| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
Brasada Capital Management delivered mid to high single-digit returns in 2025 despite significant market volatility driven by tariff policy uncertainty. The firm navigated a 19% market correction in six weeks followed by a seven-week recovery, demonstrating that markets bottom when uncertainty peaks rather than resolves. The investment environment remains characterized by unprecedented concentration risk, with seven stocks driving most S&P 500 returns for three consecutive years. AI capital spending continues at elevated levels but remains concentrated among large technology companies. Looking ahead to 2026, the firm sees favorable conditions including Fed rate cuts, consumer tax benefits, strong M&A activity, and moderating inflation. However, elevated valuations and historical mid-term election year patterns suggest less linear progress. The firm maintains confidence in its diversified investment process and expects opportunities to expand when market leadership eventually broadens beyond the current narrow technology focus.
Despite elevated market concentration and policy uncertainty, fundamental conditions support continued expansion with Fed accommodation, strong corporate investment in AI, and improving business confidence, though returns may be less linear than recent years.
More to like than not looking toward 2026. Conditions for continued economic expansion appear in place with Fed rate cuts, consumer tax benefits, strong corporate AI investment, and healthy earnings expectations. However, progress may be less linear given elevated valuations and historical patterns around mid-term election years.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 9 2026 | 2025 Q4 | - | AI, Concentration, Fed, policy, tariffs, technology, Valuations, volatility | - | Capital spending on artificial intelligence has been immense but highly concentrated among firms with scale and balance sheets to pursue it. Much of market performance was driven by companies at the center of AI investment. Corporate investment in AI remains high going into 2026. The seven largest stocks accounted for more than half of S&P 500 returns for three consecutive years. Today's market shows unprecedented concentration in large technology companies, creating concentration risk never seen before. Market leadership has been unusually narrow. The uncertain and chaotic implementation of the U.S.'s highest tariffs in 93 years resulted in a 19% market correction in just six weeks. Policy shock interrupted business optimism that was building coming into 2025. |
| Oct 22 2025 | 2025 Q3 | AMD, AVGO, FERG, NVDA | AI, Housing, inflation, infrastructure, semiconductors |
FERG AVGO FERG AVGO |
Brasada highlights AIs debt-fueled capital spending cycle as a late-stage bubble reminiscent of the telecom era. Managers remain selective, preferring high-quality platforms and suppliers like Broadcom and Ferguson with durable cash flows and pricing power. They see benefits in infrastructure, plumbing, and data center demand as inflation moderates and rates decline. |
| Jul 1 2025 | 2025 Q2 | UBER, WST | Compounding, Discipline, downside protection, Quality, Return on Capital | - | The letter highlights a focus on high-quality businesses with strong returns on capital and durable growth. Management stresses downside protection through business quality rather than diversification. Long-term compounding remains the core objective. |
| Apr 7 2025 | 2025 Q1 | HEI | - | - | |
| Jan 7 2024 | 2024 Q4 | - | - | - | |
| Oct 8 2024 | 2024 Q3 | CPT | - | - | |
| Jul 10 2024 | 2024 Q2 | CCCS | - | - | |
| May 2 2024 | 2024 Q1 | - | - | - | |
| Aug 1 2024 | 2023 Q4 | - | - | - | |
| Apr 18 2023 | 2023 Q1 | CP, GOOG, RTO | - | - | |
| Jul 20 2022 | 2022 Q2 | AZTA, CDRE, POOL | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
Concentration RiskThe seven largest stocks accounted for more than half of S&P 500 returns for three consecutive years. Today's market shows unprecedented concentration in large technology companies, creating concentration risk never seen before. Market leadership has been unusually narrow. |
Market Concentration Technology S&P 500 Leadership Risk | |
Trade PolicyRecent tariff policies continued to negatively impact U.S. consumers and companies throughout the year. However, international companies have been finding new trade arrangements and growth opportunities, benefiting from shifts in global trade patterns as the new U.S. administration alters terms of international cooperation. |
Tariffs International Growth Cooperation Impact | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
InflationInflation has continued to be a persistent feature in Japan and has prompted changes in both corporate and consumer behavior. Importantly, inflation has fed through to corporate earnings and equity performance. Companies that have successfully passed on higher costs to consumers have benefited from improved operating margins. |
Inflation Corporate Earnings Operating Margins Consumer Behavior Cost Pass-through | |
InfrastructureDigital 9 Infrastructure holds telecom infrastructure assets including Arqiva stake. Despite poor 2025 performance, potential capital returns and asset sales could unlock value. Infrastructure assets provide defensive characteristics. |
Telecom Infrastructure Digital Infrastructure | |
| 2025 Q2 |
QualityThe company emphasizes investing in businesses with excellent economics, durable competitive advantages, and high-integrity management. This quality focus is evident in concentrated equity holdings and operating business acquisitions. |
Durable Advantages Management Quality Economic Moats Competitive Position |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2025 | Fund Letters | Jonathan Reichek | FERG | Ferguson plc | Industrials | Trading Companies & Distributors | Bull | NYSE | cashflow, Distribution, HVAC, infrastructure, M&A, Margins, Plumbing | Login |
| Oct 22, 2025 | Fund Letters | Jonathan Reichek | AVGO | Broadcom Inc. | Information Technology | Semiconductors | Bull | NASDAQ | AI, dividends, growth, Margins, Networking, semiconductors, Software | Login |
| Oct 22, 2025 | Fund Letters | Jonathan Reichek | FERG | Ferguson plc | Industrials | Trading Companies & Distributors | Bull | NYSE | cashflow, Distribution, HVAC, infrastructure, M&A, Margins, Plumbing | Login |
| Oct 22, 2025 | Fund Letters | Jonathan Reichek | AVGO | Broadcom Inc. | Information Technology | Semiconductors | Bull | NASDAQ | AI, dividends, growth, Margins, Networking, semiconductors, Software | Login |
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