| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | 2.4% | 11.4% |
| 2025 | 2024 |
|---|---|
| 11.4% | 6.7% |
The Grey Owl All-Season Strategy delivered 11.4% returns in 2025, successfully meeting objectives to minimize drawdowns, outperform cash, and participate in risk-on rallies. The strategy demonstrated resilience during early 2025 volatility when the Magnificent 7 declined 30% while GOAS was down less than 3% at its worst point. The manager has repositioned for 2026, increasing exposure to small-cap equities, global markets (particularly emerging markets), and commodities while reducing fixed income and cash from 28% to 16%. This positioning reflects expectations for accelerating economic growth and broadening market participation beyond mega-cap technology. Small-caps and commodities are already outperforming with 7.6% and 7.4% year-to-date gains respectively through January 23, 2026. The strategy maintains its all-season diversification framework while tilting toward growth assets. Key risks include difficult comparisons for mega-cap technology companies as AI capital expenditure peaks may be behind them. The manager expects cyclical outperformance to continue through the first half of 2026.
The Grey Owl All-Season Strategy maintains a diversified, risk-managed approach while positioning for meaningful economic growth, favoring cyclical outperformance through overweight exposure to small-cap equities and commodities as market leadership broadens beyond mega-cap technology.
The manager expects conditions to favor cyclical outperformance and broadening of equity participation, though notes this phase may only persist through the first half of 2026. They are prepared to adjust as conditions evolve, maintaining a diversified approach while remaining tilted toward growth.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23 2026 | 2025 Q4 | ACWI, GLD, GSG, IWM, MAGS, SPY, TLT | commodities, Cyclical, diversification, gold, growth, inflation, risk management, small caps | - | Small-capitalization equities are significantly outperforming, up 7.6% year-to-date through January 23, 2026, as market leadership expands beyond mega-cap technology. The manager has increased exposure to US small-cap equities, believing conditions now favor cyclical outperformance and broadening equity participation. Commodities are outperforming with 7.4% year-to-date gains through January 23, 2026, supported by accelerating economic growth. The portfolio has added to commodities exposure as part of positioning for meaningful economic growth and cyclical outperformance. Gold delivered exceptional performance with 63.7% gains for full year 2025 and continued strength with 11.5% gains in Q4 2025. The manager has expanded precious metals exposure as part of the all-season framework positioning. Economic growth is accelerating according to Hedgeye's real GDP projection model, gaining significant momentum in Q1 and continuing through much of Q2 2026. This growth acceleration historically supports risk assets, particularly cyclical equities and commodities. |
| Oct 27 2025 | 2025 Q3 | - | including small caps and cyclicals. Gold emerged as a standout asset amid rising government debt and currency debasement concerns, market internals and breadth indicators suggest a rotation toward broader equity participation, reinforcing the portfolios role for real asset protection and diversification. | - | All Season, Inflation, Capital Preservation |
| Jul 18 2025 | 2025 Q2 | - | All-Seasons, commodities, diversification, inflation, risk management | - | The letter emphasizes an all-seasons portfolio framework designed to perform across inflationary, deflationary, risk-on, and risk-off regimes. Management highlights diversification across equities, bonds, commodities, and gold to minimize drawdowns. Tactical tilts are used to adapt to changing macro conditions without abandoning structural balance. |
| Apr 23 2025 | 2025 Q1 | - | - | - | |
| Jan 24 2025 | 2024 Q4 | - | - | - | |
| Oct 23 2024 | 2024 Q3 | - | - | - | |
| Jul 29 2024 | 2024 Q2 | - | - | - | |
| May 9 2024 | 2024 Q1 | - | - | - | |
| Jan 24 2024 | 2023 Q4 | - | - | - | |
| Oct 25 2023 | 2023 Q3 | - | - | - | |
| Jul 28 2023 | 2023 Q2 | - | - | - | |
| Apr 28 2023 | 2023 Q1 | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
CommoditiesBull market may be in early stages with most commodities 46% below nominal peaks and 73% below inflation-adjusted highs. Commodity-to-equity ratio near historic lows suggests capital starvation. Current cycle appears only one-third complete compared to historical precedent. |
Cycles Capital Valuation Equities |
GoldGold returned +65% in dollars in 2025, driven by broadening demand from central banks, professional and retail investors. Central banks now hold 24% of reserves in gold versus 23% in US Treasuries for the first time. Maintained 12% portfolio allocation throughout the year. |
Central Banks Reserves Diversification Demand | |
GrowthEconomic growth is accelerating according to Hedgeye's real GDP projection model, gaining significant momentum in Q1 and continuing through much of Q2 2026. This growth acceleration historically supports risk assets, particularly cyclical equities and commodities. |
Economic Growth GDP Risk Assets Cyclical Acceleration | |
Small CapsSmall caps getting strong start in 2026 supported by easing monetary conditions and constructive fiscal backdrop. Small caps more sensitive to economic cyclicality which is overdue for expansion. Expected to grow at better pace than large caps in 2026 after long period of underperformance. |
Value Growth Cyclical Monetary Policy Fiscal Policy | |
| 2025 Q3 |
Grey Owl Capital |
|
| 2025 Q2 |
AllSeasons |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Elevator Pitches found | ||||||||||
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| ACWI | We use ACWI for the MSCI All-Country World Index. Global equities performed slightly better at +3.3% during the fourth quarter and rose +22.4% for the full year 2025. |
| GLD | GLD (Gold ETF) extended its remarkable run with an 11.5% gain, capping off an extraordinary 63.7% annual return that stands as one of the year's most impressive performances across any major asset class. |
| GSG | We use GSG for the S&P GSCI Commodity Index. Commodities were essentially flat, up +0.4% during the fourth quarter, increased 5.9% for the full year 2025, and are significantly outperforming, up +7.4% year-to-date through January 23, 2026. |
| IWM | We use the ETF IWM to represent the US small capitalization index. Small-capitalization stocks lagged, ending the year up +12.7%. In contrast, small-capitalization equities are significantly outperforming, up +7.6% year-to-date through January 23, 2026. |
| MAGS | We use the ETF MAGS to represent the 'Magnificent 7' stocks. The popular 'Magnificent 7' group of stocks declined roughly -30% from its December 17, 2024 peak to the April 8, 2025 low. As of the close on January 23, 2026, the 'Magnificent 7' group was down -3.6% from its October 29, 2025, high and -0.5% year-to-date. |
| SPY | Over the exact same period, the S&P 500 generated an annualized return of around 10.2%. A dollar invested passively in an S&P 500 ETF became roughly eleven dollars. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, is the most widely owned and actively traded ETF in the world. Its market capitalization today is roughly USD 700 billion—only about 1% of the total market capitalization of the S&P 500 constituents. Yet SPY's typical daily trading volume is USD 30–40 billion, while the combined daily trading volume of the underlying S&P 500 companies is approximately USD 500–700 billion. |
| TLT | We use TLT for 20+ Year Treasury Bond index (i.e. 'long-dated' US Treasury bonds). Long-dated U.S. Treasury bonds declined -1.0% during the fourth quarter and returned +4.3% for the full year 2025. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Sells Data | ||||||
| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| No industry data available | |||
