The curated database of hedge funds that publish investor letters. Research by geography, strategy, and schools of thought.
| # | Fund | Strategy | Style | Geography | AUM | Latest Letter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Manole Capital's Q2 2026 letter emphasizes the fund's positioning in financial infrastructure businesses that benefit from volatility and uncertainty. The portfolio focuses on exchange operators like ICE and CME that profit from elevated trading activity driven by geopolitical tensions, shifting Fed policy expectations, and inflation concerns. The manager highlights three emerging themes: prediction markets evolving into information networks with ICE's investment in Polymarket validating this infrastructure opportunity; stablecoins moving toward mainstream adoption as complementary payment rails with regulatory clarity improving; and a potential reopening IPO window though valuation discipline remains critical given historical underperformance of richly-priced offerings. The letter discusses an anticipated philosophical shift at the Fed under potential new leadership toward monetarist principles emphasizing balance sheet management over forward guidance. Key risks include persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target, rising long-term Treasury yields, and consumer sentiment at historic lows. The manager maintains focus on infrastructure providers building rails beneath evolving financial ecosystems rather than predicting specific technology winners, with private investments including Stripe and recent liquidity from Klarna's IPO.
Manole Capital focuses on financial infrastructure and 'picks-and-shovels' businesses that benefit from increased market activity regardless of direction, with particular emphasis on exchanges, payment networks, and emerging digital financial infrastructure including stablecoins and prediction markets.
Markets demonstrate remarkable ability to adapt despite persistent uncertainty from geopolitical tensions, shifting monetary policy, and inflation concerns. Manager expects continued focus on financial infrastructure providers that benefit from increased activity regardless of market direction. Potential Fed philosophical shift under new leadership may create environment driven less by cheap money and more by underlying fundamentals. Stablecoins and prediction markets represent evolution rather than revolution in financial services. IPO opportunities emerging but valuation discipline remains critical. Portfolio positioning favors network businesses and infrastructure providers over directional market bets.
As of Jul 2, 2026
Warren Fisher, CFA, CEO and Founder of Manole Capital, brings over two decades of asset management experience, having spent 19 years at Goldman Sachs Asset Management where he specialized in financial and technology service sectors and served as Co-Portfolio Manager for several large and mid-cap growth funds. He graduated with a Bachelor of Science in Accounting from Lehigh University in 1994, later joined Fortress Investments in 2013 to help build Logan Circle's equity franchise, and founded Manole Capital in 2015 to exclusively focus on the FinTech industry. Kurt Winslow serves as COO, overseeing operations, technology, and portfolio analytics, with previous experience managing portfolio construction at Logan Circle Partners and serving as VP at GSAM managing $30 billion in assets.
Manole Capital's investment philosophy centers on long-term business ownership rather than short-term trading, emphasizing the identification of strong, durable franchises with high barriers to entry, competitive moats, market leadership, pricing power, recurring revenues, sustainable business models, strong balance sheets, predictable free cash flow, and skilled management teams. The firm believes in buying great companies at reasonable prices, distinguishing between short-term market fluctuations where equities act as a 'voting machine' driven by sentiment and long-term perspective where markets function as a 'weighing machine' assessing intrinsic worth based on sustained performance and execution.
Lead Portfolio Manager
Moderate Conviction Bullish
Market Conviction
Manager names specific holdings (ICE, CME, Robinhood, Schwab, Visa) and discusses them with clear thesis. ICE described as 'one of our long-term holdings' with detailed commentary on Polymarket investment. Private portfolio includes named positions (Stripe, Klarna, Kraken, Plaid). However, no position sizing disclosed, no concentration metrics provided, and commentary is thematic rather than deeply specific to individual holdings. Language includes some hedging ('may,' 'could,' 'potentially'). The picks-and-shovels philosophy is clearly articulated and consistently applied across multiple themes. Conviction is moderate-to-high based on clear thematic focus and named positions, but lacks the extreme concentration and sizing specificity that would push it above 0.75.
Growth Outlook
Market outlook remains low conviction: Manole Capital benefits from market volatility through concentrated exchange holdings that facilitate risk management during uncertainty. The fund focuses on structural financial i...
Risk Appetite
Risk appetite posture is moderate conviction: Manole Capital benefits from market volatility through concentrated exchange holdings that facilitate risk management during uncertainty. The fund focuses on structural financial i...
Capital Deployment
No explicit cash level changes disclosed. Manager describes portfolio as 'well aligned' for current environment and mentions private investments including recent Klarna liquidity event. Language suggests monitoring and selective positioning rather than aggressive deployment or de-risking. Phrases like 'we remain focused' and 'we continue to believe' indicate steady state. The discussion of IPO opportunities with emphasis on 'patience and valuation discipline' suggests waiting for attractive entry points rather than deploying aggressively. Net neutral to mildly positive deployment activity.
Forward Guidance
Forward guidance signal: Manole Capital benefits from market volatility through concentrated exchange holdings that facilitate risk management during uncertainty. The fund focuses on structural financial i...
Language Signal
Language is balanced between opportunity and risk. Bullish terms include 'benefit,' 'opportunity,' 'evolving,' 'emerging,' 'accelerating,' 'expanding,' and 'resilient.' Bearish/cautious terms include 'uncertainty,' 'volatility,' 'concerns,' 'risks,' 'stubborn inflation,' 'historic lows,' and 'valuation discipline.' Manager uses phrases like 'periods of uncertainty' and 'elevated volatility' frequently. The letter acknowledges multiple headwinds while framing portfolio positioning as benefiting from activity rather than direction. Net language is mildly positive but heavily qualified.
Perceived Risk
Perceived risk level is evaluated as moderate conviction. Manole Capital benefits from market volatility through concentrated exchange holdings that facilitate risk management during uncertainty. The fund focuses on structural financial i...
Opportunity Density
Manager sees opportunities across multiple areas: exchanges benefiting from volatility, prediction markets emerging as infrastructure, stablecoins moving mainstream, potential IPO wave including private holdings. States 'financial services are becoming faster, more digital, and increasingly embedded into everyday experiences.' However, emphasizes selectivity and valuation discipline, particularly regarding IPOs where manager notes historical underperformance of richly-priced offerings. Opportunity set is characterized as selective rather than broad, with emphasis on specific infrastructure themes rather than market-wide opportunities.
Time Horizon
Manager describes ICE as 'one of our long-term holdings' and emphasizes 'long-term trends reshaping financial infrastructure.' Uses language like 'we have discussed for years' regarding investment philosophy. References holding through volatility and notes that 'great companies often become even better investments when purchased with patience.' Private investments in pre-IPO companies (Stripe, Kraken, Plaid) suggest multi-year horizon. However, also discusses quarterly earnings seasons and near-term market dynamics. Overall thesis is multi-year with 3-5 year outlook for infrastructure themes to mature, placing this in the 0.65-0.84 range.
Top Conviction Themes
Key Catalysts
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