| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | 13.0% |
Bumbershoot Holdings generated a 13.02% return in 2025, positioning between major benchmarks through steady performance with minimal volatility. The fund's core thesis centers on disciplined selection in an increasingly narrative-driven market where credible investment opportunities are narrowing. Technology sector gains led by Alphabet, Micron, First Solar and Camtek drove core performance, while materials exposure through fertilizer companies and Barrick Mining contributed positively. The manager anticipates a substantial next reflation cycle, where liquidity will flood into financial assets and businesses with credible narratives. Key risks include elevated market valuations, investor complacency, and the potential deflationary impact of AI on employment and SaaS ecosystems. The strategy emphasizes holding concentrated positions longer rather than rotating quickly, as fewer quality opportunities exist. With uncertainty rising and selection becoming paramount, the fund is positioned to capitalize on the manager's deep research process and conviction-weighted approach across technology, industrial, and materials sectors.
In an increasingly narrative-driven market with narrowing opportunity sets, disciplined selection and concentrated conviction in undervalued assets across technology, materials, and industrial sectors will drive superior returns through the next reflation cycle.
The manager is as excited about the opportunity set as any time since starting the company. The market remains narrative-driven and split between favored and out-of-favor assets. Selection will be paramount as uncertainty rises and credible investment narratives become scarcer. The fund is exceptionally well positioned to take advantage of whatever comes next.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6 2026 | 2025 Q4 | CAMT, CF, CTRA, FSLR, Gold, GOOGL, HRI, IPI, KGF.L, LGND, MDGL, MU, NPKI, NTR, ORN, OSIS, OSK, VKTX, VMEO, VPG | Concentration, liquidity, Multi-Strat, Reflation, Selection, semiconductors, technology, value | - | AI remains a primary market driver but questions emerge about whether it will be hugely deflationary to the job market and SaaS technology ecosystem. The… |
| Mar 31 2025 | 2024 Q4 | - | - | - | - |
| May 3 2024 | 2023 Q4 | LGND, VKTX | - | - | - |
| Nov 2 2023 | 2022 Q4 | - | - | - | - |
| Feb 22 2022 | 2021 Q4 | - | - | - | - |
| Feb 20 2021 | 2020 Q4 | - | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
FertilizersMaterials sector exposure to the agricultural-fertilizer industry via Intrepid Potash, Nutrien, and CF Industries was a positive contributor to results. The fund maintains exposure across the fertilizer value chain. |
Agriculture Potash Nitrogen Materials Commodities | |
GoldGold returned +65% in dollars in 2025, driven by broadening demand from central banks, professional and retail investors. Central banks now hold 24% of reserves in gold versus 23% in US Treasuries for the first time. Maintained 12% portfolio allocation throughout the year. |
Central Banks Reserves Diversification Demand | |
Infrastructure SpendingPlaying on the continued theme of infrastructure spending, defense and energy sustainability, positions in Industrial and Energy sectors including Oshkosh, Coterra, OSI Systems, and Herc Holdings added positively to performance. |
Defense Energy Industrial Government Sustainability | |
LiquidityManager extensively discusses liquidity challenges in African frontier markets, explaining how tight ownership structures and limited foreign participation restrict trading volumes. Notes that liquidity varies cyclically and structurally, with potential improvement expected as bull market develops and more investor categories participate. |
Trading Volumes Participation Structural Cyclical | |
SemiconductorsRGA initiated a position in Lattice Semiconductor, viewing it as an under-appreciated AI winner with immediate gains and longer-term optionality. Lattice's focus on efficiency and advantages in low-power, small footprint FPGAs position it favorably for AI servers, particularly as the only Post-Quantum Cryptography secure chips on the market. |
FPGAs Security Efficiency AI Infrastructure Programmable |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Elevator Pitches found | ||||||||||
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| CAMT | Core gains were led by investments in the Technology sector including Camtek |
| CF | Materials sector exposure to the agricultural-fertilizer industry via CF Industries was a positive contributor to results |
| CTRA | Playing on the continued theme of infrastructure spending, defense and energy sustainability, Coterra added positively to performance |
| FSLR | First Solar is a vertically integrated leading manufacturer of solar panels manufactured in the US. The company differentiates itself by using thin-film Cadmium Telluride (CdTe) technology which offers better performance versus traditional silicon panels in hot/humid/low light conditions and is ultimately more efficient and economical for large scale deployment. An added tailwind has come from the Trump Administration's One Big Beautiful Bill which has driven US demand for non-China solar products. |
| GOOGL | In the third quarter, Google, Kairos Power, and the Tennessee Valley Authority announced a major collaboration centered on a novel power purchase agreement. Google followed this announcement with another significant step forward. On October 27, Google and NextEra Energy announced plans to restart the Duane Arnold Energy Center. |
| HRI | Playing on the continued theme of infrastructure spending, defense and energy sustainability, Herc Holdings added positively to performance |
| IPI | Materials sector exposure to the agricultural-fertilizer industry via Intrepid Potash was a positive contributor to results |
| KGF.L | Home improvement retailer, Kingfisher, finally started to turn things around… perhaps Europe does still count for something after all |
| LGND | The Healthcare sector was once again led by Ligand |
| MDGL | The Healthcare sector was once again led by Madrigal |
| MU | Core gains were led by investments in the Technology sector including Micron |
| NPKI | Some of our technology and industrial-themed holdings such as NPK International continued to produce meaningful contributions |
| NTR | Materials sector exposure to the agricultural-fertilizer industry via Nutrien was a positive contributor to results |
| ORN | Some of our technology and industrial-themed holdings such as Orion Group continued to produce meaningful contributions |
| OSIS | Playing on the continued theme of infrastructure spending, defense and energy sustainability, OSI Systems added positively to performance |
| OSK | Oshkosh Corporation (OSK) was added to the SMID strategy in the fourth quarter. OSK is a global manufacturer of specialized vehicles and equipment used in essential and mission-critical applications. The company operates across three primary segments: Access equipment, Vocational vehicles, and Transport, serving customers in construction, airport and municipal services, fire and emergency response, defense, and delivery markets. |
| VKTX | Healthcare sector was more than offset by losses in Viking Therapeutics. While Viking has been a roller-coaster over the past couple of years, we remain optimistic as it moves VK2735 into multiple Ph3 trials |
| VMEO | Micro strategy had a standout performance, led by a notable attribution from Vimeo, which was acquired during the year |
| VPG | Some of our technology and industrial-themed holdings such as Vishay Precision Group continued to produce meaningful contributions |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
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