| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5% | -1.1% | -0.1% |
| 2025 |
|---|
| -0.1% |
The Alluvium Global Fund returned -1.1% in EUR terms for Q4 2025, bringing full-year returns to -0.1%. The fund's concentrated value approach faced headwinds as several core positions underperformed significantly. Alphabet emerged as a standout performer, gaining 28.8% quarterly as its Gemini AI platform achieved massive adoption, though the stock now trades at a significant premium to the managers' valuation. Ryanair, the fund's largest position at 9.4%, delivered strong results with upgraded traffic expectations. However, major detractors included Charter Communications and Liberty Broadband, which declined over 20% each amid fierce competition in cable internet. Robert Half and LyondellBasell continued their poor performance, falling 18.3% and 9.2% respectively. The managers acknowledge the value investor's curse of buying too early and selling too early, citing missed opportunities from premature exits in gold miners and semiconductors. Despite current challenges, they maintain conviction in their disciplined approach, expecting eventual recoveries in beaten-down sectors while remaining cautious about AI valuations and geopolitical risks.
The fund follows a concentrated value-oriented approach, investing in approximately 20 global businesses trading at discounts to intrinsic value, with emphasis on capital preservation and long-term compounding returns.
The managers express uncertainty about AI industry dynamics and geopolitical risks under Trump's leadership. They maintain conviction in their value approach despite recent underperformance, expecting recoveries in beaten-down sectors like recruitment and chemicals, though timing remains unknown.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23 2026 | 2025 Q4 | 005930.KS, AN, BABA, CHTR, DKS, GOOGL, GPI, HCA, HRB, LBRDA, LNR.TO, LYB, MCK, RHI, RYAAY, THO, UMG.AS, V | AI, Airlines, global, healthcare, technology, underperformance, value | - | The fund discusses the rapid adoption of AI technologies, particularly Alphabet's Gemini AI which gained 650 million monthly active users in six months. Questions remain about quantifying efficiency gains and monetary benefits versus the immense capital outlays by providers. Ryanair represents the fund's largest position at 9.4%, benefiting from earlier aircraft deliveries and upgraded traffic expectations. Management expects reasonable net profit growth with strengthening competitive positioning. The fund follows a value-oriented approach, buying more of poorly performing investments as they decline. The managers acknowledge the value investor's curse of buying too early and selling too early, citing examples of premature exits from gold miners and semiconductor companies. |
| Aug 7 2025 | 2025 Q2 | BABA, DKS, LBRDA, LNR CN, LYB, RHI, RYA ID, THO | balance, diversification, global, risk, structure |
DKS LNR CN AN GPI THO LBRDA RHI LYB BABA |
The commentary emphasizes global diversification across regions and sectors amid rising geopolitical and macro uncertainty. The manager discusses balancing growth and defensiveness, with a focus on companies benefiting from long-term structural trends rather than cyclical speculation. Risk management and adaptability are core portfolio principles. |
| Mar 31 2025 | 2025 Q1 | DKS, GOOG, HCA, LBRDA, LNR CN, MCK, RHI, THO | - | - | |
| Jan 31 2025 | 2024 Q4 | CHTR, CPRI, DKS, GOOG, GPI, HCA, HRB, LBRDA, LMT, LYB, MA, MCK, RYAAY, V | - | - | |
| Sep 30 2024 | 2024 Q3 | 005930 KS, AEM, AN, CPRI, GOOG, HCA, LBRDA, LMT, LNR CN, MCK, RRL AU, UMG NA, V | - | - | |
| Jul 21 2024 | 2024 Q2 | AEM, AN, GOOG, HRB, LBRDK, LNR CN, MCK, RHI, RRL AU, RYAAY, THO, TPR | - | - | |
| May 9 2024 | 2024 Q1 | CGSBF, CRAWA, GTX, GUZOF, HMM/A CN, MCB LN, MRC, NLOP, PX, SHOT SS, TLNE | - | - | |
| Jan 14 2024 | 2023 Q4 | 0RYA LN, 8L8 GR, CPRI, DKS, LNR CN, MU, NSBK, THO | - | - | |
| Sep 30 2023 | 2023 Q3 | CPRI, DKS, HCA, HRB, LUV, MCK, THO, UMG NA, WBA | - | - | |
| Jun 30 2023 | 2023 Q2 | 0RYA LN, CPRI, GOOG, HCA, MCK, NST AU, RRL AU, THO, UMG NA, WBA | - | - | |
| Mar 31 2023 | 2023 Q1 | 0RYA LN, CPRI, DKS, LBRDA, LEA, LYB, ROG SW, UMG NA | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
AirlinesRyanair represents the fund's largest position at 9.4%, benefiting from earlier aircraft deliveries and upgraded traffic expectations. Management expects reasonable net profit growth with strengthening competitive positioning. |
Traffic Aircraft Deliveries Competition | |
ValueManager emphasizes investing in controlled companies trading at significant discounts to NAV, with European holding companies showing discounts of 30-68%. The strategy focuses on securities mispricing where real value exists, contrasting with overvalued technology stocks. |
Discounts NAV Mispricing Undervalued Controlled | |
| 2025 Q2 |
GlobalInternational and emerging market equities dominated performance with annual returns above 30%, reinforcing the case for global diversification. Non-US developed markets gained 31.9% while emerging markets gained 33.6% for 2025. |
Diversification International Emerging Markets Outperformance Currency |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 7, 2025 | Fund Letters | Stuart Pearce | DKS | Dick's Sporting Goods, Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Specialty Stores | Bull | NYSE | acquisition, retail, Returns, synergies, valuation | Login |
| Aug 7, 2025 | Fund Letters | Stuart Pearce | LNR CN | Linamar Corporation | Consumer Discretionary | Auto Parts & Equipment | Bull | TSX | Auto parts, Autos, Free Cash Flow, Reshoring, tariffs | Login |
| Aug 7, 2025 | Fund Letters | Stuart Pearce | AN | AutoNation, Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Specialty Stores | Bull | NYSE | Auto retail, cash flow, Cyclicals, Re-rating, valuation | Login |
| Aug 7, 2025 | Fund Letters | Stuart Pearce | GPI | Group 1 Automotive, Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Specialty Stores | Bull | NYSE | Auto dealers, capital allocation, diversification, Mid-cycle, Re-rating | Login |
| Aug 7, 2025 | Fund Letters | Stuart Pearce | THO | Thor Industries, Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Leisure Products | Bull | NYSE | buybacks, Cycle, Free Cash Flow, Leisure, RVs | Login |
| Aug 7, 2025 | Fund Letters | Stuart Pearce | LBRDA | Liberty Broadband Corporation | Communication Services | Cable & Satellite | Bull | NASDAQ | cable, consolidation, discount, synergies, Tracking stock | Login |
| Aug 7, 2025 | Fund Letters | Stuart Pearce | RHI | Robert Half Inc. | Industrials | Human Resource & Employment Services | Bull | NYSE | Cycle, Downturn, Employment, Staffing, valuation | Login |
| Aug 7, 2025 | Fund Letters | Stuart Pearce | LYB | LyondellBasell Industries N.V. | Materials | Commodity Chemicals | Bull | NYSE | asset sales, Chemicals, Free Cash Flow, Margins, restructuring | Login |
| Aug 7, 2025 | Fund Letters | Stuart Pearce | BABA | Alibaba Group Holding Limited | Consumer Discretionary | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bull | NYSE | buybacks, China, cloud, diversification, e-commerce | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| 005930.KS | Top gainers included Samsung (+38% in U.S. dollar terms) |
| AN | Other poor performers included the auto dealers - Group 1 Automotive (down 10.0%) and Autonation (down 5.6%), as well as Universal Music (down 8.6%) There was no disturbing news we can point to. They all remain large portfolio positions. |
| BABA | Alibaba was a detractor during the quarter after the company reported mixed fiscal Q2 results. While cloud revenue growth accelerated and margins remained stable, the core commerce business struggled with slowing growth and significant profit pressure, particularly in the quick commerce segment where heavy investment and intense competition led to a sharp decline in profitability. |
| CHTR | Weakest performers included Charter Communications (-24%) |
| DKS | Management of Dick's Sporting, (down 10.4%) spoke of the need to get back to Retail 101, and referred to cleaning out the garage when warning of more than USD 500m in pre-tax write-offs after its Foot Locker acquisition. But the core Dick's business again flourished, and setting aside the short term Foot Locker implications (which were expected) management updated guidance. There was no impact to our valuation. We remain positive and comfortable with our position at 5.1%. |
| GOOGL | In the third quarter, Google, Kairos Power, and the Tennessee Valley Authority announced a major collaboration centered on a novel power purchase agreement. Google followed this announcement with another significant step forward. On October 27, Google and NextEra Energy announced plans to restart the Duane Arnold Energy Center. |
| GPI | Other poor performers included the auto dealers - Group 1 Automotive (down 10.0%) and Autonation (down 5.6%), as well as Universal Music (down 8.6%) There was no disturbing news we can point to. They all remain large portfolio positions. |
| HCA | HCA Healthcare (the operator of 186 hospitals and around 2,400 ambulatory sites) reported pleasing results and management upgraded its full year's earnings guidance by 4.8% at the EPS level. With it buying back more shares, and after making some other tweaks, our valuation increased by 5%. But, with a share price increase of 9.7% over the quarter, the premium widened. |
| HRB | Adjusted EPS missed expectations, but revenue beat; however, it was a seasonally-insignificant quarter, given HRB's tax preparation business. Management guided to further market share losses in 2026 |
| LBRDA | Charter Communications (down 24.1%) was again hammered, and similarly Liberty Broadband (a Charter tracking stock) was down 23.8%. With them together accounting for around 7.6% of the Fund, these positions cost us dearly. And with both now down almost 50% over the year, it is not just a quarterly phenomenon. |
| LNR.TO | The share price of Linamar, the manufacturer of car components, farm and industrial equipment was up 11.6%. This makes it close to 50% for the year. Not only were the results sound (particularly from the automotive division), what stood out to us was the two acquisitions which are reported to be earnings accretive from day one. Together they will add CAD 1b to annual sales at 7-10% margins. We are particularly encouraged by reports suggesting that these were client led (which we suspect resulted in favourable terms), and the possibility of more to come. The results and general news were not cause for us to change our valuation. But finally the share price is starting to trade at a similar level. It is a 4.5% position. |
| LYB | Robert Half, down another 18.3% (and now 59.1% for the year) and LyondellBasell, down another 9.2% (making it 35.9% for the year) have been major disappointments. The news isn't getting any better from either company. And it is now evident that the broader market is factoring poor industry conditions for a longer period than implied by our valuations for both businesses. Hence they trade at a large discount. And worryingly, consensus earnings estimates suggest their dividends are at risk (Robert Half has an 8.6% dividend yield and LyondellBasell's is 12.6% - and tax free). Current hindsight points to our purchases during their price descents (in May, August and October) as mistakes. But we still expect the industries in which these businesses operate (recruitment / outplacement and chemicals / plastics) to recover and to lead to solid share price rebounds - but the timing is unknown. Admittedly, with each successive result announcement our level of conviction declines. Hence, we ceased topping up and the Fund's position in each business is currently 2.2% and 4.4%. |
| MCK | This is a pharmaceutical distribution company, operating mainly in the United States. I followed their industry for many years. I first bought the stock for US$144 in the spring of 2018 when many investors worried the company would be permanently damaged by liabilities stemming from the opioid crisis in the United States. We later bought the stock for US$205 when Greenfield started managing money in September 2021, representing roughly 10 times earnings. The stock has climbed steadily to US$824 today, which works out to roughly 20 times earnings. We have trimmed the position size but continue to own shares today. I see the investment similar to a royalty on Americans taking more pharmaceuticals over time. |
| RHI | continued to build positions in staffing firm Robert Half |
| RYAAY | This is the largest airline in Europe. I followed the company for about 18 years. I owned its shares professionally for much of that time. We bought Ryanair's American Depository Shares when Greenfield started managing investments in September 2021 at around US$45 (adjusted for a subsequent stock split). At the time, the airline was still losing money from the COVID-19 pandemic, but it previously had consistently strong profitability. The price at the time represented only 16 times what the airline had earned back in 2018. I felt their earnings would eventually be materially higher. And, unlike many airlines, Ryanair still had an excellent balance sheet. The American Depository Shares now trade at around US$73 representing roughly 14 times earnings. I feel the airline will continue using its low-cost competitive advantage to grow by stealing market share from weaker airlines. |
| THO | During the quarter we completely sold our position in Thor, the recreational vehicle manufacturer. Its full year results showed continued declining returns on capital and it had rebounded to trade in-line with our valuation (which had not materially changed in years). The Fund has owned this business since inception in January 2019, and we estimate the annualised time weighted return achieved was 9.0%. |
| UMG.AS | UMG is a high-quality, capital-light, rapidly growing royalty on greater music consumption. 'Streaming 2.0' deals, which incorporate wholesale price increases, should lead to higher subscription revenue growth. New partners and product tiers should allow for better customer segmentation. AI can be a further tailwind to growth. |
| V | There were companies there such as Visa, which we own, as well as many we do not, and which would not likely be appropriate for this mandate. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Sells Data | ||||||
| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
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| No industry data available | |||
