The curated database of hedge funds that publish investor letters. Research by geography, strategy, and schools of thought.
| # | Fund | Strategy | Style | Geography | AUM | Latest Letter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
As of Oct 31, 2025
In their Q3 2025 commentary, Kinsman Oak provides a highly skeptical analysis of the modern market landscape, drawing extensive parallels to the 1999 dot-com bubble. They highlight historical lows in market breadth, where a small handful of AI-linked mega-caps drive indices to record highs while most constituents decline. The letter provides detailed mathematical breakdowns of big tech's $900 billion AI capital expenditures, demonstrating that the returns required to breakeven on this capex are virtually impossible to achieve. Furthermore, they criticize the rise of creative circular financing and off-balance-sheet SPV structures (like Meta's $30 billion deal) that hide financial leverage. Conversely, they view the 'Debasement Trade' in gold as structurally sound due to expanding fiscal deficits and central bank currency printing, advising a cautious stance on equities while waiting for a valuation washout.
The market is split into two working trades: AI speculation and debasement hedges. The AI infrastructure boom is a speculative bubble built on unviable unit economics and hidden leverage (SPVs) that mirrors the 1999 dot-com era, while real value creation has been virtually zero over the last two decades when denominated in gold.
The manager anticipates near-term strength in equity markets through 2026 as capital has already been committed for AI projects. However, they project heightened volatility and potential turbulence starting in 2027 as infrastructure funding begins to slow. They expect the currency debasement trade to remain strong structurally until fiscal restraint is implemented.
High Conviction Bullish
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