Investor Summary
Fund Strategy
FUND PERFORMANCE AS OF 31st March 2026
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 6.1% | 4.7% | 4.7% |
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 6.1% | 4.7% | 4.7% |
Oldfield Partners delivered strong outperformance in Q1 2026, rising 4.7% while global markets fell 3.6%. The fund benefited from geopolitical tensions, with oil company ENI surging 55.7% as oil prices doubled due to the Iran war, while airline easyJet fell 30.1% on fuel cost pressures. Samsung gained 38.5% from AI-driven memory demand, with dynamic memory prices up six-fold. The manager made strategic portfolio changes, adding German pharmaceutical company Merck at attractive 14x earnings and digital bank Ally Financial with 50% upside potential, while selling Southwest Airlines at target price. The portfolio maintains a value-oriented approach, trading at 10x forward earnings with 40%+ weighted average upside. Despite elevated geopolitical tensions reminiscent of the 1970s and extreme S&P 500 valuations at the 99th percentile, the manager sees compelling opportunities in unloved, undervalued companies away from crowded US growth trades. With companies averaging over 100 years in age, the portfolio emphasizes resilient businesses with long operating histories.
Investing in unloved, undervalued companies with long histories and strong fundamentals, trading at attractive valuations with significant upside potential, while avoiding overvalued US mega-cap growth stocks.
The manager remains optimistic about the outlook for value investing, with the portfolio trading at attractive valuations and significant upside potential. They see compelling opportunities for patient, value-oriented investors away from crowded US growth trades.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 29 2026 | 2026 Q1 | 005930 KS, ALLY, E, EZJ.L, LUV, MRK.DE | Airlines, defense, Geopolitical, global, Memory, oil, value |
MRK.DE ALLY |
Oldfield Partners outperformed significantly in Q1 2026, benefiting from geopolitical tensions that boosted oil stocks while pressuring airlines. The value-focused portfolio trades at 10x earnings with 40%+ upside, adding quality names like Merck and Ally Financial. Despite extreme market valuations, the manager sees compelling opportunities in unloved, undervalued companies with long histories. |
| Jan 11 2026 | 2025 Q4 | 005930.KS, ASML, BABA, BNZL.L, CNHI, EXO.MI, HEN3.DE, LLOY.L, MT, NVDA, PHG, RACE, STLA, TSM, UHR.SW | AI, diversification, global, Luxury, semiconductors, technology, value | - | Strong 2025 performance driven by AI beneficiaries like Samsung, but manager warns of hidden concentration risk across indices. Portfolio repositioned with Samsung reduction, Alibaba exit, and Swatch addition. Expects poor S&P 500 decade returns from current valuations but sees opportunities in unloved value stocks trading at attractive multiples with significant upside potential. |
| Oct 7 2025 | 2025 Q3 | 0001.HK, 005930.KS, BABA, CVE, DIS, EZJ.L, HEIA.AS, MT, SNY | AI, Bubble, Cloud, contrarian, global, semiconductors, value |
005930 KS BABA US CKHUY US |
Oldfield Partners sees AI bubble parallels to dotcom era with extreme valuations while maintaining disciplined value approach. Portfolio at 11x earnings discount as 25% of universe trades below January levels. Samsung and Alibaba provided AI exposure at reasonable valuations. Added CK Hutchinson at 8x earnings. Fertile ground for contrarian picking as markets chase AI. |
| Aug 25 2025 | 2025 Q2 | 6971.T, 9433.T, BABA, BNZL.L, BT-A.L, CB, DIS, FRE.DE, NOV, SSNC, WTB.L | Bubble, diversification, Dollar, global, valuation, value |
6971.T BNZL.L |
Oldfield Partners delivered 8.7% in Q2 while maintaining disciplined value investing amid extreme market conditions. Their portfolio trades at 11x earnings versus the S&P 500's expensive 22x multiple. The team sees fundamental bubbles in US markets and dollar strength, focusing on global diversification and attractive valuations while avoiding overpriced assets. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 |
OilOil prices rose nearly 100% in the quarter due to the war in Iran. ENI was a major beneficiary of these price moves, contributing significantly to portfolio performance. The geopolitical tensions in Iran are creating opportunities in energy companies. |
Oil Energy Iran Geopolitical ENI |
MemorySamsung benefited from surging demand for memory products used in AI datacenters. Dynamic memory prices increased six-fold over the year, with consensus estimates for 2026 operating profit quadrupling. The improved prospects are now reflected in Samsung's valuation at 2.3x price-to-book. |
Memory Semiconductors AI Samsung Datacenters | |
ValueThe portfolio trades at around 10 times forward earnings with a weighted average upside of over 40%. The manager emphasizes investing in unloved, undervalued companies away from the crowded US growth trade, maintaining optimism about the outlook for value investing. |
Value Undervalued Earnings Upside | |
Defense SpendingGermans have committed to spend 5% of GDP on defense by 2035 as countries consider life without US leadership and support. This represents a significant shift in European defense spending driven by geopolitical tensions. |
Defense Germany GDP Geopolitical | |
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI has become a dominant theme across major equity indices with Nvidia, ASML, and TSMC leading their respective markets. The manager notes this creates less diversification than investors appreciate as many companies beyond the largest are also AI plays, resulting in a single theme becoming dominant in indexes. |
Artificial Intelligence Nvidia ASML TSMC Technology |
ValueThe manager advocates investing in companies with low valuations that are unloved, ignored, or out of favor but remain fundamental to the global economy as a disciplined way to manage risk. They see attractive opportunities in well-run holding companies trading at material discounts to fair value. |
Value Investing Discount Unloved Low Valuations | |
LuxurySwatch was purchased as a new position, offering investment opportunity backed by tangible and intangible assets with valuation assuming very little goes right. The Swiss watch market faces structural pressures and China overexposure, but the company maintains production capacity creating potential for significant operating leverage when demand recovers. |
Swiss Watches Luxury Goods Swatch Operating Leverage | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIMarkets increasingly dominated by AI with extreme valuations reminiscent of dotcom bubble. Palantir trades at 100x revenue, OpenAI at 40x revenue. Risk of capital misallocation rising with companies like CoreWeave spending $20bn on capex against $5bn revenue. |
Bubble Valuations Capital Allocation Cloud Revenue Multiples |
ValuePortfolio trades at only 11x forward earnings, discount to historical average. 25% of investable universe trades below January levels despite index strength. Fertile ground for contrarian stock pickers as market participants chase AI. |
Contrarian Discount Earnings Multiple Bottom-up Undervalued | |
SemiconductorsSamsung benefited from AI-driven memory shortage, especially DRAM with substantial price increases. Memory demand rising from cloud and model providers' capital investment commitments. Samsung re-rated to 1.3x price to book from historically higher levels. |
Memory DRAM Pricing Supply Shortage Cloud Demand | |
CloudAlibaba's cloud business accelerated to 26% revenue growth versus 6% year ago, emerging as winner in Chinese AI ecosystem. Established cloud companies spending aggressively on AI infrastructure creating supply constraints. |
Revenue Growth China Infrastructure Spending Ecosystem | |
| 2025 Q2 |
ValueThe portfolio trades at only 11x earnings, a 15% discount to its historical average, while the S&P 500 appears expensive at 22x forward earnings representing a 40% premium to its 20-year average. The Shiller price-to-earnings ratio currently stands at 38x, a level historically associated with near-zero real returns over the subsequent decade. |
Valuation Earnings Premium Discount Returns |
DollarA recent Financial Times article highlighted that the primary question investment professionals now encounter from clients revolves around managing dollar risk. The commentary suggests a fundamental bubble exists with a US dollar that is too strong, propped up by unsustainable twin deficits including excessive government spending and persistent trade imbalance. |
Currency Risk Bubble Deficits Trade |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 29, 2026 | Fund Letters | Oldfield Partners Overstone Global Large Cap | MRK.DE | Merck KGaA | Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic | Pharmaceuticals | Bull | - | Biotech Equipment, Diversified, Equity, family-controlled, Germany, life sciences, pharmaceuticals, semiconductor materials, Value | Login |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Fund Letters | Oldfield Partners Overstone Global Large Cap | ALLY | Ally Financial Inc | Credit Services | Consumer Finance | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Auto finance, consumer finance, Deposit-Funded, digital banking, Equity, net interest margin, transformation, US, Value | Login |
| Oct 7, 2025 | Fund Letters | Samuel Ziff | CKHUY US | CK Hutchison Holdings Ltd. | Industrials | Conglomerates | Bull | - | conglomerate, Hong Kong, Ports, restructuring, Telecom, Value | Login |
| Oct 7, 2025 | Fund Letters | Samuel Ziff | 005930 KS | Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. | Information Technology | Semiconductors | Bull | NYSE | AI, Asia, Cyclical, Memory, semiconductors, valuation | Login |
| Oct 7, 2025 | Fund Letters | Samuel Ziff | BABA US | Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. | Consumer Discretionary | Internet & E-commerce | Bull | NYSE | AI, China, cloud, e-commerce, growth, Value | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Oldfield Partners Overstone Global Large Cap | BNZL.L | Bunzl plc | Industrials | Trading Companies & Distributors | Bull | London Stock Exchange | Acquisitions, compounder, consolidation, Free Cash Flow, Non-Food Consumables, One-Stop-Shop, Packaging, UK Distributor, Value | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Oldfield Partners Overstone Global Large Cap | 6971.T | Kyocera Corporation | Information Technology | Electronic Equipment, Instruments & Components | Bull | Tokyo Stock Exchange | Corporate Restructuring, Industrial, Japan, Japanese Conglomerate, price-to-book, Printing Solutions, semiconductors, turnaround, Value | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| E | ENI (+55.7%, total return in local currency) was the largest positive contributor to performance. ENI has been a beneficiary of oil price moves, with oil prices rising nearly 100% in the quarter due to the war in Iran. |
| 005930.KS | Samsung (+38.5%) was a major positive contributor. Samsung has benefited from surging demand for memory products used in AI datacentres. Over the last year, the price of dynamic memory has increased six-fold, resulting in consensus estimates for 2026 operating profit quadrupling. The company's improved prospects are now reflected in the valuation, at 2.3x price-to-book. We reduced the position but continue to hold. |
| EZJ.L | easyJet (-30.1%) was the largest negative contributor and weakest performer in the quarter. Jet fuel prices have risen significantly, directly squeezing airline margins. Although easyJet is hedged in the near term, the issues in Iran are likely to weigh on the entire global airline industry. |
| MRK.DE | Merck was a new purchase during the quarter. Merck started as a pharmacy in 1668 and is still controlled by its founding family, now in its 13th generation. The company has expanded into life sciences and semiconductor materials over the last 15 years, which now account for c.60% of sales. The combination of Covid-related demand normalising, the downturn in the analogue semiconductor industry, and pipeline failures in the pharma business have created the value opportunity. The company historically traded at a high teen multiple of its earnings, but we initiated the position at 14 times earnings. |
| ALLY | Ally Financial was a new purchase during the quarter. Ally has undergone a significant transformation over the past 15 years, rebranded in 2009 from General Motors' former financing arm. Today, Ally has c.$140bn of loans outstanding, with 87% of its funding coming from deposits. We believe rising net interest margins combined with improving asset quality should drive higher returns. Looking at history, we believe Ally can earn c.$6 in earnings per share. At 10x earnings, this implies a fair value of $60 per share, around 50% upside, alongside a dividend yield of over 3%. |
| LUV | Southwest Airlines position was sold during the quarter following a trading update at the end of January that led to strong share price performance, and the share price reached our target. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Sells Data | ||||||
| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| No industry data available | |||