Pitch Summary:
Heartbeam Inc. has recently received FDA approval for its 12-lead equivalent, cable-free ECG device, marking a significant milestone in its commercialization efforts. The stock has experienced volatility, partly due to short-seller activity, but the company’s innovative product has the potential to save lives and disrupt the cardiac diagnostic market. The primary challenge remains securing sufficient funding to accelerate commercialization. Despite the current cash constraints, Heartbeam’s technology offers a unique value proposition, and the company’s strategic focus on expanding its market presence supports a bullish outlook.

BSD Analysis:
Heartbeam’s FDA-approved device positions the company at the forefront of cardiac diagnostics, offering a non-invasive, cable-free solution that could revolutionize patient monitoring. The company’s immediate priority is to secure funding to support its commercialization strategy, with potential partnerships and capital raises on the horizon. The recent short-seller attack has created a buying opportunity for investors who recognize the long-term potential of Heartbeam’s technology. As the company navigates these challenges, its focus on innovation and market expansion is expected to drive significant value creation in the coming years.

Pitch Summary:
Victory Square Technologies (VST) has shown significant growth potential, with a 116% return from its cost basis. The company has been strategically increasing its stake in Hydreight Technologies, which has also seen a substantial return. VST’s management has been proactive in raising funds to accelerate growth and scale the business, despite market skepticism about the timing and structure of the financing. The company’s strong balance sheet and cash flow positivity provide a solid foundation for pursuing multiple growth opportunities simultaneously. VST’s investment in Hydreight, which has exceeded its licensee growth targets, further validates its business model and growth strategy.

BSD Analysis:
Victory Square Technologies’ decision to raise funds before issuing guidance has been met with mixed reactions. However, the management’s rationale for this timing is based on operational opportunities rather than narrative-driven market expectations. The company’s ability to confirm demand and expand its pipeline of higher-value product lines positions it well for future growth. The recent capital raise, despite being dilutive, is expected to enable VST to launch multiple higher-margin initiatives concurrently, enhancing its competitive edge. The company’s strategic focus on platform and operational scaling, along with its track record of successful execution, supports a bullish outlook for 2026.

Description:
Terrahutton doesn’t only make the invisible, investable, it also made this video free of YouTube ads (by sponsoring it). Learn more …

Transcript:
[snorts] >> Today on Resource Talks, I’m hopefully getting a wake-up call regarding valuations in the mining space right now, as well as hopefully I’m going to learn what other mistakes I’m making in picking stocks during what seems to be a a very volatile bull market because apparently it’s not as straightforward out there. And later I’ll also be telling you about Terra Hutten, today’s sponsor who makes the invisible investable. Joining me is Rob Brogeman whose uh claim to fame was becoming a director of Abra Silver in 2018, later on chair and then staying on as chair up until very recently, about 6 months ago. He now runs a research platform under the name The Wealthy Miner while also staying involved at the board level with Abra. And which is actually an interesting mix, Rob. This is might maybe a good point to kick it off, but why why build a research platform instead of kind of staying purely on on the issuer side? Sure. Hi, Antonio. So yeah, I guess at the crux of that is really that I’m an analyst. My background is analysis. I studied engineering as well as business, but I’m an analyst and I love it. I love researching things and then um to monetize that I like investing. So I used to look at everything in Canada pretty much, but especially a lot of mining oil and gas and then I decided when I left the research world and Bay Street that there was a lot of money to be made in the mining sector. And so I said I’m going to focus on that exclusively. Um but when you look at and again this is all my self-analysis, but when you look at investment um really what it’s about is uh it’s quasi gambling and it’s all about odds. So you want to get as much information as possible um through understanding, through network, etc. so that you have an information advantage relative to other investors. And so let’s say you’re right 2/3 of the time and wrong 1/3. Well, if you’re gambling, those are fantastic odds. And if you do it repeatedly, you should make a bunch of money. So that’s really my approach to investment. Um and in fact I don’t gamble because I get much better odds in the market than say going to a casino. Um but you know, the the devil’s in the details and so when I decided to focus on the mining sector, I said, well, I need to understand it better. I need to get that information advantage. So what I decided to do is um become a consultant to mining companies so that I could kind of see firsthand what was going on and in the process also up my game in terms of what I knew. Um Started out a bit bumpy. You know, realize the importance of um CEOs and boards. Um but yeah, learned a lot along the way, kind of refined things um and then typically would get sucked in um where I would go from being just a consultant to um well, in in the case of Abra Silver um first I became interim CEO, had to restructure it. Um But I mean it worked out very well. It was a great asset. Um joined the board and turned it around and it’s great success, but um to answer your question it’s it’s actually a lot easier to analyze than to do the work. And then the other aspect of it is um there’s a lot of risk in obviously this space. And even if you have a great team and great geologist, you know, something that looks like an interesting project, there’s no guarantee that it’s going to be big enough or the grades are going to be there. I mean you don’t know until you test it. And so you know, I’ve tried that approach. Um I was CEO of a a greenfields exploration project in uh Newfoundland. It was a lot of work. It was very interesting. Learned a lot about grassroots exploration. Um but I realized it was going to take a lot more money and a lot more time to find the gold that was there somewhere on this you know, 900 square kilometer project. So I decided to kind of re-trench and yeah, I’d rather look at a whole bunch of companies, figure out who’s doing good work, let them do the work and then I’ll invest alongside. Well, and and and look, I’m I’m pro I promise I’m not trying to be annoying here or not more than usual, but kind of the obvious pushback in this in these situations is like if if if you have the track record and and you know how to do this, if your stock picks work, why do you have to charge for them? Why not just do your your stock picks instead of starting a you know, a research platform? Yeah, no, I think that’s a great question. And I guess I mean the easiest answer is I don’t want to just give them away for free. Um you know, if I’m going to publish something, then might as well charge for it. Um but the real reason that we set up the platform that I set up the platform is um you know, probably the most formational role that I had was when I became a an analyst for proprietary trading group in Toronto for one of the major banks. And um I had a call it investment committee or I had a group of traders and so I’d have to formulate ideas and run them by them before investing. And I found that the discipline that that instilled and the accountability was super useful. So in terms of you know, getting this information advantage um sticking with ideas um there was even though it was more work, there was substantial value in that. And so I’m trying to replicate something like that here where I do make you know, make much more money investing than I do off subscriber fees. Um but I think part of my investment success comes from the fact that I have to pitch the ideas to my subscribers. And then if something goes wrong, you know, if I’m saying, oh, these drill results are going to be great and then they come out and they’re not. Um okay, well, how do I respond to that? Am I sticking with the idea? Has something changed? Am I selling? It it’s very valuable. And then I guess a secondary um not necessarily ego-driven. I think more again going back to information advantage. Um I don’t want to disappear from the industry. I’d like to have people in the mining space say, okay, yeah, we know who Rob Brogeman is. You know, he’s an analyst. He looks at companies, invests in them. And so I think it it gives me some credibility and some relevance. It keeps my name out there. Mhm. Um but yeah, really at the heart of it is you know, I my goal is to make money from investments. Mhm. >> Um with kind of you know, supplemented I guess with some uh some subscriber fees, but that’s not really the primary goal. Yeah. And sorry, if I can just add to that. Um sorry, I just thought of this because originally you when I was thinking of the idea really you know, the problem with being a newsletter writer or this kind of an analyst is you know, it’s great when the market is good. And then it’s very problematic when you’re in a bear market. So typically what happens is you’ve seen people effectively implode or in some cases become paid analysts or paid newsletter writers during bear markets just because they have to eat. Mhm. Um and so I realize that’s you know, potentially the case here too. So at some point when we go to a bear market, I don’t really expect people to pay me for ideas that aren’t forthcoming because guess what? When things are going down I’m not going to tell you to buy something. I’m going to tell you to sell everything hopefully. You know, if I’m giving good advice, sell everything, get out. Wait until it bottoms and then we’ll buy back in. And so obviously people don’t want to pay for that and I wouldn’t want them to pay for that. So I realize you know, with this service probably at some point we’re going to have to just suspend the fees or um do something, but we’ll cross that bridge when we get there. That’s an interesting take. I think it’s it’s better than better than most. I think a lot of the times it’s a focus on how great everything is. Rarely it’s like, oh, time to sell, like the bad times are about to start. I appreciate the honesty there as well. Um I do want to know more about that, but people listening should also want to know more about Terra Hutten who doesn’t only make the invisible investable, but they’ve made this video free of YouTube ads by sponsoring it. Terra Hutten is built for the people who are tired of going through boring PowerPoint decks and geological jargon when they’re analyzing mining companies. It’s a digital platform where the data, the story, and the context sit together so mining investors can use visuals to understand the why without needing a geology degree or a week off work. And if you’re on the company side, it’s a great way to present your project like a serious operator with everything investors keep asking for in one place. Contact them at terrahutten.io. It Are we there now? Like is it is it time to I mean it it doesn’t seem like it is given that you’re you’re still running it. And uh but yeah, are we are we there now? Is it time to sell and get out? No, I don’t think so. Um so, I think what’s important is to understand what is really driving the market. Um and in the mining sector, it’s all about money flows. So, you know, it feels like 90% of the time, it’s a a small pool of investors and people, and it’s just money sloshing around, but not a lot of new money coming in. What happens in the bull market is new money comes in. Um things go up, and it’ll continue to go up as long as that new money is coming in. Um because especially if, you know, it tends to be generalist money. It’s like new people coming in don’t really understand mining. They may not buy specific stocks. They may buy an index or um they may follow certain people, but um what you need to understand then is what is driving that influx of capital beyond just momentum. You know, some people will just buy in because it’s going up. And so, when we look at precious metals specifically in gold, um you know, why is it going up right now, and why has it gone up so dramatically over the past year? Um there’s a guy who used to be commodities analyst with Goldman Sachs called Jeff Currie, and I like the way he characterized it. He just calls it the three D’s. So, there’s debasement of the US dollar. There’s dollar diversification. Um and then the third D is um I’m drawing a blank here for a second. Um Uh well, I’ll call it debt, but um it’s really those things that are driving gold prices higher. And so, we’ve seen central banks buying a lot of gold, specifically countries like China, um Russia, and non-Americans, and anybody who’s kind of enemies with the uh with the US. And in the process, what they’re doing is they’re moving away from US dollar denominated investments, specifically treasuries. And so, we’ve really seen that with China over the past decade. Um but the numbers are still small. It’s like if you look at China’s central bank reserves, only 9% of it is gold. And so, there’s lots of room for it to grow. Um and with other nations, if you look at, say, the Europeans, uh same thing. It’s like you don’t you know, you no longer have a reliable ally in the US. Um you know, my it’s been trade has been weaponized somewhat, all these tariffs. And so, you um you can kind of weaponize a currency, but also to become more self-dependent, um it makes sense to hold gold instead of the US dollar. Yeah, the other big thing is the Republicans and Trump have actively been trying to devalue the dollar. They’ve said, “We want a weaker dollar because we want to onshore production.” So, as an investor, if somebody says, “Yeah, there’s this asset or instrument, in this case the US dollar, we want it to be cheaper.” I don’t want to buy that. If you’re trying to make the value go down, why would I want to hold it? It makes no sense. I want to hold stuff that’s going up. But, what are the alternatives? I mean, the euro? Good idea. It was meant to be an alternative, but it’s such a disparate group of countries still trying to get their act together. It’s not really a a great alternative to the US dollar. The Swiss franc is, and there’s been lots of buying on that, but it’s too small. So, you come back to gold, and um I guess the other, you know, the big factor is you know, take whether it be the US, Canada, Europe, um government spending since COVID. The governments have figured out that people like handouts. People like spending. They don’t care how you’re going to pay for it. So, what we’ve seen is deficits are massively rising, and debt levels are going up. Well, they’re at the point where the only way out of that is really inflation. And even though we’re not seeing official inflation numbers really be that high, yeah, you can feel the inflation. And at some point, when it comes time to repay this debt, the easiest way, say, for the Americans, when they’ve got close to 40 trillion dollars of debt, the easiest way to repay that is going to be let’s print more money, and so we’re paying this 40 trillion off with cheaper dollars. So, when you have those inflationary forces, the things you really want to hold are hard assets. So, real estate, infrastructure, you have thing tangible things that will hold their value. So, it doesn’t matter where the US dollar and other currencies are trading, and gold is a perfect example of this. >> [gasps] >> You know, if those currencies, those fiat currencies are devalued, whatever you’re pricing them in, say, US dollars, the gold price is going to be much higher because the currency is actually much lower. Um so, yeah, that’s a these are macro, like tectonic shifts that are happening in geopolitics, um government, etc. And so, the question is, if that’s what’s been driving gold, are they likely to continue? And I would argue yes, for the foreseeable future, anyway. So, you know, I think the Republicans in the US are going to do whatever it takes to make sure that they have successful midterm elections. They’re going to be giving handouts um to packs, taxpayers. Um you know, it’s tax breaks, whatever they need to do. They’re trying to push um credit card companies to lower rates, um trying to influence mortgage rates, trying to bring the cost of living down so they get reelected. Um also trying to push US dollar down. So, I think you’re going to see debt go up. US dollar value is going to go down. There’s going to be crazy, you know, it’s Trump, so there’s going to be crazy stuff going on probably for the rest of this year. Who knows what happens with Iran? Who knows what happens with Russia? Um the other thing kind of that I’m curious about is um you know, when you have the US talking about potentially taking over Greenland, also, you know, snatching Maduro out of Venezuela, does that kind of greenlight China to say, “Hey, now’s not a bad time to go after Taiwan.” Um you know, if something like that happens, again, good for gold. So, I see, you know, other than the gold price being high, I see all these forces continuing to push gold higher. Um the other thing as an analyst, you know, I’m always looking at information. Well, we’ve had two previous significant bull markets in gold. Um one in the ’70s, and then one in the early 2000s. In both of those, the gold price went up six to seven times. So, when we look at the current bull market, um it started when gold was about $1,600 an ounce. Multiply that by six, you’ve got 9,600. So, call it 10,000. So, I think if history repeats, you know, we’ve got these forces pushing it, there’s no reason why we can’t see gold at 10,000. Now, maybe it’s because you know, the US dollar weakens that much more or other stuff happens, but um we’ve got momentum. So, I I expect it’s going to go higher. It’s getting increasingly volatile, but until I see otherwise, I see gold continuing to go up. It’s going to drag silver along with it. Um PGMs as well. You know, silver, I think it’s great. It’s high beta. It’s very scarce. Um It’s wildly volatile now. Um but yeah, I think the trade for today definitely is gold, precious metals. Um and then I like to say the trade for tomorrow is copper. And that one is different. And again, it’s it you know, the macro drives these things. Um so, what is it with copper? AI. AI, you got mediocre um electricity infrastructure that needs to be upgraded anyway. Um but I mean, you look at the billions, like hundreds of billions that each of these companies, like Google, Microsoft, are spending. It’s going in data centers. It’s going to consume a lot of power. You’re going to need a lot of copper. Um so, yeah, copper long-term, I think looks fantastic. I think, you know, short-term, a little less so, and that’s because um the threat of tariffs pulled a bunch of copper into the US. So, I think um you know, the short-term price could be volatile, could pull back, but long-term, you’re going to need just a lot copper. Um it takes a long time to bring on new mines, especially because most of them are porphyries. So, that’s great. I mean, you’re going to get this period where copper prices, I think, could be sharply higher than where we are. Um and then again, with these US dollar, you know, multiple forces driving down the value of currencies, it is another hard asset. So, that’s another reason you I think it’s going to do well. Well, the there’s a lot of stuff happening online when it comes on to macro. A lot of people have have opinions and directionally they turn out to be right sometimes. But rarely is someone correct on the timing of it all as well as the exact spot that it that it’s going to go and I know that you don’t try to forecast metal prices 3 months out or 3 years out. So, you don’t have a crystal ball that gives you an edge here, but what does what’s what’s your process that doesn’t require being right on on macro or metal prices exactly? Yeah, I guess yeah, you have to be um you have to be reactive or um I guess willing to Well, you have a thesis and you’re always analyzing it to see if it it’s still correct and you have to be willing to change when it’s not. Um and to go back to my trading days um you know, at the time I was a an equities analyst and yeah, it was all about valuation whatever and um there was interesting working with these these traders because I said, you know, the market is getting it wrong. This thing is worth you know, much more much less and they said, you know, what? The market can remain irrational far longer than you can remain solvent. Mhm. Yeah, and I think that’s an interesting point. So, it isn’t even about what’s right or wrong. What what should the gold price be? I have no clue. I see forces driving it and I see money coming in and as long as that continues to happen, price is going to go up. Um so, what I mean by that is um if that changes, then you have to you know, you can’t fall in love say with $10,000 or so $10,000 gold as a target. If something changes, you say, okay, it’s changed. What do I do next? And so, you know, I’m a fan of technical analysis as another tool in my toolkit as well and you can just apply basic technical analysis to So, I mean, if you plot the gold price, it’s hitting it’s got a nice trendline that’s up. And generally when you’re in a momentum trade, what you want to see is certain patterns. So, you know, you can have a pullback like we’re getting now. Um but what we don’t want to see down the road is a lower low because that’s an indication of a trend change. Um so, I look at all these things and I say, okay, right now gold is in an uptrend. Um if I see something change on the fundamentals, so say in October, let’s say the Republicans lost the midterm elections. Okay, well, that’s a pretty fundamental change. You know, Trump can’t do all these executive orders anymore. That’s not going to be good for gold. So, that’s a fundamental change or even otherwise, if I see um gold hitting a new lower low, that’s a trend change. I’m going to reduce my positions at that point. I’m going to hold off and wait. I’m not going to go short. Um but I’m going to reduce my exposure to see if that changes. Um you know, maybe I trade around things, whatever, but I I just I react I I analyze, I react, I adapt. Um And then the the key thing is um I mean, it’s good to make money, but you want to keep money and you know, to do this long term, you always need to preserve your capital. How do you how do you treat that more specifically though when you look at let’s say PEA stage assets right now? Is there a reality check discount to to the presented MPV 5 rate that it might be or how do you how do you even deal with those economic reports? Like if I see a billion dollar MPV 5 in a gold project right now, do I just immediately apply a 20% discount or yeah, how do you look at that? Well, if it’s PEA, it’s PEA to begin with, right? And it’s um PEAs are notoriously unreliable. Um but what’s happening right now is when companies are doing PEAs, they’re applying current costs. So, your capital costs and your OPEX projections. Now, the good thing is you know, we’re not using spot prices as base case assumptions. We’re using some discounted numbers. So, let’s say right now PEAs are coming out they’re probably about using say $3,000 per ounce of gold. Um maybe slightly below that. If you’re driving an MPV off of that, take it with a grain of salt because it’s a PEA, but aside from that, you know, it’s it’s a good estimate, right? The problem is right now that companies are taking these and they’re saying, here’s our PEA, it looks good. Plug in spot prices, it’s phenomenal. It’s like, yes, it is phenomenal, but the reality is you’re going to see massive CAPEX inflation as long as the gold price is going up. So, I estimate right now probably seeing about 20% a year CAPEX inflation is what I expect. So, if you’re pitching a PEA for a project that’s 5 years out, you’re keeping costs the same, you’re keeping your CAPEX the same and you’re saying, oh yeah, let’s use $5,000 gold. Wow, look at this, you know, the IRR is huge and the MPV is through the moon, therefore buy the stock. In 5 years, I mean, who knows what the gold price is going to be? Um but if it’s significantly higher, I can tell you your costs are also going to be vastly higher because margins over time stay the same. Um it’s just you know, it’s the way the industry has worked, it’ll continue to work that way. There’s just a lag between them. So, I think there’s a disconnect there. Um you know, I think PEAs are fine, but taking PEA costs and then applying spot prices, it’s not real. Um Now, if it’s a feasibility study, then yes. You know, if you can build it quickly, if you’re in a good jurisdiction, you can get your permits, it’s a relatively straightforward project, yes, that’s different. And in fact, then you’re in a sweet spot. So, I like advanced exploration, near-term production because those are the companies that will benefit from the higher gold prices and their costs aren’t going to change that much. In fact, you know, let’s say there’s a a project you’re going to build and it’s 500 million in CAPEX. If gold prices remain strong, which for the foreseeable future I think they will, well, in a few years out, let’s say 5 years out, that 500 million CAPEX build could very well be a billion. Mhm. So, I think existing producers, near-term producers, advanced exploration with a short lead time to production and obviously a good project, I think that’s going to be the sweet spot in the market today. It’s not you know, I’ve got a PEA on some big project, most of the resources are inferred, it’s going to take 8 years before we get there. It’s like, okay, yeah, I could make up some numbers and they’re probably just as reliable as that PEA. What’s a reasonable price for them to use then in that case? Like is it 20% below spot? 50? Is it a long-term average of sorts? What should they be using? No, I think you know, what they’re using now, say um $3,000 gold, I think is fair. Um and it’s I mean, the problem is you can’t really Well, in theory what should happen is if you’re projecting something that’s many years out, theoretically, you should estimate what metal prices are then and then what your costs are going to be. And it’s virtually impossible, right? So, the best solution is what they’re doing today, which is use today’s costs. You know, it’s kind of the best estimates that we have. Um and then use some number that we think um implies a long-term average for the commodity price because when you build a mine, usually they’re multi-cycles long and you have to make money through the cycle. So, I think yeah, I think right now using $3,000 gold, let’s say for a gold mine, today’s costs, that’s fine. Um I definitely don’t think you should use $5,000 gold. Mhm. Unless it’s very near-term, I suppose. Um what would that be actually like in in production within 18 months, 36? What would that look like? Yeah, I think you know, the next 1 to 2 years, um again, if you look at historic bull markets, um you know, they can last many years, but um from an investment perspective, time [snorts] is the enemy, right? Um I’ll take a year over 3 years for sure. Um the other thing is right now, if you’re going to build a mine, there’s plenty of money available. Um if you have a good project and you want to raise money, it’s there. I don’t know. In 2 years yeah, let’s say you have big capex built. There’s no guarantee that you’re going to be able to raise the money for that. So, you may not have it mined. So, yeah, shorter is better and I wouldn’t yeah, I probably personally wouldn’t go out much beyond say well, I guess you’d want to be building it within the next 2 years. Yeah. Well, that introduces I suppose a different challenge is that management’s going to tell you they’re going to build it within 2 years and if you don’t know better, you’re going to believe them. What are the What are the specific kind of gates I suppose that must be cleared for you to actually believe them? Like are you looking for permits? Are you looking for power that’s ready? Their water, roads, social licensing, financing in place? What is kind of that those gates that you’re looking for? Yeah, so every project is different, right? But it’s all of those things. So, if um yeah, if you’re PEA stage, um yeah, some companies will try to jump to right to a feasibility study and skip the pre-feas, which there are reasons pre-feasibility studies exist. Um and you can’t do let’s say a good feasibility study in 12 months if you only have a PEA so far. Just Yeah, unless it’s a very small project. So, you just have to look at it and assess yeah, how complicated is the project? How long is it reasonably going to take to get to construction decision? And then jurisdiction is a big factor as well. So, there are some jurisdictions where permitting is quite fast and streamlined. Other places it’s going to take years. Yeah, you look at um and temp depends on the metal, too. I mean, you look at NexGen in the uranium space. Yeah, I think they’re still they’ve got their part of their permits, but yeah, it’s that’s like a 10-year process. So, if somebody has a new Athabasca style uranium project management may tell you, yeah, we can get there in 3 years. It’s going to be 10. So, it it varies. Yeah. Yeah. I I suppose size changes things as well. I mean, some some things smaller things can be built more quickly, I suppose. And also what could happen though is that it could be built more quickly, but it could end up being economically mediocre, right? While still carrying the risks of mining. It’s the good old Rick Rule quote where he says both big mines and small mines have big risks, but it’s only big mines that can make you big money, right? So, what would you be interested in in smaller projects that can be built more quickly now because of this price environment? Yeah, I think yeah, it’s funny because metal prices are so much higher, but the criteria for junior mining still remains the same. And many investors don’t understand that. They they look at something that wasn’t economic say at 2,000 or $2,500 gold and they say, okay, well, now because gold is 5,000 all of a sudden this piece of garbage is yeah, it’s it’s attractive. No, it’s not. It’s still not going to get built. Um it’s yeah, we’re still looking for economic projects, which means size, grade, infrastructure, jurisdiction, yeah, no metallurgical issues. Um you’re looking for the same things. That’s what’s going to get built and that’s what will get built um relatively quickly. Um those will be takeover targets um and those will be what attract financing. Um I guess yeah, existing districts, those are good as well. Um there probably are some opportunities um if companies can if they have high-grade projects where maybe they direct ship ore leverage somebody else’s infrastructure just get to market faster. There will be some some opportunities like that. Um but yeah, I think um to to answer your question in terms of big or small um bigger is almost always better within reason. And then yeah, the other big factor, we talked about money flows and ETFs, but index inclusion is such a big factor. Um and it’s part of what’s going to drive M&A as well. So, if you’re if you’re small you’re not going to make it into an index. You’re always going to have to be marketing, you know, getting people to trade your stock. Otherwise, if you’re a bigger mining company and you can become part of the GDXJ or some index, life becomes a lot easier. You know, you’re constantly you’re seeing your liquidity jump up. Um you’re seeing buying, it’s much easier to finance. Um a lot of benefits. So, yeah, generally bigger is better. I guess um yeah, if maybe if you can find a more obscure small company, um then yeah, there’s more value there, but uh I like I like liquidity. I like size. I I also understand that you like producers right now, that the people who are actually making money off off the these gold prices being where they are. How do you avoid overpaying for them though, especially given that we’re talking about price taking cyclical businesses here, right? Which means that the valuation metrics like let’s say a P/E ratio or even an EV to to FCF ratio, they’re largely useless and and might even be contrarian as in that at these metrics producers look the cheapest at the top at the top of the cycle and then they look the most expensive at the bottom of the cycle. So, so how do you know what the right producer is to bet on right now? Well, you can again, you can just buy the index, right? You can get diversification. Um and it’s a good approach. And so, yeah, if the thesis is gold is going up um at least for the near term um and if the valuation looks fair, um then all things being equal, gold price is going up should mean that gold producers go up. And so, for example, Agnico Eagle, great mining company, announced quarterly results today. Earnings per share were I think 270 and when you look a year ago, I think it was a um it’s a dollar 34 or something. When you look at the increase in the earnings per share and then you look at the share price, the percentage is almost the same, which means on a price-to-earnings basis Agnico is trading today at the same multiple that it was a year ago. If and which is not not well, it’s it’s fair. It’s not pricing in a lot more upside. Um so, if you think that gold price is going to go higher then I think there’s value. If you believe that we’re close to the top and they’re going to go down then yeah, you’re paying for call it $5,000 gold right now. If you think that’s going to go a lot lower, then it’s overvalued. So, that’s kind of the way I I see them. Um yeah, if you don’t want to buy an index, then you can look at um well, the other way to view them is reserves. So, I recently looked at what is the um if you take a company’s reserves and you divide them by the gold price, um how much are you really paying? And we’re we’re near all-time lows. So, again, if you think gold prices are going to go up, those gold reserve ounces should be worth more and you’re not really paying for that. So, that’s why I like the producers. Um if you don’t want to buy the ETF, there are certain things like you know, if you think a company’s going to turn around operations or somebody’s in the penalty box short-term, such such as like Alamos Gold. Um Alamos, yeah, I think it’s a good team with a great track record. They’ve had some short-term um issues, but yeah, they’ve been talking about how they’re going to get to a million ounces a year. I think the market likes that. Um I think they’ll probably outperform other producers if they can pull that off. Um you know, Barrick Gold is an interesting one. They’re they’ve been a laggard up until recently and then Mark Bristow left the company. Um and now they’re talking about separating the high-risk African assets with the debacle they’ve had in Mali um from their low-risk North American assets. And I think yeah, that is something that could serve as value as well. So, you can play some thematic type things like that. Um yeah, you can look at what in some cases now you’re getting gold producers that aren’t purely gold producers. So, some have more exposure to silver, which is is beneficial and actually gives them a premium. Others have more exposure to copper. So, for example, Eldorado just recently announced the deal for foreign mining. It’s going to up their copper production. So, if you like copper, then that’s good, but the market generally didn’t like it and the stock sold off because you they want gold exposure. Um So, you kind of have to, you know, look at um what you’re paying for as well. If if you want just pure gold or gold silver, then yeah, you can stay away from those that might be you know, significant base metals as well. Mhm. What about the ones that are going to waste a bull market, if you will? What what is a tell for you that a company is going to waste a bull market as in doing too much M&A not the right M&A, not doing enough M&A or any M&A? Is it is it blowing out capex, hedging away too much of the upside, political mis- I mean, there’s so many things that companies can do wrong, right? What are kind of the the tells for you that that you’d be looking for before going in? So, the companies seem to be a lot better. Like the big producers are way more disciplined now than they were 15 years ago. Um It I mean to name names, companies like Barrick, Kinross, some horrendous acquisitions. Um and it took them years to recover um from those acquisitions and right the ship. We’re not seeing that now. Um it’s very positive. In fact, you know, all the money they’re printing, they’re using it for things like share buybacks, um some internal growth, but you will see and we are seeing um some M&A, but it’s going to be um probably lower risk jurisdictions, um augmenting maybe operations they already have. Um The other big driver is index inclusion. So, you know, bigger is better in terms of um indices. Um So, I could see Actually, um again to use some specific names, um TD wrote a report, I think, last week on the back of their mining conference. And they had pulled investors as well as corporates on what are some of the big takeover names potentially. And the two companies that seemed to be at the forefront of those discussions were Iamgold and um Artemis. So, predominantly Canadian assets, um so good jurisdictions. Um Artemis, I guess, would be kind of a single asset producer. Iamgold still has some assets in Africa, but they’re winding down. Um and big um big upside in Quebec. So, that makes sense and I don’t think um those would be missteps or misallocations of capital. Somebody will probably maybe buy those and and grow and add reserves. Um you’re probably going to see newspaper for that as well instead of cash. Um But yeah, I think there’s a lot more discipline with the producers now. Um Where I think you’re going to see wasted bull market is in the juniors. And probably, you know, 90% of the juniors shouldn’t be trading where they are. And once the bull market is over, um they’re going to go right back down. Um you know, the the thing that benefits them right now is there’s lots of money available. So, if you’re ever going to drill and see what you’ve got in your properties, now is the time and there will be new discoveries made, but if if you don’t discover something, you know, grow your projects, um advance them in this market, then yeah, you should probably be looking for new projects. Look for a new job. That’s what that’s what your professional opinion is for those people. That’s kind of funny. Um what That’s 90% of the juniors shouldn’t be trading where they are. How do I recognize those 90% or how do I recognize the other 10%? So, again, it’s you know, I think time is the enemy. So, if you’re um Yeah, grassroots exploration is a little bit different because it’s all about discoveries and a discovery in any market um generates value. But if if you’re a an explorer and you have a marginal property, you know, it’s not big enough, um maybe doesn’t have the grade or it’s got metallurgical issues. The mar- this market doesn’t change those things. Um you know, unless you can raise money, which is available, and you can find something better. Um Yeah, just because gold is $5,000 versus say 2,500, um your your project’s still not viable or you know, if you’re if you’re always going to have permitting issues and it’s going to take forever, this probably makes it worse because you know, now people look at metal prices. So, whoever’s opposing your project, um you know, if it’s because of economics, they’re going to be putting their hands out. You know, and jurisdiction, I think, is more important than ever um because the other thing you’re going to see now is um in cases where you have less stable governments, um you know, less rule of law, um in places like Africa, parts of Latin America, you’re going to see new taxes, new export duties, um expropriations. They’re going to change the rules on you because they’re saying, “Hey, look at all the money you’re making. We can’t control our spending, so therefore, you know, you’re in our in our crosshairs.” Um So, you know, even good projects in bad jurisdictions, I think this is this is actually going to be worse for them. Um It’s yeah, whether bull market or bear market, it’s projects with size and grade, no real metallurgical issues, no jurisdictional challenges, you know, those will always have value. Um and retain their value. The stuff that doesn’t meet those criteria, you’re putting lipstick on a pig. And once the bull market is over, and you know, this is again money flows. When the money flows out, um yeah, this everything’s going to go no bid. Then the next thing that’s going to happen is whoever stays in the sector, you’re going to high grade your portfolio, certainly I would. Um You know, maybe I keep money in the sector, but yeah, I’m going to sell the higher risk stuff and buy stuff that looks better. Um And so, yeah, ultimately, well, I think everything goes down. Um you know, the 10% with quality assets will do better. And then you know, the stuff that wasn’t good before is still not going to be good. You make an interesting point on jurisdictions there as well. What’s the What are you looking for? What’s the minimum bar that a gate that a jurisdiction has to pass in order for you to get interested? Yeah, so there’s no specific bar. I mean, the um when you look at um jurisdictions, you know, it varies. In some cases, it’s country. In some cases, it’s you know, you look at the US or Canada, it’s um state or province. Um yeah, I think the Fraser Institute, their rankings, they’re not perfect, but they’re pretty good. And you know, it’s maybe stick to the top half of those at the very least. Yeah, if something is I don’t know, 50 and below, why would you bother? Um Yeah, it’s just not worth taking that risk. But even um in the better jurisdictions, um you have to be very careful with um yeah, what factors are going to have an impact. Um So, you know, even within Canada, um yeah, you can take provinces and say, “Yes, they’re very good.” Well, okay, but you know, what Aboriginal groups are you going to have to deal with? What are historically, you know, what are they What’s their disposition towards mining? Are they in favor of it? Um Are you near environmentally sensitive areas? Um because you know, looking at some projects in the rainforest. Um You know, as soon as you mention that, you know, there’s going to be NGOs that are saying, “We don’t want this to go ahead.” Um you’re naturally going to have opposition. So, it’s um Yeah, jurisdiction is a tricky one. It’s case-by-case basis and unfortunately um Yeah, that’s an area where management doesn’t tell tend to be the most forthright. Everything’s always great. Yeah, everything’s great. It’s like yeah, the government’s supportive. Yeah, the local people, they’re mostly supportive. We don’t see any problems and um Not always the case and it’s it’s hard to vet. Um yeah, unless something is is publicly stated. Um I guess Yeah, I’ve noticed with some companies they do a pretty good job of um early engagement of say First Nations or government groups. Um So, that that helps. Um What is the highest rated jurisdiction for you? Again, Fraser Institute. Oftentimes it’s a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy cuz it’s a bit of a study of of the industry by the industry type of thing. So, I I don’t put a lot of importance on it. What about for yourself personally? What’s your highest rated jurisdiction right now? So, I mean the the easy one is Nevada. It’s like nobody opposes mining. Uh yeah, the government supports it. There’s I don’t know what environmentally you’re going to hurt in Nevada. It’s mostly big desert. Um But yeah, it’s an easy place to develop and build a mine. Um Nevada’s an easy one. Um Yeah, beyond that and it changes, right? It’s um you know, so Chile and Peru used to be great places to build a mine. Well, Peru’s a gong show now. I wouldn’t I’d be reluctant to invest in Peru. >> [gasps] >> Um and then Chile, they’re they’re improving again, but they took a a turn for the worse um politically. Um And you’ve got water issues. So, it’s you know, Chile, you got to look at is there water available? Um even Mexico now actually, you got to look um is there water available? Is there going to be opposition to us using water? And then um you know, security issues. I mean, Mexico, you got a lot of mining, but look at what happened um recently with Vizsla. Um Yeah, 10 engineers went missing. That’s and unfortunately um it looks like they were killed. I mean, that’s not good. Um Now, there may be a project yeah, that’s 50 km away that maybe isn’t as impacted by whatever is going on with the cartels there that’s going to be fine. Um But yeah, anytime you see those things, when you see um well, in that case cartel violence or you see you know, Mexico um to use it again, I mean, talking about water rights and um open pit mining bans, those aren’t good things. Um When you see um countries and there was a wave of this in Latin America where they’re talking about rewriting constitutions. That’s not good for mining. So, you know, those are things you want to avoid. Um with Abra Silver, we’re active in Argentina. So, fortunately Argentina has gone the other way. Um you know, the government is is much more stable than it was before. Um we are in provinces that are pro-mining and not all of them are. And you know, incredibly the government has implemented this incentive regime that actually boosts the value of our project by hundreds of millions of dollars. So, yeah, there are s- Sometimes um when these things are favorable the US. Another good example now, right? Because China has weaponized um some of the rare earths. You’re seeing the American government talk about you know, potentially spending 12 billion dollars to um stockpile some rare earths. They’re putting money into companies um who can secure supply of certain rare earths. So, those are all very positive factors. Um I think you know, Europe is another interesting example, probably more so on the oil and gas side, but maybe on the minerals side as well. Um yeah, with moving away from Russia. What does that mean? I think there’s um there’s a different attitude towards mining and oil and gas is because you’re forced into it um because you don’t necessarily want to rely on Russia or maybe even now the US and certainly China for things that are very important to industry and defense. Mhm. >> [clears throat] >> Yeah. It seems like there’s like I’d like to nitpick on every one of those jurisdictions and and and talk about them all all in depth. Um but in the end it I think it comes on to um in large part to can can can you keep the asset? Like if you discover something, can you keep it to yourself? And can you generate any kind of economic value out of it? As in you know, is it is it it Can you do that on time? Um are you going to be able to do it within in the current gold price and so on and so forth? So, that ties nicely into the beginning of our conversation here. And um I think I feel like there’s a lot more in in in your head that I’d like to that I’d like to get out. So, maybe we should book like a 2 and 1/2 hour conversation next time and and uh do a longer pod here. Um I am looking toward wrapping it up though here, Rob. What am I um What am I forgetting to ask you? What did you come here hoping to talk about that I failed to bring up? No, you I can’t think of anything. I think you know, it’s those are very good questions. Um it’s funny because people have asked me before and they’ve said, “Well, can you come up with a checklist as to what we need to look for in a good mining investment?” And it’s you know, it’s not that simple. Um I mean, if it was that simple, you wouldn’t need you know, me looking at companies and saying, “Yeah, this is good. This is bad.” Um as well as you know, you and your interviews. It’s it’s a very complex industry. You got all these variables. Um you know, but then the good thing is when when they work in your favor um the returns are phenomenal. And that’s the only reason people invest in this, right? So, but that again going back to valuation um yeah, that’s part of why there’s still lots of juniors that I don’t like today. I mean, maybe some are trade at best. They’ve got momentum. But you know, I always look at things in terms of risk-reward. You know, the reward needs to be there. It needs to be justified by the risk I’m taking. Um risk by very very definition in mining is always high. Um And so, yeah, it’s um you know, we need we need those tailwinds in terms of commodity prices. Um those certainly help. And then within that, yeah, you just uh Yeah, unfortunately, you have to look at a lot of companies to find the good ones where yeah, they’ve got the best chance of reward. And it’s just you know, don’t take risks on metallurgy, jurisdiction um you know, bad management, anything you don’t need to. Um minimize the risk, maximize the rewards. It’s that simple. Yeah. I wish it was that simple. Um I think we might not I I I wouldn’t have to be a podcaster for a living if it was that simple, I think. But that’s maybe a conversation in and of itself. Uh no, I do I really do appreciate you stopping by, Rob. It is uh thewealthyminer.com for people who want to know more and yeah, thank you so much for doing this. Thank you. It’s fun.

Pitch Summary:
Carl Zeiss Meditec AG is currently trading at a historically low valuation, with a P/E ratio of approximately 17x compared to its 10-year average of 43x. Despite recent challenges, including a significant drop in EBITA and management instability, the company remains fundamentally strong with a robust balance sheet and a strategic focus on high-demand medical technology products. The company’s foundation ownership structure ensures stability and long-term focus, while its recent acquisition of DORC enhances its recurring revenue streams. The market’s current lack of confidence presents a buying opportunity, as the company’s strategic initiatives and demographic trends support future growth.

BSD Analysis:
The company’s recent financial performance has been impacted by external factors such as currency fluctuations and geopolitical trade barriers, particularly in China. However, the underlying demand for its ophthalmic and microsurgical products remains strong, driven by global demographic trends like aging populations and increased access to eye care. The company’s strategic realignment towards customer centricity and operational efficiency is expected to improve margins over the medium term. While the management transitions pose a risk, the foundation’s governance provides a stabilizing force. Investors should monitor the appointment of a permanent CEO and the company’s ability to articulate a clear strategy for navigating the Chinese market.

Pitch Summary:
Team Internet has initiated a strategic review to unlock its sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) value, having received multiple approaches for parts of its business. The company is particularly focused on its Domains, Identity & Software segment, which management believes could be worth more than the current market value of the entire group. Recent trading updates have been promising, with discussions on the sale of this segment progressing well, suggesting potential upside if the sale materializes.

BSD Analysis:
The strategic review by Team Internet could lead to significant value realization if the company successfully divests its high-value segments. The focus on the Domains, Identity & Software arm indicates management’s confidence in its intrinsic value, which could attract premium offers. The market’s current undervaluation of the company presents an opportunity for investors if the strategic alternatives lead to successful transactions. However, the execution risk remains, and investors should monitor the progress of these discussions closely. The company’s ability to stabilize and grow its remaining operations post-divestiture will be crucial for long-term value creation.

Pitch Summary:
OLB Group is on the verge of spinning off its crypto mining unit, Dmint. This move is speculative and represents a high-risk investment due to the company’s need for additional capital. The spin-off could create volatility and potential opportunities for investors who are comfortable with the risks associated with the cryptocurrency sector.

BSD Analysis:
The impending spin-off of Dmint could unlock value for OLB Group, but it also introduces significant risks given the volatile nature of the cryptocurrency market. Investors should be cautious of the company’s financial health, as both OLB and Dmint will require substantial capital infusions to sustain operations. The speculative nature of this investment means that potential returns could be high, but so are the risks of capital loss. Investors should weigh the potential for growth in the cryptocurrency sector against the financial instability of the company.

Pitch Summary:
Versant is currently experiencing a decline in stock price, down roughly 30%, due to index selling as it is not part of the S&P500. Despite being described as a ‘melting ice-cube’, the company has a significant market cap of $4.7 billion, with $2 billion in net debt and generates $1.0-1.5 billion in free cash flow annually. The investment thesis is based on the potential for free cash flow stabilization, which could allow investors to recoup their investment in 5-6 years.

BSD Analysis:
The current market dynamics suggest that Versant’s stock is undervalued due to external pressures rather than intrinsic weaknesses. The company’s strong cash flow generation provides a cushion and potential for recovery if operational efficiencies are improved. The diverse portfolio of cable networks could offer strategic value, especially if management can leverage these assets more effectively. Investors should consider the potential for a turnaround if the company can stabilize its cash flows and reduce debt. The risk remains in the ‘melting ice-cube’ narrative, but the financial metrics suggest a potential for value realization.

Description:
Start earning interest in gold: https://Monetary-Metals.com/Lin Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, explains …

Transcript:
I have to call it a specul speculative frenzy. Um because we all seeing we all seeing and hearing the same things. The plumbing is is breaking apart. The plumbing is uh doesn’t work. Volatility is going up. Prices are going up. Banks are quoting less size to each other for physical. The risk of something uh something breaking is uh is really close. >> With gold out stabilizing around $5,000, will we head for another rally soon or is this the top? We’ll find out what’s next for gold, precious metals, uh, oil, and the entire commodity complex with Oleie Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. Welcome to the show, Ole. Good to see you. >> Thank you very much, David. Thank you for having me. >> Been a fan of your work for many years, so it’s a pleasure to finally be able to host you and talk to you today. Uh, let’s start with your analysis on where we are currently in this commodity cycle. Now, you told me offline that we are perhaps starting the third commodity bull cycle since the 1970s. And I like to just pull up a chart to show you what that may or may not look like. So, uh, here we have, uh, let me just switch this to gold. Uh, if you can take a look now, Ollie, uh, we are currently at $5,000. Uh, this would be, uh, well, this is not, uh, let’s just take a longer term chart. um this would be the third major uh cycle peak since 1980 then 2011 uh then now and so if we want to discount two uh 2020 because it’s only been uh a couple years and 2020 was not a huge rise relative to what we have now only if this is the third cycle some would argue that we’re ex already exhibiting the cycle top as it’s been stabilizing around 5,000. It’s already corrected 20% in one day, which is exactly what happened in 2011 before it stabilized and then went down another 50% in the following year. Does this look similar to what’s happening in 2012, Ollie? Well, first of all, uh clearly when you look at the chart, you you can’t help suffering a little bit of vertigo because that straight line up that we’ve seen now in the past few months uh would would make anyone a little bit nervous and hesitant uh about getting in getting involved and and I think that’s probably where we are right now that we are that we I think the underlying reasons for for holding gold are most certainly still relevant. They are still there. They are long-term and they are the reason why we’re seeing investors moving towards the gold market. But at the same time having run as fast as we have in the short period of time, there is a there is an argument that we need to consolidate now and and just basically see how where where it takes us. I just put out a a on on on X early today just um just just a technical observation that I’ve had I’ve watched for many years. If you go all the way back to 2005, every time gold has moved more than 20% away from its 200 day moving average, we have we have on several occasions in the last 20 years since seen the correction in gold, taking it back down to uh to to to the 200 day moving average or or perhaps even overshooting to the downside. The uh the move we saw last month uh took us more than 30% away from the from that average and right now we’re around 22. it that could indicate to me that we’re still a little bit overstretched on a from a technical fund basis, but from a longer term uh basis. I think gold is still most certainly worth valid to hold. So if if someone asks me what to do at this point level, I’ll just basically just take it easy. I would say um I would not if you hold gold sit with it. If you are looking to get involved, just just take it be a little bit patient here. See where see where it takes us. uh because it it just show a little bit of signs that we we may just need to see a longer or perhaps an even a deeper correction. But I see that I see that as a healthy sign because then we get this kind of uh vertical uh line out of the way. >> What is Saxo Bank’s view on gold and what is their uh what is your forecast? Uh Oie, we have major banks in the US for example being very bullish. JP Morgan uh has updated its forecast now to $6,000 target um in a special report earlier February uh for end of year 2026. So 5,000 is not even the end according to them. What is your view? >> No, I think that’s it’s not most certainly not the end. We we had 5,500 but with the recent move where we actually basically all touched that level already we had to take a reook and uh with that in mind I think 6,000 is within reach in the next 12 months but it does obviously depend as well how deep the correction is going to be. If we if we’re doing if we drop another thousand from here then then it will be a little bit harder harder stretch to reach within 12 months. But uh but I think the the the the reasons again for for diversifying and and looking at gold as a as a as a bit of a lottery ticket or safe haven or insurance premium that’s for that’s it’s not a lottery ticket. That’s if you buy a $20,000 call as I hear someone is buying right now in the gold market. That’s a lottery ticket. But uh it’s an insurance premium against something starting to crack elsewhere. and and I think we got plenty of uncertainties in the world right now both politically and economically that that warrants such cautiousness and and and that’s that’s why the the uh the potential for for breaking above the 5,500 again reaching up towards 6,000 uh can most certainly not be ruled out. >> Let’s talk about these other cracks. The fact that gold has risen so fast so quickly, silver as well and then stabilized around current levels. Does that signal to you that there may be a little less uncertainty going forward? Perhaps there may be less volatility in the stock markets than a few months ago. We’ve already had major corrections in some of the MAG7 stocks in the last two months. slowly. >> Yeah, we’re seeing we’re seeing a very uh aggressive rotation right now in the US stock market and uh and and I’m I think once the dust settles, the market’s probably run ahead of itself in terms of how much the AI rollout is going to mean to profitability and to jobs and and some of these company these um these tech companies potential earnings going forward. So I think we we probably gone too far at the at this point and there will be a realization. So we could see a rebound in the in the stock market, but at the same time the there are some there’s also rotation going on. You can see the MAX 7, they’re basically flat on the year. They’re only up 10% in the last year. So when you have a a such a significant sector or or market cap that’s not really performing that basically means investors around the world who invest into or automatically invest into a world index they they they end up holding quite a lot of these max 7 stocks and and I think there slowly realization that maybe some divers further diversification is is needed. So we’re seeing a rotation within the US stock market but we’re also seeing a rotation away from the US stock market. We’re seeing emerging markets doing doing very well. Some uh some spots in Europe as well uh recovering but but generally the AI is I think at this point in time markets pricing in too much in terms of what what impact it will have. It will be have a major impact but it’s not going to happen overnight and some of these stocks basically the drops we’ve seen more or less reflect that something is going to impact within the next 6 to 12 months. It’s probably going to take longer than that. >> Okay. Okay, what is the signal relative uh when it comes to inflation uh so right now uh inflation has been stabilizing again the last CPI report from January in the US showed inflation headline inflation at 2.4% year-over-year slightly down from the previous month’s 2.5%. And what does this mean for gold? Well, it means uh first of all that the that the pressure from the White House to uh to cut rates uh is probably an easier decision to make uh when we have price pressures easing. So um so the market is is now once again looking for at least two cuts uh this year uh before October and uh perhaps even uh on a good day pricing in three cuts before the end of the year. So uh so that that cut is back in in in in focus and and ultimately before we started looking at all the other reasons why gold started to rally in in 22 especially when central banks uh started to uh to buy up and they are not as interest rate sensitive as traditional investors were previously and also before Chinese investors really jumped on board. um we we had the interest rates being a key driver for for gold. that that one is still there because it it’s there’s no doubt that when when the funding cost comes down and the the cost of holding a non-paying non-coupon interest paying asset comes down then then that does underlying benefit and that also opens up the door for for some types of investors who are who are faced with this carry the negative carry and and and probably up until the the first rate cut started last year were not able to to invest into gold simply because the carry or the cost of of of holding was too high and I think That’s also one of the reasons why ETF demand only really start to recover when when interest rates started to get get cut uh after inflation peaked. >> Before we continue with the video, let’s talk about today’s sponsor, Monetary Metals. You already know why people hold gold, because it’s real money. But what if your gold could do more than just sit in a vault? Well, that’s where Monetary Metals comes in. They offer a way for you to earn a yield on your gold paid in physical gold. Through their leasing marketplace, you can earn up to 4% yield per year in gold. Instead of paying storage fees, your gold works for you. And because that yield is paid in gold, not cash, your stack grows no matter what the dollar does. Thousands of clients already earn a monthly yield in gold through monetary medals. So don’t just hold it. Put it to work. Go to monetary-metals.com/lin link down below or scan the QR code here to learn more and start earning real gold on your gold today. What about uh if the uh long end of the uh yield curve, so the 10 year or the 30-year continues to rise oie? So um it’s been uh the 10-year has risen substantially since 2020. It’s been stabilizing around 4 4% 4 and a.5% um ever since the last couple years. Oie, what does this mean for uh precious metals if yields continue to rise? Will that put downward pressure on the price as investors flock to fixed income products? >> Well, if we go back 5 years, uh then the answer would definitely have been yes. uh rising interest rates also further out the curve meaning rising real yields uh is is not uh has historically been uh been bad for gold. But I think right now the the market is viewing the long end of the curve as much as a as a as a as as a focus on on the US on the outlook for the US economy and the US debt situation and uh we we’ve seen in we’ve seen situation in the last 18 months where yields have been long and yields have been going up but gold has been going up at the same time simply because some of the reason why gold has been going up is is this is the worry about the the debt situation and we’re also seeing some divestments going on uh or investors around the world divesting the their holdings in in treasuries. So it’s it’s it’s so the fact the yields are going can go up and has been going up at at certain points as has been as much been taken as a as a as as a sign of of increased risk in the in the government market and and with that in mind if we do see a further rise in in long yields from here even at a time where the short end yields will come down. So the curve is is steepening. I think that will still could or that will still be supportive for gold for for those reason that it’s it’s taken as as the market basically asking for a bigger uh insurance or bigger risk premium to invest in the long end of the US uh US curve simply because of the the debt creation that they currently seeing no signs that that there’s any political will to bring it under control from either side of the aisle of the the Congress. So who will be contributing to gold’s rise to the next level? Will it be central banks primarily? Will it be investors from Asia or investors from Europe and North America? >> I think all of them. um the central bank demand uh may start to slow simply because the uh the the value of that gold portfolio has risen to the extent it has and that basically means the percentage of their holdings in gold relatively to other assets in in most of that is is being in bonds has risen to the point where they may start to say well we don’t need a big allocation into gold at this point in time given the high valuation we have on our gold portfolio or gold holdings so that may slow but I think underlying it’s it will still be there. There are still central banks who has not been been buying into gold who may consider as as something they need to do in order to diversify. Asia remains a strong buyer and uh especially in China and as long as we don’t see any any bottoming out in the property market in in China which has now been a downturn for the last four years and has been one of the major triggers for for investors moving into alternative assets away from properties into gold and silver. As long as we don’t see any any recovery there then the investors in China will be looking for alternatives. Stock market has not been been performing that great either. So uh so we need to see that uh that change in in in China and until it does then demand for gold and silver I’ll say especially gold will continue to uh to remain strong and then just to look across the world asset managers are still under allocated in gold. Even 12 months ago many asset managers had no gold in their holdings in their portfolios. That was only until I start receiving phone calls from the investors asking how much gold do we have and and when the the answer was zero then that basically started to to bring some some changes and I think we that is still a a process that is ongoing and and it’s also one of the reasons why I I strongly well strongly I believe stronger in gold than I do believe in silver at these levels simply because gold is is a monetary metal it can go to 10,000 20,000 it doesn’t really matter silver cannot go much higher before industrial demand starts to be negatively impacted and that basically means it’s only investors that that can then carry it forward and there will be scrap coming back into the market. So I think the next the next rally when we see that I think will be gold driven once again with silver potentially struggling if we got start to get back to 100 and above 100. Just on that note before we talk about silver, will we have a scenario where retail investors from the west matter more than the Chinese buyers in the next couple weeks? Right now it’s lunar holidays and so for China and uh and Chinese speaking regions we have uh 10 days of no trading activity. What kind of data will you be looking for? Well, that’s a really good question and good point, David, because we are we we have seen in the last 12 to 18 months that the that the east has been demand from the east has become increasingly important that the traditional investors in the west have have kind of yielded the passed on baton to to investors in the east especially in China and now with those markets closed and uh and also ahead of that we saw this a lot of speculative frenzy both into gold and especially silver. some of that was rolled back or scaled back ahead of this long holiday break. Who who wants to carry risk when you can’t can’t get in or out for such an extended period of time. So the next week will be interesting to see how how the metal how the metals perform. I I think there could be a risk that we could be drifting lower um simply because we don’t have that uh that that pull. But at the same time when we get back uh in in a week’s time or so and we get into early March that’s really when we need to uh I think we should look to that period for to get the a feel for the the true and underlying strength in the market. The next kind of two weeks will probably be quite a little quite a bit of noise because we simply don’t have all actors uh in operating in the market. So, uh, so I’ll be just probably be sitting on my hands a little bit here for for the next week or so till we at least get the Chinese investors back and see how they respond to whatever price level that they meet when they come back. >> Let’s talk about silver. Now, you wrote that uh there’s a large short position in uh in uh in silver from the from the Chinese side. So, take a look at what you wrote for Saxo Bank. Uh, positioning matters again beyond seasonal effects. Growing attention is being paid to positioning dynamics in China’s futures market. Recent reporting by Bloomberg has identified Zonkai futures linked to veteran trader Bianing as holding what appears to be the largest net short position in SHFE silver. The reported scale equivalent to several hundred tons of silver is notable in the market that a structurally small and prone to sharp price dislocations. You wrote this uh February 5th, right pretty much a day after the big uh silver draw down. Um, so let’s talk about the short position. Is it still relevant 2 weeks later? >> That’s that’s a good question. Um, and and yes, I mentioned it because it was reported and uh and it’s just interesting to see how uh how how the this position this kind of size can be can be juggled around in a market which is relatively small. Um and I was actually from from when I read that I was actually mostly more worried about a squeeze to the upside simply because once it became known we saw that in nickel a couple of years ago where where there’s a massive short that was uh basically caught by by the exchange raing margins and so on. But um so far we hasn’t really seen any any major major impact. But um I’m I’m still a bit uh perplexed that uh if there is really is a position of a short of this size considering how the market’s been been behaving recently. But uh but it it it just goes to show that has been a lot of speculative interest coming into the market. Uh this is one single big short, but against that a major amount of uh of small longs all adding up to a major long uh that really helped drive these uh drive silver to the to the extent it big did back in January to the to the point where basically it ran out of uh it ran out of oxygen and ran out of uh runway and and it had to stop and we had to see a correction. Well, because also simply at that point the plumbing broke and I know there’s a lot of uh physical only focused traders who who hate the paper market and say we we just need to kill the paper market so we can we can get a real price discovery. What but I think I’m I’m sorry to say without the paper market we don’t have we don’t have any discovery at all because it is really the the the liquidity provider to the market and a short in the futures market maybe a long in the cash market. So you never really know exactly what the what the what the position is. But what we did know what we did note um in towards the end of January and and actually I sent out a warning to our clients on the Thursday morning when uh when they started to correct in this in the afternoon timing wise that was not something I hadn’t visited at all. But I I just sent out a warning simply because my traders were saying the plumbing is is breaking apart. The plumbing is uh doesn’t work. Volatility is going up. Prices are going up. banks are quoting less size to each other for physical and that basically means we into a situation where where where the risk of something breaking is is really close and we saw that as well with the with the significant amount of call buying going into the SLV ETF as someone had to sell these calls and those who sold the calls had to cover their delta by buying silver and as the uh these prices more or less moved into moved into the money within very few few trading days because the rally was as strong as it was, these guys end up with a massive long delta that uh that suddenly had to get unwind when the prices corrected and into a market where there’s no liquidity. So, so when the plumbing breaks then we we all have to worry because then we uh we may if you’re long and you may enjoy the move but uh but the correction can be very very violent simply because liquidity disappears. >> Yes. Well, investors are also concerned about a potential squeeze on the COMX. So, Comx registered uh silver dropping below 100 million ounces. According to this particular article, official depository statistics from the COMX dated February 11th confirms a major draw down in silver stocks. The exchange reported a single day negative adjustment of 3.2 million ounces in the registered category. As a result, total registered silver fell to 98 million ounces. That level is below the closely watched 100 million ounce threshold. Um you’ve written about this before. How likely is it that we do get a scenario uh in which the Comx does not have enough silver to cover demand? In other words, a silver squeeze. Is this something that we should be watching for? >> I think it’s something we should be uh slightly worried about, but at the same time, it’s not something that I think will happen because ultimately we have to remember that Comx sets the rules and if they if if they need to change the rules in order to avoid it happening, then they will. Um what right now we are seeing open interest in the March contract coming down fairly fairly hard. It did it did slow down a bit on Friday. There was not a much that big a reduction in in in the March open interest and that does clearly needs to come down quite significantly in the next couple of weeks. But we also have to remember that the it is not on the actual first notice day that uh that we we look at it it the notice period last runs for a whole month. So there is there’s quite a lot of time for for for these uh for the both long and shorts to be be reduced. So I’m not too too concerned that it will happen. But there’s no doubt that with the kind of interest we see in the silver market and with the with the inventory levels or the deliverable uh stockpile as as low as it is then the mark will if if it’s if it’s no problem if there’s no problem in March then the investors will look towards May and say well then maybe it might be May when when things uh when things happen. So we need to see inventory levels uh start to move up again. They have been moved to London in in recent weeks. Well, there’s been a draw in the comx market into the London market which inadvertently has actually helped stabilize the market because liquidity is returning to the physical market and that’s helping to bring some of the uh the the the lease rates and the the carry rates uh more under control but um it is something we need to watch but at this point in time I’m not I’m not too concerned. I think the open interest will continue to come down and come down fast in the coming days. Well, in your opinion, what was the major contributor to silver rising dramatically from $30 just uh $35 uh in September to $50 shortly after and then a straight line from $50 to $100 in the matter of two months. Um that may have some people say that that may have not been purely higher demand. It’s not possible within a short amount of time if it’s purely demand driven. It must have been a structural deficit or perhaps a major shortage somewhere that drove this up. What do you think? >> I think it was speculation about a major shortage that uh that basically collectively helped drive a lot of uh small investors into the market. uh um and and if you if you if if if there’s enough buying at the same time in in even though it’s smaller amount then it all adds up and and when you get this uh extreme amount of of buying in the call in in call options uh on some of the major major ETFs then then the move starts. I think actually when we moved up towards the $50 that at that that point we did see some buying from uh from industrialists uh industrial users simply because normally in normal markets if you the best cure for high price is a high price because it it lowers demand but this point the when we at the same time talking about the the potential deficit there could have been some some industrial demand simply because they felt they had to buy it in order to ensure that they didn’t run out of silver for for the coming period. So I think that was part of the the initial phase of the the rally when we when we broke 50. But then uh but but then the acceleration we saw when we we moved above that was simply a market where liquidity was starting to to dry become uh dry out and that meaning it was it was a lot easier to uh to to push it at the same time. you really want and and at the same time I think there’s also attempts to sell into it which then got stopped out and that’s what we see when we have a bull market that quite a lot of the time quite a lot of the buying that takes it to new highs are shorts that need that got got it wrong and need to get back in or get out get out of their shorts. So it’s just a combination of of many many different things. We are seeing the we are we still need to uh to see whether what the impact on the demand side will be but also the supply side because um so far this year the saw the sil institute recently uh come out with a forecast looking for a deficit of around 2 was it 20 I can’t remember now >> two I can’t remember the number but uh >> that’s okay it was um >> it was when we look at that that obviously on on paper looks uh looks pretty uh looks like a high number, but we need to work out what kind of industrial uh demand destruction impact these higher prices will have. And I think it’ll probably take time because first of all, industrial users will pass on the increases to the consumer. And if they start to say, well, we’re not going to pay pay these levels, then eventually production is going to be negatively impacted. And that could slow lead to a slowdown in in industrial demand much more than than what we we seen we’ve seen here. >> I mean the second time. Yeah. Go on. >> Oh. Oh, sorry. I was going to say well look yes we we do know that the silver market has been in a deficit for quite some time according to the silver institute but the silver institute has been sorry has been publishing a deficit number for many years now. Uh, and what’s taken people by surprise is the fact that this move happened this quickly, this suddenly. How would you explain that? >> Simply, well, I I have to call it a specul speculative frenzy. Um, because we’re all seeing we’re all seeing and hearing the same things. And then um and not not to um not to look uh look in in in in different directions but um there are some there has been we we’ve seen a bit of the the squeeze mentality and we saw on with Bitcoin as well in in in in the past 5 to 10 years where where groups basically they’re all talking about some some elusive numbers that we can reach and obviously if someone if if you start thinking well the silver can go to a thousand and it’s only trading at Asia of you want to be in get involved. And so with that in mind, I think it’s it’s very healthy that we’re just seeing a bit of a reality check now on on prices and just see it stabilizes and and if we’ve moved high again from here, well then it does indicate that the underlying demand is still there and then it’s it’s justified. >> Well, can you make the argument that the deficit in supply demand um dynamics don’t really matter all that much because like I said earlier, I’ve I’ve been noticing that they’ve published the Silver Institute has published a deficit number for many years already. this price has basically stayed flat up until last year and then all of a sudden due to a speculative frenzy like you said the price shot up. So it had nothing to do with the fact that all of a sudden it’s been in a supply deficit. It’s been a supply deficit for years already. Oolie. >> Yeah, it has. And and what what probably uh helped trigger the the focus on this the deficit was the was the shipments of silver to New York ahead of or the threat of tariffs announced. We saw that in copper last year and we also saw a lot of sh silver suddenly being shipped and that helped create this tightness in the London market last uh August or October I believe it was and that’s really when it when it kicked off in earnest and that was the tightness in the physical market because silver was was being shipped to to New York or to the US ahead of a potential tariff announcement and that’s really when when the the focus resurfaced and then then the speculative interest that basically takes over and China has mostly been a been a major part of this. You only have to look at some of the uh some of the funds traded offered to Chinese investors. There’s one that is the only pure silver uh fund is is just a mind-blowing. It just uh on the Thursday before the uh the Friday collapse in in January, it traded a 50% premium uh to the underlying value of of the positions it held. So investors in China were prepared to pay 50% above the underlying value. That tells me that this is purely speculative because if you just sat down and actually looked at what it is you’re buying, would you buy 50? Would you pay 50% above an underlying price to get involved hoping that someone else would pay 50% or higher even even higher tomorrow? that that that is the biggest sign that when you get into a frenzy where you have to be a bit careful and the result of this was that the uh that the plumbing in this uh fund broke and on a Friday the market was shut and then it was basically limit down four days in a row 10% every day meaning it was just sitting there you couldn’t get out so um so we need to watch very closely what’s what happens in in China silver inventories in Shanghai is is also being depleted at this point in time so so we need to see supply come into the market from somewhere. Whether that’s coming from scrap, that remains to be seen. But now now I kind of I’ve remembered the number as well because I was just reading a Danish paper the weekend and there’s a small um there’s a Danish um shop basically taking buying and sell selling silver mostly buying it and they basically um said that they have taken on taken in between four and five tons of silver in in the last 3 months and if you look at the global deficit I believe it’s 2,000 tons then if four or five tons has come in just in Denmark which is a country which is not known at all for its trading in precious metals and you and then you and you you scale that up to the to the global space then there will be scrap coming into the market in the next three to four months and then we have to get a at that point in time I would have a better idea or better view of whether this deficit is actually something we need to be concerned about. >> And so finally on silver before we move on and close off the conversation on silver you said that it may not rise as much as gold. You’re more bullish on gold. So where does silver land for you end of the year? Um, we’re at $76 now. >> Well, I think I I I prefer to look at silver as a as a relative uh play to gold. I mean, that I know that a lot of people don’t want they they look it as an individual metal, but I think the if you if you look at the the last 20 30 years, silver, the gold silver ratio has average been averaging around 70. I know that if you are really bullish on silver, you look way further back than that where the ratio was was perhaps as low as low as 20. But let’s just focus on the last 30 years. The ratio has been around 70. Uh we we we dropped down I believe as low as was it 45 or something recently. Now we’re back into the 60s. So based on based on on on gold going back to say 6,000 within the next uh next year. Um then I could see silver stabilize perhaps in the in the $100 region. But uh I’m I’m I’m well as you can get from this there. I’m certainly not the $200 uh band that that that some are looking at. Um, so 100 I think is is potentially as far as we can get. >> Did you you’ve been in the industry for many years. Did you anticipate yourself saying the sentence, I anticipate silver stabilizing around $100 by 2026? >> No, not at all. Um, I traded my first silver 25 years ago. Yeah, probably nearly 30 years ago for a hedge fund in London. And uh, that was we traded uh, gold back then at what, $300 and silver at less than 10. So uh so what we have seen this year is is most certainly phenomenal and and um I think there’s probably still some people that in the years from now the time they’ll look back and say well wow look at that peak we had before the collapse. I don’t think that I think times now are different. I think we can manage to to hold on to most of these gains but uh but we we need to see uh probably first of all some consolidation but yeah it is a it is a a phenomenal level that we’ve seen. Finally, on uh oil, the fact that it’s been trending lower ever since 2022, uh down pretty much 50% from its 2022 highs. What does that signal to you about the economy? >> Well, it’s probably single mo mostly the fact that the that production has managed to to keep up with with demand. Um demand has been rising. Uh we we haven’t really had any any down years. uh maybe except the recession around the the brief recession around co times but the demand is is has been going up and continues to go up. So uh so what we’ve been we basically I would say we’ve been blessed with cheap oil and cheap energy because oil at in the 60s historically inflation adjusted everything it is such a cheap uh cheap source of energy and um and the question is really how long will that can that be maintained for now we have a situation where there’s enough enough being produced not only from OPEC but also from nonopc um some worries just in the short term about geopolitical risks uh to supply but but generally the market is uh is is supplied has has got ample supply. But looking ahead, we still have to if if the projections are that in that demand will continue to rise perhaps at a slower pace than what we’ve seen in in in the last 5 to 10 years. But if demand continues to rise and we have um the lowhanging fruit has been has been picked. So basically there’s going to be depletion rates in the order of 6 to 8 million barrels on an annual basis. We need a lot of investment to go into the energy market, energy market in in order to ensure we have that oil coming out of the ground. And I think current prices uh is simply not high enough because all these energy companies they they witnessed an experienced inflation as well, labor cost uh cost of metals, cost of their raw materials, everything has been going up. So we need higher prices over time in order to just in order to ensure that we have supplies. So uh so I think the 60s I think we should enjoy them, enjoy it while they last. Um, if we look to if we talk again a couple of years from now, I would imagine that we’re seeing uh oil trading at least up into the 80s, perhaps in the ’90s. >> How significant is the Middle East uh relative to oil? Trump, President Trump over the past weekend has been advocating for a regime change in Iran, which is a 180°ree change in stance. By the way, a couple months ago in 2025, he said he’s not supporting any a regime change. Now, he is vocally advocating for it. uh the battle group carrier has already been pulled back so tensions are dying down a little bit. But if Iran falls to a different regime, does that play a role on the oil price? Oh, it does indeed. Uh absolutely. Um and and that’s really what the that’s really what what makes it very difficult to predict because uh one thing is uh wanting a regime change in in a far away country called Iran. Another thing is what that regime regime change would mean in the short term for consumers in the US. And I know it’s it’s um it’s a bit cynical to look at the look at this way, but we are in a year where where there’s a midterm election coming up. And and US voters are I’m sure they care more about uh domestic fuel prices than they care about what happens in Iran. So with that in mind, I I struggle to see any any action that could uh could cause a disruption uh from the Middle East. And but if that does happen, then uh we’re not going to look at the at Brents the global benchmark trading below 70. Then we will spike above 70 for for a period of time because not only Iran supplies could be impacted also supplies from other uh states sending their crude through the straight of Hamus close to Iran. So so it the next couple weeks will be extremely interesting to um to to to watch. But I I just I just have to remain cynical at this point in time saying, well, it’s not in the US interest to uh or at least in the president’s interest to cause gasoline prices to to move higher. Also, we saw the CPI, the inflation print last week. One of the reasons why it was lower than expected was low energy prices. So, at least that’s one one uh one box that can be ticked in in terms of what has been promised and and delivered. So uh risking that I think is something that uh there really has to be some very strong arguments within the administration to go ahead and and cause a disruption that causes higher prices. >> Okay. Excellent. Thank you very much Ole. We appreciate your thoughts. Uh let’s uh end the discussion here and we’ll follow up next time. Where can we follow your work? >> Well as as you mentioned I work at Saxa Bank in Copenagen. We are global online uh online bank. We have our websites where where we post everything. So that can be found on on uh on home.saxinsights. Otherwise um I post everything I do also on on X and on Substack. My X is uh Ollie Ole S Hansen with an E and that’s where I post everything besides what I post on the on the Saxo websites. >> Okay, thank you very much. We’ll put the links down below. So make sure to follow the Saxo website there. Appreciate you once more, Ole. Speak next time. Take care for now. >> Thank you very much. >> Thank you for watching. 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Pitch Summary:
FMC Corporation is undergoing a strategic review amidst weak financial results and a challenging outlook for 2026. The review includes potential asset sales aimed at reducing debt by $1 billion, while also focusing on stabilizing its legacy portfolio and managing the decline of Rynaxypyr post-patent. Despite these challenges, there are growth opportunities in new active ingredients, which the market has yet to fully price in. The company’s decent asset base provides a foundation for recovery, presenting a potential opportunity for investors willing to navigate the current uncertainties.

BSD Analysis:
FMC’s strategic review is a critical step in addressing its financial challenges and repositioning the company for future growth. The focus on debt reduction and asset optimization is likely to improve its balance sheet and operational efficiency. However, the market’s skepticism reflects concerns over the execution risks and the timeline for recovery. The company’s ability to capitalize on new active ingredients and manage the post-patent decline of key products will be pivotal in restoring investor confidence. Close monitoring of management’s strategic decisions and market reactions will be essential in evaluating FMC’s long-term investment potential.