The Gold & Silver Market Just BROKE | Andy Schectman
Summary
Precious Metals Thesis: The guest argues gold and silver are finally achieving real price discovery as unprecedented physical deliveries overwhelm paper suppression on COMEX/LBMA.
Supply/Demand Dynamics: Elevated margin requirements, forced liquidations, and refinery hedging constraints create tightness, while large informed buyers consistently stand for delivery.
Policy Tailwinds: The US labeling silver as a critical mineral, proposing a price floor, and considering a strategic stockpile could incentivize domestic mining and support higher prices.
De-dollarization: Global flows are shifting from Treasuries to gold as trust in the dollar wanes, with commodities increasingly replacing Treasuries as reserves.
China/BRICS Infrastructure: China’s digital yuan convertibility to gold, expansion of Shanghai/Hong Kong exchange capacity, and mBridge/SIPs with Saudi participation bolster non-dollar settlement anchored by gold.
Macro Outlook: The move is not a bubble in the guest’s view; retail participation remains minimal, suggesting room to run despite potential corrections.
Institutional Signals: References to Goldman Sachs boosting gold targets and Morgan Stanley’s CIO advocating gold highlight growing institutional acceptance, though no specific stock picks were made.
Transcript
Hello and welcome back to Soore Financially here from the floor of the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference. My name is Kai Hoffman. I'm the Edj Mining guy over on X and of course your host of this channel and I'm looking forward to bringing back Andy Sheckchman. Andy, this is a tradition now. It's great to have you here in Vancouver. Thanks so much for joining me. >> Yeah, you know, I'm not just saying this, Kai. You're one of the best guys in the industry. One of the nicest guys I've met in 35 years. It's a pleasure to be here, brother. >> Tremendously appreciate that, Andy. Thank you so much. >> It's true. It's well earned, too. You're you're doing a great job. >> I love our conversations. tremendously enjoy them. Uh, lots to learn and lots to talk about again today. It's been a while since we spoke. >> So, gold $5,000, silver $103. >> What is that telling you? Let's start high level. >> It's telling me that because of the deliveries, Kai, which never happened, mind you, less than 1% of contracts on ComX or LBMA really ever stood for delivery. Now, it's a lot, huge amounts. um record month after record month after record month after record month for the last 16 months since Trump won the election. It's telling me that gold and silver are finally beginning to slowly find real price disco discovery, which they've never been allowed to to find ever. Going all the way back to the London gold pool, never found price discovery. It's starting to happen because delivery is overwhelming the ability to suppress with paper. That's just the bottom line. Russ Bey said on stage earlier this morning and I didn't see like the whole context but he said we're in a bubble. Okay. What What do you make of that when you hear that? Somebody say that. >> I think that's not true. >> I think that short-term caution can always should always be employed in a market that's moved up this fast. Long-term bullishness can coexist with that. And again, what I think people, even people like Ross, who far be it from me to argue with a man who's had serial serial success like him, but I believe this is different. This is not uh technical analysis. This is not what used to be. The dollar was always the beacon of trust and the um the dollar isn't trusted anymore. Nor are our institutions, nor are nor is the system trusted. And I think gold and silver are reflecting that through delivery. The biggest most well-informed players in the world continue to stand for delivery at a level no one has ever seen. and the retail public wouldn't know a gold coin if it fell on their foot. So, no, this is far from a bubble. If the if this room was filled with people that have never been to a place like this ever, >> then I might agree with that that the retail public has no idea yet. >> Yeah. Like just just looking around here, it feels like a lot of the old punters are back. >> Yeah. I mean, there's more people here for sure. >> Yeah. >> But this isn't mainstream, dude. I mean, I've been doing this for so long and I live in a country club of very well-healed people and maybe five or six of them have bought gold and silver from me. I don't talk about it. They know what I do, but there are very very very successful wealthy people that are just who who believe what Ross is that this is oversold or overbought rather. This is a you know, this is a bubble. Look at the technicals. And I would say none of that matters in an environment that was once manipulated and is now trying to break free from that because the most well-informed traders in the world disagree. And I think that's the public hasn't caught on yet. So no, I think we're a long ways away. But a correction, sure, doesn't change my long-term bullishness view. >> Absolutely. No, it makes makes sense. Like no bull market goes up in a straight line, right? Even a 30% correction is normal in bull markets, which would be painful, but normal, >> right? Um, I'm glad you didn't say that we're sitting or looking at a short squeeze or silver squeeze or anything like that. Any of those hype meme words. Um, like what does the supply and demand look like right now in the back like that? We don't really look at like what does it look like? you know, on the highest level in December, we saw 65 million ounces or so delivered off the Comx or onto the COMX. Who Who's buying that? A mint box of silver eagles is 500 ounces, weighs 42 lb. >> Who's buying 65 million ounces, but it's been between 40 and 60 plus million ounces every darn month for the last 15 16 months? Who's doing that? And you know, you look at the LBMA, David Jensen, one of the best that there is. He says that London has two billion ounces in outstanding spot contracts that are that have standing behind it 140 million ounces. What could possibly go wrong if everyone stands for delivery? 2 billion into a window of 140 million. That's a problem. Uh but when you look at what's happening here in in the United States on a retail market, it's very very very confusing market. um largely because the price is moving up so fast that and it the cost of of maintaining positions is moving up so fast. Let me put you this way. We hedge every ounce we have. We will typically have between 2 and 3 million ounces of silver in our warehouse. To hedge one 5,000 ounce silver comx contract, you need to have over 40,000 bucks in your margin account. On Christmas Day, it was 21,000. And so, not only are the margin rates going higher, which shakes the weak hands off the tree, let's look at December. They raised it twice, twice in two weeks before and after Christmas. So, the day Christmas 21,000, the next day 27,000 in your margin account, now it's over 40. But if you are someone with a bunch of money in your margin account, you have a bunch of contracts, you're trying to take advantage of the silver run, and all of a sudden they raise the margins on you by by 30% on the day after Christmas and if you don't pay, we liquidate. Well, a lot of people are forced to liquidate to cover their margin on the other contracts or whatnot, which selling beget selling beget selling. Now, in 2011, that killed the rally. That's what they did to stop the rally. They raised margin a bunch. This time, what happens? Oh, it's the largest delivery in the history of the of the COMX for the December contract because the people that are standing for delivery Kai, they don't use margin. They don't care. It's a subsidy to them. Thank you very much. They say scoop it up and stand for delivery. So things are changing, but I will tell you like refineries, they're not taking any business right now because it's taking them so long to purify and produce and and they have to hedge their position too. So if they have 30 million in work, it takes weeks to get it fully produced from scrap or junk silver or or dory or whatever to the refined product takes a while. But the price is moving up so fast that they're hedgebook. So if you have 30 million, you have to sell 30 million on COMX. So if the price of your 30 million in inventory drops by, you know, 10 bucks, you're not out enough to put you out of business. So instead, you short the exact same amount. You remain market neutral. problem is silver's moving up so fast and the rate hikes are moving up that they're getting margin called. So the refiners aren't taking anything. The big companies like myself and even the bigger ones who try to hedge if you have 3 million ounces and it costs 41,000 to hedge 5,000 ounces the cost you have to have millions and millions and millions of dollars in your margin account just to maintain a hedge position. It's a crazy environment right now Kai. I've never seen anything like it. But to me, all I look at is the most well-informed traders since I started talking with you was the central banks. And now it's progressed to whoever the hell is doing it here in the United States at a level no one's ever seen before. >> Like how close like it sounds like we're very close to a tipping point here. Like very close. >> It does. Well, I mean, look what the US government did after all of these imports. What do they do? Oh, that's right. Silver's a critical mineral. Oh, that's right. We are now putting a floor underneath it in within the next 90 days. a state sponsored floor underneath all the critical minerals. Why? To incentivize domestic mining. If silver is found in a form called epothermal, like your skin is epidermis near the top, big deposits were found forever ago. So, you got to dig further. Most of it comes from byproduct of copper, lead, and zinc. You got to dig further. Look more. Well, the all-in sustaining cost at that level is probably 40 bucks. So, if you put a price floor high enough underneath it, you will incentivize domestic mining. And now they just came out and are proposing a strategic stockpile. So you can see these things are happening. But the thing is that the mainstream doesn't get this, doesn't talk about it. You got to listen to people, conspiracy theorists like you and I, right? Or are we? Or are we maybe just seeing things a little bit more clearly than the mass? >> I think we got the track record now to prove that. Maybe not. >> We do. Well, you know, on some things anyway. Ask our wives. They may tell you differently. [laughter] >> No, no, absolutely. No, it's interesting cuz you know, there's so much going on. The question is now, of course, we all said, "Oh, at $5,000 gold, $100 silver, the world is burning." All right. Are you do you see the world burning right now? >> I mean, yes and no. I don't think >> is it as bad as you expected it to be when we looked at like like 5 years ago, you said, "Okay, if gold hits this, the world is burning." >> Well, people would always say, "Be careful what you wish for." But really, to me, what it is, instead of the world burning, it's the dollar bills that we call money are burning. the paper currencies have the the sustaining power of a melting ice cube. And so, did gold and silver really go higher or did the dollar that we call money really fall further? And I think that's what it is. When you're creating a trillion dollars in debt every hundred days and a trillion seconds ago was 31,688 years ago. When the world no longer trusts dollars, no longer trusts treasuries, no longer trusts our institutions, judicial system, electoral system, immigration system, all of these systems, then what is the incentive to hold treasuries and or to hold dollars? There's not. And that's why we're seeing ddollarization. That's why we're seeing commodities usurping uh treasuries. That's why we're seeing the dollar lose purchasing power. The world is always burning somewhere, but not to the way that people would frame it at $5,000 gold or $100 silver. >> So, so is this really anti-dollar positioning that we're seeing or is there more to it? It feels like it's difficult to boil it down to one point. >> I think at the highest level it is. It is anti-dollar system. It is the realization that money is gold and silver and everything else is just credit as JP Morgan said but yes I think to a large degree it is at the highest level you know there's a whole school of to Ross Bey's point the counter to it there's a whole school of investment theory called wave theory right of Elliot wave which is about the masses the people here are the pimple on the elephant's ass this is not the masses the masses are out there And Kondrad and Elliot of Wave says it measures the emotions of the public, the the herd from, you know, uh, greed, which turns into exuberance, irrational exuberance, fear, panic, and and and we're long ways away from the fear side of it with pouring into the into metals with the public. We're a long way from that top on the retail level. Um, they haven't even really started to run through the door yet. So up there they see it, they're prepositioning, but I don't think we're anywhere near that blowoff top because the public is really not participating. >> No, I think you're mirroring what Goldman Sachs has been saying as well, like, hey, we're increasing our uh price target for the end of the year to $5,400, for example, for gold just because we're only seeing now private investors start to come in more. >> Well, you know, the difference between us and Goldman Sachs is that we've been saying this forever and they keep changing. It's like a moving target. Yeah. 2,000, no 2,400, no 3,000, no 3100, no, and they keep going higher and higher and higher. At some point, it would just be nice if they said we were wrong. And they have been wrong. And you look at the S&P 500 up under 20% in the midst of the greatest tech boom ever last year, silver up 150, seven times it, gold up almost 80, four times it. Where are the advisors who said, "Don't buy that stuff. It pays no interest." Where are they with the tail between their legs saying, you know, I don't know. You know, you live in Germany. I don't know if you remember Happy Days, the TV show. You remember that? No, I don't. There was a TV show and for your older viewers, they'll remember it. And there was a guy called the FS and he was this leather jacket motorcycle. He was super cool and he he could never say I was wrong. He would say I was R. I was they can't say the they can't say they were wrong and they have been. And the people who have separated themselves from the masses have been right. And this is why I think we all need to trust our gut and our intuition because we're in uncharted waters. And that speaks, I think, um, far more clearly than a financial adviser who might have different interests or objectives than you and and maybe has been married to a school of ideology that that stocks and mutual funds and bonds are the road to retirement. So, they learn more and more about less and less till they know everything about nothing. But what do you know? The CIO, chief investment officer of Morgan Stanley, what did he say? Well, that 60/40 B stock bond platform that we've used for 50 years, it's broken. Sell half your bonds and put it into into gold. So, here at the highest level, which hasn't filtered down, I have an accountant, Morgan Stanley, and the broker is a good buddy of mine. He wouldn't know gold coin of a fell on his foot. I said, "Do you know your chief investment officer said sell half your bonds and put half of it into gold?" And he said, "No, but this is coming from the CIO. It's starting at the top and the big money who positions before the plebs, they'll get it, but long after the big money is already sitting comfortably in their deck chair. >> Absolutely. Yeah. No first mover advantage right there, right? Absolutely. Um, talking about that, it's like $5,000 gold, $100 silver. What kind of doors does that open? Like what kind of possibilities? And I'm really thinking towards government revaluation and other ideas like what kind of shenanigans can can be done now at this price level. Well, I'm giving a talk here this week, tomorrow, about gold going higher than anyone thinks possible because the the goal of this administration is to shed the reserve currency. As crazy as that sounds, the term Triffin's dilemma says you will never have a trade a positive trade surplus if you're the reserve currency. Vice President Vance has talked about it. the knucklehead. Uh Jared Bernstein, one of the goofiest guys I've ever seen in my life, trying to explain how treasuries are created. He was the chief e uh chief uh economist for the Biden administration. He did write a report called Dethrone King Dollar, which advocates for losing the reserve status. And there are mechanisms like the Genius Act, which says by January 1st of next year, anytime money moves, it will move via stable coin. And the stable coin has to be pegged to Treasury's 90-day maturity or less. The Clarity Act says that well that that um interest is not transferable to me or you the holder of the stable coin. The issuer keeps it. USA Tether their CEO was a man name is a man named Bo Hines that was Trump's cryptosar through August. What has Tether been doing with all of that interest? They have 14 billion in gold right now which is the the largest stockpile in the world outside of central banks. And what does rising gold do? Devalues the dollar. And if Judy Shelton, who was on my show uh twice, is right, she said Trump told her July 4th of this year, which is at the 250th anniversary of the country, he'll peg the back end of the bond market to gold. This is how you bring back um manufacturing at zero upfront borrowing cost because you have to pay it in gold down the road. Zero coupon bonds. So you have the Genius Act on the front end of the curve. The interest goes into gold which pushes the price of gold up, depresses the dollar. And if Bo Hines is the CEO, do you think there was a wink wink nod nod that said that gold that you guys are buying is going to be purchased by the US Treasury? If they then back the back end of the bond market, you talk of revaluation. James Rickard says 24,000. What if it goes a whole hell of a lot higher? VanC funds just came out and said if the dollar loses its reserve status, meaning the Treasury to me more than anything, and it and gold replaces it, they see gold going to $180,000. That's Van. So, imagine you sell a 20-year bond, redeemable in 100 million in gold. Today, at 5,000 an ounce, that's a lot of gold, right? 20,000 ounces or whatever. How about at 180,000? Now, in 20 years, bang, you just ended up giving 300 times less than you did today. So, not only does the dollar get massively devalued, but you can now bring back manufacturing at zero upfront borrowing costs and sell your products at a wickedly devalued dollar. That's what the whole world has done to us. This is how they got that's how they sold us their goods. The dollar has been stronger than anything. And Triffin's dilemma in essence says that the world needs more dollars than we can give them through trade alone. So, they end up selling their currency to buy ours. Our dollar goes up against theirs. And so we will always have a trade imbalance no matter what. So the moral of the story is Kai, I think we are entering into a new monetary system where gold is replacing in many respects the treasury. And that's why I don't think we're in a bubble. I think we are in a new monetary system. And to use old school um technical analysis or anything you want to look at that has worked in the past, I don't think it works anymore. And that's what you have to wake up and realize. At least that's what I believe. So you do you think down the road the US is weaponizing gold? >> I don't think weaponizing is the right word. I think the US is letting gold higher to deval letting gold go higher and incentivizing it to go higher to peg it to the bond market to reshore manufacturing. Look, Ray Dalio just came out and said 60% of the country has a reading proficiency under that of the sixth grade. We're 200 trillion in debt when you add in Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, government military pensions. We don't make anything. So, we're broke, we're insolvent, we're uneducated, we don't make anything. And guess what? Here comes AI just in time to the party to kneecap entry-level jobs and even white collar jobs like accounting. My son was getting paid 80 grand a year by Price Waterhouse to analyze a real estate invest a real estate investment trust balance sheet. What the hell do they need him for when AI does it like that? So, now he's working for me. The point of it is this is that the world is changing and if we don't do something, we're dead. We cannot be reliant on the rest of the world for everything we need from aspirin to aircraft parts. And so we are reshoring manufacturing. How do you do it? You have to shed the reserve status. Triffin's dilemma says so. You have to let the dollar collapse in the face of rising gold. And if you can bring it back at no upfront borrowing and build the manufacturing by pegging it to gold, zero coupon bonds, and let go go higher and higher and higher by the time you pay it off, it's a fraction of what it was when you sold the bond. To me, it just makes so much sense. And I don't know why more I'm Maybe I'm stupid, Kai. I've said a lot of things on your show that no one ever said. Like when we started talking about things I was talking about the bricks. Nobody was. No, it's everywhere. I'm saying this. I hear no one saying it. So either I'm stupid or I'm on to something or have the courage to say what I believe. It's a little bit of both. Okay. >> All we tremendously appreciate it, Andy, by the way. So we we we do. Um, so in in in that scenario, what happens with China? Cuz they admittedly own the largest gold reserves on the planet. Nobody knows the exact number, but it's rumored 30,000 tons and more, of course. What happens with China? >> What China is doing right now is setting the stage for the bricks. Um, and and I think they're doing that. They're calling it expansion, internationalization of the yuan to not antagonize Trump. So here's what they're doing. First of all, they are making their digital yuan immediately convertible into gold without going into dollars. That's been done. And you would do that through the Shanghai Metals Exchange, right? When gold leaves China, it has to come out of Hong Kong in order to be exported. So, they're expanding their they have an expansion plan of their Shanghai exchange. The first one was just completed in Hong Kong. So, let's just play this out. China buys oil using either the Mbridge or the SIPs. the crossber payment system which is both are free from by the way Embridge and the unit which we've talked about before it is now operational they've traded on it slowly don't tell anyone but it is happening so they trade with one another over this platform that does not allow for swift interference digital yuan to buy oil from Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia has this digital yuan but it's now convertible into gold I don't want to hold it maybe bang we send it back and we get the gold out of Hong Kong through the Shanghai exchange, but they're expanding their ecosystem multi-jurisdictionally. Guess where vault number two is under construction? >> Saudi Arabia. >> Saudi Arabia, who is also the fifth participant next to China, Hong Kong, Thailand, and the UAE in Embridge, a crossber payment system free from Swift. They're building it all throughout these vaults all throughout the belt road in Asia, in Africa, in South America. So you trade your local currencies, strengthening your own ecosystems, being responsible for your own monetary ecosystem instead of strengthening the US and then settling in balances in gold and deliverable in a series of multi-jurisdictional vaults. That is what's happening. And to one step further, the Chinese just signed up the Asian countries, the acronym as they are the China's largest trading partner by far. They're all the big countries in Southeast Asia. They have 800 million people twice out of the US. 30% of global GDP. They're all settling now across the SIPs or the Embridge. And here's the interesting thing. All of these trades, largest trading partner by far, used to be in dollars. Chips away at the at the settlements value of the dollar. And then in when you have all those dollars, you have to hold them in treasuries, right? And earn yield on those dollars instead of let them just sit there. So they would put the excess reserves in treasuries. Now they're buying gold instead, which not only has doubled the performance of the 10-year Treasury over the last 25 years. Look at the last two or three. Two years ago, gold up 40%, the 10 year up four and a half. Last year, gold up 80%, 10 year up four. I mean, it's it's and it can't be sanctioned. So all of the money going into gold instead of treasuries massively cuts into the reserve status. If you don't allow yourself to think outside the damn box, you are going to be a victim. have to see what's happening. And the fact is, you got to listen to Kai Hoffman or me or any of the other people here to see this. And if all you do is watch the mainstream, you may be very well read, but you're reading the wrong stuff. >> Absolutely. And that bombshell, we're going to wrap it up here. Andy, I got I got to ask. I know you probably can't answer. What's your gold price forecast and silver price forecast? Let's say June 30th this year. >> You know, I mean, that all that is is a guess. But if I were going to if I had a gun to my head and said you guess I would say um 6,6500 maybe 7,000 because Jeff the Jeff used to be Jeff Beige and they were primary uh primary distributors for the US Mint and all the major mints. They know gold. They're not in the business anymore but they know gold. They said 7,000 to 7500 is before we see a little slowdown. um 7,000 maybe I don't know 6,500 and if I had to say silver 175 bucks wouldn't surprise me at all and probably much higher by the end of the year but again I I'm not a guest guy >> but I wouldn't be surprised to see it. >> I I figured I had to ask since I got you here. >> You'll have me on in June or July and we'll see how those >> Exactly. Will's like Andy, you were right. >> I hope so, man. If if that's the case, uh I'm going to get a shirt saying I was right. >> There you go. I did call I did send Keith Newmier a congratulations cuz he sent me a triple digit silver shirt three years ago over the holidays and I sent him a message said man that's a collector's item now. >> Oh exactly. He's been on the show saying talking about $100 silver for a while silver. >> Phenomenal. Absolutely amazing times we live in. Thank you so much for joining us. Where can we send our audience to follow your work what's the name of your YouTube channel? >> So our YouTube channel which we've just eclipsed 104,000 subscribers in under a year. I can't even believe it is Miles Franklin Media and thank you for saying that. >> Fantastic. Awesome. No, congratulations on that and uh really appreciate you being here. >> Kai, you stay well, brother. >> Absolutely. Everybody else, thanks so much for tuning in here to Sore Financially from the floor of the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference. Tremendously appreciate you watching. Let us help or help us catch Andy cuz we're sitting at 92,000 subscribers roughly and I want to break 100 by the end of this quarter. So, tremendously appreciate your support. Really appreciate you watching. Thanks so much for stopping by here at the booth from time to time saying hello. Means a lot. Thanks so much. Take care out there.
The Gold & Silver Market Just BROKE | Andy Schectman
Summary
Transcript
Hello and welcome back to Soore Financially here from the floor of the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference. My name is Kai Hoffman. I'm the Edj Mining guy over on X and of course your host of this channel and I'm looking forward to bringing back Andy Sheckchman. Andy, this is a tradition now. It's great to have you here in Vancouver. Thanks so much for joining me. >> Yeah, you know, I'm not just saying this, Kai. You're one of the best guys in the industry. One of the nicest guys I've met in 35 years. It's a pleasure to be here, brother. >> Tremendously appreciate that, Andy. Thank you so much. >> It's true. It's well earned, too. You're you're doing a great job. >> I love our conversations. tremendously enjoy them. Uh, lots to learn and lots to talk about again today. It's been a while since we spoke. >> So, gold $5,000, silver $103. >> What is that telling you? Let's start high level. >> It's telling me that because of the deliveries, Kai, which never happened, mind you, less than 1% of contracts on ComX or LBMA really ever stood for delivery. Now, it's a lot, huge amounts. um record month after record month after record month after record month for the last 16 months since Trump won the election. It's telling me that gold and silver are finally beginning to slowly find real price disco discovery, which they've never been allowed to to find ever. Going all the way back to the London gold pool, never found price discovery. It's starting to happen because delivery is overwhelming the ability to suppress with paper. That's just the bottom line. Russ Bey said on stage earlier this morning and I didn't see like the whole context but he said we're in a bubble. Okay. What What do you make of that when you hear that? Somebody say that. >> I think that's not true. >> I think that short-term caution can always should always be employed in a market that's moved up this fast. Long-term bullishness can coexist with that. And again, what I think people, even people like Ross, who far be it from me to argue with a man who's had serial serial success like him, but I believe this is different. This is not uh technical analysis. This is not what used to be. The dollar was always the beacon of trust and the um the dollar isn't trusted anymore. Nor are our institutions, nor are nor is the system trusted. And I think gold and silver are reflecting that through delivery. The biggest most well-informed players in the world continue to stand for delivery at a level no one has ever seen. and the retail public wouldn't know a gold coin if it fell on their foot. So, no, this is far from a bubble. If the if this room was filled with people that have never been to a place like this ever, >> then I might agree with that that the retail public has no idea yet. >> Yeah. Like just just looking around here, it feels like a lot of the old punters are back. >> Yeah. I mean, there's more people here for sure. >> Yeah. >> But this isn't mainstream, dude. I mean, I've been doing this for so long and I live in a country club of very well-healed people and maybe five or six of them have bought gold and silver from me. I don't talk about it. They know what I do, but there are very very very successful wealthy people that are just who who believe what Ross is that this is oversold or overbought rather. This is a you know, this is a bubble. Look at the technicals. And I would say none of that matters in an environment that was once manipulated and is now trying to break free from that because the most well-informed traders in the world disagree. And I think that's the public hasn't caught on yet. So no, I think we're a long ways away. But a correction, sure, doesn't change my long-term bullishness view. >> Absolutely. No, it makes makes sense. Like no bull market goes up in a straight line, right? Even a 30% correction is normal in bull markets, which would be painful, but normal, >> right? Um, I'm glad you didn't say that we're sitting or looking at a short squeeze or silver squeeze or anything like that. Any of those hype meme words. Um, like what does the supply and demand look like right now in the back like that? We don't really look at like what does it look like? you know, on the highest level in December, we saw 65 million ounces or so delivered off the Comx or onto the COMX. Who Who's buying that? A mint box of silver eagles is 500 ounces, weighs 42 lb. >> Who's buying 65 million ounces, but it's been between 40 and 60 plus million ounces every darn month for the last 15 16 months? Who's doing that? And you know, you look at the LBMA, David Jensen, one of the best that there is. He says that London has two billion ounces in outstanding spot contracts that are that have standing behind it 140 million ounces. What could possibly go wrong if everyone stands for delivery? 2 billion into a window of 140 million. That's a problem. Uh but when you look at what's happening here in in the United States on a retail market, it's very very very confusing market. um largely because the price is moving up so fast that and it the cost of of maintaining positions is moving up so fast. Let me put you this way. We hedge every ounce we have. We will typically have between 2 and 3 million ounces of silver in our warehouse. To hedge one 5,000 ounce silver comx contract, you need to have over 40,000 bucks in your margin account. On Christmas Day, it was 21,000. And so, not only are the margin rates going higher, which shakes the weak hands off the tree, let's look at December. They raised it twice, twice in two weeks before and after Christmas. So, the day Christmas 21,000, the next day 27,000 in your margin account, now it's over 40. But if you are someone with a bunch of money in your margin account, you have a bunch of contracts, you're trying to take advantage of the silver run, and all of a sudden they raise the margins on you by by 30% on the day after Christmas and if you don't pay, we liquidate. Well, a lot of people are forced to liquidate to cover their margin on the other contracts or whatnot, which selling beget selling beget selling. Now, in 2011, that killed the rally. That's what they did to stop the rally. They raised margin a bunch. This time, what happens? Oh, it's the largest delivery in the history of the of the COMX for the December contract because the people that are standing for delivery Kai, they don't use margin. They don't care. It's a subsidy to them. Thank you very much. They say scoop it up and stand for delivery. So things are changing, but I will tell you like refineries, they're not taking any business right now because it's taking them so long to purify and produce and and they have to hedge their position too. So if they have 30 million in work, it takes weeks to get it fully produced from scrap or junk silver or or dory or whatever to the refined product takes a while. But the price is moving up so fast that they're hedgebook. So if you have 30 million, you have to sell 30 million on COMX. So if the price of your 30 million in inventory drops by, you know, 10 bucks, you're not out enough to put you out of business. So instead, you short the exact same amount. You remain market neutral. problem is silver's moving up so fast and the rate hikes are moving up that they're getting margin called. So the refiners aren't taking anything. The big companies like myself and even the bigger ones who try to hedge if you have 3 million ounces and it costs 41,000 to hedge 5,000 ounces the cost you have to have millions and millions and millions of dollars in your margin account just to maintain a hedge position. It's a crazy environment right now Kai. I've never seen anything like it. But to me, all I look at is the most well-informed traders since I started talking with you was the central banks. And now it's progressed to whoever the hell is doing it here in the United States at a level no one's ever seen before. >> Like how close like it sounds like we're very close to a tipping point here. Like very close. >> It does. Well, I mean, look what the US government did after all of these imports. What do they do? Oh, that's right. Silver's a critical mineral. Oh, that's right. We are now putting a floor underneath it in within the next 90 days. a state sponsored floor underneath all the critical minerals. Why? To incentivize domestic mining. If silver is found in a form called epothermal, like your skin is epidermis near the top, big deposits were found forever ago. So, you got to dig further. Most of it comes from byproduct of copper, lead, and zinc. You got to dig further. Look more. Well, the all-in sustaining cost at that level is probably 40 bucks. So, if you put a price floor high enough underneath it, you will incentivize domestic mining. And now they just came out and are proposing a strategic stockpile. So you can see these things are happening. But the thing is that the mainstream doesn't get this, doesn't talk about it. You got to listen to people, conspiracy theorists like you and I, right? Or are we? Or are we maybe just seeing things a little bit more clearly than the mass? >> I think we got the track record now to prove that. Maybe not. >> We do. Well, you know, on some things anyway. Ask our wives. They may tell you differently. [laughter] >> No, no, absolutely. No, it's interesting cuz you know, there's so much going on. The question is now, of course, we all said, "Oh, at $5,000 gold, $100 silver, the world is burning." All right. Are you do you see the world burning right now? >> I mean, yes and no. I don't think >> is it as bad as you expected it to be when we looked at like like 5 years ago, you said, "Okay, if gold hits this, the world is burning." >> Well, people would always say, "Be careful what you wish for." But really, to me, what it is, instead of the world burning, it's the dollar bills that we call money are burning. the paper currencies have the the sustaining power of a melting ice cube. And so, did gold and silver really go higher or did the dollar that we call money really fall further? And I think that's what it is. When you're creating a trillion dollars in debt every hundred days and a trillion seconds ago was 31,688 years ago. When the world no longer trusts dollars, no longer trusts treasuries, no longer trusts our institutions, judicial system, electoral system, immigration system, all of these systems, then what is the incentive to hold treasuries and or to hold dollars? There's not. And that's why we're seeing ddollarization. That's why we're seeing commodities usurping uh treasuries. That's why we're seeing the dollar lose purchasing power. The world is always burning somewhere, but not to the way that people would frame it at $5,000 gold or $100 silver. >> So, so is this really anti-dollar positioning that we're seeing or is there more to it? It feels like it's difficult to boil it down to one point. >> I think at the highest level it is. It is anti-dollar system. It is the realization that money is gold and silver and everything else is just credit as JP Morgan said but yes I think to a large degree it is at the highest level you know there's a whole school of to Ross Bey's point the counter to it there's a whole school of investment theory called wave theory right of Elliot wave which is about the masses the people here are the pimple on the elephant's ass this is not the masses the masses are out there And Kondrad and Elliot of Wave says it measures the emotions of the public, the the herd from, you know, uh, greed, which turns into exuberance, irrational exuberance, fear, panic, and and and we're long ways away from the fear side of it with pouring into the into metals with the public. We're a long way from that top on the retail level. Um, they haven't even really started to run through the door yet. So up there they see it, they're prepositioning, but I don't think we're anywhere near that blowoff top because the public is really not participating. >> No, I think you're mirroring what Goldman Sachs has been saying as well, like, hey, we're increasing our uh price target for the end of the year to $5,400, for example, for gold just because we're only seeing now private investors start to come in more. >> Well, you know, the difference between us and Goldman Sachs is that we've been saying this forever and they keep changing. It's like a moving target. Yeah. 2,000, no 2,400, no 3,000, no 3100, no, and they keep going higher and higher and higher. At some point, it would just be nice if they said we were wrong. And they have been wrong. And you look at the S&P 500 up under 20% in the midst of the greatest tech boom ever last year, silver up 150, seven times it, gold up almost 80, four times it. Where are the advisors who said, "Don't buy that stuff. It pays no interest." Where are they with the tail between their legs saying, you know, I don't know. You know, you live in Germany. I don't know if you remember Happy Days, the TV show. You remember that? No, I don't. There was a TV show and for your older viewers, they'll remember it. And there was a guy called the FS and he was this leather jacket motorcycle. He was super cool and he he could never say I was wrong. He would say I was R. I was they can't say the they can't say they were wrong and they have been. And the people who have separated themselves from the masses have been right. And this is why I think we all need to trust our gut and our intuition because we're in uncharted waters. And that speaks, I think, um, far more clearly than a financial adviser who might have different interests or objectives than you and and maybe has been married to a school of ideology that that stocks and mutual funds and bonds are the road to retirement. So, they learn more and more about less and less till they know everything about nothing. But what do you know? The CIO, chief investment officer of Morgan Stanley, what did he say? Well, that 60/40 B stock bond platform that we've used for 50 years, it's broken. Sell half your bonds and put it into into gold. So, here at the highest level, which hasn't filtered down, I have an accountant, Morgan Stanley, and the broker is a good buddy of mine. He wouldn't know gold coin of a fell on his foot. I said, "Do you know your chief investment officer said sell half your bonds and put half of it into gold?" And he said, "No, but this is coming from the CIO. It's starting at the top and the big money who positions before the plebs, they'll get it, but long after the big money is already sitting comfortably in their deck chair. >> Absolutely. Yeah. No first mover advantage right there, right? Absolutely. Um, talking about that, it's like $5,000 gold, $100 silver. What kind of doors does that open? Like what kind of possibilities? And I'm really thinking towards government revaluation and other ideas like what kind of shenanigans can can be done now at this price level. Well, I'm giving a talk here this week, tomorrow, about gold going higher than anyone thinks possible because the the goal of this administration is to shed the reserve currency. As crazy as that sounds, the term Triffin's dilemma says you will never have a trade a positive trade surplus if you're the reserve currency. Vice President Vance has talked about it. the knucklehead. Uh Jared Bernstein, one of the goofiest guys I've ever seen in my life, trying to explain how treasuries are created. He was the chief e uh chief uh economist for the Biden administration. He did write a report called Dethrone King Dollar, which advocates for losing the reserve status. And there are mechanisms like the Genius Act, which says by January 1st of next year, anytime money moves, it will move via stable coin. And the stable coin has to be pegged to Treasury's 90-day maturity or less. The Clarity Act says that well that that um interest is not transferable to me or you the holder of the stable coin. The issuer keeps it. USA Tether their CEO was a man name is a man named Bo Hines that was Trump's cryptosar through August. What has Tether been doing with all of that interest? They have 14 billion in gold right now which is the the largest stockpile in the world outside of central banks. And what does rising gold do? Devalues the dollar. And if Judy Shelton, who was on my show uh twice, is right, she said Trump told her July 4th of this year, which is at the 250th anniversary of the country, he'll peg the back end of the bond market to gold. This is how you bring back um manufacturing at zero upfront borrowing cost because you have to pay it in gold down the road. Zero coupon bonds. So you have the Genius Act on the front end of the curve. The interest goes into gold which pushes the price of gold up, depresses the dollar. And if Bo Hines is the CEO, do you think there was a wink wink nod nod that said that gold that you guys are buying is going to be purchased by the US Treasury? If they then back the back end of the bond market, you talk of revaluation. James Rickard says 24,000. What if it goes a whole hell of a lot higher? VanC funds just came out and said if the dollar loses its reserve status, meaning the Treasury to me more than anything, and it and gold replaces it, they see gold going to $180,000. That's Van. So, imagine you sell a 20-year bond, redeemable in 100 million in gold. Today, at 5,000 an ounce, that's a lot of gold, right? 20,000 ounces or whatever. How about at 180,000? Now, in 20 years, bang, you just ended up giving 300 times less than you did today. So, not only does the dollar get massively devalued, but you can now bring back manufacturing at zero upfront borrowing costs and sell your products at a wickedly devalued dollar. That's what the whole world has done to us. This is how they got that's how they sold us their goods. The dollar has been stronger than anything. And Triffin's dilemma in essence says that the world needs more dollars than we can give them through trade alone. So, they end up selling their currency to buy ours. Our dollar goes up against theirs. And so we will always have a trade imbalance no matter what. So the moral of the story is Kai, I think we are entering into a new monetary system where gold is replacing in many respects the treasury. And that's why I don't think we're in a bubble. I think we are in a new monetary system. And to use old school um technical analysis or anything you want to look at that has worked in the past, I don't think it works anymore. And that's what you have to wake up and realize. At least that's what I believe. So you do you think down the road the US is weaponizing gold? >> I don't think weaponizing is the right word. I think the US is letting gold higher to deval letting gold go higher and incentivizing it to go higher to peg it to the bond market to reshore manufacturing. Look, Ray Dalio just came out and said 60% of the country has a reading proficiency under that of the sixth grade. We're 200 trillion in debt when you add in Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, government military pensions. We don't make anything. So, we're broke, we're insolvent, we're uneducated, we don't make anything. And guess what? Here comes AI just in time to the party to kneecap entry-level jobs and even white collar jobs like accounting. My son was getting paid 80 grand a year by Price Waterhouse to analyze a real estate invest a real estate investment trust balance sheet. What the hell do they need him for when AI does it like that? So, now he's working for me. The point of it is this is that the world is changing and if we don't do something, we're dead. We cannot be reliant on the rest of the world for everything we need from aspirin to aircraft parts. And so we are reshoring manufacturing. How do you do it? You have to shed the reserve status. Triffin's dilemma says so. You have to let the dollar collapse in the face of rising gold. And if you can bring it back at no upfront borrowing and build the manufacturing by pegging it to gold, zero coupon bonds, and let go go higher and higher and higher by the time you pay it off, it's a fraction of what it was when you sold the bond. To me, it just makes so much sense. And I don't know why more I'm Maybe I'm stupid, Kai. I've said a lot of things on your show that no one ever said. Like when we started talking about things I was talking about the bricks. Nobody was. No, it's everywhere. I'm saying this. I hear no one saying it. So either I'm stupid or I'm on to something or have the courage to say what I believe. It's a little bit of both. Okay. >> All we tremendously appreciate it, Andy, by the way. So we we we do. Um, so in in in that scenario, what happens with China? Cuz they admittedly own the largest gold reserves on the planet. Nobody knows the exact number, but it's rumored 30,000 tons and more, of course. What happens with China? >> What China is doing right now is setting the stage for the bricks. Um, and and I think they're doing that. They're calling it expansion, internationalization of the yuan to not antagonize Trump. So here's what they're doing. First of all, they are making their digital yuan immediately convertible into gold without going into dollars. That's been done. And you would do that through the Shanghai Metals Exchange, right? When gold leaves China, it has to come out of Hong Kong in order to be exported. So, they're expanding their they have an expansion plan of their Shanghai exchange. The first one was just completed in Hong Kong. So, let's just play this out. China buys oil using either the Mbridge or the SIPs. the crossber payment system which is both are free from by the way Embridge and the unit which we've talked about before it is now operational they've traded on it slowly don't tell anyone but it is happening so they trade with one another over this platform that does not allow for swift interference digital yuan to buy oil from Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia has this digital yuan but it's now convertible into gold I don't want to hold it maybe bang we send it back and we get the gold out of Hong Kong through the Shanghai exchange, but they're expanding their ecosystem multi-jurisdictionally. Guess where vault number two is under construction? >> Saudi Arabia. >> Saudi Arabia, who is also the fifth participant next to China, Hong Kong, Thailand, and the UAE in Embridge, a crossber payment system free from Swift. They're building it all throughout these vaults all throughout the belt road in Asia, in Africa, in South America. So you trade your local currencies, strengthening your own ecosystems, being responsible for your own monetary ecosystem instead of strengthening the US and then settling in balances in gold and deliverable in a series of multi-jurisdictional vaults. That is what's happening. And to one step further, the Chinese just signed up the Asian countries, the acronym as they are the China's largest trading partner by far. They're all the big countries in Southeast Asia. They have 800 million people twice out of the US. 30% of global GDP. They're all settling now across the SIPs or the Embridge. And here's the interesting thing. All of these trades, largest trading partner by far, used to be in dollars. Chips away at the at the settlements value of the dollar. And then in when you have all those dollars, you have to hold them in treasuries, right? And earn yield on those dollars instead of let them just sit there. So they would put the excess reserves in treasuries. Now they're buying gold instead, which not only has doubled the performance of the 10-year Treasury over the last 25 years. Look at the last two or three. Two years ago, gold up 40%, the 10 year up four and a half. Last year, gold up 80%, 10 year up four. I mean, it's it's and it can't be sanctioned. So all of the money going into gold instead of treasuries massively cuts into the reserve status. If you don't allow yourself to think outside the damn box, you are going to be a victim. have to see what's happening. And the fact is, you got to listen to Kai Hoffman or me or any of the other people here to see this. And if all you do is watch the mainstream, you may be very well read, but you're reading the wrong stuff. >> Absolutely. And that bombshell, we're going to wrap it up here. Andy, I got I got to ask. I know you probably can't answer. What's your gold price forecast and silver price forecast? Let's say June 30th this year. >> You know, I mean, that all that is is a guess. But if I were going to if I had a gun to my head and said you guess I would say um 6,6500 maybe 7,000 because Jeff the Jeff used to be Jeff Beige and they were primary uh primary distributors for the US Mint and all the major mints. They know gold. They're not in the business anymore but they know gold. They said 7,000 to 7500 is before we see a little slowdown. um 7,000 maybe I don't know 6,500 and if I had to say silver 175 bucks wouldn't surprise me at all and probably much higher by the end of the year but again I I'm not a guest guy >> but I wouldn't be surprised to see it. >> I I figured I had to ask since I got you here. >> You'll have me on in June or July and we'll see how those >> Exactly. Will's like Andy, you were right. >> I hope so, man. If if that's the case, uh I'm going to get a shirt saying I was right. >> There you go. I did call I did send Keith Newmier a congratulations cuz he sent me a triple digit silver shirt three years ago over the holidays and I sent him a message said man that's a collector's item now. >> Oh exactly. He's been on the show saying talking about $100 silver for a while silver. >> Phenomenal. Absolutely amazing times we live in. Thank you so much for joining us. Where can we send our audience to follow your work what's the name of your YouTube channel? >> So our YouTube channel which we've just eclipsed 104,000 subscribers in under a year. I can't even believe it is Miles Franklin Media and thank you for saying that. >> Fantastic. Awesome. No, congratulations on that and uh really appreciate you being here. >> Kai, you stay well, brother. >> Absolutely. Everybody else, thanks so much for tuning in here to Sore Financially from the floor of the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference. Tremendously appreciate you watching. Let us help or help us catch Andy cuz we're sitting at 92,000 subscribers roughly and I want to break 100 by the end of this quarter. So, tremendously appreciate your support. Really appreciate you watching. Thanks so much for stopping by here at the booth from time to time saying hello. Means a lot. Thanks so much. Take care out there.