| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
Claret Asset Management navigates Q1 2026 amid geopolitical tensions from U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran and subsequent Strait of Hormuz blockade, while drawing historical parallels showing markets typically bottom when war uncertainty is replaced by reality. The manager identifies concerning similarities between current AI valuations and the 1999 dot-com bubble, with companies like Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX trading at extreme revenue multiples despite admitting extended unprofitability periods. This mirrors the eyeball metric era when traditional finance rules were suspended. The end of four decades of declining interest rates creates what the manager calls a golden age for credit, as fixed income now offers yields competitive with historical equity returns. The strategy shifts toward defensive positioning, emphasizing credit allocation over momentum-driven equities that have dominated recent years. Portfolio implications include reallocating toward fixed income, fundamental bargain hunting through deep analysis, and building portfolios with structural margins of safety. The manager advocates staying invested while avoiding short-term emotional decisions, capitalizing on normalized borrowing costs where genuine operational profitability matters more than cheap debt financing.
In an environment of normalized interest rates and geopolitical uncertainty, disciplined value investing and credit allocation will outperform momentum strategies that have dominated recent years, as markets transition from free capital to requiring genuine operational profitability.
Manager expects the current environment to favor disciplined value investors who focus on fundamental analysis over momentum strategies. Emphasizes staying invested and not letting short-term emotions influence long-term decision making, while capitalizing on higher baseline interest rates through credit and fixed income allocations.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 21 2026 | 2026 Q1 | BF/B, MKC, RI.PA, UL | AI, credit, Geopolitical, interest rates, momentum, tariffs, Valuations, War | - | Claret sees current AI valuations mirroring 1999 dot-com bubble extremes while positioning defensively for normalized interest rate environment. Strategy shifts from momentum-driven equities toward credit and fixed income, where competitive yields no longer require equity multiple expansion. Geopolitical tensions create temporary volatility but historical precedent suggests disciplined value investing will outperform in this new era. |
| Jan 15 2026 | 2025 Q4 | - | AI, Bubble, inflation, Markets, Mortgage, Rally, rates, Trade Policy | - | 2025 proved market sentiment is not destiny as stocks delivered 18% returns despite widespread bearish predictions. Trump's tariff panic in April became a bear trap after policy walkback triggered relief rally. AI bubble concerns persist while 50-year mortgages are dismissed as debt traps. Claret maintains disciplined value approach while finding high yield bonds attractive above 8%. |
| Oct 17 2025 | 2025 Q3 | MSFT, NVDA | AI, liquidity, private credit, real estate, risk management, technology, Valuations | NVDA | Claret warns of bubble-like conditions with AI investments surging 1500% and market valuations matching 2000 levels. The firm criticizes dangerous packaging of illiquid private credit and real estate for retail investors, implementing defensive positioning while focusing on quality, transparent businesses. Despite elevated risks, they maintain conviction in superior companies outperforming through cycles. |
| Jul 11 2025 | 2025 Q2 | AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA | AI, Big tech, Buy Hold, long-term, Trade Policy, volatility | - | Claret advocates staying focused on long-term economic fundamentals despite Trump tariff volatility that triggered April's correction and subsequent rebound. The manager warns against AI hiring bubble dynamics while maintaining confidence in buy-and-hold strategies that have delivered 1230% returns over 29 years through multiple crises, emphasizing that economic forces ultimately trump political noise. |
| Apr 11 2025 | 2025 Q1 | - | Canada, fixed income, Psychology, rates, risk management, Trade Policy, value, volatility | - | Market correction from Trump tariffs represents typical non-recession pullback that should recover within 10 months. Interest rate environment changes will drive mid-single digit equity returns over next 20 years versus historical 11.3%. High yield bonds at 8.5%+ yields offer attractive alternative. Maintain quality diversified portfolios, avoid emotional decisions, consider fixed income rebalancing. |
| Jan 15 2025 | 2024 Q4 | NVDA | Bubbles, dividends, insurance, Market History, private equity, technology, Valuations | - | Strong 2024 equity returns raise bubble concerns, but historical analysis shows patient investors achieve reasonable long-term returns even with poor timing. Manager critiques dividend strategies and private equity hype while expecting yield curve normalization. Despite elevated valuations and political noise, emphasis remains on disciplined investing over market timing given markets' ability to see through short-term disruptions. |
| Oct 18 2024 | 2024 Q3 | - | China, Elections, inflation, interest rates, Stimulus, volatility, yield curve | - | Interest rates should normalize to compensate for inflation with limited downside unless growth slows. Chinese stimulus triggered a 25% rally, but historical patterns show government interventions create massive volatility followed by corrections. Despite multiple stimulus cycles, Chinese markets have delivered only 1.3% annualized returns since 1993. Focus on long-term fundamentals over election noise. |
| Jul 31 2024 | 2024 Q2 | AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA | AI, Canada, diversification, long-term, Market Concentration, technology, value | - | Claret maintains disciplined diversification despite missing the AI rally that drove 70% of S&P 500 returns through Magnificent 7 stocks. The manager defends Canadian market performance over longer periods and warns the current AI bubble resembles past irrational markets. They trust technology progress over speculation, seeking profitable companies at reasonable prices with long-term perspective. |
| May 8 2024 | 2024 Q1 | DJT, MSTR | Long Term, Margin Of Safety, Market Timing, Speculation, value | - | Claret sees fairly valued markets beneath Magnificent Seven concentration but warns against speculative excess exemplified by Trump Media and Microstrategy. Manager emphasizes buy-and-hold discipline over market timing, maintaining margin-of-safety principles while avoiding the crowd madness that drives irrational valuations in politically-charged and crypto-proxy stocks. |
| Dec 1 2024 | 2023 Q4 | AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NFLX, NVDA, TSLA, XOM | asset allocation, Credit markets, global, interest rates, large cap, technology | - | Claret sees 2024 equity markets in a reasonable zone with manageable debt ratios despite concerns. The Magnificent Seven's market dominance reflects concentration risk, while rising rates have made credit markets attractive at 8.5-9% yields. The firm advocates balanced allocation between equities and credit over the next decade. |
| Nov 10 2023 | 2023 Q3 | AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA, VFS | geopolitics, inflation, oil, rates, Recession, Valuations | - | Claret sees Q3 market weakness from rising rates as creating opportunities beyond the Magnificent Seven. Despite recession indicators like inverted yield curves and geopolitical risks, the manager remains optimistic about abundant global equity opportunities. They prefer business analysis over macro forecasting and criticize speculative excess while maintaining conviction in finding undervalued companies with industry tailwinds. |
| Jul 18 2023 | 2023 Q2 | - | - | - | |
| Apr 13 2023 | 2023 Q1 | - | - | - | |
| Jan 31 2023 | 2022 Q4 | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 |
AIManager draws parallels between current AI valuations and the dot-com bubble, citing companies like Anthropic at 13x revenues, OpenAI at 40x revenues, and SpaceX at 100x revenues. Notes these companies admit they will not be profitable for an extended period, comparing this to the eyeball metric used during the 1999 internet bubble. |
Valuations Bubble Revenues Profitability |
CreditManager views the end of the four-decade era of declining interest rates as creating a golden age for credit. Higher rates mean capital is no longer free and fixed income offers yields competitive with historical equity returns. Strategy involves reallocating assets toward credit and fixed income where strong returns can be achieved without relying on equity multiple expansion. |
Interest Rates Fixed Income Yields Risk Reward | |
MomentumManager describes how equity markets over the last 2 years have been polarized and overwhelmingly favored momentum investing, with the most effective strategy being simply buying stocks that had already gone up. This has created two markets: momentum stocks with PE multiples north of 30 and laggards with PE multiples of 15 or less. |
Polarization Valuations Strategy | |
AlcoholManager discusses the proposed merger between Pernod Ricard and Brown-Forman as a consolidation play in response to rising costs, shifting consumer habits, and global tariffs. The merger would create a Total Spirits powerhouse that could navigate cross-Atlantic trade barriers more efficiently than two separate companies. |
Consolidation Tariffs Merger | |
| 2025 Q4 |
AIManager discusses AI bubble dynamics, comparing to historical technology bubbles. Notes market exuberance around AI-related investments but questions whether enthusiasm has reached irrational proportions. Takes Warren Buffett's approach of applauding the endeavor but preferring to skip the ride. |
Artificial Intelligence Technology Bubble Innovation Valuation Speculation |
MortgageAnalyzes 50-year mortgage proposals as a poor financial decision despite lower monthly payments. Notes that extended amortization creates minimal equity building and significantly higher total interest costs. Compares it to credit card minimum payments making luxury items appear affordable. |
Housing Affordability Debt Interest Rates Real Estate Financial Planning | |
Trade PolicyDescribes how Trump's aggressive protectionist measures and reciprocal tariffs initially caused market panic in April 2025, but subsequent policy walkback triggered a relief rally. Notes the market's ability to climb the wall of worry despite trade tensions. |
Tariffs Protectionism Market Volatility Policy Risk International Trade | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AISince ChatGPT's 2022 release, AI investments have surged over 100%, with some ETFs up 160% and NVIDIA up 1500%. The manager compares current AI valuations to the 2000 dotcom bubble, noting similar market metrics but highlighting that today's tech companies have more reasonable individual valuations and superior profitability. The question remains whether this represents a bubble or sustainable secular growth. |
Artificial Intelligence Technology Valuations Bubble Growth |
Private CreditPrivate equity and credit are now eligible for 401(k) retirement accounts, with banking institutions promoting these to retail investors. The manager warns this represents sophisticated sellers transferring risk and illiquidity to unsuspecting retail buyers, as institutional markets are saturated with product and light on buying interest. This creates stranded assets with continued fee extraction based on seller-determined valuations. |
Illiquidity Retail Fees Risk Transfer Institutional | |
Commercial Real EstateCanadian real estate funds and investment trusts have gated redemptions, stranding investor capital while continuing to charge management fees based on manager-set valuations. Examples include Centurion Apartments REIT, Trez Capital, Kingsett, Fiera Capital, and Nicola Wealth Management. The manager notes this pattern occurs in every real estate market cycle, particularly affecting retirees who need liquidity. |
Gating Liquidity REITs Fees Retirement | |
| 2025 Q2 |
Trade PolicyThe letter extensively discusses Trump tariffs that triggered a sharp market correction in April 2025, followed by a strong rebound when tariffs were paused for 90 days. The manager emphasizes that economic forces are always stronger and longer lasting than political forces. |
Tariffs Trade War Economic Policy Market Volatility |
AIThe manager expresses apprehension about the magnitude of salaries big tech firms are paying for AI talent, comparing it to the internet bubble when obscene amounts were spent on anything internet-related. Notes that purchasing talent for mind-boggling sums may reflect an opportunity to hobble competitors' progress in AI. |
Artificial Intelligence Tech Talent Big Tech Bubble Risk | |
VolatilityThe letter demonstrates how investor emotional state varies greatly depending on observation frequency, showing the same market period through daily versus quarterly charts. Emphasizes the emotional pain of volatility and advocates focusing on long-term economic forces rather than short-term market reactions. |
Market Volatility Investor Psychology Short-term Noise Emotional Investing | |
| 2025 Q1 |
VolatilityThe manager discusses market corrections extensively, noting that 10% corrections occur about once every 1.6 years, while bear markets happen every 4.5 years. The current correction is characterized as a non-recession correction, which historically takes about 10 months to recover versus 3.8 years for recession-driven corrections. |
Market Corrections Bear Markets Recovery Psychology Risk Management |
RatesInterest rates are identified as the most important driver of equity returns. The manager notes that declining rates from 1981 to 2020 drove above-average equity returns of 11.3% annualized, while the next 20 years will likely see mid-single digit returns as the rate environment changes. |
Interest Rates Treasury Bonds Equity Returns Valuation Fixed Income | |
Trade PolicyPresident Trump's announcement of tariffs on every country except North Korea and Russia triggered a 17.5% market decline. The manager views political upheavals as temporary disruptions and suggests sovereign nations should reassess their economic and geopolitical policies to reduce dependence on single clients like the US. |
Tariffs Trade Wars Political Risk Economic Policy Geopolitics | |
| 2024 Q4 |
DividendsManager argues that dividend-focused investing is flawed because dividends are simply a return of shareholder money and don't increase intrinsic value. High-yielding stocks often carry higher risk and volatility, making high yields more of a red flag than green flag. |
Yield Income Payout Risk Volatility |
| 2024 Q3 |
ChinaChinese government announced aggressive stimulus measures including liquidity boosts, interest-rate easing, and mortgage support, triggering a 25% rally in the CSI 300 index. However, the manager warns that Chinese stock market interventions historically create massive volatility cycles, with the MSCI China index still below 2007 levels despite multiple stimulus episodes. The total return since 1993 has been only 1.3% annualized compared to 8-9% for developed markets. |
Stimulus Volatility Emerging Markets Government Intervention Long Term |
RatesInterest rates have declined from 5.0% to 4.6% since October 2023, but the manager expects normalization where rates compensate for inflation. With inflation at 2-3%, short-term rates should be around 2.5-3.5% and longer-term rates higher due to additional risk. The yield curve analysis suggests limited room for further rate declines unless economic growth significantly slows. |
Yield Curve Inflation Normalization Fed Policy Economic Growth | |
InflationThe manager emphasizes that if central banks stop manipulating interest rates, rates should normalize to compensate for inflation. Historical analysis shows interest rates typically stay above inflation except during the 1970s and 2010-2023 period. The manager questions why savers would save if they cannot get returns above inflation, linking this to investment and growth. |
Central Banks Savers Real Returns Economic Growth Monetary Policy | |
| 2024 Q2 |
AIThe manager discusses the AI-driven market rally, noting that the Magnificent 7 stocks averaged 38.65% returns and accounted for 70% of S&P 500 performance. He compares the current AI bubble to previous irrational periods like the Internet Bubble and warns that rationality will eventually return. |
Artificial Intelligence Technology Bubbles Nvidia Market Concentration |
| 2024 Q1 |
CryptoManager discusses Microstrategy as a Bitcoin proxy, noting the company holds 215,000 Bitcoins worth $15 billion while trading at $30+ billion enterprise value. Highlights speculative premium where investors pay $2 for every $1 of Bitcoin owned. |
Bitcoin Speculation Premium |
Risk AppetiteLetter emphasizes market irrationality through examples of Trump Media and Microstrategy, warning about speculative excess and crowd behavior. Manager advocates for margin of safety and avoiding speculative investments. |
Speculation Bubbles Irrationality Safety | |
| 2023 Q4 |
CreditManager highlights that global credit markets are 3 times the size of equity markets at over $300 trillion. With interest rates rising from historically low levels, high-yield corporate bonds now offer 8.5-9% returns, providing attractive risk-adjusted returns relative to equities. The manager suggests considering more balanced asset allocation over the next 5-10 years. |
Credit Markets High Yield Interest Rates Asset Allocation Bonds |
| 2023 Q3 |
RatesRising interest rates from Federal Reserve policy to combat inflation are blamed for Q3 market weakness. The inverted yield curve since July 2022 has historically preceded recessions by 15 months on average. Central banks have no choice but to raise rates to control inflation from pandemic money printing. |
Interest Rates Federal Reserve Yield Curve Inflation |
OilOil prices have recovered from pandemic lows of $10 to current levels around $85, with historical context showing 2008 peak at $145. Global oil consumption growth has slowed from 18% (1996-2008) to 11% (2008-2022). OPEC+ production cuts aim to support prices needed for Saudi budget balance and Russian war financing. |
Oil Prices OPEC Energy Consumption Geopolitics |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2025 | Fund Letters | Alain Chung | NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | Information Technology | Semiconductors | Bull | NASDAQ | AI, Bubble, growth, innovation, semiconductors, valuation | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| RI.PA | A case in point is the proposed tie-up between Pernod Ricard and Brown-Forman (the parent company of Jack Daniel's), currently the biggest story in the global spirits market. It's being framed as a massive consolidation play in response to rising costs, shifting consumer habits, and the friction of global tariffs. Both companies have carefully used the phrase merger of equals, likely to soothe the two iconic founding families (the Browns in Kentucky and the Ricards in France) who still hold significant voting control. The merger would create a Total Spirits powerhouse, uniting the world's second-largest spirits maker (Pernod) with the largest producer of American whisky (Brown-Forman). |
| BF-B | A case in point is the proposed tie-up between Pernod Ricard and Brown-Forman (the parent company of Jack Daniel's), currently the biggest story in the global spirits market. It's being framed as a massive consolidation play in response to rising costs, shifting consumer habits, and the friction of global tariffs. Both companies have carefully used the phrase merger of equals, likely to soothe the two iconic founding families (the Browns in Kentucky and the Ricards in France) who still hold significant voting control. The merger would create a Total Spirits powerhouse, uniting the world's second-largest spirits maker (Pernod) with the largest producer of American whisky (Brown-Forman). |
| MKC | If the Pernod/Jack Daniel's deal is a merger of equals, then the McCormick/Unilever tie-up is a total reimagining of the global pantry. As of April 9, 2026, this $65 billion deal has just officially crossed from rumour to definitive agreement. They are targeting $600 million in annual cost savings by Year 3. |
| UL | If the Pernod/Jack Daniel's deal is a merger of equals, then the McCormick/Unilever tie-up is a total reimagining of the global pantry. As of April 9, 2026, this $65 billion deal has just officially crossed from rumour to definitive agreement. They are targeting $600 million in annual cost savings by Year 3. |
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