| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | 0% | 0% |
Q4 2025 delivered modest but respectable gains despite elevated volatility, with AI remaining the dominant investment theme driving exceptional returns in Communication and IT sectors. The S&P 500 returned nearly 18% for the year, outpaced by Emerging Markets at 34% and Asia at 33%. Major hyperscalers are projected to increase AI-related capex to $500bn in 2026, over three times pre-ChatGPT levels, creating enormous energy infrastructure demands. Global data centers currently consume 1.5-3% of total electricity, with AI workloads representing 5-15% of that usage. However, structural risks are emerging around sticky services inflation, particularly in food costs, while energy prices face upward pressure from AI infrastructure demands. The yield curve presents concerning dynamics with the long-end anchored to outdated pre-covid assumptions inconsistent with higher debt levels and neutral rates. Markets must navigate the balance between AI-driven growth opportunities and inflationary pressures that could force painful adjustments in bond markets and economic policy assumptions.
AI infrastructure investment is driving a structural shift in global capital allocation, but energy constraints and sticky services inflation pose risks to the sustainability of current market dynamics and yield curve assumptions.
Markets will watch carefully for equilibrium between full employment and stable inflation. AI-related capex spending could become an increasingly important global driver of business investment. Energy production challenges may create upward pressure on costs, potentially feeding back into services inflation.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 30 2026 | 2025 Q4 | AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, ORCL | AI, Capex, Data centers, energy, Hyperscalers, inflation, rates, yield curve | - | AI infrastructure investment is reshaping global capital allocation with hyperscalers planning $500bn in 2026 capex, but energy constraints and sticky services inflation threaten market stability. While AI adoption accelerates and drives exceptional equity returns, structural risks around yield curve assumptions and inflationary feedback loops could trigger painful market adjustments ahead. |
| Jul 16 2025 | 2025 Q2 | - | AI, Debt, Geopolitical, inflation, productivity, Trade Policy | - | Markets posted strong YTD gains despite Q2 volatility, but face structural headwinds from unsustainable debt servicing costs and inflation risks. Technology-driven productivity gains offer the primary solution for developed economies, while regional opportunities emerge in Germany's fiscal expansion and China's AI-driven recovery. The easy money era is ending, requiring fundamental economic adjustments. |
| Apr 10 2025 | 2025 Q1 | FBTC, IEMG, IVE, IVW, IWM, IYZ, QQQ, SPY, VXUS, XLB, XLC, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLP, XLRE, XLU, XLV, XLY | Capital markets, diversification, Dollar, Recovery, tariffs, Trade Policy, volatility | - | Market volatility from Trump's tariff announcement demonstrated diversification value as international assets outperformed amid dollar weakness. While U.S. stocks recovered strongly, elevated valuations and cooling economic data warrant caution. Neutral outlook supported by likely tax cuts and potential Fed easing, but monitoring deficit risks and Fed credibility concerns. |
| Jan 17 2025 | 2024 Q4 | AAPL, ADBE, AMZN, BSX, CRM, CSCO, ELUT, GOOGL, MDT, MDXH, META, MSFT, NVDA, ORCL, XERS, ZETA | AI, growth, healthcare, rates, small caps |
MDXH XERS ZETA ELUT |
Small-cap growth manager outperformed significantly in Q3 with healthcare overweight strategy. Key holdings MDxHealth and Xeris Pharmaceuticals show strong revenue growth at attractive valuations. Manager sees Fed rate cuts as tailwind for small-caps while remaining skeptical of AI investment returns. Focused on companies with new products, large market opportunities, and strong fundamentals despite macro uncertainties. |
| Oct 10 2024 | 2024 Q3 | 1211.HK, AHT.L, AMAT, AMZN, ASML, AVGO, BABA, BLK, CB, GOOGL, ICE, LMT, LSEG.L, META, MSFT, NVDA, ORCL, RVTY, SHEL, TMO | AI, Bubble, China, Cloud, Electric Vehicles, infrastructure, technology, Valuations |
BABA 1211.HK HTHT MDT |
Emerald delivered 4.7% net returns in Q3 led by Alibaba and Alphabet gains, while maintaining defensive positioning amid dangerous market conditions with S&P 500 at 93rd percentile valuations. The manager warns AI speculation is driving irrational infrastructure spending with limited monetizable progress, preferring disciplined value investing in quality businesses including undervalued Chinese companies over chasing momentum. |
| Jul 15 2024 | 2024 Q2 | - | Artificial Intelligence, geopolitics, inflation, large cap, Short Duration | - | |
| Apr 15 2024 | 2024 Q1 | ADBE, AGX, AXSM, CRM, DUK, GHM, META, MSFT, ORCL, VST, ZETA | AI, Biotechnology, defense, energy, growth, small caps, technology |
AGX GHM ZETA AXSM |
Growth manager delivered 26-31% returns in 2024 versus 15% for Russell 2000 Growth through concentrated positions in AI infrastructure, defense, energy transition, and biotech themes. Portfolio includes Argan building power plants for data centers, Graham Corp supplying submarine equipment, Zeta Global's AI marketing platform, and Axsome's CNS therapeutics. Optimistic on Trump policies benefiting growth companies. |
| Jan 17 2024 | 2023 Q4 | AGX, ZETA | Advertising, AI, growth, Natural Gas, rates, small caps, technology, value |
ZETA AGX |
GROW Funds outperformed with 19-25% YTD returns by focusing on small and mid-cap growth stocks with attractive valuations versus expensive large caps. Key winners include Zeta Global (up 255%) in AI-powered advertising and Argan building natural gas power plants for AI data centers. Fed rate cuts should support continued business expansion and small-cap outperformance. |
| Oct 10 2023 | 2023 Q3 | - | Dollar, equities, Fiscal, global, gold, inflation, US | - | TIFF maintains U.S. equity conviction despite fiscal deficit concerns requiring $2 trillion annual debt sales. Lessons from Argentina and Turkey show equities provide real-asset protection even amid currency crises. Portfolio holds target equity exposure with modest puts for seasonal protection, while recommending gold and limited bitcoin as dollar hedges. AI, economic stability, and Fed easing support constructive outlook. |
| Jul 28 2023 | 2023 Q2 | - | AI, Endowments, fiscal policy, fixed income, inflation, private equity, volatility | - | TIFF weathered extreme Q2 volatility while maintaining cautious optimism based on solid economic fundamentals including 3.4% GDP growth forecast and easing inflation. Despite fiscal concerns and foreign investor skepticism about U.S. exceptionalism, the firm expects reduced uncertainty as policy clarity emerges and sees compelling private equity opportunities from endowment tax changes. |
| Apr 17 2023 | 2023 Q1 | - | AI, Markets, policy, productivity, tariffs, Trump, volatility | - | TIFF maintains strategic allocation despite Trump tariff volatility causing 9% stock decline. Firm avoids short-term decisions while betting on AI productivity gains potentially driving 7%+ growth. Tariffs create near-term uncertainty but long-term optimism from technology adoption and potential policy success. Portfolio stays 65% global equities, 20% hedges, 15% bonds with added volatility protection. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI remained the dominant theme driving US and global returns. Communication and IT sectors delivered +33% and +23.6% respectively despite concerns about infrastructure spend sustainability. Projected hyperscaler CAPEX could reach $500bn in 2026, over three times pre-ChatGPT levels, creating enormous demand for AI equipment and energy. |
Artificial Intelligence CAPEX Infrastructure Hyperscalers Technology |
EnergyEnergy costs face upward pressure from massive AI infrastructure power demands. Global data centers use 1.5-3% of total electricity, with AI workloads consuming 5-15% of that. Growth rates in AI infrastructure cannot be supported by current energy production capacity, with 80% of energy still hydrocarbon-generated and refining capacity constraints. |
Power Data Centers Electricity Infrastructure Demand | |
InflationServices inflation has become sticky with key items like food running at alarmingly high levels. The multi-variate nature of current inflation is different this time, and energy costs cannot sink much lower from current levels. If energy inflation picks up, it feeds back into services inflation. |
Services Food Energy Sticky Multi-variate | |
RatesMarkets face risk of yield curve adjustment as long-end remains anchored to pre-COVID norms inconsistent with higher debt and higher R*. The front-end remains suppressed by easing expectations while the belly assumes low-rate regime returns. Greater risk of whiplash adjustment if markets cling to outdated anchors. |
Yield Curve R* Neutral Rate Bond Yields Adjustment | |
| 2025 Q2 |
InflationResurgent inflation is identified as a key risk driven by trade-driven supply shocks and fiscal loosening. Energy price spikes during geopolitical tensions briefly raised inflationary concerns before oil collapsed back to mid-$60s levels, helping reverse these concerns. |
Trade Fiscal Energy Supply Monetary |
Trade PolicyTariffs are a defining factor for Q3 outlook with effective tariff rates around 15% based on current negotiations. The Tax Foundation study shows significant GDP impact with conventional, dynamic, and tit-for-tat scenarios all showing negative economic effects. |
Tariffs GDP Negotiations Economic Impact | |
AIAI is highlighted as a key productivity driver that could help developed nations reduce costs and improve productivity. China is developing its own AI exceptionalism alongside robotics, which will provide a confidence boost for its domestic economy. |
Productivity Technology China Robotics Innovation | |
| 2025 Q1 |
VolatilityMarket experienced extreme volatility in April with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 dropping 11% from March 31st to April 8th triggered by Trump's reciprocal tariffs announcement. VIX reached approximately 60 intraday during the Liberation Day sell-off, the highest reading since March 2020. Despite the volatility, markets recovered strongly with V-shaped recovery patterns. |
VIX Market Stress Recovery Tariffs Liberation Day |
Trade PolicyPresident Trump announced reciprocal tariffs on April 2nd termed Liberation Day, causing significant market disruption. The extreme tariffs from Liberation Day are unlikely to be implemented, and Trump provided relief through a 90-day tariff delay after reaching his threshold for market pain. This was identified as a self-inflicted policy wound that could be quickly reversed. |
Tariffs Liberation Day Policy Risk Trump Trade | |
Capital MarketsIPO market showing strong signs of recovery with 100 IPOs in first half of 2025. Marquee IPOs like CoreWeave and Circle have seen exceptional performance with gains of 359% and 900% respectively. If current pace continues, 2025 could become the most prolific year for IPOs since the 2021 boom. |
IPOs CoreWeave Circle Public Markets Issuance | |
DollarU.S. dollar declined 7% in the quarter and is down 12% year-to-date due to foreign repatriation of assets following Liberation Day, concerns about Federal Reserve independence, and expectations of expanding deficits from proposed tax cuts. Dollar weakness provided boost to Bitcoin and Gold while creating tailwind for international stocks. |
Dollar Weakness Currency Repatriation Fed Independence Deficits | |
GoldGold remains in a favorable position given the weakness in the U.S. dollar and the failure of either party to meaningfully address the U.S. deficit. Gold returned 5.8% in Q2 and 25.9% year-to-date, benefiting from dollar weakness and providing diversification benefits. |
Gold Dollar Hedge Diversification Deficit Safe Haven | |
CryptoBitcoin remains in a favorable position given U.S. dollar weakness and deficit concerns. FBTC returned 30.6% in Q2 and 129.9% year-to-date, with dollar weakness providing a powerful tailwind. Bitcoin stands as notable exception to historical underperformance versus U.S. large-cap technology stocks. |
Bitcoin FBTC Dollar Weakness Alternative Asset Institutional | |
| 2024 Q4 |
AIThe manager discusses the massive investments by tech giants like Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Google in AI infrastructure and training models, comparing it to the dot-com era. They note that while AI will increase productivity, the capabilities may be less than expected and no killer app has emerged yet to demonstrate high returns on investment. |
Infrastructure Training Productivity Investment Technology |
PharmaceuticalsThe portfolio is positioned in pharmaceuticals to take advantage of novel therapies addressing large market opportunities. The manager highlights Xeris Pharmaceuticals as an example, which develops treatments for Cushing's Syndrome and has shown strong revenue growth with high gross margins. |
Novel Therapies Cushing Revenue Margins | |
DiagnosticsThe manager owns MDxHealth, a prostate cancer diagnostics company that has grown revenue over 20% for 12 consecutive quarters. The company offers non-invasive tests that provide additional guidance for treatment decisions and trades at a significant discount to peers despite similar growth profiles. |
Prostate Cancer Testing Growth Valuation | |
| 2024 Q3 |
AIAI transformation driving massive infrastructure investments by cloud computing leaders and enterprises developing LLMs. The scale of investments is staggering with OpenAI committing $300 billion over five years for data center services. However, progress in monetizable end-use applications remains limited, creating a concerning gap between infrastructure spending and revenue-generating applications. |
Data Centers Cloud Infrastructure LLMs GPUs |
ChinaThree of four recent additions are Chinese companies including Alibaba, BYD, and H World. The market has consolidated for many years while underlying businesses have developed franchises, expanded profitability and put shareholder-friendly policies in place. A more conducive regulatory framework has helped the manager become more constructive on the region. |
E-commerce Electric Vehicles Hotels Cloud Regulatory | |
Electric VehiclesBYD delivered 4.3 million units in 2024, demonstrating remarkable acceleration from 600,000 units in 2021. The company's competitive advantage stems from deep vertical integration, designing and manufacturing key components in-house from batteries to semiconductors. This provides a 15-25% cost advantage over legacy automakers while maintaining margins not far from Toyota levels. |
Battery Supply Chain Vertical Integration Cost Advantage Market Share | |
ValuationsThe S&P 500's price-to-earnings multiple has increased substantially and now ranks at the 93rd historical percentile. Valuations for AI-related stocks have become particularly stretched, creating a dangerous situation with little room for error where much of the anticipated value is already priced in. |
Risk Appetite Bubble Earnings Multiples | |
| 2024 Q1 |
AIInvestment in Artificial Intelligence is creating demand in the supply chain including chips, software, and electricity. AI data centers consume extreme amounts of power which the current grid capacity is not suited for. Zeta Global's software platform combined with artificial intelligence helps companies market more efficiently by targeting ads based on specific demographics. |
Data Centers Power Advertising Software Infrastructure |
DefenseGraham Corp supplies critical propulsion equipment to the U.S. Navy for nuclear submarines and is the only supplier of the equipment they produce. The U.S. has created the Pacific Deterrence Initiative specifically aimed at deterring potential aggression from China by growing and upgrading its fleet of Columbia and Virginia Class Nuclear Submarines through 2050. |
Defense Spending Nuclear Submarines China Military | |
Energy TransitionThe retirement of coal-fired power plants is driving a multi-year cycle of new natural gas fired power plant construction. Tightening environmental regulation and favorable economics have propelled this transition. Argan operates in the industrial construction industry building natural gas powerplants for utility companies. |
Natural Gas Power Coal Environmental Utilities | |
BiotechnologyAxsome Therapeutics focuses on central nervous system conditions such as Alzheimer's Disease Agitation, Major Depressive Disorder, Migraines, and Fibromyalgia. Their products target conditions that impact over 150 million people in the United States with 3 products commercially available and 3 others in late stages of approval. |
CNS Pharmaceuticals FDA Depression Alzheimer's | |
| 2023 Q4 |
AIAI is driving power demand through data centers, creating opportunities for companies like Argan that build natural gas power plants. The rise of artificial intelligence has propelled demand for new power infrastructure as companies like Microsoft and Meta build AI data centers that consume extreme amounts of power. |
Data Centers Power Infrastructure Energy |
AdvertisingZeta Global operates in the marketing technology space, benefiting from multiple tailwinds in the advertising industry. Their AI-powered platform helps companies market more efficiently by targeting ads based on specific demographics across all channels including email, social media, web, chat, connected TV and video. |
Marketing Technology Targeting Platforms | |
Natural GasThe retirement of coal-fired power plants is driving a multi-year cycle of new natural gas fired power plant construction. Argan builds these powerplants for utility companies, with tightening environmental regulation and favorable economics supporting this transition. |
Power Plants Construction Utilities Infrastructure | |
Small CapsThe manager is choosing to fish in the small and mid-cap ponds where valuations are most attractive and below historical averages. While small and mid-cap stocks have participated in the overall market rally, there is still room for them to outperform given the valuation differences relative to large caps. |
Valuations Outperformance Mid Cap Opportunity | |
| 2023 Q3 |
DollarThe U.S. must sell roughly $2 trillion in new debt annually, and if foreign demand weakens, the dollar could weaken and rates could rise. The dollar currently sits near its long-term average value versus major peers, suggesting fair valuation, but fiscal discipline will matter for maintaining confidence. |
Currency Fiscal Debt Reserve Depreciation |
GoldGold has risen nearly ninefold over the past 20 years, roughly matching U.S. stock performance. It serves as a proven real-asset hedge that investors have historically turned to when currencies waver, and modest portfolio allocations may be beneficial as a hedge against possible dollar depreciation. |
Real Assets Hedge Store of Value Currency Safe Haven | |
CryptoBitcoin, though newer and more volatile than gold, has gained some acceptance as a store of value outside government control. It may play a limited role for some investors as a hedge against dollar depreciation, though it remains more volatile than traditional safe havens. |
Bitcoin Store of Value Volatility Government Hedge | |
| 2023 Q2 |
Private CreditTIFF discusses the proposed endowment tax changes that could force institutions to seek greater liquidity and rebalance portfolios, creating opportunities in private markets. The firm anticipates increased use of secondary markets and availability of capacity at previously closed PE and hedge fund managers. |
Private Equity Endowments Liquidity Secondary Markets Tax |
AIThe letter mentions that AI will accelerate growth and improve the efficiency of almost everything. Self-driving cars could become common this year, and humanoid robots will break onto the scene in a few years, making businesses that embrace these advancements more productive and profitable. |
Automation Productivity Growth Technology Innovation | |
InflationCPI inflation recently came in at 2.4% higher than last year, down from 2.9% at year-end. The letter discusses how inflation must remain under control to keep productivity high, and notes that year-over-year personal income growth through April 2025 is 2.94%. |
CPI Productivity Income Growth Economic Data | |
| 2023 Q1 |
Trade PolicyTrump administration implemented tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China with reciprocal tariffs planned for April 2nd. Tariffs are expected to negatively impact US GDP by 0.5-1% and potentially cause job losses of up to 200,000. The administration's approach could either result in tariff wars or free trade relationships depending on foreign country responses. |
Tariffs Trade Reciprocal GDP Inflation |
AIAI adoption is driving radical productivity improvements with software engineering contributions rising from 4% to 72% of work and drug development hypotheses testing increasing from 20 to 200 per year. ARK expects AI breakthroughs to turbocharge economic growth to 7%+ annually over the next 5-10 years. The manager views AI as a unique technology that will accelerate productivity gains and living standards. |
Productivity Software Development Growth Technology | |
VolatilityMarkets experiencing increased volatility due to rapid policy changes and uncertainty around tariffs, regulations, and geopolitical tensions. US stocks fell over 9% from peak gains while treasury bonds rallied 3%. The manager expects elevated volatility to continue as tariffs increase and negotiations proceed. |
Markets Uncertainty Policy Bonds Stocks |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Skybound Wealth Management | ZETA | Zeta Global Holdings Corp. | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | NYSE | advertising, Artificial Intelligence, Cookie-free, market share gains, Marketing Technology, SaaS, valuation discount | Login |
| Sep 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Skybound Wealth Management | BABA | Alibaba Group Holding Limited | Consumer Discretionary | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bull | NYSE | AI platform, capital returns, China, Cloud computing, digital infrastructure, e-commerce, LLM, market share, regulatory support | Login |
| Sep 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Skybound Wealth Management | 1211.HK | BYD Company Limited | Consumer Discretionary | Automobiles | Bull | HKEX | battery technology, China, Cost advantage, Electric Vehicles, global expansion, manufacturing, market share, vertical integration | Login |
| Sep 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Skybound Wealth Management | XERS | Xeris Pharmaceuticals Inc. | Health Care | Pharmaceuticals | Bull | NASDAQ | Biotech, Cushing's Syndrome, high margins, rare disease, Revenue Growth, sales force expansion, Specialty pharmaceuticals | Login |
| Sep 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Skybound Wealth Management | ELUT | Elutia Inc. | Health Care | Health Care Equipment & Supplies | Bear | NASDAQ | Asset Sale, capital allocation, Cardiac Devices, Management Disappointment, Medical devices, shareholder value | Login |
| Sep 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Skybound Wealth Management | HTHT | H World Group Limited | Consumer Discretionary | Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure | Bull | NASDAQ | Brand Penetration, China, franchise model, Hotels, market share, Middle Class, Unit economics, valuation discount | Login |
| Sep 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Skybound Wealth Management | MDT | Medtronic plc | Health Care | Health Care Equipment & Supplies | Bull | NYSE | CEO change, healthcare, innovation, Medical devices, operational efficiency, R&D Focus, spin-off, turnaround | Login |
| Sep 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Skybound Wealth Management | MDXH | MDxHealth | Health Care | Life Sciences Tools & Services | Bull | NASDAQ | Biotech, diagnostics, healthcare, Medical devices, Prostate Cancer, Revenue Growth, valuation discount | Login |
| Feb 10, 2024 | Fund Letters | Skybound Wealth Management | ZETA | Zeta Global Holdings Corp. | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | NYSE | advertising, AI-powered, Cookieless, market share gains, Marketing Technology, Multi-channel, Privacy Compliance, SaaS | Login |
| Feb 10, 2024 | Fund Letters | Skybound Wealth Management | AXSM | Axsome Therapeutics Inc. | Health Care | Biotechnology | Bull | NASDAQ | acquisition target, Alzheimer’s, biotechnology, CNS disorders, Commercial Stage, Depression Treatment, FDA-approved, Migraine | Login |
| Feb 10, 2024 | Fund Letters | Skybound Wealth Management | GHM | Graham Corp. | Industrials | Machinery | Bull | NYSE | Defense Contractor, Industrial Equipment, Monopoly, Navy, Nuclear Submarines, Pacific Deterrence, predictable revenue, Pricing power | Login |
| Feb 10, 2024 | Fund Letters | Skybound Wealth Management | AGX | Argan Inc. | Industrials | Construction & Engineering | Bull | NYSE | AI data centers, Cyclical, energy transition, Industrial Construction, infrastructure, natural gas, Power Plants, utilities | Login |
| Oct 1, 2024 | Fund Letters | Skybound Wealth Management | AGX | Argan Inc. | Capital Goods | Construction & Engineering | Bull | NYSE | AI infrastructure, data centers, dividend yield, energy transition, Industrial Construction, Natural Gas Power Plants, Power Grid, project backlog, Utility Construction | Login |
| Oct 1, 2024 | Fund Letters | Skybound Wealth Management | ZETA | Zeta Global Holdings Corp. | Software & Services | Application Software | Bull | NASDAQ | advertising platform, Artificial Intelligence, Cookie-free Technology, market share gains, Marketing Technology, Revenue Growth, SaaS, Software | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| AMZN | One company we own that we think has unique positioning to benefit from both the infrastructure and application layers is Amazon. Amazon's logistical prowess is one of the foremost moats in business today and it can and will be enhanced with AI. The company will do this in multiple ways, with better orchestration of its logistics assets and underlying cargo, as well as the buildout of more capable, sophisticated and robust robotics. Amazon is singularly well positioned to dominate the coordination layer, with AI's help, across its entire logistics network. |
| GOOGL | In the third quarter, Google, Kairos Power, and the Tennessee Valley Authority announced a major collaboration centered on a novel power purchase agreement. Google followed this announcement with another significant step forward. On October 27, Google and NextEra Energy announced plans to restart the Duane Arnold Energy Center. |
| META | On January 9, Meta Platforms unveiled a new agreement with Vistra—the largest generator of competitive electricity in the United States—as well as with TerraPower and Oklo. The announcement builds on Meta's agreement last year with Constellation Energy and positions the company to become one of the largest corporate purchasers of nuclear-generated electricity in the United States. |
| MSFT | MSFT was a detractor in 4Q25 following its fiscal first-quarter 2026 earnings report released on October 29. While results were better than expected operationally, investor reaction was driven by guidance and capital expenditure intensity rather than headline performance. Revenue grew 17% year-over-year, exceeding consensus expectations, and Azure revenue increased 39% year-over-year, also ahead of estimates. However, management guided to a sequential deceleration in Azure growth in fiscal Q2, signaling some moderation after a period of exceptional demand. |
| ORCL | Investor enthusiasm for Oracle's stock in calendar year 2025 was initially driven by several multi-billion-dollar contracts it signed with leading AI companies, including OpenAI and Meta. However, in Q4 sentiment for ORCL's growth prospects shifted to skepticism, as investors began to scrutinize the return profile of the substantial capital investments required to support the approximately $500 billion of contracts signed by Oracle. Given the widening range of potential outcomes associated with Oracle's elevated capital needs, we reduced our position in ORCL during Q4. |
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