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Hurdle Rate — Fund Profile & Investor Letters | Buyside Digest

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Hurdle Rate

Active

LATEST LETTER

Current Quarter LetterQ2 2026• Aug 18, 2026

Hurdle Rate 2026 Q2

View Current Letter PDF Full Letter Analysis →

Performance at a Glance

As of Aug 18, 2026

Quarterly (QTD)-

Year-to-Date (YTD)-16.2%

Annualized Return (CAGR)

+14.7%

Executive Briefing • Q2 2026

Executive Summary

Tristan Waine is concentrating his portfolio from 17 to 8-12 holdings as he returns to full-time employment, purchases a first home, and expects a child. The portfolio declined 14.1% year to date, but this was driven entirely by valuation compression rather than business deterioration—look-through earnings rose 21% while multiples fell from 26.7x to 17.8x. In July, he exited five lower-conviction holdings including IFCA, Autocount, Miroku, Fiducian, and Info-Tech. He added QuickFee earlier based on profitability and dividend intentions. The manager identified several positions with limited shelf-life including Banqup (timeline to end-2028), QuickFee (expected delist), and Getbusy/Reckon (sale incentives by decade-end). His 12 higher-conviction names warrant skewed sizing and include founder-owned software companies (Innoscripta, Macompta, Robot Payment, Avant) and broadly-owned professional services firms (Elixir, MHA, Prime Financial, DSW Capital, Kelly Partners). He favors long-term business cases over short-term flips and plans minimal new idea sourcing going forward.

Core Thesis

Concentrate capital in 8-12 high-conviction, founder-owned or broadly-owned businesses with strong ownership structures and long-term resilience, while reducing activity due to life priorities and letting positions compound over time.

Forward Outlook

Manager plans to dramatically reduce activity and let positions run with minimal new idea sourcing. Timeline set for Banqup until end of 2028 to observe impact of e-invoicing mandates. Expects QuickFee to delist within a few years and potential sales of Getbusy and Reckon businesses by end of decade. Focus is on long-term business cases rather than short-term flips, with preference for founder-owned software and broadly-owned professional services firms.

Current Manager Conviction Gauges

Moderate Conviction Bullish

Market Conviction

68%

CautiousHigh

Moderate (68%)

Manager is concentrating from 17 to 8-12 positions and explicitly identifies 12 higher-conviction names that 'warrant a skew in sizing.' He names specific holdings (Elixir, MHA, Prime Financial, DSW Capital, Kelly Partners, Innoscripta, Macompta, Robot Payment, Avant, Bridge Consulting, Asiro, FSA) and describes what he likes about them (ownership structure, founder-owned, resilience). He also explicitly exits five names due to lack of conviction and identifies several others with limited shelf-life. This is a clear, conviction-driven portfolio construction exercise with named positions and sizing implications. However, the letter lacks specific position sizes, catalysts, or timeframes for most holdings, and the manager acknowledges uncertainty on several names. Scores in the high-moderate to low-high range given concentration and named positions but absence of granular sizing or catalyst detail.

Growth Outlook

10%

BearishBullish

Bearish (10%)

Manager makes no explicit market outlook statements. The letter is entirely focused on portfolio construction and life logistics. The only market-related observation is descriptive: multiples compressed across his holdings. No forward view on markets, cycles, or opportunity set is expressed. Neutral to slightly positive given he remains invested and is not raising cash defensively.

Risk Appetite

25%

DefensiveAggressive

Defensive (25%)

Manager is reducing position count from 17 to 8-12 but this is driven by time constraints, not risk aversion. He remains fully invested with no mention of raising cash or hedging. The concentration move actually increases risk per position. He is selectively trimming lower-conviction names but sizing up higher-conviction ones. Net positioning is constructive but not aggressive—he is optimizing, not deploying or de-risking.

Capital Deployment

48%

De-riskingDeploying

Net Neutral (48%)

Manager added QuickFee earlier in the period, then exited five positions in July (IFCA, Autocount, Miroku, Fiducian, Info-Tech). This is capital rotation—selling some names to concentrate in others—with no indication that cash levels changed materially. He describes reducing activity dramatically and letting positions run, not deploying new capital. No cash percentages provided. Net activity is rotation with a slight bias toward holding rather than deploying. Score near zero reflecting rotation without net deployment or de-risking.

Forward Guidance

28%

CautiousExpansionary

Cautious (28%)

Manager explicitly states he will dramatically reduce activity and is not planning to source new ideas. He describes letting things run if at all possible and favoring long-term holds over short-term flips. Several positions have explicit exit timelines (Banqup by end-2028, QuickFee expected delist, Getbusy/Reckon sales by decade-end). This is a hold-and-monitor posture with no deployment bias. He is in no rush and explicitly stepping back from active management.

Language Signal

35%

BearishBullish

Bearish (35%)

Language is mildly positive when discussing higher-conviction holdings. Manager uses phrases like 'really like the ownership structure,' 'resilient,' 'long-term hold,' and 'warrant a skew in sizing.' However, he also describes multiple positions as having 'limited shelf-life,' 'lack conviction,' and 'struggling as a going concern' (Banqup). The balance tilts slightly positive given the emphasis on long-term appeal of core holdings, but hedging language is present throughout.

Perceived Risk

20%

Low RiskElevated

Low Risk (20%)

Manager acknowledges one position (Banqup) is 'struggling as a going concern' and gives it a timeline to end-2028. He also notes several positions have 'limited shelf-life' and identifies specific risks (regulatory scrutiny for Fiducian, failed catalyst for Autocount). However, these are stock-specific concerns, not macro or systemic risks. No discussion of market risk, valuation risk, or economic headwinds. The letter is focused on portfolio optimization, not risk management. Risk acknowledgment is present but limited to individual holdings and not central to the narrative.

Opportunity Density

30%

ScarceAbundant

Scarce (30%)

Manager explicitly states he does not have time to actively source new ideas and plans to let things run. He describes concentrating into existing higher-conviction names rather than finding new opportunities. The letter contains no discussion of attractive new ideas, screens, or opportunity set. He notes there is a possibility he considers investments outside his competency circle but does not think that will be a problem until he runs out of current ideas. This suggests a sparse opportunity set or at least a lack of bandwidth to pursue it. Score reflects limited opportunity focus and explicit stepping back from idea generation.

Time Horizon

72%

Short-TermLong-Term

Decade+ (72%)

Manager explicitly favors 'long-term business case rather than short-term flip' and describes wanting to hold broadly-owned firms and founder-owned software companies 'for a long time to come.' He uses phrases like 'very long-term hold' and 'let things run if at all possible.' However, he also sets specific timelines for several positions: Banqup until end-2028, QuickFee expected delist within a few years, Getbusy/Reckon sales by end of decade. This is a multi-year horizon (2-5+ years) with some catalyst dependency, but the emphasis is on patience and compounding. No indication of permanent capital structure or decade-plus horizon. Scores in the moderate-high range reflecting multi-year thesis with willingness to hold but not indefinite horizon.

Key Themes & Catalysts (Q2 2026)

Top Conviction Themes

Founder-Owned SoftwareProfessional ServicesValuation Compression

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Performance Data

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