth in the mid-teens percent range. |
NOPAT Growth Sustainable |
QualityThe manager seeks companies with high returns on incremental invested capital (low-30s percent ROIIC) and managers with meaningful skin in the game. They emphasize investments that pay off quickly and focus on quality growth boxes. |
ROIIC Capital Management | |
| 2025 Q3 |
EarningsPortfolio companies delivered consistent 12-13% growth in 12-month rolling EBITA per share. The manager emphasizes that portfolio-weighted earnings metrics haven't been this compelling since the start of their newsletter, with forward annualized returns now exceeding 14% on average for top holdings. |
EBITA NOPAT Growth Returns Valuation |
QualityThe strategy focuses on companies with high returns on capital and highly rational management teams. These quality metrics support the consistent earnings growth and remain where the manager wants them to be for long-term compounding. |
Returns on Capital Management Quality Compounding | |
ValueThe manager notes a significant discrepancy in valuation between their portfolio and the broader index, with their companies trading at attractive multiples despite strong earnings growth. This valuation gap creates compelling forward return opportunities. |
Valuation Multiples Discount Opportunity | |
| 2025 Q2 |
QualityThe manager emphasizes sustainable quality compounding through companies with high returns on incremental invested capital (>20/25%). They focus on businesses that demonstrate consistent organic growth, rational capital allocation, and strong free cash flow performance rather than financial engineering. |
ROIIC Compounding Organic Growth Capital Allocation Free Cash Flow |
| 2025 Q1 |
QualityThe manager focuses on high-quality compounders that delivered 15.0% EBITA per share growth in 2024. They emphasize companies that show resilience and continue thriving through volatile periods, with a focus on business longevity rather than short-term market movements. |
Compounders EBITA Resilience Longevity Quality Growth |
| 2024 Q3 |
AIInvestor enthusiasm has remained high around artificial intelligence and cloud infrastructure, with the largest companies investing substantial dollars into AI progress. The firm is watching developments in the quickly changing AI and digital landscape. |
Cloud Technology Investment Infrastructure |
RatesThe Federal Reserve decided to reduce short-term rates for the first time this year. The median projection shows a downward trend of about 100 basis points by 2025, which could boost corporate and real estate profitability through lower borrowing costs. |
Federal Reserve SOFR Borrowing Corporate Real Estate | |
| 2024 Q2 |
AIMost companies have adopted AI in some form. The largest U.S. companies are investing billions into AI and are already benefitting from automation, productivity, and personal assistance services. |
Automation Productivity Technology |
EnergyDue to technological innovation, high energy prices, and global demand growth, more energy sources are needed. This flows job creation, infrastructure development, and economic growth. |
Energy Prices Infrastructure Economic Growth | |
Defense SpendingWhile the U.S. has pulled back from arms support in Ukraine, European countries have picked up the ticket and defense companies are benefitting from it. |
NATO Defense Ukraine | |
| 2024 Q1 |
CopperFund maintains heavy exposure to copper producers including Teck Resources, Freeport-McMoRan, and Grupo Mexico. Copper prices rose 5% in September following supply disruptions at major mines. The Freeport Grasberg accident shifted market expectations from surplus to deficit heading into 2026. |
Copper Mining Supply Deficit Producers |
GoldGold positions benefited from 17% price rise to all-time high of US$3,873. Newmont gained 45% while Northern Star rallied 26%. Despite record gold prices, investor ownership of gold equities remains low with valuations still attractive and competitive capital returns. |
Gold Miners Valuation Capital Returns Ownership | |
AIAI investment cycle highlighted as one of the megatrends driving market narratives, with partnerships among OpenAI, Nvidia and Oracle mentioned. However, discussions of AI themes rarely address valuation or return on invested capital, which the manager views as cautionary. |
AI Investment Valuation Returns Partnerships | |
OnshoringUS reshoring and infrastructure investment identified as key themes supporting market strength. The surge in US reshoring investment is driving market narratives alongside AI, though valuation concerns persist around these megatrends. |
Reshoring Infrastructure Investment US Manufacturing |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2026 | Fund Letters | The Compounding Tortoise | DPLM.L | Diploma PLC | Industrial Distribution | Trading Companies & Distributors | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | capital allocation, Industrial Distributor, M&A strategy, organic growth, serial acquirer, UK, undervalued | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| AMZN | Amazon went down 20% in a month (January - February 2026), then rebounded 40% in a month (end of March - May), and dropped another 17% from May till June. Yes, shares are up 5% year-to-date. |
| ORCL | Oracle's stock price has been all over the place. It dropped 33% in a month (January till February); then rebounded 17% in 3-4 trading days. Then, it rallied 80% from the beginning of April till mid-June, and then it fell over again: -44% in less than a month... Kudos if you've managed to catch the low and sell at the high but what's this got to do with changes in intrinsic value or expectations? |
| MU | We could buy into Micron just to show off we're holders of a name whose stock price has ballooned as of late but we can't quite get that logic. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
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| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
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