| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
Anchor Capital Advisors views 2025 as a pivotal year where markets transitioned from macro-dominated performance to fundamentals-driven returns, with 79% of S&P 500 gains attributable to earnings growth rather than valuation expansion. The firm emphasizes that while policy uncertainty persists—including U.S. trade tensions, the longest government shutdown in history, and global defense spending increases—markets have demonstrated resilience by treating volatility as manageable constraints rather than systemic shocks. Key investment themes include AI infrastructure requiring $3 trillion in data center investments through 2030, ongoing trade regionalization, and rising fiscal deficits from expanded defense and climate spending. International markets outperformed as growth became less synchronized, with Japan benefiting from political reform and China showing stabilization. Looking ahead, the firm expects slower but positive global growth with persistent above-target inflation and elevated dispersion across regions and sectors. They advocate for diversified, multi-asset portfolios emphasizing income generation, real assets, earnings quality, and balance-sheet strength over broad market beta strategies.
Markets are transitioning away from a purely macro-dominated regime toward one increasingly shaped by a combination of macro and micro fundamentals, including earnings durability and asset-class-specific drivers of performance.
We expect slower but positive global growth, inflation remaining above target for longer, and wider fiscal deficits. Consumer confidence remains fragile amid inflation fatigue and rising unemployment concerns, while upcoming political cycles may add to policy uncertainty. Dispersion across regions, sectors, and asset classes is likely to remain elevated.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15 2026 | 2025 Q4 | IWM, SPY | AI, defense, earnings, equities, global, infrastructure, monetary policy, Trade Policy | - | AI has emerged as a multi-year infrastructure investment requiring significant investment across data-center infrastructure and power generation. Of the nearly US$3 trillion in data center–related capital expenditure expected through 2030, less than 20% has been deployed, leaving an estimated US$1.5 trillion financing gap. AI-driven productivity gains continue to underpin earnings durability. U.S. trade policy was a central source of volatility during the year, contributing to disruptions in global trade flows and an early-year equity correction. Global trade dynamics reflected a shift toward regionalization, supply-chain realignment, and strategic autonomy across major economies. Ongoing sources of upward price pressure include tariffs. Europe grappled with rising security commitments, with Germany's approximately €500 billion in multi-year fiscal and defense initiatives representing a meaningful shift in Europe's policy stance. This coincides with a broader increase in defense and security spending as the Russia–Ukraine war enters its fourth year. Globally, expanding defense, climate, and social spending is contributing to larger fiscal deficits and rising sovereign debt issuance. Capital-intensive investment cycles are emerging, with AI requiring significant investment across data-center infrastructure and power generation, increasingly financed through infrastructure funds and private capital vehicles. Approximately 79% of the S&P 500's return was attributable to earnings growth rather than valuation expansion—a notable contrast with prior years. Earnings and fundamentals are increasingly driving equity performance and broader market participation. Strong margins, free cash flow generation, and AI-driven productivity gains continue to underpin earnings durability. |
| Oct 9 2025 | 2025 Q3 | NVDA | AI, Dollar, emerging markets, Fed Cuts, rates, small caps, technology, value | - | The commentary highlights a global macro environment defined by slowing but resilient growth, tariff uncertainty, easing monetary policy, and elevated asset valuations. Markets are portrayed as supported by policy stimulus and strong corporate fundamentals, even as risks from concentration and speculation rise. Macro diversification across regions, asset classes, and styles is emphasized as critical as the cycle matures. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
Defense SpendingThe entire world is rapidly rearming off an extremely low base of defense spending. This exposure focuses on companies that make armaments for nation state security and materially outperformed for the year. |
Defense Armaments Rheinmetall Palantir RTX | |
EarningsEarnings are central to the manager's optimism with consensus expectations pointing to meaningful acceleration in small-cap earnings in 2026, with growth projected in the low-to-mid teens and exceeding that of large-cap companies. This anticipated rebound reflects easier year-over-year comparisons, improving operating leverage, and broadening demand across cyclical and value-oriented sectors. |
Earnings Growth Operating Leverage Cyclical Sectors Consensus Estimates Earnings Revisions | |
Infrastructure SpendingPlaying on the continued theme of infrastructure spending, defense and energy sustainability, positions in Industrial and Energy sectors including Oshkosh, Coterra, OSI Systems, and Herc Holdings added positively to performance. |
Defense Energy Industrial Government Sustainability | |
Trade PolicyRecent tariff policies continued to negatively impact U.S. consumers and companies throughout the year. However, international companies have been finding new trade arrangements and growth opportunities, benefiting from shifts in global trade patterns as the new U.S. administration alters terms of international cooperation. |
Tariffs International Growth Cooperation Impact | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
RatesFederal Reserve resumed rate-cutting cycle with first cut since December 2024, signaling resumption of easing. Expected three cuts of 25bps between now and first quarter 2026 as Fed responds to signs of weakness in US labor market. |
Fed Monetary Policy Labor Market Easing Liquidity | |
Small CapsSmall caps getting strong start in 2026 supported by easing monetary conditions and constructive fiscal backdrop. Small caps more sensitive to economic cyclicality which is overdue for expansion. Expected to grow at better pace than large caps in 2026 after long period of underperformance. |
Value Growth Cyclical Monetary Policy Fiscal Policy | |
ValueManager emphasizes investing in controlled companies trading at significant discounts to NAV, with European holding companies showing discounts of 30-68%. The strategy focuses on securities mispricing where real value exists, contrasting with overvalued technology stocks. |
Discounts NAV Mispricing Undervalued Controlled |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Elevator Pitches found | ||||||||||
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| IWM | We use the ETF IWM to represent the US small capitalization index. Small-capitalization stocks lagged, ending the year up +12.7%. In contrast, small-capitalization equities are significantly outperforming, up +7.6% year-to-date through January 23, 2026. |
| SPY | Over the exact same period, the S&P 500 generated an annualized return of around 10.2%. A dollar invested passively in an S&P 500 ETF became roughly eleven dollars. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, is the most widely owned and actively traded ETF in the world. Its market capitalization today is roughly USD 700 billion—only about 1% of the total market capitalization of the S&P 500 constituents. Yet SPY's typical daily trading volume is USD 30–40 billion, while the combined daily trading volume of the underlying S&P 500 companies is approximately USD 500–700 billion. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
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| No Recent Sells Data | ||||||
| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| No industry data available | |||
