Precious Metals Rally: Silver and gold hit fresh highs amid safe-haven demand and central bank buying, with supply/demand imbalances underscored.
Silver Demand Tailwind: New silver-carbon anode battery tech promising faster charging and durability could spur industrial silver use and further tighten supply.
Stock Pick – HYMC: Hycroft Mining (HYMC) was pitched as a momentum play on silver, with the CEO hinting at upcoming positive news and shares already surging.
Obesity Drugs: Discussion of GLP-1 therapies, potential multi-receptor and pill formulations, and Medicare coverage creates a favorable setup for names like Eli Lilly (LLY).
Macro Risks: Davos focus on geoeconomic confrontation and misinformation, plus new tariff threats, coincided with a sharp market sell-off led by mega-cap tech.
Asia Dynamics: Japan’s weakening yen and bond vigilantes raise concern, while in China savings shift from property to stocks/gold as regulators tighten margin.
Corporate Highlights: Boeing (BA) reportedly outsold Airbus despite QC skepticism; Amazon (AMZN) challenged Saks’ bankruptcy over a soured $475M investment.
Funds and Banks: Hedge funds posted their best returns since 2009, and large U.S. banks delivered solid earnings benefiting from a steepening yield curve.
Transcript
Hello and welcome to D'vorak Horowitz Unplugged, an hour-long discussion of activity in the financial markets around the world featuring [music] columnist John C. D'vorak and money manager Andrew Horowitz. [music] This conversation is casual and unrehearsed. Let's join John and Andrew now. [music] >> I'm John Cavoric once again. >> Yeah. And I'm Andrew Horowitz. Hi. >> 20th of January. We're running through the month. >> Yeah. >> of 2026. It's going to be a fast year. >> Going to be a fast year. It is. It's going to be uh some good times, good things. You know, I had um uh a pro I don't want to call it a procedure done. A um my wife's like, you know, you got those like dark spots from tanning, you know, on your face. You should get this thing done with a laser. I'm like, okay. I've had that done before years ago. I'll do it again if you want. It's called BBL. So, I look up this BBL. >> What's DBL stand for? >> BBL. like B as in big big Larry. I look it up and I go, "Show me before and after pictures of BBL." And all I get is these images on the internet of these butts. These >> Brazilian buttlft. [laughter] >> A Brazilian buttlft. I'm like, I'm not getting that. What is this PBL thing? I'm not getting the Brazilian buttlft. >> I guess it's also broadband laser, maybe. I guess that's what it stands for. So, I got I got that done yesterday. It looked like uh that I put my head in a toaster. >> Yeah. You would get burned. It's burning. It just burns you up. Burns it. This is a chemical. They do it with uh liquid nitrogen, too. It's the same thing. >> Yeah. It it it's it's a it was a fun event. So, anyway, I'm sitting here right now with my face a little bit peeling and and this and this this goop on it right now. That's what I'm living with. And I went out today. Everybody's like, "Oh, looks like they got tan in Mexico." I'm like, "No, not exactly. Tomorrow will look worse, I'm sure." Anyway, here we go again. We got tariffs. We got retaliatory tariffs. We got uh uh grudging tariffs. We have uh mad at you tariffs. And then we have people selling bond. A lot of things to talk about. And and right now going on at this moment, >> although they may be sleeping right now or or partying for that matter, is the Davos economic confab where the elitists are meeting >> and supposedly making the rules for the rest of us. >> Yeah. And skiing a lot. >> The skiing, they're eating, they're drinking, they're having cigars, they're talking, they're >> hookers. >> Oh, hookers and blow. >> What you What do you you think? >> Well, you're the one that brought it up. There's lot. Yeah, there's there's always usually some prime time story about the hookers in Davos. >> Don't you think that after the whole Epstein file things they're being a little bit more careful? >> Well, okay. So, they're a little they'll be more they'll they'll dress down a little bit. >> This is my It's my sister. >> I mean, you don't go to Davos for what? >> Oh, they got a hobnob. All the big mucky mucks are there. Everybody that likes to be in front of a camera is there. All the Bloombergs, the CNBC's, the NBC's, all you know, all of them have their booths set up. You go bounce from place to place to place to place to tell them all about what you think. >> It's like social media for those that could be asked to come. >> You can't figure it out, >> right? We're going to talk about suicide coaches tonight and hedge funds. Finally, a good year. Now, here we are, as you mentioned, Tuesday, the 20th of January, and I feel like a broken record because guess what? Silver and gold are at all-time highs again. Big moves today on silver. >> Yeah, silver's on its way. >> On its way. It's It's gone. It's It's catapulted. It's rocket shift. >> It's heading to 200. >> It's quite an amazing thing to watch as all of the things that happen. And now I'm starting to get calls from clients about silver, >> which is not always a good thing. >> No, they could have probably called a week ago or two or a month. If you call a year ago, then you got something. You got a client that spotted that early. But it's only recent. They figured out that they don't have enough silver to supply demand. It's a supply demand thing. >> It is pretty amazing that it took this long to figure out something that seemingly everybody says was so obvious. Was it so obvious? No. What was obvious >> that there wasn't enough silver to supply for all the industrial use, the technology use and all that. That silver was a better conductor. But there was also a a a major breakthrough in silver's usage uh in the uh silver carbon anode for lithium ion batteries which would make the battery last pretty much forever. >> Yeah. And the the the lower heat >> it does a couple of things. it. There's no dendrites and it makes the battery last thus the battery doesn't fall apart or catch on fire and uh it makes it so it can charge like 10 times faster than it can already charge. It's just a huge deal. So everybody's going to Samsung has this invention. is a patent, but everyone's going to license it and you're going to end up with all these batteries with these uh with silver in them and it's going to just drain the silver supply, >> which is >> reason why drained. It's pre- drained. >> It's pre- drained. So now now they have to just uh keep on going after. Plus, it's also a precious metal in that it has a place in the system for when times are there's no there's no there's no mystery why silver and gold are going up right now. It's it's silver has multiple functions. Gold is also but silver has multiple and some very very newly found function and capabilities and use fact use uh use rationale and at the same time gold and silver though used as a place to find uh calm and a potential storm and that's why the central banks are buying them up so readily. So both those things happening. Um, we had a big sell-off today on the heels of this is the day after Martin Luther King Day when markets in the United States were closed. But over the weekend, Trump decided to throw some new tariffs up. You know, said, you know, you guys, you eight countries or so, and we'll get into the details of who they are. Uh, you're not following along with the game plan here. We want Green Greenland. That's it. I want it. There's a great meme. Uh there was a lady kind of cartoonish and uh uh the back of Trump's head sitting at a table. It was kind of a young Trump. And the lady says and and young Trump is is is is taking his fork and he's his spoon. He's trying to go after some food. And the lady says the mother says no Greenland until you finish your Venezuela. >> [laughter] >> So, >> so there there was these there were protests all over the country um today because it was the anniversary of Trump's uh >> Oh, were they wearing the [ __ ] hats? >> No, no, there were just a there was funny Mimi pointed this out. She was driving around the area and then I went out to to get the to go to the post office and there were there there's two places in the uh uh area Elserto that have um where they where these protesters show up and she me made the point of saying there's not one protester in Berkeley the entire town of radical Berkeley but the Elserita where there's all these retirees they're all out and I you know I took a few photos and they're uh all retirees. They're all in their 60s,7s and 80s and maybe older and with holding and yelling and screaming and there's probably maybe a hundred of them. Quite a few actually for a for you know just a small town and they uh one of the big signs that cracked me up was hands off Greenland. >> Yeah. G and Greenlanders were wearing the MAGA hats. >> And so, yes, the Greenlanders love the idea. But so, in other words, some retired old woman >> in Elserto, California is just concerned as hell that she has to come out and protest with a sign that says Hands Off Greenland. I'm telling you, I I laugh for at least 10 minutes. >> Well, you know, so silly. >> Do you know what the MAGA hats stand for in Greenland? >> What? Make America go away. [laughter] >> That's what they have. The make America go away. >> I've seen I've watched the YouTubers that managed to go there and the Greenlanders would like the idea of the Danish people have not treated the Greenlanders very well. They've sterilized them that there was a sterilization program until 1995. The population of Greenland dropped from 150,000 to about 60. Today, no thanks to the sterilization program that was not welcome. uh and they've done nothing for the Greenland economy that they don't like Denmark. If if anyone really did some real research on this, the Greenlanders would love to be, you know, a colony. >> You know, it's interesting what I thought you were going to go after and what Mimi was really thinking about when she was talking about the noticing these elderly people was that they were paid for. That that's why that group of people were out. that maybe I don't know you want to say Soros whoever it is whoever was stirring the pot was >> you mean getting a little extra spending cash >> yeah was putting money saying hey you know we'll give you 50 bucks here's a sign walk around >> yeah that could be >> you know we'll close we'll close the restaurant and and open up at 4:00 for dinner for you for a week you don't have to fight the early >> wouldn't surprise me but there was nobody in Berkeley protest they're supposed to take the day off there was some movement to do that >> the 20th. Oh, take the day off. We're all going to take the day off. We're going to show them >> and we're going to make the economy grind to to a halt. And of course, that didn't happen. >> Mhm. >> And we're going to end up uh talking about Netflix tonight as well, where the saga continues and Netflix earnings came out after the bell tonight. So, there's some surprise going on there. But let's talk about Davos. I want to talk about this. The uh again, this is the elitists. They come, they sit, they're in their furs, they they have their pipes, they're, you know, uh, gonna solve the world problems. The Bilderbergs and, uh, the Kennedys are all there doing their thing. So over the years, what's happened is that the conversations that we see happening by the these people, not not necessarily the not necessarily the hedge fund managers or the people that are in the I in in the actual game, but the others, the people who, you know, like a Larry Summers would have been there if it wasn't for his shenan shenanigans. Uh >> yeah, he's he's not welcome. um or or some of these other even uh even uh Ray Dalio. I mean, God bless him, you know, Bridgewater, but some of these guys that try to push their ideals and ideas on the public constantly and some of them are good. I get it. But there's that group, you know who I'm talking about, right? The the group that's always pushing their ideals and Yeah. And >> what do you do? >> You know, even a Bill Gates, you know, these names, they're all there. We have Trump is going. Xiin Ping is supposedly going not going. Nahendra Modi not going from from um from India. Zalinski is going. Why is he going? What does he have to do with the economic outlook of the world is I guess maybe something. >> Absolutely. Well, he just wants to get out of the country. >> Oh, and >> skiing needs to go some skiing. >> Couple things. First of all, >> get killed in Ukraine. He and Jensen Dwong, can they find a new outfit? This is like the days when pretty much when Steve Jobs would come out in the black turtleneck and the black pants all the time. >> That's it. That's all they wore. They had to be in that. That's the Steve Jobs costume. >> It was a It was a uh uh costume. >> It was a costume. Jensen Wong does it with the leather jacket, you know, and and so does Zalinsky with his mock military outfit, >> right? >> You you wouldn't recognize him. Literally, if Zilinsky came in wearing a suit or looking in in I don't know, in a short sleeve shirt, something different. You could walk down the street, you'd never know it was him. >> Well, maybe that's his goal. >> Maybe that's what it is. So when he goes into hiding be like looking for the short guy with the black uh kind of rough sweater on. Anybody see? Nope. Nope. Nope. Just the guy in the green sweater over there. But that's not him, is it? Kushner's going. Bessant's going. Little Marco's going. He's going everywhere. Marco. Marco Rubo. He's getting He's got a lot going on. He gained the trust of Trump, didn't he? >> He what? >> He gained the trust of Trump. >> Oh, yeah. Well, absolutely. Are you kidding? Well, Trump needed a guy like him. I've said this on the No Agenda show, which is our >> podcast that runs every uh >> Thursday and Sunday. >> Thursday, Sunday, sorry. >> Thursday and Sunday at two. Today's Tuesday. So, uh yeah, that you you've you've listened to it occasionally. >> Occasionally. I love it. The best. >> Uh we we've talked about this on the show that Marco is set up to be the king of South America. I mean, he speaks fluent Western Hemisphere style Spanish, which is slightly different than what they speak in Europe. And uh he can go down there and talk the talk in in the native language with all these South American country people except for Brazil. >> Oh, Brazil speaks Portuguese. >> Yeah. >> Which is confusing by the way. >> Why is that? >> Similar but not the same. >> Right. So, uh, Larry Frink, uh, is the interim co-chair of the, um, the group the, uh, World Economic Forum, >> which is the overseer of this. I >> like the way he worked his way into that job. >> Well, he got it because some guy was taken out on accusations of wrongdoing. >> Yeah. I wonder who orchestrated that. Larry Frink. I wonder, let's ask Larry. Larry. And again, the CEOs that you would think of, Jensen Wong, Sanjay Nadella, you know, these guy, the guys that love the the limelight are there. Plus, many of these people know that if they get into somehow see Trump, whatever they need and whatever they say will come true. That's how it works, doesn't it? >> I We'll see. So, due out Wednesday, um there's a bunch of reports from the that's tomorrow from the World Economic Forum, a big report that they're going to produce and then they get to share. Everybody's going to talk about it's about the geopolitical confrontation being the top concern this year. Each year they come out with the top concerns by all these fellas and gals that are supposedly the biggest, the brightest, the smartest in the world. most connected. You have things like rising inflation's a big issue. Economic downturn is a big issue. Asset bubble is a big issue. High debt burden is a big issue. You remember a few years ago it was like climate, global warming, uh uh electric grid, uh you know, alternative energy. Now it's just asset bubbles, high debt burdens. There's a chart here that I thought was pretty cool that now shows their uh the global risk perception of the survey that's going to come out. One of the things that's going to come out um this is out on the 14th. This is a good chart from CNBC. Yeah. >> So, did you notice they changed their logo by the way? CNBC. >> Well, of course they got spun off, didn't they? >> They got thrown out. Spun. >> [laughter] >> thrown out seems to be they got to be taken out of the whole deal. Yeah. >> So, so go through this just just hit your hit some of the high spots that you're looking at when you just glance at this. By the way, you can see this over on DH Unplugged episode number 787 under the show notes over on dhplugged.com. This this uh this table chart uh infographic. >> Yeah, it's quite it's a good one. Everyone should have. Now, this is the thing. the the the two top items are the ones that were about Trump. Uh geoeconomic conf uh uh confrontation is number one that means uh tariffs and do what we do do what we tell you to do kind of thing. The second one though which is being cropped up a lot in the conversation. Yak yak yak. They keep bringing it up. misinformation slashdisinformation and this is the this is the this is an attack on the social networks and AI and all the rest of it because what they what they mean by doing something about misinformation and disinformation is let's get our our messaging focused on what we want people to think is true >> right everything else is fake news >> everything else is fake news what we say. So they're they're very concerned about getting back to that which is not possible anymore. >> The rest of it like social societal polarization and extreme weather events. Uh I don't know the extreme weather events events seems like a stretch. >> So there's a two-year list and there's short-term two-year list and a long-term 10-year list. I think this is pretty interesting though. Uh I I think that there we're back to the long term. Number one is extreme weather events. The number four on the short term is also extreme weather events. So everybody's worried about earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, uh you know, bad cold snaps, hot snaps, the whole >> Yeah. And this of course is right on the heels of James O'Keeffe actually being at the WF. He's the guy with the hidden camera that goes around and gets people to say stupid stuff usually or usually has a girl posing as a you batting her eyes and getting guys to say stuff. Uh he's already got a bunch of people saying that the weather is being rigged by chemical by geoengineering already and a whole bunch of people have come out with that and this will be in the news for the next couple days. So we're seeding the clouds with various chemicals or some other kind of methodology to change the weather. >> Yeah. So you can have extreme weather events. >> So So to wait to to create extreme weather events or to >> Yeah. Yeah. >> Why would we want to create extreme weather events? >> So you can use it as as leverage for political >> stuff, you know. >> Oh, control the masses. and and and behind all this is Al Gore. That's what I'm gonna hear next. >> No, I he hadn't gotten I don't think Al Gore is there, but Al Gore is definitely a a party to it. I would guess either or he's just as dumb as he sounds. >> It's funny because it's the second time this week I've heard about the cloud seating. And there's a great show to watch. Um I can't remember the name of it, but uh it's it's with a train, a perpetual train. Uh, I'll get in a second. Uh, uh, >> you talking about the movie? >> Yeah. What is it called? >> Um, >> uh, yeah, I was thinking about that movie the other day. >> The cold one is Ice Tracker. Cold Tracker. >> Yeah, the whole thing. Uh, yeah, I'll think. It's funny. I can't think of the name either. Um, >> Snowier. >> Snow Piercer. >> Yeah, >> Snow Piercer. There's a series, but the movie is better. Especially when they >> No, no, the series sucks. >> Yeah. Yeah, >> the series. No good. >> No good. Not, >> but the the movie Snowpiercer is a is a fun movie. >> Yeah. >> Especially when they get to the point where it turns out they're all eating bugs. >> I mean, that was the topper. [laughter] Spoiler alert. >> Every movie that has that, the bugs everybody loves, you know. What was the other one? No, that was uh Soilent Green. >> Remember that? >> Eating people. Yeah. >> Eating yourself. Yeah. So, my favorite >> So, Green film for people out there. >> That was what you haven't seen. I mean, I don't know how anyone could have gotten this far in life, even if you're 10, then not see Soil and Green. >> Yeah, so Green is going um anyway, so some interesting things here to check out. That's what's going on right now. We're going to hear about this um very much. Uh next, I think tomorrow Trump is going to talk. One of the big issues is is he going to continue on with the pressure campaign with Greenland? This is a big thing that's going on right now, and it has to do with the markets very much. The idea of course we know is that green land is strategically important for military for security and for other of the natural resources. Um now here's what's interesting. Trump promised 100% probability like a guarantee that it will impo he imposed the tariffs they talked about uh if if he doesn't get Greenland. uh tariffs starting on February 1st at 10% shoot up to 25% on June 1st on Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, and the United Kingdoms, the Netherlands, and Finland. So, supposedly in response to the EU allies moving troops into Greenland. So, >> I I don't understand. Explain this to me. Yeah. He's trying to get >> Greenland from its uh owner, Denmark. Yeah. >> What's the point of the terrorists on all these other guys? Are they are they pressure points? >> It's NATO. It's NATO that that's going to pressure him out, >> right? Isn't that all the NATO countries? Most of them. >> Yeah, they're Yeah, but I don't think there's a lot of countries in NATO that aren't on the list of people he's going to tariff. >> He's These are the ones that have said publicly Well, let me let me go one step further. Macron, who by the way was talking to dollars today in a very weird set of sunglasses. You need to take a look at that. Like blue giant blue reflector sun. >> Yeah. Supposedly his wife punched him in the face and he's got two black eyes. >> Oh god. Again. >> Yeah. [laughter] Didn't that happen? Seriously, once before something. >> I'm just telling you what I heard. So Mron was was all pissy and oh you know we're not going to allow this and this is going to this and you know we can't stand this. He was like the forefront guy when these tariffs come out. So what happens next? Trump says you know what by the way on top of these other tariff 200% tariffs threatened in sh on champagne and on wines coming into the country 200%. >> Yeah. Like l likely I have a seller full of wine. I can I can wait it out. So, but that that's that's where I think, look, I don't want to belabor this point because this the the today was supposed to be a day that potentially the Supreme Court was going to come out with a uh decision on the tariffs. They did not. There's some other dates that may be coming up that they will, but right now they're still not. These are the kind of things that I think hurts his case because the a a retribution type of tariff when somebody says something you doesn't you don't like doesn't help his cause and trying to say the tariffs are for certain security measures etc. We'll see. >> Ah good point. I agree. >> Yeah. Now we have the new B to peace in Gaza. These are all the things that are disrupting the markets right now today in particular. you know, NASDAQ down 2.3%, worst day since like October. Uh, Dow Jones down 850 points. Uh, S&P down 1.9%. And, uh, interestingly, equal weighted S&P was only down 1.4% or so. So, it shows that some of the big leaders led things down. Um but on the board of peace which is the bord of peace of the Gaza Marco Rubio special envoy Steve Wickoff and British prime minister former prime minister Tony Blair and son-in-law Jared Kushner all on this. Supposedly Putin was also invited to be on the board. The purpose of the board to officially the board is mandated to promote stability, restore dependable and lawful governance and secure enduring peace in areas affected or threatened by the conflict. So, we have another place there that's kind of interesting. And the these are I think those are the key issues right now that need to be resolved a bit like what's going to happen in Gaza. Um I don't think we're really worried about Taiwan from a market standpoint. The Japanese yen at 157 158 and the Japanese bond the 40-year hit uh 4% the highest in history. And the reality is the tenure is still way off from where it should be considering the financial condition of of Japan and with a snap election that's going on the current administration if they get that I think it's a week and a half or two if they get the confirmation again the yen is expected to weaken significantly from here. Talk about 170 180 on the yen. >> Why? Uh because they're pretty much not balancing a budget again and they're going to cut taxes on a few different things. Let's see. I thought I had something on this here somewhere. Uh maybe that was China. China. Uh yeah, there's no there's a bunch of things happening within Japan that this particular um this prime minister is said to be pretty stimulative and the weakening of the yen is a probability. And then uh the bond vigilantes are coming in and selling the bonds. You would think that in a in an environment where the Japanese economy is relatively strong considering where it's been and how it's on a trend stronger that the yen would actually come up in value. Or I'll tell you something else. In an environment that has geopolitical uncertainty like we saw with gold and silver rising like crazy, you would think the yen being one of the safe haven currencies, US dollar, yen, and the um the uh Swedish um is croner. What am I thinking? No, no, no. Franker, Frank, Frank, Swiss Frank, Swiss Frank. >> Um Swiss Frank, >> Swiss Frank, that's the one of the other ones, too. You would think though, but no, they're weakening the yen dramatically. real concern about what's going to happen there. Back to the Widowmaker trade again, trying to bid against the end going up. They're getting stronger. Uh Saks Fifth Avenue or Sachs, remember that good store? Do you have a shop there? I used to go to the outlet uh Sachs and I had been to the Sachs in New York City. Uh I always thought it was too expensive, but the outlet store was quite reasonable and they had good stuff. >> Yeah, I agree with that. call it fifth on something. I forgot what it was called. Some crazy name. >> Off fifth. >> Off fifth. Yes, exactly. >> So, they're uh entering into chapter 11. Problems really got worse after they agreed to purchase, as we call it in my family, Needless Markup. You know that store? >> Yeah, we had one in San Francisco. >> Yeah. Also known as Neiman Marcus. But Needless Markup was bought. And now to add some more, >> you know, that's a funny story. Never. I never Every time I went in there, it was never really that busy. >> Well, can't be. Nobody's standing at the register. They can't afford to pay. I went in there for I looked at a sport jacket one time. Like, what is this? Is this a serial number or is this the price, >> you know? Yeah. Well, that was Yes. In fact, just a shirt, a men's men's dress shirt, >> like $500 >> is imposs Yeah. You couldn't I don't know how anyone bought any of that stuff. >> Yep. That's why they >> I don't think I ever bought anything in my entire life from that store. It's too expensive. >> There was I think many years ago if I remember the story correct. Yeah. I think I bought a suit there. It was like $1,500 for the suit back back when, right? And uh I put it on. It fit great at the time. It was a little bit big, but that was the style, right? It was a really good material. Just laid on you really nicely. Got it altered there and all that. I come home, I tell the wife, she's apoplelectic. Not about in a good way, by the way. Not a good way. So, I had that suit for a number of years, you know, three, four years, whatever. And the kids would always call it, "Dad, are you wearing your million-dollar suit?" That's what they called it all the time, the million-dollar suit. >> What are you wearing? You wearing your million dollar suit? I'm like, "Yeah, I can put that on tonight. I can put that on for this." >> Who is the designer? >> I don't know. It was some Italian dude. I don't remember. It was years ago. It was definitely a name, though. But it was silly. >> Well, the Armani suits from that that you're you're I think you're hinting at were always loose fitting like that. >> Yeah, maybe it was Armani. >> They looked great. >> Yeah, Yubo Yugo Boss was always an expensive one, but that was a slim cut and I've never been that. For a minute I was for a minute was a 12 slim, right? Went right to husky from there. Went from a 12 slim to a Husky. I tell you the story, my mother brought me into a Sears one time, gained a couple of pounds when I was younger. We go into the Husky department in Sears. I'm like, what? What's this? I was like, I don't know, 13 or 12 or maybe 14, whatever it was. 11. I go, what is Husky? She goes, oh, that's for really strong boys. I'm like, oh, great. The Husky department of Sears. >> You got buffaloed. >> Yep. Um, Amazon has filed an objection on Sachs Global, their bankruptcy um on the ground to harm creditors and push the tech company further down the repayment pecking order. See, what happened was that when Sachs bought Needless Markup in December of 2024, Amazon invested $475 million, which now they say is essentially worthless. So, Amazon is threatening uh drastic remedies if Sachs doesn't uh heed its concerns, including the appointment of an examiner or a trustee. Now, you're probably thinking, why the hell would Amazon do such a thing if invest $475 million in Sachs at >> Yeah, that's what I was thinking. >> Yeah, at the time they thought that Sachs would start selling it products on Amazon's website and the tech company Amazon was going to offer technology and logistics expertise. But on the turn, Amazon's attorneys now say that SAS continuously failed to meet its budgets, burned through hundreds of millions of dollars in less than a year, and ra ran up additional hundreds of millions of dollars in unpaid invoices owned owed to its retail partners. So, I don't think there's any surprise here with the, you know, the companies like um even even the Dillards, the Kohl's, you know, the these these company Macy's, they're they're they're doing all sorts of things to try to pretend things are okay. It's pathetic. >> Yep. So, it's going to be a big big uh >> the era of the big depart American the overseas. They're still doing well, but uh the days of the big American department stores are over. >> Yeah. They're now pickle ball and pedel complexes. >> What happened? >> What happened was that the I'll tell you what happened. One of the big thing I I I tell you what happened because I did a little bit of research into this and I was reading a bunch of about this because back in the day where did you go for a social outing? Went to the mall as a kid. You grew up in the malls. >> Yeah. A lot of kid mall kids drove you to the malls. >> You hung out with your friends and walked the mall. Your parents are like, "I'll pick you up in two hours." You're like, "Okay." They wal around bought stuff in the malls. It was a meet in a greet place. Where do people meet now? >> Online. >> Yep. So that killed the whole structure of what it was. Then on top of that, you had the um the situation where people got used to buying online. No longer did they need to try on things because you can get 14 different things from Amazon. Try them all on and send them all back except one if you want free of charge. >> Yeah. That that's unbelievable. So the d the the the change in dynamics of how people not only shopped because the mall was not necessarily a place to go shopping. It was but it was a place to first socialize and you go to the food courts you spend the day. >> A lot of food court stuff. Mrs. Fields cookies are stinking up the place. >> Yep. >> And Andy's pretzels. >> Cinnabun. Cinnabun would be in some of these places and they stink up the place. Oh yeah. And he could always just walk around in circles and get that bourbon chicken sample [laughter] >> over and over again. >> Yeah. Yeah. Bourbon chicken, [laughter] >> which still nobody knows how it's made. It's a mystery how good the mold The bourbon chicken in the mall was always delicious. [laughter] It was dark meat, too, by the way. That's why. >> Yeah, that's why it was good. >> Yeah. Nobody knew. Like, I'll try that. I hate dark meat. Oh, try this. Oh, that's delicious. Yeah, that the dark meat, white meat phenomenon, what you just described is always mystified me. Dark meat is so much tastier. >> So much tastier to cook it and work with it in the kitchen is kind of a night and day experience, right? White meat is clean, white, very little fat. Dark meat, if you get like a just a the thigh, just a boneless thigh, let's say, it's a lot of fat that you got to either cut off or recognize what it is. Yeah, there's some issues with its preparation compared to a chicken breast. >> Yeah. A dry chicken breast versus >> dry chicken breast. Yeah. Get the right adjective. >> Yeah. A dry chicken breast versus a very nice, moist, tasty thigh. Yeah, I agree. And it's interesting how thighs are less expensive. >> Yeah. People want they I don't know what it is. They like that dried chicken. Well, uh, let's talk about suicide coaches, shall we? Have you heard about this phrase? >> No. >> This year, you really saw something pretty horrific, which is the AI models becoming suicide coaches. That's what Mark Benoff is talking about when he was interviewed by Sarah Eisen at the World Economic Forum's flagship conference in Davos, Switzerland. Now, this is the same guy in 2018. He was all over the social media is bad for you. You know, they they social media should be treated like a health issue. Should be regulated like cigarettes. They're addictive. They're not good for you. Now, this is the CEO of Salesforce. I don't know what his angle is on Unless he's being >> Yeah. What is his angle? >> I don't know. I don't know if he's being intellectually honest with this or there's some kind of angle. I don't know like if this is real down to earth. Well, he does have a lot of hospital wings named after himself. So, he does have a health nut, even though if you've ever met him, uh, he's doesn't seem like a guy who's a health nut. >> Are you talking about his body size? >> Well, he's a he's >> bigger fella. >> Yeah, he's a a husky >> and so uh so it's possible that he's just he's just being a good guy. >> Yeah. He says bad things were happening all over the world because social media was fully unregulated, he said. And now you're kind of seeing that play out again with artificial intelligence. I guess there's been some trend that people get on their AI and like help me commit suicide. How would I commit suicide? What's the easiest way to commit suicide? Here I got a green pill, a blue pill, and a and and a red pill. What should I take if if what would somebody take? How what should somebody not take if they didn't want to die and or whatever? You know what I mean? Yeah, it's it's terrible. >> So, it's terrible. Let's go over to China for a minute here. China in 20125, the new yuan loans of 16.27 trillion, which is the lowest since 2018. So, what they're saying here is that the loans that are taken out for things like uh business uh uh business development uh mostly residential, the lowest since 2018. And that's obviously precoid um even though December it beat the PBOC the people's bank of China announcing targeted monetary policy easing again. So they talk about from the asset side amid the property market adjustment which let me translate from the asset side with amid the property market adjustment the housing crash that says housing crash the private se sector including households and firms showed insignificant willingness to add leverage translate that the people are unwilling to take out more debt because they're under so much that is strangling them. Next sentence. While government bond issuance was ramped up to stabilize leverage in the economy, the e the the government is issuing more debt on top of things to try to loan out to people that they're not taking because they're full. They just can't eat any more of the debt. So money that used to go into real estate now, so this is not happening. They're taking out of the real estate. They're getting out of their deals and they're now repositioning those into risk assets and stocks, gold as well. That's why we're seeing what's happened happen the appetite for real estate which was the number one thing that Chinese people bought for decades. >> Yeah. They would buy people Chinese some middle class Chinese would have two or three homes. Five. >> That was their savings. That was their retirement. That was their 401k. >> Yeah. So, Chinese authorities tightened rules on margin financing, signaling this unease over the pace of the rally. So, they're really concerned now that all of a sudden money is being utilized and borrowed for stocks. So, they're trying to increase that. Under the new rule, investors may must now provide margin equal to the full value of the securities they buy on credit, up from a previous 80% threshold. Kind of interesting. So, this is a whole big issue. They're trying to cool off this market. So, one of the problems that China has is because a recent uh report came out talking about the population in China. You remember they had uh a one child policy for some time. >> Yeah. That Yeah. They've never really recovered from it. They didn't because uh they tried to restart it and already you ingrained all this and made people comfortable with the notion of uh you know one child it was okay. It was societal this is from a societal standpoint. It was very um uh you know well established and they went from the number one populated country in the world to number two behind India >> 1.4 million billion. I used to go to China quite a quite a lot and I would go into the uh some of the cities you'd go to these malls talking about malls and there were these a lot of these couples which were all it was still during the one China policy and they'd have their one child with them in a well behaved by the way the Chinese kids are always well behaved in public [snorts] and uh and you could see that they had there's a mom and a dad and the Chinese normally like to have a lot of kids but they had the one child cuz that's all they could have. And you could just see that the kid was spoiled to to to an extreme >> and the right thing, the right, you know, little spoiled but well behaved. >> Yeah. Well, they were well behaved whether spoiled or not. I think I could be wrong. Maybe it was they were more well behaved, but they were super spoiled. And that this the spoiling of a bunch of, you know, uh only ch children. I I don't see how that could benefit the culture. I just didn't see I was always kind of shaking my head about it. >> So, you're thinking that more than one child would have been better for the in the long haul for the kids? >> Yeah. And for this culture, for the Chinese culture, >> well, they ended that and after the one child policy, um now the new government is pushing towards more births. Right. So, the birth rate in 2025 was 5.63 children per 1,000 people. Obviously, there's no such thing as a 63 of of a child, but it's the it's the it's the birth rate. It's it's the average um amount of births per thousand people, right? It's the lowest on record since 1949. So, what the government is doing is they're trying to promote having kids. What are they doing? They're doing things like uh cash subsidies. They're taxing the the a high tax on condoms. >> Wow. That's kind of a non-traditional way of >> very nontraditional way, right? >> That's very funny. >> Eliminating attacks on matchmakers and eliminating tax on daycare centers. So, they're they're doing everything they can there. >> Yeah. Well, you know, you get the pendulum going in one direction and you just start a phenomenon, change the culture, which this did, and you end up with I don't want a bunch of kids. Well, they just give away tequila. That'll do it. Yeah. Give everybody, you know, five, six, six, six oysters a week >> and a bottle of tequila should do it with the worm or the messcal. Anyway, bank earnings, uh, generally pretty good. We saw a lot of bank earnings come out last well many of them you know JB Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, the list goes on. Capital One, Capital One had a bit of a problem uh after earnings due to the fact that the 10% max uh credit card interest rate that's being proposed and being that's that's last week's news though. I guess we're on this week's news already, right? That was so last week. Um yield curve is helping out the banks in a big way, right? the steepening yield curve where the differential uh the the net interest margin they earn as the uh differential between >> the uh the loans and the the the uh CDs or the money in money out. Um Goldman saw a profit jump about 12% from a year earlier from 4.62 billion >> or about $14 a share on gains across all its capital markets businesses. Morgan Stanley reported fourth quarter results that exceeded Wall Street also on the back of a strong revenue from its wealth management business. So they went kind of different directions by the way. You know uh Meil Lynch has uh which was bought by Bank of America has a big wealth management business. Um Morgan Stanley huge years ago really went full barrel into the wealth management business. And as market they're they're susceptible to market swings. As the markets move up, obviously, you know, they do well. They just get the benefit of higher fees on a higher asset base. So that's going on. Fed, you want to talk about the Fed? What's going on there? The handicapping of who's going to be the next Fed uh Fed chair. >> Yeah. What's the latest on this? >> It looks like Hasset's out. Asset said, you know, um I agree with President Trump when he said last week that maybe Hasset's better in the current position he's in. As said, you know, I think he's right. Maybe maybe maybe President Trump is right. What a freaking what a what a what a brown-nosing sap. Brownsing sap. I mean, I got to tell you with this particular commentary from him where he said, "I think I agree with President Trump that I should stay in my position. I believe that he would be a horrible pick for Fed Chair." >> Well, I thought he was going to be a horrible pick anyway. >> Right. With a with a ill-fitting collar. Yeah, you got the Yeah, cuz right the six size neck he doesn't have. >> It's a size 14 neck with a size 18 collar. >> Now, the front runners are going to be Rick Reer and Kevin Worsh. >> Yeah, I don't know anything about them. >> Rick Reer's interesting. He's uh the he runs trillions of dollars of bonds at Black Rockck. Smart guy. >> Oh, a Black Rockck guy. Oh, great. >> Now, I don't think that will go. But Worsh is an interesting play. If wars can kiss some serious ass from now till then uh and stay the line and talk about possible rate cuts and things of that nature, but yet be a very focused Fed official kind of guy, I think he'd be a very good pick. He's experienced, he's smart, and by the way, all of a sudden, uh Trump says that he's not going to be firing he's not going to be firing Powell. Why would he fire Powell at this point? He's like, what? Had to wait two a month and a half, two months. He's gone anyway. >> Yeah. Yeah. >> It would be idiotic. >> Maybe he wants Powell to resign. >> I don't know. >> Powell's not going to resign either. >> Yeah. All right. Inflation. I don't know if we >> He picked Powell in the first place. >> Oh, I thought that was over. We talked about that 100 times. No. >> Yeah. And it's just so it's gling that he picks a guy and the guy stays in office through Biden. So because he's I guess because he didn't quit under Biden in a huff, he decides he's no good. But he's the one who picked him. It's just beyond me. This this his >> the whole thing is weird that he didn't he's cut rates three times in a market that probably didn't need the rate cuts or an environment that didn't need the rate cuts. Um who was talking about a 1% somebody's talking about a 1% Oh, uh Lutnick Howard Lutnick was talking about a 1% cut. All these things you know are are interesting but the fact is we still have inflation. Consumer price index increased.3% in December. Food rents were the main drivers of the inflation. Food prices surged 7% the equivalent of 8.4% if you analyze it. So there is definitely yeah egg prices are down. By the way if any economist comes to me and talks to me ever about egg prices I'm gonna punch him in the face. [laughter] >> Egg prices. It is the dumbest thing to talk about egg prices coming down, you know, uh, 50 60% when we knew during the time that we saw egg prices move up, which by the way, egg prices are not a significantly important part of the overall CPI inflation calculation. Can we get that straight? But because egg prices shot up so much, why it was because of a culling of the bird within >> bird flu phony baloney. So, it wasn't that anybody was trying to push up prices, >> but it was in an inflationary market that they stuck out, but it wasn't because of the fact that everybody was making omelets or or strawberry salon or making a a a a uh uh baked Alaska. It wasn't that. It was because there was a culling of the birds due to bird flu which caused no eggs. Right. Will you agree with me with this? >> Yeah. I'm I'm I'm totally con Yeah, I'm on board with this. I think the whole egg price thing was a was a ruse. It >> a total ruse. Total ruse. >> So now they're back down. Everybody's all happy. But put that aside. Fact is we still have food prices going up substantially. >> The beef in particular. >> Yep. I heard that I was talking with somebody today that that that we ran some numbers. It leveled off a little bit, which is good, but it's still high. Still high. Uh Boeing, good news with Boeing outs sold Airbus last year for the first time since 2018. And Boeing stock uh made an all-time high last week. So that's good. Yeah, it this stuns me. What stuns you? Well, I always thought just the Boeing mediocre quality control and all the rest of it was going on. Time after time, planes crashing and the doors flying off and all the rest of Boeing was was done. They were the main issue there was that they were allowed to it was it was the the the fox watching the hen house where >> well they've gone back to that >> they have quietly right where they could do their own certifications. Yeah. >> Which is pretty amazing to me that the government allowed for that. Don't Don't you find that amazing? >> Yeah, I do find it amazing when you compare it to the government requiring fishery or fishers to have a inspector on their ship that the fishery guys have or the fishermen have to pay for, which I still think is going on when the government could just as soon have their own inspectors and have Boeing pay for them. So they're kind of neutral a little bit. It would be the amount of money being spent on it would be about the same. It would save the government from having to pay for the inspections, but no, they just let Boing do the whole thing however however they want to. It makes no sense to me. >> Record orders >> showing no ability to do this. What? >> Record orders. Record. >> Yeah, record orders. Yeah. Like there was there was there was an Alaska Airlines that a huge I mean enormous order came in like like a 100 planes or something. Crazy numbers. That's a lot of planes from Boeing. You get 737 whatever it is being ordered again after that was the main culprit. >> Yeah. >> You know the door blowing off was weird. That was just a endemic of some very bad >> Well, they bought the company that was the subcontractor that did the doors and so they think that'll fix things. >> Quiet it down. >> But they used to have that company. They that was a spin-off. I mean, this I keep every time I watch Boeing and and their machinations, I just have no faith in that. I would never invest in them. I don't care how high the stock goes. >> There's two companies, two main companies that make planes in the world. I mean, yes, there's there's others. There's smaller ones for the private jet. Small >> the Chinese will come along. We're going to get some >> probably some BYD air aerospace >> electric. >> I don't know. They're going to be electric. Maybe with the new silver anode batteries. >> Maybe a hybrid. What about a hybrid plane? >> One with a very long extension cord. Yeah, I I'm not u looking forward to a anything other than a jet. >> Yep. A couple more things. Bond vigilantes are back. We said that um that the 10-year yield on uh the the um JGB is or not 10 year 40-year yield is 4.3%. But here's something else that's interesting. This is this is something I don't think that was bargained for the uh one of the reasons that our bonds now and by the way four no our our 10ear yield is 4.3% now US 10year yield is 4.3% 40year-old on the uh uh JGBs is 4.3% as well but the Danish pension operator said its existing US treasuries um are going to be sold they're exiting it over financial concerns tied to America's budget shortfall I think that is a very timely discussion, don't you? They're going to sell our bonds now. They only have about 100 billion. 100 million, sorry, 100 million, which by the way is nothing to speak of. It doesn't >> No, it's not a big deal. >> It's nothing. I could trade 100 million treasuries tomorrow. So, that's not a big amount, >> but they're going to get rid of them. And this is probably amongst the tensions over Greenland. Now the question is while these are very it's a very small number what if what if the other countries that are seeing the tariffs and that are trying to stop this whole Greenland takeover in Europe also say you know what we're going to start slowing our role here too. I don't know if that's mutually assured destruction. I don't know, but that could be interesting and really tick our bonds higher, which would really send things into a real big problem because one of the things they're banking on is the reissuing of debt and buying new debt, uh, quantitative easing, as we talked about, where where they're not letting the, you know, mini version. They're not buying new bonds on the on with extra money, but any bonds that roll off and mature, they're rebying, putting back into the into the into the into the process. Now, with that, what's interesting is the more bonds we have, well, the more we have to uh pay for the financing, right? The debt service. And with with the debt service going up and up and things like no tax on certain amount of tips, no tax on certain amount of um overtime uh with the amount of stimulus we have, you know, it causes our bonds now to be even on shaker territory. I would not be surprised if a few other countries do this and then we see one of the rating services come in and talk about like a credit watch negative on the US. I wouldn't be surprised. Well, that would be some uh some piss poor decision making, I think. >> But it's be it will be games play against the the potential for the tariffs. >> Yeah. Well, Trump can back off of those tariffs at the drop of a hat. >> That's true. And he will, by the way. >> Yeah, he will. He will because he always does. >> Yeah. So, I think what's going to end up happening is he'll talk about something like, hey, like maybe tomorrow even I'm not kidding. Or the next day, you know, I'm here in Davos. have some really constructive things. >> It'll be the speech will tell us everything we need to know. >> You know that we have some constructive meetings and uh we're going to postpone these until we can finalize our discussions making it look like the terrorist threat push the discussion. So whatever last thing. >> Yeah, maybe. Although I believe he's going to, you know, [ __ ] and moan more than he's going to be consiliatory. And he's also going to do material cuz he he an audience like this, he has to do, you know, material by I mean material, I mean com comedy material. >> Mhm. >> Which he loves to do in a big audience, especially international audience because he just thinks he is funny and uh he thinks he's funny, too. So, which is bad, but [laughter] he is he is people who think they're funny usually is not good, but he is funny. And he'll do a bunch of funny stuff up there and he'll get a lot of attention. And whether anything comes of it, I don't know. We'll see. >> We'll see. >> Might be dead serious the whole time. >> Maybe. I doubt it. >> I doubt it. >> Last uh item on this list, hedge funds. Hedge fund investors posted uh gains of about 12.6% last year. Their best return since 2009. What's interesting about hedge funds, people don't realize and recognize that they're in for the long haul. Uh, a lot of these hedge funds, there are some of these that are stock trading based that do very well, but many of them are hedged, have short positions, have hedge outs. So, 12.6% not a bad year. It's less than the averages. Hedge funds are not usually necessarily in in in totality are not built to beat an index. They beat they're there to have consistent good returns over years. uh runs uh funds run by companies like De Shaw, Millennium Management uh posted doubledigit returns. Bridgewwater Pure Alpha scored a 34% gain and uh hedge funds actually had inflows of $71 billion during the first three months of last year. A major reversal after decades of outflows. That's kind of interesting because there's been a lot of outflows from two places. one hedge funds, two mutual funds, all into ETFs or places like um like what I do advisory. They're pretty interesting, >> I think. But it's time. Let's get over to this little darling. This is a game that we play. It's not a solicitation to buy or sell any security. It's not a recommendation of any kind. Nothing on the show should be considered investment advice or a recommendation. If you choose to invest in any of the stocks mentioned, you should know that it may carry risk along with the risk of a loss of principle. You should also seek out professional financial advice for your particular situation. We assume no risk as these are not to be considered recommendations. Horowitz accompanied myself or John Cavoric may invest in any of the securities mentioned and we'll disclose that on the website under the weekly stock pick section. You can go to dhunplug.com and see all the names we discussed in the segment along with the performance information from the date discussed as well as any additional important disclosures. All right. All right. >> Yeah. Looking at we [clears throat] have a couple of interesting things here. Uh I think the most interesting is my short >> on into it. >> Good stuff. Look at that. >> Which is just picked what two shows ago and it's already up 20%. Again, I'm I'm proving my thesis that you can short insider trading uh if you look at the chart and try to figure out what's what what's wrong with this picture, >> but >> and I I think this is a good example. >> You've done this a few times. Uh well, that's the only one on the list, interestingly enough. >> Yeah. The only >> short the only short. >> Yeah. Yeah. That's the only short on the list and it's up. But but since since the mid part of last year, we picked BYU, the >> uh let's see here. Um let's just go with the let's go from December, shall we? >> We got Target as a miracle stock if it ever came back up 21%. >> Uh Synopsis up 15%. That was about uh Nvidia buying them or partnering with them, etc. >> Yeah, >> BYU Chinese AI up 19%. Uh the 1231 pick of Global X Defense Tech, the defense stock ETF up 17.95%. And Gabelli is just dead money right now. >> Yeah, dead money on Gabelli in into it up uh is the top is the winner in that group up 209. Uh other stuff on there. Uh expected L3 Harris is way up. Um the G the uh Li Liy one was the one that kind of caught me off. I got I think I got lucky with that one. >> I think you you could possibly get luckier if in fact they come out with a pill that is really you know that hits. So, so the semiglutide which is the um wgoi which is the uh uh ompic if you will is one receptor. >> Yeah. Lily's tepid. >> There's three now. >> There's another one coming out with three. >> Right now it's two is the big one which is the >> and it may may come out in pill form which and Medicare is paying for it. There's a lot of good things happening with all this. >> Yeah. Trying to kill us. Yeah, if the CO shot didn't kill us, this will. >> It's about right. >> So, uh, >> do you have a big for this week? I have nothing. >> I do. I do. I'm I'm getting on the silver bandwag. I'm getting the silver bandwagon. >> And I I I'll put this on as momentum. It's the top American company in that business. Uh, HAC Highfra, I'm sorry. Hraftoft H >> Highfra Mining. HYMC. Uh, and I, this is a momentum play. Uh, the CEO was on one of the, uh, >> 23% today. Do you know that? >> Yeah, I know. >> Wow. >> It's skyrocketing. And and there's and they and the woman who's the CEO, who's a sharp operator, she says, "Well, this is interesting. The stock's been skyrocketing because I we we have really good news that we're going to roll out later." >> Really? >> Yeah. So I I you know it's too it's expensive this stock but uh when you got a something taking going to the moon over the moon. >> Yeah. >> Uh I think it's probably worth uh putting on the on the game anyway. >> I like it. All right. We'll add that and uh we will then uh watch all the the the fun things to watch. I mean who watch TV anymore when we can watch all the shenanigans that are going on in the in the world and the markets right now. >> Yeah. or just feeds from Minneapolis. >> Oh, the horror show in Minne known as Minneapolis. That's some crazy. >> All right, >> I'll see you next week. >> All right, next week. >> All right, bye. >> You've been listening in on a conversation with John [music] C. D'vorak and Andrew Horowitz. Hope to be with you again soon. Bye-bye. >> Now, I'm not broke, but badly bent. I'm not down to my last scent [music] cuz I got a dollar, but it's my last dollar bill. Yes, sir. In my pocket there's a dance. All my dough is nearly spent, but I got a dollar and it's my last dollar bill. Oh, I'd love just one more buck fortune left me by [music] chance. Now, here's a hint. I feel like a men. You can hardly tell by a glance. I don't care. No millionaire can give me the Isis stack [music] cuz I got a dollar. My last dollar bill. >> [music] >> This podcast is intended forformational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice. Investing involves risk including the possible loss of principle and past performance is not indicative of future results. The views and opinions expressed are those of the hosts and the guests and may not necessarily reflect those of Horowitis Company Inc. an investment advisor registered with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration with the SEC does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Horowits Company is properly registered or is excluded from registration requirements. Any mention of thirdparty companies, products, or services is provided forformational purposes only and does not constitute an endorsement. 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DHUnplugged #787: The Elitists Convene
Summary
Transcript
Hello and welcome to D'vorak Horowitz Unplugged, an hour-long discussion of activity in the financial markets around the world featuring [music] columnist John C. D'vorak and money manager Andrew Horowitz. [music] This conversation is casual and unrehearsed. Let's join John and Andrew now. [music] >> I'm John Cavoric once again. >> Yeah. And I'm Andrew Horowitz. Hi. >> 20th of January. We're running through the month. >> Yeah. >> of 2026. It's going to be a fast year. >> Going to be a fast year. It is. It's going to be uh some good times, good things. You know, I had um uh a pro I don't want to call it a procedure done. A um my wife's like, you know, you got those like dark spots from tanning, you know, on your face. You should get this thing done with a laser. I'm like, okay. I've had that done before years ago. I'll do it again if you want. It's called BBL. So, I look up this BBL. >> What's DBL stand for? >> BBL. like B as in big big Larry. I look it up and I go, "Show me before and after pictures of BBL." And all I get is these images on the internet of these butts. These >> Brazilian buttlft. [laughter] >> A Brazilian buttlft. I'm like, I'm not getting that. What is this PBL thing? I'm not getting the Brazilian buttlft. >> I guess it's also broadband laser, maybe. I guess that's what it stands for. So, I got I got that done yesterday. It looked like uh that I put my head in a toaster. >> Yeah. You would get burned. It's burning. It just burns you up. Burns it. This is a chemical. They do it with uh liquid nitrogen, too. It's the same thing. >> Yeah. It it it's it's a it was a fun event. So, anyway, I'm sitting here right now with my face a little bit peeling and and this and this this goop on it right now. That's what I'm living with. And I went out today. Everybody's like, "Oh, looks like they got tan in Mexico." I'm like, "No, not exactly. Tomorrow will look worse, I'm sure." Anyway, here we go again. We got tariffs. We got retaliatory tariffs. We got uh uh grudging tariffs. We have uh mad at you tariffs. And then we have people selling bond. A lot of things to talk about. And and right now going on at this moment, >> although they may be sleeping right now or or partying for that matter, is the Davos economic confab where the elitists are meeting >> and supposedly making the rules for the rest of us. >> Yeah. And skiing a lot. >> The skiing, they're eating, they're drinking, they're having cigars, they're talking, they're >> hookers. >> Oh, hookers and blow. >> What you What do you you think? >> Well, you're the one that brought it up. There's lot. Yeah, there's there's always usually some prime time story about the hookers in Davos. >> Don't you think that after the whole Epstein file things they're being a little bit more careful? >> Well, okay. So, they're a little they'll be more they'll they'll dress down a little bit. >> This is my It's my sister. >> I mean, you don't go to Davos for what? >> Oh, they got a hobnob. All the big mucky mucks are there. Everybody that likes to be in front of a camera is there. All the Bloombergs, the CNBC's, the NBC's, all you know, all of them have their booths set up. You go bounce from place to place to place to place to tell them all about what you think. >> It's like social media for those that could be asked to come. >> You can't figure it out, >> right? We're going to talk about suicide coaches tonight and hedge funds. Finally, a good year. Now, here we are, as you mentioned, Tuesday, the 20th of January, and I feel like a broken record because guess what? Silver and gold are at all-time highs again. Big moves today on silver. >> Yeah, silver's on its way. >> On its way. It's It's gone. It's It's catapulted. It's rocket shift. >> It's heading to 200. >> It's quite an amazing thing to watch as all of the things that happen. And now I'm starting to get calls from clients about silver, >> which is not always a good thing. >> No, they could have probably called a week ago or two or a month. If you call a year ago, then you got something. You got a client that spotted that early. But it's only recent. They figured out that they don't have enough silver to supply demand. It's a supply demand thing. >> It is pretty amazing that it took this long to figure out something that seemingly everybody says was so obvious. Was it so obvious? No. What was obvious >> that there wasn't enough silver to supply for all the industrial use, the technology use and all that. That silver was a better conductor. But there was also a a a major breakthrough in silver's usage uh in the uh silver carbon anode for lithium ion batteries which would make the battery last pretty much forever. >> Yeah. And the the the lower heat >> it does a couple of things. it. There's no dendrites and it makes the battery last thus the battery doesn't fall apart or catch on fire and uh it makes it so it can charge like 10 times faster than it can already charge. It's just a huge deal. So everybody's going to Samsung has this invention. is a patent, but everyone's going to license it and you're going to end up with all these batteries with these uh with silver in them and it's going to just drain the silver supply, >> which is >> reason why drained. It's pre- drained. >> It's pre- drained. So now now they have to just uh keep on going after. Plus, it's also a precious metal in that it has a place in the system for when times are there's no there's no there's no mystery why silver and gold are going up right now. It's it's silver has multiple functions. Gold is also but silver has multiple and some very very newly found function and capabilities and use fact use uh use rationale and at the same time gold and silver though used as a place to find uh calm and a potential storm and that's why the central banks are buying them up so readily. So both those things happening. Um, we had a big sell-off today on the heels of this is the day after Martin Luther King Day when markets in the United States were closed. But over the weekend, Trump decided to throw some new tariffs up. You know, said, you know, you guys, you eight countries or so, and we'll get into the details of who they are. Uh, you're not following along with the game plan here. We want Green Greenland. That's it. I want it. There's a great meme. Uh there was a lady kind of cartoonish and uh uh the back of Trump's head sitting at a table. It was kind of a young Trump. And the lady says and and young Trump is is is is taking his fork and he's his spoon. He's trying to go after some food. And the lady says the mother says no Greenland until you finish your Venezuela. >> [laughter] >> So, >> so there there was these there were protests all over the country um today because it was the anniversary of Trump's uh >> Oh, were they wearing the [ __ ] hats? >> No, no, there were just a there was funny Mimi pointed this out. She was driving around the area and then I went out to to get the to go to the post office and there were there there's two places in the uh uh area Elserto that have um where they where these protesters show up and she me made the point of saying there's not one protester in Berkeley the entire town of radical Berkeley but the Elserita where there's all these retirees they're all out and I you know I took a few photos and they're uh all retirees. They're all in their 60s,7s and 80s and maybe older and with holding and yelling and screaming and there's probably maybe a hundred of them. Quite a few actually for a for you know just a small town and they uh one of the big signs that cracked me up was hands off Greenland. >> Yeah. G and Greenlanders were wearing the MAGA hats. >> And so, yes, the Greenlanders love the idea. But so, in other words, some retired old woman >> in Elserto, California is just concerned as hell that she has to come out and protest with a sign that says Hands Off Greenland. I'm telling you, I I laugh for at least 10 minutes. >> Well, you know, so silly. >> Do you know what the MAGA hats stand for in Greenland? >> What? Make America go away. [laughter] >> That's what they have. The make America go away. >> I've seen I've watched the YouTubers that managed to go there and the Greenlanders would like the idea of the Danish people have not treated the Greenlanders very well. They've sterilized them that there was a sterilization program until 1995. The population of Greenland dropped from 150,000 to about 60. Today, no thanks to the sterilization program that was not welcome. uh and they've done nothing for the Greenland economy that they don't like Denmark. If if anyone really did some real research on this, the Greenlanders would love to be, you know, a colony. >> You know, it's interesting what I thought you were going to go after and what Mimi was really thinking about when she was talking about the noticing these elderly people was that they were paid for. That that's why that group of people were out. that maybe I don't know you want to say Soros whoever it is whoever was stirring the pot was >> you mean getting a little extra spending cash >> yeah was putting money saying hey you know we'll give you 50 bucks here's a sign walk around >> yeah that could be >> you know we'll close we'll close the restaurant and and open up at 4:00 for dinner for you for a week you don't have to fight the early >> wouldn't surprise me but there was nobody in Berkeley protest they're supposed to take the day off there was some movement to do that >> the 20th. Oh, take the day off. We're all going to take the day off. We're going to show them >> and we're going to make the economy grind to to a halt. And of course, that didn't happen. >> Mhm. >> And we're going to end up uh talking about Netflix tonight as well, where the saga continues and Netflix earnings came out after the bell tonight. So, there's some surprise going on there. But let's talk about Davos. I want to talk about this. The uh again, this is the elitists. They come, they sit, they're in their furs, they they have their pipes, they're, you know, uh, gonna solve the world problems. The Bilderbergs and, uh, the Kennedys are all there doing their thing. So over the years, what's happened is that the conversations that we see happening by the these people, not not necessarily the not necessarily the hedge fund managers or the people that are in the I in in the actual game, but the others, the people who, you know, like a Larry Summers would have been there if it wasn't for his shenan shenanigans. Uh >> yeah, he's he's not welcome. um or or some of these other even uh even uh Ray Dalio. I mean, God bless him, you know, Bridgewater, but some of these guys that try to push their ideals and ideas on the public constantly and some of them are good. I get it. But there's that group, you know who I'm talking about, right? The the group that's always pushing their ideals and Yeah. And >> what do you do? >> You know, even a Bill Gates, you know, these names, they're all there. We have Trump is going. Xiin Ping is supposedly going not going. Nahendra Modi not going from from um from India. Zalinski is going. Why is he going? What does he have to do with the economic outlook of the world is I guess maybe something. >> Absolutely. Well, he just wants to get out of the country. >> Oh, and >> skiing needs to go some skiing. >> Couple things. First of all, >> get killed in Ukraine. He and Jensen Dwong, can they find a new outfit? This is like the days when pretty much when Steve Jobs would come out in the black turtleneck and the black pants all the time. >> That's it. That's all they wore. They had to be in that. That's the Steve Jobs costume. >> It was a It was a uh uh costume. >> It was a costume. Jensen Wong does it with the leather jacket, you know, and and so does Zalinsky with his mock military outfit, >> right? >> You you wouldn't recognize him. Literally, if Zilinsky came in wearing a suit or looking in in I don't know, in a short sleeve shirt, something different. You could walk down the street, you'd never know it was him. >> Well, maybe that's his goal. >> Maybe that's what it is. So when he goes into hiding be like looking for the short guy with the black uh kind of rough sweater on. Anybody see? Nope. Nope. Nope. Just the guy in the green sweater over there. But that's not him, is it? Kushner's going. Bessant's going. Little Marco's going. He's going everywhere. Marco. Marco Rubo. He's getting He's got a lot going on. He gained the trust of Trump, didn't he? >> He what? >> He gained the trust of Trump. >> Oh, yeah. Well, absolutely. Are you kidding? Well, Trump needed a guy like him. I've said this on the No Agenda show, which is our >> podcast that runs every uh >> Thursday and Sunday. >> Thursday, Sunday, sorry. >> Thursday and Sunday at two. Today's Tuesday. So, uh yeah, that you you've you've listened to it occasionally. >> Occasionally. I love it. The best. >> Uh we we've talked about this on the show that Marco is set up to be the king of South America. I mean, he speaks fluent Western Hemisphere style Spanish, which is slightly different than what they speak in Europe. And uh he can go down there and talk the talk in in the native language with all these South American country people except for Brazil. >> Oh, Brazil speaks Portuguese. >> Yeah. >> Which is confusing by the way. >> Why is that? >> Similar but not the same. >> Right. So, uh, Larry Frink, uh, is the interim co-chair of the, um, the group the, uh, World Economic Forum, >> which is the overseer of this. I >> like the way he worked his way into that job. >> Well, he got it because some guy was taken out on accusations of wrongdoing. >> Yeah. I wonder who orchestrated that. Larry Frink. I wonder, let's ask Larry. Larry. And again, the CEOs that you would think of, Jensen Wong, Sanjay Nadella, you know, these guy, the guys that love the the limelight are there. Plus, many of these people know that if they get into somehow see Trump, whatever they need and whatever they say will come true. That's how it works, doesn't it? >> I We'll see. So, due out Wednesday, um there's a bunch of reports from the that's tomorrow from the World Economic Forum, a big report that they're going to produce and then they get to share. Everybody's going to talk about it's about the geopolitical confrontation being the top concern this year. Each year they come out with the top concerns by all these fellas and gals that are supposedly the biggest, the brightest, the smartest in the world. most connected. You have things like rising inflation's a big issue. Economic downturn is a big issue. Asset bubble is a big issue. High debt burden is a big issue. You remember a few years ago it was like climate, global warming, uh uh electric grid, uh you know, alternative energy. Now it's just asset bubbles, high debt burdens. There's a chart here that I thought was pretty cool that now shows their uh the global risk perception of the survey that's going to come out. One of the things that's going to come out um this is out on the 14th. This is a good chart from CNBC. Yeah. >> So, did you notice they changed their logo by the way? CNBC. >> Well, of course they got spun off, didn't they? >> They got thrown out. Spun. >> [laughter] >> thrown out seems to be they got to be taken out of the whole deal. Yeah. >> So, so go through this just just hit your hit some of the high spots that you're looking at when you just glance at this. By the way, you can see this over on DH Unplugged episode number 787 under the show notes over on dhplugged.com. This this uh this table chart uh infographic. >> Yeah, it's quite it's a good one. Everyone should have. Now, this is the thing. the the the two top items are the ones that were about Trump. Uh geoeconomic conf uh uh confrontation is number one that means uh tariffs and do what we do do what we tell you to do kind of thing. The second one though which is being cropped up a lot in the conversation. Yak yak yak. They keep bringing it up. misinformation slashdisinformation and this is the this is the this is an attack on the social networks and AI and all the rest of it because what they what they mean by doing something about misinformation and disinformation is let's get our our messaging focused on what we want people to think is true >> right everything else is fake news >> everything else is fake news what we say. So they're they're very concerned about getting back to that which is not possible anymore. >> The rest of it like social societal polarization and extreme weather events. Uh I don't know the extreme weather events events seems like a stretch. >> So there's a two-year list and there's short-term two-year list and a long-term 10-year list. I think this is pretty interesting though. Uh I I think that there we're back to the long term. Number one is extreme weather events. The number four on the short term is also extreme weather events. So everybody's worried about earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, uh you know, bad cold snaps, hot snaps, the whole >> Yeah. And this of course is right on the heels of James O'Keeffe actually being at the WF. He's the guy with the hidden camera that goes around and gets people to say stupid stuff usually or usually has a girl posing as a you batting her eyes and getting guys to say stuff. Uh he's already got a bunch of people saying that the weather is being rigged by chemical by geoengineering already and a whole bunch of people have come out with that and this will be in the news for the next couple days. So we're seeding the clouds with various chemicals or some other kind of methodology to change the weather. >> Yeah. So you can have extreme weather events. >> So So to wait to to create extreme weather events or to >> Yeah. Yeah. >> Why would we want to create extreme weather events? >> So you can use it as as leverage for political >> stuff, you know. >> Oh, control the masses. and and and behind all this is Al Gore. That's what I'm gonna hear next. >> No, I he hadn't gotten I don't think Al Gore is there, but Al Gore is definitely a a party to it. I would guess either or he's just as dumb as he sounds. >> It's funny because it's the second time this week I've heard about the cloud seating. And there's a great show to watch. Um I can't remember the name of it, but uh it's it's with a train, a perpetual train. Uh, I'll get in a second. Uh, uh, >> you talking about the movie? >> Yeah. What is it called? >> Um, >> uh, yeah, I was thinking about that movie the other day. >> The cold one is Ice Tracker. Cold Tracker. >> Yeah, the whole thing. Uh, yeah, I'll think. It's funny. I can't think of the name either. Um, >> Snowier. >> Snow Piercer. >> Yeah, >> Snow Piercer. There's a series, but the movie is better. Especially when they >> No, no, the series sucks. >> Yeah. Yeah, >> the series. No good. >> No good. Not, >> but the the movie Snowpiercer is a is a fun movie. >> Yeah. >> Especially when they get to the point where it turns out they're all eating bugs. >> I mean, that was the topper. [laughter] Spoiler alert. >> Every movie that has that, the bugs everybody loves, you know. What was the other one? No, that was uh Soilent Green. >> Remember that? >> Eating people. Yeah. >> Eating yourself. Yeah. So, my favorite >> So, Green film for people out there. >> That was what you haven't seen. I mean, I don't know how anyone could have gotten this far in life, even if you're 10, then not see Soil and Green. >> Yeah, so Green is going um anyway, so some interesting things here to check out. That's what's going on right now. We're going to hear about this um very much. Uh next, I think tomorrow Trump is going to talk. One of the big issues is is he going to continue on with the pressure campaign with Greenland? This is a big thing that's going on right now, and it has to do with the markets very much. The idea of course we know is that green land is strategically important for military for security and for other of the natural resources. Um now here's what's interesting. Trump promised 100% probability like a guarantee that it will impo he imposed the tariffs they talked about uh if if he doesn't get Greenland. uh tariffs starting on February 1st at 10% shoot up to 25% on June 1st on Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, and the United Kingdoms, the Netherlands, and Finland. So, supposedly in response to the EU allies moving troops into Greenland. So, >> I I don't understand. Explain this to me. Yeah. He's trying to get >> Greenland from its uh owner, Denmark. Yeah. >> What's the point of the terrorists on all these other guys? Are they are they pressure points? >> It's NATO. It's NATO that that's going to pressure him out, >> right? Isn't that all the NATO countries? Most of them. >> Yeah, they're Yeah, but I don't think there's a lot of countries in NATO that aren't on the list of people he's going to tariff. >> He's These are the ones that have said publicly Well, let me let me go one step further. Macron, who by the way was talking to dollars today in a very weird set of sunglasses. You need to take a look at that. Like blue giant blue reflector sun. >> Yeah. Supposedly his wife punched him in the face and he's got two black eyes. >> Oh god. Again. >> Yeah. [laughter] Didn't that happen? Seriously, once before something. >> I'm just telling you what I heard. So Mron was was all pissy and oh you know we're not going to allow this and this is going to this and you know we can't stand this. He was like the forefront guy when these tariffs come out. So what happens next? Trump says you know what by the way on top of these other tariff 200% tariffs threatened in sh on champagne and on wines coming into the country 200%. >> Yeah. Like l likely I have a seller full of wine. I can I can wait it out. So, but that that's that's where I think, look, I don't want to belabor this point because this the the today was supposed to be a day that potentially the Supreme Court was going to come out with a uh decision on the tariffs. They did not. There's some other dates that may be coming up that they will, but right now they're still not. These are the kind of things that I think hurts his case because the a a retribution type of tariff when somebody says something you doesn't you don't like doesn't help his cause and trying to say the tariffs are for certain security measures etc. We'll see. >> Ah good point. I agree. >> Yeah. Now we have the new B to peace in Gaza. These are all the things that are disrupting the markets right now today in particular. you know, NASDAQ down 2.3%, worst day since like October. Uh, Dow Jones down 850 points. Uh, S&P down 1.9%. And, uh, interestingly, equal weighted S&P was only down 1.4% or so. So, it shows that some of the big leaders led things down. Um but on the board of peace which is the bord of peace of the Gaza Marco Rubio special envoy Steve Wickoff and British prime minister former prime minister Tony Blair and son-in-law Jared Kushner all on this. Supposedly Putin was also invited to be on the board. The purpose of the board to officially the board is mandated to promote stability, restore dependable and lawful governance and secure enduring peace in areas affected or threatened by the conflict. So, we have another place there that's kind of interesting. And the these are I think those are the key issues right now that need to be resolved a bit like what's going to happen in Gaza. Um I don't think we're really worried about Taiwan from a market standpoint. The Japanese yen at 157 158 and the Japanese bond the 40-year hit uh 4% the highest in history. And the reality is the tenure is still way off from where it should be considering the financial condition of of Japan and with a snap election that's going on the current administration if they get that I think it's a week and a half or two if they get the confirmation again the yen is expected to weaken significantly from here. Talk about 170 180 on the yen. >> Why? Uh because they're pretty much not balancing a budget again and they're going to cut taxes on a few different things. Let's see. I thought I had something on this here somewhere. Uh maybe that was China. China. Uh yeah, there's no there's a bunch of things happening within Japan that this particular um this prime minister is said to be pretty stimulative and the weakening of the yen is a probability. And then uh the bond vigilantes are coming in and selling the bonds. You would think that in a in an environment where the Japanese economy is relatively strong considering where it's been and how it's on a trend stronger that the yen would actually come up in value. Or I'll tell you something else. In an environment that has geopolitical uncertainty like we saw with gold and silver rising like crazy, you would think the yen being one of the safe haven currencies, US dollar, yen, and the um the uh Swedish um is croner. What am I thinking? No, no, no. Franker, Frank, Frank, Swiss Frank, Swiss Frank. >> Um Swiss Frank, >> Swiss Frank, that's the one of the other ones, too. You would think though, but no, they're weakening the yen dramatically. real concern about what's going to happen there. Back to the Widowmaker trade again, trying to bid against the end going up. They're getting stronger. Uh Saks Fifth Avenue or Sachs, remember that good store? Do you have a shop there? I used to go to the outlet uh Sachs and I had been to the Sachs in New York City. Uh I always thought it was too expensive, but the outlet store was quite reasonable and they had good stuff. >> Yeah, I agree with that. call it fifth on something. I forgot what it was called. Some crazy name. >> Off fifth. >> Off fifth. Yes, exactly. >> So, they're uh entering into chapter 11. Problems really got worse after they agreed to purchase, as we call it in my family, Needless Markup. You know that store? >> Yeah, we had one in San Francisco. >> Yeah. Also known as Neiman Marcus. But Needless Markup was bought. And now to add some more, >> you know, that's a funny story. Never. I never Every time I went in there, it was never really that busy. >> Well, can't be. Nobody's standing at the register. They can't afford to pay. I went in there for I looked at a sport jacket one time. Like, what is this? Is this a serial number or is this the price, >> you know? Yeah. Well, that was Yes. In fact, just a shirt, a men's men's dress shirt, >> like $500 >> is imposs Yeah. You couldn't I don't know how anyone bought any of that stuff. >> Yep. That's why they >> I don't think I ever bought anything in my entire life from that store. It's too expensive. >> There was I think many years ago if I remember the story correct. Yeah. I think I bought a suit there. It was like $1,500 for the suit back back when, right? And uh I put it on. It fit great at the time. It was a little bit big, but that was the style, right? It was a really good material. Just laid on you really nicely. Got it altered there and all that. I come home, I tell the wife, she's apoplelectic. Not about in a good way, by the way. Not a good way. So, I had that suit for a number of years, you know, three, four years, whatever. And the kids would always call it, "Dad, are you wearing your million-dollar suit?" That's what they called it all the time, the million-dollar suit. >> What are you wearing? You wearing your million dollar suit? I'm like, "Yeah, I can put that on tonight. I can put that on for this." >> Who is the designer? >> I don't know. It was some Italian dude. I don't remember. It was years ago. It was definitely a name, though. But it was silly. >> Well, the Armani suits from that that you're you're I think you're hinting at were always loose fitting like that. >> Yeah, maybe it was Armani. >> They looked great. >> Yeah, Yubo Yugo Boss was always an expensive one, but that was a slim cut and I've never been that. For a minute I was for a minute was a 12 slim, right? Went right to husky from there. Went from a 12 slim to a Husky. I tell you the story, my mother brought me into a Sears one time, gained a couple of pounds when I was younger. We go into the Husky department in Sears. I'm like, what? What's this? I was like, I don't know, 13 or 12 or maybe 14, whatever it was. 11. I go, what is Husky? She goes, oh, that's for really strong boys. I'm like, oh, great. The Husky department of Sears. >> You got buffaloed. >> Yep. Um, Amazon has filed an objection on Sachs Global, their bankruptcy um on the ground to harm creditors and push the tech company further down the repayment pecking order. See, what happened was that when Sachs bought Needless Markup in December of 2024, Amazon invested $475 million, which now they say is essentially worthless. So, Amazon is threatening uh drastic remedies if Sachs doesn't uh heed its concerns, including the appointment of an examiner or a trustee. Now, you're probably thinking, why the hell would Amazon do such a thing if invest $475 million in Sachs at >> Yeah, that's what I was thinking. >> Yeah, at the time they thought that Sachs would start selling it products on Amazon's website and the tech company Amazon was going to offer technology and logistics expertise. But on the turn, Amazon's attorneys now say that SAS continuously failed to meet its budgets, burned through hundreds of millions of dollars in less than a year, and ra ran up additional hundreds of millions of dollars in unpaid invoices owned owed to its retail partners. So, I don't think there's any surprise here with the, you know, the companies like um even even the Dillards, the Kohl's, you know, the these these company Macy's, they're they're they're doing all sorts of things to try to pretend things are okay. It's pathetic. >> Yep. So, it's going to be a big big uh >> the era of the big depart American the overseas. They're still doing well, but uh the days of the big American department stores are over. >> Yeah. They're now pickle ball and pedel complexes. >> What happened? >> What happened was that the I'll tell you what happened. One of the big thing I I I tell you what happened because I did a little bit of research into this and I was reading a bunch of about this because back in the day where did you go for a social outing? Went to the mall as a kid. You grew up in the malls. >> Yeah. A lot of kid mall kids drove you to the malls. >> You hung out with your friends and walked the mall. Your parents are like, "I'll pick you up in two hours." You're like, "Okay." They wal around bought stuff in the malls. It was a meet in a greet place. Where do people meet now? >> Online. >> Yep. So that killed the whole structure of what it was. Then on top of that, you had the um the situation where people got used to buying online. No longer did they need to try on things because you can get 14 different things from Amazon. Try them all on and send them all back except one if you want free of charge. >> Yeah. That that's unbelievable. So the d the the the change in dynamics of how people not only shopped because the mall was not necessarily a place to go shopping. It was but it was a place to first socialize and you go to the food courts you spend the day. >> A lot of food court stuff. Mrs. Fields cookies are stinking up the place. >> Yep. >> And Andy's pretzels. >> Cinnabun. Cinnabun would be in some of these places and they stink up the place. Oh yeah. And he could always just walk around in circles and get that bourbon chicken sample [laughter] >> over and over again. >> Yeah. Yeah. Bourbon chicken, [laughter] >> which still nobody knows how it's made. It's a mystery how good the mold The bourbon chicken in the mall was always delicious. [laughter] It was dark meat, too, by the way. That's why. >> Yeah, that's why it was good. >> Yeah. Nobody knew. Like, I'll try that. I hate dark meat. Oh, try this. Oh, that's delicious. Yeah, that the dark meat, white meat phenomenon, what you just described is always mystified me. Dark meat is so much tastier. >> So much tastier to cook it and work with it in the kitchen is kind of a night and day experience, right? White meat is clean, white, very little fat. Dark meat, if you get like a just a the thigh, just a boneless thigh, let's say, it's a lot of fat that you got to either cut off or recognize what it is. Yeah, there's some issues with its preparation compared to a chicken breast. >> Yeah. A dry chicken breast versus >> dry chicken breast. Yeah. Get the right adjective. >> Yeah. A dry chicken breast versus a very nice, moist, tasty thigh. Yeah, I agree. And it's interesting how thighs are less expensive. >> Yeah. People want they I don't know what it is. They like that dried chicken. Well, uh, let's talk about suicide coaches, shall we? Have you heard about this phrase? >> No. >> This year, you really saw something pretty horrific, which is the AI models becoming suicide coaches. That's what Mark Benoff is talking about when he was interviewed by Sarah Eisen at the World Economic Forum's flagship conference in Davos, Switzerland. Now, this is the same guy in 2018. He was all over the social media is bad for you. You know, they they social media should be treated like a health issue. Should be regulated like cigarettes. They're addictive. They're not good for you. Now, this is the CEO of Salesforce. I don't know what his angle is on Unless he's being >> Yeah. What is his angle? >> I don't know. I don't know if he's being intellectually honest with this or there's some kind of angle. I don't know like if this is real down to earth. Well, he does have a lot of hospital wings named after himself. So, he does have a health nut, even though if you've ever met him, uh, he's doesn't seem like a guy who's a health nut. >> Are you talking about his body size? >> Well, he's a he's >> bigger fella. >> Yeah, he's a a husky >> and so uh so it's possible that he's just he's just being a good guy. >> Yeah. He says bad things were happening all over the world because social media was fully unregulated, he said. And now you're kind of seeing that play out again with artificial intelligence. I guess there's been some trend that people get on their AI and like help me commit suicide. How would I commit suicide? What's the easiest way to commit suicide? Here I got a green pill, a blue pill, and a and and a red pill. What should I take if if what would somebody take? How what should somebody not take if they didn't want to die and or whatever? You know what I mean? Yeah, it's it's terrible. >> So, it's terrible. Let's go over to China for a minute here. China in 20125, the new yuan loans of 16.27 trillion, which is the lowest since 2018. So, what they're saying here is that the loans that are taken out for things like uh business uh uh business development uh mostly residential, the lowest since 2018. And that's obviously precoid um even though December it beat the PBOC the people's bank of China announcing targeted monetary policy easing again. So they talk about from the asset side amid the property market adjustment which let me translate from the asset side with amid the property market adjustment the housing crash that says housing crash the private se sector including households and firms showed insignificant willingness to add leverage translate that the people are unwilling to take out more debt because they're under so much that is strangling them. Next sentence. While government bond issuance was ramped up to stabilize leverage in the economy, the e the the government is issuing more debt on top of things to try to loan out to people that they're not taking because they're full. They just can't eat any more of the debt. So money that used to go into real estate now, so this is not happening. They're taking out of the real estate. They're getting out of their deals and they're now repositioning those into risk assets and stocks, gold as well. That's why we're seeing what's happened happen the appetite for real estate which was the number one thing that Chinese people bought for decades. >> Yeah. They would buy people Chinese some middle class Chinese would have two or three homes. Five. >> That was their savings. That was their retirement. That was their 401k. >> Yeah. So, Chinese authorities tightened rules on margin financing, signaling this unease over the pace of the rally. So, they're really concerned now that all of a sudden money is being utilized and borrowed for stocks. So, they're trying to increase that. Under the new rule, investors may must now provide margin equal to the full value of the securities they buy on credit, up from a previous 80% threshold. Kind of interesting. So, this is a whole big issue. They're trying to cool off this market. So, one of the problems that China has is because a recent uh report came out talking about the population in China. You remember they had uh a one child policy for some time. >> Yeah. That Yeah. They've never really recovered from it. They didn't because uh they tried to restart it and already you ingrained all this and made people comfortable with the notion of uh you know one child it was okay. It was societal this is from a societal standpoint. It was very um uh you know well established and they went from the number one populated country in the world to number two behind India >> 1.4 million billion. I used to go to China quite a quite a lot and I would go into the uh some of the cities you'd go to these malls talking about malls and there were these a lot of these couples which were all it was still during the one China policy and they'd have their one child with them in a well behaved by the way the Chinese kids are always well behaved in public [snorts] and uh and you could see that they had there's a mom and a dad and the Chinese normally like to have a lot of kids but they had the one child cuz that's all they could have. And you could just see that the kid was spoiled to to to an extreme >> and the right thing, the right, you know, little spoiled but well behaved. >> Yeah. Well, they were well behaved whether spoiled or not. I think I could be wrong. Maybe it was they were more well behaved, but they were super spoiled. And that this the spoiling of a bunch of, you know, uh only ch children. I I don't see how that could benefit the culture. I just didn't see I was always kind of shaking my head about it. >> So, you're thinking that more than one child would have been better for the in the long haul for the kids? >> Yeah. And for this culture, for the Chinese culture, >> well, they ended that and after the one child policy, um now the new government is pushing towards more births. Right. So, the birth rate in 2025 was 5.63 children per 1,000 people. Obviously, there's no such thing as a 63 of of a child, but it's the it's the it's the birth rate. It's it's the average um amount of births per thousand people, right? It's the lowest on record since 1949. So, what the government is doing is they're trying to promote having kids. What are they doing? They're doing things like uh cash subsidies. They're taxing the the a high tax on condoms. >> Wow. That's kind of a non-traditional way of >> very nontraditional way, right? >> That's very funny. >> Eliminating attacks on matchmakers and eliminating tax on daycare centers. So, they're they're doing everything they can there. >> Yeah. Well, you know, you get the pendulum going in one direction and you just start a phenomenon, change the culture, which this did, and you end up with I don't want a bunch of kids. Well, they just give away tequila. That'll do it. Yeah. Give everybody, you know, five, six, six, six oysters a week >> and a bottle of tequila should do it with the worm or the messcal. Anyway, bank earnings, uh, generally pretty good. We saw a lot of bank earnings come out last well many of them you know JB Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, the list goes on. Capital One, Capital One had a bit of a problem uh after earnings due to the fact that the 10% max uh credit card interest rate that's being proposed and being that's that's last week's news though. I guess we're on this week's news already, right? That was so last week. Um yield curve is helping out the banks in a big way, right? the steepening yield curve where the differential uh the the net interest margin they earn as the uh differential between >> the uh the loans and the the the uh CDs or the money in money out. Um Goldman saw a profit jump about 12% from a year earlier from 4.62 billion >> or about $14 a share on gains across all its capital markets businesses. Morgan Stanley reported fourth quarter results that exceeded Wall Street also on the back of a strong revenue from its wealth management business. So they went kind of different directions by the way. You know uh Meil Lynch has uh which was bought by Bank of America has a big wealth management business. Um Morgan Stanley huge years ago really went full barrel into the wealth management business. And as market they're they're susceptible to market swings. As the markets move up, obviously, you know, they do well. They just get the benefit of higher fees on a higher asset base. So that's going on. Fed, you want to talk about the Fed? What's going on there? The handicapping of who's going to be the next Fed uh Fed chair. >> Yeah. What's the latest on this? >> It looks like Hasset's out. Asset said, you know, um I agree with President Trump when he said last week that maybe Hasset's better in the current position he's in. As said, you know, I think he's right. Maybe maybe maybe President Trump is right. What a freaking what a what a what a brown-nosing sap. Brownsing sap. I mean, I got to tell you with this particular commentary from him where he said, "I think I agree with President Trump that I should stay in my position. I believe that he would be a horrible pick for Fed Chair." >> Well, I thought he was going to be a horrible pick anyway. >> Right. With a with a ill-fitting collar. Yeah, you got the Yeah, cuz right the six size neck he doesn't have. >> It's a size 14 neck with a size 18 collar. >> Now, the front runners are going to be Rick Reer and Kevin Worsh. >> Yeah, I don't know anything about them. >> Rick Reer's interesting. He's uh the he runs trillions of dollars of bonds at Black Rockck. Smart guy. >> Oh, a Black Rockck guy. Oh, great. >> Now, I don't think that will go. But Worsh is an interesting play. If wars can kiss some serious ass from now till then uh and stay the line and talk about possible rate cuts and things of that nature, but yet be a very focused Fed official kind of guy, I think he'd be a very good pick. He's experienced, he's smart, and by the way, all of a sudden, uh Trump says that he's not going to be firing he's not going to be firing Powell. Why would he fire Powell at this point? He's like, what? Had to wait two a month and a half, two months. He's gone anyway. >> Yeah. Yeah. >> It would be idiotic. >> Maybe he wants Powell to resign. >> I don't know. >> Powell's not going to resign either. >> Yeah. All right. Inflation. I don't know if we >> He picked Powell in the first place. >> Oh, I thought that was over. We talked about that 100 times. No. >> Yeah. And it's just so it's gling that he picks a guy and the guy stays in office through Biden. So because he's I guess because he didn't quit under Biden in a huff, he decides he's no good. But he's the one who picked him. It's just beyond me. This this his >> the whole thing is weird that he didn't he's cut rates three times in a market that probably didn't need the rate cuts or an environment that didn't need the rate cuts. Um who was talking about a 1% somebody's talking about a 1% Oh, uh Lutnick Howard Lutnick was talking about a 1% cut. All these things you know are are interesting but the fact is we still have inflation. Consumer price index increased.3% in December. Food rents were the main drivers of the inflation. Food prices surged 7% the equivalent of 8.4% if you analyze it. So there is definitely yeah egg prices are down. By the way if any economist comes to me and talks to me ever about egg prices I'm gonna punch him in the face. [laughter] >> Egg prices. It is the dumbest thing to talk about egg prices coming down, you know, uh, 50 60% when we knew during the time that we saw egg prices move up, which by the way, egg prices are not a significantly important part of the overall CPI inflation calculation. Can we get that straight? But because egg prices shot up so much, why it was because of a culling of the bird within >> bird flu phony baloney. So, it wasn't that anybody was trying to push up prices, >> but it was in an inflationary market that they stuck out, but it wasn't because of the fact that everybody was making omelets or or strawberry salon or making a a a a uh uh baked Alaska. It wasn't that. It was because there was a culling of the birds due to bird flu which caused no eggs. Right. Will you agree with me with this? >> Yeah. I'm I'm I'm totally con Yeah, I'm on board with this. I think the whole egg price thing was a was a ruse. It >> a total ruse. Total ruse. >> So now they're back down. Everybody's all happy. But put that aside. Fact is we still have food prices going up substantially. >> The beef in particular. >> Yep. I heard that I was talking with somebody today that that that we ran some numbers. It leveled off a little bit, which is good, but it's still high. Still high. Uh Boeing, good news with Boeing outs sold Airbus last year for the first time since 2018. And Boeing stock uh made an all-time high last week. So that's good. Yeah, it this stuns me. What stuns you? Well, I always thought just the Boeing mediocre quality control and all the rest of it was going on. Time after time, planes crashing and the doors flying off and all the rest of Boeing was was done. They were the main issue there was that they were allowed to it was it was the the the fox watching the hen house where >> well they've gone back to that >> they have quietly right where they could do their own certifications. Yeah. >> Which is pretty amazing to me that the government allowed for that. Don't Don't you find that amazing? >> Yeah, I do find it amazing when you compare it to the government requiring fishery or fishers to have a inspector on their ship that the fishery guys have or the fishermen have to pay for, which I still think is going on when the government could just as soon have their own inspectors and have Boeing pay for them. So they're kind of neutral a little bit. It would be the amount of money being spent on it would be about the same. It would save the government from having to pay for the inspections, but no, they just let Boing do the whole thing however however they want to. It makes no sense to me. >> Record orders >> showing no ability to do this. What? >> Record orders. Record. >> Yeah, record orders. Yeah. Like there was there was there was an Alaska Airlines that a huge I mean enormous order came in like like a 100 planes or something. Crazy numbers. That's a lot of planes from Boeing. You get 737 whatever it is being ordered again after that was the main culprit. >> Yeah. >> You know the door blowing off was weird. That was just a endemic of some very bad >> Well, they bought the company that was the subcontractor that did the doors and so they think that'll fix things. >> Quiet it down. >> But they used to have that company. They that was a spin-off. I mean, this I keep every time I watch Boeing and and their machinations, I just have no faith in that. I would never invest in them. I don't care how high the stock goes. >> There's two companies, two main companies that make planes in the world. I mean, yes, there's there's others. There's smaller ones for the private jet. Small >> the Chinese will come along. We're going to get some >> probably some BYD air aerospace >> electric. >> I don't know. They're going to be electric. Maybe with the new silver anode batteries. >> Maybe a hybrid. What about a hybrid plane? >> One with a very long extension cord. Yeah, I I'm not u looking forward to a anything other than a jet. >> Yep. A couple more things. Bond vigilantes are back. We said that um that the 10-year yield on uh the the um JGB is or not 10 year 40-year yield is 4.3%. But here's something else that's interesting. This is this is something I don't think that was bargained for the uh one of the reasons that our bonds now and by the way four no our our 10ear yield is 4.3% now US 10year yield is 4.3% 40year-old on the uh uh JGBs is 4.3% as well but the Danish pension operator said its existing US treasuries um are going to be sold they're exiting it over financial concerns tied to America's budget shortfall I think that is a very timely discussion, don't you? They're going to sell our bonds now. They only have about 100 billion. 100 million, sorry, 100 million, which by the way is nothing to speak of. It doesn't >> No, it's not a big deal. >> It's nothing. I could trade 100 million treasuries tomorrow. So, that's not a big amount, >> but they're going to get rid of them. And this is probably amongst the tensions over Greenland. Now the question is while these are very it's a very small number what if what if the other countries that are seeing the tariffs and that are trying to stop this whole Greenland takeover in Europe also say you know what we're going to start slowing our role here too. I don't know if that's mutually assured destruction. I don't know, but that could be interesting and really tick our bonds higher, which would really send things into a real big problem because one of the things they're banking on is the reissuing of debt and buying new debt, uh, quantitative easing, as we talked about, where where they're not letting the, you know, mini version. They're not buying new bonds on the on with extra money, but any bonds that roll off and mature, they're rebying, putting back into the into the into the into the process. Now, with that, what's interesting is the more bonds we have, well, the more we have to uh pay for the financing, right? The debt service. And with with the debt service going up and up and things like no tax on certain amount of tips, no tax on certain amount of um overtime uh with the amount of stimulus we have, you know, it causes our bonds now to be even on shaker territory. I would not be surprised if a few other countries do this and then we see one of the rating services come in and talk about like a credit watch negative on the US. I wouldn't be surprised. Well, that would be some uh some piss poor decision making, I think. >> But it's be it will be games play against the the potential for the tariffs. >> Yeah. Well, Trump can back off of those tariffs at the drop of a hat. >> That's true. And he will, by the way. >> Yeah, he will. He will because he always does. >> Yeah. So, I think what's going to end up happening is he'll talk about something like, hey, like maybe tomorrow even I'm not kidding. Or the next day, you know, I'm here in Davos. have some really constructive things. >> It'll be the speech will tell us everything we need to know. >> You know that we have some constructive meetings and uh we're going to postpone these until we can finalize our discussions making it look like the terrorist threat push the discussion. So whatever last thing. >> Yeah, maybe. Although I believe he's going to, you know, [ __ ] and moan more than he's going to be consiliatory. And he's also going to do material cuz he he an audience like this, he has to do, you know, material by I mean material, I mean com comedy material. >> Mhm. >> Which he loves to do in a big audience, especially international audience because he just thinks he is funny and uh he thinks he's funny, too. So, which is bad, but [laughter] he is he is people who think they're funny usually is not good, but he is funny. And he'll do a bunch of funny stuff up there and he'll get a lot of attention. And whether anything comes of it, I don't know. We'll see. >> We'll see. >> Might be dead serious the whole time. >> Maybe. I doubt it. >> I doubt it. >> Last uh item on this list, hedge funds. Hedge fund investors posted uh gains of about 12.6% last year. Their best return since 2009. What's interesting about hedge funds, people don't realize and recognize that they're in for the long haul. Uh, a lot of these hedge funds, there are some of these that are stock trading based that do very well, but many of them are hedged, have short positions, have hedge outs. So, 12.6% not a bad year. It's less than the averages. Hedge funds are not usually necessarily in in in totality are not built to beat an index. They beat they're there to have consistent good returns over years. uh runs uh funds run by companies like De Shaw, Millennium Management uh posted doubledigit returns. Bridgewwater Pure Alpha scored a 34% gain and uh hedge funds actually had inflows of $71 billion during the first three months of last year. A major reversal after decades of outflows. That's kind of interesting because there's been a lot of outflows from two places. one hedge funds, two mutual funds, all into ETFs or places like um like what I do advisory. They're pretty interesting, >> I think. But it's time. Let's get over to this little darling. This is a game that we play. It's not a solicitation to buy or sell any security. It's not a recommendation of any kind. Nothing on the show should be considered investment advice or a recommendation. If you choose to invest in any of the stocks mentioned, you should know that it may carry risk along with the risk of a loss of principle. You should also seek out professional financial advice for your particular situation. We assume no risk as these are not to be considered recommendations. Horowitz accompanied myself or John Cavoric may invest in any of the securities mentioned and we'll disclose that on the website under the weekly stock pick section. You can go to dhunplug.com and see all the names we discussed in the segment along with the performance information from the date discussed as well as any additional important disclosures. All right. All right. >> Yeah. Looking at we [clears throat] have a couple of interesting things here. Uh I think the most interesting is my short >> on into it. >> Good stuff. Look at that. >> Which is just picked what two shows ago and it's already up 20%. Again, I'm I'm proving my thesis that you can short insider trading uh if you look at the chart and try to figure out what's what what's wrong with this picture, >> but >> and I I think this is a good example. >> You've done this a few times. Uh well, that's the only one on the list, interestingly enough. >> Yeah. The only >> short the only short. >> Yeah. Yeah. That's the only short on the list and it's up. But but since since the mid part of last year, we picked BYU, the >> uh let's see here. Um let's just go with the let's go from December, shall we? >> We got Target as a miracle stock if it ever came back up 21%. >> Uh Synopsis up 15%. That was about uh Nvidia buying them or partnering with them, etc. >> Yeah, >> BYU Chinese AI up 19%. Uh the 1231 pick of Global X Defense Tech, the defense stock ETF up 17.95%. And Gabelli is just dead money right now. >> Yeah, dead money on Gabelli in into it up uh is the top is the winner in that group up 209. Uh other stuff on there. Uh expected L3 Harris is way up. Um the G the uh Li Liy one was the one that kind of caught me off. I got I think I got lucky with that one. >> I think you you could possibly get luckier if in fact they come out with a pill that is really you know that hits. So, so the semiglutide which is the um wgoi which is the uh uh ompic if you will is one receptor. >> Yeah. Lily's tepid. >> There's three now. >> There's another one coming out with three. >> Right now it's two is the big one which is the >> and it may may come out in pill form which and Medicare is paying for it. There's a lot of good things happening with all this. >> Yeah. Trying to kill us. Yeah, if the CO shot didn't kill us, this will. >> It's about right. >> So, uh, >> do you have a big for this week? I have nothing. >> I do. I do. I'm I'm getting on the silver bandwag. I'm getting the silver bandwagon. >> And I I I'll put this on as momentum. It's the top American company in that business. Uh, HAC Highfra, I'm sorry. Hraftoft H >> Highfra Mining. HYMC. Uh, and I, this is a momentum play. Uh, the CEO was on one of the, uh, >> 23% today. Do you know that? >> Yeah, I know. >> Wow. >> It's skyrocketing. And and there's and they and the woman who's the CEO, who's a sharp operator, she says, "Well, this is interesting. The stock's been skyrocketing because I we we have really good news that we're going to roll out later." >> Really? >> Yeah. So I I you know it's too it's expensive this stock but uh when you got a something taking going to the moon over the moon. >> Yeah. >> Uh I think it's probably worth uh putting on the on the game anyway. >> I like it. All right. We'll add that and uh we will then uh watch all the the the fun things to watch. I mean who watch TV anymore when we can watch all the shenanigans that are going on in the in the world and the markets right now. >> Yeah. or just feeds from Minneapolis. >> Oh, the horror show in Minne known as Minneapolis. That's some crazy. >> All right, >> I'll see you next week. >> All right, next week. >> All right, bye. >> You've been listening in on a conversation with John [music] C. D'vorak and Andrew Horowitz. Hope to be with you again soon. Bye-bye. >> Now, I'm not broke, but badly bent. I'm not down to my last scent [music] cuz I got a dollar, but it's my last dollar bill. Yes, sir. In my pocket there's a dance. All my dough is nearly spent, but I got a dollar and it's my last dollar bill. Oh, I'd love just one more buck fortune left me by [music] chance. Now, here's a hint. I feel like a men. You can hardly tell by a glance. I don't care. No millionaire can give me the Isis stack [music] cuz I got a dollar. My last dollar bill. >> [music] >> This podcast is intended forformational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice. Investing involves risk including the possible loss of principle and past performance is not indicative of future results. The views and opinions expressed are those of the hosts and the guests and may not necessarily reflect those of Horowitis Company Inc. an investment advisor registered with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration with the SEC does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Horowits Company is properly registered or is excluded from registration requirements. Any mention of thirdparty companies, products, or services is provided forformational purposes only and does not constitute an endorsement. 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