| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
Q1 2026 witnessed a dramatic market rotation as the Iran conflict sent crude oil prices surging 77%, driving Energy to its second-best performance since 1972 and catalyzing a broad shift toward Value sectors. The S&P 500 declined 4.6% in its worst quarter since Q3 2022, with large-cap growth particularly hard hit as the Russell 1000 Growth dropped 9.9%. Value stocks outperformed across all market caps as investors rotated into defensive and inflation-resilient areas including Materials, Utilities, and Consumer Staples. Commodities extended their secular bull market with eight consecutive months of 7%+ gains, while market breadth remained notable with 56% of S&P 500 stocks outperforming the index. The geopolitical crisis threatens to create a stagflationary environment, potentially forcing the Federal Reserve to delay rate cuts and creating headwinds for economic growth. Despite recent equity resilience, technical indicators show insufficient breadth and momentum for a sustained bullish trend, with continued volatility expected ahead of midterm elections.
Q1 2026 marked a decisive rotation toward Value and inflation-beneficiary sectors, driven by the Iran conflict that sent crude oil prices surging 77% and created a stagflationary backdrop across global markets.
More volatility continues to be the outlook on equities. The Federal Reserve would likely remain cautious and delay rate cuts, creating a more difficult backdrop for both the U.S. economy and financial markets. Despite heightened uncertainty from geopolitical tensions, past patterns suggest markets can remain resilient as long as global growth avoids a sharp downturn, though higher oil prices could still modestly reduce global growth.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8 2026 | 2026 Q1 | CVX, XOM | commodities, energy, Geopolitical, inflation, Iran, oil, value | - | Q1 2026 delivered a stark Value rotation as Iran conflict drove oil up 77% and Energy to multi-decade highs. Growth stocks collapsed while defensive sectors gained amid stagflation fears. Commodities extended their bull run with broad-based strength. Fed rate cuts now delayed, creating challenging backdrop for equities despite recent resilience. |
| Jan 16 2026 | 2025 Q4 | - | Fed, growth, inflation, international, rates, Sectors, value | - | Q4 2025 marked a notable rotation from Growth to Value leadership as equities continued outperforming other asset classes. International markets led U.S. benchmarks while sector performance broadened beyond mega-cap technology. Fed rate cuts and easing financial conditions supported markets, with cyclical Value sectors positioned to benefit from continued economic momentum and monetary easing in 2026. |
| Oct 14 2025 | 2025 Q3 | AAPL, GOOGL, NVDA, TSLA | AI, emerging markets, gold, growth, liquidity, semiconductors, small caps, technology | - | Strong Q3 rally driven by liquidity and mega-cap technology leadership despite stretched valuations and softening labor markets. Emerging markets led global gains with China up 19% while gold surged 127%. Fed resumed rate cuts as unemployment rose to 4.3%. Firm increasing emerging markets exposure amid cautious optimism for year-end momentum. |
| Apr 8 2025 | 2025 Q1 | DPLM.L, HARV.HE, LOTB.BR, POOL | Compounding, growth, Quality, Roiic, value | - | The Compounding Tortoise focuses on sustainable quality compounding, delivering +10.08% year-to-date through companies with high returns on incremental invested capital. The fully invested portfolio emphasizes strong free cash flow generation and rational capital allocation over financial engineering, targeting double-digit returns despite FX headwinds and tariff uncertainty. |
| Jan 9 2025 | 2024 Q4 | - | compounders, growth, long-term, Quality, volatility | - | Quality-focused manager delivered 4.21% in volatile Q1 2025, maintaining discipline amid tariff uncertainty and market noise. Portfolio companies showed 15% EBITA growth in 2024, demonstrating resilience through cycles. Strategy emphasizes deeper research on existing high-quality compounders rather than new acquisitions, focusing on long-term business fundamentals over short-term volatility. |
| Oct 9 2024 | 2024 Q3 | AOR, BND, SPY, VEA, VWO | Diversified, Elections, ETFs, Fed policy, Recession, risk management, Technical Analysis | - | Stonehearth delivered strong Q3 returns using systematic risk management and Fed policy analysis. With rate cuts beginning and recession probability at only 13.8%, technical indicators support their overweight equity positioning. Their 49-indicator risk model turned bullish during the quarter, confirming current allocation strategy across diversified portfolios. |
| Jul 11 2024 | 2024 Q2 | BND, VOO, VXUS | AI, Bonds, healthcare, interest rates, international, technology | - | Miller Wealth Management reports solid Q3 performance with U.S. stocks up 5.89% and international markets gaining 7.28%. AI enthusiasm continues driving tech sector gains while Fed rate cuts support bonds. Despite monitoring global conflicts, tariffs, and AI disruption, the firm emphasizes maintaining consistent investment convictions through changing market conditions. |
| Apr 12 2024 | 2024 Q1 | - | AI, defense, energy, inflation, technology, Trade Policy | - | Markets recovered from April tariff-driven selloffs to hit all-time highs by quarter-end. Six key drivers support performance despite geopolitical uncertainty: AI boom, energy sector growth, medical advances, strong consumer spending, NATO defense spending, and tight labor markets. Manager watches Fed policy, tariff negotiations, and new federal legislation impacts while maintaining disciplined investment approach. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 |
OilWest Texas Intermediate crude surged more than 50% in March and gained 77% in Q1 due to the Iran conflict and Middle East disruptions. Energy was the clear standout sector with its second strongest performance since 1972. Crude's path hinges on how long the Iranian conflict persists and how long the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. |
Energy Crude Iran Geopolitical Inflation |
ValueValue stocks outperformed growth across all market caps during Q1, with leadership shifting toward Value-oriented sectors including Materials, Utilities, Consumer Staples, Industrials, and Real Estate. Large-cap growth stocks were hit especially hard, with the Russell 1000 Growth dropping 9.9%, one of the poorest performances relative to value since 1979. |
Growth Rotation Defensive Inflation Rates | |
CommoditiesCommodities were up 8.3% in March, the eighth straight month of gains of more than 7%. The asset class appears to be in a maturing but still intact secular bull market, with important divergences across sectors. March delivered the strongest commodity breadth in over a year as 76% of commodities tracked posted gains. |
Bull Market Breadth Inflation Energy Metals | |
InflationHigher oil prices threaten to lift inflation across major economies, with historically a 10% rise in oil prices adding about 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points to inflation. This compounds affordability challenges and could lead to stagflationary environment, causing the Federal Reserve to remain cautious and delay rate cuts. |
Oil Stagflation Rates Fed Growth | |
| 2025 Q4 |
TechnologyThe Fund invests at least 80% of net assets in technology companies across multiple sub-industries including IT consulting, internet services, application software, communications equipment, semiconductors, and interactive media. The portfolio focuses on companies with sector-leading cash flows, attractive valuations, and sustainable profitability prospects. |
Software Hardware Semiconductors Internet Communications |
| 2025 Q3 |
AITechnology giants drove market concentration to record levels with mega-cap strength defining the quarter. Utilities performed well supported by continued investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure. Information Technology led gains in multiple regions including China, Taiwan, and South Korea. |
Technology Infrastructure Semiconductors Data Centers Cloud |
GoldMetals and Mining led all industries with a 127% surge in Gold driving performance. South Africa advanced 16.0% led by Metals & Mining sector. Steel and Copper also posted strong advances alongside gold's exceptional performance. |
Gold Metals Mining Commodities Steel | |
Emerging MarketsEmerging markets led global equity gains climbing 11.6% and contributing nine of the top ten performing markets in Q3. China gained 19.1% for the quarter and 38.3% year-to-date. The document notes increasing emerging markets equity exposure as a strategic positioning. |
China Taiwan South Korea Asia Global | |
| 2025 Q1 |
QualityThe manager emphasizes sustainable quality compounding with focus on companies achieving high returns on incremental invested capital (>20/25%). They stress the importance of measuring free cash flow performance, proper capital allocation management, and understanding the ROIIC framework for value creation. |
ROIIC Compounding Capital Allocation Free Cash Flow Value Creation |
| 2024 Q4 |
QualityThe manager focuses on high-quality compounders that delivered 15.0% EBITA per share growth in 2024. They emphasize companies that show resilience and continue thriving through volatile periods, with a focus on business longevity rather than short-term market movements. |
Compounders EBITA Resilience Longevity Quality Growth |
| 2024 Q3 |
Risk ManagementThe firm employs a comprehensive hedging protocol using 49 different indicators to monitor market risk and determine appropriate portfolio positioning. Their flagship risk model moved from neutral to bullish during the quarter, supporting their overweight stock exposure. |
Hedging Risk Model Indicators Portfolio Exposure |
| 2024 Q2 |
AIInvestor enthusiasm has remained high around artificial intelligence and cloud infrastructure, with the largest companies investing substantial dollars into AI progress. The team is watching developments in the quickly changing AI and digital landscape. |
Cloud Technology Investment Infrastructure |
RatesThe Federal Reserve decided to reduce short-term rates for the first time this year, with median projections showing a downward trend of about 100 basis points by 2025. Lower borrowing costs could boost corporate and real estate profitability. |
Federal Reserve SOFR Borrowing Corporate Real Estate | |
| 2024 Q1 |
AIMost companies have adopted AI in some form. The largest U.S. companies are investing billions into AI and are already benefiting from automation, productivity, and personal assistance services. |
Technology Automation Productivity |
Defense SpendingWhile the U.S. has pulled back from arms support in Ukraine, European countries have picked up the ticket and defense companies are benefiting from it. |
NATO Ukraine Defense |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Elevator Pitches found | ||||||||||
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| XOM | major companies like Exxon and Chevron posted sizable gains and helped drive overall index performance |
| CVX | major companies like Exxon and Chevron posted sizable gains and helped drive overall index performance |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Sells Data | ||||||
| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| No industry data available | |||
