| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
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| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6 2026 | 2025 Q4 | DAVA, FND, NVO | Artificial Intelligence, Enterprise Software, GLP-1 Drugs, Home Improvement Retail, Store Expansion | - | The letter highlights how artificial intelligence is reshaping equity markets, with perceived AI winners outperforming while many software companies have experienced sharp valuation declines as… |
| Oct 30 2025 | 2025 Q3 | DAVA, DFH, FERG, NVO, POST, W | Artificial Intelligence, Auto Loans, Credit Risk, Housing, interest rates |
POST DAVA NVO DFH POST DAVA NVO DFH |
The letter analyzed the failure of subprime auto lender Tricolor as an example of credit excesses fueled by lax underwriting and over-leverage, drawing parallels to… |
| Aug 23 2025 | 2025 Q2 | AVTR, DEO, FND, QQQ, STNE, TSU CN, VNT | dislocation, fundamentals, Patience, risk, volatility | - | The letter discusses heightened market volatility driven by tariffs, geopolitical tension, and narrow market leadership. Management views volatility as a recurring feature rather than a… |
| May 30 2025 | 2025 Q1 | CELH, FMX, HOV, TSU CN, W | - | - | - |
| Mar 11 2025 | 2024 Q4 | ALNT, CDW, CSWI, DAVA, TOI CN | - | - | - |
| Jun 25 2024 | 2024 Q1 | DAVA, DEO, TBBB | - | - | - |
| Mar 29 2024 | 2023 Q4 | MLAB, ZROZ | - | - | - |
| Nov 18 2023 | 2023 Q3 | BURL, LESL, POST, TSU CN | - | - | - |
| Jul 23 2023 | 2023 Q2 | CURV, DAVA, OLLI, ZROZ | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI has become a dominant theme across major equity indices, with Nvidia leading the S&P 500, ASML dominating MSCI EAFE, and TSMC leading emerging markets. The fund benefited from AI-related dynamics, particularly through Samsung's memory products experiencing substantial price increases due to DRAM shortages driven by AI demand. |
Semiconductors Memory DRAM Technology Nvidia |
Home ImprovementFloor & Decor represents a category killer business model in hard surface flooring with 75,000 square foot warehouse stores carrying 2,350+ SKUs versus 630-680 at competitors. The company has grown comparable store sales at 11% annually over 14 years, with strong unit economics and store rollout potential to 500 locations. |
Flooring Warehouse Category Killer Rollout Pro Customers | |
Software |
||
| 2025 Q3 |
AIAI has become a dominant theme across major equity indices, with Nvidia leading the S&P 500, ASML dominating MSCI EAFE, and TSMC leading emerging markets. The fund benefited from AI-related dynamics, particularly through Samsung's memory products experiencing substantial price increases due to DRAM shortages driven by AI demand. |
Semiconductors Memory DRAM Technology Nvidia |
CreditFund focuses on elevated carry in high yield credit markets with spreads remaining range bound below 300 basis points. Manager believes high yield credit is fundamentally strong but valuations are tight, particularly in higher quality BBs. Strategy emphasizes sourcing positions with higher income levels given limited price appreciation opportunities. |
High Yield Credit Spreads Carry Investment Grade | |
Housing |
||
| 2025 Q2 |
VolatilityManager emphasizes volatility as a structural feature of markets, noting that rare events occur far more frequently than expected. April's volatility event validated their convexity approach, with systematic monetization during stress periods. December saw compressed volatility with VIX hitting year lows, creating buying opportunities despite short-term costs. |
VIX Implied Volatility Realized Volatility Convexity Options |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Mike Loeb | POST | Post Holdings, Inc. | Consumer Staples | Food Products | Bear | NYSE | buybacks, capital allocation, Category headwinds, Free Cash Flow, leverage | Login |
| Oct 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Mike Loeb | DAVA | Endava plc | Information Technology | IT Consulting & Other Services | Bull | NYSE | Digital transformation, M&A optionality, Margin recovery, Multiple re-rating, Utilization | Login |
| Oct 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Mike Loeb | NVO | Novo Nordisk A/S | Health Care | Pharmaceuticals | Bull | NYSE | Capacity, GLP-1, Obesity, pipeline, Reimbursement | Login |
| Oct 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Mike Loeb | DFH | Dream Finders Homes, Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Homebuilding | Bear | NYSE | asset-light, backlog, deleveraging, housing cycle, Incentives | Login |
| Oct 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Mike Loeb | POST | Post Holdings, Inc. | Consumer Staples | Food Products | Bear | NYSE | buybacks, capital allocation, Category headwinds, Free Cash Flow, leverage | Login |
| Oct 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Mike Loeb | DAVA | Endava plc | Information Technology | IT Consulting & Other Services | Bull | NYSE | Digital transformation, M&A optionality, Margin recovery, Multiple re-rating, Utilization | Login |
| Oct 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Mike Loeb | NVO | Novo Nordisk A/S | Health Care | Pharmaceuticals | Bull | NYSE | Capacity, GLP-1, Obesity, pipeline, Reimbursement | Login |
| Oct 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Mike Loeb | DFH | Dream Finders Homes, Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Homebuilding | Bear | NYSE | asset-light, backlog, deleveraging, housing cycle, Incentives | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| DAVA | Endava is an IT services provider, which the market perceives as an AI loser. Since this industry bills by the hour, the amount of billable work goes down if programming becomes more efficient. The alternative view is that this lower cost enables different kinds of IT projects for DAVA's customers and the lower price per project will be compensated for by higher volumes. When AI just came onto the scene, large corporates delayed their IT investment decisions to figure out how to apply AI to their business. Earlier in 2025, we started seeing the first signs of companies beginning to commit to large AI-related IT spending. Unfortunately, the business uncertainty following the Liberation Day tariffs postponed this recovery. We think 2026 will be the year when Endava returns to growth. Unfortunately, DAVA has also underperformed its peers because of less-than-stellar execution. The company now trades at 0.3x sales, versus 1-2x for peers. We think that normalized Net Income margins are around 10%, putting the company around 3x P/E once the business stabilizes and rationalizes its headcount. It's even cheaper if they manage to return to growth. |
| FND | Floor & Decor Holdings (FND) is a specialty retailer offering a broad assortment of hard-surface flooring products at everyday low prices. |
| NVO | Novo Nordisk shares were a drag on the portfolio due to increased competition in the weight-loss drug market, resulting in reduced sales and profit growth outlooks. In December, the company announced FDA approval for its oral Wegovy pill, which could alter investor perception positively. |
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