| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5% | - | 18.6% |
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18.6% | 11.7% | 20.0% | 9.1% | 36.2% | 22.8% |
CDT Capital Management delivered another strong year in 2025 with 18.6% net returns, continuing their five-year track record of outperformance against the S&P 500. Since inception, the fund has compounded capital at 22.5% annually versus the benchmark's 16.2%, generating 12.81% of alpha through their disciplined long-only approach. The strategy centers on proprietary insider activity algorithms that screen for high-conviction insider purchasing, leading to investments across diverse sectors from pharmaceuticals to semiconductors. Their sophisticated two-layer risk management system proved effective during 2025's market volatility, with quantitative models driving cash reserve decisions that enabled opportunistic deployment during the April tariff-induced decline and November market swings. Key concerns include private credit accounting practices and AI growth constraints from resource limitations. The fund currently maintains 13.5% cash reserves based on elevated market valuations offset by strong insider sentiment. Management expresses confidence entering 2026 with significant momentum and continued commitment to their Above the Clouds investment philosophy.
CDT employs a disciplined long-only strategy focused on investing in above-average people at companies producing reliable cash flows at below-average prices, leveraging proprietary insider activity algorithms and sophisticated two-layer risk management to generate consistent alpha while protecting capital during market turbulence.
Manager expresses excitement for 2026 with tremendous momentum entering the year, committed to continued pursuit of Investing Above the Clouds strategy while acknowledging new challenges and opportunities ahead.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 5 2026 | 2025 Q4 | SP500TR, ZBRA | alpha, CashFlow, Insider, Quality, risk management | - | CDT delivered 18.6% net returns in 2025, extending their five-year alpha generation streak through disciplined insider-driven stock selection and quantitative risk management. Their two-layer risk system enabled opportunistic deployment during market volatility while maintaining protection. Despite concerns over private credit risks and AI constraints, strong insider sentiment supports current 13.5% cash positioning entering 2026. |
| Oct 6 2025 | 2025 Q3 | META, NVDA, PLTR | AI, Bubble, Cash, Insiders, risk management, Valuations | PLTR US | CDT's manager warns that risk is too expensive with markets at Dot Com bubble-like valuations and AI stocks trading at dangerous multiples. Corporate insiders are selling while retail investors chase momentum. The fund is building cash reserves toward mid-teens levels, positioning defensively until better risk-adjusted opportunities emerge in the market. |
| Jul 31 2025 | 2025 Q2 | AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA | Data, Labor, quantitative, technology, Trade | - | CDT's quantitative strategy outperformed year-to-date despite July lag, using proprietary insider sentiment and alternative labor data to navigate markets. Trade deal relief boosted markets but massive BLS job revisions exposed economic weakness. Insider activity flatlining since May signals defensive positioning ahead. Mag 7 concentration creates systemic risk at 31% of S&P 500. |
| Mar 31 2025 | 2025 Q1 | - | inflation, insider activity, Long-only, Market Correction, reserves, risk management, volatility | - | CDT Capital Management outperformed during March's market correction by following insider buying signals and managing cash reserves dynamically. Their CDT 7 insider-focused portfolio gained 4% year-to-date while the Magnificent 7 fell 15.8%. The fund deployed capital from 27% to 18% cash as insider activity increased during the correction, demonstrating their systematic risk management approach. |
| Jan 5 2025 | 2024 Q4 | AAPL, SPY, T, TSLA | AI, Concentration, ETFs, Insider Trading, risk management, Valuations, value | - | CDT identifies market commonsense crisis with Mag 7 trading at unsustainable AI-driven valuations while passive ETF flows create dangerous concentration bubble. Quantitative models show 70% correction probability. Manager positions defensively with 16% cash while finding value in insider-favored stocks across 40 holdings yielding 8.2%. Strategy buffers downside while capturing upside from undervalued opportunities. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AICDT has incorporated AI into day-to-day operations through partnership with DNSC.AI to enhance their insider activity edge. However, they express concern about AI growth constraints including resource limitations for data center construction and financial constraints that could halt AI company growth altogether. |
Artificial Intelligence Data Centers Growth Constraints |
Private CreditCDT identifies private credit accounting as a major systemic risk, noting that manager compensation tied to self-determined asset values creates massive distortions. They highlight how Apollo and KKR mark identical loans at significantly different values, with the market potentially growing to $3T by 2028. |
Private Credit Systemic Risk Asset Valuation | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIManager expresses concern about AI investment bubble, citing excessive valuations and circular vendor financing. Questions sustainability of current AI spending levels and compares current market dynamics to Dot Com bubble. |
Artificial Intelligence Bubble Valuations Investment |
Risk AppetiteManager observes elevated risk appetite in markets with investors going all-in on AI and growth stocks. Notes that risk is now expensive with negative excess earnings yield versus treasuries. |
Risk Premium Valuations Market Sentiment Excess Yield | |
ValuationsMarket trading at 28x cycle-adjusted earnings with negative excess yield versus treasuries. Manager compares current environment to Dot Com bubble and emphasizes that risk is too expensive. |
Excess Yield CAPE Buffett Indicator Overvaluation | |
| 2025 Q2 |
Trade PolicyTrump administration trade agreements with Japan, South Korea, and EU provided market relief. EU settled for 15% tariff rate versus feared 30-50% range. Markets cheered not because they endorsed policies but because they were relieved from worst-case scenarios. |
Tariffs Trade EU Japan Korea |
Data PrivacyCDT emphasizes data integrity as crucial for quantitative strategy success. BLS data management problems highlighted with massive job revisions. Proprietary insider sentiment data and continuing jobless claims provide better economic indicators than flawed government surveys. |
Data BLS Surveys Integrity Analytics | |
| 2025 Q1 |
Risk AppetiteManager uses insider activity as a key signal for market risk assessment and positioning. When insider purchase activity declined in January-February, the fund moved to a defensive 27% cash position. As insider activity increased during the March correction, they deployed capital and reduced reserves to under 18%. |
Insider Activity Risk Management Market Timing Defensive Positioning Liquidity |
VolatilityThe S&P 500 dropped over 5.6% in March and entered correction territory with a 10% decline from February highs. The Nasdaq fell over 10.4% for its sharpest monthly decline since December 2022. The fund's reserve strategy acts as a shock absorber during periods of market volatility. |
Market Correction S&P 500 Nasdaq Shock Absorber Reserves | |
InflationConsumer inflation expectations jumped to 4.9% from 4.3% the previous month, well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Concerns over tariff-paralysis and stickier inflation challenged investor confidence in an expensive market, contributing to the March correction. |
Consumer Expectations Federal Reserve Tariffs Market Confidence | |
| 2024 Q4 |
AIManager views AI as transformative technology but believes market expectations have become unhinged, creating spectacular valuations for Mag 7 companies. While AI will change the world, the math doesn't support current stock prices, particularly for Apple which lacks a robust AI platform. |
Artificial Intelligence Valuations Technology Bubble Mag 7 |
ETFsPassive investment strategies through S&P 500 ETFs are creating forced groupthink and concentration bubble. The S&P 500 is now most concentrated ever with top 10 companies at 36% weighting, creating positive feedback loop that breaks the index. |
Passive Investing Index Concentration Market Cap Weighting Feedback Loop SPY | |
Risk AppetiteMarkets exhibit extreme risk-taking behavior with examples like Fartcoin reaching $1.5B market cap. Animal spirits are bucking with margin debt rising $85B in single month post-election, indicating normalized extreme financial risk-taking. |
Animal Spirits Margin Debt Speculation Crypto Gambling | |
ValueManager finds tremendous value in non-Mag 7 stocks where insiders are actively purchasing shares. Portfolio has weighted earnings yield of 8.2% with CDT 7 holdings offering better value and faster growth than Apple while trading at much lower valuations. |
Earnings Yield Insider Buying Undervaluation Contrarian Fundamentals |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2025 | Fund Letters | David Papson | PLTR US | Palantir Technologies Inc. | Information Technology | Systems Software | Bear | NYSE | AI, government contracts, Multiples, Overvaluation, Risk, Software, valuation | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| SP500TR | CDT outperformed their benchmark, the S&P 500 Total Return Index (SP500TR) and met their internal objective of a durable long-term high-teens return for their partners. Since inception, for the past 5 years and 3 months, they have compounded capital at a +22.5% rate compared to the benchmark's very respectable +16.2% compounding return. In that same timeframe, they have produced a healthy +12.81% of alpha, which is a comparative measure of their historical returns against the SP500TR adjusted for risk. Performance comparison shows: 2020: CDT +22.8% vs SP500TR +12.1%; 2021: CDT +36.2% vs SP500TR +28.7%; 2022: CDT +9.1% vs SP500TR -18.1%; 2023: CDT +20.0% vs SP500TR +26.3%; 2024: CDT +11.7% vs SP500TR +25.0%; 2025: CDT +18.6% vs SP500TR +17.9%. The S&P 500 TR ended April down only -0.68% after tariff relief announcements assuaged market fears. |
| ZBRA | Zebra Technologies (ZBRA) hit their insider radar back in November. On the surface, the valuation of the $12.6B business appeared attractive at less than a 14x P/E, a modest debt burden and decent return on incremental invested capital. It looked like a worthwhile investment candidate – but the wheels came flying off when they did their risk review. What these attractive statistics do not tell you is that management had entered into a transformative acquisition of commercial touch screen provider, Elo Touch for $1.3B. The problem, management almost certainly paid too much for a business generating ~$80M in EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes and depreciation). At over 16x EBITDA, the acquisition blew out the capital structure with debt and presented significant execution risk resulting in an expected risk-adjusted return well below their threshold of safety. They decided not to invest, wishing the company well on their M&A journey but won't be making that trek with them. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Sells Data | ||||||
| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
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| No industry data available | |||
