| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
Mountain Vista Wealth Management reflects on a strong 2025 where equities, fixed income, and gold delivered robust returns, with only crypto assets disappointing. The manager emphasizes avoiding behavioral traps of market timing and extrapolation that consistently erode investor returns, particularly after three consecutive years of double-digit stock gains. Key themes include the divergent performance of gold versus Bitcoin, with gold functioning as a defensive store of value while Bitcoin behaved like a high-beta risk asset. The Federal Reserve delivered a divided 25 basis point rate cut, reflecting genuine disagreement about economic risks. Looking forward, several tailwinds support optimism including dovish Fed policy, moderating inflation, and potential AI productivity gains. However, with the S&P 500 trading at elevated valuations around 22x forward earnings, much optimism appears priced in. The manager maintains neutral equity positioning while holding constructive views on fixed income, expecting continued inflation decline and dovish Fed policy to prevail.
Despite strong 2025 market performance across asset classes, investors must avoid behavioral traps of market timing and extrapolation as they enter 2026 following three consecutive years of double-digit stock gains, while positioning for an environment where AI productivity gains, Federal Reserve policy, and inflation dynamics will drive market outcomes.
Several tailwinds support economic optimism as we enter the new year including a dovish Federal Reserve, tax refunds, diminishing tariff shock, and moderating inflation. However, with elevated market valuations, much optimism may already be priced in. The manager maintains a neutral stance on equities while holding a more constructive view on fixed income, expecting inflation to continue declining and the dovish Fed faction to prevail.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 9 2026 | 2025 Q4 | AGG, DBB, EMB, ETHA, FBTC, GLD, IVE, IVW, IWM, JNK, QQQ, SPY, TLT, USO, VXUS, XLK, XLP, XLRE, XLU, XLV | AI, Bitcoin, Economic Outlook, ETFs, Federal Reserve, gold, inflation, Market Commentary | - | A key question for 2026 is whether AI investments will translate into measurable productivity gains and margin expansion beyond the technology sector. The downside scenario… |
| Oct 12 2025 | 2025 Q3 | - | AI, Concentration, DataCenters, risk, valuation | - | The markets AI-driven rally has pushed valuations higher, with heavy investment in data centers and cloud infrastructure shaping earnings expectations. The manager warns of concentration… |
| Jul 8 2025 | 2025 Q2 | - | - | - | - |
| Apr 14 2025 | 2025 Q1 | - | - | - | - |
| Jan 9 2025 | 2024 Q4 | - | - | - | - |
| Oct 9 2024 | 2024 Q3 | - | - | - | - |
| Jul 10 2024 | 2024 Q2 | - | - | - | - |
| Apr 3 2024 | 2024 Q1 | - | - | - | - |
| Jan 2 2024 | 2023 Q4 | - | - | - | - |
| Oct 5 2023 | 2023 Q3 | - | - | - | - |
| Jul 5 2023 | 2023 Q2 | - | - | - | - |
| Apr 6 2023 | 2023 Q1 | - | - | - | - |
| Jan 3 2023 | 2022 Q4 | - | - | - | - |
| Oct 5 2022 | 2022 Q3 | - | - | - | - |
| Jul 5 2022 | 2022 Q2 | - | - | - | - |
| Apr 7 2022 | 2022 Q1 | - | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
CryptoFund focuses exclusively on Bitcoin accumulation through disciplined cycle-aware positioning. Manager shifted to defensive posture in Q3 anticipating correction, ending Q4 with two-thirds Bitcoin and one-third cash. Going forward, fund will hold only Bitcoin based on data showing altcoins have terrible odds with only 1-in-70 beating Bitcoin historically. |
Bitcoin Altcoins Cycles Accumulation Volatility | |
GoldGold returned +65% in dollars in 2025, driven by broadening demand from central banks, professional and retail investors. Central banks now hold 24% of reserves in gold versus 23% in US Treasuries for the first time. Maintained 12% portfolio allocation throughout the year. |
Central Banks Reserves Diversification Demand | |
InflationInflation has continued to be a persistent feature in Japan and has prompted changes in both corporate and consumer behavior. Importantly, inflation has fed through to corporate earnings and equity performance. Companies that have successfully passed on higher costs to consumers have benefited from improved operating margins. |
Inflation Corporate Earnings Operating Margins Consumer Behavior Cost Pass-through | |
RatesFederal Reserve resumed rate-cutting cycle with first cut since December 2024, signaling resumption of easing. Expected three cuts of 25bps between now and first quarter 2026 as Fed responds to signs of weakness in US labor market. |
Fed Monetary Policy Labor Market Easing Liquidity | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Elevator Pitches found | ||||||||||
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| ETHA | ETHA (Ethereum ETF) plunged 28.8% in the fourth quarter, turning negative for the full year. |
| FBTC | FBTC (Bitcoin ETF) plunged 23.6% in the fourth quarter, turning negative for the full year. |
| GLD | GLD (Gold ETF) extended its remarkable run with an 11.5% gain, capping off an extraordinary 63.7% annual return that stands as one of the year's most impressive performances across any major asset class. |
| IWM | We use the ETF IWM to represent the US small capitalization index. Small-capitalization stocks lagged, ending the year up +12.7%. In contrast, small-capitalization equities are significantly outperforming, up +7.6% year-to-date through January 23, 2026. |
| QQQ | Most investors should be able to capture the big winners by owning QQQ over the long term. Picking winners and losers during such a time of disruption is very difficult. |
| SPY | Over the exact same period, the S&P 500 generated an annualized return of around 10.2%. A dollar invested passively in an S&P 500 ETF became roughly eleven dollars. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, is the most widely owned and actively traded ETF in the world. Its market capitalization today is roughly USD 700 billion—only about 1% of the total market capitalization of the S&P 500 constituents. Yet SPY's typical daily trading volume is USD 30–40 billion, while the combined daily trading volume of the underlying S&P 500 companies is approximately USD 500–700 billion. |
| TLT | We use TLT for 20+ Year Treasury Bond index (i.e. 'long-dated' US Treasury bonds). Long-dated U.S. Treasury bonds declined -1.0% during the fourth quarter and returned +4.3% for the full year 2025. |
| VXUS | VXUS (International Equity ETF) gained 4.6% in Q4 and delivered 40.0% for the full year. |
| XLK | The Technology Sector SPDR (XLK) hit 0.60% in December (with a YTD of 23.83%) as markets oscillated between AI is the future and yes, but what's the bill? |
| XLV | The Health Care Sector SPDR (XLV) was down 1.81% in December |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Sells Data | ||||||
| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
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| No industry data available | |||
