2026 GOLD Price Target You Need To Hear | Ed Yardeni
Summary
AI Fatigue: The guest sees AI fatigue weighing on mega-cap tech, recommending lightening up in Information Technology and Communication Services as leadership broadens.
Market Rotation: Expect a shift from the Magnificent 7 to the “impressive 493,” benefiting the broader market and AI’s end customers as productivity gains diffuse.
Sector Positioning: He advocates market-weighting tech/comm and overweighting Financials, Industrials, and Materials to capture rotation and onshoring tailwinds.
Precious Metals: Strongly bullish on gold as a geopolitical hedge with long-term upside, supporting materials exposure and portfolio diversification.
Cruise Lines: Despite recent underperformance, the Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines sub-industry is viewed as an opportunity supported by boomer spending.
Macro & USD: Despite de-dollarization chatter, strong capital inflows support the US Dollar; policy remains excessively stimulative, risking higher long rates.
Productivity Boom: A “Roaring 2020s” scenario with rising productivity underpins resilient US growth, earnings, and an ongoing earnings-led bull market.
Risks: Bond vigilantes could push yields higher if stimulus persists, potentially unsettling equities before a constructive 2026 outlook.
Transcript
2025 is about over and we need to recap what has happened. No better guest to invite to this show than Ed Yardi of Yard Denny Research. Um I I went through our last conversation back in April and I have to he was betting close to a thousand on his calls whether it was about gold price targets whether it was about the market and the fear sentiment all of that. I really excited to have him back recap some of the calls but also get an outlook for 2026. What can we expect? Um what is really driving markets right now? How much is the fear trade still happening? Is the Fed still cornered or have they moved? Have they given in? Uh what are they going to do next year? As you all know, we'll see a new Fed share be announced hope probably soon. So we we'll see what that all means for us here as investors and the market participants of course. But before I switch over to my guest, hit that like and subscribe button. It helps us out tremendously. Bring fantastic guests like Ed on and we just appreciate it. So thank you so much for doing that. now at Mr. 1000. Really appreciate you joining us again. Thanks so much for coming back on here on So Financially. >> Thank you. My my pleasure. >> Yeah, Ed, really looking forward to recapping last year uh or this past year with you. Um we've had you on back in April. Your calls have been tremendous. Um we had you on about 3 weeks post deliberation day and uh of course fear sentiment was extremely high. I just looked at the fear and greed index, neutral territory here on CNN. Um what what is your assessment of the market right now? What's sentiment? Well, I think rather than fear, what we have is fatigue. I think there's AI fatigue. Uh maybe I'm maybe I'm the only one that's fatigued by AI, but I think a lot of us are just kind of like, okay, enough already. Uh and so I I think that's going to weigh on maybe some of the AI related trades. And as a matter of fact, a few weeks ago, I suggested maybe it's time to lighten up in tech and communication services and on the Magnificent 7. uh because uh they've uh had such a great run. They account for so much uh of the market capitalization of the S&P 500 and maybe now it's time finally for the market to actually broaden out to what I call the impressive 493. Uh, so if I'm right about AI fatigue, uh, that's not a a bearish call, that's a bullish call because it it implies the broadening out of the market to the to the customers of all these producers of AI. Um, I mean, these producers of AI aren't going to make any money if they don't have any customers that are getting some benefit out of it. And I think a lot of companies that use this technology and other technologies, we'll see their productivity increase, which is good for profits. One other thing I would mention is I think everybody is in fact looking at AI to see how it might uh increase the productivity of their business and I think a lot of companies may may conclude that it's too early on uh to really embrace AI but that whole exercise of looking at your entire company from from from scratch may very well reveal areas where productivity can be increased uh kind of willy-nilly without doing much uh much effort other than restructuring things. >> AB: >> Absolutely. No, there's uh restructuring is happening. We're seeing that across the board. The question is now, how does that translate into markets, into margins? Um we're seeing layoffs um happening as well. So, the economy is on on shaky footing. Um I I would say because the Fed is very nervous about the employment statistics. >> Yeah. Well, yeah, it's it's on shaky grounds when you look at the labor market and I I can't dismiss that. That's obviously important. I think some of the problems maybe a lot of the problems in the labor market are structural in nature. U I think AI is uh caused a lot of companies to uh freeze their headcount u basically say let's let's wait until we see whether this AI technology can allow us to increase the productivity of the people we have without having to increase more. The baby boomers are retiring and uh they're retiring with a lot of experience and they're hard hard to replace and especially in a world of AI. Uh you know, you can't fully trust AI. It does occasionally have hallucinations and turn delusional. So you need humans to actually double check their their output to make sure that it is in fact correct. Uh so that may be an issue in the labor market. But look, I I I at at at the beginning of the decade in 2020, I started uh positing that this could be uh the roaring 2020s when we look back on the decade. And uh so far so good. And my basic view was that we are going to see a shortage of of labor, skilled labor especially as the baby boomers retire. uh and that that would force companies to scramble to increase the productivity of whoever they had working for them and I think that's worked out pretty well and we are seeing that the economy despite the weakness in labor markets doing great I mean real GDP has been very strong and productivity numbers for this year are going to be over 3% uh and the average is about 2% uh and next year I think could be more of the same so we could have surprisingly strong real GDP with the help of some extremely maybe excessively stimulated fiscal and monetary policy. Uh but all in all um I think the economy is actually uh has been resilient and will continue to be resilient. >> It sounds like you're a little bit surprised by that. I'm you know I'm trying to read between the lines here. Are you surprised that the economy is resilient? >> Uh I I don't know what you caught in my intonation but no not not at all. As a matter of fact, I I think I was uh I don't know if I was the only one, but I was one of the few that for the past four years pointed out that we were having the most widely anticipated recession of all times. It just wasn't going to happen. And uh I I was touting the resilience of the economy. I said the consumer isn't going to fade. Uh even now there's a lot of talk about depressed consumers. And I keep pointing out that when we Americans are happy, we spend money. when we're depressed, we spend even more money. Uh but but more seriously, I was saying, look, my I'm a baby boomer. I'm still working for a living, but my friends are retiring. The baby boomers collectively, according to Fed data, have $80 trillion of net worth. And what's the point of accumulating all that? Well, it's to retire. And once you retire, start spending it. Uh so I I I think real disposable income is actually going to be pretty weak uh kind of flat because a lot of a lot of my friends are retiring and they had been making some pretty nice uh salaries and uh and and and so on. Uh and now they're spending the money. Um the only thing they the only uncertainty they face is they don't know how long they're going to live. So they don't quite know how how much uh to to spend. I think they want to leave some to their kids. Maybe not. The kids never listen. they didn't clean up. So maybe that's a factor. Uh but I also argue that capital spending would uh be very u resilient and interest rate insensitive because technologies capital spending now accounts for over 50% of capital spending. And the naysayers were saying well no uh we got this terrible deficit. And I was saying well that's true we do but that's actually stimulative. uh and that was another reason to believe that the economy wasn't going to uh slow down and so if it worked for the past well since the beginning of the decade why not uh learn from that and conclude maybe it'll remain resilient. >> No, absolutely. And maybe to to quote what you said back in April, you said bull markets don't die of old age, they're killed by policy mistakes. Yeah. >> So I'm I'm really curious like have we seen that policy mistake happen already or are we waiting for it to happen? Because >> Yeah. Well, I mean, you can't say that we're going to have a recession because fiscal and monetary policies are too tight. Uh, what you can say is that they're ex excessively stimulative. I know at the Fed, they still think that a three and a half% Fed funds rate is restrictive because they have this delusion that there's some neutral Fed funds rate out there that's more like 3%. Uh but as you as you know uh if you ask different Fed officials what their estimate of the neutral is it it runs the gamut from two two to 4%. So where does 3% come from? It's an average it's an average of 19 participants on the FOMC. So it's total nonsense. Uh and meanwhile the Fed has been lowering interest rates and the bond market hasn't cooperated. Look at what happened last year. Uh I mean the Fed just won't listen to me. It's very frustrating. I told them last year, you know, you lower you start lowering interest rates, economy is resilient, doesn't really need it. The bond market might not cooperate and I I didn't expect the bond yield to go up 100 basis points completely offsetting the 100 basis point drop in the Fed funds rate and that was last year. this year in 20 at 25 as as we wrap up the year. They just did another 75 basis points and the bond market uh kind of yawned and said no we're going to keep it above 4% for the 10 year and mortgage rates remain relatively high for wouldbe home buyers. So I think if there's a policy mistake here it's excessive uh stimulus. Uh, and where that could get us into trouble in 2026 is if the bond vigilantes, a phrase I coined back in 1983, if the bond vigilantes say, you know, this is just way too much stimulus. And what I really have in mind is that so-called um big beautiful bill act uh that was passed by Congress and signed by the president last July that was made retroactive to the beginning of 2025. and the president as well as his treasury secretary have both uh you know been extremely uh vocal to let people know that they're going to get some pretty significant refunds uh come April when they file their uh tax returns and they expect that that'll make them happier and make them vote for Republicans in the midterm elections and will boost the economy. It'll certainly boost the economy and maybe more than the necessary and then maybe somewhere over the next few months we'll conclude that you know what we're still down at 2% on the inflation rate. It's still closer to three than to two and the bond yield then might go up uh maybe even significantly. uh I don't know that it goes to 5% maybe four and 3/4% people start talking about five and then some of the outliers talk about six and that spooks the stock market and so you know I'm bullish on the market in 2026 but I think the next few months could be uh a bit of a I I think it could be a little difficult >> yeah just coming back to the bond market and what you just mentioned the Fed interacting with the bond market maybe even uh you know doing nonQE QE um yeah >> we need to come up with a better term term, by the way. But, uh, >> yeah, I think it's QE3 or QE4, mini QE, whatever. >> Yeah. Um, what do you make of it? $40 billion. Um, you know, seems to be a light version, like QE light, but it is QE after all, despite not being called QE by by the Fed. What do you make of it? Like, how inflationary is it? >> It's not that light, right? I mean, I I think they've basically I I can't quite sort out the language that they use, but it sounds like they're going to do 40 billion per month and uh increasing their the size of their of their balance sheet and they'll do it in Treasury bills. And it sounds like they're basically going to do it through April and then kind of revisit. Uh so 40 billion per month adds up to to some real money. it does add a lot of liquidity to an economy that's uh already sitting on almost eight trillion dollars of just money market mutual funds. Uh so there's a tremendous amount of liquidity in the system and that's why uh it's pretty hard to get this uh stock market to go down because there's buying on the dip when there's a lot of liquidity uh obviously has been working. >> That's a good point actually because I wanted to ask you a follow-up question like where do we see that money resurface? It's about $200 billion. That's five months starting December 1st, ending end of April. Uh where do you see that resurface? >> Well, um I I I think that money uh is what keeps uh it does keep short-term rates down. I think it just resurfaces and uh really easy credit conditions in the money markets, but again, I think that could be offset by uh a bond market that won't cooperate. Well, the question is now is like as as investors and that's where we come from uh from that angle like how do we participate in this is there even a way to participate or benefit from that uh nonQE QE position here? >> Well, I I think uh again I think you have to put the package together. It's not just the uh the mini QE. It's also the uh the the mega refunds uh that are are going to hit the economy. And then of course tax rates uh uh were uh kept at low and some tax rates were reduced for tips and social security and things like that. So when when you put that package together with a deficit that's humongous uh when the economy has grown three to 4% we shouldn't be running deficits at all let alone one and a half to2 trillion dollars. So all that is very stimulative uh for the economy. It's great for uh earnings therefore and so the earningsled bull market continues. The only question is rotation. Will we finally get some rotation? And uh maybe 2026 is the year where things change somewhat in the market of where you want to be. I've been recommending for many years overweighting technology and communication services. But then I'm looking at the size of these things, the share of these two sectors. They're only two of the 11 sectors. And just those two sectors account for 45% of the market capitalization of the S&P 500. You see, my dog Max was very excited about that. Uh but I got excited about it. So, well, wait a second. I'm telling people to overweight two sectors that are already 45% of the S&P 500. Surely that can't represent their their size in the economy and and and total earnings. Uh obviously their share of earnings has gone up but not the way their capitalization has gone up. So I I trimmed it back. I said let's just market weight. Market weight still leaves me with 45% in in two sectors and let's uh put more money into what what we have been overweing still financials. Financials are a good uh way to play tech fintech. You know, these financials are spending billions of dollars uh to use technology to increase their productivity, efficiency, lower their costs. Uh industrials continue to benefit uh from onshoring from uh uh reglobalization. I don't think we've dellobalized. I think everybody's reglobalizing. Uh and so production is coming back to to the US. Um and of course u you know it's hard to really know how much of the trillions of dollars that uh the president President Trump has managed to coersse other countries to contribute to the well-being of the United States. How much of that will actually show up? But it could be trillions of dollars the way he's he he presented it. I mean there is a specific list on the White House's website showing what the commitments are. Um the only question is whether they'll just drag their feet until he's he's gone and then you know try to forget about the commitments. Uh because it's kind of weird to think that other countries want to commit to stimulating our economy when they've got problems of their own that they can use the money for. But that it is what it is. So uh I I would say uh we added health care. We uh we we kind of ignored healthcare for years. Um but healthcare particularly biotech uh looks uh like an overweight uh to us. Uh you can even uh over I mean it's it's it's easy to overweight energy and materials because they're so tiny in the market capitalization the S&P 500 and I do like gold quite a bit precious metals. So you could do that with materials and I uh I I'm kind of torn about energy. I think oil is in a kind of a death dive. Uh uh I think I think we've seen peak oil and a lot of it has to do with Chinese driving EVs uh and not uh g gasoline powered cars. >> Pneumont is the only gold miner in the S&P 500 by the way. Seventh best performing stock last I checked about a week ago or so. It was ranked second. It was ranked second for a while. >> Yeah. Let me uh I don't know. I forgot to turn off my phone, but uh yeah, I mean the GLD is a perfectly good uh ETF. There's a a mini version of that. Uh Heeka has been a great way to play silver. Um so, uh yeah, there there are ways to to play and you don't have to play it just with an S&P 500 company, obviously. >> No, no, no. We'll get to gold in a second. And I just have one more followup and something you you actually mentioned as you were talking about boomers spending money. I thought about looking at cruise line stocks but uh they're completely underperforming right now. I think uh I Norwegian or Royal one of them is down 27% of the year. Uh is that a sector you're looking at at all? Just random question here. >> Uh I've liked the sector. Uh you know I I I honestly I don't drill down that deeply. I I do the I mean I I I take the sectors and and kind of give you my bets there. Uh and then um you know the uh cruise lines are kind of consumer discretionary and uh they are definitely benefiting from retiring uh baby boomers. A lot of my friends that used to maybe go on a cruise once every five years and once every two years are now doing two or three cruises a year. Uh so I I think it's just some profit taken in that sector. It's been a very very strong sector and it's probably an opportunity. >> No, no, fair enough. Like we don't need to go down deeper in that rabbit hole. I'm just curious because you talked about boomers earlier. Um let's cycle a bit through the asset classes. The US dollar um we've seen a lot of headlines the last 12 months like oh the dollar is doomed. Um dd dollararization is happening. It's gotten a little quieter on that front. Uh where do you say we are at right now in that? Well, you know, a lot of people look at the DXY dollar index, which is really kind of a strange way to look at the dollar because it's really the euro at 57. It's it's a fixed weight index and 57%. Look at that. Max left. I guess he got bored with our conversation. I find it interesting. Uh but the D the DXY is 57% uh uh euro and then it's got the yen. it's it's develop it's the the the key currencies. Um and so it's really its strength has really reflected the strength of the euro. And I'm a little puzzled by that because I don't see what all the excitement is about Europe. Not the economy. The financial the the the financial side. The the economy has done uh not so great but the uh stock market has done ex extremely well. Uh Spain has been one of the outperformers. financials have done extremely well in uh in Europe. But maybe that's run its course. But I think there's this kind of uh view that over the past year money has uh foreigners have taken their money out of the US and and put it in Europe, put it in emerging markets and there has been outperformance overseas. But the Treasury does put together um uh monthly data on net capital inflows from foreigners. It's bizarre, but over the past 12 months through I think uh October is is the latest data uh foreign net equity inflows into the US equity market all-time record high of over $700 billion uh and uh similar kind of numbers uh like 800 900 billion dollars for uh fixed income securities. So a tremendous amount of inflow still coming into the US. So from from the fundamental perspective, from a flow of funds pers perspective, I'm not bearish. But uh you know, if you look at the DXY, the DXY is kind of hanging by its fingernails to an upward trend line. Uh that's that if it breaks, people like will freak out and say that the dollar's, you know, going into a death dive. I I don't see it. the US capital market just way too big, too too liquid, uh, too dependable for people to just, uh, uh, bail out. >> To get a bit more specific on maybe that topic, could in could the unwinding of the yen carry trade sort of set that off perhaps in 2026? Is that something you look at? And might that something that might be happening? >> Kind of been there, done it. Wasn't it like what about a year ago? We had sort of a >> I think it was August 24, wasn't it? >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. We had a carry trade scare and it lasted what two days. Um I I mean the people who are paying playing the carry trade are big boys and girls. They they they they know what what the risks are. Basically what they're doing is borrowing money real cheaply in Japan uh and uh and then investing it uh in other parts of the world. And so when they take those yen and convert them to other currencies, the yen goes down, which means that when they have to pay it back, it's even it's it's another benefit of the carry trade. Uh but uh right now the yen is still weak, but the the the cost of borrowing money in Japan is definitely g gone up. And uh we could have another carry trade unwind, but it doesn't seem that as though uh it uh it it's systematic enough to to cause kind of a global financial crisis. And again, the last one was pretty scary for about a day or two. >> Yeah, it's funny how the the Fed QE package sort of offsets perhaps the the carry trade unwinding here because SP yields are spiking in Japan here. Yeah, look, I don't think anybody really understands QE other than that it's another demand for Treasury securities. Uh, and speaking of that, stable coin is another demand for Treasury securities. I mean, one day we might have a a debt crisis. one day uh people like Ray Dalia who's been pentificating about a debt crisis for an imminent one for a long time uh which just hasn't been imminent. Uh eventually they might get it right. Uh but um you know I'll I'll worry about the debt the debt situation when the bond market worries about it. Right now the bond market is pretty laid-back at 4%. I I think four to 5% is kind of a normal bond deal. That's where we were before the great financial crisis and I think that's where we're going to be uh in 2026. >> Let's come back to gold. We touched it on briefly already, but uh what do you make of the precious metal right now? We're trading at all-time high levels. We're around $4,500 an ounce. Silver ju just as high. Uh $75 an ounce roughly. Uh you called it a geopolitical hedge, not an inflation hedge. Um what do you make of it right now and going into >> first uh first a little hedge clause disclosure. I am totally unqualified to comment on precious metals. I I don't I don't follow the the supply and demand very closely. I'm about as informed as anybody else. But that doesn't mean I can't have my opinion. I mean everybody has an opinion on gold just the way they have on Bitcoin. And the nice thing about both both assets is there's no way to value them. So you can say whatever you want uh you know as a as an upside and as a as a downside. So over the years and I've been doing this for a while. I really never commented on gold. I basically said that's my hedge cause and that's my conclusion. Uh but uh when we rose above 2,000 in uh 2024 I said you know what that uh that might might be uh a major break breakout. And at the time I did attribute it to geopolitics to uh Russia invading Ukraine in 2022. Uh the US and Europe freezing the uh international reserves, foreign exchange reserves of of the Russians. Uh other central banks in countries that don't like us or don't don't like the West started buying more gold. And I said, "It's that simple." Uh so I turned bullish on gold. Uh what else did you really have to know? Uh and then there there there are series and uh letters that do follow gold purchases by the central bank and they seem to be putting uh their money where their mouths were in terms of buying gold. Uh then when it crossed above 3,000 at the beginning of this year, um I uh I'm a fundamentalist, but I said, you know what, I I see I I see something in the charts here. I see a pattern. And I pulled out my uh my ruler from grammar school with a a pencil and said I can draw an upward channel here, you know, connecting the lows and and the highs. And I said, well, let's, you know, if nothing else, let's go with the technicals. And I said it could get to 4,000 by the end of uh of 2025. And I wasn't bullish enough. I was wrong. It was it got up, I think, to 4,500. Then just uh the other day it had a uh this would be December 29th it had it dropped like $200 and then uh in December 30th it at least in the morning it it recovered. Uh a lot of that had to do with margin margins were raised on silver. Silver's gone straight up and that kind of got everybody uh nervous but yeah I I still like gold. As a matter of fact, when I got to 4500, maybe I got a little bit too excited about how smart I am and uh got carried away and said, "You know what? Maybe we'll get to uh instead of 5,000 by the end of 2026, maybe we'll get to 6,000." Uh and then I've been talking about 10,000 uh by the end of the decade, I call it the roaring 2020s. And in the roaring 2020s, the price of gold could get to 10,000. Now in this case I do have a chart that I've shown people that uh can actually justify that uh and it's sort of quasi fundamental quasi um technical and that is if you put you can do this at home all by yourself. If you take the S&P 500 uh index and put it in a chart um and on the very same chart with the same scale, put in the price of gold since uh Nixon closed the gold window in the early 70s, uh they fit they fit on the same chart and you can see that they're inversely correlated over a cycle, which means that gold is a very good diversifier for the S&P. When the S&P 500 goes up, gold goes down. When the S&P is weak, gold goes up. And so you get you kind of smooth out the volatility in your portfolio. Uh but I also noticed that the trend looked like it for both of them was going to kind of get to the same point at the end of the decade. And I've been forecasting 10,000 on the S&P 500 by the end of the decade, which is not a crazy uh uh outlook. It's kind of consistent with a kind of a normal growth in earnings. But what is crazy in that scenario is I don't see a recession, but I didn't see a recession since the beginning of the decade. And so far so good, so I'm going to stick with it. So 10 grand uh on the S&P by the end of 2029, 10 grand on the price of gold by the end of 2029. And it does not come with a money back guarantee. >> You don't refund any money, eh? No. No. Fantastic. Um, Ed, I just want to use the last couple minutes that we have here, maybe run through a couple base cases for 2026. Just just brief bit recapping what we've already discussed, but what what is your base case? What's your outlook for US growth going into 2026 here? >> Well, again, since 2020, uh, I've been talking about this turning out to be the roaring 2020s, but I didn't say I'm 100% certain. I mean, there's always others possibilities, but that's my base case. And the base case was that uh we would have a shortage of skilled labor. That companies would have the technologies they need to increase productivity. Productivity would boost growth, would keep inflation down, uh would allow wages to rise faster than prices. You need real wages to go up if you don't have an increase in the headcount of consumers because the labor market's not hiring as many people. And uh it would be great for profits. And so far so good. So, I'm going to stick with it and argue that uh maybe we started to really see a significant uh uh upward growth rate in productivity in 2025 and you know it's it kind of recovered back to its historical average over the past couple of years back to 2%. So now I think it's probably getting close to 3% and if that continues into next year and the year after that then the roaring 2020 scenario will really have worked out very well. So I'm looking for three three and a half% real GDP growth uh in u in the coming year >> in that context. What's your base case for inflation then? >> Well in a roaring 2020 scenario to make it all consistent productivity growth uh right now if you take unit labor cost inflation which is sort of the underlying inflation rate in the labor market that determines the overall inflation rate. Unit labor cost inflation is running at only two and a half percent. And unit labor cost inflation is uh it's wage it's hourly compensation divided by productivity. So the strength in productivity has brought unit labor cost inflation down to 2 and a half% which is roughly where the major consumer price indexes inflation rates are right now. They're a little north of that. uh next year I could see that uh unit labor cost inflation down to 2% and that would in fact bring the consumer price indexes down to the Fed's two 2% target. So I'm optimistic that uh we're not going to see a revisiting of an inflation spike. Like you know some people said look at the similarity between inflation now and the 1970s kind of predicting there'd be another uh move to the upside. I'm not predicting that. >> La last question is really just about the Fed funds rate. Where do you see it uh by year end 2026? >> Well, uh again, they're just not listening to me. I don't think we needed all this all this easing. I mean, it's been great for the fin financial markets. I just don't want to see a meltup meltdown s scenario. I don't want to see a scenario where easy money creates financial instability. Uh, I'd like this uh roaring 2020s to work so well that uh I'll be around to talk about the roaring 2030s. Uh recognizing that historical analogies are not happy ones when you look at the 1930s, but we could discuss that in another uh session discussion together. Uh but I will say the the the main risk I see to the economy is uh excessively stimulative monetary and fiscal policies which the bond market reacts badly to. Um, other than that, um, there, you know, there are black swans that that that may be out there that I I don't know about and I'll have to rethink things. >> Absolutely. No, I tremendously appreciate your time. I called you Mr. Thousand% uh at the beginning. Um, where can our audience follow some of your picks and some of your content? >> Yeah. Well, that what you Thanks for the compliment. that that's just kind of a a curse because from a contrarian perspective, it probably means I'm I'm way overdue to be to be wrong. So I I'll I'll I'll take whatever the fates hand me. But uh www.yardenniquicktakes.com uh will get you to the u uh research that we do for individual investors. There's also an institutional level, but I think for most of of your audience, the the individuals should be pretty useful. >> Absolutely. No, fantastic. Ed, thank you so much for joining us. Happy New Year. All the best for 2026. Can't wait to do this again in the first half of next year. >> Looking forward to that. And everybody else, thank you so much for tuning in. Happy New Year to you as well. Health and wealth be careful out there. It is volatile, especially in the precious metals. So pay attention uh and just be careful. Don't overlever and pay attention to your positions. Have fun. Leave a comment down below. Uh let us know how are your positioning perhaps in going into the new year. What are your inflation? What are your growth expectations? We do want to hear from you. Thank you so much for tuning in and take care out there.
2026 GOLD Price Target You Need To Hear | Ed Yardeni
Summary
Transcript
2025 is about over and we need to recap what has happened. No better guest to invite to this show than Ed Yardi of Yard Denny Research. Um I I went through our last conversation back in April and I have to he was betting close to a thousand on his calls whether it was about gold price targets whether it was about the market and the fear sentiment all of that. I really excited to have him back recap some of the calls but also get an outlook for 2026. What can we expect? Um what is really driving markets right now? How much is the fear trade still happening? Is the Fed still cornered or have they moved? Have they given in? Uh what are they going to do next year? As you all know, we'll see a new Fed share be announced hope probably soon. So we we'll see what that all means for us here as investors and the market participants of course. But before I switch over to my guest, hit that like and subscribe button. It helps us out tremendously. Bring fantastic guests like Ed on and we just appreciate it. So thank you so much for doing that. now at Mr. 1000. Really appreciate you joining us again. Thanks so much for coming back on here on So Financially. >> Thank you. My my pleasure. >> Yeah, Ed, really looking forward to recapping last year uh or this past year with you. Um we've had you on back in April. Your calls have been tremendous. Um we had you on about 3 weeks post deliberation day and uh of course fear sentiment was extremely high. I just looked at the fear and greed index, neutral territory here on CNN. Um what what is your assessment of the market right now? What's sentiment? Well, I think rather than fear, what we have is fatigue. I think there's AI fatigue. Uh maybe I'm maybe I'm the only one that's fatigued by AI, but I think a lot of us are just kind of like, okay, enough already. Uh and so I I think that's going to weigh on maybe some of the AI related trades. And as a matter of fact, a few weeks ago, I suggested maybe it's time to lighten up in tech and communication services and on the Magnificent 7. uh because uh they've uh had such a great run. They account for so much uh of the market capitalization of the S&P 500 and maybe now it's time finally for the market to actually broaden out to what I call the impressive 493. Uh, so if I'm right about AI fatigue, uh, that's not a a bearish call, that's a bullish call because it it implies the broadening out of the market to the to the customers of all these producers of AI. Um, I mean, these producers of AI aren't going to make any money if they don't have any customers that are getting some benefit out of it. And I think a lot of companies that use this technology and other technologies, we'll see their productivity increase, which is good for profits. One other thing I would mention is I think everybody is in fact looking at AI to see how it might uh increase the productivity of their business and I think a lot of companies may may conclude that it's too early on uh to really embrace AI but that whole exercise of looking at your entire company from from from scratch may very well reveal areas where productivity can be increased uh kind of willy-nilly without doing much uh much effort other than restructuring things. >> AB: >> Absolutely. No, there's uh restructuring is happening. We're seeing that across the board. The question is now, how does that translate into markets, into margins? Um we're seeing layoffs um happening as well. So, the economy is on on shaky footing. Um I I would say because the Fed is very nervous about the employment statistics. >> Yeah. Well, yeah, it's it's on shaky grounds when you look at the labor market and I I can't dismiss that. That's obviously important. I think some of the problems maybe a lot of the problems in the labor market are structural in nature. U I think AI is uh caused a lot of companies to uh freeze their headcount u basically say let's let's wait until we see whether this AI technology can allow us to increase the productivity of the people we have without having to increase more. The baby boomers are retiring and uh they're retiring with a lot of experience and they're hard hard to replace and especially in a world of AI. Uh you know, you can't fully trust AI. It does occasionally have hallucinations and turn delusional. So you need humans to actually double check their their output to make sure that it is in fact correct. Uh so that may be an issue in the labor market. But look, I I I at at at the beginning of the decade in 2020, I started uh positing that this could be uh the roaring 2020s when we look back on the decade. And uh so far so good. And my basic view was that we are going to see a shortage of of labor, skilled labor especially as the baby boomers retire. uh and that that would force companies to scramble to increase the productivity of whoever they had working for them and I think that's worked out pretty well and we are seeing that the economy despite the weakness in labor markets doing great I mean real GDP has been very strong and productivity numbers for this year are going to be over 3% uh and the average is about 2% uh and next year I think could be more of the same so we could have surprisingly strong real GDP with the help of some extremely maybe excessively stimulated fiscal and monetary policy. Uh but all in all um I think the economy is actually uh has been resilient and will continue to be resilient. >> It sounds like you're a little bit surprised by that. I'm you know I'm trying to read between the lines here. Are you surprised that the economy is resilient? >> Uh I I don't know what you caught in my intonation but no not not at all. As a matter of fact, I I think I was uh I don't know if I was the only one, but I was one of the few that for the past four years pointed out that we were having the most widely anticipated recession of all times. It just wasn't going to happen. And uh I I was touting the resilience of the economy. I said the consumer isn't going to fade. Uh even now there's a lot of talk about depressed consumers. And I keep pointing out that when we Americans are happy, we spend money. when we're depressed, we spend even more money. Uh but but more seriously, I was saying, look, my I'm a baby boomer. I'm still working for a living, but my friends are retiring. The baby boomers collectively, according to Fed data, have $80 trillion of net worth. And what's the point of accumulating all that? Well, it's to retire. And once you retire, start spending it. Uh so I I I think real disposable income is actually going to be pretty weak uh kind of flat because a lot of a lot of my friends are retiring and they had been making some pretty nice uh salaries and uh and and and so on. Uh and now they're spending the money. Um the only thing they the only uncertainty they face is they don't know how long they're going to live. So they don't quite know how how much uh to to spend. I think they want to leave some to their kids. Maybe not. The kids never listen. they didn't clean up. So maybe that's a factor. Uh but I also argue that capital spending would uh be very u resilient and interest rate insensitive because technologies capital spending now accounts for over 50% of capital spending. And the naysayers were saying well no uh we got this terrible deficit. And I was saying well that's true we do but that's actually stimulative. uh and that was another reason to believe that the economy wasn't going to uh slow down and so if it worked for the past well since the beginning of the decade why not uh learn from that and conclude maybe it'll remain resilient. >> No, absolutely. And maybe to to quote what you said back in April, you said bull markets don't die of old age, they're killed by policy mistakes. Yeah. >> So I'm I'm really curious like have we seen that policy mistake happen already or are we waiting for it to happen? Because >> Yeah. Well, I mean, you can't say that we're going to have a recession because fiscal and monetary policies are too tight. Uh, what you can say is that they're ex excessively stimulative. I know at the Fed, they still think that a three and a half% Fed funds rate is restrictive because they have this delusion that there's some neutral Fed funds rate out there that's more like 3%. Uh but as you as you know uh if you ask different Fed officials what their estimate of the neutral is it it runs the gamut from two two to 4%. So where does 3% come from? It's an average it's an average of 19 participants on the FOMC. So it's total nonsense. Uh and meanwhile the Fed has been lowering interest rates and the bond market hasn't cooperated. Look at what happened last year. Uh I mean the Fed just won't listen to me. It's very frustrating. I told them last year, you know, you lower you start lowering interest rates, economy is resilient, doesn't really need it. The bond market might not cooperate and I I didn't expect the bond yield to go up 100 basis points completely offsetting the 100 basis point drop in the Fed funds rate and that was last year. this year in 20 at 25 as as we wrap up the year. They just did another 75 basis points and the bond market uh kind of yawned and said no we're going to keep it above 4% for the 10 year and mortgage rates remain relatively high for wouldbe home buyers. So I think if there's a policy mistake here it's excessive uh stimulus. Uh, and where that could get us into trouble in 2026 is if the bond vigilantes, a phrase I coined back in 1983, if the bond vigilantes say, you know, this is just way too much stimulus. And what I really have in mind is that so-called um big beautiful bill act uh that was passed by Congress and signed by the president last July that was made retroactive to the beginning of 2025. and the president as well as his treasury secretary have both uh you know been extremely uh vocal to let people know that they're going to get some pretty significant refunds uh come April when they file their uh tax returns and they expect that that'll make them happier and make them vote for Republicans in the midterm elections and will boost the economy. It'll certainly boost the economy and maybe more than the necessary and then maybe somewhere over the next few months we'll conclude that you know what we're still down at 2% on the inflation rate. It's still closer to three than to two and the bond yield then might go up uh maybe even significantly. uh I don't know that it goes to 5% maybe four and 3/4% people start talking about five and then some of the outliers talk about six and that spooks the stock market and so you know I'm bullish on the market in 2026 but I think the next few months could be uh a bit of a I I think it could be a little difficult >> yeah just coming back to the bond market and what you just mentioned the Fed interacting with the bond market maybe even uh you know doing nonQE QE um yeah >> we need to come up with a better term term, by the way. But, uh, >> yeah, I think it's QE3 or QE4, mini QE, whatever. >> Yeah. Um, what do you make of it? $40 billion. Um, you know, seems to be a light version, like QE light, but it is QE after all, despite not being called QE by by the Fed. What do you make of it? Like, how inflationary is it? >> It's not that light, right? I mean, I I think they've basically I I can't quite sort out the language that they use, but it sounds like they're going to do 40 billion per month and uh increasing their the size of their of their balance sheet and they'll do it in Treasury bills. And it sounds like they're basically going to do it through April and then kind of revisit. Uh so 40 billion per month adds up to to some real money. it does add a lot of liquidity to an economy that's uh already sitting on almost eight trillion dollars of just money market mutual funds. Uh so there's a tremendous amount of liquidity in the system and that's why uh it's pretty hard to get this uh stock market to go down because there's buying on the dip when there's a lot of liquidity uh obviously has been working. >> That's a good point actually because I wanted to ask you a follow-up question like where do we see that money resurface? It's about $200 billion. That's five months starting December 1st, ending end of April. Uh where do you see that resurface? >> Well, um I I I think that money uh is what keeps uh it does keep short-term rates down. I think it just resurfaces and uh really easy credit conditions in the money markets, but again, I think that could be offset by uh a bond market that won't cooperate. Well, the question is now is like as as investors and that's where we come from uh from that angle like how do we participate in this is there even a way to participate or benefit from that uh nonQE QE position here? >> Well, I I think uh again I think you have to put the package together. It's not just the uh the mini QE. It's also the uh the the mega refunds uh that are are going to hit the economy. And then of course tax rates uh uh were uh kept at low and some tax rates were reduced for tips and social security and things like that. So when when you put that package together with a deficit that's humongous uh when the economy has grown three to 4% we shouldn't be running deficits at all let alone one and a half to2 trillion dollars. So all that is very stimulative uh for the economy. It's great for uh earnings therefore and so the earningsled bull market continues. The only question is rotation. Will we finally get some rotation? And uh maybe 2026 is the year where things change somewhat in the market of where you want to be. I've been recommending for many years overweighting technology and communication services. But then I'm looking at the size of these things, the share of these two sectors. They're only two of the 11 sectors. And just those two sectors account for 45% of the market capitalization of the S&P 500. You see, my dog Max was very excited about that. Uh but I got excited about it. So, well, wait a second. I'm telling people to overweight two sectors that are already 45% of the S&P 500. Surely that can't represent their their size in the economy and and and total earnings. Uh obviously their share of earnings has gone up but not the way their capitalization has gone up. So I I trimmed it back. I said let's just market weight. Market weight still leaves me with 45% in in two sectors and let's uh put more money into what what we have been overweing still financials. Financials are a good uh way to play tech fintech. You know, these financials are spending billions of dollars uh to use technology to increase their productivity, efficiency, lower their costs. Uh industrials continue to benefit uh from onshoring from uh uh reglobalization. I don't think we've dellobalized. I think everybody's reglobalizing. Uh and so production is coming back to to the US. Um and of course u you know it's hard to really know how much of the trillions of dollars that uh the president President Trump has managed to coersse other countries to contribute to the well-being of the United States. How much of that will actually show up? But it could be trillions of dollars the way he's he he presented it. I mean there is a specific list on the White House's website showing what the commitments are. Um the only question is whether they'll just drag their feet until he's he's gone and then you know try to forget about the commitments. Uh because it's kind of weird to think that other countries want to commit to stimulating our economy when they've got problems of their own that they can use the money for. But that it is what it is. So uh I I would say uh we added health care. We uh we we kind of ignored healthcare for years. Um but healthcare particularly biotech uh looks uh like an overweight uh to us. Uh you can even uh over I mean it's it's it's easy to overweight energy and materials because they're so tiny in the market capitalization the S&P 500 and I do like gold quite a bit precious metals. So you could do that with materials and I uh I I'm kind of torn about energy. I think oil is in a kind of a death dive. Uh uh I think I think we've seen peak oil and a lot of it has to do with Chinese driving EVs uh and not uh g gasoline powered cars. >> Pneumont is the only gold miner in the S&P 500 by the way. Seventh best performing stock last I checked about a week ago or so. It was ranked second. It was ranked second for a while. >> Yeah. Let me uh I don't know. I forgot to turn off my phone, but uh yeah, I mean the GLD is a perfectly good uh ETF. There's a a mini version of that. Uh Heeka has been a great way to play silver. Um so, uh yeah, there there are ways to to play and you don't have to play it just with an S&P 500 company, obviously. >> No, no, no. We'll get to gold in a second. And I just have one more followup and something you you actually mentioned as you were talking about boomers spending money. I thought about looking at cruise line stocks but uh they're completely underperforming right now. I think uh I Norwegian or Royal one of them is down 27% of the year. Uh is that a sector you're looking at at all? Just random question here. >> Uh I've liked the sector. Uh you know I I I honestly I don't drill down that deeply. I I do the I mean I I I take the sectors and and kind of give you my bets there. Uh and then um you know the uh cruise lines are kind of consumer discretionary and uh they are definitely benefiting from retiring uh baby boomers. A lot of my friends that used to maybe go on a cruise once every five years and once every two years are now doing two or three cruises a year. Uh so I I think it's just some profit taken in that sector. It's been a very very strong sector and it's probably an opportunity. >> No, no, fair enough. Like we don't need to go down deeper in that rabbit hole. I'm just curious because you talked about boomers earlier. Um let's cycle a bit through the asset classes. The US dollar um we've seen a lot of headlines the last 12 months like oh the dollar is doomed. Um dd dollararization is happening. It's gotten a little quieter on that front. Uh where do you say we are at right now in that? Well, you know, a lot of people look at the DXY dollar index, which is really kind of a strange way to look at the dollar because it's really the euro at 57. It's it's a fixed weight index and 57%. Look at that. Max left. I guess he got bored with our conversation. I find it interesting. Uh but the D the DXY is 57% uh uh euro and then it's got the yen. it's it's develop it's the the the key currencies. Um and so it's really its strength has really reflected the strength of the euro. And I'm a little puzzled by that because I don't see what all the excitement is about Europe. Not the economy. The financial the the the financial side. The the economy has done uh not so great but the uh stock market has done ex extremely well. Uh Spain has been one of the outperformers. financials have done extremely well in uh in Europe. But maybe that's run its course. But I think there's this kind of uh view that over the past year money has uh foreigners have taken their money out of the US and and put it in Europe, put it in emerging markets and there has been outperformance overseas. But the Treasury does put together um uh monthly data on net capital inflows from foreigners. It's bizarre, but over the past 12 months through I think uh October is is the latest data uh foreign net equity inflows into the US equity market all-time record high of over $700 billion uh and uh similar kind of numbers uh like 800 900 billion dollars for uh fixed income securities. So a tremendous amount of inflow still coming into the US. So from from the fundamental perspective, from a flow of funds pers perspective, I'm not bearish. But uh you know, if you look at the DXY, the DXY is kind of hanging by its fingernails to an upward trend line. Uh that's that if it breaks, people like will freak out and say that the dollar's, you know, going into a death dive. I I don't see it. the US capital market just way too big, too too liquid, uh, too dependable for people to just, uh, uh, bail out. >> To get a bit more specific on maybe that topic, could in could the unwinding of the yen carry trade sort of set that off perhaps in 2026? Is that something you look at? And might that something that might be happening? >> Kind of been there, done it. Wasn't it like what about a year ago? We had sort of a >> I think it was August 24, wasn't it? >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. We had a carry trade scare and it lasted what two days. Um I I mean the people who are paying playing the carry trade are big boys and girls. They they they they know what what the risks are. Basically what they're doing is borrowing money real cheaply in Japan uh and uh and then investing it uh in other parts of the world. And so when they take those yen and convert them to other currencies, the yen goes down, which means that when they have to pay it back, it's even it's it's another benefit of the carry trade. Uh but uh right now the yen is still weak, but the the the cost of borrowing money in Japan is definitely g gone up. And uh we could have another carry trade unwind, but it doesn't seem that as though uh it uh it it's systematic enough to to cause kind of a global financial crisis. And again, the last one was pretty scary for about a day or two. >> Yeah, it's funny how the the Fed QE package sort of offsets perhaps the the carry trade unwinding here because SP yields are spiking in Japan here. Yeah, look, I don't think anybody really understands QE other than that it's another demand for Treasury securities. Uh, and speaking of that, stable coin is another demand for Treasury securities. I mean, one day we might have a a debt crisis. one day uh people like Ray Dalia who's been pentificating about a debt crisis for an imminent one for a long time uh which just hasn't been imminent. Uh eventually they might get it right. Uh but um you know I'll I'll worry about the debt the debt situation when the bond market worries about it. Right now the bond market is pretty laid-back at 4%. I I think four to 5% is kind of a normal bond deal. That's where we were before the great financial crisis and I think that's where we're going to be uh in 2026. >> Let's come back to gold. We touched it on briefly already, but uh what do you make of the precious metal right now? We're trading at all-time high levels. We're around $4,500 an ounce. Silver ju just as high. Uh $75 an ounce roughly. Uh you called it a geopolitical hedge, not an inflation hedge. Um what do you make of it right now and going into >> first uh first a little hedge clause disclosure. I am totally unqualified to comment on precious metals. I I don't I don't follow the the supply and demand very closely. I'm about as informed as anybody else. But that doesn't mean I can't have my opinion. I mean everybody has an opinion on gold just the way they have on Bitcoin. And the nice thing about both both assets is there's no way to value them. So you can say whatever you want uh you know as a as an upside and as a as a downside. So over the years and I've been doing this for a while. I really never commented on gold. I basically said that's my hedge cause and that's my conclusion. Uh but uh when we rose above 2,000 in uh 2024 I said you know what that uh that might might be uh a major break breakout. And at the time I did attribute it to geopolitics to uh Russia invading Ukraine in 2022. Uh the US and Europe freezing the uh international reserves, foreign exchange reserves of of the Russians. Uh other central banks in countries that don't like us or don't don't like the West started buying more gold. And I said, "It's that simple." Uh so I turned bullish on gold. Uh what else did you really have to know? Uh and then there there there are series and uh letters that do follow gold purchases by the central bank and they seem to be putting uh their money where their mouths were in terms of buying gold. Uh then when it crossed above 3,000 at the beginning of this year, um I uh I'm a fundamentalist, but I said, you know what, I I see I I see something in the charts here. I see a pattern. And I pulled out my uh my ruler from grammar school with a a pencil and said I can draw an upward channel here, you know, connecting the lows and and the highs. And I said, well, let's, you know, if nothing else, let's go with the technicals. And I said it could get to 4,000 by the end of uh of 2025. And I wasn't bullish enough. I was wrong. It was it got up, I think, to 4,500. Then just uh the other day it had a uh this would be December 29th it had it dropped like $200 and then uh in December 30th it at least in the morning it it recovered. Uh a lot of that had to do with margin margins were raised on silver. Silver's gone straight up and that kind of got everybody uh nervous but yeah I I still like gold. As a matter of fact, when I got to 4500, maybe I got a little bit too excited about how smart I am and uh got carried away and said, "You know what? Maybe we'll get to uh instead of 5,000 by the end of 2026, maybe we'll get to 6,000." Uh and then I've been talking about 10,000 uh by the end of the decade, I call it the roaring 2020s. And in the roaring 2020s, the price of gold could get to 10,000. Now in this case I do have a chart that I've shown people that uh can actually justify that uh and it's sort of quasi fundamental quasi um technical and that is if you put you can do this at home all by yourself. If you take the S&P 500 uh index and put it in a chart um and on the very same chart with the same scale, put in the price of gold since uh Nixon closed the gold window in the early 70s, uh they fit they fit on the same chart and you can see that they're inversely correlated over a cycle, which means that gold is a very good diversifier for the S&P. When the S&P 500 goes up, gold goes down. When the S&P is weak, gold goes up. And so you get you kind of smooth out the volatility in your portfolio. Uh but I also noticed that the trend looked like it for both of them was going to kind of get to the same point at the end of the decade. And I've been forecasting 10,000 on the S&P 500 by the end of the decade, which is not a crazy uh uh outlook. It's kind of consistent with a kind of a normal growth in earnings. But what is crazy in that scenario is I don't see a recession, but I didn't see a recession since the beginning of the decade. And so far so good, so I'm going to stick with it. So 10 grand uh on the S&P by the end of 2029, 10 grand on the price of gold by the end of 2029. And it does not come with a money back guarantee. >> You don't refund any money, eh? No. No. Fantastic. Um, Ed, I just want to use the last couple minutes that we have here, maybe run through a couple base cases for 2026. Just just brief bit recapping what we've already discussed, but what what is your base case? What's your outlook for US growth going into 2026 here? >> Well, again, since 2020, uh, I've been talking about this turning out to be the roaring 2020s, but I didn't say I'm 100% certain. I mean, there's always others possibilities, but that's my base case. And the base case was that uh we would have a shortage of skilled labor. That companies would have the technologies they need to increase productivity. Productivity would boost growth, would keep inflation down, uh would allow wages to rise faster than prices. You need real wages to go up if you don't have an increase in the headcount of consumers because the labor market's not hiring as many people. And uh it would be great for profits. And so far so good. So, I'm going to stick with it and argue that uh maybe we started to really see a significant uh uh upward growth rate in productivity in 2025 and you know it's it kind of recovered back to its historical average over the past couple of years back to 2%. So now I think it's probably getting close to 3% and if that continues into next year and the year after that then the roaring 2020 scenario will really have worked out very well. So I'm looking for three three and a half% real GDP growth uh in u in the coming year >> in that context. What's your base case for inflation then? >> Well in a roaring 2020 scenario to make it all consistent productivity growth uh right now if you take unit labor cost inflation which is sort of the underlying inflation rate in the labor market that determines the overall inflation rate. Unit labor cost inflation is running at only two and a half percent. And unit labor cost inflation is uh it's wage it's hourly compensation divided by productivity. So the strength in productivity has brought unit labor cost inflation down to 2 and a half% which is roughly where the major consumer price indexes inflation rates are right now. They're a little north of that. uh next year I could see that uh unit labor cost inflation down to 2% and that would in fact bring the consumer price indexes down to the Fed's two 2% target. So I'm optimistic that uh we're not going to see a revisiting of an inflation spike. Like you know some people said look at the similarity between inflation now and the 1970s kind of predicting there'd be another uh move to the upside. I'm not predicting that. >> La last question is really just about the Fed funds rate. Where do you see it uh by year end 2026? >> Well, uh again, they're just not listening to me. I don't think we needed all this all this easing. I mean, it's been great for the fin financial markets. I just don't want to see a meltup meltdown s scenario. I don't want to see a scenario where easy money creates financial instability. Uh, I'd like this uh roaring 2020s to work so well that uh I'll be around to talk about the roaring 2030s. Uh recognizing that historical analogies are not happy ones when you look at the 1930s, but we could discuss that in another uh session discussion together. Uh but I will say the the the main risk I see to the economy is uh excessively stimulative monetary and fiscal policies which the bond market reacts badly to. Um, other than that, um, there, you know, there are black swans that that that may be out there that I I don't know about and I'll have to rethink things. >> Absolutely. No, I tremendously appreciate your time. I called you Mr. Thousand% uh at the beginning. Um, where can our audience follow some of your picks and some of your content? >> Yeah. Well, that what you Thanks for the compliment. that that's just kind of a a curse because from a contrarian perspective, it probably means I'm I'm way overdue to be to be wrong. So I I'll I'll I'll take whatever the fates hand me. But uh www.yardenniquicktakes.com uh will get you to the u uh research that we do for individual investors. There's also an institutional level, but I think for most of of your audience, the the individuals should be pretty useful. >> Absolutely. No, fantastic. Ed, thank you so much for joining us. Happy New Year. All the best for 2026. Can't wait to do this again in the first half of next year. >> Looking forward to that. And everybody else, thank you so much for tuning in. Happy New Year to you as well. Health and wealth be careful out there. It is volatile, especially in the precious metals. So pay attention uh and just be careful. Don't overlever and pay attention to your positions. Have fun. Leave a comment down below. Uh let us know how are your positioning perhaps in going into the new year. What are your inflation? What are your growth expectations? We do want to hear from you. Thank you so much for tuning in and take care out there.