| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 21.7% | 16.3% | - |
Minotaur returned 16.3% in Q2 2026, driven primarily by SK hynix and Micron contributing 15-18 percentage points combined. The fund executed significant de-risking in June, halving AI infrastructure exposure from 31% to 15% and reducing volatility from 15% to 13.4%, not due to thesis change but concentration management. July brought sharp memory stock declines of 33-50% despite record quarterly results, driven by hedge fund deleveraging and Korean retail margin unwinding rather than fundamental deterioration. The manager's memory thesis remains intact: AI demand outpaces supply, no meaningful capacity arrives before 2027, and multi-year supply agreements provide structural support. SK hynix trades at 3x 2027 earnings after the selloff. The fund began adding back to Micron and Nvidia in late July, treating the deleveraging as opportunity. Key risks include hyperscaler capex discipline and market demands for visible AI returns. The diversified book built in June enables selective deployment into weakness while maintaining risk discipline.
AI-driven memory demand is structurally outpacing supply in a multi-year cycle supported by capacity constraints and long-term supply agreements, with current valuations failing to reflect extended cycle duration despite record earnings.
Manager expects memory cycle to run longer and stronger than typical cycles due to structural changes in buyer behavior with multi-year supply agreements and capacity constraints lasting through 2028. July selloff viewed as positioning-driven deleveraging rather than fundamental deterioration, creating opportunity to add to high-conviction positions at materially lower valuations. Diversified portfolio structure built in June provides capacity to deploy into weakness while maintaining risk discipline.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29 2026 | 2026 Q2 | 000660 KS, 005930 KS, AMD, AMZN, AVGO, GOOGL, HUT, META, MSFT, MU, NVDA, ORCL, TSM | AI, Asia, Concentration, Deleveraging, Memory, semiconductors, technology |
000660.KS MU HUT |
Minotaur returned 16.3% in Q2 driven by memory stocks, then executed major de-risking in June before July's sharp selloff. Memory names fell 33-50% on record earnings due to deleveraging, not fundamentals. Manager maintains conviction in multi-year AI memory cycle with supply constrained through 2028. SK hynix at 3x 2027 earnings. Adding back to Micron and Nvidia, treating forced selling as opportunity. |
| Apr 6 2026 | 2026 Q1 | 000660 KS, 7211.T, GTLB, INTU, MU, PANW, RHM.DE | AI, cybersecurity, defense, Geopolitical, global, Memory, software, technology |
MU GTLB INTU |
Minotaur fell 7.8% in March as memory, defense, and software positions declined simultaneously despite strong fundamentals. The manager added to memory stocks now trading at 3.5x earnings with supply locked through 2026, initiated cybersecurity positions, and exited weak holdings. Core thesis remains intact with better entry points created. |
| Jan 20 2026 | 2025 Q4 | ADBE, CRM, GOOGL, HUBS, HUT, MSFT, NVDA, TEAM | AI, Automation, Data centers, infrastructure, software, technology |
HUT TEAM |
AI reached a step-change through skills and loops, threatening software business models while creating infrastructure opportunities. Fund cut software exposure including Atlassian due to shifting defensibility, but initiated Hut 8 position on $7B Anthropic data center deal. Maintains AI supercycle conviction through Nvidia and memory positions as compute demand remains strong. |
| Oct 30 2025 | 2025 Q3 | CDR.WA, TTWO | AI, gaming, global, Poland, technology, value |
CDR CDR |
US market strength despite economic weakness creates valuation risk, driving underweight positioning. Offshore opportunities like CD Projekt offer better value through structural transformations. The gaming company's evolution from cyclical developer to steady-state entertainment compounder with dual-track development represents the mispricing opportunities being captured. AI agent deployment enhances research capabilities across portfolio monitoring. |
| Jul 28 2025 | 2025 Q2 | 4519.T, 5253.T, 9992.HK, MNSO, NVDA, RHM.DE, WIZZ.L | AI, defense, global, mispricing, Pharmaceuticals, technology, value | 1896.HK | Minotaur delivered 11.8% quarterly returns through their mispricing-focused global strategy, amplified by proprietary AI research tools. Holdings span diverse opportunities from European defense rearmament to AI inference plays and retail transformation stories. Their unconstrained, 40-60 stock approach targets variant perceptions across all markets, delivering consistent outperformance while managing risk through diversification. |
| Mar 31 2025 | 2025 Q1 | ATI, BMBL, CRS, F, HWM, IPX.AX, MDB, RHM.DE, TSLA, WTC.AX, Z | AI, China, defense, Europe, Shorting, Trump, volatility |
IPX.AX RHM.DE |
Minotaur's March quarter was challenging with volatility wiping out early gains, but the fund's AI-driven approach and strategic positioning for Trump 2.0 themes show promise. Key wins include 40% returns from Rheinmetall defense exposure and successful shorts in WiseTech, Tesla, and Bumble. The fund maintains underweight US, overweight China positioning while using sell-offs to acquire mispriced opportunities. |
| Dec 31 2024 | 2024 Q4 | ACN, AMZN, BTI.AX, MDB, META, MSFT, NVDA | AI, China, emerging markets, global, semiconductors, technology, Valuations | - | Minotaur outperformed in its debut six months by avoiding expensive US markets and finding value in China, which trades at 52% discount to US despite government stimulus paralleling 2009's 62% rally setup. The fund maintains AI exposure across the technology stack while using proprietary AI system Taurient to enhance investment process efficiency. |
| Sep 30 2024 | 2024 Q3 | 4519.T, KTW.L | AI, Distribution, healthcare, Japan, Pharmaceuticals, technology, Uk |
4519.T KTW.L |
Minotaur outperformed in Q3 despite macro volatility by playing major themes through non-obvious names. Key positions include Chugai Pharmaceutical for GLP-1 obesity treatments and Kitwave for UK recovery. Proprietary AI technology Taurient enhances research capabilities. Manager increasingly constructive on undervalued UK markets while maintaining focus on risk mitigation and diversification. |
| Jun 30 2024 | 2024 Q2 | 5253.T, PRY.MI | AI, Energy Transition, Europe, global, Japan, software, technology |
PRY.MI 5253.T |
Technology-driven global fund launched May 2024 using proprietary AI to identify unique opportunities. Avoids expensive US markets, focusing on Europe and Japan. Key holdings include Italian energy infrastructure play Prysmian with 30% upside and Japanese entertainment company COVER Corporation. Themes include energy transition, AI adoption, and creator economy with exceptional portfolio breadth. |
| Mar 31 2025 | 2023 Q1 | BMBL, F, IPX.AX, MDB, RHM.DE, TSLA, WTC.AX, Z | AI, defense, Europe, Onshoring, Shorts, technology, volatility |
IPX.AX RHM.DE |
Minotaur uses AI to combat investment biases while positioning for European defense spending surge and US onshoring trends. Key holdings include Rheinmetall (40% return, 7% portfolio weight) and IperionX (titanium reshoring beneficiary). Successfully shorted WiseTech, Tesla, and Bumble using AI-guided thesis validation. Portfolio positioned underweight US, overweight China, with early European defense exposure despite March quarter volatility. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q2 |
MemoryManager maintains high conviction in memory cycle despite July selloff, arguing AI demand is outrunning supply with no meaningful new capacity before 2027. Multi-year supply agreements with hyperscalers provide structural floor. SK hynix trades at 3x 2027 earnings after falling 38% from recent trim price; manager is adding back to Micron and maintaining full SK hynix position. |
HBM DRAM SK hynix Micron Samsung |
AIAI infrastructure cluster was halved from 31% to 15% of portfolio in June due to concentration risk, not thesis change. Hyperscaler capex remains intact with Microsoft growing Azure 43% and contracted business up 84%. Manager views July deleveraging as positioning-driven rather than fundamental, creating opportunity to add back to Nvidia and memory names. |
Hyperscalers Cloud Nvidia Inference Agentic AI | |
SemiconductorsSemiconductor holdings experienced spillover weakness from memory selloff in July, with AMD down significantly and TSMC showing correlated moves. Manager views this as deleveraging rather than fundamental deterioration. Capacity constraints in memory production support extended cycle thesis beyond typical semiconductor patterns. |
TSMC AMD Foundries Chip Designers | |
Risk AppetiteManager executed significant de-risking in June, reducing portfolio volatility from 15% to 13.4% and beta from 0.88 to 0.78 through broad trimming across AI infrastructure. July deleveraging event driven by hedge funds unwinding record tech leverage and Korean retail margin debt falling 15% from record levels. Diversified book now allows selective re-deployment. |
Volatility Beta Leverage Positioning | |
| 2026 Q1 |
MemoryMemory was the largest detractor with SK hynix and Micron falling despite excellent fundamentals. The market mistook inference efficiency for demand destruction following Google's TurboQuant paper. Supply remains sold out through 2026 with new capacity not arriving until late 2027. |
Memory HBM AI Semiconductors Supply |
DefenseEuropean defense stocks corrected 15-25% despite NATO spending growing 20% in real terms last year. The sector traded like expensive growth in a rising-yield environment. Multi-year rearmament cycle continues with record order backlogs. |
Defense NATO Rearmament Europe Spending | |
AISoftware positions hurt by blunt AI disruption fears. GitLab and MongoDB fell as market applied AI loser label. AI coding agents actually increase need for governance layers and enterprise review systems rather than reducing demand. |
AI Software Coding Governance Enterprise | |
CybersecurityCybersecurity was the strongest contributor as geopolitical stress translated to higher perceived cyber risk. Cloudflare rallied strongly, Palo Alto contributed positively, and CrowdStrike was initiated. |
Cybersecurity Geopolitical Risk Iran Security | |
GoldPrecious metals failed as hedge during Iran-driven geopolitical shock. Gold fell as oil spike pushed inflation expectations and real yields higher, strengthening the dollar and overwhelming safe-haven bid. |
Gold Hedge Inflation Yields Dollar | |
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI infrastructure plays dominated 2025 returns, with 65% of Russell 2000's return coming from AI infrastructure. The manager views this as a concentrated, singular bet on CAPEX spending by five companies building data centers. Questions the sustainability of this trade and notes the market's extreme concentration around AI themes. |
Infrastructure Data Centers CAPEX Concentration |
Small CapsSmall caps continued to underperform large caps in 2025. The Russell 2000's returns were dominated by AI infrastructure plays and speculative unprofitable companies, creating extreme bifurcation between quality stocks and speculative names. The manager sees this as creating opportunities for active management in small caps. |
Russell 2000 Underperformance Quality Active Management | |
QualityQuality businesses today trade at historically cheap multiples due to extreme valuation disparities between winners and losers. The manager highlights the bifurcation in performance between unprofitable stocks and quality stocks, suggesting quality names are attractively valued. |
Valuation Multiples Bifurcation Cheap | |
| 2025 Q3 |
GamingCD Projekt exemplifies quality gaming businesses undergoing structural transformations. The company is transitioning from single-track to dual-track AAA development, breaking the constraint that limited capital deployment at high returns. With exceptional historical margins of 39% and proven unit economics, they're scaling from cyclical hitmaker to steady-state compounder through 2035. |
Gaming Entertainment Poland Development IP |
AIMoving from reactive AI workflows to proactive AI agents for investment research. Dedicated agents for each portfolio company can theoretically increase productivity by 50x, continuously monitoring developments and updating investment theses. This represents the next evolution from fixed recipe workflows to autonomous reasoning agents. |
AI Automation Research Agents Technology | |
| 2025 Q2 |
AIAI is deeply integrated into Minotaur's investment process through their proprietary software Taurient, which helps surface opportunities, amplify research capabilities, and interrogate edge cases faster. The fund views AI as a research multiplier and early-warning system that makes their process harder to replicate. |
Research Software Analytics Automation Edge |
DefenseThe fund invested in Rheinmetall as a misunderstood defense name positioned for Europe's biggest rearmament cycle in decades. They trimmed their outsized European defense allocation after strong gains primarily to manage risk. |
Rearmament Europe Military Geopolitical Spending | |
Creator EconomyCover Corp represents a small-cap creator economy play in Japan that doesn't fit conventional institutional screens. The fund also compares Miniso and Pop Mart as businesses tapping into impulse-driven, emotionally engaging consumerism trends. |
Content Japan Entertainment Digital Engagement | |
GLP1Chugai Pharmaceutical is a large-cap Japanese pharma company where the market is mispricing two exciting GLP-1 opportunities, representing a significant investment thesis for the fund. |
Pharmaceuticals Japan Diabetes Obesity Healthcare | |
| 2025 Q1 |
AIThe fund uses AI through their Taurient system to combat confirmation bias and improve selling decisions. AI helps generate Thesis Validation/Invalidation Reports for every stock position, enabling quick reactions when investment theses are challenged. This AI superpower has guided successful exits from MongoDB and Zillow short positions. |
Artificial Intelligence Taurient Confirmation Bias Thesis Validation |
Defense SpendingEuropean defense spending is rising from under 2% to over 2.2% of GDP, with many NATO governments targeting 2% by 2030. The fund positioned in Rheinmetall to capture the €300-400 billion incremental market growth, with the company expected to capture 20-25% share of Europe's defense renaissance. |
NATO European Defense Military Spending Rheinmetall Artillery | |
OnshoringThe fund is playing the reshoring thematic through IperionX, which benefits from US tariff policies. The US consumes 30% of global titanium but relies wholly on imports after domestic production ceased in 2020. China and Russia control 70% of global supply, creating national security concerns driving US government initiatives to reshore production. |
Reshoring Titanium National Security Supply Chain Tariffs | |
Trade PolicyTrump administration policies are creating market volatility and reshaping global trade dynamics. The fund has positioned for Trump 2.0 through underweight US exposure, overweight China positioning, and investments in companies benefiting from tariff situations like IperionX. |
Trump Tariffs Trade War Geopolitical Policy | |
| 2024 Q4 |
AIMinotaur has developed proprietary AI system Taurient making 10,000-20,000 API calls daily to providers like OpenAI and Anthropic. They maintain exposure across the AI stack from chips to platforms to services. Recent breakthroughs like OpenAI's o3 and DeepSeek's efficiency gains reinforce their view that AI development will continue in parallel tracks of cutting-edge capabilities and architectural innovations. |
Artificial Intelligence Machine Learning OpenAI Anthropic Compute |
ChinaDespite investor wariness, Minotaur sees attractive opportunities in China given record low valuations and government stimulus efforts. They compare the current setup to 2009 when stimulus drove the Shanghai Stock Exchange up 62%. Chinese stocks trade at 52% discount to US markets with de-levered consumers sitting on record liquid deposits. |
Emerging Markets Stimulus Valuations Government Policy MSCI China | |
SemiconductorsThe fund maintains exposure to semiconductor companies like NVIDIA as part of their AI infrastructure thesis. They believe efficiency gains in AI models will drive increased total compute usage rather than reducing demand, following Jevons Paradox where improved efficiency leads to greater overall consumption. |
Chips Computing Infrastructure Hardware NVIDIA | |
Data CentersMajor tech companies are making unprecedented capital investments in AI infrastructure, with Meta increasing 2025 capex guidance to $60-65 billion and Microsoft planning $80 billion in AI infrastructure investment. Project Stargate aims to add another $100 billion in data center investments. |
Infrastructure Capex Cloud Computing Hyperscale | |
| 2024 Q3 |
GLP1The fund plays the GLP-1 obesity treatment trend through Chugai Pharmaceutical's oral GLP-1 drug Orforglipron, which could be a game changer with weight loss results on par with injectables but with daily pill convenience. The market could reach $105 billion by 2030, and Chugai is well-positioned to capture a large share of the oral drug segment. |
Obesity Diabetes Oral Injectable Pharmaceuticals |
AIThe fund has developed proprietary AI technology called Taurient that enhances their investment process through systematic idea generation, document intelligence, and risk analysis. They are exploring ways to analyze thousands of company reports at scale and integrate AI more deeply into fundamental research beyond basic automation. |
Technology Research Automation Analytics Software | |
Food DistributionKitwave represents a play on the UK's economic rebound through food distribution to convenience stores and foodservice providers. The company benefits from industry trends toward delivered wholesale solutions and has a long runway for growth through acquisitions in the fragmented market. |
Wholesale Convenience Acquisition Distribution UK | |
| 2024 Q2 |
Energy TransitionThe fund sees significant opportunities in energy transmission infrastructure, particularly subsea cables that facilitate underground transmission from generation to end users. They highlight the structural demand/supply imbalance in high voltage cables with five years of backlog for key players. The energy transition requires massive grid upgrades in Europe and the US, with utilities targeting 10%+ growth in regulated assets. |
Grid Upgrade Transmission Subsea Infrastructure Spending |
AIAI and Large Language Models are central to Minotaur's investment process, with the fund using proprietary software for idea generation, screening 5,000 news articles daily. They note AI adoption remains early with 26% of CIOs expecting first projects after 2025, and AI expected to account for a third of data center power by 2025. The fund sees AI applications driving efficiency gains across healthcare R&D and operational processes. |
Data Centers Cloud Semiconductors Healthcare Software | |
Creator EconomyThe fund invested in COVER Corporation, a Japanese VTuber management company that has grown from A$1 million to A$300 million in revenue in five years. They see VTubing following a similar trajectory to game streaming, with global expansion potential and diversification beyond streaming into concerts, merchandising, and licensing. Revenue per VTuber has grown from A$400,000 to A$3.5 million. |
Gaming Entertainment Media Japan | |
| 2023 Q1 |
AIThe fund uses AI technology called Taurient to combat confirmation bias and improve selling decisions. AI helps validate or invalidate investment theses through automated reports, enabling quicker reactions when positions no longer have merit. The technology has guided successful exits from MongoDB and Zillow positions. |
Artificial Intelligence Automation Decision Making Technology Analytics |
Defense SpendingEuropean defense spending is rising from under 2% to over 2.2% of GDP, with many NATO governments targeting 2% by 2030. The fund sees a €300-400 billion market growth opportunity through 2030, driven by Ukraine conflict and reduced American military dependence. Rheinmetall is positioned to capture 20-25% of this incremental spending. |
Military NATO Europe Geopolitics Government Spending | |
OnshoringTrump administration tariffs are accelerating reshoring trends, particularly in titanium production. The US consumes 30% of global titanium but relies entirely on imports after domestic production ceased in 2020. IperionX benefits from this trend with $60 million in Department of Defense grants for domestic titanium manufacturing. |
Manufacturing Supply Chain Trade Policy National Security Domestic Production | |
Trade PolicyTrump 2.0 policies are creating market volatility and reshaping global trade dynamics. The administration's tariff announcements are benefiting domestic producers while pressuring import-dependent sectors. Japan faces 24% tariffs on titanium sponge, creating opportunities for US-based competitors. |
Tariffs International Trade Policy Geopolitics Economic Policy |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026 | Fund Letters | Minotaur Global Opportunities Fund | 000660.KS | SK hynix Inc. | Semiconductors | Semiconductors | Bull | - | AI infrastructure, Cyclical, Deleveraging Opportunity, DRAM, HBM, memory semiconductors, Multi-year Contracts, South Korea, supply constraints, Take-or-pay Agreements | Login |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Fund Letters | Minotaur Global Opportunities Fund | MU | Micron Technology Inc. | Semiconductors | Semiconductors | Bull | NASDAQ | AI infrastructure, Contracted Revenue, customer deposits, Cyclical, DRAM, HBM, memory semiconductors, supply constraints, Take-or-pay Agreements, US | Login |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Fund Letters | Minotaur Global Opportunities Fund | HUT | Hut 8 Mining Corp. | Capital Markets | Financial Services | Neutral | NASDAQ | Bitcoin mining, Bull-case Valuation, cryptocurrency, data centers, Digital Assets, exit, profit-taking | Login |
| Apr 6, 2026 | Fund Letters | Minotaur Global Opportunities Fund | MU | Micron Technology Inc. | Semiconductors | Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment | Bull | NASDAQ | AI, HBM, Memory, semiconductors, supply constraints, technology, valuation | Login |
| Apr 6, 2026 | Fund Letters | Minotaur Global Opportunities Fund | GTLB | GitLab Inc. | Software - Infrastructure | Software | Bull | NASDAQ | AI, Coding Agents, Devops, enterprise, Governance, Software, valuation | Login |
| Apr 6, 2026 | Fund Letters | Minotaur Global Opportunities Fund | INTU | Intuit Inc. | Software - Application | Software | Bull | NASDAQ | Accountants, AI, network effects, platform, SMB, Software | Login |
| Jan 20, 2026 | Fund Letters | Armina Rosenberg | HUT | Hut 8 Corp. | Information Technology | Data Centers & Cloud Infrastructure | Bull | NASDAQ | AI, cashflow, Contracts, datacenters, infrastructure | Login |
| Jan 20, 2026 | Fund Letters | Armina Rosenberg | TEAM | Atlassian Corporation | Information Technology | Application Software | Bear | NASDAQ | Agents, Apis, Defensibility, disruption, Monetisation, Orchestration, Pricingpower, Workflows | Login |
| Oct 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Armina Rosenberg | CDR | PD CD Projekt SA | Energy | Interactive Home Entertainment | Bull | NYSE | compounding, Ip, Margins, Reinvestment, Scalability, Unreal engine, Video games | Login |
| Oct 30, 2025 | Fund Letters | Armina Rosenberg | CDR | PD CD Projekt SA | Energy | Interactive Home Entertainment | Bull | NYSE | compounding, Ip, Margins, Reinvestment, Scalability, Unreal engine, Video games | Login |
| Mar 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Minotaur Global Opportunities Fund | IPX.AX | IperionX | Materials | Specialty Chemicals | Bull | ASX | Aerospace, Defense, manufacturing, materials, Reshoring, small-cap, tariffs, technology, Titanium, US | Login |
| Mar 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Minotaur Global Opportunities Fund | RHM.DE | Rheinmetall | Industrials | Aerospace & Defense | Bull | XETRA | Aerospace, Ammunition, backlog, cash flow, Defense, Europe, Government, manufacturing, Military, Rearmament | Login |
| Mar 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Minotaur Global Opportunities Fund | IPX.AX | IperionX | Materials | Specialty Chemicals | Bull | ASX | Aerospace, Defense, manufacturing, materials, Reshoring, small-cap, tariffs, technology, Titanium, US | Login |
| Mar 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Minotaur Global Opportunities Fund | RHM.DE | Rheinmetall | Industrials | Aerospace & Defense | Bull | XETRA | Ammunition, backlog, cash generation, Defense, European, geopolitical, manufacturing, Margins, Military, vertical integration | Login |
| Sep 1, 2024 | Fund Letters | Minotaur Global Opportunities Fund | 4519.T | Chugai Pharmaceutical | Health Care | Pharmaceuticals | Bull | Tokyo Stock Exchange | Biotech, Catalyst, Diabetes, drug pipeline, GLP-1, Japan, Neuromyelitis Optica, Obesity, Oral Formulation, pharmaceuticals, Roche Partnership, Thyroid Eye Disease, Value | Login |
| Sep 1, 2024 | Fund Letters | Minotaur Global Opportunities Fund | KTW.L | Kitwave Group | Consumer Staples | Food Distributors | Bull | London Stock Exchange | consumer staples, convenience stores, defensive, Delivered Wholesale, economic recovery, food distribution, Foodservice, Independent Retailers, M&A, Roll-up Strategy, UK, Value | Login |
| Jun 30, 2024 | Fund Letters | Minotaur Global Opportunities Fund | PRY.MI | Prysmian S.p.A. | Industrials | Electrical Equipment | Bull | Borsa Italiana | barriers to entry, electrical equipment, Electrification, energy transition, Europe, Grid modernization, Hvdc, infrastructure, oligopoly, renewable energy, Subsea Cables, utilities | Login |
| Jun 30, 2024 | Fund Letters | Minotaur Global Opportunities Fund | 5253.T | COVER Corporation | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | Tokyo Stock Exchange | Content Creation, Digital Entertainment, global expansion, growth, Interactive Media, Japan, merchandising, Streaming, talent management, technology, Virtual YouTubers, VTubers | Login |
| - | Fund Letters | Minotaur Global Opportunities Fund | 1896.HK | Miniso Group Holding Limited | Consumer Discretionary | Specialty Retail | Bull | Hong Kong Stock Exchange | brand partnerships, capital-light model, China, Consumer Discretionary, global expansion, International Growth, IP-driven Products, Specialty retail, turnaround, Value | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| 000660.KS | SK hynix's June quarter, reported 29 July, was an all-time high, surpassing the record set the quarter before: revenue of ₩79.3 trillion, up 257% on a year ago, and operating profit of ₩60.5 trillion at a 76% operating margin. Consensus wanted more, and the stock fell 9.6% on the day. SK hynix has still lost more than half its value from its 25 June peak. SK hynix's disclosed version, five-year agreements with deposits and purchase commitments but no published floor pricing, is a thinner and weaker form of the same structure. SK hynix raised its 2026 capex by half or more, guided DRAM shipments up 10% quarter-on-quarter into September, and printed an 83% gross margin against the sub-78% level that would concern us. We trimmed SK hynix in late May. At the 29 July close SK hynix trades 38% below the price at which we last trimmed it. SK hynix trades at roughly 3x 2027 consensus earnings on its Seoul listing. We kept our highest-conviction memory position at full size. |
| MU | SK hynix and Micron contributed roughly 15–18ppts between them. At Micron the floor is contractual and documented, roughly $100 billion of contracted revenue at minimum prices under take-or-pay agreements, with some $22 billion of customer deposits and commitments (around $18 billion of it cash) behind it. Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra and Samsung have both said so on the record. We cut Micron and the broader AI-infrastructure cluster hard in June for concentration reasons, not because the thesis changed. Micron 31% below our last June sale. We have begun adding back, buying Micron and Nvidia in the second half of July. |
| 005930.KS | Samsung's quarter, confirmed on 30 July in line with its earlier guidance, was also a record, with operating profit up roughly nineteen-fold on a year ago. It beat expectations, yet the shares had already fallen on the guidance day earlier in the month. Samsung about 45% below its own. Samsung expects that gap to narrow materially next year; we think it can reverse when HBM4 repricing lands in 2027. Samsung went further on this week's results call: unmet demand is rolling into next year, it expects the memory shortage in 2027 to be more severe than this year's with tightness persisting into 2028, and since a new fab takes more than three and a half years to reach production, it sees a significant increase in industry supply before 2028 as unlikely. It also said frontier AI labs, unable to secure cloud capacity, have begun sharing demand forecasts and requesting long-term agreements with Samsung directly, driven by agentic AI token consumption spilling into general-purpose servers. |
| HUT | Hut 8, exited in June once it passed our bull-case valuation, added around 4ppts more (local currency estimates before fees and FX movements). |
| NVDA | The memory names have fallen by a third to a half during July while Nvidia and Broadcom are down only a few per cent. We have begun adding back, buying Micron and Nvidia in the second half of July. Those purchases are underwater as we write. |
| AVGO | The memory names have fallen by a third to a half during July while Nvidia and Broadcom are down only a few per cent. |
| AMD | The weakness in AMD and TSMC looks like spillover from memory rather than bad news of their own. |
| TSM | The weakness in AMD and TSMC looks like spillover from memory rather than bad news of their own. |
| MSFT | Consensus estimates for five of the biggest AI spenders (Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Oracle) have them on track to spend about $1.58 of additional capex for every additional dollar of operating cash flow between 2025 and 2027, and their combined free cash flow goes from +$174 billion last year to roughly zero this year on those same estimates. Microsoft kept its investment plans unchanged, grew Azure 43% in the June quarter as its annual revenue passed US$100 billion, with contracted future business up 84% (25% excluding OpenAI), and rose about 8% in late trading. |
| GOOGL | Consensus estimates for five of the biggest AI spenders (Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Oracle) have them on track to spend about $1.58 of additional capex for every additional dollar of operating cash flow between 2025 and 2027. |
| AMZN | Consensus estimates for five of the biggest AI spenders (Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Oracle) have them on track to spend about $1.58 of additional capex for every additional dollar of operating cash flow between 2025 and 2027. |
| META | Consensus estimates for five of the biggest AI spenders (Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Oracle) have them on track to spend about $1.58 of additional capex for every additional dollar of operating cash flow between 2025 and 2027. Meta grew its revenue 28% but spent just as hard, its free cash flow fell 91%, and without a separately visible AI revenue stream against the spend, it fell. |
| ORCL | Consensus estimates for five of the biggest AI spenders (Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Oracle) have them on track to spend about $1.58 of additional capex for every additional dollar of operating cash flow between 2025 and 2027. |
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