| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
Ninepoint Partners views 2026 as a year of transition where central banks face a critical decision on rate cuts amid a tug-of-war between weakening labor markets and persistent inflation. The firm expects U.S. economic activity to rebound in the first half of 2026 driven by fiscal stimulus, while Canadian conditions remain subdued. This environment creates compelling opportunities across multiple themes. Natural gas has evolved from a bridge fuel to essential infrastructure for massive electricity demand growth, with U.S. LNG capacity expanding and data center power needs driving 20% demand growth in Texas alone. AI remains the strongest market tailwind, still in early adoption stages with transformative potential across industries. Gold continues its strategic asset status with central bank demand supporting prices above $4,000/oz, while crypto reaches institutional maturity through regulatory clarity and tokenization acceleration. The firm sees attractive prospects in high-quality fixed income for portfolio anchoring, Canadian energy producers with exceptional inventory depth, and global infrastructure linked to long-term electrification trends. Active management remains critical for navigating this complex but opportunity-rich landscape.
2026 presents a complex but opportunity-rich environment where central bank policy uncertainty creates a tug-of-war between weakening labor markets and elevated inflation, while structural themes including AI-driven electrification, natural gas demand growth, gold's strategic asset status, and crypto's institutional maturation offer compelling investment opportunities across multiple asset classes.
The outlook for 2026 is shaped by a tug-of-war between weakening labour markets and still-elevated inflation. U.S. activity is expected to pick up supported by fiscal spending, while conditions in Canada remain more subdued. This environment is creating opportunities in high-quality fixed income, natural gas, gold and critical minerals, global infrastructure linked to long-term electrification, and a crypto ecosystem that is steadily maturing.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18 2026 | 2025 Q4 | COIN, FIGR, SHOP.TO | AI, crypto, Electrification, energy, fixed income, gold, infrastructure, Natural Gas | - | Natural gas has transitioned from a bridge fuel to the fuel to satisfy massive increases in power demand. U.S. export capacity is projected to increase by 2 bcf/d in 2026, while LNG Canada is expected to ramp up to full capacity. The EIA estimates U.S. electricity demand will grow by 2.2% in both 2025 and 2026, with ERCOT demand expected to grow by 20% from 2024 levels. AI remains the strongest tailwind for global equities, driving immense investment in data centers and providing an offset to economic weakness from trade uncertainty. The technology is still in early stages of adoption and should create new investment opportunities across healthcare and consumer applications. AI agents require crypto rails as the only internet-native financial infrastructure through which they can operate autonomously. Gold continued its upward ascent in 2025, starting at approximately $2,640/oz and peaking at $4,356/oz in October before settling into the $4,000/oz range. This momentum was fueled by continuing central bank demand and increased interest from Western investors embracing gold as a strategic asset. Gold equities finally started to work in 2025 and are expected to continue playing catch-up in this commodity-led rally. 2025 was crypto's strongest year yet due to regulatory progress and institutional adoption. The tokenization of real-world assets accelerated, stablecoins gained legal clarity, and prediction markets emerged as powerful pricing engines. Crypto stands on the edge of its most transformative chapter where digital assets, traditional finance, and AI begin to operate as one interconnected system. Global infrastructure is supported by structural tailwinds from electrification and fiscal spending on large-scale construction projects. Electricity demand is expected to accelerate through 2035, led by power-intensive AI-focused data centers. The IEA expects global electricity demand to increase by 3% per year to 2035, equivalent to adding Japan's current total demand annually. The metals and mining sector has become a strategic priority in a complex geopolitical landscape, with governments pivoting policies to ensure access to critical minerals. Technology is driving strong demand from AI-focused data centers, battery chemistry advances, and electrical grid upgrades. Canada is well positioned as a Tier-1 mining jurisdiction and leading metal producer. The electrification of the global economy has been the most important structural tailwind for infrastructure. Rising electricity demand is a global trend, with the IEA expecting growth across all major regions led by emerging economies. Meeting this demand requires ongoing investment across power generation, electricity transmission and distribution. |
| Jun 26 2025 | 2025 Q2 | - | energy, inflation, infrastructure, Macro, volatility | - | Macro: The midyear outlook describes a global environment shaped by policy uncertainty, trade conflicts, and shifts in capital flows. Rising volatility, weakening Canadian domestic demand, and diverging monetary policies highlight a fragile macro backdrop. Infrastructure: Electrification, onshoring, and massive data-center-driven power demand underpin long-term structural growth. Infrastructure assets provide income durability, inflation resilience, and defensive characteristics through balanced exposure across utilities, energy, and industrials. Energy: Near-term oil sentiment is cautious due to swelling inventories, softer demand, and OPEC+ uncertainty, while natural gas remains a bright spot driven by accelerating LNG demand and expanding North American export capacity. |
| Dec 18 2024 | 2024 Q4 | - | energy, geopolitics, inflation, infrastructure, Macro | - | Macro: The letter frames 2025 as a year driven by monetary policy divergence, with Canada easing while the U.S. holds rates, resulting in FX pressure, equity volatility, and a bond-friendly environment in Canada. Inflation risks from tariffs, fiscal expansion, and geopolitical uncertainty remain key macro drivers. Energy: The report highlights underinvestment, declining U.S. shale growth, normalization of OPEC spare capacity, and rising LNG demand as major tailwinds. Geopolitical risks (Iran sanctions, Ukraine conflict) and Chinas stimulus-led demand recovery support a constructive outlook for oil and gas. Infrastructure: Electrification, data center power demand, onshoring, and multi-decade energy transition spending drive long-term growth. Lower rates and policy support underpin strong cash-generating infrastructure assets across utilities, pipelines, and industrial networks. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
Critical MineralsThe portfolio includes exposure to critical minerals through Ramaco Resources, which produces metallurgical coal and is developing a rare earth elements deposit aimed at strengthening domestic supply chains for defense, batteries, and advanced technologies. However, the rare earths narrative faced increasing investor scrutiny during the quarter. |
Rare Earths Supply Chains Defense Battery Metals Domestic Production | |
CryptoFund focuses exclusively on Bitcoin accumulation through disciplined cycle-aware positioning. Manager shifted to defensive posture in Q3 anticipating correction, ending Q4 with two-thirds Bitcoin and one-third cash. Going forward, fund will hold only Bitcoin based on data showing altcoins have terrible odds with only 1-in-70 beating Bitcoin historically. |
Bitcoin Altcoins Cycles Accumulation Volatility | |
Energy TransitionThe portfolio maintains significant exposure to electrification themes through companies like Bloom Energy, which provides clean, reliable power solutions for AI data centers. The energy transition represents a structural opportunity as companies race to build power infrastructure to support growing electricity demands from AI workloads. |
Electrification Clean Energy Power Generation Fuel Cells Grid Infrastructure | |
GoldGold returned +65% in dollars in 2025, driven by broadening demand from central banks, professional and retail investors. Central banks now hold 24% of reserves in gold versus 23% in US Treasuries for the first time. Maintained 12% portfolio allocation throughout the year. |
Central Banks Reserves Diversification Demand | |
InfrastructureDigital 9 Infrastructure holds telecom infrastructure assets including Arqiva stake. Despite poor 2025 performance, potential capital returns and asset sales could unlock value. Infrastructure assets provide defensive characteristics. |
Telecom Infrastructure Digital Infrastructure | |
Natural GasNorth American gas showed strength on cold weather despite bearish sentiment. Production growth concentrated in Permian Basin while other shales declined. Supply growth expected to plateau as Permian oil production slows, setting stage for higher prices as LNG demand expands. |
Shale Permian LNG Weather | |
| 2025 Q2 |
EnergyBHE operates regulated utilities serving 5.4 million customers and natural gas pipelines. The business faces significant investment needs driven by AI computing demand and wildfire risk mitigation, particularly in the Western U.S. |
Regulated Utilities Natural Gas Renewable Energy Grid Infrastructure |
InfrastructureDigital 9 Infrastructure holds telecom infrastructure assets including Arqiva stake. Despite poor 2025 performance, potential capital returns and asset sales could unlock value. Infrastructure assets provide defensive characteristics. |
Telecom Infrastructure Digital Infrastructure | |
| 2024 Q4 |
EnergyBHE operates regulated utilities serving 5.4 million customers and natural gas pipelines. The business faces significant investment needs driven by AI computing demand and wildfire risk mitigation, particularly in the Western U.S. |
Regulated Utilities Natural Gas Renewable Energy Grid Infrastructure |
InfrastructureDigital 9 Infrastructure holds telecom infrastructure assets including Arqiva stake. Despite poor 2025 performance, potential capital returns and asset sales could unlock value. Infrastructure assets provide defensive characteristics. |
Telecom Infrastructure Digital Infrastructure |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Elevator Pitches found | ||||||||||
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| COIN | Coinbase (a new position) experienced extended volatility as crypto currency prices softened into December. We continued to build exposure to our financial deregulation and disintermediation of financial services theme through the purchase of Coinbase, to gain exposure to the regulated infrastructure of cryptocurrencies - particularly stablecoins - following the passage of the GENIUS Act by Congress. |
| SHOP.TO | Non dividend paying technology names Shopify and Celestica had also meaningful contribution to the index returns for the year, detracting our relative outcome. |
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