| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 31.3% | 4.8% | 54.3% |
| 2025 | 2024 |
|---|---|
| 54.3% | 45.6% |
Pernas Portfolio delivered exceptional performance in 2025, outperforming the S&P 500 by 36.4% with broad participation across holdings. The year proved highly volatile and instructive, beginning with California fires and followed by market dislocation after Trump's Liberation Day announcement, which caught the manager flat-footed and led to raising cash to 30%. Despite initial drawdowns, the portfolio recovered as AI momentum accelerated and stock selection generated outsized alpha. Key lessons emerged from positions like Card Factory, where management missteps and false stability led to inaction, and Paysafe, where initial sizing was too aggressive given high leverage. The manager argues that traditional mean reversion strategies are increasingly flawed in today's non-stationary environment, where AI transformation, structural economic changes, and central bank intervention create conditions where past patterns are unlikely to reassert. Looking forward, the focus remains on a barbell strategy of owning clear AI winners alongside companies mislabeled as AI losers, with the AI-driven capex cycle expected to persist over the next 12-16 months.
In an era of rapidly increasing dynamism where the future will not resemble the past, smaller-cap companies offer outsized opportunities due to their ability to pivot quickly, while traditional mean reversion strategies are increasingly flawed in a non-stationary environment shaped by AI transformation, structural economic changes, and evolving geopolitical dynamics.
The manager expects the AI-driven capex cycle to persist over the next 12-16 months and believes comparisons to the dot-com or telecom boom/bust are highly misplaced. They anticipate maintaining focus on a barbell strategy of AI winners and mislabeled AI losers, while continuing to review potential opportunities among companies incorrectly categorized as AI losers.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20 2026 | 2025 Q4 | ADBE, APLD, CARD.L, CELH, META, NKE, PSFE, SEMR, STX | AI, defense, Mean reversion, small caps, technology, value | - | AI represents a consequential technological shift reshaping business and consumer behaviors. The AI-driven capex cycle is expected to persist over the next 12-16 months. The… |
| Oct 29 2025 | 2025 Q3 | - | Artificial Intelligence, Capex, Data centers, infrastructure, semiconductors |
NVDA NVDA |
The portfolio outperformed the S&P 500 by over 23%, led by AI-related holdings such as APLD and CGEH. The letter analyzed whether the current AI… |
| Jul 18 2025 | 2025 Q2 | - | currency diversification, Europe, fiscal policy, risk premiums, Rotation | - | The letter emphasizes market regime shifts marked by fiscal expansion, policy risk, and rotation away from U.S. dominance. Management highlights European equity outperformance, currency diversification,… |
| Apr 19 2025 | 2025 Q1 | - | - | - | - |
| Jan 24 2025 | 2024 Q4 | DOCS LN, DUOL, RRGB | - | - | - |
| Oct 8 2024 | 2024 Q3 | - | - | - | - |
| Jul 20 2024 | 2024 Q2 | UNFI, XMTR | - | - | - |
| May 3 2024 | 2024 Q1 | AWE LN | - | - | - |
| Aug 1 2024 | 2023 Q4 | - | - | - | - |
| Oct 14 2023 | 2023 Q3 | E2N GR, NRP, RELY | - | - | - |
| Jul 14 2023 | 2023 Q2 | META, S4M GR, ZUMZ | - | - | - |
| Apr 14 2023 | 2023 Q1 | E2N GR, META | - | - | - |
| Feb 28 2023 | 2022 Q4 | - | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
DefenseThe team initiated a position in Curtiss-Wright, believing the company is entering a period where multiple near-term growth drivers are converging, including rising defense budgets, commercial aerospace production ramps, nuclear power plant life extensions and new builds, and submarine production. |
Defense Budgets Aerospace Nuclear Submarines | |
Small CapsSmall caps getting strong start in 2026 supported by easing monetary conditions and constructive fiscal backdrop. Small caps more sensitive to economic cyclicality which is overdue for expansion. Expected to grow at better pace than large caps in 2026 after long period of underperformance. |
Value Growth Cyclical Monetary Policy Fiscal Policy | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
InfrastructureDigital 9 Infrastructure holds telecom infrastructure assets including Arqiva stake. Despite poor 2025 performance, potential capital returns and asset sales could unlock value. Infrastructure assets provide defensive characteristics. |
Telecom Infrastructure Digital Infrastructure | |
| 2025 Q2 |
Rotation |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2025 | Fund Letters | Deiya Pernas | NVDA | NVIDIA Corp. | Information Technology | Semiconductors & AI Hardware | Bull | NASDAQ | AI, CapEx, data centers, Demand, GPUs, semiconductors, Utilization | Login |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Fund Letters | Deiya Pernas | NVDA | NVIDIA Corp. | Information Technology | Semiconductors & AI Hardware | Bull | NASDAQ | AI, CapEx, data centers, Demand, GPUs, semiconductors, Utilization | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| ADBE | By looking at their Rnancials, FactSet, PayPal, Adobe, and Salesforce seem to be doing Rne. The market, however, is reading subdued revenue growth as a sign of increased competition on their core oSerings. These companies' outlooks look more di'cult than their past. |
| APLD | Some of our top performing closed positions: APLD 168% |
| CARD.L | Card Factory, after a harsh profit warning blamed on weaker high street footfall. What's less clear is whether this signals a tough retail environment or something more troubling in the company's competitive position. For now, we've let sleeping dogs lie. The next year should make it clear whether the dog's just napping or quietly chewing through the furniture. |
| CELH | One such idea that we bought in the last quarter is Celsius Holdings. We will refrain from a full writeup today, given Elliot recently presented at MOI Global's Best Ideas 2026 Conference. |
| META | On January 9, Meta Platforms unveiled a new agreement with Vistra—the largest generator of competitive electricity in the United States—as well as with TerraPower and Oklo. The announcement builds on Meta's agreement last year with Constellation Energy and positions the company to become one of the largest corporate purchasers of nuclear-generated electricity in the United States. |
| NKE | Notable positive contributions from the Fund's short book in December include National Vision Holdings, Nike, and Starbucks. |
| PSFE | The largest detractor from performance was Paysafe (United Kingdom). The online payments provider reported a weak quarter, with Digital Wallets growing more slowly than anticipated and margins in the Merchant Solutions segment coming under pressure. Given ongoing regulatory headwinds and a growth trajectory that continues to fall short of expectations, our investment team chose to exit the position. |
| SEMR | Some of our top performing closed positions: SEMR 68%. Four months ago we invested in Semrush as an example of a company we believed would be an AI winner despite the market aggressively selling the stock on AI fears. Shortly thereafter, the company was acquired by Adobe at a 78% premium to bolster its AI capabilities, validating that view. |
| STX | Some of our top performing closed positions: STX 53% |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Sells Data | ||||||
| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
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| No industry data available | |||
