The curated database of hedge funds that publish investor letters. Research by geography, strategy, and schools of thought.
| # | Fund | Strategy | Style | Geography | AUM | Latest Letter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Hayden Capital returned 6.9% net in Q2 2026 versus 15.2% for the S&P 500, bringing YTD performance to -23.3%. The fund's core thesis centers on earnings growth through reinvestment cycles at attractive incremental ROICs. Manager Fred Liu argues AI disruption is happening slower than markets initially feared, with software incumbents remaining resilient. He expresses concern about hyperscaler capex sustainability, noting the big tech companies will spend close to $800 billion in 2026 with capex now exceeding internal cash flow for the first time. Liu questions whether incremental ROICs will remain attractive as speculative bid in chip markets potentially evaporates. The portfolio remains concentrated in what Liu views as highest-quality franchises, with particular conviction around e-commerce reinvestment cycles at Shopee and Mercado Libre showing early signs of 18-38% ROICs. The fund exited Pinduoduo after a successful 3.5 year hold generating 24% annualized returns as the original thesis played out. Portfolio allocation is 34% Asia, 43% North America, 17% Latin America. Liu believes current setup of companies growing 40%+ yet trading at market multiples plants seeds for future outperformance.
Hayden Capital focuses on earnings growth as the primary driver of long-term returns, investing in high-quality franchises undergoing attractive reinvestment cycles where incremental returns on invested capital can be calculated with reasonable confidence, while the market prices in pessimistic scenarios.
Manager expects current portfolio companies to continue performing well operationally despite near-term market volatility. Largest investments are growing revenues over 40% year-over-year, beginning to exit reinvestment cycles, yet trade at same valuation as broader market. Manager believes this setup typically plants seeds for meaningful outperformance in future years and remains confident ownership stakes will be valued appropriately over long term in line with growing earnings streams.
As of Aug 29, 2026
Fred Liu, CFA, founded Hayden Capital in 2014, bringing extensive experience as a research analyst at New Street Research and J.P. Morgan's Small Cap Equity Fund. He holds a BS in finance and international business from NYU's Stern School of Business and maintains a CFA designation. Liu demonstrates strong alignment with investor interests by investing the majority of his family's liquid net worth in the strategy. He emphasizes a research-intensive approach, conducting over 100 hours of analysis per investment and maintaining a global network primarily in the U.S. and Asia, especially Southeast Asia. His investment philosophy centers on finding companies with sustainable competitive advantages and growth options not yet fully priced by the market. Liu's track record includes generating two 10-bagger investments (Sea Ltd and Amazon) and maintaining a 55% hit rate with a 4.8x slugging ratio since inception.
Hayden Capital employs a value-oriented investment approach that emphasizes intensive research and concentrated positioning. The firm's investment objective is to outperform broader equity markets over a full market cycle while employing minimal to zero leverage. The strategy aims to purchase market-leading businesses at attractive valuations with durable competitive advantages and incentivized management teams. The firm approaches stock purchases as if buying entire businesses outright while retaining management, rejecting the notion that volatility equals risk. Instead, market volatility is viewed as an opportunity, with the ability to invest on longer time horizons being a key competitive advantage. The strategy invests globally, leveraging insights from developed business models in one geography and applying those learnings cross-border. Risk management includes limiting individual position sizes to 15% of the portfolio and maintaining geographic diversification across multiple regions.
Lead Portfolio Manager
Moderate Conviction Bullish
Market Conviction
Manager demonstrates high conviction through detailed ROIC analysis on specific positions (Shopee, Mercado Libre) with explicit calculations and thesis frameworks. Portfolio is concentrated with named, sized holdings and clear catalysts. Manager willing to exit positions (Pinduoduo) when thesis plays out or visibility diminishes, showing disciplined conviction rather than blind holding. Extensive discussion of incremental returns and specific metrics (VIP membership 14M, ROIC 26% to 38%, $2.2BN reinvestment spend) demonstrates deep position-level work. However, portfolio includes 10+ positions across geographies which prevents scoring in the extreme conviction range. The detailed ROIC framework and willingness to size positions based on calculable returns justifies a score in the high-moderate to high conviction range.
Growth Outlook
Market outlook remains very low conviction: Portfolio down 28% as AI fears pressure internet stocks while semiconductors soar. Manager sees speculative AI infrastructure bubble, prefers application layer opportunities. Sea L...
Risk Appetite
Risk appetite posture is low conviction: Portfolio down 28% as AI fears pressure internet stocks while semiconductors soar. Manager sees speculative AI infrastructure bubble, prefers application layer opportunities. Sea L...
Capital Deployment
Manager describes approach as unchanged and continuing to invest, but primary activity was rotation - exiting Pinduoduo and maintaining positions in Shopee and Mercado Libre. No explicit discussion of cash level changes or aggressive deployment. Letter describes watching situations closely and following closely rather than actively scaling. The Pinduoduo exit likely generated cash that was redeployed to existing positions, representing rotation rather than net deployment. Score reflects modest net neutral activity with selective monitoring.
Forward Guidance
Forward guidance signal: Portfolio down 28% as AI fears pressure internet stocks while semiconductors soar. Manager sees speculative AI infrastructure bubble, prefers application layer opportunities. Sea L...
Language Signal
Language is balanced between opportunity and caution. Positive terms include attractive, confidence, meaningful outperformance, paying off, strong results. Cautious language includes tricky, unpredictable, concerns, questions, risk. Manager uses phrases like remains confident and continue to do well but also acknowledges below expectations and lack of visibility. Net slightly positive directional language but with meaningful hedging throughout.
Perceived Risk
Perceived risk level is evaluated as moderate conviction. Portfolio down 28% as AI fears pressure internet stocks while semiconductors soar. Manager sees speculative AI infrastructure bubble, prefers application layer opportunities. Sea L...
Opportunity Density
Manager sees selective opportunities in defined areas, particularly e-commerce reinvestment cycles at Shopee and Mercado Libre. Describes these as attractive with calculable ROICs in the 18-38% range. However, also notes exiting Pinduoduo due to lack of visibility and expresses caution on commoditized AI component manufacturers. Characterizes markets as tricky and fast-moving. Language suggests handful of compelling ideas in specific situations rather than broad opportunity set. Emphasis on selectivity and quality over abundance.
Time Horizon
Manager explicitly focuses on long-term earnings growth as primary return driver, stating over 90% of company value lies in earnings stream 5+ years out. Held Pinduoduo for 3.5 years and describes typical holding periods allowing reinvestment programs to mature over multiple years. Framework emphasizes time working for you through compounding rather than catalyst-driven near-term events. However, does discuss specific milestones like VIP membership inflection points and quarterly metrics, preventing score from reaching permanent capital range. Multi-year thesis orientation with patience for reinvestment cycles to play out justifies score in the high end of multi-year range.
Top Conviction Themes
Key Catalysts
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