| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
Advisory Research maintains a bullish outlook on global equities, driven by their thesis of coordinated fiscal stimulus across major regions creating a multi-year reacceleration cycle. The firm's concentrated, high-conviction approach delivered strong results in 2025, with European equities nearly doubling SPY performance at +31.4% versus +17.7%. They expect this outperformance to continue in 2026, supported by Germany's fundamental shift from fiscal austerity to expansion, targeting 5-6% of GDP in deficit spending on defense and infrastructure. The manager anticipates higher structural market volatility as growth surprises to the upside and inflation becomes stickier in the US, potentially pushing the 10-year Treasury closer to 5%. Key themes include AI transitioning from speculation to practical applications, nuclear fusion breakthroughs, oil prices climbing to $60-70 per barrel, and deregulation across financial services and energy sectors. The firm views current global growth prospects as underappreciated by investors, maintaining very bullish positioning on global equities through their disciplined investment process focused on cash flows over earnings and accretive capital deployment.
Global economic reacceleration driven by coordinated fiscal stimulus across major regions will create attractive opportunities for concentrated, high-conviction dividend strategies, with Europe particularly well-positioned to outperform the US through fundamental paradigm shift toward fiscal expansion.
Manager expects global reacceleration driven by fiscal stimulus across major regions, with Europe positioned to outperform US again in 2026. Anticipates higher structural market volatility, sticky US inflation, and AI transitioning from speculative to practical applications. Remains very bullish on global equities viewing current environment as slow-moving multi-year process underappreciated by investors.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8 2026 | 2025 Q4 | IEV, SPY | AI, Deregulation, Europe, Fiscal, global, inflation, nuclear, oil | - | Manager believes 2026 will be the year AI efforts become less speculative and more focused on real-world applications. Views generative AI as the general-purpose technology of our era, possessing unique ability to improve over time and serve as a platform for new innovations. Expects AI efforts to become more practical and productive by second half of 2026. European equities nearly doubled SPY performance in 2025, returning +31.4% versus +17.7% for US. Europe has become a story of breadth with 8 of 11 sectors outpacing S&P 500. Fundamental paradigm shift in Germany abandoning fiscal austerity for fiscal excess, targeting defense and infrastructure spending. Manager expects inflation to remain well anchored in all regions except the US where consumers with extra cash could drive inflation higher. Combination of refunds and lower withholdings will frontload benefits into 2026. US inflation may get stickier as economy reaccelerates and government stimulates struggling low-income consumers. AI race catalyzes nuclear fusion research with at least three private-sector companies expected to achieve Net Energy Gain milestone. One company expected to reach Sustained High-Power Density Operation viable for fusion power plant by late 2026. Oil prices expected to climb into $60-70 per barrel range by Q4 2026 as demand drivers exhibit firmer underlying consumption amid more constrained supply growth than widely assumed by market that believes oil is oversupplied. Red tape expected to be cut at pace across Financial Services, AI/Tech Services and Energy sectors under guise of National Security to prop up economic growth before midterms. Great Financial Crisis capital requirements expected to be watered down, benefitting banks the most. |
| Oct 8 2025 | 2025 Q3 | - | AI, Global Equities, inflation, interest rates, monetary policy | - | The letter argues the global economy is undergoing an inflection rather than stagflation, with softening labor markets and contained inflation creating room for rate cuts and policy support. Dividend-paying equities are positioned to benefit as income, balance sheet strength, and cash-flow resilience become more valuable amid slower growth and macro uncertainty. Global dividends are framed as an attractive way to capture equity upside while dampening volatility through income and valuation discipline. |
| Jul 2 2025 | 2025 Q2 | - | dividends, Global Equities, inflation, tariffs, Trade | - | The letter argues that tariffs function primarily as a tax rather than an inflationary force and are being used as a negotiating and revenue tool. Management expects negotiated outcomes to reduce worst-case fears and sees resilience in global growth. The outlook supports global equities and dividend strategies amid policy volatility. |
| Apr 21 2025 | 2025 Q1 | - | - | - | |
| Feb 19 2025 | 2024 Q4 | - | - | - | |
| Oct 28 2024 | 2024 Q3 | - | - | - | |
| Aug 13 2024 | 2024 Q2 | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
DeregulationRed tape expected to be cut at pace across Financial Services, AI/Tech Services and Energy sectors under guise of National Security to prop up economic growth before midterms. Great Financial Crisis capital requirements expected to be watered down, benefitting banks the most. |
Financial Services Technology Energy Banking Capital Requirements | |
EuropeThe firm is expanding European relationships and published research on European shareholder activism. They view Europe as an attractive alternative to expensive American markets and are building manager relationships in the region. |
Activism Shareholder Valuation Diversification Research | |
InflationInflation has continued to be a persistent feature in Japan and has prompted changes in both corporate and consumer behavior. Importantly, inflation has fed through to corporate earnings and equity performance. Companies that have successfully passed on higher costs to consumers have benefited from improved operating margins. |
Inflation Corporate Earnings Operating Margins Consumer Behavior Cost Pass-through | |
NuclearPosition in Uranium Energy as the largest licensed uranium miner in the U.S., positioned to benefit from renewed focus on nuclear power as long-term energy solution and U.S. efforts to strengthen domestic nuclear fuel supply chains for national security. |
Uranium Mining Nuclear Power Energy Security Domestic Supply National Security | |
OilOil markets disrupted by closure of Straits of Hormuz affecting 20% of global production. Prices surged from $70 to $119.50 before retreating to $90. Market may be tighter than commonly believed despite IEA projections of surplus. Oil represents cheapest major asset class globally, trading at near-record lows relative to gold. |
Crude Brent WTI Hormuz Supply | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
GlobalInternational and emerging market equities dominated performance with annual returns above 30%, reinforcing the case for global diversification. Non-US developed markets gained 31.9% while emerging markets gained 33.6% for 2025. |
Diversification International Emerging Markets Outperformance Currency | |
InflationInflation has continued to be a persistent feature in Japan and has prompted changes in both corporate and consumer behavior. Importantly, inflation has fed through to corporate earnings and equity performance. Companies that have successfully passed on higher costs to consumers have benefited from improved operating margins. |
Inflation Corporate Earnings Operating Margins Consumer Behavior Cost Pass-through | |
Policy |
||
RatesFed cut rates by 25bps on December 10 while describing growth as moderate and inflation as still somewhat elevated. Markets took message as cut now, likely pause soon. The opportunity set was less about calling one Fed meeting and more about trading the path via rates and FX. |
Fed Easing Policy Duration Curve | |
| 2025 Q2 |
Tariffs |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Elevator Pitches found | ||||||||||
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| IEV | In 2025, European equities nearly doubled the performance of the SPY, with the iShares Europe ETF returning +31.4% versus +17.7% for the U.S. |
| SPY | Over the exact same period, the S&P 500 generated an annualized return of around 10.2%. A dollar invested passively in an S&P 500 ETF became roughly eleven dollars. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, is the most widely owned and actively traded ETF in the world. Its market capitalization today is roughly USD 700 billion—only about 1% of the total market capitalization of the S&P 500 constituents. Yet SPY's typical daily trading volume is USD 30–40 billion, while the combined daily trading volume of the underlying S&P 500 companies is approximately USD 500–700 billion. |
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