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| # | Fund | Strategy | Style | Geography | AUM | Latest Letter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
As of Aug 19, 2026
The market gained 10% in the first half of 2026 despite top 10 S&P 500 companies being up only 2% and 20% of global oil and gas output disrupted by war. Performance leadership shifted to AI infrastructure companies, with 15 stocks up over 200% explaining 8% of the index gain. These companies saw net income and free cash flow rise 90% and 70% respectively, though market cap increased 170% and free cash flow yields compressed from 2.3% to 1.5%. The manager believes trillion-dollar AI infrastructure investments are justified if AI contributes at least 0.5% to global economic growth over 5-7 years, equating to $625 billion annually. Software companies have been identified as primary losers, down over 20% as AI threatens to lower barriers to entry and weaken pricing power. However, incumbents that embrace AI early may ultimately benefit, similar to how retailers like Home Depot used the internet to strengthen operations. Retail investor participation continues growing, particularly from lower wealth cohorts using leveraged options, though the manager believes bubble dynamics are not yet at imminent risk of bursting based on historical patterns.
AI infrastructure spending is driving a sustainable market rally led by semiconductor and hardware companies, with trillion-dollar hyperscaler investments justified by expected economic productivity gains, though software incumbents face near-term disruption risk before eventual adaptation opportunities emerge.
The manager expects the AI infrastructure boom to continue with hyperscaler spending trending upward, justifying current valuations if AI contributes at least 0.5% to global economic growth over a 5-7 year horizon. While acknowledging potential bubble dynamics in retail speculation and concentrated market leadership, the manager believes history suggests such bubbles do not burst immediately and that supply-demand equilibrium has not yet been reached. The manager anticipates technology cycle progression where market leadership will eventually shift from infrastructure and hardware to software companies that successfully adapt AI to enhance profitability, similar to previous technology cycles. Incumbents with competitive advantages that embrace AI early are viewed as having the best chance of long-term benefit.
Neutral / Balanced
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