| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
Horizon Kinetics maintains their core value investing philosophy while expanding into private market opportunities that align with their long-term approach. The firm deliberately avoids direct AI-IT investments, instead focusing on companies controlling critical resources like natural gas, water, and land needed for data center infrastructure. Their largest holdings include exchanges, royalty companies, and asset-light businesses with high returns on equity that benefit from inflation. Key positions include Texas Pacific Land, Miami International Holdings, and various Permian Basin water and land infrastructure companies. The firm sees a logical inconsistency in AI sector forecasts, where either chip makers face declining revenues or IT companies cannot reduce capital spending. They believe institutional capital will eventually recognize the value of resource-controlling companies that have minimal index presence. The approach emphasizes making time work for investors through unbroken compounding rather than frequent trading, with portfolio companies offering near-perpetual business models and sustainable competitive advantages.
Long-horizon value investing focused on companies that control necessary and limiting resources for major economic trends, particularly AI infrastructure buildout, while avoiding direct exposure to technology companies that face competitive and capital allocation pressures.
The firm expresses confidence in their positioning, emphasizing they are where they want to be with no institutional imperative to participate in popular market sectors. They expect investment capital to flow in different directions once resource constraints for AI-IT companies become apparent to the broader investment community.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11 2026 | 2025 Q4 | AAPL, AMD, AMZN, AVGO, GOOGL, ICE, LB, META, MIAX, MSFT, NVDA, ORCL, STR, TPL, VNOM, WTTR | AI, Compounding, energy, Exchanges, long-term, private markets, value, water | - | The firm avoids direct AI-IT company investments but focuses on beneficiaries of AI infrastructure buildout. They invest in companies controlling necessary resources like natural gas,… |
| Oct 27 2025 | 2025 Q3 | ALS CN, EME, LB, MSB, SJT, TRC, WBI | gold, inflation, Natural Gas, Scarcity, water |
WPM CN ALS CN SJT MESABI WPM CN ALS CN SJT MESABI |
The letter explored localized inflation as a defining macro theme, driven by constrained supply in resources like gold, potash, and natural gas. Horizon Kinetics expects… |
| Aug 7 2025 | 2025 Q2 | 6544 JP, AB, TPL | commodities, energy, inflation, Pricing Power, real assets |
6544 JP AB |
- |
| May 5 2025 | 2025 Q1 | - | - | - | - |
| Jan 28 2025 | 2024 Q4 | - | - | - | - |
| Oct 31 2024 | 2024 Q3 | - | - | - | - |
| Jul 27 2024 | 2024 Q2 | - | - | - | - |
| May 18 2024 | 2024 Q1 | GBTC, GLW, MU, TPL | - | - | - |
| Jan 27 2024 | 2023 Q4 | - | - | - | - |
| Oct 11 2023 | 2023 Q3 | - | - | - | - |
| Jul 20 2023 | 2023 Q2 | AAPL, AMZN, BSX IND, CMS, MSFT, PEP | - | - | - |
| Apr 5 2023 | 2023 Q1 | CVEO, TPL | - | - | - |
| Jan 20 2023 | 2022 Q4 | - | - | - | - |
| Oct 10 2022 | 2022 Q3 | ALS CN, LIF CN, PCH, RYN, TPL | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIThe extended federal government shutdown added volatility during what was otherwise a risk-on environment, with a mid-quarter shift in market behavior for AI-related equities as the exuberant narrative evolved to one more balanced in assessing the technology's enormous potential against staggering capital spending plans and high expectations. The team initiated a position in Credo Technology as a more diversified way to gain exposure to strong trends in AI-connectivity. |
Connectivity Semiconductors Infrastructure Capital Spending |
EnergyEnergy plays a critical role in AI infrastructure economics, with data centers becoming major electricity consumers. Rising power costs compress margins while grid constraints and regulatory scrutiny influence deployment timelines. The manager emphasizes that unlike software-driven growth, AI compute cannot be scaled independently of physical energy reality. |
Data Centers Grid Power Infrastructure Utilities | |
ExchangesLong history of investing in securities exchanges from TPL to MIAX to ICE. The firm views exchanges as blue-chip businesses with near-perpetual longevity that don't fail or get displaced. |
Securities Exchanges Trading Clearing Technology | |
ValueManager emphasizes investing in controlled companies trading at significant discounts to NAV, with European holding companies showing discounts of 30-68%. The strategy focuses on securities mispricing where real value exists, contrasting with overvalued technology stocks. |
Discounts NAV Mispricing Undervalued Controlled | |
WaterBQE Water secured a landmark 20-year contract with the BC government to operate the Britannia Mine Water Treatment Plant, representing the largest operations agreement in company history for treating mine-impacted water. |
Water Treatment Mining Environmental Operations | |
| 2025 Q3 |
InflationInflation has continued to be a persistent feature in Japan and has prompted changes in both corporate and consumer behavior. Importantly, inflation has fed through to corporate earnings and equity performance. Companies that have successfully passed on higher costs to consumers have benefited from improved operating margins. |
Inflation Corporate Earnings Operating Margins Consumer Behavior Cost Pass-through |
Natural GasNorth American gas showed strength on cold weather despite bearish sentiment. Production growth concentrated in Permian Basin while other shales declined. Supply growth expected to plateau as Permian oil production slows, setting stage for higher prices as LNG demand expands. |
Shale Permian LNG Weather | |
Scarcity |
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| 2025 Q2 |
EnergyEnergy plays a central role in the manager's analysis, both as a historical lesson from 2014-15 oil collapse and as a current constraint on AI infrastructure. Data centers have become massive electricity consumers with economics highly sensitive to power pricing and grid reliability. Rising electricity prices in data-center-heavy regions and utility challenges in expanding capacity create physical constraints that complicate AI scalability assumptions. |
Data Centers Grid Utilities Power Infrastructure |
InflationInflation has continued to be a persistent feature in Japan and has prompted changes in both corporate and consumer behavior. Importantly, inflation has fed through to corporate earnings and equity performance. Companies that have successfully passed on higher costs to consumers have benefited from improved operating margins. |
Inflation Corporate Earnings Operating Margins Consumer Behavior Cost Pass-through |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2025 | Fund Letters | Murray Stahl | WPM CN | Wheaton Precious Metals | Materials | Precious Metals & Mining | Bull | TSX | cashflow, compounding, efficiency, Gold, inflation, inflation hedge, Royalty | Login |
| Oct 27, 2025 | Fund Letters | Murray Stahl | ALS CN | Altius Minerals | Materials | Diversified Metals & Mining | Bull | TSX | Copper, diversification, inflation, Potash, renewables, Resources, Royalty | Login |
| Oct 27, 2025 | Fund Letters | Murray Stahl | SJT | San Juan Basin Royalty Trust | Energy | Oil & Gas Exploration & Production | Bull | NYSE | contrarian, Distribution, natural gas, recovery, Reserves, Royalty, yield | Login |
| Oct 27, 2025 | Fund Letters | Murray Stahl | MESABI | Mesabi Trust | Materials | Iron & Steel | Bull | NYSE | arbitration, inflation, Iron, materials, Royalty, Steel, valuation | Login |
| Oct 27, 2025 | Fund Letters | Murray Stahl | WPM CN | Wheaton Precious Metals | Materials | Precious Metals & Mining | Bull | NYSE | cashflow, compounding, efficiency, Gold, inflation, inflation hedge, Royalty | Login |
| Oct 27, 2025 | Fund Letters | Murray Stahl | ALS CN | Altius Minerals | Materials | Diversified Metals & Mining | Bull | NYSE | Copper, diversification, inflation, Potash, renewables, Resources, Royalty | Login |
| Oct 27, 2025 | Fund Letters | Murray Stahl | SJT | San Juan Basin Royalty Trust | Energy | Oil & Gas Exploration & Production | Bull | NYSE | contrarian, Distribution, natural gas, recovery, Reserves, Royalty, yield | Login |
| Oct 27, 2025 | Fund Letters | Murray Stahl | MESABI | Mesabi Trust | Materials | Iron & Steel | Bull | NYSE | arbitration, inflation, Iron, materials, Royalty, Steel, valuation | Login |
| Aug 7, 2025 | Fund Letters | Murray Stahl | 6544 JP | Japan Elevator Service Holdings Co.,Ltd. | Industrials | Specialty Business Services | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | compounding, Elevators, Japan, Maintenance, Margins, services | Login |
| Aug 7, 2025 | Fund Letters | Murray Stahl | AB | AllianceBernstein Holding L.P. | Financials | Capital Markets | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Assetmanagement, dividends, Fees, Income, Inflows, valuation | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| AAPL | AAPL shares rose in 4Q25 following better-than-feared iPhone 17 sell-through trends and stronger Services momentum. The company reported that early adoption of its on-device AI features exceeded internal expectations, particularly in North America and Europe, where attach rates for Pro models remained elevated. Wearables also returned to growth, helped by new health features and improved battery life. |
| AMD | AMD was mentioned as an example of businesses that already make money, have shown they can do so through cycles and are priced so that we do not need everything to go right. |
| AMZN | This quarter, we took profits in our hyperscaler portfolio companies (Amazon and Google) and increased our position in NVIDIA. |
| AVGO | During the quarter, we initiated a below-average weight position in leading semiconductor and infrastructure software company Broadcom. Broadcom's ongoing transformation from a provider of custom ASICs to a full rack-scale solutions vendor, including scale-up networking, marks a significant improvement in its strategic positioning compared to earlier in the year. This strategic evolution has been validated by recent product launches, such as the Scale-up Ethernet solution, and committed orders from major customers like Anthropic. |
| GOOGL | In the third quarter, Google, Kairos Power, and the Tennessee Valley Authority announced a major collaboration centered on a novel power purchase agreement. Google followed this announcement with another significant step forward. On October 27, Google and NextEra Energy announced plans to restart the Duane Arnold Energy Center. |
| ICE | Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) is a long-term holding and remains a top 10 position in the Fund. ICE's share price has been under pressure, largely due to AI-related concerns. The share price has already recovered 15% from recent lows. |
| META | On January 9, Meta Platforms unveiled a new agreement with Vistra—the largest generator of competitive electricity in the United States—as well as with TerraPower and Oklo. The announcement builds on Meta's agreement last year with Constellation Energy and positions the company to become one of the largest corporate purchasers of nuclear-generated electricity in the United States. |
| MIAX | Today, most Horizon Kinetics clients own shares of a development-stage company in which HK did participate as a private-market insider long before its August 2025 IPO. This is Miami International Holdings (MIAX). MIAX, like most IPOs, has yet to achieve normalized scale economies. But unlike most IPOs, it is of a blue-chip character with near-perpetual expected longevity. As the first significant new U.S.-licensed securities exchange in almost two decades, it has the competitive advantage of a latest-technology, built-to-suit trading and information platform, and so is expanding very rapidly. Revenue through September 2025 is well over 20% above last year. |
| MSFT | MSFT was a detractor in 4Q25 following its fiscal first-quarter 2026 earnings report released on October 29. While results were better than expected operationally, investor reaction was driven by guidance and capital expenditure intensity rather than headline performance. Revenue grew 17% year-over-year, exceeding consensus expectations, and Azure revenue increased 39% year-over-year, also ahead of estimates. However, management guided to a sequential deceleration in Azure growth in fiscal Q2, signaling some moderation after a period of exceptional demand. |
| NVDA | Capital spending from Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, OpenAI, and more have led to Nvidia becoming the Rrst 5 trillion market cap company. |
| ORCL | Investor enthusiasm for Oracle's stock in calendar year 2025 was initially driven by several multi-billion-dollar contracts it signed with leading AI companies, including OpenAI and Meta. However, in Q4 sentiment for ORCL's growth prospects shifted to skepticism, as investors began to scrutinize the return profile of the substantial capital investments required to support the approximately $500 billion of contracts signed by Oracle. Given the widening range of potential outcomes associated with Oracle's elevated capital needs, we reduced our position in ORCL during Q4. |
| TPL | That TPL report had neither a price nor holding period target. It did describe a near-perpetuity of friction-free internal compounding that was not exposed to the usual business expenses and risks of making acquisitions, new product development or marketing. It was simply an entity that directed the free cash flow from its passively derived revenues toward the repurchase of its undervalued shares. From the initial recommendation more than 30 years ago, the annualized price appreciation to date has been 25%. Texas Pacific Land Corp. announced on December 17 that it concluded an agreement with a private company known as Bolt Data & Energy to develop large-scale data center campuses and related infrastructure across TPL land. |
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