Investor Summary
Fund Strategy
FUND PERFORMANCE AS OF 31st March 2026
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 11.53% | -12.72% | -12.72% |
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 11.53% | -12.72% | -12.72% |
Forager International Shares Fund returned -12.7% in Q1 2026, significantly underperforming benchmarks as software stocks experienced their largest markdowns in years during the so-called 'Saaspocalypse.' The fund views this broad selloff as creating attractive opportunities, having deployed cash into new investments including Sage Group and Auto Trader while increasing exposure to Japanese software companies. The investment thesis focuses on software businesses with defensive characteristics: low cost relative to value provided, high switching costs, and competitive advantages beyond code. Japanese holdings continue to deliver strong fundamentals with 22% expected revenue growth and 45% earnings growth, trading at attractive 20x forward multiples compared to expensive US peers. The fund believes AI disruption risks are real but overstated for quality incumbents, particularly those deeply embedded in customer workflows. With healthy cash levels and a focus on businesses that can return substantial value through cash flows over the next decade, the fund is positioned to capitalize on continued market volatility and attractive valuations in beaten-down quality businesses.
The fund is capitalizing on the 'Saaspocalypse' by investing in high-quality software businesses with defensive characteristics - low cost relative to value provided, high switching costs, and competitive moats beyond software - that have been indiscriminately sold despite strong fundamentals.
The fund is positioned to take advantage of the software sector selloff, believing the narrative has shifted too sharply from 'structural superiority' to 'imminent disruption.' While some disruption risks are real, the opportunity lies in identifying businesses where risks are overstated or already reflected in price. The fund expects to continue deploying cash into attractive opportunities as markets provide them.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15 2026 | 2026 Q1 | 3673.T, 4194.T, 5038.T, AUTO.L, BVS.AX, CAR.AX, FIX, SGE.L, XRO.AX | AI, Cash Deployment, disruption, Japan, software, technology, value |
SGE.L AUTO.L |
Forager is aggressively deploying cash into the software sector selloff, targeting high-quality businesses with defensive moats trading at attractive valuations. The 'Saaspocalypse' has created opportunities in companies like Sage Group and Japanese software providers that offer essential services with high switching costs. AI disruption risks are real but overstated for quality incumbents. |
| Jan 19 2026 | 2025 Q4 | AUTO.L, BKNG, CRH, CRM, FISV, FIX, FLUT, G24.DE, INCH.L, INGA.AS, IT, LNR.TO, NUTX, NXT, PSI.TO, REA.AX, SES.MI, WISE.L, XRO.AX, ZEG.L | AI, global, Quality, small caps, technology, Travel, value |
FISV NUTX NXT ZEG LN ARX AU |
Strong 15% annual return despite volatile Q4, driven by AI infrastructure plays and active portfolio management. Major refresh underway targeting smaller-cap opportunities at attractive valuations. Technology selloff creating potential entry points though valuations remain elevated. Australian tourism recovery gaining momentum. Structural tailwinds for active managers continue with record passive inflows creating opportunities for differentiated strategies. |
| Oct 9 2025 | 2025 Q3 | 4194.T, 5038.T, BVS.AX, CAT.AX, CCL.AX, CLH, CRH, CSL.AX, CTD.AX, DMP.AX, EML.AX, FI, FIX, GTK.AX, HPG.AX, IEL.AX, INCH.L, INGA.AS, JHX.AX, LLOY.L, MTX.DE, NUTX, PPE.AX, PPS.AX, REH.AX, RUL.AX, TSCO.L, TSLA, ZEG.L | Australia, Discipline, gold, Japan, small caps, value |
FIX US CRH US ZEG LN FI US VIS JP INCH LN |
Forager's disciplined value approach delivered exceptional returns as small-caps recovered, highlighted by the successful Catapult exit after four years. However, rising valuations and macro warning signs including gold's 45% surge and persistent high bond yields signal caution ahead. The fund is adapting with more conservative positioning while finding new opportunities in reformed Japanese markets. |
| Jul 27 2025 | 2025 Q2 | AMA.AX, BTH.AX, BVS.AX, CAT.AX, CHL.AX, CROX, EML.AX, EXP.AX, FIX, JLG.AX, MTO.AX, NUTX, NZX.NZ, OML.AX, PBH.AX, PPS.AX, PRN.AX, RDY.AX, THL.AX, TYR.AX | Australia, Passive flows, small caps, takeovers, technology, Tourism, value |
PSI CN 3769 JP 4733 JP 4194 CN WISE LN FIX MTX GR FLUT TKO APG ZETA |
Forager delivered 31.1% returns by exploiting passive fund dynamics in small-cap markets. Technology turnarounds led by Catapult and Bravura drove performance, while M&A activity provided additional returns. The fund capitalizes on forced selling when stocks become too small for institutional portfolios, creating opportunities for nimble active managers in an increasingly passive-dominated market. |
| Mar 31 2025 | 2025 Q1 | 4733.T, CAT, CLH, CRH, CROX, FI, FLTR.L, FOUR, INGA.AS, JD.L, LLOY.L, MOTR.L, NUTX, NXT, YETI, ZBRA | Cash, deployment, Europe, healthcare, small cap, tariffs, volatility | NUTX | Trump's tariff chaos triggered major market selloff, but Forager's defensive positioning with reduced US exposure and elevated cash proved prescient. Fund deployed capital selectively into quality opportunities like Nutex Health while European holdings provided resilience. Expecting US recession, manager continues measured deployment strategy with two portfolios of resilient businesses positioned for long-term outperformance despite near-term volatility. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 |
SaaSThe fund is actively investing in software-as-a-service companies during the 'Saaspocalypse' selloff, focusing on businesses with high value at low cost, structural switching costs, and moats beyond software. Japanese software companies continue to show strong fundamentals despite share price declines. |
Software Subscription Switching costs AI disruption Valuation |
AIArtificial intelligence is viewed as both a disruptive threat and opportunity for software businesses. The fund believes AI will compress margins for some incumbents while creating cost reduction opportunities and new revenue streams for others. |
Disruption Automation Cost reduction Competitive advantage Innovation | |
ValueThe fund is deploying cash into beaten-down opportunities, seeking companies trading at attractive valuations after significant price declines. Focus on businesses that can return substantial portions of market value through cash flows over the next decade. |
Undervalued Cash deployment Contrarian Price declines Duration | |
| 2025 Q4 |
ValuationPrice discipline and margin of safety are emphasized as key investment pillars. The manager focuses on implied real IRR as the best indicator of prospective returns, currently at 11.6% annually. Valuation asymmetry becomes more important during political uncertainty periods. |
Price IRR Margin of Safety Discount Rate |
BrazilBrazilian equity market corrected 34% in 2025 after extreme pessimism in 2024. The manager views the 2026 elections as creating short-term noise but believes price remains more important than political timing for long-term returns. |
Elections Political Risk Bovespa Institutional Risk | |
Risk ManagementTime horizon is essential for capturing asymmetry when price diverges from value. The manager emphasizes constructing multiple scenarios, especially conservative ones, to assess investment resilience and reduce reliance on single favorable outcomes. |
Time Horizon Scenario Analysis Asymmetry | |
| 2025 Q3 |
Small CapsSmall companies are finally showing signs of a strong, broad-based recovery after years of struggling against high interest rates and passive flows into larger companies. The Australian S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries Index is up 22.8% for the calendar year, well in excess of the 11.5% return from the All Ordinaries. This small cap outperformance is supported by global small-cap strength, with the MSCI World Micro Cap Index up 18.8% in Australian dollars. |
Small Caps Outperformance Recovery Value |
GoldGold is having its best annual performance since 1979, surging more than 45% year-to-date to hit record highs above US$3,800 per ounce in September 2025. This surge is linked to the weakness of the US dollar and reflects declining global confidence in US monetary and fiscal policy. Gold's rise can be seen as a loss of trust in the value of government-backed money. |
Gold Dollar Inflation Monetary Policy | |
JapanGovernance reforms, an ageing population and labour shortages are driving long-overdue change in Japan. Companies that once hoarded cash are investing in productivity and returning more to shareholders. Buybacks doubled to ¥20 trillion in 2024, and another ¥14 trillion has already been announced this year. Reform has encouraged activism and mergers and acquisitions, with foreign bidders lodging 157 takeover proposals in the first eight months of 2025. |
Japan Buybacks Reform Demographics Productivity | |
ValueThe transition from a market that offered plenty of value to one where many things are becoming expensive presents new challenges. Forager's excellent performance over the past three-year period has been rooted in exploiting the deep pessimism around small companies that characterised the years prior to 2025, when the asset class traded at historical valuation lows relative to large companies. |
Value Valuation Discipline Process | |
| 2025 Q2 |
Small CapsFund focuses on smaller companies that passive giants cannot efficiently own due to size constraints. Passive flows create opportunities through forced selling when stocks become too small for large portfolios. Fund benefits from being nimble enough to invest in smaller listed companies not accessible to many investment managers. |
Small Cap Passive Flows Liquidity Index Inclusion Market Cap |
TechnologyTechnology businesses delivered strong returns with Catapult tripling in value and Bravura delivering 114% gains. Fund targets unloved and underappreciated technology businesses, particularly those with recurring revenue models and global scale potential. Software businesses with strong margins and subscription models remain attractive. |
Software SaaS Recurring Revenue Technology Digital Transformation | |
BuybacksJapanese corporate governance reforms are driving increased buybacks and capital returns. Buybacks have doubled over the past 12 months in Japan as companies respond to Tokyo Stock Exchange pressure to improve capital efficiency and return capital to shareholders. |
Share Buybacks Capital Returns Corporate Governance Japan Capital Allocation | |
ETFsPassive funds and thematic ETFs create both challenges and opportunities. Thematic ETFs attract money near peaks and lose it at lows, creating buying opportunities. Index inclusion can significantly amplify profits from successful investments as passive funds need their share. |
Passive Investing Index Funds Thematic ETFs Index Inclusion Passive Flows | |
| 2025 Q1 |
Trade PolicyTrump's erratic tariff measures represent the largest upheaval to global trade since the Second World War. The unstructured, ad-hoc calculations behind which country gets whacked with what tariffs have erased confidence that there is a grand strategy in mind. These tariffs represent an enormous tax on already-struggling US consumers and are likely to cause a recession. |
Tariffs Trade Recession Consumer Global |
Small CapsThe Fund maintains a long-term tilt towards small and mid-cap companies—a structural feature that reflects a belief in their potential for long-run outperformance from earnings growth and less efficient pricing. However, this positioning has been a headwind in recent months with small-cap underperformance. |
Small Cap Mid Cap Underperformance Pricing Growth | |
EuropeAfter years of being treated as a global investment backwater, the narrative has shifted with surprising speed. A clear rotation is underway, with capital flowing out of US equities and back into Europe. Economic data has surprised to the upside, and sentiment has improved on growing hopes of an eventual resolution to the war in Ukraine. |
Rotation Capital Economic Sentiment Ukraine |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15, 2026 | Fund Letters | Forager International Shares Fund | SGE.L | Sage Group PLC | Software - Application | Application Software | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Accounting Software, AI integration, capital returns, defensive, Mid-market, Mission-Critical, Regulatory Tailwind, SaaS, UK, US | Login |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Fund Letters | Forager International Shares Fund | AUTO.L | Auto Trader Group PLC | Internet Content & Information | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Ai Risk, automotive, Capital-light, cash generation, Dominant platform, high margins, network effects, Online Classifieds, UK, value opportunity | Login |
| Jan 19, 2026 | Fund Letters | Steve Johnson | ZEG LN | Zegona Communications plc | Communication Services | Telecommunication Services | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Asset_Sales, deleveraging, Special_Situation, Telecom, turnaround | Login |
| Jan 19, 2026 | Fund Letters | Steve Johnson | FISV | Fiserv, Inc. | Information Technology | Transaction & Payment Processing Services | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | management, Payments, rerating, turnaround, valuation | Login |
| Jan 19, 2026 | Fund Letters | Steve Johnson | NUTX | Nutex Health, Inc. | Health Care | Health Care Facilities | Bull | NASDAQ | cashflow, Hospitals, Sentiment, Special_Situation, Volatility | Login |
| Jan 19, 2026 | Fund Letters | Steve Johnson | NXT | Nextracker Inc. | Industrials | Electrical Equipment | Bull | NASDAQ | Execution, Policy, renewables, Solar, valuation | Login |
| Jan 19, 2026 | Fund Letters | Steve Johnson | ARX AU | Aroa Biosurgery Limited | Health Care | Medical Devices | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | cashflow, Distribution, growth, Medtech, Operating_Leverage | Login |
| Oct 9, 2025 | Fund Letters | Steve Johnson | INCH LN | Inchcape plc | Consumer Discretionary | Distributors | Bull | NYSE | Autos, buybacks, Distribution, diversification, Global, profitability, valuation | Login |
| Oct 9, 2025 | Fund Letters | Steve Johnson | ZEG LN | Zegona Communications plc | Communication Services | Telecommunications | Bull | NYSE | — | Login |
| Oct 9, 2025 | Fund Letters | Steve Johnson | FI US | Fiserv, Inc. | Information Technology | Transaction & Payment Processing Services | Bull | NASDAQ | — | Login |
| Oct 9, 2025 | Fund Letters | Steve Johnson | FIX US | Comfort Systems USA, Inc. | Industrials | Building Products & Equipment | Bull | NYSE | AI, data centers, FCF, growth, HVAC, infrastructure, Margins, valuation | Login |
| Oct 9, 2025 | Fund Letters | Steve Johnson | CRH US | CRH plc | Materials | Construction Materials | Bull | NYSE | — | Login |
| Oct 9, 2025 | Fund Letters | Steve Johnson | VIS JP | Visional, Inc. | Other | Professional Services | Bull | NYSE | — | Login |
| Jul 27, 2025 | Fund Letters | Steve Johnson | PSI CN | Pason Systems Inc. | Other | - | Bull | TSX | Automation, cashflow, Cyclicality, Drilling, energy | Login |
| Jul 27, 2025 | Fund Letters | Steve Johnson | 3769 JP | GMO Payment Gateway, Inc. | Information Technology | Software - Infrastructure | Bull | NYSE | Cashless, ecommerce, growth, Payments, Software | Login |
| Jul 27, 2025 | Fund Letters | Steve Johnson | 4733 JP | OBIC Business Consultants Co., Ltd. | Information Technology | Information Technology Services | Bull | NYSE | Accounting, Margins, Recurring, SMEs, Software | Login |
| Jul 27, 2025 | Fund Letters | Steve Johnson | 4194 CN | Visional, Inc. | Communication Services | Internet Content & Information | Bull | NYSE | compounding, growth, HR, Recruitment, Software | Login |
| Jul 27, 2025 | Fund Letters | Steve Johnson | WISE LN | Wise plc | Other | - | Bull | NYSE | Digital, Fintech, Listings, Margins, Payments | Login |
| Jul 27, 2025 | Fund Letters | Steve Johnson | FIX | Comfort Systems USA, Inc. | Industrials | Engineering & Construction | Bull | NYSE | backlog, construction, Datacentres, HVAC, Margins | Login |
| Jul 27, 2025 | Fund Letters | Steve Johnson | MTX GR | MTU Aero Engines AG | Materials | Specialty Chemicals | Bull | - | Aerospace, aftermarket, Engines, growth, valuation | Login |
| Jul 27, 2025 | Fund Letters | Steve Johnson | FLUT | Flutter Entertainment plc | Consumer Discretionary | Gambling | Bull | NYSE | Betting, Gaming, growth, Online, Regulation | Login |
| Jul 27, 2025 | Fund Letters | Steve Johnson | TKO | TKO Group Holdings, Inc. | Communication Services | Entertainment | Bull | NYSE | Content, media, rights, sports, synergies | Login |
| Jul 27, 2025 | Fund Letters | Steve Johnson | APG | APi Group Corporation | Industrials | Engineering & Construction | Bull | NYSE | cashflow, consolidation, Recurring, Safety, services | Login |
| Jul 27, 2025 | Fund Letters | Steve Johnson | ZETA | Zeta Global Holdings Corp. | Information Technology | Software - Infrastructure | Bull | NYSE | Data, Marketing, SaaS, Software, valuation | Login |
| Mar 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Forager International Shares Fund | NUTX | Nutex Health Inc | Health Care | Health Care Facilities | Bull | NASDAQ | arbitration, Emergency Care, healthcare, Micro-hospitals, No Surprises Act, Reimbursement, turnaround, US | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| XRO.AX | Accounting platforms such as Xero (ASX:XRO), MYOB and Sage (LSE:SGE) are clear examples. These products typically cost small businesses tens of dollars per month and sit at the centre of financial operations—handling invoicing, payroll, compliance and reporting. Xero has historically delivered strong revenue growth with gross margins above 80% and low churn. |
| SGE.L | Sage Group (LSE:SGE) is a good illustration. It provides accounting and financial management software and fits the preference for low-cost, mission-critical products with high switching costs. In the UK, Sage supports a large installed base of millions of small business users who are familiar with the product and tend to stay despite regular price increases. Sage has also been early in embedding AI into its products through Sage Copilot, helping customers automate workflows and reduce costs across a range of use cases. The Fund invested in late February, and it was a top-five holding by quarter end. |
| BVS.AX | Bravura Solutions (ASX:BVS) illustrates this dynamic. Its software underpins core functions for wealth managers and super funds—industries with complex regulatory requirements and low tolerance for operational failure. System replacement can take years and involve significant cost. |
| CAR.AX | CAR Group (ASX:CAR) provides a clear example. The company's current market capitalisation is north of $8bn, even after a significant share price retraction. Even if the project were run by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, even in the days before AI coding, you could replicate cars.ies.com.au for a few tens of millions. The value is clearly not in the cost of the code. Cars.ies value instead lies in its position within the automotive ecosystem—connecting a large audience of buyers with a broad base of dealers and private sellers. |
| AUTO.L | Auto Trader (LSE:AUTO) is the dominant online classifieds platform for used cars in the UK. We know the business well, having followed it for a decade and owned it from 2018 to 2021. It has unusually attractive economics. For every pound of revenue, costs are roughly 30 to 35 pence, implying operating margins of around 65%. The share price for Auto Trader fell around 40% in the three months prior to our recent investment. The market is increasingly focused on AI risk - either as a direct competitor acting as a new intermediary between dealers and buyers, or indirectly as a traffic gatekeeper that captures more of the value chain than Google Search historically has. |
| 4194.T | Visional (TSE:4194) beat March quarter estimates with 28% revenue growth and a 25% operating margin, anchored by its highly profitable job matching platform BizReach. |
| 5038.T | Home-visit nursing software provider eWeLL (TSE:5038) maintained record profits for a seventh consecutive year, with management guiding for 26% revenue growth and a 45% operating margin in 2026. |
| 3673.T | Meanwhile, Broadleaf (TSE:3673), which provides automotive aftermarket software, saw operating margins jump from 3.7% to 9.9% as its cloud transition accelerated, with a forecast 130% increase in operating profit this year. |
| FIX | The last of the Fund's investment in mechanical and electrical systems installer Comfort Systems (NYSE:FIX) was sold during the quarter. This business has been a sensational contributor to the Fund's performance, with the share price rising more than threefold since the investment was made during the 'Tariff Tuesday' sell-off of April 2025. While the business remains a high-quality operator, the valuation now reflects this progress. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Sells Data | ||||||
| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| No industry data available | |||