Michael Oliver: Silver Could Explode To $500 As Bond Crisis Triggers Fed Panic
Summary
Monetary Metals: Strong bullish case for gold and especially silver as protection against long-running fiat currency degradation and an emerging government bond crisis.
Silver: Technical setup suggests a breakout from the current range with potential to surge toward $300–$500, driven by undervaluation versus gold and money supply growth.
Gold: Uptrend intact and likely to outperform in equity bear markets; discussion included long-term scenarios of multi-fold gains as sovereign debt strains intensify.
Commodities: Broad commodity complex viewed as an investment-grade, multi-year uptrend; real assets remain cheap relative to equities, bonds, and purchasing power.
Oil: Buy-the-dip stance with WTI pullbacks to the low-$80s seen as opportunities; longer-term potential cited at $200–$300/barrel while avoiding headline-driven trades.
Copper: Structural breakout after decades-long range with targets of $7–$8+ as capital rotates from jeopardized bonds and wobbling equities into hard assets.
Market Risks: Rising long rates and a U.S. government bond crisis could catalyze metals; potential equity downturn ahead, with semiconductors (NVDA) possibly topping and banks (KBE) showing weakness.
Strategy: Accumulate monetary metals and select commodities, watch momentum triggers for entry confirmation, and avoid chasing short-term news flows.
Transcript
We got a government bond crisis now and uh it's we're going to have to deal with it. The stock market downturn which is starting will not get dramatic and this move to a new reality in silver that we're arguing for. We argue $3 to $500. It's highly likely. Suddenly you find yourself back up in the low7s in silver again. We argue put your helmet on. If you're short, you better better think twice. Hi, it's Maggie Lake from Wealthon. Many of our guests say the key to a resilient portfolio is owning physical gold and/or silver. And many of you have told us you'd like to, but your IAS don't offer it. Well, there's a solution for that. Go to wealthon.com/goldir and sign up to talk to an IRA specialist about how you can add physical precious metals to your existing IRA. No obligations, just answers. Hello and welcome to Wealthy on. I'm Maggie Lake. Joining me today to discuss the outlook for global assets is Michael Oliver, founder of Momentum Structural Analysis. Hi, Michael. Thanks so much for being with us. >> Well, I'm good to be here. >> So, Michael, uh, as we are recording this, it's Friday. We had a stronger thanex expected payroll number, monthly jobs number, which sent bond yields up, the dollar up, metal prices down, stocks selling off sharply. Um, I I feel like we have to start by asking you what you make of this. I mean, is this just a correction or do you think this is the start of something bigger? >> I think it's part of an ongoing process in the monetary metals, which is to say to the upside, it's been going on since 2015. Goal was a,50. Now it's in the 4,000s, four times where it was then. Uh, and you know, there's been this, that, and the other story all along the way. But the real underlying driver for monetary metals over the centuries, especially over the last century where we've had fiat money, all of the major countries is the degradation in the money units. the real buying power of a dollar or a euro or a yen or a pound which how many you know when your granddad built a house it was $4,500. No, it should be 450. Yeah. No, 4500. Yeah. When your dad built one was probably 45,000. If you want to build a median home today, it's $450,000. >> Okay. Get the point? It's it's a degradation of that piece of paper we call dollars or yen or euros or whatever. Competitive degradation. Well, this been underway for a century. You know, we started the Fed, what 110 years ago, something like that. And you know, they print money all the time. The You want to know what drives gold? Punch up an M2 money supply chart. Get it from Federal Reserve of St. Louis. Just type in Fed St. Louis M2. Boom. And then go back and click on, you know, like where was it in 1975? Where was it in 2000? Where's money supply now? And do the math. It's an upward curving lovely bull market. Okay. Uh, no wonder assets rise in that environment. They eb and they flow. They don't all go up tick for tick with it. Some vastly undervalue it, under underpric themselves relative to the growth in the money supply degradation and some match it and some beat it. Okay. Well, gold always matches or beats it. >> It es and flows. Yes. But right now, money supply since 1975, gold has matched it. It's held its value. S&P clearly hasn't. You know, you might make nominal price gains, but you're not making money. Uh most commodities are vastly undervalued related to the degradation in the money unit. Uh silver, which is my main focus, is vastly undervalued to the money supply unlike gold and it's vastly undervalued to gold historically. If we go back and look at where was silver versus gold in like 1980 was 6 and a.5% of the price of gold. Right now it's under two%. Okay. In 2011 when gold went up to 50 bucks that second time it was 3.1% the price of gold. Again we're under two. Uh so it's still undervalued to gold and it people forget it's it's monetary metal. It's real money. You know, it's not a precious metal. It's a monetary metal. And I think that silver is in the process despite this congestion zone that we've been in. We're now into the six month of going a lot higher into a new reality far beating gold, catching up to gold >> and catching up to the degradation of the money unit for example. Uh so what we're seeing right now like today as we're talking, silver's again punched under 70. Well, on February January 31st, February 3rd, there was a collapse in silver and gold. Only one day and a half. Okay, really most the collapse. Silver low then was $64. Okay, since then you you've had a rallies up to 90 a couple times and you even had a low in March that went down and swept the FBLO like let's run the sell stops, right? Let's flush them out. Okay, it spent two hours below that low and shot up 10 bucks almost immediately and then 20 bucks. There was it was a fake out breakout >> for the price guys. We warned that it was a fake out. Uh, now we're back under 70 again. And all of our metrics, shorter term and intermediate term, which are the only ones to look at right now because the long-term stuff is still highly positive, say look for an upturn. The technicals are set for rubber band snap to turn back up. And so today's flush, all I can tell the bears is do your best, guys. The clock has run out. either this one takes hold and you go down to your 50 bucks again like they think we're gonna do >> or somebody's been buying it every time it goes under 70 if you look back to February and I think that's probably where we are again. >> So there's good support there. Can silver make we'll talk about what what your upside targets are but can silver make make that kind of turn if the dollar is strong? Do you have to have other assets? >> Dollar is irrelevant. Um make a point here. uh the dollar index in December of 2015, which isn't again the value of the dollar, it's the value of the dollar versus other degrading pieces of paper. Okay? So, it's which one's flushing worse. Okay? Uh right now, the dollar index is at 100 today. It's having a rally. Okay? Uh you go back to December 2015 when gold made its low at a,50. dollar index was about 97 and a half. So we've been since 2015 for 11 years the dollar index has gone up and down nice big moves. They've been irrelevant to gold. Gold has quadrupled and the dollar index has gone sideways in oscillations but still net trend sideways. And so people who think that every tick in the dollar means something doesn't mean anything. Again, it's the package of degrading currencies that means something. And whenever things get ownorous for the Fed or for the DOJ or for the European Central Bank and they have a oh my goodness, there's a bank call in us. We got a little problem here with credit. Uh oh my goodness, you know, that kind of thing happens under the surface. You can take all the data points you want like unemployment and so forth, which are irrelevant to the stock market tops, for example. All those numbers go negative well after the stock market tops and the Fed cuts rates like crazy because that's their mandate, right? But their real mandate, which is implicit, it's not one of the two, you know, fight inflation, defend employment, is defend the government debt. >> And right now they got a government debt crisis. They didn't have that in 20078. They didn't have that in the dotcom collapse. They got it now. So they can talk all they want to about what this unemployment number looks like. That government debt market is on the edge of in fact we think it's crossed the edge technically for a sharp rise in long rates and the Fed will come in with hoses full trying to put out that fire. >> So you don't buy this idea that wash coming in and with with the jobs number and inflation running hot that they're going to be forced to hike rates that's what the market's starting to press in. You don't think they're going to be able to do that? If they do that, they'll create worse conditions um for a lot of things that need protecting that don't come under the mandates, but ultimately will cause those mandates to go negative in a way that they have to act. They'll have an excuse. Um and I think we're at that position right now where it's the government credit crisis is the one you should be looking at, not what AI is doing. And frankly, Nvidia just broke some numbers uh yesterday and today that indicate to us it's got a problem for a while at least. And semiconductors probably just had their blowoff. Uh and then you got to look at the financial sector. It's sick. Uh oh, the last two days it's been steady for some reason because most of the banks have been down. But uh if you look at their like the KBE which is the ETF of the banks its price right now if you think oh the banks have been good the last two days right now the KBE is trading 5% higher than it was in 2022. >> Okay Sideways so you know great sector right? Yeah. Uh anyway, something's going on in the financial arena and I think it's a credit crisis, private, but we also have a government credit crisis which is the real issue and that I think is the explosion issue for gold and silver. >> So if if this is if there's this sort of crisis brewing, what do we need to see? Do we need a catalyst that will break gold and silver out of this range? I mean, is it a crisis that happens that is the the next sort of match? I don't think you get the headlines right away. I don't think you'll get that. In fact, the stock market will be a factor as well because the stock market helps generate the data points that the Fed claims they they're mandated on. You know, unemployment uh and so forth. Uh we we ran charts couple weeks ago showing unemployment data and stocks market peaks. There's no correlation. The correlation comes later. Unemployment gets bad after the stock market tops, not before. It doesn't warn you. So the Fed looking at that is like nonsense. They ought to know better. Uh the real issue is you've got the house on fire, the government bond crisis. We're we're in the condition the Japanese are in. They're in death throws and they're having to print print. And their president is a uh was elected a year ago. She's equivalent to what you might call a Trumper in Japan in terms of her policies. And yet she wants to print print print. I think Mr. Trump does too. Uh and he wants rates cut. U so no doubt, you know, a lot of people in the administration are happy with good good employment number today. Uh but you know, now that the new Fed chair has that as a oh gosh, now I can't cut rates right away, you know, so he's in a box. Well, fine. It delays things, but he still has a house on fire and the house is not one of their mandates and that's the government debt market and it is technically in very bad shape. Let me define how bad. Uh well, they manipulate the short end of the market. And they've effectively had zero interest rates on Fed funds and 15 the last 15 years about 10 of those years you had like zero. Okay. And then they raised at the 5% a couple times. Okay. Even the 5 percent level that we got up to on Fed funds rates when you go back 75 years on a Fed funds rate chart, that's still a very low level historically. So rates have been exceptionally low on the low end. And yet the long bond, the 30-year bond, crashed effectively in 2122 and made a price low, a yield high, the opposite of the yields and stayed there for over three years now. In other words, it has not backed off its high yields. And the price action of T-bonds, which is what we analyze, T-bond futures, has laid on the floor trying three different times to generate let's get out of here type rally and it always fails. And right now, you're back on the lows of multi-deade lows, meaning you're challenging yields on long-term go back to 2007. Okay? So, and that's choking a lot of private long-term debt as well. That's not just choking the government. >> And Trump has not cut the budget. We know that's it continues to increase. In fact, you know, it always does. >> Now we have defense spending higher. >> Yeah. I mean, it it's one thing or another, but the point is that the you know, the budget continues to grow and u despite any efforts otherwise. And it's a crisis like Jamie Diamond said about three weeks ago, you know, we we got a government bond crisis now and uh it's we're going to have to deal with it. and he didn't mean 10 years from now. >> Uh and our technical work suggests not suggest argues that this recent drop in price of T-bonds back toward the lows that we made a couple years ago in fact at those lows uh is not going to hold. And that's what's going to panic the Fed because the Fed said in November Williams of New York Fed said we're going to start buying bonds. Well, price of bonds have gone down since then. Yield has continued up. So, their buying may have slowed the situation, but it hasn't stopped it. And if you go through those lows, the public is going to realize, not just foreign governments that aren't buying our stuff, but the public, my goodness, this alternative doesn't work. >> My portfolio is getting guttic. There is an alternative. You know, it >> alternative is >> monetary metals, >> silver. You go back in history through any major bare market in the stock and I'm not talking monthto monthth you could have an exception like the outlier October 2008 where gold collapsed with uh sharp drop lasted about a month uh with the stock market already a year off of its high >> stock market already been in a bare trend for a full year was way off its high. Gold finally said I need a correction and had a puke month. >> Yeah, >> it agreed with the S&P. So everybody said oh it goes down with the S&P. Well, if you stand back and look what happened before that and the years after, gold was in an uptrend. That was merely a dip in the middle. The stock market took until 2013 to even get back to its highs. >> So, could that happen again? Because people make the point and I think what worries them is especially if they're just thinking about moving into it because timing is everything, right? So, if they're listening to this and they say, you know what, I don't have gold or silver or enough of it in my portfolio. I'm going to I'm going to change that. I'm going to increase my exposure. Are we at risk of one of those sort of puke downturns because people need to sell whatever they can if they are in crisis? So, if we have a a sovereign bond market crisis, >> do we see people liquidating what they can and gold gets caught up in that? Well, >> this has been true with all stock market bears is you have a massive loss in value and occasionally in the bare markets, you'll actually have a crash. 2000 to 2002.com collapse, there was no crash. >> Crash being like 30 35% in a couple weeks. Okay, like the 87 crash, like days uh in that 2008 October event in the stock market, a year off its high, it had what was like a crash 30% in a month. Uh but that's not common right now. We think the stock market downturn, which is starting, will not get dramatic, meaning crashlike, where oh, it's margin call time, okay, until we get into next quarter. >> And our technicals say yes, you could move lower between now and then, but the real dynamics that could create a collapse type situation isn't right here, right now, nearby. We'd have to get there. And it won't take a lot like a handful of percentage points. So you get down under 7,000 on the S&P let's say for example it's 7,400 something now. So we're totally talking 78% or so. You get below 7,000 again and you do that in early next quarter. Then you start to look for something that might be margin call time. But even then there has to be an alternative and there always has been >> an alternative. If you look at what you couldn't buy gold from 1929 to 32 it was illegal. Okay. But you could buy homestake mining run of like a,000%. Well the stock market dropped like 87%. Okay. 2000 to 2002 bare market and do gold rose during that time. >> 2007 to9 net gain for gold while the stock market dropped. Okay. Uh so the association of bare market and stocks and oh the crash in ' 87 which I happened to catch not in a big way but I caught it clearly. We had the same momentum structure then vulnerable structure below that we have now that will trigger next quarter if we get down under that 7,000 by much. That was a collapse couple days October 2000 1987. Gold rose 7 and a half% that month. Well, the stock market dropped 35%. Okay, so the you know trying to compare stock market margin call situations with gold is about like saying what's the rainfall in Debuke, Iowa pattern compared to gold. You'll probably find a better correlation. >> What's the full moon phase? Okay. >> Yeah, >> I bet I could find a better correlation. Well, you know, the reason we always come back to that though is because people are thinking about this in terms of the wheels, the pies in their portfolio, right? And so they're trying to think if if there's a risk of one going down, am I protected enough if I if I move in into that direction? So, what do you see in terms of the price action for gold? If we're kind of in this tipping point that you're concerned about, where do you see gold and silver going? I sense the February collapse, gold and silver again. Go back to February 3rd on silver and that date on gold and draw a line sideways. It's been six months of repeated waves up down up down including the cleansing downside wave in late March which swept that early Feb low. So we had that we run the stops so to speak. So now we're still in that range. Okay. Yet it's been six months in the constant selling, repeated selling. Every time you get under 70 by much, what happens? Somebody buys it, you know, and I think there's a there's a fight going on here that really is more balanced than people give it credit. Most people just see the down ticks and get emotional. They don't, you know, there's upticks that come in between. You got this 70 80 again. Well, this horizontal pattern won't persist. Either the Bears are going to win this >> and take us down to 50 something like the majority think. Uh it better happen like yesterday. Okay, it better happen Monday and Tuesday because our short-term technical metrics, momentum based and our weekly momentum metrics and our monthly momentum metrics all argue that this downside pressure waves that we've repeatedly seen into the six month now, if they don't take hold in this selloff, this is it. M >> this is their last chance. And the daily momentum says it better be like Monday and Tuesday. >> You don't want to uptick silver back into the low 70s again. If you do, I think you just saw it. The third attempt to break didn't take hold. And I argue that likely that once we turn up out of the third break, either we go to the 50s, and I'm wrong, or we hold here again in just below 70, we flip back up. You flip back up into the low to mid70s again on silver. you look at a price chart that doesn't mean much but to our metrics it says hey you're coming out of here and you'll probably come out of here on a jolt >> are we are we likely to see if we if we do that and we bounce and starts moving higher are we likely to see that kind of parabolic move that we saw at the beginning of the year >> yeah I I'm I'm arguing technically and this is based on a lot of factors not just it's certainly not fundamental because we don't look at fundamentals yeah we're aware of them silver's had a supply demand deficit for path half a decade. Uh there's all kinds of other things out there, but we look at our momentum technicals and we look at other markets or what they've done. And this move to a new reality in silver that we're arguing for, we argue $300 to $500 is highly likely >> once you come out of the congestion zone. All of our major long-term buy signals based on our stuff like the last three were in 2024. We said a buy at March of 2024 25 to $26 silver. We said you're going up challenge the highs the 50 bucks. We had a problem in 20 in 2025 around the $35 level. Took us three times to get up there and we said the third attempt to rise up through 34. We said this time you're going through. Boom. suddenly went top of the range. Last November was our final buy. Silver was 56. That was based on silver breaking out versus gold. >> Mhm. >> I mean, and silver's been a dog for quite a quite a long number of years here relative to gold. Remember, it was 6 and a.5% the price of gold back in 1980. Right now, it's under 2%. Okay. the for the prior decade that we just went through, silver was capped against gold at a certain level. When we divided an ounce of silver into gold, you could see a chart with a beautiful ceiling. We broke through that in November. So, the spread says, "I'm coming out of here." That was almost simultaneous with silver breaking through the top of its price range. It had been 50 bucks. Did that in October. Sure enough, right after that spread breakout occurred, what did silver do? Gushed up to 120. Yes, it pulled back, but it pulled back to a level that's now 50% higher than the upper end of that range. On average, silver's been 75 bucks. Upper end of the range is 50. When you come out of this congestion zone, it's going to replicate what we argue copper did in 2005, lead in 2007. They had a multi-deade range at stagnant levels, very low. Copper had a 50 cent to a buck 50 range for decades. 2005 it broke out. It quadrupled in price >> in a matter of several quarters without any help from another market and without any headlines. Lead did the same thing in 2007. Quadrupled after coming out of a dead range for multiple decades. It suddenly went up quadrupled in price and it did so in a matter of several quarters and then lived in a new reality. Why hasn't silver come out of its range until just now when gold never stopped at a prior high? You know, 2000 uh 1980 high was 850. 2011 high was 1920. We got above 2,000, you know, past few years. Silver's still capped below 50. What's going on there? Copper wasn't capped. Lead wasn't. Gold wasn't. You know, it it's a reinforces the argument that someone tried to keep it under control. Well, they're losing. Okay. And we argue that the real explosion, this occurred in copper and lead as well, where you had the first surge, but it was the last three months of the move where you went white knuckle flight vertical >> and again without headlines, I think. Who do you think is who do you think is trying trying any >> I don't I'm not going to argue that point. I do we do know there have been a few convictions in fact uh but and it it's clear to me that something unusual was happening because if the other monetary metal the mama gold blasted through its highs every time and by the way gold for example people think it's overbought when you look at an arithmetic or a dollar chart because it does it looks you know oh wow look at that the bull market that ended in 80 it began from a 1976 low was an eight-fold game the bare low to the bull high eight times. Okay, 2001 to 2011, different span of time, eight-fold gain. We started from a low at 1,50 in 2015. We're only at fourfold. >> We're we're half the dimension of the gold prior to bull markets that had far less explosive fundamental reason to go up than we do now. So, even JP Morgan a few months ago put out a report. I did not read it in detail. I just saw the headline that ultimately $9,200 gold would not surprise him. >> Well, that sort of fits with the Hey, who did it again another eightfold? Well, if gold goes to 8,000, you imagine where silver is since silver is now outperforming gold. You do six, let's say silver goes back to its spread high in 1980, which is six and a half percent. or even 3.1% as it was in two in in 2011 and gold's at 8,500. You do the math. Okay? There's all kinds of factors that argue we're in a situation of a new reality move like copper did and lead did and gold has done every time. >> Silver has been unduly restrained. And when a market gets overdone one way or the other, quite often when it corrects for the error, it goes berserk the other way. That's right. >> So should investors be looking for entry points? I mean is this the time to accumulate before you have the move? >> The optimal time has already come and gone. That's the problem. Long-term momentum gave its signals and we could giving long-term base triggers as of November. Again, it was $56. However, because the recent break did damage intermediate and short-term trend factors for gold and silver, therefore something that has to be rebuilt to get it going again. >> It's not the long term. Long term is totally intact. It's just a break within that context. What we're trying to identify at MSA in our continual reports is adjusting what numbers does it take on a shorter term to intermediate term to indicate that this congestion zone is about to be broken out above again without waiting for the obvious price breakout above, you know, to 120 silver and 5600 gold. There are numbers not far overhead that will do that. And if this plunge doesn't take hold, the one we're seeing right now on a short-term basis, and suddenly you find yourself back up in the low 70s in silver again, we argue put your helmet on. If you're short, you better better think twice because I think coming out of the hole this time, once we trigger our numbers, we're very number sensitive. We don't just hypothesize and wave our arms. We want to see the numbers triggered, and they're not triggered yet. We trigger those numbers, and we think you'll come out of the hole very rapidly. That would be a place for a late comer to say, "Okay, I should position somewhere." >> Right. And what what if anything would change your mind about this this very bullish forecast? Is there anything that >> I'd be I'd be very I think the bull move is going to occur regardless. The qu that what would change my mind would be getting down to what everybody thinks is going to happen like we actually break down in a serious way out of this congestion zone which again has been sideways >> uh and go down in you know into the 50s again. That would surprise me and which I'd have to reassess. Does that break everything? No. Ultimately, the long-term trend is still up, but that would surprise me because I do think silver has signaled via various metrics last year mainly that it's going into a tantrum move like copper did and lead did and and gold does every time. Eightfold moves, eight-fold moves, you know, and silver some reason capped forever, you know. No. >> And breaking out having a brief surge to 120 and really the top weekly close was $100, by the way. uh that's not doesn't satisfy that. In fact, if you take the the ratio scale charts of silver and gold, copper and lead, not an arithmetic scale, but ratio percentage scale, that copper move that occurred in late 2005 and peaked early in 2006 at $410. Remember, it came out of a range from 50 cents to a buck 50. Most of that occurred in the last few months, but it was a doubling of the ratio scale of the prior base. Lead did the same thing. You had a range and if you put it in a log scale and added to the top, it did it. If silver had a ratio scale move, remember your range was four bucks to 50, four bucks to 50. That's a t-fold multiple gain from low to high, low to high for decades. If you take that dimension and add it to 50, it says 500. So there's all kinds of things that argue just to satisfy this pent up rage in effect. Uh don't be surprised if it goes to levels of that zone >> just to catch up to the degradation in the money unit for example. So we still say 3 to 500 and once we break out of congestion that likely will occur in a literally three or so months. Very good. >> Wow. That's going to be a that's going to be a powerful move. Are are you as bullish? So you see the best opportunity in silver. You're bullish gold. Are you bullish other commodities as well or do you think most of the real action is centered in precious metals or monetary metals? >> Uh no. The commodity complex as a whole looks like an investment grade place to be. In fact, I would buy oil broke out for us for example in January. Our long-term momentum said buy oil was $65 West Texas. Okay. Now, the war started in March really and you know and all everybody orgy came in buying headlines. You don't buy headlines. Okay. Very bad idea. So, they probably paid 105 bucks for it. Went to 117 twice. West Texas futures. Now you're back to 90. Okay. So, most guys who bought the headlines are probably losing right now. Okay? And it wouldn't shock us. You get back down to the low 80s again, which would not negate our original buy signal at 65. It would just be, okay, let's flush the headline, guys. >> You know, uh it's sort of like the guys who sold the stock market based on Iran. Iran's still here, but the stock market washed them out. That sucked them in and then kicked them out that way. Uh don't buy headlines. So, but anyway, right now I think any pullback you see like in the energy complex, especially if you get oil down in the low 80s, let's say, that will have flushed out the the late chasers, but oil is still a bull trend. And I think you maybe 200 300 barrel ultimately, but it's not an explosion process in the commodities. I think it's a it's a multi-year uptrend. not what silver's about to do, but it's a multi-year uptrend in a broad asset category which if you measure it against anything is so cheap >> relative to the real value of the dollar, relative to the S&P, relative to gold. It's a it's an asset that's real. You step on it, you eat it. You know what I mean? It's real world and it's off the price priced off the page priced. We got bullish on Bloomberg index which is a broad index in October at 10650 and right now in the sell-off it's 13250 and so but from an investment grade point of view nonleverag not options think out two three years I think the commodity complex you can almost throw a dart at the subsectors within it and you'll make money. What about copper? Because you mentioned that earlier in a prior uh a prior phase, but a lot of people have been watching that price action and feeling yeah very very bullish about copper. >> They should be and copper is again, you know, lived in a 50 cent to a buck 50 range for decades up until 2005. Shot up to 410. Lived in a multi-deade range about 350. It's now broken out of that range. Copper's in a bull trend. We've been bullish for quite a while, much longer than Bloomberg back in October. And I don't really have a good target except to say seven or eight should be easily achievable and it may go way beyond that. Uh again it's historically cheap asset even you know you say well 650 versus used to be a buck you know well the money degradation alone would compensate for part of that. Uh but there's other factors in play in in that when money flows out of the jeopardized category, large asset category like government bonds used to be absolutely safest place to be, right? Alternative place, but no longer Japanese bonds and now our bonds are in question. Whoa. That's earthshaking. And if the stock market starts to wobble and suddenly proves that it's not a place to be, what are you left with? It's never the case that everything goes down together. That is an historic error. >> I can prove it with multiple charts. So everybody says, "Oh, if the stock market goes down, everything's going down." Copper's risen sharply in commodities as well in gold in global recessions. 74 to 1980, global recession, okay? Stagflation, government printed money, okay? And even interest rates rose then, but gold still went up. So commodities emphasis monetary metals. It's where I think I'd be. >> Yeah, I think that's uh it's so important to that discussion now because uh you know when you see the statistics of what's what what the holdings of most people are hard assets are underweight. You know that's a very small percentage of most people's portfolio. So it's a really important time to have this conversation. Once you poke them and they they get scared about their stock market, there are, you know, their retirement account suddenly is down 20%. Oh my, 30%. Oh, no crash, just down >> uh and they look at bonds. Oh, that's not working. What's working? >> Yeah. >> You go back three years and plot what gold's done versus stock market >> or versus bonds. It's off the page beating them. >> Yeah. And and hopefully you want to try to make some of those moves before you're before you're chasing it and on the other end. >> Before the mob comes in. Yeah. The mob. Yes, we want to avoid the mob. U Michael, fantastic stuff. Thank you so much for joining us today. Really appreciate it. >> I was glad to be here.
Michael Oliver: Silver Could Explode To $500 As Bond Crisis Triggers Fed Panic
Summary
Transcript
We got a government bond crisis now and uh it's we're going to have to deal with it. The stock market downturn which is starting will not get dramatic and this move to a new reality in silver that we're arguing for. We argue $3 to $500. It's highly likely. Suddenly you find yourself back up in the low7s in silver again. We argue put your helmet on. If you're short, you better better think twice. Hi, it's Maggie Lake from Wealthon. Many of our guests say the key to a resilient portfolio is owning physical gold and/or silver. And many of you have told us you'd like to, but your IAS don't offer it. Well, there's a solution for that. Go to wealthon.com/goldir and sign up to talk to an IRA specialist about how you can add physical precious metals to your existing IRA. No obligations, just answers. Hello and welcome to Wealthy on. I'm Maggie Lake. Joining me today to discuss the outlook for global assets is Michael Oliver, founder of Momentum Structural Analysis. Hi, Michael. Thanks so much for being with us. >> Well, I'm good to be here. >> So, Michael, uh, as we are recording this, it's Friday. We had a stronger thanex expected payroll number, monthly jobs number, which sent bond yields up, the dollar up, metal prices down, stocks selling off sharply. Um, I I feel like we have to start by asking you what you make of this. I mean, is this just a correction or do you think this is the start of something bigger? >> I think it's part of an ongoing process in the monetary metals, which is to say to the upside, it's been going on since 2015. Goal was a,50. Now it's in the 4,000s, four times where it was then. Uh, and you know, there's been this, that, and the other story all along the way. But the real underlying driver for monetary metals over the centuries, especially over the last century where we've had fiat money, all of the major countries is the degradation in the money units. the real buying power of a dollar or a euro or a yen or a pound which how many you know when your granddad built a house it was $4,500. No, it should be 450. Yeah. No, 4500. Yeah. When your dad built one was probably 45,000. If you want to build a median home today, it's $450,000. >> Okay. Get the point? It's it's a degradation of that piece of paper we call dollars or yen or euros or whatever. Competitive degradation. Well, this been underway for a century. You know, we started the Fed, what 110 years ago, something like that. And you know, they print money all the time. The You want to know what drives gold? Punch up an M2 money supply chart. Get it from Federal Reserve of St. Louis. Just type in Fed St. Louis M2. Boom. And then go back and click on, you know, like where was it in 1975? Where was it in 2000? Where's money supply now? And do the math. It's an upward curving lovely bull market. Okay. Uh, no wonder assets rise in that environment. They eb and they flow. They don't all go up tick for tick with it. Some vastly undervalue it, under underpric themselves relative to the growth in the money supply degradation and some match it and some beat it. Okay. Well, gold always matches or beats it. >> It es and flows. Yes. But right now, money supply since 1975, gold has matched it. It's held its value. S&P clearly hasn't. You know, you might make nominal price gains, but you're not making money. Uh most commodities are vastly undervalued related to the degradation in the money unit. Uh silver, which is my main focus, is vastly undervalued to the money supply unlike gold and it's vastly undervalued to gold historically. If we go back and look at where was silver versus gold in like 1980 was 6 and a.5% of the price of gold. Right now it's under two%. Okay. In 2011 when gold went up to 50 bucks that second time it was 3.1% the price of gold. Again we're under two. Uh so it's still undervalued to gold and it people forget it's it's monetary metal. It's real money. You know, it's not a precious metal. It's a monetary metal. And I think that silver is in the process despite this congestion zone that we've been in. We're now into the six month of going a lot higher into a new reality far beating gold, catching up to gold >> and catching up to the degradation of the money unit for example. Uh so what we're seeing right now like today as we're talking, silver's again punched under 70. Well, on February January 31st, February 3rd, there was a collapse in silver and gold. Only one day and a half. Okay, really most the collapse. Silver low then was $64. Okay, since then you you've had a rallies up to 90 a couple times and you even had a low in March that went down and swept the FBLO like let's run the sell stops, right? Let's flush them out. Okay, it spent two hours below that low and shot up 10 bucks almost immediately and then 20 bucks. There was it was a fake out breakout >> for the price guys. We warned that it was a fake out. Uh, now we're back under 70 again. And all of our metrics, shorter term and intermediate term, which are the only ones to look at right now because the long-term stuff is still highly positive, say look for an upturn. The technicals are set for rubber band snap to turn back up. And so today's flush, all I can tell the bears is do your best, guys. The clock has run out. either this one takes hold and you go down to your 50 bucks again like they think we're gonna do >> or somebody's been buying it every time it goes under 70 if you look back to February and I think that's probably where we are again. >> So there's good support there. Can silver make we'll talk about what what your upside targets are but can silver make make that kind of turn if the dollar is strong? Do you have to have other assets? >> Dollar is irrelevant. Um make a point here. uh the dollar index in December of 2015, which isn't again the value of the dollar, it's the value of the dollar versus other degrading pieces of paper. Okay? So, it's which one's flushing worse. Okay? Uh right now, the dollar index is at 100 today. It's having a rally. Okay? Uh you go back to December 2015 when gold made its low at a,50. dollar index was about 97 and a half. So we've been since 2015 for 11 years the dollar index has gone up and down nice big moves. They've been irrelevant to gold. Gold has quadrupled and the dollar index has gone sideways in oscillations but still net trend sideways. And so people who think that every tick in the dollar means something doesn't mean anything. Again, it's the package of degrading currencies that means something. And whenever things get ownorous for the Fed or for the DOJ or for the European Central Bank and they have a oh my goodness, there's a bank call in us. We got a little problem here with credit. Uh oh my goodness, you know, that kind of thing happens under the surface. You can take all the data points you want like unemployment and so forth, which are irrelevant to the stock market tops, for example. All those numbers go negative well after the stock market tops and the Fed cuts rates like crazy because that's their mandate, right? But their real mandate, which is implicit, it's not one of the two, you know, fight inflation, defend employment, is defend the government debt. >> And right now they got a government debt crisis. They didn't have that in 20078. They didn't have that in the dotcom collapse. They got it now. So they can talk all they want to about what this unemployment number looks like. That government debt market is on the edge of in fact we think it's crossed the edge technically for a sharp rise in long rates and the Fed will come in with hoses full trying to put out that fire. >> So you don't buy this idea that wash coming in and with with the jobs number and inflation running hot that they're going to be forced to hike rates that's what the market's starting to press in. You don't think they're going to be able to do that? If they do that, they'll create worse conditions um for a lot of things that need protecting that don't come under the mandates, but ultimately will cause those mandates to go negative in a way that they have to act. They'll have an excuse. Um and I think we're at that position right now where it's the government credit crisis is the one you should be looking at, not what AI is doing. And frankly, Nvidia just broke some numbers uh yesterday and today that indicate to us it's got a problem for a while at least. And semiconductors probably just had their blowoff. Uh and then you got to look at the financial sector. It's sick. Uh oh, the last two days it's been steady for some reason because most of the banks have been down. But uh if you look at their like the KBE which is the ETF of the banks its price right now if you think oh the banks have been good the last two days right now the KBE is trading 5% higher than it was in 2022. >> Okay Sideways so you know great sector right? Yeah. Uh anyway, something's going on in the financial arena and I think it's a credit crisis, private, but we also have a government credit crisis which is the real issue and that I think is the explosion issue for gold and silver. >> So if if this is if there's this sort of crisis brewing, what do we need to see? Do we need a catalyst that will break gold and silver out of this range? I mean, is it a crisis that happens that is the the next sort of match? I don't think you get the headlines right away. I don't think you'll get that. In fact, the stock market will be a factor as well because the stock market helps generate the data points that the Fed claims they they're mandated on. You know, unemployment uh and so forth. Uh we we ran charts couple weeks ago showing unemployment data and stocks market peaks. There's no correlation. The correlation comes later. Unemployment gets bad after the stock market tops, not before. It doesn't warn you. So the Fed looking at that is like nonsense. They ought to know better. Uh the real issue is you've got the house on fire, the government bond crisis. We're we're in the condition the Japanese are in. They're in death throws and they're having to print print. And their president is a uh was elected a year ago. She's equivalent to what you might call a Trumper in Japan in terms of her policies. And yet she wants to print print print. I think Mr. Trump does too. Uh and he wants rates cut. U so no doubt, you know, a lot of people in the administration are happy with good good employment number today. Uh but you know, now that the new Fed chair has that as a oh gosh, now I can't cut rates right away, you know, so he's in a box. Well, fine. It delays things, but he still has a house on fire and the house is not one of their mandates and that's the government debt market and it is technically in very bad shape. Let me define how bad. Uh well, they manipulate the short end of the market. And they've effectively had zero interest rates on Fed funds and 15 the last 15 years about 10 of those years you had like zero. Okay. And then they raised at the 5% a couple times. Okay. Even the 5 percent level that we got up to on Fed funds rates when you go back 75 years on a Fed funds rate chart, that's still a very low level historically. So rates have been exceptionally low on the low end. And yet the long bond, the 30-year bond, crashed effectively in 2122 and made a price low, a yield high, the opposite of the yields and stayed there for over three years now. In other words, it has not backed off its high yields. And the price action of T-bonds, which is what we analyze, T-bond futures, has laid on the floor trying three different times to generate let's get out of here type rally and it always fails. And right now, you're back on the lows of multi-deade lows, meaning you're challenging yields on long-term go back to 2007. Okay? So, and that's choking a lot of private long-term debt as well. That's not just choking the government. >> And Trump has not cut the budget. We know that's it continues to increase. In fact, you know, it always does. >> Now we have defense spending higher. >> Yeah. I mean, it it's one thing or another, but the point is that the you know, the budget continues to grow and u despite any efforts otherwise. And it's a crisis like Jamie Diamond said about three weeks ago, you know, we we got a government bond crisis now and uh it's we're going to have to deal with it. and he didn't mean 10 years from now. >> Uh and our technical work suggests not suggest argues that this recent drop in price of T-bonds back toward the lows that we made a couple years ago in fact at those lows uh is not going to hold. And that's what's going to panic the Fed because the Fed said in November Williams of New York Fed said we're going to start buying bonds. Well, price of bonds have gone down since then. Yield has continued up. So, their buying may have slowed the situation, but it hasn't stopped it. And if you go through those lows, the public is going to realize, not just foreign governments that aren't buying our stuff, but the public, my goodness, this alternative doesn't work. >> My portfolio is getting guttic. There is an alternative. You know, it >> alternative is >> monetary metals, >> silver. You go back in history through any major bare market in the stock and I'm not talking monthto monthth you could have an exception like the outlier October 2008 where gold collapsed with uh sharp drop lasted about a month uh with the stock market already a year off of its high >> stock market already been in a bare trend for a full year was way off its high. Gold finally said I need a correction and had a puke month. >> Yeah, >> it agreed with the S&P. So everybody said oh it goes down with the S&P. Well, if you stand back and look what happened before that and the years after, gold was in an uptrend. That was merely a dip in the middle. The stock market took until 2013 to even get back to its highs. >> So, could that happen again? Because people make the point and I think what worries them is especially if they're just thinking about moving into it because timing is everything, right? So, if they're listening to this and they say, you know what, I don't have gold or silver or enough of it in my portfolio. I'm going to I'm going to change that. I'm going to increase my exposure. Are we at risk of one of those sort of puke downturns because people need to sell whatever they can if they are in crisis? So, if we have a a sovereign bond market crisis, >> do we see people liquidating what they can and gold gets caught up in that? Well, >> this has been true with all stock market bears is you have a massive loss in value and occasionally in the bare markets, you'll actually have a crash. 2000 to 2002.com collapse, there was no crash. >> Crash being like 30 35% in a couple weeks. Okay, like the 87 crash, like days uh in that 2008 October event in the stock market, a year off its high, it had what was like a crash 30% in a month. Uh but that's not common right now. We think the stock market downturn, which is starting, will not get dramatic, meaning crashlike, where oh, it's margin call time, okay, until we get into next quarter. >> And our technicals say yes, you could move lower between now and then, but the real dynamics that could create a collapse type situation isn't right here, right now, nearby. We'd have to get there. And it won't take a lot like a handful of percentage points. So you get down under 7,000 on the S&P let's say for example it's 7,400 something now. So we're totally talking 78% or so. You get below 7,000 again and you do that in early next quarter. Then you start to look for something that might be margin call time. But even then there has to be an alternative and there always has been >> an alternative. If you look at what you couldn't buy gold from 1929 to 32 it was illegal. Okay. But you could buy homestake mining run of like a,000%. Well the stock market dropped like 87%. Okay. 2000 to 2002 bare market and do gold rose during that time. >> 2007 to9 net gain for gold while the stock market dropped. Okay. Uh so the association of bare market and stocks and oh the crash in ' 87 which I happened to catch not in a big way but I caught it clearly. We had the same momentum structure then vulnerable structure below that we have now that will trigger next quarter if we get down under that 7,000 by much. That was a collapse couple days October 2000 1987. Gold rose 7 and a half% that month. Well, the stock market dropped 35%. Okay, so the you know trying to compare stock market margin call situations with gold is about like saying what's the rainfall in Debuke, Iowa pattern compared to gold. You'll probably find a better correlation. >> What's the full moon phase? Okay. >> Yeah, >> I bet I could find a better correlation. Well, you know, the reason we always come back to that though is because people are thinking about this in terms of the wheels, the pies in their portfolio, right? And so they're trying to think if if there's a risk of one going down, am I protected enough if I if I move in into that direction? So, what do you see in terms of the price action for gold? If we're kind of in this tipping point that you're concerned about, where do you see gold and silver going? I sense the February collapse, gold and silver again. Go back to February 3rd on silver and that date on gold and draw a line sideways. It's been six months of repeated waves up down up down including the cleansing downside wave in late March which swept that early Feb low. So we had that we run the stops so to speak. So now we're still in that range. Okay. Yet it's been six months in the constant selling, repeated selling. Every time you get under 70 by much, what happens? Somebody buys it, you know, and I think there's a there's a fight going on here that really is more balanced than people give it credit. Most people just see the down ticks and get emotional. They don't, you know, there's upticks that come in between. You got this 70 80 again. Well, this horizontal pattern won't persist. Either the Bears are going to win this >> and take us down to 50 something like the majority think. Uh it better happen like yesterday. Okay, it better happen Monday and Tuesday because our short-term technical metrics, momentum based and our weekly momentum metrics and our monthly momentum metrics all argue that this downside pressure waves that we've repeatedly seen into the six month now, if they don't take hold in this selloff, this is it. M >> this is their last chance. And the daily momentum says it better be like Monday and Tuesday. >> You don't want to uptick silver back into the low 70s again. If you do, I think you just saw it. The third attempt to break didn't take hold. And I argue that likely that once we turn up out of the third break, either we go to the 50s, and I'm wrong, or we hold here again in just below 70, we flip back up. You flip back up into the low to mid70s again on silver. you look at a price chart that doesn't mean much but to our metrics it says hey you're coming out of here and you'll probably come out of here on a jolt >> are we are we likely to see if we if we do that and we bounce and starts moving higher are we likely to see that kind of parabolic move that we saw at the beginning of the year >> yeah I I'm I'm arguing technically and this is based on a lot of factors not just it's certainly not fundamental because we don't look at fundamentals yeah we're aware of them silver's had a supply demand deficit for path half a decade. Uh there's all kinds of other things out there, but we look at our momentum technicals and we look at other markets or what they've done. And this move to a new reality in silver that we're arguing for, we argue $300 to $500 is highly likely >> once you come out of the congestion zone. All of our major long-term buy signals based on our stuff like the last three were in 2024. We said a buy at March of 2024 25 to $26 silver. We said you're going up challenge the highs the 50 bucks. We had a problem in 20 in 2025 around the $35 level. Took us three times to get up there and we said the third attempt to rise up through 34. We said this time you're going through. Boom. suddenly went top of the range. Last November was our final buy. Silver was 56. That was based on silver breaking out versus gold. >> Mhm. >> I mean, and silver's been a dog for quite a quite a long number of years here relative to gold. Remember, it was 6 and a.5% the price of gold back in 1980. Right now, it's under 2%. Okay. the for the prior decade that we just went through, silver was capped against gold at a certain level. When we divided an ounce of silver into gold, you could see a chart with a beautiful ceiling. We broke through that in November. So, the spread says, "I'm coming out of here." That was almost simultaneous with silver breaking through the top of its price range. It had been 50 bucks. Did that in October. Sure enough, right after that spread breakout occurred, what did silver do? Gushed up to 120. Yes, it pulled back, but it pulled back to a level that's now 50% higher than the upper end of that range. On average, silver's been 75 bucks. Upper end of the range is 50. When you come out of this congestion zone, it's going to replicate what we argue copper did in 2005, lead in 2007. They had a multi-deade range at stagnant levels, very low. Copper had a 50 cent to a buck 50 range for decades. 2005 it broke out. It quadrupled in price >> in a matter of several quarters without any help from another market and without any headlines. Lead did the same thing in 2007. Quadrupled after coming out of a dead range for multiple decades. It suddenly went up quadrupled in price and it did so in a matter of several quarters and then lived in a new reality. Why hasn't silver come out of its range until just now when gold never stopped at a prior high? You know, 2000 uh 1980 high was 850. 2011 high was 1920. We got above 2,000, you know, past few years. Silver's still capped below 50. What's going on there? Copper wasn't capped. Lead wasn't. Gold wasn't. You know, it it's a reinforces the argument that someone tried to keep it under control. Well, they're losing. Okay. And we argue that the real explosion, this occurred in copper and lead as well, where you had the first surge, but it was the last three months of the move where you went white knuckle flight vertical >> and again without headlines, I think. Who do you think is who do you think is trying trying any >> I don't I'm not going to argue that point. I do we do know there have been a few convictions in fact uh but and it it's clear to me that something unusual was happening because if the other monetary metal the mama gold blasted through its highs every time and by the way gold for example people think it's overbought when you look at an arithmetic or a dollar chart because it does it looks you know oh wow look at that the bull market that ended in 80 it began from a 1976 low was an eight-fold game the bare low to the bull high eight times. Okay, 2001 to 2011, different span of time, eight-fold gain. We started from a low at 1,50 in 2015. We're only at fourfold. >> We're we're half the dimension of the gold prior to bull markets that had far less explosive fundamental reason to go up than we do now. So, even JP Morgan a few months ago put out a report. I did not read it in detail. I just saw the headline that ultimately $9,200 gold would not surprise him. >> Well, that sort of fits with the Hey, who did it again another eightfold? Well, if gold goes to 8,000, you imagine where silver is since silver is now outperforming gold. You do six, let's say silver goes back to its spread high in 1980, which is six and a half percent. or even 3.1% as it was in two in in 2011 and gold's at 8,500. You do the math. Okay? There's all kinds of factors that argue we're in a situation of a new reality move like copper did and lead did and gold has done every time. >> Silver has been unduly restrained. And when a market gets overdone one way or the other, quite often when it corrects for the error, it goes berserk the other way. That's right. >> So should investors be looking for entry points? I mean is this the time to accumulate before you have the move? >> The optimal time has already come and gone. That's the problem. Long-term momentum gave its signals and we could giving long-term base triggers as of November. Again, it was $56. However, because the recent break did damage intermediate and short-term trend factors for gold and silver, therefore something that has to be rebuilt to get it going again. >> It's not the long term. Long term is totally intact. It's just a break within that context. What we're trying to identify at MSA in our continual reports is adjusting what numbers does it take on a shorter term to intermediate term to indicate that this congestion zone is about to be broken out above again without waiting for the obvious price breakout above, you know, to 120 silver and 5600 gold. There are numbers not far overhead that will do that. And if this plunge doesn't take hold, the one we're seeing right now on a short-term basis, and suddenly you find yourself back up in the low 70s in silver again, we argue put your helmet on. If you're short, you better better think twice because I think coming out of the hole this time, once we trigger our numbers, we're very number sensitive. We don't just hypothesize and wave our arms. We want to see the numbers triggered, and they're not triggered yet. We trigger those numbers, and we think you'll come out of the hole very rapidly. That would be a place for a late comer to say, "Okay, I should position somewhere." >> Right. And what what if anything would change your mind about this this very bullish forecast? Is there anything that >> I'd be I'd be very I think the bull move is going to occur regardless. The qu that what would change my mind would be getting down to what everybody thinks is going to happen like we actually break down in a serious way out of this congestion zone which again has been sideways >> uh and go down in you know into the 50s again. That would surprise me and which I'd have to reassess. Does that break everything? No. Ultimately, the long-term trend is still up, but that would surprise me because I do think silver has signaled via various metrics last year mainly that it's going into a tantrum move like copper did and lead did and and gold does every time. Eightfold moves, eight-fold moves, you know, and silver some reason capped forever, you know. No. >> And breaking out having a brief surge to 120 and really the top weekly close was $100, by the way. uh that's not doesn't satisfy that. In fact, if you take the the ratio scale charts of silver and gold, copper and lead, not an arithmetic scale, but ratio percentage scale, that copper move that occurred in late 2005 and peaked early in 2006 at $410. Remember, it came out of a range from 50 cents to a buck 50. Most of that occurred in the last few months, but it was a doubling of the ratio scale of the prior base. Lead did the same thing. You had a range and if you put it in a log scale and added to the top, it did it. If silver had a ratio scale move, remember your range was four bucks to 50, four bucks to 50. That's a t-fold multiple gain from low to high, low to high for decades. If you take that dimension and add it to 50, it says 500. So there's all kinds of things that argue just to satisfy this pent up rage in effect. Uh don't be surprised if it goes to levels of that zone >> just to catch up to the degradation in the money unit for example. So we still say 3 to 500 and once we break out of congestion that likely will occur in a literally three or so months. Very good. >> Wow. That's going to be a that's going to be a powerful move. Are are you as bullish? So you see the best opportunity in silver. You're bullish gold. Are you bullish other commodities as well or do you think most of the real action is centered in precious metals or monetary metals? >> Uh no. The commodity complex as a whole looks like an investment grade place to be. In fact, I would buy oil broke out for us for example in January. Our long-term momentum said buy oil was $65 West Texas. Okay. Now, the war started in March really and you know and all everybody orgy came in buying headlines. You don't buy headlines. Okay. Very bad idea. So, they probably paid 105 bucks for it. Went to 117 twice. West Texas futures. Now you're back to 90. Okay. So, most guys who bought the headlines are probably losing right now. Okay? And it wouldn't shock us. You get back down to the low 80s again, which would not negate our original buy signal at 65. It would just be, okay, let's flush the headline, guys. >> You know, uh it's sort of like the guys who sold the stock market based on Iran. Iran's still here, but the stock market washed them out. That sucked them in and then kicked them out that way. Uh don't buy headlines. So, but anyway, right now I think any pullback you see like in the energy complex, especially if you get oil down in the low 80s, let's say, that will have flushed out the the late chasers, but oil is still a bull trend. And I think you maybe 200 300 barrel ultimately, but it's not an explosion process in the commodities. I think it's a it's a multi-year uptrend. not what silver's about to do, but it's a multi-year uptrend in a broad asset category which if you measure it against anything is so cheap >> relative to the real value of the dollar, relative to the S&P, relative to gold. It's a it's an asset that's real. You step on it, you eat it. You know what I mean? It's real world and it's off the price priced off the page priced. We got bullish on Bloomberg index which is a broad index in October at 10650 and right now in the sell-off it's 13250 and so but from an investment grade point of view nonleverag not options think out two three years I think the commodity complex you can almost throw a dart at the subsectors within it and you'll make money. What about copper? Because you mentioned that earlier in a prior uh a prior phase, but a lot of people have been watching that price action and feeling yeah very very bullish about copper. >> They should be and copper is again, you know, lived in a 50 cent to a buck 50 range for decades up until 2005. Shot up to 410. Lived in a multi-deade range about 350. It's now broken out of that range. Copper's in a bull trend. We've been bullish for quite a while, much longer than Bloomberg back in October. And I don't really have a good target except to say seven or eight should be easily achievable and it may go way beyond that. Uh again it's historically cheap asset even you know you say well 650 versus used to be a buck you know well the money degradation alone would compensate for part of that. Uh but there's other factors in play in in that when money flows out of the jeopardized category, large asset category like government bonds used to be absolutely safest place to be, right? Alternative place, but no longer Japanese bonds and now our bonds are in question. Whoa. That's earthshaking. And if the stock market starts to wobble and suddenly proves that it's not a place to be, what are you left with? It's never the case that everything goes down together. That is an historic error. >> I can prove it with multiple charts. So everybody says, "Oh, if the stock market goes down, everything's going down." Copper's risen sharply in commodities as well in gold in global recessions. 74 to 1980, global recession, okay? Stagflation, government printed money, okay? And even interest rates rose then, but gold still went up. So commodities emphasis monetary metals. It's where I think I'd be. >> Yeah, I think that's uh it's so important to that discussion now because uh you know when you see the statistics of what's what what the holdings of most people are hard assets are underweight. You know that's a very small percentage of most people's portfolio. So it's a really important time to have this conversation. Once you poke them and they they get scared about their stock market, there are, you know, their retirement account suddenly is down 20%. Oh my, 30%. Oh, no crash, just down >> uh and they look at bonds. Oh, that's not working. What's working? >> Yeah. >> You go back three years and plot what gold's done versus stock market >> or versus bonds. It's off the page beating them. >> Yeah. And and hopefully you want to try to make some of those moves before you're before you're chasing it and on the other end. >> Before the mob comes in. Yeah. The mob. Yes, we want to avoid the mob. U Michael, fantastic stuff. Thank you so much for joining us today. Really appreciate it. >> I was glad to be here.