Market Outlook: The hosts see U.S. equities as overstretched after a sharp rally, highlighting systematic flows and elevated multiples, and expect a near-term correction.
US Dollar Weakness: They argue a new secular downtrend is underway in the dollar, with broken supports and potential to revisit the 90 DXY range.
Crude Oil: Recent selloff is viewed as risk premium coming out on political rhetoric; they favor buying dips, with potential for renewed spikes if tensions re-escalate.
Gold: Dip is attributed to perceived easing of geopolitical risk and is seen as a buy, with dollar weakness as a tailwind and potential for further upside on a breakout.
Uranium: Spot prices are strengthening, signaling a new bull phase after a prolonged bear market; they plan to be fully allocated ahead of seasonal strength into September.
US Treasuries: 10-year yields have eased from highs; while neutral on duration, they see asymmetric opportunities in short-term rate futures if cuts increase.
Risks: Potential catalysts for equity downside include weak jobs data, tariffs, and disappointing earnings, given the market’s overbought condition.
Transcript
[Music] This is Macrovoices, the free weekly financial podcast targeting professional finance, high- netw worth individuals, family offices, and other sophisticated investors. Macrovoices is all about the brightest minds in the world of finance and macroeconomics telling it like it is. Bullish or bearish, no holds barred. Now, here are your hosts, Eric Townsend and Patrick Szna. Eric, it was great to have David back on the show. Now, let's get to that chart deck. Listeners, you're going to find the download link for the postgame chart deck in your research roundup email. If you don't have a research roundup email, that means you have not yet registered at macrovoiceic.com. Just go to our homepage macrovoice.com and click on the red button over David's picture saying looking for the downloads. Okay, Eric, let's start off with your thoughts here on the equity markets. Well, Patrick, my June hedges have expired, so I'm starting to accumulate September put spreads on S&P E- mini futures, but not too aggressively here. I think they're going to get cheaper before they get more expensive. So, I'm taking my time starting to accumulate and build a position. Eric, we continue to be at a really interesting moment in the markets here. We are now directly retesting those uh December, January, February highs up around uh the 6100 area. Now, to accompany that, we basically had a straight line rally from the April lows up 26 27% in a span of like 75 days. And so, this market is overstretched. Now one thing that is becoming an inherent feature of markets is the uh direct influence of flows particularly by systematic money. Recently there's been huge flows on vault targeting funds that are uh doing a substantial buying driven by contracting real volatility. At the same time, we've had CTAs all have to do the bullish flip on the upside and dealers uh which were long a whole bunch of gamma were actually uh forced to pin and drive this market uh higher toward that pin and now kind of influencing this short-term market direction. The point that I want to highlight is that all of these forces have now stretched this market and are now like David was suggesting trading at some pretty high multiples in an environment where we really now need a whole bunch of very positive news in order for the market to stay up here. We could have a jobs numbers disappoint next week. we could have uh some uh tariff issues and later in July we could have disappointed earnings that uh don't meet up to these lofty expectations. There's a lot of things that uh that are in play and the market trading up along these highs in an overbought condition, including the fact that we're now 250 S&P points above the 50-day moving average, which is about as far as it typically goes before beginning some sort of a correction. We're in a a window where the asymmetry is skewed against the bulls on the short term. That doesn't mean it has to be an ominous market drop like what we saw back in March and April. Not necessarily. But a correction is long overdue here. One of the even a 5% correction is 300 plus S&P points. Uh that could see us trading down to 5800 or even a little bit lower on a very quick get reversion. At this stage, I think that you have to be planning for at least some form of a correction and uh and things really could get very toppy here uh throughout the summer. All right, Eric, let's touch on that US dollar. Well, Patrick, the breakdown that we've seen this week to fresh lows below 97, trading at a 96 handle at recording time just confirms our predictions here on Macrovoices that a new secular downtrend is in play for the US dollar. And frankly, I think we could have a long way left to go to the downside. Well, on page three, I have that US dollar index chart, and we can really see those lows that were established in 2023 and 24 were not only decisively broken, but became resistance when the market tried to rally last month. We we seen in the over the last month is incredibly negative price distribution. Every rally has almost immediately failed as this is clearly in this uh decline of lower highs, lower lows and uh it persistently being hit on the bid. While we're seeing some currencies like the US dollar yen far more in a muddle, there's very clear trend in the euro pound and the Canadian dollar as an example. And so we are in find ourselves in a situation where this breakdown to a lower low has in fact put to bed this idea that we could have a support line or a double bottom along the previous low. And so the question is how low does it go? Well, the first and most immediate downside target is this 95 to 96 zone below another couple handles down where there's a measured move. But if we really zoom out on uh the weekly and monthly charts, there was this pronounced trade range that was established through 2016 all the way through 2021 for over 5 years where the bottom of the trade range was all the way down at the 90 level on the Dixie. Uh and the upper boundary range was this 100 to 102. And so if the the fact that we've broken down now is the question is are we now re-entering that trade range? Are we now uh vulnerable for the seeing the dollar index go all the way down to 90? Well, that's certainly on the table because with this breakdown, the distribution is so relentless. Even though the dollar is a bit oversold, it it's a clear trend that is in place and we want to first see where it settles down before trying to rockar call a a turning point in the dollar. All right, Eric, let's talk oil. Well, Patrick, you got to ask yourself, is this selloff that we've just had of $10 from more than $10 from uh $14 from the highs, is this a second chance to get in on an opportunity to get in on the long side of a new oil rally that could have legs? Well, clearly, uh, we've just seen a pretty violent reversal to the downside. But the question to ask yourself is why did we see that reversal to the downside? Well, it was because President Trump said problem totally solved and now all nuclear facilities, all nuclear enrichment capabilities, uh, centrifuges and so forth have been completely and totally obliterated and destroyed according to President Trump and precisely nobody else. Sorry to be blunt here, folks, but I I think this really is as simple as I don't think the president understands. Or maybe there's just people around him are telling him what they think he wants to hear, but I don't think he gets it. I don't think he realizes that most analysts, everybody other than himself is saying they didn't do that much damage. The bunker busters didn't really destroy all the nuclear facilities as hoped, and it probably would only be a few weeks to get them restarted again. Well, okay. If that's what happened, when President Trump does figure it out, he's probably going to get aggressive again. And what we've just seen is $14 of risk premium come out of this oil market because President Trump calmed down. Why would we think this is the last time President Trump is going to uh get uncom? seems to me like there's an awfully good chance that we see another big upward price spike in oil if we get uh another round of this. And that seems extremely likely, especially considering that nobody else, including the folks that read the bomb damage assessments, agree with the the president's view that everything has already been neutralized. He actually said that there would be no need in talks with Iran to even negotiate a new nuclear deal because there was nothing to negotiate. there's no more nuclear risk to worry about because it's all been obliterated. Uh nobody else thinks that that's true. So when President Trump figures out that it's not true, I think he's going to do something that's going to take oil back up. So uh I think it's potentially uh at least if you're in a speculative mood uh a bargain buying opportunity here to get in on this long. Patrick, what's your take on it based on the charts? Well, maximum volatility is definitely what we're seeing and there was a huge risk premium being put into oil and the fears that the escalation was going to draw the US deep into this confrontation and that was very rapidly withdrawn out of the market earlier this week. Uh we now are trading at a very interesting moment. the $6465 level on WTI is uh in my mind a kind of key pivot because if we're on a sustained basis not only below the 50-day moving average but below this retracement zone then the only outcome is crude oil going for a direct retest of April and May lows which are all the way in the 57 and 60 level and the question really is is uh while maybe uh the escalation of the situation isn't isn't that severe. Alternative point is that is oil in that kind of abundance that uh we could see in spite of all of these conditions oil trading right back to its previous lows. My view here is that it it's a buy on dip. Uh I don't think we're going to see at least I'm currently betting that we're not going to see that 57 to 60 zone and that this level will actually hold. Now does that mean I think oil is going to 80 85? Well, I mean, a lot of things would have to start kind of uh working in oil's favor for that kind of move, but a bounce back to $70 and us re-engage a new trade range where we spent September through January trading uh in in a kind of like $68 to $72 range. I totally think we can get up there and see a new elevated level uh for crude. So, I'm buying here looking for that kind of a bounce up to that zone. Eric, on page five, I have that gold chart. It continues to uh consolidate, but well above that 50-day moving average. Uh are you still bullish here? Well, Patrick, it makes perfect sense that we've had this deep uh dip or pullback or correction or whatever you want to call it, this 100 bucks down in gold price makes perfect sense for the same reasons that oil is selling off hard. Uh, you know, the world has been told now that nuclear holocaust was just diverted. Everything is fine. Iran nuclear facilities have all been destroyed. Uh, there's no more tension or grief between the US and Iran. Okay. Um, I think when President Trump figures out that the nuclear facilities were not really destroyed, that's all going to change. But for now, it makes perfect sense that if the the theme that's driving other markets is a perception that this is all blown over. You know, we saw uh 14 bucks come out of oil. We saw 100 bucks come out of gold. I think we're going to see both of them go back up. So, buying both of those dips makes perfect sense. Uh so far, the low on gold intraday has been 3308 3308 on the August contract. I know that number all too well because I only missed it by almost exactly five bucks on my resting limit order below the market which didn't get filled today. I think I still have a shot though. The slow stochastics are only just starting to touch the oversold uh range. The RSI is still mid-range. So, I think there's definitely room for another small wave down here. Maybe to oh, I don't know, you know, a high 32 something, 3290, 3293 in there somewhere. Maybe where I think the the bottom is, I'm still going to buy just above 3,300 on this dip if I can get it. And one way or another, I'll buy this dip. If it turns out I already missed the low, I'll chase it if I have to uh in order to get a seat at this table. Yeah, Eric, I'm in the buy on dip camp as well. Uh, at this moment, we have US dollar weakness, which typically is a tailwind for for gold that is priced in US dollars. And at the same time, almost all these pullbacks have held above its moving averages, held above fib zones, making it a very traditional consolidation. Now, at any one point, gold could start a bigger correction, but there's no reason at this moment from a price action perspective to believe that that has begun. And therefore, I'm in your camp that dips should be bought and there's room for this still to break out. Uh the first wave measured move is towards that 36 to 3700 if it does break out. So, we're watching whether this important 3,300 pivot ends up uh holding the line here. So, Eric, let's talk uranium. On page six, I have that spot physical uranium trust and uh prices have uh clearly been improving. What are your thoughts here, Patrick? The spot price of uranium, I've said many times, is the key. Once that gets moving, everything else will follow. And that's exactly what's happening. Uh spot uranium is $7750 now, almost at par with $80 term price of uranium, the contract price for long-term contracting of uranium, which is where all the volume happens in the uranium market. Now, unfortunately, the gap filling pullback on uranium miners that I was hoping for is probably much less likely to happen at this point. Seems like it's kind of game on for this bull market. And now that spot uranium is moving to the upside, uh it seems like it's uh everything we can just to hold our horses. So, I'm still hoping that from a seasonality perspective, you know, this market shouldn't really heat up until September. I'm still waiting for a nice big dip to buy, but if we don't get one by mid August and I haven't gotten my full allocation on a dip, then I'll buy at whatever price I have to in order to hit my max leverage target before we get to Labor Day. By which I mean American Labor Day, 1st of September. Uh I think it's around September that seasonality and right after the WNA conference, which I think this year is the first week of September. uh right after that conference is when the buyers usually really start buying and I definitely want to be at my max leverage when that happens. Well, Eric, of course, uh buying dips is always better than buying rips. But uh I think the bigger thing that I want to highlight is the fact that we had a very clear and pronounced bare market in uranium where from January of 2024 when it peaked uh we basically spent 15 months in a very clear distribution cycle that saw uranium virtually lose 50% of its value based on the that sprop physical uranium trust. Now, uh, that sequence of lower highs and lower lows in that downwards channel has finally been broken, and we've now spent over, uh, a month and a half in a bull trend above the 50-day moving average. This is the very distinctly different price action than we've seen in the year prior. And so, to me, there's a lot of evidence that uranium has obviously entered a new bull phase. Uh, buying dips is clearly the more tactical way of approaching it. Uh but I do believe that these are still the very beginning phases of a bull run that could last the rest of the year and even a chunk of next year. And so uh continuing to watch whether uranium uh can build on this is 100% on my watch list. Patrick, before we close, let's hit that 10-year Treasury yield. What are the charts telling you? That 10-year Treasury yield off of its May high near 460 has now dropped down to 428. So, uh, we're we're, uh, seeing, uh, yields slightly weakening on the downside, uh, rolling over. The big question, are bonds, uh, bottoming, and are we going to see a rip in the bond markets, or is this just a retracement from a interest rate market that is simply not ready to make higher yields at these levels? I'm uh, relatively more neutral on the 10 and the 30-year bond at this moment. there's plenty of room for them to be bottoming. Uh you know, David Rosenberg was talking about the idea that there's a very much asymmetry in owning these treasuries uh down along these levels. Uh but the question is is that have we really seen the beginning of this trend move and that is still very premature to make that call. But where I have higher conviction continues to be on page eight when I'm looking at that three month silver futures particularly I'm going out to December of 20126 18 months forward and this is uh where I find it really interesting because there's so many dynamics uh that could potentially have the Fed be forced to cut more interest rates than are currently being priced in. It could be uh the announcement of of a m much more uh dovish Fed chairman next year. It could be the um inflation continues to be benign or or a recession rears its ugly head. Whichever the catalyst to me uh I don't see much downside risk on this and I see obviously all sorts of of surprise risks that could actually have this thing rocket 100 basis points. continue to still really like this as a new trading opportunity. Folks, if you enjoy Patrick's chart decks, you can get them every single day of the week with a free trial of BigPictur Trading. The details are on the last pages of the slide deck or just go to bigpicturetrading.com. That concludes this edition of Macrovoices. Be sure to tune in each week to hear feature interviews with the brightest minds in finance and macroeconomics. Macrovoices is made possible by sponsorship from bigpicturrading.com, the internet's premier source of online education for traders. Please visit bigpicturetrading.com for more information. Please register your free account at macrovoices.com. Once registered, you'll receive our free weekly research roundup email containing links to supporting documents from our featured guests and the very best free financial content our volunteer research team could find on the internet each week. You'll also gain access to our free listener discussion forums and research library. And the more registered users we have, the more we'll be able to recruit high-profile feature interview guests for future programs. So, please register your free account today at macrovoices.com if you haven't already. You can subscribe to Macrovoices on iTunes to have Macrovoices automatically delivered to your mobile device each week free of charge. You can email questions for the program to mailbag macrovoices.com and we'll answer your questions on the air from time to time in our mailbag segment. Macrovoices is presented forformational and entertainment purposes only. The information presented on Macrovoices should not be construed as investment advice. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making investment decisions. The views and opinions expressed on macrovoices are those of the participants and do not necessarily reflect those of the show's hosts or sponsors. Macrovoices, its producers, sponsors, and hosts Eric Townsend and Patrick Serzna, shall not be liable for losses resulting from investment decisions based on information or viewpoints presented on Macrovoices. Macrovoices is made possible by sponsorship from big picture.com and by funding from fourth turning capital management LLC. For more information, visit macrovoices.com. [Music]
Talking Charts – MacroVoices #486
Summary
Transcript
[Music] This is Macrovoices, the free weekly financial podcast targeting professional finance, high- netw worth individuals, family offices, and other sophisticated investors. Macrovoices is all about the brightest minds in the world of finance and macroeconomics telling it like it is. Bullish or bearish, no holds barred. Now, here are your hosts, Eric Townsend and Patrick Szna. Eric, it was great to have David back on the show. Now, let's get to that chart deck. Listeners, you're going to find the download link for the postgame chart deck in your research roundup email. If you don't have a research roundup email, that means you have not yet registered at macrovoiceic.com. Just go to our homepage macrovoice.com and click on the red button over David's picture saying looking for the downloads. Okay, Eric, let's start off with your thoughts here on the equity markets. Well, Patrick, my June hedges have expired, so I'm starting to accumulate September put spreads on S&P E- mini futures, but not too aggressively here. I think they're going to get cheaper before they get more expensive. So, I'm taking my time starting to accumulate and build a position. Eric, we continue to be at a really interesting moment in the markets here. We are now directly retesting those uh December, January, February highs up around uh the 6100 area. Now, to accompany that, we basically had a straight line rally from the April lows up 26 27% in a span of like 75 days. And so, this market is overstretched. Now one thing that is becoming an inherent feature of markets is the uh direct influence of flows particularly by systematic money. Recently there's been huge flows on vault targeting funds that are uh doing a substantial buying driven by contracting real volatility. At the same time, we've had CTAs all have to do the bullish flip on the upside and dealers uh which were long a whole bunch of gamma were actually uh forced to pin and drive this market uh higher toward that pin and now kind of influencing this short-term market direction. The point that I want to highlight is that all of these forces have now stretched this market and are now like David was suggesting trading at some pretty high multiples in an environment where we really now need a whole bunch of very positive news in order for the market to stay up here. We could have a jobs numbers disappoint next week. we could have uh some uh tariff issues and later in July we could have disappointed earnings that uh don't meet up to these lofty expectations. There's a lot of things that uh that are in play and the market trading up along these highs in an overbought condition, including the fact that we're now 250 S&P points above the 50-day moving average, which is about as far as it typically goes before beginning some sort of a correction. We're in a a window where the asymmetry is skewed against the bulls on the short term. That doesn't mean it has to be an ominous market drop like what we saw back in March and April. Not necessarily. But a correction is long overdue here. One of the even a 5% correction is 300 plus S&P points. Uh that could see us trading down to 5800 or even a little bit lower on a very quick get reversion. At this stage, I think that you have to be planning for at least some form of a correction and uh and things really could get very toppy here uh throughout the summer. All right, Eric, let's touch on that US dollar. Well, Patrick, the breakdown that we've seen this week to fresh lows below 97, trading at a 96 handle at recording time just confirms our predictions here on Macrovoices that a new secular downtrend is in play for the US dollar. And frankly, I think we could have a long way left to go to the downside. Well, on page three, I have that US dollar index chart, and we can really see those lows that were established in 2023 and 24 were not only decisively broken, but became resistance when the market tried to rally last month. We we seen in the over the last month is incredibly negative price distribution. Every rally has almost immediately failed as this is clearly in this uh decline of lower highs, lower lows and uh it persistently being hit on the bid. While we're seeing some currencies like the US dollar yen far more in a muddle, there's very clear trend in the euro pound and the Canadian dollar as an example. And so we are in find ourselves in a situation where this breakdown to a lower low has in fact put to bed this idea that we could have a support line or a double bottom along the previous low. And so the question is how low does it go? Well, the first and most immediate downside target is this 95 to 96 zone below another couple handles down where there's a measured move. But if we really zoom out on uh the weekly and monthly charts, there was this pronounced trade range that was established through 2016 all the way through 2021 for over 5 years where the bottom of the trade range was all the way down at the 90 level on the Dixie. Uh and the upper boundary range was this 100 to 102. And so if the the fact that we've broken down now is the question is are we now re-entering that trade range? Are we now uh vulnerable for the seeing the dollar index go all the way down to 90? Well, that's certainly on the table because with this breakdown, the distribution is so relentless. Even though the dollar is a bit oversold, it it's a clear trend that is in place and we want to first see where it settles down before trying to rockar call a a turning point in the dollar. All right, Eric, let's talk oil. Well, Patrick, you got to ask yourself, is this selloff that we've just had of $10 from more than $10 from uh $14 from the highs, is this a second chance to get in on an opportunity to get in on the long side of a new oil rally that could have legs? Well, clearly, uh, we've just seen a pretty violent reversal to the downside. But the question to ask yourself is why did we see that reversal to the downside? Well, it was because President Trump said problem totally solved and now all nuclear facilities, all nuclear enrichment capabilities, uh, centrifuges and so forth have been completely and totally obliterated and destroyed according to President Trump and precisely nobody else. Sorry to be blunt here, folks, but I I think this really is as simple as I don't think the president understands. Or maybe there's just people around him are telling him what they think he wants to hear, but I don't think he gets it. I don't think he realizes that most analysts, everybody other than himself is saying they didn't do that much damage. The bunker busters didn't really destroy all the nuclear facilities as hoped, and it probably would only be a few weeks to get them restarted again. Well, okay. If that's what happened, when President Trump does figure it out, he's probably going to get aggressive again. And what we've just seen is $14 of risk premium come out of this oil market because President Trump calmed down. Why would we think this is the last time President Trump is going to uh get uncom? seems to me like there's an awfully good chance that we see another big upward price spike in oil if we get uh another round of this. And that seems extremely likely, especially considering that nobody else, including the folks that read the bomb damage assessments, agree with the the president's view that everything has already been neutralized. He actually said that there would be no need in talks with Iran to even negotiate a new nuclear deal because there was nothing to negotiate. there's no more nuclear risk to worry about because it's all been obliterated. Uh nobody else thinks that that's true. So when President Trump figures out that it's not true, I think he's going to do something that's going to take oil back up. So uh I think it's potentially uh at least if you're in a speculative mood uh a bargain buying opportunity here to get in on this long. Patrick, what's your take on it based on the charts? Well, maximum volatility is definitely what we're seeing and there was a huge risk premium being put into oil and the fears that the escalation was going to draw the US deep into this confrontation and that was very rapidly withdrawn out of the market earlier this week. Uh we now are trading at a very interesting moment. the $6465 level on WTI is uh in my mind a kind of key pivot because if we're on a sustained basis not only below the 50-day moving average but below this retracement zone then the only outcome is crude oil going for a direct retest of April and May lows which are all the way in the 57 and 60 level and the question really is is uh while maybe uh the escalation of the situation isn't isn't that severe. Alternative point is that is oil in that kind of abundance that uh we could see in spite of all of these conditions oil trading right back to its previous lows. My view here is that it it's a buy on dip. Uh I don't think we're going to see at least I'm currently betting that we're not going to see that 57 to 60 zone and that this level will actually hold. Now does that mean I think oil is going to 80 85? Well, I mean, a lot of things would have to start kind of uh working in oil's favor for that kind of move, but a bounce back to $70 and us re-engage a new trade range where we spent September through January trading uh in in a kind of like $68 to $72 range. I totally think we can get up there and see a new elevated level uh for crude. So, I'm buying here looking for that kind of a bounce up to that zone. Eric, on page five, I have that gold chart. It continues to uh consolidate, but well above that 50-day moving average. Uh are you still bullish here? Well, Patrick, it makes perfect sense that we've had this deep uh dip or pullback or correction or whatever you want to call it, this 100 bucks down in gold price makes perfect sense for the same reasons that oil is selling off hard. Uh, you know, the world has been told now that nuclear holocaust was just diverted. Everything is fine. Iran nuclear facilities have all been destroyed. Uh, there's no more tension or grief between the US and Iran. Okay. Um, I think when President Trump figures out that the nuclear facilities were not really destroyed, that's all going to change. But for now, it makes perfect sense that if the the theme that's driving other markets is a perception that this is all blown over. You know, we saw uh 14 bucks come out of oil. We saw 100 bucks come out of gold. I think we're going to see both of them go back up. So, buying both of those dips makes perfect sense. Uh so far, the low on gold intraday has been 3308 3308 on the August contract. I know that number all too well because I only missed it by almost exactly five bucks on my resting limit order below the market which didn't get filled today. I think I still have a shot though. The slow stochastics are only just starting to touch the oversold uh range. The RSI is still mid-range. So, I think there's definitely room for another small wave down here. Maybe to oh, I don't know, you know, a high 32 something, 3290, 3293 in there somewhere. Maybe where I think the the bottom is, I'm still going to buy just above 3,300 on this dip if I can get it. And one way or another, I'll buy this dip. If it turns out I already missed the low, I'll chase it if I have to uh in order to get a seat at this table. Yeah, Eric, I'm in the buy on dip camp as well. Uh, at this moment, we have US dollar weakness, which typically is a tailwind for for gold that is priced in US dollars. And at the same time, almost all these pullbacks have held above its moving averages, held above fib zones, making it a very traditional consolidation. Now, at any one point, gold could start a bigger correction, but there's no reason at this moment from a price action perspective to believe that that has begun. And therefore, I'm in your camp that dips should be bought and there's room for this still to break out. Uh the first wave measured move is towards that 36 to 3700 if it does break out. So, we're watching whether this important 3,300 pivot ends up uh holding the line here. So, Eric, let's talk uranium. On page six, I have that spot physical uranium trust and uh prices have uh clearly been improving. What are your thoughts here, Patrick? The spot price of uranium, I've said many times, is the key. Once that gets moving, everything else will follow. And that's exactly what's happening. Uh spot uranium is $7750 now, almost at par with $80 term price of uranium, the contract price for long-term contracting of uranium, which is where all the volume happens in the uranium market. Now, unfortunately, the gap filling pullback on uranium miners that I was hoping for is probably much less likely to happen at this point. Seems like it's kind of game on for this bull market. And now that spot uranium is moving to the upside, uh it seems like it's uh everything we can just to hold our horses. So, I'm still hoping that from a seasonality perspective, you know, this market shouldn't really heat up until September. I'm still waiting for a nice big dip to buy, but if we don't get one by mid August and I haven't gotten my full allocation on a dip, then I'll buy at whatever price I have to in order to hit my max leverage target before we get to Labor Day. By which I mean American Labor Day, 1st of September. Uh I think it's around September that seasonality and right after the WNA conference, which I think this year is the first week of September. uh right after that conference is when the buyers usually really start buying and I definitely want to be at my max leverage when that happens. Well, Eric, of course, uh buying dips is always better than buying rips. But uh I think the bigger thing that I want to highlight is the fact that we had a very clear and pronounced bare market in uranium where from January of 2024 when it peaked uh we basically spent 15 months in a very clear distribution cycle that saw uranium virtually lose 50% of its value based on the that sprop physical uranium trust. Now, uh, that sequence of lower highs and lower lows in that downwards channel has finally been broken, and we've now spent over, uh, a month and a half in a bull trend above the 50-day moving average. This is the very distinctly different price action than we've seen in the year prior. And so, to me, there's a lot of evidence that uranium has obviously entered a new bull phase. Uh, buying dips is clearly the more tactical way of approaching it. Uh but I do believe that these are still the very beginning phases of a bull run that could last the rest of the year and even a chunk of next year. And so uh continuing to watch whether uranium uh can build on this is 100% on my watch list. Patrick, before we close, let's hit that 10-year Treasury yield. What are the charts telling you? That 10-year Treasury yield off of its May high near 460 has now dropped down to 428. So, uh, we're we're, uh, seeing, uh, yields slightly weakening on the downside, uh, rolling over. The big question, are bonds, uh, bottoming, and are we going to see a rip in the bond markets, or is this just a retracement from a interest rate market that is simply not ready to make higher yields at these levels? I'm uh, relatively more neutral on the 10 and the 30-year bond at this moment. there's plenty of room for them to be bottoming. Uh you know, David Rosenberg was talking about the idea that there's a very much asymmetry in owning these treasuries uh down along these levels. Uh but the question is is that have we really seen the beginning of this trend move and that is still very premature to make that call. But where I have higher conviction continues to be on page eight when I'm looking at that three month silver futures particularly I'm going out to December of 20126 18 months forward and this is uh where I find it really interesting because there's so many dynamics uh that could potentially have the Fed be forced to cut more interest rates than are currently being priced in. It could be uh the announcement of of a m much more uh dovish Fed chairman next year. It could be the um inflation continues to be benign or or a recession rears its ugly head. Whichever the catalyst to me uh I don't see much downside risk on this and I see obviously all sorts of of surprise risks that could actually have this thing rocket 100 basis points. continue to still really like this as a new trading opportunity. Folks, if you enjoy Patrick's chart decks, you can get them every single day of the week with a free trial of BigPictur Trading. The details are on the last pages of the slide deck or just go to bigpicturetrading.com. That concludes this edition of Macrovoices. Be sure to tune in each week to hear feature interviews with the brightest minds in finance and macroeconomics. Macrovoices is made possible by sponsorship from bigpicturrading.com, the internet's premier source of online education for traders. Please visit bigpicturetrading.com for more information. Please register your free account at macrovoices.com. 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