| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
Alta Fox believes XPEL represents a compelling investment opportunity as a high-quality share gainer in the secularly growing Paint Protection Film market. The company dominates this niche oligopoly through software-led competitive advantages via their DAP platform and strong brand recognition, with US PPF penetration estimated at only mid-single digits providing substantial room for adoption growth. After an elevated investment period from 2022-2025, XPEL is positioned for significant operating leverage while sustaining high-single-digit revenue growth. CEO Ryan Pape has outlined a credible plan to drive EBIT margins from 13% to 26% by FY28 through vertical integration initiatives. The shares have de-rated significantly following slower 2024 growth, short reports, and macro concerns, creating an asymmetric risk/reward opportunity. Alta Fox forecasts FY28 EPS to roughly double from FY25 levels under conservative assumptions, supporting 100% upside, with management's targets implying materially higher earnings power and 250% upside potential.
XPEL is a dominant compounder in a niche oligopoly trading at an attractive price, positioned for operating leverage after emerging from a multi-year investment cycle with management targeting significant margin expansion through vertical integration.
Alta Fox expects XPEL to compound EPS at a low-20% rate through FY28 in their base case framework, with management's vertical integration plan potentially supporting materially faster EPS growth and 250% upside if targets are achieved.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8 2026 | 2026 Q1 | PPG, XPEL | Auto Aftermarket, growth, margin expansion, Paint Protection, small cap, Vertical Integration | XPEL | XPEL dominates the Paint Protection Film market with strong competitive moats and secular growth tailwinds. After years of investment, the company is positioned for operating leverage with management targeting margin expansion from 13% to 26% through vertical integration. Trading near historical lows despite improving fundamentals, XPEL offers 100-250% upside potential through FY28. |
| Jul 31 2025 | 2025 Q2 | NATL | ATM, Banking, Buybacks, Services, technology, value | NATL | NCR Atleos dominates ATM services with 30% EPS growth potential yet trades at only 6x PE. The company leads the nascent ATM-as-a-Service market with significant runway for penetration growth and margin expansion. Management will begin aggressive share buybacks in late 2025 while refinancing expensive debt. Target price $100 represents 270% upside from current $27. |
| Nov 2 2024 | 2024 Q3 | APP, IWM, REVG, SPY | industrials, small caps, technology, value, volatility |
APP REVG |
Alta Fox's disciplined small-cap value strategy faced Q3 headwinds from lower net exposure during market multiple expansion, but portfolio exposure is now at historical highs with numerous high-conviction self-catalyst opportunities. Successful AppLovin exit at 2x cost and aggressive REV Group accumulation on earnings volatility exemplify their approach of capitalizing on small-cap inefficiencies through rigorous fundamental research. |
| Jul 31 2024 | 2024 Q2 | HUMBLE.ST, REVG | Manufacturing, Quality, small caps, Sweden, value |
REVG HUMBLE.ST |
Alta Fox posted 1.45% net returns in Q2 while maintaining disciplined small-cap value investing despite risk-on market conditions. Key holdings REVG and Humble Group offer compelling normalized earnings potential at attractive multiples. The fund continues investing in data capabilities and process improvements while remaining enthusiastic about multi-year small-cap opportunities with diminishing competition. |
| Jun 1 2024 | 2024 Q1 | DAKT, REVG | Activist, Japan, Quality, small caps, undervalued, value |
EML.AX DAKT HUMBLE.ST REVG |
Alta Fox delivered 6.51% net returns in Q1 2024, led by successful activist exits and continued value creation. The fund targets high-quality, underfollowed small-cap businesses at attractive valuations, recently expanding into Japan and adding Rev Group. With diminishing competition in small-caps and attractive pricing, the firm remains enthusiastic about multi-year capital allocation opportunities. |
| Jun 2 2024 | 2023 Q4 | RSG, SES.TO, WCN | activism, Canada, consumer, small caps, value, Waste management | SES.TO | Alta Fox delivered strong 2023 returns through disciplined small-cap value investing, avoiding expensive mega-caps while finding opportunities like Canadian waste management company SES trading at deep discounts to peers. Despite elevated market multiples and emerging consumer weakness, the fund remains optimistic about deploying capital in attractive small-cap opportunities with multi-year horizons. |
| Feb 11 2023 | 2023 Q3 | - | - | - | |
| Aug 31 2023 | 2023 Q2 | DAKT | credit, EBITDA, small caps, technology, underfollowed, value | DAKT | Alta Fox delivered 5.26% net returns in Q2 2023 through concentrated small-cap value investing. Their largest position Daktronics has dramatically improved operationally, with EBITDA margins expanding to 12% while trading at only 4x run-rate EBITDA. The fund sees superior asymmetric opportunities in underfollowed small-caps versus large-caps in current markets. |
| May 31 2023 | 2023 Q1 | DAKT | activism, Daktronics, small caps, special situations, value | DAKT | Alta Fox targets undervalued small-caps through activist catalyst creation, announcing Daktronics as largest position after becoming 6% shareholder at multi-decade lows. Fund sees alpha opportunities in small-cap space given valuation disparities versus expensive large-caps. Disciplined value approach with 57% net exposure, reopening for limited new capital to exploit current environment. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 |
Auto AftermarketXPEL dominates the Paint Protection Film market with software-led competitive advantages through their DAP platform and strong brand recognition. The company benefits from secular growth in PPF adoption with US penetration estimated at only mid-single digits, providing substantial room for expansion as consumer awareness increases. |
Paint Protection Film PPF Auto Protection Aftermarket Vehicle Protection |
Vertical IntegrationManagement targets doubling EBIT margins from 13% to 26% by FY28 through vertical integration initiatives, taking manufacturing in-house to capture supplier margins. This represents a strategic shift after years of investment in infrastructure, positioning the company for significant operating leverage. |
Manufacturing Supply Chain Margin Expansion Operating Leverage In-house Production | |
| 2025 Q2 |
ATM ServicesNCR Atleos dominates the ATM servicing market with its ATM-as-a-Service offering showing strong growth potential. The company's 3rd party ATM servicing business accounts for 48% of EBITDA and is positioned to grow 15% annually as banks outsource more operations. ATMaaS conversions are in early innings with only 6% of 3P ATMs under this model today, expected to reach 24% by 2028. |
ATM Services Outsourcing Banking Technology |
Financial ServicesThe company operates in the mature ATM industry serving global banks with no customer concentration. NATL operates the largest network of independent ATMs globally at 77,000 units and dominates the market alongside Diebold. The business benefits from switching costs and route density advantages that create competitive moats. |
Banking Financial ATM Networks Infrastructure | |
TechnologyATMs are becoming increasingly multi-functional with deposits, credit access, and video consultations. Cash recyclers carry 2-3x price premiums and NATL is transitioning its install base to these higher-functionality units. The company has best-in-class software refined over decades and strong technological capabilities. |
ATM Software Recyclers Innovation Hardware | |
BuybacksManagement expects to begin share repurchases in the second half of 2025 once leverage targets are met. The CEO stated that a large percentage of excess free cash flow should be delivered back to shareholders through buybacks. NATL trades at nearly 20% FY26 FCFE yield, making repurchases highly accretive. |
Repurchases Capital Returns Cash Value | |
| 2024 Q3 |
Small CapsAlta Fox focuses on high-quality and underfollowed small-cap businesses at attractive valuations. The manager notes increasing extreme price volatility in small caps as an opportunity to capitalize on their diligent research process. They see the convergence of attractively priced small-cap assets and a diminishing competitive landscape as fueling their excitement. |
Small Caps Volatility Underfollowed Valuation Research |
ValueThe fund employs a disciplined valuation approach, demanding minimum medium-term IRR of typically 20% and not incorporating multiple expansion into base cases. They focus on buying businesses that can be cheaper at higher stock prices if normalized earnings outlook improves. This valuation discipline has contributed to strong downside capture since inception. |
Value IRR Valuation Discipline Downside | |
| 2024 Q2 |
Small CapsAlta Fox focuses on attractively priced small-cap assets with what they believe to be a diminishing competitive landscape within this specialized market. The fund continues to target high-quality and underfollowed businesses at cheap prices in the small-cap space. They express enthusiasm about allocating capital today with a multi-year time horizon in small-cap opportunities. |
Small Cap Underfollowed Value Quality Specialized |
ValueThe fund's strategy centers on buying high-quality and underfollowed businesses at cheap prices. They maintain strict risk controls and disciplined underwriting standards, waiting for specific price levels and IRR targets before initiating positions. The manager emphasizes being compensated appropriately for risk rather than chasing returns in a risk-on environment. |
Value Cheap Quality Disciplined IRR | |
Industrial MachineryREVG operates in the specialty vehicle manufacturing space with multi-year backlogs providing excellent visibility. The company benefits from throughput initiatives and higher-priced trucks flowing through their backlog. Management is focused on improving margins in a supportive industry environment with competitors reporting strength in the fire and emergency vertical. |
Manufacturing Backlog Throughput Margins Specialty Vehicles | |
| 2024 Q1 |
Small CapsAlta Fox focuses on attractively priced small-cap assets with a diminishing competitive landscape in this specialized market. The fund targets high-quality, underfollowed businesses at cheap prices in the small-cap space. Japan offers excellent long-term opportunities with more publicly traded small-mid cap companies than the United States. |
Small Cap Value Japan Underfollowed Quality |
ValueThe fund's strategy centers on buying high-quality businesses at cheap prices with strict risk controls. Humble Group trades at a double-digit free cash flow yield while producing mid-teens organic revenue growth. DAKT trades for less than 6x estimated EBITDA, implying a double-digit free cash flow yield. |
Value Free Cash Flow EBITDA Cheap Quality | |
| 2023 Q4 |
Waste ManagementThe fund initiated a new position in Secure Energy Services Inc, a Canadian energy waste management company that has consolidated its industry through acquisitions. The company is divesting non-core assets and trading at attractive valuations compared to US waste management peers, with potential for 100%+ appreciation. |
Energy Waste Consolidation Divestiture Valuation |
Consumer WeaknessThe manager is monitoring signs of low-income consumer stress, including near all-time low savings rates, rising credit card delinquencies, and the cumulative impact of high inflation on fragile consumer balance sheets. This theme presents opportunities on both long and short sides of the portfolio. |
Consumer Stress Credit Inflation Savings | |
| 2023 Q2 |
Small CapsEven with the recent rally in small-cap stocks, Alta Fox believes this segment of the market currently represents a superior hunting ground for asymmetric opportunities. The fund's research process typically leads them to opportunities in the small-cap space, where they find better risk-adjusted returns compared to large-cap stocks. |
Small Cap Asymmetric Opportunities Russell 2000 Undervalued |
ValueAlta Fox's strategy focuses on buying high-quality and underfollowed businesses at cheap prices to deliver attractive absolute and relative returns. They believe DAKT is trading at unsustainably cheap metrics of ~3.9x EBITDA and ~14% FCFE yield, representing compelling value in the market today. |
Value Cheap EBITDA Undervalued Intrinsic Value | |
| 2023 Q1 |
Small CapsAlta Fox is constructive on the small-cap space and believes it should prove a good hunting ground for alpha, particularly given the current valuation disparity. Small-cap stocks are now approaching historically cheap levels relative to large-caps. The fund sees opportunity in small-cap equities, particularly internationally. |
Value Disparity Alpha International |
ValueThe fund focuses on buying high-quality and underfollowed businesses at cheap prices. They are skeptical of large-cap valuations and pessimistic about future returns from some of the most popular stocks in the market today. Many great businesses are trading at historically expensive valuation multiples despite likely decelerating fundamentals. |
Quality Underfollowed Cheap Expensive |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2023 | Fund Letters | Alta Fox Capital Management | DAKT | Daktronics | Information Technology | Electronic Equipment, Instruments & Components | Bull | NASDAQ | Corporate Governance, COVID Recovery, Digital Signage, EBITDA Expansion, Electronic Displays, Free Cash Flow, market leader, net cash, Pricing Discipline, Scoreboards, Sports Technology, turnaround, Value | Login |
| May 1, 2023 | Fund Letters | Alta Fox Capital Management | DAKT | Daktronics | Information Technology | Electronic Equipment, Instruments & Components | Bull | NASDAQ | Activism, convertible note, Electronic Displays, manufacturing, market leader, Scoreboards, Supply Chain Recovery, turnaround, Value, Working Capital Normalization | Login |
| Apr 8, 2026 | Fund Letters | Alta Fox Capital Management | XPEL | XPEL Inc | Auto Parts | Automotive Parts & Equipment | Bull | NASDAQ | Automotive Aftermarket, Brand Premium, margin expansion, market share gains, niche market, operating leverage, Paint Protection Film, PPF, secular growth, software platform, turnaround, Value, vertical integration | Login |
| Jul 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Alta Fox Capital Management | NATL | NCR Atleos | Software - Application | Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals | Bull | NASDAQ | ATM Services, ATM-as-a-Service, banking technology, Cash management, financial technology, recurring revenue, Route-based Business, spin-off, turnaround, Value | Login |
| Oct 1, 2024 | Fund Letters | Alta Fox Capital Management | APP | AppLovin Corporation | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | NASDAQ | adtech, Data Analytics, growth, Mobile Gaming, SaaS, technology, Value | Login |
| Oct 1, 2024 | Fund Letters | Alta Fox Capital Management | REVG | REV Group, Inc. | Industrials | Machinery | Bull | NYSE | Ambulance, Cyclical, Fire Equipment, Industrial, margin expansion, share repurchase, small-cap, Value | Login |
| Aug 2, 2024 | Fund Letters | Alta Fox Capital Management | REVG | REV Group Inc | Capital Goods | Commercial Vehicles & Trucks | Bull | NYSE | backlog, commercial vehicles, Cyclical, EBITDA Margin Expansion, Fire & Emergency, manufacturing, oligopoly, operational efficiency, Pricing power, Value | Login |
| Aug 2, 2024 | Fund Letters | Alta Fox Capital Management | HUMBLE.ST | Humble Group AB | Consumer Staples | Personal Products | Bull | Nasdaq First North Stockholm | Capital Markets Day, consolidation, EBITDA growth, growth, Institutional Ownership, management ownership, Nasdaq Stockholm, organic growth, personal care, Swedish, uplisting, Value | Login |
| May 1, 2024 | Fund Letters | Alta Fox Capital Management | EML.AX | EML Payments LTD | Information Technology | Data Processing & Outsourced Services | Bull | ASX | activist, Australia, Board Restructuring, Fintech, Float Income, Gift Cards, Payments, turnaround | Login |
| May 1, 2024 | Fund Letters | Alta Fox Capital Management | DAKT | Daktronics | Information Technology | Electronic Equipment, Instruments & Components | Bull | NASDAQ | Digital Signage, Electronic Displays, Free Cash Flow, Operational Improvement, Sports Technology, Value | Login |
| May 1, 2024 | Fund Letters | Alta Fox Capital Management | HUMBLE.ST | Humble Group AB | Consumer Staples | Personal Products | Bull | Nasdaq First North | acquisition target, consumer staples, Exchange Migration, Free Cash Flow, organic growth, Sweden, uplisting | Login |
| May 1, 2024 | Fund Letters | Alta Fox Capital Management | REVG | REV Group | Industrials | Machinery | Bull | NYSE | Ambulances, backlogs, Emergency Vehicles, Fire Trucks, margin expansion, Municipal, oligopoly, Pricing power | Login |
| Feb 1, 2024 | Fund Letters | Alta Fox Capital Management | SES.TO | Secure Energy Services Inc | Industrials | Environmental & Facilities Services | Bull | Toronto Stock Exchange | Asset Divestiture, Canada, debt reduction, EBITDA Multiple Expansion, Energy Services, environmental services, M&A Target, Share Buybacks, Value, waste management | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| XPEL | XPEL is a high-quality share gainer in the secularly growing Paint Protection Film market. Management targeting ~40% EPS CAGR through FY28. CEO Ryan Pape is a proven value creator, well aligned, and recently outlined a credible plan to drive EBIT margins from 13% in FY25 to 26% by FY28. We forecast FY28 EPS to roughly double from FY25 levels, supporting 100% upside in the equity. |
| PPG | PPG signaled interest in film-based solutions in 2023 via a joint venture with Entrotech to deliver paint and clear film solutions. Our research suggests that the JV's OEM initiatives have struggled to gain traction, paint-based products cannot compete effectively against PPF, and that industry coatings players are looking with interest at ways to acquire their way into the PPF market. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Company Name | Industry | Value (M) | Shares | Weight % | Shares Purchased/Sold | Change in Share % | Market Cap (M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NATL | - | NCR ATLEOS CORPORATION | Information Technology | 74.3M | 1,950,881 | 16.0% | -23,272 | -1.2% | 3,073.7M |
| DAKT | - | DAKTRONICS INC | Information Technology | 73.8M | 3,733,199 | 15.9% | -697,600 | -15.7% | 1,331.5M |
| XPEL | - | XPEL INC | Consumer Discretionary | 72.0M | 1,442,638 | 15.5% | 1,384,769 | 2,392.9% | 1,389.5M |
| CARG | - | CARGURUS INC | Consumer Discretionary | 48.8M | 1,273,544 | 10.5% | 174,844 | 15.9% | 2,799.1M |
| BTSG | - | BRIGHTSPRING HEALTH SVCS INC | Health Care | 46.3M | 1,237,500 | 10.0% | 776,975 | 168.7% | 7,372.8M |
| REZI | - | RESIDEO TECHNOLOGIES INC | Industrials | 44.5M | 1,266,700 | 9.6% | 1,266,700 | New Buy | 5,473.6M |
| TRS | - | TRIMAS CORP | Materials | 20.0M | 563,375 | 4.3% | 227,231 | 67.6% | 1,497.4M |
| FICO | - | FAIR ISAAC CORP | Information Technology | 20.0M | 11,810 | 4.3% | -1,090 | -8.4% | 32,380.7M |
| AMZN | - | AMAZON COM INC | Consumer Discretionary | 19.2M | 83,000 | 4.1% | 0 | No Change | 2,196,633.2M |
| ARES | - | ARES MANAGEMENT CORPORATION | Financials | 16.3M | 100,600 | 3.5% | 100,600 | New Buy | 43,905.0M |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REZI | - | $44.5M | 1M | - | 9.57% |
| XPEL | - | $40.7M | 1M | 2,392.9% | 15.49% |
| ARES | - | $16.3M | 101K | - | 3.50% |
| BTSG | - | $14.1M | 777K | 168.7% | 9.97% |
| TRS | - | $5.3M | 227K | 67.6% | 4.30% |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXCM | - | $25.9M | 379K | - | 0.00% | Sold Out |
| REVG | - | $25.4M | 807K | - | 0.00% | Sold Out |
| TXT | - | $17.4M | 241K | - | 0.00% | Sold Out |
| DV | - | $16.5M | 1M | - | 0.00% | Sold Out |
| SN | - | $12.4M | 149K | - | 0.00% | Sold Out |
| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Information Technology | 42.17% | 38.04% | -4.13% |
| Consumer Discretionary | -340.03% | 32.26% | +372.29% |
| Health Care | -6.85% | 9.97% | +16.82% |
| Industrials | 9.57% | 9.57% | +0.00% |
| Materials | 1.39% | 4.30% | +2.90% |
| Financials | 3.50% | 3.50% | +0.00% |
| Communication Services | 2.36% | 2.36% | +0.00% |
