US Equities: The S&P 500 remains in a strong uptrend with thin breadth, overbought RSI, and potential for a 5% pullback amid seasonality and upcoming earnings/events.
US Dollar: Bearish trend persists with lower lows and highs; a countertrend rally is overdue, but longer-term targets suggest further weakness toward DXY 89.
Crude Oil: Flat price lacks a clear catalyst and remains range-bound, while time-spread/backwardation trades continue to offer opportunity; energy equities could strengthen despite oil’s lull.
Gold: Price action is coiling in a large triangle; base case is an upside breakout toward 3,500–3,700, with 3,300 as a key downside level to watch.
Uranium: Strong bullish conviction with miners and ETFs (e.g., URA) trending higher, SPUT lagging but potentially turning; term-market RFPs emerging ahead of the WNA conference signal a potential next leg up.
Copper: New highs confirm a durable long-term bull; policy-driven volatility is viewed as buy-the-dip, though LME and COMEX price divergence bears watching.
Rates: 10-year yields are coiling and 30-year yields hover near multi-decade highs; an upside breakout in yields could pressure equities and influence policy rhetoric.
Transcript
[Music] This is Macrovoices, the free weekly financial podcast targeting professional finance, high- netw worth individuals, family offices, and other sophisticated investors. Macrovoices is all about the brightest minds in the world of finance and macroeconomics telling it like it is. Bullish or bearish, no holds barred. Now, here are your hosts, Eric Townsend and Patrick Serezna. >> Eric, it was great to have Pipa back on the show. Now, let's get to that chart deck. Listeners, you're going to find the download link for the postgame chart deck in your research roundup email. If you don't have a research roundup email, it means that you have not yet registered at macrovoices.com. Just go to our homepage, macrovoice.com, and click on the red button over Pipa's picture saying looking for the downloads. Patrick, let's kick it off with the S&P 500. What are the charts telling you this week, >> Eric? The bulls have relentlessly been in command of this trend, being driven by a handful of those core MAG stocks that have been driving this just by their market cap waiting. The breath of the market has been relatively thin, but that hasn't mattered to the market cap weighted indicy. We have a market that continues to press fresh new highs and the primary trend higher highs higher lows above all moving averages continues. Now we are at quite an extreme level. For instance, we have not seen the RSI at such an overbought level since uh last summer of 2024 right before the um Japanese carry trade started to unwind. At the same time, we're almost 300 S&P points above the 50-day moving average. And just the amount of days that we have seen sustained above a 20 period moving average is unprecedented. We don't see this very often. That doesn't mean that it's go got to end today, but we are definitely got the characteristics of a eighth ninth inning of a of this advance. Now that doesn't mean that there has to be a scary market correction on the other side. you know, where the market has to drop 10 to 20%. It uh often on the first sell-off is a typical 5% correction. And by the fact that we're just 300 points above the 50-day, that would basically be a bullish retest of the 50-day moving average if we just got a 5% correction. And so the bulls have a lot of leeway here that will probably keep these markets going through a bigger topping formation or along their highs uh deep into August. And this is in line with the fact that a lot of voltargeting funds as the uh realized volatility now is about to continue to contract. We'll be doing structural buying next week. uh some of the analysts are and quants are anticipating as much as $40 billion net of buying uh coming into the market. The bottom line is that that should keep this market at elevated levels even if we do have one of these quick two to 300 S&P point corrections. The bigger question is when would we go through a a deeper more meaningful pullback? Well, we are from a seasonality perspective getting into a period that is typically weak. As we get into the latter part of August into September, October are periods where flows, pivot, and distribution can come. So, right now going into this uh last week of July, especially we have some major earnings coming out on some of the mag sevens next week. We have a tariff deadline on on Friday as well as jobs numbers. So, a lot of things that could uh you know bring some volatility next week, but probably uh we're going to see things remain relatively kind of stable and quiet and in this prevailing trend at least probably towards the next week's episode. So, let's uh let's see how it plays out right now. Uh nothing ominous unless of course uh a curveball is thrown to the markets. Now, Eric, let's move on and uh talk about this US dollar. What are your thoughts here, >> Patrick? Overall, I'm still structurally bearish on the US dollar. I said last week that I thought a counter trend rally was overdue, but then I went on to say I had a feeling it wasn't going to be on that swing, but maybe one or two more down swings before we see that countertrend move develop. Well, sure enough, the formative upside move we discussed last week failed, reinforcing my bearish trend view. But I'm still on the watch for signs of that counter trend rally. My target on the downside structurally is 89 on the Dixie. There's no way we're going to get all the way to 89 from here without at least one meaningful and probably at least two meaningful counter trend rallies along the way. The first of those is already overdue. So that's what I'm on the lookout for. Well, Eric, the bears are decisively still in control. The lower lows and lower highs uh persist in a downwards channel. when we got into a oversold state at the end of June, it started a bounce, but the bounce had very weak uh price action and even when it temporarily accelerated toward that 50-day moving average, immediately rejected and traded right back down to lows. That's active distribution. This is definitive price action that is uh pushing the dollar weakness and narrative. zero evidence that the bulls have pivoted at some stage when such a crowded trade and such a consensus trade is in play. There's always room for a short squeeze, but we want to see technically that some sort of buying has started that could be triggering that and the fact that uh that July rally was as weak as it was. We have to assume that the bears remain in control. Double bottom retest is the first base case. But if it breaks to a lower low, the measured target is down to 95 handle on the Dixie. Yes, in the bigger picture when we step back, look at a weekly chart and look at back that at 2021 and even back in 2018 that US dollar had major lows in that 8990 level that you referenced. That could be a very realistic target, but that would probably be a target for 2026. the likelihood that this year houses such a dramatic dollar move. While it's possible, I don't think uh one should be uh let's say playing short-term options like 2 3 months out with that kind of a lower target. I think you need to have a more time on a that kind of a trade to see through that kind of a lower target. Will we see a squeeze at some point this moment? Uh the one thing that I'd want to see is that a support line holds. we quick rally back to that 50-day moving average or something showing that somebody is pivoting to the buy side and driving the flows the other way. There's zero evidence of that up till now. All right, Eric, let's touch on oil. Patrick, I don't see a directional trade that's really appealing here. What I do have on is the time spread trade long Z5 short M6. uh that has continued to perform well despite the big uh retraction in weak flat price. I've actually seen further positive performance on the spread trade. The front month the the front spread now which is the August September spread is still wider than a dollar. My nearest exposure would be four months later on the December to January uh contract. That's only at 22 cents now. I wouldn't expect it to be much wider than that four months out. But by the time the December contract is nearing expiry in mid November, uh you know, driving season will be behind us. It'll be shoulder season. That's going to mean smaller backwardation coming into expiry. We're not going to have the dollar and a half that we've had for the last few months. But I think we're still going to be much closer to the current $1 level. Maybe well above 50 cents, closer to let's say probably at least 75 cents at Expir as opposed to 22 cents. Now, of course, lots could change. on that. But that to me is a much more compelling trade than trying to take a directional view on the flat price. Well, in my mind, oil's in a price action purgatory. It doesn't really have a catalyst to really trade back down to the $55 level or lower where it was trading back in April and May. But at the same time, no immediate catalyst to drive mid70s oil prices. And so, we're stuck in this range. uh I don't anticipate any big volatility here. Uh but what's interesting is that those equity uh energy equities are getting a little bit of attention and the question here is is that in spite of oil's kind of uh lull price action will we see the energy equities pick up here and start to trend and that's uh something that's uh I'm watching uh closely at this stage. All right, Eric, uh let's talk gold. Well, last week we were lurking around close to the bottom of the vertical range in the symmetrical triangle pattern that's formed here. It's about a $180 vertical range. Well, that was last week. Now, we're bouncing off a perfect test of the top trend line in that symmetrical triangle at 3450. I I still think that the most likely resolution of this triangle will be to the upside and that will probably begin an accelerated uh upside rally towards at least 3,700. But there's plenty of room to go down and retest the bottom trend line which is now at about 3,300 on reactions to rumors of a 15% US European Union tariff deal which were circulating on Wednesday. probably the reason that gold took a took it on the the nose on Wednesday morning. Uh how long does it take for that to blow over? We'll see. But I think it will blow over. Eventually the upside momentum will uh be back as that tariff news blows over and I expect the rally to resume then towards new all-time highs above 3500 and pressing toward 3700. Uh the thing to watch for would be a decisive close well below 3,300 and staying there for several days. That would be the sign that uh I I read the market wrong and it's not playing out the way I thought. Uh as of now though, until we see a close below 3,300, everything looks bullish to me. Well, to me, there's one big horizontal triangle pattern developing connecting those uh May and June lows along with the April and June highs. Uh that is coiling this up in a range. Now, we had uh the earlier this week a decisive attempt to break out on the upside of gold and here we are a couple days giving a good chunk of it back. Now, will the bulls be able to be buy this dip and get it back above 3,400 is the puzzle to solve. Overall, the bulls have been in control up until now. And so to come up with a bare scenario, I'd want to first see some sort of bearish price action uh and the real test will be right now with this type of a two-day drop in in uh gold that we're seeing here like it was right now uh up to this point of recording about a $90 pullback off the high. Will it get bought on dip? That would demonstrate that the accumulation cycle is is strong to me. What would be the first deterioration in the price action would be a breakdown below the 50-day moving average and more importantly re entirely reversing the breakout attempt that we had here on the upside of gold. If we saw that, then that really means that the gold bulls simply are not able to sh pivot the the flows in the favor of a new bull trend and then we'd have to go back to some sort of trade range style expectations for gold in this type of environment. Now, let's talk uranium because there's a story of uranium companies and the uranium price. Uh let's let's uh dive a little bit deeper into this. Well, Patrick, after more than doubling since their April lows, the URRA ETFs, stochastics, and RSI peaked out a few weeks ago, finally rolled over, and then we saw a swing trade lower of only 6% down after more than 100% up on the rally that led up to it. So, a very asymmetric uh move there. Then what's happened in the last few weeks is we rallied again back up to again extreme overbought levels on the slow stochastics and RSI and it's just rolled over again. Well, okay, if recent history is a guide, what we should expect is only a very modest dip of at most 5% from here and then a resumption of the uptrend. So that next swing low on the stochastics and RSI should come in the next week or so. and I'll probably uh go the rest of the way in on my target allocation to the long trade on uranium and uranium miners rather than waiting out. I had been planning to scale in and try to get there by August 15th. It feels to me like this market is just ready to rip. And uh I don't want to miss it. So if we get even just a 5% dip, I'll probably use that opportunity to put the rest of my position on. And hey, you know what? If uh it turns out that we end up uh getting in late August into the early part of September, we get a more pronounced correction after all, then okay, I'll just upsize and uh allocate even more to the upside because my longer term conviction about the the bullish story here really couldn't be stronger. you'd need to have another Fukushimaized nuclear accident or a nuclear war uh breaking out or something that big to throw off the nuclear renaissance and the fuel buying hasn't even begun yet. So the there's just tremendous upside here. This story is only just beginning. It would take a big exogenous uh change factor in order to change my bullish view longer term. So, and finally, the the other really good news is after just really going more than half the year with almost no contracting going on in the term market for uranium, little bit of spot training, but the more important market is the term market. There's been less than than 25% of the typical annual uh volume has occurred entirely yearto date in this market. For some reason, the buyers are waiting now, hoping for lower prices. I don't know what's going on, but they haven't even started buying yet. Finally, in the last two weeks, there are three different RFPs out in the market. There are contracting negotiations in the term market. That's a really big sign we've been waiting for. Now, of course, the really, really big sign is if there are announcements that the term price has moved up substantially because some of those deals have closed. Okay, we don't get a term price reported only once a month. This is a very opaque market. Uh, I wish it didn't work that way. So, it really remains to be seen what is going to happen, but that would be the catalyst for the next big upside price move. Bottom line, it's time to get your seat at the table for the coming bull market if you don't already have it in uranium. Get that on before the WNA conference in early September if you haven't done so already. Yeah, Eric, the relentless rise of uranium prices using like URA as an example just uh they've just been plugging away higher highs, old dips being bought. But what's interesting is that we haven't yet seen uranium prices make that kind of pivot. So when we're talking U308 still down at 7240 and uh when we look at things like the spat physical uranium trust like the chart we have here they are still pulled back. We haven't seen a decisive return to levels we saw earlier in 2024. With that said this is a typical dip that uh when it retraces about half of its prior gains usually gets bought. be very very interesting to see whether this is where the spat physical really gets going on the upside and this dip gets bought that kind of follow through will be interesting. Now Eric, there's been obviously this big squeeze in copper higher highs plugging to a fresh new 52- week high. What are your thoughts? Well, Patrick, new highs above the Trump 50% tariff panic spike really confirm what I said last week, which is that the long-term trend is up and strong. Remember, I said there was an argument to short that market because it had obviously reacted kind of in a panic reaction to President Trump. I thought there was an argument for why it went down and I said, I'm not going to be tempted to lose my longer term uh long position by getting cute trying to trade in and out of the market. the uptrend longer term is just too strong. That's being borne out by this week's tape action with new highs above the previous panic high implying that there's more to this move than just a reaction to President Trump's 50% tariff threats. Bottom line, as far as I'm concerned on copper, there's still plenty of room for more turbulence from further policy action. We don't know what Trump and Bessant have planned next. But as a trader, my reaction to that, whatever crazy V swings they send our way, it's a buy the dip opportunity because the long-term bull argument for copper really couldn't be stronger. The only observation I'd want to make here, Eric, though, is that while the Comx copper price is up at 587 and punching that 52- week high, uh, we really haven't seen similar style price action on the LME. Right? So when you look in London, you're looking at global copper prices, uh they're still uh trading along those April and uh June highs. And so this really has been obviously a tariff driven jump. The question is how long can the two diverge and are we just one tariff announcement away from this uh um converging uh after such a divergent move between the two prices. Uh, at this stage, I don't really want to trade uh this because it's really going to be almost solely news-driven for the next major move. Patrick, before we close, let's hit that 10-year Treasury note chart. So, Eric, when looking at the 10-year US Treasury yield, it looks like the uh interest rate markets have been relatively stable. In fact, even on the shorter end, like when look at the stir mark like the short-term sofa futures, everything is coiling up uh in uh ranges that have been established over the last 2 3 months. Here on the 10-year, you can see this wedge comes off of the January high all the way down to its March low. So, this has been a six-month consolidation of interest rates in a tight range. And pretty much this 440 level where we're trading is pretty much uh the dead center of that trade range. Which way will we see interest rates move? It will certainly spur some uh market reactions if we get things going. But where the interest really is on page nine when I have the 30-year US Treasury yield and what you can observe is that that one continues to trade along multi-year highs right near 5%. the highs uh back in 2023 came in around 510 and um the January high here came in at 5% and again that 510 level here was tested again in May and so we have a very close to a multi-deade level that could be broken on the upside in the 30-year and the big question you know when we're asking what could spur some anxiety in the equity markets it almost certainly would be a breakout out in yields uh which would certainly get the Trump and uh and maybe the FOMC talking about uh the current interest rate trends. Folks, if you enjoy Patrick's chart decks, you can get them every single day of the week with a free trial of BigPictur Trading. The details are on the last pages of the slide deck or just go to bigpicturetrading.com. That concludes this edition of Macrovoices. Be sure to tune in each week to hear feature interviews with the brightest minds in finance and macroeconomics. Macrovoices is made possible by sponsorship from bigpicturetrading.com, the internet's premier source of online education for traders. Please visit bigpicturertrading.com for more information. Please register your free account at macrovoices.com. Once registered, you'll receive our free weekly research roundup email containing links to supporting documents from our featured guests and the very best free financial content our volunteer research team could find on the internet each week. You'll also gain access to our free listener discussion forums and research library. And the more registered users we have, the more we'll be able to recruit high-profile feature interview guests for future programs. 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Talking Charts – MacroVoices #489
Summary
Transcript
[Music] This is Macrovoices, the free weekly financial podcast targeting professional finance, high- netw worth individuals, family offices, and other sophisticated investors. Macrovoices is all about the brightest minds in the world of finance and macroeconomics telling it like it is. Bullish or bearish, no holds barred. Now, here are your hosts, Eric Townsend and Patrick Serezna. >> Eric, it was great to have Pipa back on the show. Now, let's get to that chart deck. Listeners, you're going to find the download link for the postgame chart deck in your research roundup email. If you don't have a research roundup email, it means that you have not yet registered at macrovoices.com. Just go to our homepage, macrovoice.com, and click on the red button over Pipa's picture saying looking for the downloads. Patrick, let's kick it off with the S&P 500. What are the charts telling you this week, >> Eric? The bulls have relentlessly been in command of this trend, being driven by a handful of those core MAG stocks that have been driving this just by their market cap waiting. The breath of the market has been relatively thin, but that hasn't mattered to the market cap weighted indicy. We have a market that continues to press fresh new highs and the primary trend higher highs higher lows above all moving averages continues. Now we are at quite an extreme level. For instance, we have not seen the RSI at such an overbought level since uh last summer of 2024 right before the um Japanese carry trade started to unwind. At the same time, we're almost 300 S&P points above the 50-day moving average. And just the amount of days that we have seen sustained above a 20 period moving average is unprecedented. We don't see this very often. That doesn't mean that it's go got to end today, but we are definitely got the characteristics of a eighth ninth inning of a of this advance. Now that doesn't mean that there has to be a scary market correction on the other side. you know, where the market has to drop 10 to 20%. It uh often on the first sell-off is a typical 5% correction. And by the fact that we're just 300 points above the 50-day, that would basically be a bullish retest of the 50-day moving average if we just got a 5% correction. And so the bulls have a lot of leeway here that will probably keep these markets going through a bigger topping formation or along their highs uh deep into August. And this is in line with the fact that a lot of voltargeting funds as the uh realized volatility now is about to continue to contract. We'll be doing structural buying next week. uh some of the analysts are and quants are anticipating as much as $40 billion net of buying uh coming into the market. The bottom line is that that should keep this market at elevated levels even if we do have one of these quick two to 300 S&P point corrections. The bigger question is when would we go through a a deeper more meaningful pullback? Well, we are from a seasonality perspective getting into a period that is typically weak. As we get into the latter part of August into September, October are periods where flows, pivot, and distribution can come. So, right now going into this uh last week of July, especially we have some major earnings coming out on some of the mag sevens next week. We have a tariff deadline on on Friday as well as jobs numbers. So, a lot of things that could uh you know bring some volatility next week, but probably uh we're going to see things remain relatively kind of stable and quiet and in this prevailing trend at least probably towards the next week's episode. So, let's uh let's see how it plays out right now. Uh nothing ominous unless of course uh a curveball is thrown to the markets. Now, Eric, let's move on and uh talk about this US dollar. What are your thoughts here, >> Patrick? Overall, I'm still structurally bearish on the US dollar. I said last week that I thought a counter trend rally was overdue, but then I went on to say I had a feeling it wasn't going to be on that swing, but maybe one or two more down swings before we see that countertrend move develop. Well, sure enough, the formative upside move we discussed last week failed, reinforcing my bearish trend view. But I'm still on the watch for signs of that counter trend rally. My target on the downside structurally is 89 on the Dixie. There's no way we're going to get all the way to 89 from here without at least one meaningful and probably at least two meaningful counter trend rallies along the way. The first of those is already overdue. So that's what I'm on the lookout for. Well, Eric, the bears are decisively still in control. The lower lows and lower highs uh persist in a downwards channel. when we got into a oversold state at the end of June, it started a bounce, but the bounce had very weak uh price action and even when it temporarily accelerated toward that 50-day moving average, immediately rejected and traded right back down to lows. That's active distribution. This is definitive price action that is uh pushing the dollar weakness and narrative. zero evidence that the bulls have pivoted at some stage when such a crowded trade and such a consensus trade is in play. There's always room for a short squeeze, but we want to see technically that some sort of buying has started that could be triggering that and the fact that uh that July rally was as weak as it was. We have to assume that the bears remain in control. Double bottom retest is the first base case. But if it breaks to a lower low, the measured target is down to 95 handle on the Dixie. Yes, in the bigger picture when we step back, look at a weekly chart and look at back that at 2021 and even back in 2018 that US dollar had major lows in that 8990 level that you referenced. That could be a very realistic target, but that would probably be a target for 2026. the likelihood that this year houses such a dramatic dollar move. While it's possible, I don't think uh one should be uh let's say playing short-term options like 2 3 months out with that kind of a lower target. I think you need to have a more time on a that kind of a trade to see through that kind of a lower target. Will we see a squeeze at some point this moment? Uh the one thing that I'd want to see is that a support line holds. we quick rally back to that 50-day moving average or something showing that somebody is pivoting to the buy side and driving the flows the other way. There's zero evidence of that up till now. All right, Eric, let's touch on oil. Patrick, I don't see a directional trade that's really appealing here. What I do have on is the time spread trade long Z5 short M6. uh that has continued to perform well despite the big uh retraction in weak flat price. I've actually seen further positive performance on the spread trade. The front month the the front spread now which is the August September spread is still wider than a dollar. My nearest exposure would be four months later on the December to January uh contract. That's only at 22 cents now. I wouldn't expect it to be much wider than that four months out. But by the time the December contract is nearing expiry in mid November, uh you know, driving season will be behind us. It'll be shoulder season. That's going to mean smaller backwardation coming into expiry. We're not going to have the dollar and a half that we've had for the last few months. But I think we're still going to be much closer to the current $1 level. Maybe well above 50 cents, closer to let's say probably at least 75 cents at Expir as opposed to 22 cents. Now, of course, lots could change. on that. But that to me is a much more compelling trade than trying to take a directional view on the flat price. Well, in my mind, oil's in a price action purgatory. It doesn't really have a catalyst to really trade back down to the $55 level or lower where it was trading back in April and May. But at the same time, no immediate catalyst to drive mid70s oil prices. And so, we're stuck in this range. uh I don't anticipate any big volatility here. Uh but what's interesting is that those equity uh energy equities are getting a little bit of attention and the question here is is that in spite of oil's kind of uh lull price action will we see the energy equities pick up here and start to trend and that's uh something that's uh I'm watching uh closely at this stage. All right, Eric, uh let's talk gold. Well, last week we were lurking around close to the bottom of the vertical range in the symmetrical triangle pattern that's formed here. It's about a $180 vertical range. Well, that was last week. Now, we're bouncing off a perfect test of the top trend line in that symmetrical triangle at 3450. I I still think that the most likely resolution of this triangle will be to the upside and that will probably begin an accelerated uh upside rally towards at least 3,700. But there's plenty of room to go down and retest the bottom trend line which is now at about 3,300 on reactions to rumors of a 15% US European Union tariff deal which were circulating on Wednesday. probably the reason that gold took a took it on the the nose on Wednesday morning. Uh how long does it take for that to blow over? We'll see. But I think it will blow over. Eventually the upside momentum will uh be back as that tariff news blows over and I expect the rally to resume then towards new all-time highs above 3500 and pressing toward 3700. Uh the thing to watch for would be a decisive close well below 3,300 and staying there for several days. That would be the sign that uh I I read the market wrong and it's not playing out the way I thought. Uh as of now though, until we see a close below 3,300, everything looks bullish to me. Well, to me, there's one big horizontal triangle pattern developing connecting those uh May and June lows along with the April and June highs. Uh that is coiling this up in a range. Now, we had uh the earlier this week a decisive attempt to break out on the upside of gold and here we are a couple days giving a good chunk of it back. Now, will the bulls be able to be buy this dip and get it back above 3,400 is the puzzle to solve. Overall, the bulls have been in control up until now. And so to come up with a bare scenario, I'd want to first see some sort of bearish price action uh and the real test will be right now with this type of a two-day drop in in uh gold that we're seeing here like it was right now uh up to this point of recording about a $90 pullback off the high. Will it get bought on dip? That would demonstrate that the accumulation cycle is is strong to me. What would be the first deterioration in the price action would be a breakdown below the 50-day moving average and more importantly re entirely reversing the breakout attempt that we had here on the upside of gold. If we saw that, then that really means that the gold bulls simply are not able to sh pivot the the flows in the favor of a new bull trend and then we'd have to go back to some sort of trade range style expectations for gold in this type of environment. Now, let's talk uranium because there's a story of uranium companies and the uranium price. Uh let's let's uh dive a little bit deeper into this. Well, Patrick, after more than doubling since their April lows, the URRA ETFs, stochastics, and RSI peaked out a few weeks ago, finally rolled over, and then we saw a swing trade lower of only 6% down after more than 100% up on the rally that led up to it. So, a very asymmetric uh move there. Then what's happened in the last few weeks is we rallied again back up to again extreme overbought levels on the slow stochastics and RSI and it's just rolled over again. Well, okay, if recent history is a guide, what we should expect is only a very modest dip of at most 5% from here and then a resumption of the uptrend. So that next swing low on the stochastics and RSI should come in the next week or so. and I'll probably uh go the rest of the way in on my target allocation to the long trade on uranium and uranium miners rather than waiting out. I had been planning to scale in and try to get there by August 15th. It feels to me like this market is just ready to rip. And uh I don't want to miss it. So if we get even just a 5% dip, I'll probably use that opportunity to put the rest of my position on. And hey, you know what? If uh it turns out that we end up uh getting in late August into the early part of September, we get a more pronounced correction after all, then okay, I'll just upsize and uh allocate even more to the upside because my longer term conviction about the the bullish story here really couldn't be stronger. you'd need to have another Fukushimaized nuclear accident or a nuclear war uh breaking out or something that big to throw off the nuclear renaissance and the fuel buying hasn't even begun yet. So the there's just tremendous upside here. This story is only just beginning. It would take a big exogenous uh change factor in order to change my bullish view longer term. So, and finally, the the other really good news is after just really going more than half the year with almost no contracting going on in the term market for uranium, little bit of spot training, but the more important market is the term market. There's been less than than 25% of the typical annual uh volume has occurred entirely yearto date in this market. For some reason, the buyers are waiting now, hoping for lower prices. I don't know what's going on, but they haven't even started buying yet. Finally, in the last two weeks, there are three different RFPs out in the market. There are contracting negotiations in the term market. That's a really big sign we've been waiting for. Now, of course, the really, really big sign is if there are announcements that the term price has moved up substantially because some of those deals have closed. Okay, we don't get a term price reported only once a month. This is a very opaque market. Uh, I wish it didn't work that way. So, it really remains to be seen what is going to happen, but that would be the catalyst for the next big upside price move. Bottom line, it's time to get your seat at the table for the coming bull market if you don't already have it in uranium. Get that on before the WNA conference in early September if you haven't done so already. Yeah, Eric, the relentless rise of uranium prices using like URA as an example just uh they've just been plugging away higher highs, old dips being bought. But what's interesting is that we haven't yet seen uranium prices make that kind of pivot. So when we're talking U308 still down at 7240 and uh when we look at things like the spat physical uranium trust like the chart we have here they are still pulled back. We haven't seen a decisive return to levels we saw earlier in 2024. With that said this is a typical dip that uh when it retraces about half of its prior gains usually gets bought. be very very interesting to see whether this is where the spat physical really gets going on the upside and this dip gets bought that kind of follow through will be interesting. Now Eric, there's been obviously this big squeeze in copper higher highs plugging to a fresh new 52- week high. What are your thoughts? Well, Patrick, new highs above the Trump 50% tariff panic spike really confirm what I said last week, which is that the long-term trend is up and strong. Remember, I said there was an argument to short that market because it had obviously reacted kind of in a panic reaction to President Trump. I thought there was an argument for why it went down and I said, I'm not going to be tempted to lose my longer term uh long position by getting cute trying to trade in and out of the market. the uptrend longer term is just too strong. That's being borne out by this week's tape action with new highs above the previous panic high implying that there's more to this move than just a reaction to President Trump's 50% tariff threats. Bottom line, as far as I'm concerned on copper, there's still plenty of room for more turbulence from further policy action. We don't know what Trump and Bessant have planned next. But as a trader, my reaction to that, whatever crazy V swings they send our way, it's a buy the dip opportunity because the long-term bull argument for copper really couldn't be stronger. The only observation I'd want to make here, Eric, though, is that while the Comx copper price is up at 587 and punching that 52- week high, uh, we really haven't seen similar style price action on the LME. Right? So when you look in London, you're looking at global copper prices, uh they're still uh trading along those April and uh June highs. And so this really has been obviously a tariff driven jump. The question is how long can the two diverge and are we just one tariff announcement away from this uh um converging uh after such a divergent move between the two prices. Uh, at this stage, I don't really want to trade uh this because it's really going to be almost solely news-driven for the next major move. Patrick, before we close, let's hit that 10-year Treasury note chart. So, Eric, when looking at the 10-year US Treasury yield, it looks like the uh interest rate markets have been relatively stable. In fact, even on the shorter end, like when look at the stir mark like the short-term sofa futures, everything is coiling up uh in uh ranges that have been established over the last 2 3 months. Here on the 10-year, you can see this wedge comes off of the January high all the way down to its March low. So, this has been a six-month consolidation of interest rates in a tight range. And pretty much this 440 level where we're trading is pretty much uh the dead center of that trade range. Which way will we see interest rates move? It will certainly spur some uh market reactions if we get things going. But where the interest really is on page nine when I have the 30-year US Treasury yield and what you can observe is that that one continues to trade along multi-year highs right near 5%. the highs uh back in 2023 came in around 510 and um the January high here came in at 5% and again that 510 level here was tested again in May and so we have a very close to a multi-deade level that could be broken on the upside in the 30-year and the big question you know when we're asking what could spur some anxiety in the equity markets it almost certainly would be a breakout out in yields uh which would certainly get the Trump and uh and maybe the FOMC talking about uh the current interest rate trends. Folks, if you enjoy Patrick's chart decks, you can get them every single day of the week with a free trial of BigPictur Trading. 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