| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
Goehring & Rozencwajg argues the commodity bull market has barely begun, with most commodities trading 46% below nominal peaks and 73% below inflation-adjusted highs. The closure of Straits of Hormuz has disrupted 20% of global oil production, highlighting energy market vulnerabilities while oil trades at near-record lows relative to gold. Silver's 220% rally has triggered a sell signal for precious metals, suggesting a 2-3 year correction period ahead despite long-term bullish fundamentals. Chinese copper demand has stalled for the first time in 25 years while supply expanded, shifting the market to surplus with inventories at 12-year highs. Uranium demand is surging from nuclear restarts and corporate partnerships while supply faces operational challenges. Natural gas shows promise as Permian production growth plateaus and LNG demand expands. Coal consumption surprisingly rose 7-8% in 2025 as plant closures were delayed. The firm views energy commodities as most undervalued, recommending reduced precious metals exposure while maintaining uranium positions and increasing oil-related investments.
Commodities remain in early stages of major bull market cycle driven by capital starvation across extractive industries, with energy commodities offering most compelling opportunities as supply growth disappoints while geopolitical risks intensify.
The commodity bull market appears to be in early stages with most commodities trading well below historical peaks. Energy commodities, particularly oil and natural gas, offer compelling opportunities as supply growth slows while geopolitical risks persist. Precious metals may face 2-3 year correction period following silver's sell signal, though long-term bull market remains intact. Uranium demand trajectory continues steepening while supply faces operational challenges.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13 2026 | 2025 Q4 | CCJ, COPX, GDX, GOOGL, META, NEE, SIL, TSLA, VST, XBM, XLE, XOP | Coal, commodities, Copper, gold, Natural Gas, oil, Silver, uranium | - | Commodity bull market in early stages with energy offering best opportunities as Hormuz closure exposes oil market tightness. Silver's parabolic rally triggers precious metals sell signal while uranium demand surges amid supply constraints. Chinese copper demand stalls, creating surplus conditions. Coal surprisingly rebounds on data center demand. Energy commodities most undervalued globally. |
| Nov 25 2025 | 2025 Q3 | ABX, CCJ, COPX, FCX, GDX, IMPUY, IVN, KAP, NVDA, NXE, OSX, SBSW, SIL, SLB, TSLA, URNM, XBM, XLE, XOM, XOP | Carry Regime, commodities, energy, gold, Mining, monetary policy, natural resources, oil | - | Managers believe the commodity bear market is ending as the carry bubble regime collapses, triggering a shift to anti-carry favoring natural resources. While maintaining gold exposure, they advocate rotating toward oil as U.S. shale production peaks and supply constraints emerge. Structural deficits developing across uranium, natural gas, and other commodities while speculative positioning remains extremely bearish, setting up for major bull market. |
| Aug 27 2025 | 2025 Q2 | COPX, GDX, PALL, SIL, URNM, XBM.TO | Agriculture, commodities, energy, gold, inflation, natural resources, oil, uranium | - | A new inflationary cycle is beginning as political pressure forces Fed accommodation, favoring natural resources over financial assets. Uranium benefits from nuclear regulatory reform, oil is extremely mispriced despite bearish consensus, and platinum group metals face critical inventory shortages. The carry trade regime is ending with rotation into real assets beginning. |
| May 22 2025 | 2025 Q1 | AAPL, AMZN, AR, BMW.DE, CCJ, CVX, FANG, GOOGL, IMPUY, META, MSFT, NFLX, NVDA, OXY, PXD, RRC, SBSW, SHOP.TO, TSLA, XOM | commodities, Drought, energy, gold, Mining, natural resources, Platinum, Shale | - | The commodity supercycle has begun as U.S. shale peaks and the global carry trade unwinds. Platinum group metals offer extraordinary upside after 16-year bear markets, while natural gas prices could double as production declines meet surging LNG demand. Gold's bull market continues with central bank support. Maximum pessimism creates compelling entry points across natural resource equities. |
| Mar 7 2025 | 2024 Q4 | AAPL, AMZN, COPX, FCG, GDX, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, OKLO, QQQ, RIO, SIL, XBM.TO, XLE, XOP | Agriculture, commodities, energy, gold, monetary policy, natural resources, nuclear | - | Natural resources are at historic undervaluation as the fourth major commodity bear market in 125 years nears its end. The proposed Mar-a-Lago Accords signal an imminent monetary regime shift that will trigger the next bull cycle. With oil extraordinarily cheap, shale production declining, and carry trades vulnerable to unwinding, natural resource equities offer the final buying opportunity before dramatic outperformance begins. |
| Dec 5 2024 | 2024 Q3 | AMZN, CCJ, GOOGL, META, MSFT, ORCL, VOW3.DE | Copper, energy, gold, Natural Gas, natural resources, nuclear, oil, uranium | - | Uranium emerges as the superior long-term investment over copper as nuclear power experiences a renaissance through small modular reactor technology attracting major tech companies. Renewable energy faces fundamental efficiency challenges while US shale production has peaked, potentially benefiting OPEC. Gold continues its bull market with central bank support and returning Western investor interest. |
| Aug 28 2024 | 2024 Q2 | AEM, FCX, GDX, Gold, NEM, SCCO, SIL, XLE, XOP | Agriculture, commodities, Copper, energy, gold, Natural Gas, oil, uranium | - | Commodities are extremely undervalued relative to equities, marking the start of a multi-year bull market. US shale oil and gas production has peaked and is declining, shifting global energy dynamics. Gold stocks offer exceptional value despite gold hitting new highs. Natural gas faces supply shortfalls as LNG demand grows. Historical analysis shows minimal cost to being early in commodity cycles. |
| Jun 15 2024 | 2024 Q1 | 7203.T, BHP.AX, CCJ, COP, CVX, DVN, EOG, FCX, Gold, HAL, MRO, NEM, OXY, PXD, RELIANCE.NS, RIO, RRC, SHOP.TO, SLB, XOM | Agriculture, AI, Copper, Energy Transition, gold, Natural Gas, oil, uranium | - | Natural gas and oil shale production has peaked while demand surges from LNG exports and AI data centers, creating the most asymmetric opportunity in decades. Uranium supply disappoints as reactor demand grows. Central Banks accumulate gold despite Western selling. Copper enters structural deficit. Agriculture faces weather risks amid extreme bearishness. Natural resources offer exceptional value. |
| Feb 23 2024 | 2023 Q4 | - | Agriculture, commodities, Copper, energy, Gas, gold, natural resources, oil, uranium | - | Natural resource specialists argue EV adoption will disappoint due to energy inefficiency, supporting oil demand growth. US shale production may decline while Saudi reserves face constraints. Natural gas, uranium, and agricultural markets approach structural deficits despite bearish sentiment. Central bank gold buying overwhelms Western selling. Commodity fundamentals strengthening for sustained bull market. |
| Nov 29 2023 | 2023 Q3 | BHP, CCO, CVX, GDX, HES, IVN, IVNEF, KAP, OIH, PXD, QQQ, RIO, RRC, SIL, URA, XLE, XOM, XOP | commodities, demand, energy, natural resources, nuclear, Renewables, Shale, Supply Deficit | - | Goehring & Rozencwajg argue energy demand will surprise upward due to Jevons Paradox while renewable investments represent massive malinvestment. Multiple commodities entering structural deficits including oil and uranium. Natural gas convergence imminent as shale plateaus. Central bank gold buying signals monetary regime change. Energy assets transitioning from uninvestible to must-own. |
| Aug 16 2023 | 2023 Q2 | - | Bull Market, commodities, energy, gold, inflation, natural resources, oil, uranium | - | Goehring & Rozencwajg position hard assets as the decade's winning investment theme, with gold potentially reaching $14,000-$32,000 per ounce. Uranium enters its first persistent deficit, oil rallies above $100 as SPR liquidations end, and natural gas tightens from LNG export capacity exceeding supply. Commodities emerge from radical undervaluation while financial assets face inflationary headwinds. |
| May 31 2023 | 2023 Q1 | COPX, GDX, GNR, IGE, OIH, RRC, SIL, XBM.TO, XOP | Central Banks, commodities, Depletion, energy, gold, Natural Gas, oil, Permian | - | Hubbert's Peak has arrived with Permian Basin depletion ending the shale revolution within twelve months. Natural gas faces structural deficits from LNG export growth exceeding shale production capacity. Record central bank gold buying supports precious metals despite rate hikes. Commodities emerge from 120-year undervaluation into decade-long bull market driven by supply constraints and potential dollar reserve currency loss. |
| Jan 3 2023 | 2022 Q4 | BKEN, BP, DUK, ECCE, PR | - | - | |
| Nov 22 2022 | 2022 Q3 | - | - | - | |
| Aug 18 2022 | 2022 Q2 | - | - | - | |
| May 18 2022 | 2022 Q1 | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
OilOil represents the cheapest major asset class globally, trading at near-record lows relative to gold despite balanced fundamentals. The closure of the Straits of Hormuz has created the largest supply shock in industry history, with 20 million barrels per day disrupted. Non-OPEC supply growth is slowing dramatically, with U.S. shale production plateauing outside the Permian Basin. |
Crude Oil Brent WTI Shale OPEC |
Natural GasNatural gas ranks in the 99.5th percentile of historical undervaluation relative to equities. U.S. production growth has concentrated entirely in the Permian Basin, with other shale regions declining. Once the Permian's current gas production surge runs its course, supply growth should plateau and eventually decline, setting the stage for materially higher prices. |
Henry Hub LNG Shale Gas Permian | |
SilverSilver surged 51% in Q4 and over 140% for the year, staging a dramatic catch-up rally relative to gold. This magnitude of silver outperformance has historically marked important turning points, triggering sell signals for precious metals. The current rally parallels the 1979 episode that signaled the end of the great gold bull market. |
Silver Gold Ratio Precious Metals | |
Platinum Group MetalsPGMs continued their powerful advance with platinum and palladium each surging 28% in Q4. Policy reversals in both the U.S. and Europe are unwinding the aggressive push toward electric vehicles, preserving demand for internal combustion engines and auto-catalysts. The bearish narrative built on rapid EV adoption is being rewritten. |
Platinum Palladium Auto Catalysts Electric Vehicles | |
CopperCopper rose 17% in Q4 and 41% for the year, but the market has moved back into surplus as reflected in rising exchange inventories. Inventories now exceed 1.2 million tonnes, levels last seen in 2003 when copper traded below $0.90 per pound. The firm has shifted from short-term bullish to bearish on copper. |
Copper Base Metals Inventories | |
CommoditiesThe commodity bull market has barely begun, with most commodities still 46% below historical nominal peaks and 73% below real peaks when adjusted for inflation. Commodities trade near the lowest levels relative to equities observed in over a century. Historical analysis suggests the current cycle could require three- to five-fold price increases to reach typical peak valuations. |
Commodity Cycle Capital Cycle Valuation | |
GoldGold advanced 13% in Q4 and 65% for the year, but silver's dramatic catch-up rally has triggered a sell signal for precious metals. Historical precedent from 1973, 1979, 2011, and 2020 shows that such silver rallies mark important turning points. The firm recommends reducing exposure to gold and silver equities in the short term. |
Gold Precious Metals Sell Signal | |
UraniumUranium demand is surging while meeting a fragile supply base, creating fundamental tightness in the market. The section title indicates significant discussion of uranium supply-demand dynamics, though detailed analysis is referenced for later in the letter. |
Uranium Nuclear Supply Demand | |
| 2025 Q3 |
GoldGold continues strong performance with 16% gain in Q3 and 45% year-to-date. Western ETF buying remains robust with 200 tonnes accumulated in Q3. Central banks purchased 220 tonnes in Q3, maintaining steady accumulation. Gold bull market still in early stages despite some valuation measures flashing overvaluation signals. |
Gold ETFs Central Banks Bull Market Valuation |
OilOil prices declined 4% in Q3 amid bearish sentiment, but managers argue fundamentals are improving. Permian Basin oil production has peaked and turned negative year-over-year. IEA quietly turning more bullish on long-term demand while supply constraints emerge. Missing barrels suggest demand is being undercounted by 1.6 million barrels per day. |
Oil Permian Supply Demand IEA | |
Natural GasU.S. natural gas remained weak in Q3 with 5% decline, but supply growth is stalling outside the Permian. All major shale plays except Permian have peaked and begun declining. LNG demand growth and data center electricity needs provide bullish catalysts for convergence with international prices. |
Natural Gas Shale LNG Data Centers Supply | |
UraniumUranium prices rose 12% in Q3 to $81.90 per pound with strong equity performance. Supply problems developing at major projects including Kazatomprom's Budenovskoye and Cameco's McArthur River. Hedge funds remain heavily short despite positive nuclear policy developments including $120 billion U.S. nuclear deal. |
Uranium Supply Nuclear Kazatomprom Hedge Funds | |
CopperCopper market shifted from deficit to surplus as China's demand estimates were revised down by 4 million tonnes for 2023-2024. Global copper market now in 350,000 tonne surplus for 2025. Supply disruptions at Grasberg and Kakula mines provide short-term support but fundamentals have turned neutral. |
Copper China Surplus Demand Supply Disruptions | |
AgricultureGrain markets mixed in Q3 with corn up 5%, soybeans up 1%, wheat down 4%. Speculative traders built near-record short positions in corn and wheat while commercial traders took opposite long positions, suggesting major bottoms forming. Grain prices down 50% from 2022 highs. |
Grains Corn Wheat Positioning Bottoms | |
CoalCoal prices flat in Q3 but coal equities surged 70% following 25% gain in Q2. Despite IEA claims that 2025 could mark peak coal demand, managers believe global coal demand will continue growing into early next decade. Coal stocks have been leaders in commodity bull markets. |
Coal Equities Demand IEA Bull Market | |
Platinum Group MetalsPlatinum gained 19% in Q3 following 37% gain in Q2, with palladium up 16% and rhodium up 30%. Platinum market heading for second consecutive year of near 1 million ounce deficit. Above-ground stocks falling below 3 million ounces. Lease rates spiked to 35% indicating tight physical market. |
Platinum Palladium Deficit Lease Rates Physical Market | |
| 2025 Q2 |
InflationThe managers believe a new long inflationary cycle has begun, similar to the 1970s. They argue that political pressure on the Federal Reserve will lead to monetary accommodation, just as it did with Martin and Burns. They expect Trump to pressure Powell into cutting rates or replacing him with a more compliant successor. |
Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Interest Rates Political Pressure Historical Precedent |
OilOil is viewed as extremely mispriced, similar to gold in 1999. The managers believe the IEA's bearish forecasts are wrong, citing seven key misconceptions including overstated surpluses, understated demand, and overestimated non-OPEC supply growth. They see oil as potentially the best-performing commodity of the next five years. |
Energy Supply Deficit Demand Growth Mispricing Contrarian | |
UraniumTrump's nuclear regulatory reform could unlock Small Modular Reactor development, creating massive new uranium demand. The managers see this as potentially the most consequential policy of Trump's presidency, with molten-sodium SMRs offering dramatically improved energy efficiency and safety. |
Nuclear SMR Regulatory Reform Energy Efficiency Policy | |
Natural GasUS shale gas production is plateauing and will soon decline, similar to oil. The managers expect the gap between North American and international gas prices to close rapidly as new LNG export capacity comes online against declining domestic production. |
Shale LNG Production Decline Price Convergence Export Capacity | |
Platinum Group MetalsPlatinum and palladium are in structural deficits that continue to widen. South African mine output is declining, recycled supply is falling short due to higher used car prices, and investment demand is returning. Above-ground stocks are approaching critically low levels. |
Structural Deficit Supply Shortage Investment Demand Inventory Drawdown South Africa | |
GoldGold is in a bull market but without significant investor participation, which the managers view as bullish. Western ETF outflows during rising prices mirror the contrarian setup from 2011 in reverse. Central bank buying continues, particularly from China. |
Bull Market Contrarian Signal Central Banks ETF Flows Investor Sentiment | |
AgricultureGrain markets show improved fundamentals with fertilizer prices rising while grain prices remain flat. The managers believe this divergence signals coming grain price increases. Drought conditions across multiple regions add weather risk to already tight supply-demand balances. |
Fertilizers Drought Supply Demand Weather Risk Input Costs | |
CoalDespite renewable energy expansion, China continues building new coal plants and mines at a massive scale. The managers argue this represents energy addition rather than transition, with 450 new mines planned to add 1.35 billion tons of annual capacity. |
China Energy Addition Mine Development Power Generation Capacity Expansion | |
| 2025 Q1 |
Platinum Group MetalsThe bear market in platinum and palladium is drawing to a close after 16 years for platinum and 4 years for palladium. Demand shifts favor PGMs as EV adoption disappoints and hybrid vehicles require more PGMs than traditional ICE vehicles. Both markets are in structural deficit with supply constraints from South Africa and declining recycled supply. |
Platinum Palladium Catalytic Hybrid Deficit |
OilU.S. shale oil production has plateaued and 2024 appears to be its high-water mark, marking the most consequential shift in global oil markets in a generation. Despite maximum pessimism among investors, the end of shale growth combined with rising demand creates a bullish setup reminiscent of previous supply-driven oil bull markets. |
Shale Peak Production OPEC Supply | |
Natural GasNorth American natural gas is positioned for significant price appreciation as U.S. shale gas production has peaked and begun declining while demand accelerates from data centers and LNG exports. The market has swung from massive surplus to deficit conditions, with Henry Hub prices remaining 70% below global benchmarks. |
Henry Hub LNG Deficit Shale Export | |
GoldGold rose 19% in Q1 2025 supported by Western investor return and continued central bank buying. Despite strong performance, Western investors remain net sellers of gold equities, suggesting the bull market has barely begun. Central banks purchased 244 tonnes in Q1 with China and Poland as major buyers. |
Central Banks ETFs Western China Bull Market | |
UraniumUranium faces a hedge fund-driven short squeeze as the same funds that drove prices to $106 are now pressing them lower using the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust. Despite spot price weakness, term prices continue rising and fundamentals remain strong with reactor restarts and new build announcements accelerating globally. |
Hedge Funds Sprott Short Squeeze Term Prices Nuclear | |
CopperCopper market dynamics shifted dramatically as revised WBMS data shows China's 2024 consumption declined 10% rather than growing 2.5%, flipping the market from deficit to surplus. This explains the rise in exchange inventories and suggests China's copper appetite may be structurally moderating after decades of growth. |
China Consumption Surplus Inventories Demand | |
AgricultureThe 2025 growing season begins with widespread drought conditions across the U.S., South America, and Eastern Europe. With grain inventories already reduced from 2024 yield disappointments, any weather-related production shortfalls could trigger significant price increases in corn, soybeans, and wheat. |
Drought Weather Yields Inventories Grains | |
CommoditiesThe great commodity bull market may have quietly begun as the global carry trade shows signs of unwinding. Technology stocks weakened while commodity equities strengthened in Q1, suggesting a potential reversal of the 15-year trend that favored growth stocks over natural resources. |
Carry Trade Technology Bull Market Reversal Cycle | |
| 2024 Q4 |
CommoditiesCommodities are as undervalued relative to stocks as they have ever been, marking the fourth episode of extreme undervaluation in 125 years. The authors believe the time to buy natural resource equities has arrived as the long-dormant bull market may be stirring again. History shows every commodity bear cycle has ended with a monetary regime shock. |
Commodities Natural Resources Undervaluation Bull Market Monetary Regime |
Monetary RegimeA major shift in the global monetary system may be imminent through the proposed Mar-a-Lago Accords. These reforms include revaluing Federal Reserve gold holdings, restructuring national debt, and implementing tariff regimes. Every past commodity bull market has been triggered by similar monetary regime changes. |
Monetary Policy Gold Standard Dollar Federal Reserve Tariffs | |
OilOil is extraordinarily undervalued by historical standards, with the gold-to-oil ratio at one of its cheapest levels in over 150 years. U.S. shale production growth has turned negative, setting up conditions similar to 2003-2008 when OPEC regained pricing power and oil surged fivefold. |
Oil Shale OPEC Energy Valuation | |
Natural GasNatural gas emerged as one of the best-performing commodities in 2024, climbing 45%. Year-over-year growth in U.S. gas shales has turned negative for the first time, while new LNG export facilities will add 6 Bcf per day of demand in 2025, creating structural tightness. |
Natural Gas LNG Shale Gas Supply Deficit Infrastructure | |
GoldGold has surged 35% year-over-year and is signaling an approaching turning point in monetary regimes. Central banks purchased over 1,000 tonnes for the third consecutive year, while Western investors remain largely absent, creating a generational buying opportunity in gold equities. |
Gold Central Banks Monetary Policy Safe Haven Reserve Currency | |
NuclearA new investment cycle in nuclear power is emerging driven by AI data center demand and corporate commitments. Meta, Amazon, Google, and Microsoft have announced nuclear partnerships, while Oklo signed a 12-gigawatt agreement with Switch. The nuclear renaissance is accelerating with molten sodium reactor technology. |
Nuclear AI Data Centers SMR Clean Energy | |
AgricultureAgricultural markets are at a major turning point after the USDA dramatically revised corn and soybean yield estimates downward. Global grain inventories have tightened significantly, and the Gleissberg solar cycle may trigger drought conditions similar to the 1930s Dust Bowl, setting up a potential bull market. |
Agriculture Grains Drought Weather Supply Shock | |
CopperCopper markets remain in structural deficit despite recent weakness, with global demand growing 2.5% while mine supply increased only 2%. Exchange inventories are declining after last year's short squeeze, confirming persistent tightness. However, long-term demand assumptions from renewables may be overly optimistic. |
Copper Supply Deficit China Mining Industrial Metals | |
| 2024 Q3 |
UraniumNuclear power is experiencing a renaissance driven by data center energy demands and SMR technology. Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta are all investing in nuclear power for their data centers. Small modular reactors offer superior energy efficiency (180:1 EROI vs 100:1 for traditional reactors) and enhanced safety features. |
Nuclear SMR Data Centers Energy Efficiency Safety |
CopperDespite widespread bullish sentiment, copper demand forecasts based on renewable energy adoption may be overly optimistic due to inferior energy efficiency of renewables. China has entered a phase of copper overconsumption, consuming 45 pounds per capita above required levels to support GDP growth. |
Renewables China Overconsumption Energy Efficiency Demand | |
Natural GasUS natural gas production has peaked and begun declining after 15 years of growth. Production fell 3% since December 2023 peak while demand is set to surge from LNG exports and data centers. Market shifting from structural surplus to structural deficit. |
Production Peak LNG Structural Deficit Shale Demand | |
OilShale oil production has peaked with all major basins showing signs of depletion. Despite bearish sentiment reminiscent of 2003, non-OPEC supply growth is slowing dramatically, potentially setting up OPEC to regain pricing power and market share. |
Shale Peak Depletion OPEC Non-OPEC Supply | |
GoldGold is in a new bull market driven by central bank buying and returning Western investor interest. Despite 38% YTD gains, gold equities remain extremely cheap with declining ETF shares outstanding even as gold prices rise, presenting contrarian opportunity. |
Central Banks Western Investors Bull Market Contrarian Valuation | |
Energy TransitionRenewable energy faces fundamental challenges due to inferior energy efficiency (EROI of 5-15:1) compared to hydrocarbons (30:1) and nuclear (100-180:1). Germany's renewable investments have led to economic destabilization, questioning widespread adoption assumptions. |
EROI Efficiency Germany Economic Impact Sustainability | |
| 2024 Q2 |
CommoditiesCommodities are as undervalued relative to equities as they have ever been, with the commodity-to-Dow ratio at extreme lows. All signs point to the early stages of a prolonged commodity bull market likely stretching into the 2030s. The cost of being early in commodity investments has proven minimal historically. |
Undervaluation Bull Market Cycles Timing |
GoldGold has surged past $2,500 for the first time while gold stocks remain at historically cheap valuations. Central banks have emerged as significant buyers, offsetting Western investor selling. The disconnect between gold prices and gold equities presents extraordinary opportunity for contrarian investors. |
Central Banks Valuation Disconnect Opportunity | |
Natural GasUS natural gas production is plummeting by 5 billion cubic feet per day since December 2023, marking the first non-COVID related year-on-year decline in shale production history. The market has swung from surplus to deficit as new LNG capacity comes online. |
Production Decline Shale LNG Deficit | |
OilUS shale oil production has peaked and begun declining after reaching 8.74 million barrels per day in December. The largest engine of non-OPEC supply growth over the past fifteen years is sputtering, potentially shifting market share and pricing power back to OPEC. |
Shale Peak Production Decline OPEC Supply | |
UraniumKazatomprom faces significant production challenges with sulfuric acid shortages and delays at the massive Budenovskoye projects. The uranium market is in structural deficit with reactor demand outstripping mine supply by 170 million pounds. |
Kazatomprom Production Shortfall Deficit Nuclear | |
CopperCopper experienced a severe short squeeze reaching $5.20 per pound before retreating. Mine supply is showing unexpected growth led by the Democratic Republic of Congo, while China's consumption patterns may be reaching an inflection point. |
Short Squeeze Supply Growth China DRC | |
AgricultureGrain markets remain bearish with corn and soybean prices declining, but drought conditions in Brazil, Ukraine, and Russia pose risks. The potential Gleissberg cycle could impact global weather patterns and agricultural production. |
Drought Gleissberg Cycle Weather Brazil | |
CoalDespite massive investments in renewable energy, global coal consumption hit record highs in 2023, growing by 1.5%. The energy transition ironically increases coal dependence due to intermittency issues and manufacturing requirements for green technologies. |
Record Consumption Energy Transition Intermittency China | |
| 2024 Q1 |
Natural GasNorth American natural gas market has reached a turning point with production likely peaking in December 2023 while demand is set to surge from LNG exports and AI data centers. The firm expects a structural deficit to emerge as shale production falters just as new LNG capacity comes online and data center proliferation drives unprecedented electricity demand. |
LNG Shale Data Centers Henry Hub Production Peak |
OilUS shale oil production appears to have peaked, following historical patterns predicted by Hubbert's theories. The firm draws parallels to 1970 and 2003 when major non-OPEC supply sources rolled over, leading to significant oil price increases as OPEC gained market share and pricing power. |
Shale Peak Oil OPEC Hubbert Non-OPEC | |
AIArtificial intelligence proliferation will drive massive electricity demand growth, requiring an estimated 7 bcf/d of natural gas by 2030. Training and inference operations consume enormous amounts of energy, with natural gas being the primary beneficiary due to intermittency issues with renewables and long lead times for nuclear power. |
Data Centers Electricity Demand Training Inference Energy Consumption | |
UraniumThe uranium bull market continues with supply disappointments from Kazatomprom and Cameco while reactor demand grows sharply. The firm maintains bullish outlook despite recent price appreciation, expecting the structural deficit to worsen as new mine supply fails to meet growing reactor demand. |
Kazatomprom Reactor Demand Supply Deficit Nuclear Power Mine Production | |
GoldGold is in a pitched battle between Western investors selling and Central Banks plus Eastern retail buyers accumulating. Despite Western ETF liquidation, gold reached new highs driven by unprecedented Central Bank purchases and changing investment behavior from Chinese and Indian retail investors. |
Central Banks ETF Liquidation Eastern Buying Monetary Regime Real Rates | |
CopperCopper markets shifted into structural deficit in 2023 with demand growing 7.5% while mine supply disappointed. Strong demand growth from India and Indonesia, combined with limited new supply primarily from DRC and Mongolia, supports the firm's bullish outlook for the metal. |
Structural Deficit India Demand Mine Supply Treatment Charges Infrastructure | |
AgricultureGrain markets show extreme speculative bearishness despite heightened weather risks and low subsoil moisture. The firm sees potential for weather-related supply disruptions, particularly given historical patterns associated with low sunspot activity and the Gleissberg Cycle. |
Weather Risk Speculative Positioning Gleissberg Cycle Subsoil Moisture Grain Stocks | |
Energy TransitionThe firm critiques energy transition policies and renewable energy efficiency using EROI analysis. They argue that wind and solar offer inferior energy returns compared to hydrocarbons and that standardized accounting frameworks are needed to properly assess energy investments. |
EROI Wind Solar Energy Efficiency GAAP Principles IEA Policies | |
| 2023 Q4 |
Electric VehiclesEVs will struggle to achieve widespread adoption despite subsidies and ICE bans due to inferior energy efficiency compared to internal combustion engines. Norway's EV experience demonstrates unintended consequences including continued ICE ownership and increased total energy consumption. |
Energy Efficiency Subsidies Battery Manufacturing Carbon Emissions Norway |
OilOil demand will surprise to the upside for years to come as EV adoption fails. US shale production growth is dramatically slowing and may turn negative, while Saudi Arabia's reserve constraints suggest production limitations ahead. |
Shale Production Demand Growth Saudi Reserves Production Decline Structural Deficit | |
Natural GasNorth American natural gas market resembles uranium in 2018 - about to slip into structural deficit despite widespread pessimism. Major shale basins are plateauing and LNG export capacity is increasing dramatically. |
Structural Deficit Shale Depletion LNG Exports Marcellus Haynesville | |
UraniumUranium entered structural deficit with financial buyers emerging as new demand source. Kazatomprom production shortfalls and utility restocking needs will drive prices higher in what could become a chaotic bull market. |
Structural Deficit Financial Buyers Production Shortfalls Utility Demand Nuclear Power | |
CopperStrong demand growth from China, India, and Indonesia driven by economic development and infrastructure needs. New exploration technologies like Typhoon and I-ROX could disrupt supply dynamics long-term. |
Demand Growth Infrastructure Exploration Technology Indonesia India | |
GoldCentral bank accumulation more than offset Western investor liquidation, driving gold to new all-time highs despite rising real interest rates. Monetary regime change may be approaching. |
Central Banks Western Liquidation Monetary Regime Real Interest Rates All-time Highs | |
AgricultureGrain traders approach record bearish levels with speculators holding near-record net short positions while commercials are net long. This positioning historically indicates major buying opportunities. |
Trader Positioning Commercial Longs Speculator Shorts Corn Soybeans | |
| 2023 Q3 |
Energy TransitionManagers argue renewable energy investments represent history's worst malinvestment due to poor energy return on investment (EROI). Wind and solar have terrible EROIs compared to fossil fuels, requiring massive raw materials and energy inputs. Recent project cancellations and cost increases validate their contrarian view that renewables cannot replace conventional energy. |
Renewables EROI Wind Solar Malinvestment |
UraniumUranium has transitioned from stranded asset to market star as the sector enters its first structural deficit in history. Secondary supplies from post-Fukushima stockpiles have been exhausted, revealing underlying supply shortages. Global nuclear capacity pledges at COP28 will require four-fold increase in mine supply. |
Nuclear Deficit Stockpiles COP28 Mine Supply | |
Natural GasNorth American natural gas trades at 75% discount to global prices but convergence is imminent as shale production plateaus. Marcellus and Haynesville basins have reached 50% of recoverable reserves. New LNG export capacity will create structural deficit, potentially driving prices four-fold higher. |
Shale LNG Convergence Marcellus Haynesville | |
OilOil has shifted from uninvestible to must-own as markets enter structural deficit for first time ever. Strategic petroleum reserve releases masked underlying tightness. Shale production is plateauing with Permian expected to peak in 2024, while major acquisitions signal industry consolidation around scarce high-quality acreage. |
Shale SPR Permian Acquisitions Deficit | |
GoldTraditional relationship between gold and real interest rates has broken down as central banks accumulate record amounts while Western investors sell. Central bank purchases of 1,136 tonnes in 2022 offset Western ETF liquidations. Managers believe monetary regime change is imminent requiring gold for trade settlement. |
Central Banks Real Rates Monetary Regime ETF Liquidations | |
CopperNear-term copper fundamentals remain strong with Chinese demand up 12% and inventories at dangerously low levels. However, new technologies including Typhoon exploration and Jetti processing could unlock significant new supply sources over medium term, similar to how SX/EW technology disrupted markets in 1990s. |
Technology Typhoon Jetti Supply Exploration | |
AgricultureMultiple agricultural crises are developing due to disruptive weather patterns from El Niño and emerging food nationalism. Rice crisis exemplifies broader trends with India restricting exports. Managers predict speculative capital will enter agricultural markets, potentially creating dangerous bubbles in essential food commodities. |
El Niño Food Nationalism Rice Crisis Speculation Weather | |
| 2023 Q2 |
GoldGold is positioned as the quintessential hard asset for the coming decade, with managers arguing it remains exceptionally cheap despite advancing eight-fold since 1999. They predict gold could reach $14,000-$32,000 per ounce based on historical relationships with the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and financial assets. |
Gold Precious Metals Monetary Base Inflation Currency |
UraniumUranium has reached a pivotal inflection point and could force prices higher by three to four-fold over the next several years. For the first time in history, uranium has slipped into a persistent and widening deficit as commercial inventories have been drawn down significantly. |
Uranium Nuclear Energy Deficit Supply | |
OilOil is positioned for a sharp rally with prices expected to move well above $100 per barrel. The recent selloff resulted from strategic petroleum reserve liquidations, but with those ending, commercial inventories are set to fall sharply throughout the rest of the year. |
Oil Energy SPR Inventories Demand | |
Natural GasNatural gas prices are reaching a turning point with the US having overbuilt LNG export capacity without adequately considering upstream feedstock sources. US natural gas remains the cheapest unit of energy globally by 75%, but this discount is expected to evaporate as demand exceeds domestic supply. |
Natural Gas LNG Export Supply Demand | |
CopperCopper fundamentals are increasingly bullish with exchange inventories at near all-time lows and strong global demand. The firm believes speculators will soon panic similar to 2005-2006, potentially driving copper prices 200% higher in six months. |
Copper Inventories Demand China India | |
CommoditiesCommodities are as undervalued as they have ever been relative to financial assets, similar to conditions in the late 1960s and 1999. A commodity bull market has likely started, which historically leads to massive contractions in the Dow-gold ratio. |
Commodities Valuation Financial Assets Bull Market Cycles | |
| 2023 Q1 |
OilConventional oil production has peaked globally and unconventional production growth is concentrated in just six counties in West Texas. The Permian Basin shows signs of depletion with per-well productivity declining 6% year-over-year for the first time. The firm predicts Hubbert's Peak is finally here with the Permian likely to peak within twelve months. |
Permian Shale Depletion Production Peak |
Natural GasDespite recent weakness due to warm weather and the Freeport LNG outage, the structural bullish thesis remains intact. New LNG export capacity of 6 bcf/d coming online by late 2024 while shale gas production faces depletion challenges. Henry Hub could rise five-fold to converge with global prices. |
LNG Exports Freeport Marcellus Haynesville | |
GoldCentral bank buying has reached record levels at 1,140 tonnes in 2022, supporting gold prices despite rising interest rates. The correction has been much less severe than in the 1970s due to this unprecedented central bank demand. The next leg of the bull market is underway with gold near all-time highs. |
Central Banks Reserves Monetary China Buying | |
CopperWhile the firm's 2016 bullish thesis has become consensus, short-term fundamentals remain strong with Chinese demand surging 18% in early 2023. However, they monitor potential risks including renewable energy disappointments and new supply technologies like Jetti Resources' leaching breakthrough. |
Renewables China Demand Supply Technology | |
CommoditiesCommodities are emerging from the most radical undervaluation in 120 years, similar to periods in 1929, 1969, and 1999. The firm expects a decade-long bull market driven by capital cycle dynamics, with the potential end of US dollar reserve status as the final catalyst. |
Undervaluation Capital Cycle Dollar Reserve Currency Bull Market | |
AgricultureMultiple weather patterns suggest elevated drought risk in the US Midwest, including La Niña to El Niño transition and negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Chinese swine flu outbreak could drive corn import demand while global grain inventories remain at thirty-year lows relative to consumption. |
Drought Weather China Corn Inventories | |
UraniumThe physical uranium market is now in deficit with quickly mobilized spot volumes becoming scarce. The Sprott Physical Uranium Trust trading at a 14% discount to NAV indicates bearish sentiment, but this creates opportunity as financial players could drive sharp price increases. |
Deficit Sprott Physical Utilities Speculation |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
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| No Elevator Pitches found | ||||||||||
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| CCJ | According to data reported by Cameco, term prices rose roughly 7% during the quarter to $81.55 per pound, narrowing the gap with spot prices, which ended the quarter at $81.60. |
| COPX | Copper mining stocks, as measured by the COPX copper stock ETF, rose 20% during the quarter, while the XBM base metals equity ETF advanced 17%. For the full year, the gains were even more dramatic: the COPX ETF surged nearly 90%. |
| GDX | The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) rose 12.3% during the quarter, while the Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL) advanced nearly 17%. Over the full year, gold and silver equities were clear market leaders, surging roughly 140% and 166%, respectively. |
| GOOGL | In the third quarter, Google, Kairos Power, and the Tennessee Valley Authority announced a major collaboration centered on a novel power purchase agreement. Google followed this announcement with another significant step forward. On October 27, Google and NextEra Energy announced plans to restart the Duane Arnold Energy Center. |
| META | On January 9, Meta Platforms unveiled a new agreement with Vistra—the largest generator of competitive electricity in the United States—as well as with TerraPower and Oklo. The announcement builds on Meta's agreement last year with Constellation Energy and positions the company to become one of the largest corporate purchasers of nuclear-generated electricity in the United States. |
| NEE | On October 27, Google and NextEra Energy announced plans to restart the Duane Arnold Energy Center, a 600-megawatt nuclear facility that had been shut down in 2020. |
| SIL | The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) rose 12.3% during the quarter, while the Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL) advanced nearly 17%. Over the full year, gold and silver equities were clear market leaders, surging roughly 140% and 166%, respectively. |
| TSLA | Under the previous system, companies that produced only electric vehicles—most notably Tesla—generated large quantities of credits that could then be sold to manufacturers falling short of their EV production targets, allowing them to avoid regulatory penalties. |
| VST | On January 9, Meta Platforms unveiled a new agreement with Vistra—the largest generator of competitive electricity in the United States—as well as with TerraPower and Oklo. |
| XBM | Copper mining stocks, as measured by the COPX copper stock ETF, rose 20% during the quarter, while the XBM base metals equity ETF advanced 17%. For the full year, the gains were even more dramatic: the COPX ETF surged nearly 90%, and the XBM ETF climbed more than 50%. |
| XLE | Large-cap integrated oil companies held up better: the XLE ETF fell only about 1%. |
| XOP | Exploration and production companies, as measured by the XOP ETF—which tracks the S&P Oil & Gas Exploration and Production Index—declined roughly 4%. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
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| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
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| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
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