Investor Summary
Fund Strategy
FUND PERFORMANCE AS OF 31st December 2025
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
| 2024 |
|---|
| 23.0% |
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
| 2024 |
|---|
| 23.0% |
Moon Capital Management's Q4 2025 letter emphasizes the disconnect between alarming headlines and market performance, as the S&P 500 delivered positive returns despite geopolitical tensions, trade wars, and recession fears. The manager argues that earnings growth of approximately 13% drove market appreciation, reinforcing that fundamentals matter more than narratives over time. The firm recently initiated a position in Molina Healthcare at $160 per share, down from $300 six months prior, viewing it as a mispriced compounder experiencing transitory margin pressure. Molina serves 5.6 million Medicaid members and continues generating profits despite industry-wide losses, with medical loss ratios running 250 basis points better than peers. The manager sees 2-3x upside potential as Medicaid rate resets normalize margins through contractual mechanisms requiring actuarial soundness. The investment thesis reflects the firm's philosophy of focusing on business fundamentals during periods of uncertainty, when patient capital allocation typically creates the most wealth.
Focus on business fundamentals over market narratives, as earnings remain the primary driver of stock prices over time, with patient capital allocation during periods of uncertainty creating long-term wealth.
The manager expects Medicaid margins to normalize over time due to contractual rate reset mechanisms, with Molina positioned to benefit from its operational outperformance. Long-term earnings power is substantial, with the company potentially generating over $30 in normalized EPS at target margins.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15 2026 | 2025 Q4 | AAPL, MOH, NVDA | Compounding, fundamentals, healthcare, Managed Care, Margins, Medicaid, value | MOH | Molina Healthcare represents a mispriced compounder experiencing transitory margin pressure in the Medicaid industry. The company serves 5.6 million members with Medicaid representing 75% of premium revenue. Despite industry-wide losses, Molina continues generating profit with MLR running 250 basis points better than industry average. |
| Oct 10 2025 | 2025 Q3 | - | AI, Bubble, fundamentals, Speculation, valuation | - | The letter warns of speculative excesses in AI comparable to the late-1990s tech bubble, citing massive AI capex by hyperscalers and venture firms. It advocates discipline in value investing, focusing on fundamentals amid hype cycles. |
| Apr 7 2025 | 2025 Q1 | - | - | - | |
| Jan 8 2025 | 2024 Q4 | CVS, GS, KKR | - | - | |
| Jul 12 2024 | 2024 Q2 | NTB | - | - | |
| Apr 26 2024 | 2024 Q1 | BTI | - | - | |
| Jan 26 2024 | 2023 Q4 | GRBK, MBIN | - | - | |
| Jul 19 2023 | 2023 Q2 | CNQ, FAF, FHN, MLNK | - | - | |
| Dec 1 2023 | 2022 Q4 | ABBV, CI, DVA, GRBK, LGIH, MCK | - | - | |
| Jul 10 2022 | 2022 Q3 | ALLY, SOBKY, SYF | - | - | |
| Jun 7 2022 | 2022 Q2 | META | - | - | |
| Jul 4 2022 | 2022 Q1 | 0A53LN, APPS, EPAM, FFX GR | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
Managed CareUnitedHealth and Elevance faced multi-year fundamental pain from rising healthcare utilization and volatile medical costs. The managed care industry is under-earning across most business lines due to repricing challenges and regulatory constraints. Policy risk has increased with renewed scrutiny of industry business practices including prior authorizations and pharmacy benefit management. |
Healthcare Insurance Medicaid Medicare Utilization |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
Bubble |
||
ValuationAI-related companies continue to command premium valuations while other sectors remain reasonably priced. This valuation divide continues to guide investment activity, with the fund remaining wary of companies trading at exceedingly high valuations that imply exceptional multi-year earnings growth. |
Premium Divide Discipline Stretched Reasonable |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2026 | Fund Letters | Garrett Arms | MOH | Molina Healthcare, Inc. | Health Care | Managed Health Care | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | buybacks, managed care, margin normalization, Medicaid, Rate Resets | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| AAPL | Apple Inc. represents 1.6% of company owned with cost basis of $6,255 million and market value of $61,962 million, providing $280 million in 2025 dividends. |
| MOH | We recently initiated a position in Molina Healthcare (MOH), which we believe is a mispriced compounder experiencing transitory margin pressure. The stock traded as high as $300 per share only six months ago; we purchased our shares at approximately $160 in late December. Molina provides managed healthcare services primarily to low-income families and individuals via Medicaid, Medicare and the various state marketplaces established by the 2010 Affordable Care Act (Obamacare). The company is an example of a situation in which the stock price decline has been vastly exacerbated by negative political news—and mostly disconnected from the company's actual business fundamentals. In our view, the market's reaction extrapolates short-term pressures indefinitely and underappreciates both the structural dynamics of Medicaid rate resets and Molina's long track record of operational outperformance versus peers. We see a credible path to 2–3x upside over the next several years as margins normalize and earnings power becomes evident. |
| NVDA | AI bellwether NVIDIA's very strong set of earnings in late November helped the AI theme re-assert its dominance when investors breathed a sigh of relief following the results. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Sells Data | ||||||
| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| No industry data available | |||