Investor Summary
Fund Strategy
FUND PERFORMANCE AS OF 30th June 2026
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 6.7% | 13.7% | 19.1% |
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 6.7% | 13.7% | 19.1% |
Oldfield Partners' Overstone Global Equity Fund returned 13.7% in Q2 2026, matching the MSCI World Index and outperforming the MSCI World Value Index which rose 9.2%. The quarter was dominated by AI-related stocks, with Samsung contributing 100% returns while energy holdings ENI and Sanofi detracted. The manager expresses significant skepticism about AI infrastructure spending, noting the six largest spenders are scaling toward $1trn annually by 2026, approaching 30% of all US business investment. This requires revenue in the trillions and profits in the hundreds of billions, which the manager views as unlikely on required time horizons. The worst case is that AI proves transformational but gains accrue to consumers through deflation rather than providers. Despite AI concerns, the manager sees value winter ending and value spring arriving, with opportunities broadening across consumer staples, healthcare, and financials. The portfolio trades at 11x forward earnings with 40% weighted average upside. Portfolio activity included selling Kyocera at 1.5x book value and trimming ENI, NOV, and Samsung as they approached fair value.
The manager pursues a value-oriented strategy focused on identifying mispriced businesses across global markets, particularly in areas overlooked by AI-focused investors, with the portfolio trading at 11x forward earnings and offering approximately 40% weighted average upside.
The manager believes value winter has ended and value spring has arrived, though they still await value summer. With the portfolio trading at around 11 times forward earnings and a weighted average upside of around 40%, the broadening opportunity set remains attractive for patient, value-oriented investors. The manager sees plenty of corners of markets which seem attractive outside those deemed to be AI beneficiaries, spanning consumer staples, healthcare, financials and beyond.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 7 2026 | 2026 Q2 | 005930 KS, 6971.T, E, EZJ.L, FRE.DE, MRK, NOV, SNY | AI, Airlines, energy, global, Pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, value |
SNY E EZJ.L |
Oldfield Partners returned 13.7% in Q2 2026, matching the market despite avoiding AI beneficiaries. The manager views AI infrastructure spending as unsustainable, with the six largest spenders approaching $1trn annually requiring unrealistic returns. Value opportunities are broadening outside AI across consumer staples, healthcare, and financials. The portfolio trades at 11x earnings with 40% upside, positioning for patient value investors. |
| Apr 29 2026 | 2026 Q1 | 005930 KS, ALLY, E, EZJ.L, LUV, MRK.DE | Airlines, defense, Geopolitical, global, Memory, oil, value |
MRK.DE ALLY |
Oldfield Partners outperformed significantly in Q1 2026, benefiting from geopolitical tensions that boosted oil stocks while pressuring airlines. The value-focused portfolio trades at 10x earnings with 40%+ upside, adding quality names like Merck and Ally Financial. Despite extreme market valuations, the manager sees compelling opportunities in unloved, undervalued companies with long histories. |
| Jan 11 2026 | 2025 Q4 | 005930.KS, ASML, BABA, BNZL.L, CNHI, EXO.MI, HEN3.DE, LLOY.L, MT, NVDA, PHG, RACE, STLA, TSM, UHR.SW | AI, diversification, global, Luxury, semiconductors, technology, value | - | Strong 2025 performance driven by AI beneficiaries like Samsung, but manager warns of hidden concentration risk across indices. Portfolio repositioned with Samsung reduction, Alibaba exit, and Swatch addition. Expects poor S&P 500 decade returns from current valuations but sees opportunities in unloved value stocks trading at attractive multiples with significant upside potential. |
| Oct 7 2025 | 2025 Q3 | 0001.HK, 005930.KS, BABA, CVE, DIS, EZJ.L, HEIA.AS, MT, SNY | AI, Bubble, Cloud, contrarian, global, semiconductors, value |
005930 KS BABA US CKHUY US |
Oldfield Partners sees AI bubble parallels to dotcom era with extreme valuations while maintaining disciplined value approach. Portfolio at 11x earnings discount as 25% of universe trades below January levels. Samsung and Alibaba provided AI exposure at reasonable valuations. Added CK Hutchinson at 8x earnings. Fertile ground for contrarian picking as markets chase AI. |
| Aug 25 2025 | 2025 Q2 | 6971.T, 9433.T, BABA, BNZL.L, BT-A.L, CB, DIS, FRE.DE, NOV, SSNC, WTB.L | Bubble, diversification, Dollar, global, valuation, value |
6971.T BNZL.L |
Oldfield Partners delivered 8.7% in Q2 while maintaining disciplined value investing amid extreme market conditions. Their portfolio trades at 11x earnings versus the S&P 500's expensive 22x multiple. The team sees fundamental bubbles in US markets and dollar strength, focusing on global diversification and attractive valuations while avoiding overpriced assets. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q2 |
AIThe manager views AI infrastructure spending as unsustainable, with the six largest spenders scaling toward $1trn annually by 2026, approaching 30% of all US business investment. This level of spending requires revenue in the trillions and profits in the hundreds of billions, which is unlikely on required time horizons. The worst case scenario is that AI proves transformational but gains accrue to consumers through deflation rather than to providers in profits. |
AI Data Centers Cloud |
Semiconductor CycleThe manager notes a 10x increase in DRAM prices over the last twelve months, indicating the AI boom has not yet reached equilibrium. Samsung, a semiconductor holding, was among the strongest contributors with a 100% return in the quarter. The manager reduced Samsung as it approached fair value. |
DRAM Memory Semiconductors | |
ValueThe manager states that value winter has ended and value spring has arrived, with the opportunity set for value investors broadening across all corners of the market outside AI beneficiaries. The portfolio trades at around 11 times forward earnings with a weighted average upside of around 40%, which the manager views as attractive for patient, value-oriented investors. |
Value Valuation Opportunity | |
OilThe manager notes that Iran appears to have reached a new equilibrium, as evidenced by oil prices falling back to pre-war levels. ENI was weak as energy prices fell on a tentative ceasefire agreement with Iran. The manager reduced ENI and NOV earlier in the quarter at higher prices but remains attracted to ENI for its low valuation and protection during energy spikes. |
Oil Energy Iran | |
PharmaceuticalsSanofi was a detractor due to disappointing late-stage trial readouts, reviving questions about whether the company can establish enough new products to offset the Dupixent patent cliff in 2031. The manager was early on the investment and underestimated pipeline disappointments. However, new management focused on improving R&D provides a better backdrop. Today's valuation effectively writes off the pipeline, which the manager views as too pessimistic. |
Pharmaceuticals Biotechnology Drug Development | |
AirlineseasyJet was among the strongest contributors, helped by a takeover approach from Castlelake at 650p valuing the airline at close to £5bn. The board rejected the bid as opportunistic, arguing it exploits a share price temporarily depressed by Middle East-related weakness and fundamentally undervalues the company. The manager agrees and views the approach as vindicating their view that the market had been mispricing the business and its attractive assets. |
Airlines Air Travel M&A | |
| 2026 Q1 |
OilOil prices rose nearly 100% in the quarter due to the war in Iran. ENI was a major beneficiary of these price moves, contributing significantly to portfolio performance. The geopolitical tensions in Iran are creating opportunities in energy companies. |
Oil Energy Iran Geopolitical ENI |
MemorySamsung benefited from surging demand for memory products used in AI datacenters. Dynamic memory prices increased six-fold over the year, with consensus estimates for 2026 operating profit quadrupling. The improved prospects are now reflected in Samsung's valuation at 2.3x price-to-book. |
Memory Semiconductors AI Samsung Datacenters | |
ValueThe portfolio trades at around 10 times forward earnings with a weighted average upside of over 40%. The manager emphasizes investing in unloved, undervalued companies away from the crowded US growth trade, maintaining optimism about the outlook for value investing. |
Value Undervalued Earnings Upside | |
Defense SpendingGermans have committed to spend 5% of GDP on defense by 2035 as countries consider life without US leadership and support. This represents a significant shift in European defense spending driven by geopolitical tensions. |
Defense Germany GDP Geopolitical | |
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI has become a dominant theme across major equity indices with Nvidia, ASML, and TSMC leading their respective markets. The manager notes this creates less diversification than investors appreciate as many companies beyond the largest are also AI plays, resulting in a single theme becoming dominant in indexes. |
Artificial Intelligence Nvidia ASML TSMC Technology |
ValueThe manager advocates investing in companies with low valuations that are unloved, ignored, or out of favor but remain fundamental to the global economy as a disciplined way to manage risk. They see attractive opportunities in well-run holding companies trading at material discounts to fair value. |
Value Investing Discount Unloved Low Valuations | |
LuxurySwatch was purchased as a new position, offering investment opportunity backed by tangible and intangible assets with valuation assuming very little goes right. The Swiss watch market faces structural pressures and China overexposure, but the company maintains production capacity creating potential for significant operating leverage when demand recovers. |
Swiss Watches Luxury Goods Swatch Operating Leverage | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIMarkets increasingly dominated by AI with extreme valuations reminiscent of dotcom bubble. Palantir trades at 100x revenue, OpenAI at 40x revenue. Risk of capital misallocation rising with companies like CoreWeave spending $20bn on capex against $5bn revenue. |
Bubble Valuations Capital Allocation Cloud Revenue Multiples |
ValuePortfolio trades at only 11x forward earnings, discount to historical average. 25% of investable universe trades below January levels despite index strength. Fertile ground for contrarian stock pickers as market participants chase AI. |
Contrarian Discount Earnings Multiple Bottom-up Undervalued | |
SemiconductorsSamsung benefited from AI-driven memory shortage, especially DRAM with substantial price increases. Memory demand rising from cloud and model providers' capital investment commitments. Samsung re-rated to 1.3x price to book from historically higher levels. |
Memory DRAM Pricing Supply Shortage Cloud Demand | |
CloudAlibaba's cloud business accelerated to 26% revenue growth versus 6% year ago, emerging as winner in Chinese AI ecosystem. Established cloud companies spending aggressively on AI infrastructure creating supply constraints. |
Revenue Growth China Infrastructure Spending Ecosystem | |
| 2025 Q2 |
ValueThe portfolio trades at only 11x earnings, a 15% discount to its historical average, while the S&P 500 appears expensive at 22x forward earnings representing a 40% premium to its 20-year average. The Shiller price-to-earnings ratio currently stands at 38x, a level historically associated with near-zero real returns over the subsequent decade. |
Valuation Earnings Premium Discount Returns |
DollarA recent Financial Times article highlighted that the primary question investment professionals now encounter from clients revolves around managing dollar risk. The commentary suggests a fundamental bubble exists with a US dollar that is too strong, propped up by unsustainable twin deficits including excessive government spending and persistent trade imbalance. |
Currency Risk Bubble Deficits Trade |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 7, 2026 | Fund Letters | Oldfield Partners Overstone World All Cap Equity Fund | SNY | Sanofi | Drug Manufacturers - General | Pharmaceuticals | Bull | NASDAQ | dividend yield, Equity, Free Cash Flow, Immunology, Management Change, Patent cliff, pharmaceuticals, R&D pipeline, turnaround, Value | Login |
| Jul 7, 2026 | Fund Letters | Oldfield Partners Overstone World All Cap Equity Fund | E | ENI | Oil & Gas Integrated | Integrated Oil & Gas | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Commodity Exposure, Cyclical, energy, Equity, Integrated Oil & Gas, low valuation, Portfolio Hedge, Value | Login |
| Jul 7, 2026 | Fund Letters | Oldfield Partners Overstone World All Cap Equity Fund | EZJ.L | easyJet | Airlines | Airlines | Bull | London Stock Exchange | Airlines, asset value, Equity, Europe, mispricing, Slot Portfolio, takeover target, Value | Login |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Fund Letters | Oldfield Partners Overstone Global Large Cap | MRK.DE | Merck KGaA | Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic | Pharmaceuticals | Bull | - | Biotech Equipment, Diversified, Equity, family-controlled, Germany, life sciences, pharmaceuticals, semiconductor materials, Value | Login |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Fund Letters | Oldfield Partners Overstone Global Large Cap | ALLY | Ally Financial Inc | Credit Services | Consumer Finance | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Auto finance, consumer finance, Deposit-Funded, digital banking, Equity, net interest margin, transformation, US, Value | Login |
| Oct 7, 2025 | Fund Letters | Samuel Ziff | 005930 KS | Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. | Information Technology | Semiconductors | Bull | NYSE | AI, Asia, Cyclical, Memory, semiconductors, valuation | Login |
| Oct 7, 2025 | Fund Letters | Samuel Ziff | BABA US | Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. | Consumer Discretionary | Internet & E-commerce | Bull | NYSE | AI, China, cloud, e-commerce, growth, Value | Login |
| Oct 7, 2025 | Fund Letters | Samuel Ziff | CKHUY US | CK Hutchison Holdings Ltd. | Industrials | Conglomerates | Bull | - | conglomerate, Hong Kong, Ports, restructuring, Telecom, Value | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Oldfield Partners Overstone Global Large Cap | 6971.T | Kyocera Corporation | Information Technology | Electronic Equipment, Instruments & Components | Bull | Tokyo Stock Exchange | Corporate Restructuring, Industrial, Japan, Japanese Conglomerate, price-to-book, Printing Solutions, semiconductors, turnaround, Value | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Oldfield Partners Overstone Global Large Cap | BNZL.L | Bunzl plc | Industrials | Trading Companies & Distributors | Bull | London Stock Exchange | Acquisitions, compounder, consolidation, Free Cash Flow, Non-Food Consumables, One-Stop-Shop, Packaging, UK Distributor, Value | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| SNY | Sanofi was a detractor this quarter. A run of disappointing late-stage trial readouts has revived the question that hangs over the company: whether Sanofi can establish enough new products to offset the Dupixent (its blockbuster immunology drug) patent cliff in 2031. We made the investment believing the market was already too gloomy about the Dupixent cliff, and we were early. We underestimated how much of the late-stage pipeline would disappoint. Those failures contributed to the departure of chief executive Paul Hudson after six years. Belén Garijo, formerly CEO of Merck KGaA, took over in April with an explicit focus on improving R&D. She has moved quickly: in June the company named Paulo Fontoura, a long-serving Roche employee, as head of pharma R&D from September, replacing Houman Ashrafian after barely three years. We are wary of reading too much into the management changes, and the market met both appointments with scepticism. But a board willing to hold management to account for the pipeline, with a chief executive focused on fixing the problems, is not the worst backdrop for an investment priced for disappointment. Against this backdrop the business has done well. First-quarter sales and earnings both rose 14%. This is now a focused pharmaceutical business following the separation of consumer health, generating substantial free cash flow, with a conservative balance sheet and returning capital through ongoing buybacks and dividends. Today's valuation effectively writes off the pipeline: the market prices Sanofi's ex-Dupixent business for gentle decline and credits the rest almost nothing. We think that is too pessimistic. The existing portfolio of drugs provides a solid floor, and merely stabilising profits beyond the cliff would, on our estimates, justify a valuation around 20% higher than today's. Anything the pipeline delivers is additional upside. A dividend yield of about 4.5% pays us to wait. |
| E | ENI, was unsurprisingly weak as energy prices fell on a tentative ceasefire agreement with Iran. It is on a single-digit multiples of earnings, even at these lower energy prices. We remain attracted to ENI for the low valuation and the protection it provides during energy spikes but had reduced it earlier in the quarter at higher prices. |
| EZJ.L | easyJet was among the strongest contributors during the quarter, helped by the takeover approach from Castlelake, a US investment firm. Castlelake has raised its proposal repeatedly to 650p, valuing the airline at close to £5bn. The board has rejected each bid as opportunistic, arguing that they exploit a share price temporarily depressed by Middle East-related weakness and fundamentally undervalue the company. We agree. The approach vindicates our own view that the market had been mispricing the business: a very attractive set of assets, particularly its slot portfolio and fleet. We are encouraged that the board is holding out for full value. |
| 6971.T | During the quarter we sold the position in Kyocera. We purchased the shares at around 0.7x price to book (P/B), with a fair value at the time of 1x P/B; today the shares trade at 1.5x P/B. |
| 005930.KS | The largest positive contributors to performance were Samsung (+100%), easyJet (+61%) and Merck (+39%). We also reduced Samsung. All three names approached our view of fair value. |
| NOV | We reduced the portfolio's energy exposure by trimming ENI and NOV. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Sells Data | ||||||
| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| No industry data available | |||