| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 15.6% | -12.6% | -4.3% |
Pershing Square Holdings delivered a -12.6% NAV return in the first half of 2026 versus +10.2% for the S&P 500, as market gains were concentrated in semiconductors and tech hardware while 90% of S&P companies contributed less than 2% of index returns. The manager used this dislocation to establish six new investments at attractive valuations: Visa, Mastercard, Netflix, S&P Global, Intercontinental Exchange, and Alcon. The portfolio is positioned with companies expected to grow EPS at 15%+ annually over the next 3-5 years, with half achieving 20%+ growth, while trading at discounted multiples. Key developments include transforming Howard Hughes Holdings into an insurance-focused holding company through the Vantage acquisition, with plans to deploy $2.5-3 billion of excess real estate cash flows into insurance operations. The manager believes temporary valuation dislocations will reverse as stock prices catch up to intrinsic values driven by continued strong business performance. Since inception in 2004, the strategy has generated a 15.6% annualized return versus 11.0% for the S&P 500.
Pershing Square invests in a concentrated portfolio of 8-12 high-quality, large-cap businesses with predictable cash flows, limited downside, and strong competitive positions that are available at prices below intrinsic value, holding them for the long term to benefit from compounding earnings growth.
The manager expects each portfolio company to grow EPS at 15% or more annually over the next 3-5 years, with about half achieving 20%+ growth. The portfolio is positioned to benefit from high rates of sustainable earnings growth that will drive long-term returns with minimal portfolio turnover. The manager believes current market dislocation has created exceptional opportunities to acquire high-quality businesses at attractive valuations, and that temporary periods of negative mark-to-market performance will be followed by future periods of excess returns as stock prices revert to intrinsic values. The manager intends to begin an expanded marketing program for PSH to broaden the investor base and narrow the discount to NAV.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 13 2026 | 2026 Q2 | ALC, AMZN, BN, FMCC, FNMA, HHH, ICE, MA, META, MSFT, NFLX, QSR, SPGI, UBER, V | concentrated, consumer, financials, large cap, Long-only, technology, value | - | Pershing Square delivered -12.6% in H1 2026 as market gains concentrated in AI infrastructure sectors, but used the dislocation to acquire six new high-quality businesses at attractive valuations. The portfolio is positioned with companies expected to grow earnings 15-20%+ annually while trading at discounted multiples. The manager transformed Howard Hughes into an insurance-focused holding company and expects temporary valuation dislocations to reverse as fundamentals drive stock prices back to intrinsic values. |
| Feb 11 2026 | 2025 Q4 | AMZN, BN, CMG, FMCC, FNMA, GOOG, HHH, HLT, HTZ, META, NKE, QSR, UBER, UMG.AS | AI, Concentration, growth, megacaps, Performance, Quality, technology, valuation |
BN UBER AMZN GOOG META FNMA HTZ QSR HHH CMG |
Pershing Square delivered 20.9% net returns in 2025 through concentrated positions in AI-beneficiary megacaps including Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta. Strong performance from GSE privatization theme with Fannie Mae up 227%. Portfolio positioned for continued AI infrastructure growth, autonomous vehicle adoption, and policy catalysts. Opportunistic capital deployment during market volatility demonstrates disciplined approach to high-conviction investing. |
| Aug 20 2025 | 2025 Q2 | AMZN, BN.TO, CMG, FMCC, FNMA, GOOGL, HHH, HLT, HTZ, NKE, QSR, UBER, UMG.AS | AI, E-Commerce, large cap, Music, technology, Travel, value | - | Pershing Square delivered strong 15.5% NAV returns in H1 2025 versus 6.2% for S&P 500, benefiting from high-quality portfolio companies insulated from macro volatility. Key contributors included Uber, Fannie Mae, and UMG, while new Amazon and Hertz positions added value. Manager expresses cautious optimism on geopolitical resolution and Fed easing but warns of elevated market speculation requiring careful stock selection. |
| Feb 11 2025 | 2024 Q4 | BN, CMG, CP.TO, FMCC, FNMA, GOOG, HHH, HLT, NKE, QSR, UBER, UMG.AS | activism, Alternative Assets, Concentration, consumer, Hospitality, Music, technology, Transportation | - | Pershing Square's concentrated portfolio of quality businesses delivered solid 10.2% returns despite S&P 500 concentration headwinds. Alphabet's AI leadership, Chipotle's traffic growth, and Brookfield's asset management scale drove performance while Nike undergoes turnaround. Extreme market concentration creates stock-picking opportunities as average companies trade at reasonable valuations. New investments and strategic initiatives position the fund for continued long-term outperformance. |
| Sep 30 2024 | 2024 Q3 | - | Holdings, Performance, portfolio | - | Pershing Square Holdings delivered 2.8% quarterly and 6.3% year-to-date returns through Q3 2024. The concentrated portfolio holds 13 long positions with 117% net exposure, primarily in large-cap stocks across consumer, financial, hospitality, technology, media, and transportation sectors. No investment commentary or outlook provided in this performance update. |
| Jul 1 2024 | 2024 Q2 | - | - | - | Pershing Square Holdings reported -1.5% net performance for Q2 2024 but maintained 5.7% year-to-date gains. The concentrated portfolio holds 12 long positions with 117% net exposure, primarily in large-cap securities across multiple sectors. Assets under management total $15.1 billion with no specific holdings or investment commentary disclosed in this quarterly update. |
| Apr 15 2024 | 2024 Q1 | - | Concentration, large cap, portfolio | - | Pershing Square Holdings delivered 6.8% net returns in Q1 2024 with a concentrated 10-position portfolio focused on large-cap investments across financials, restaurants, media, technology and transportation sectors. The fund maintains 103% net long exposure with $15.2 billion in assets under management. |
| Mar 22 2024 | 2023 Q4 | CMG, CP.TO, FMCC, FNMA, GOOG, HHH, HLT, LOW, QSR, UMG.AS | Concentration, Engagement, Long Term, Quality, value | - | Pershing Square's concentrated portfolio of high-quality businesses delivered 26.7% returns in 2023 despite geopolitical uncertainty. The permanent capital structure enables opportunistic investing and engaged ownership across 8-12 core holdings. Strong operational progress at portfolio companies, combined with excellent management teams and the firm's hedging capabilities, positions the strategy well for continued long-term value creation. |
| Sep 30 2023 | 2023 Q3 | - | Holdings, Performance, portfolio | - | Pershing Square Holdings reported -1.2% net performance in September but maintained strong 11.7% year-to-date returns through Q3 2023. The concentrated portfolio holds 11 long positions with 115% net exposure, focused primarily on large-cap investments across financials, technology, media, and other sectors. Total AUM stands at $13.1 billion. |
| Jun 30 2023 | 2023 Q2 | - | - | - | Pershing Square Holdings transparency report shows 10% YTD returns trailing S&P 500's 16.89%. Fund maintains $10.7B NAV with high liquidity profile and minimal short exposure. Document provides administrative data only with no investment commentary or positioning insights. |
| Mar 31 2023 | 2023 Q1 | - | - | - | Pershing Square Holdings quarterly update showing 3.7% YTD net returns through March 2023. Portfolio maintains 10 concentrated long positions with 120% net exposure, primarily in large-cap stocks across financials, restaurants, hospitality and other sectors. Document provides only performance metrics and portfolio composition data without investment commentary or forward guidance. |
| Mar 28 2023 | 2022 Q4 | CMG, CP, FMCC, FNMA, HHC, HLT, LOW, NFLX, QSR, SVB, TWTR, UMG AV | - | - | |
| Feb 11 2022 | 2022 Q3 | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q2 |
AIThe manager discusses AI as a major market driver in 2026, noting that semiconductors and tech hardware sectors contributed 85% of S&P 500 gains despite representing only 22% of market cap. The manager views AI as creating opportunities in their portfolio companies, particularly Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon, where AI is driving engagement, monetization, and accelerating cloud growth. The manager also addresses investor concerns about AI disruption to businesses like Netflix content creation and S&P Global's data offerings, arguing these concerns are overblown. |
Cloud Data Centers Semiconductor Cycle Enterprise Software |
PaymentsThe manager initiated positions in Visa and Mastercard, describing them as among the highest-quality businesses in the world with natural inflation protection and long growth runways. The manager views concerns about stablecoin disruption and agentic commerce as misplaced, arguing that cards offer advantages stablecoins cannot replicate and that agents will adopt existing payment preferences. The manager believes regulatory proposals have stalled and would have minimal impact even if enacted. |
FinTech Merchant Acquiring Crypto | |
StreamingThe manager acquired a position in Netflix after its share price fell 50% from June 2025 highs, viewing engagement concerns and AI-generated content risks as overblown. The manager argues Netflix's scale advantage in content amortization remains valuable even if AI reduces content costs, and that short-form video competition has had no discernible impact on results. The manager expects Netflix to compound revenue at double-digit rates with continued margin expansion. |
Media Entertainment Content | |
Capital MarketsThe manager initiated positions in S&P Global and Intercontinental Exchange, viewing both as high-quality financial infrastructure businesses with dominant benchmark franchises. The manager believes AI disintermediation concerns are overestimated for S&P Global's data business and that perpetual futures pose no threat to ICE's institutional trading volumes. Both companies are expected to deliver low-to-mid-teens earnings growth with potential for multiple re-rating. |
Exchanges Market Data Derivatives | |
ReinsuranceThe manager transformed Howard Hughes Holdings into an insurance-focused holding company through the acquisition of Vantage Group Holdings, recruiting former Arch Capital CEO Marc Grandisson and his co-President David Gansberg to lead the business. The manager expects Vantage to achieve 20%+ returns on equity and plans to deploy $2.5-3 billion of excess real estate cash flows into insurance operations over the next 3-5 years, making insurance the substantial majority of HHH's business. |
P&C Insurance Specialty Finance Asset Managers | |
Autonomous VehiclesThe manager notes that broad investor concern regarding the potential long-term impact of autonomous vehicles continues to negatively weigh on Uber's stock, punctuated by evidence of an increasingly fraught relationship with partner Waymo. Despite these concerns, the manager highlights that Uber continues to make significant progress with other strategic partners and demonstrates very strong operating performance with earnings growing approximately 35% in 2026. |
Electric Vehicles Mobility Technology | |
CloudThe manager discusses cloud infrastructure across multiple holdings, noting that Microsoft Azure is well-positioned in a supply-constrained compute market and that its capital expenditures are prudent investments to accelerate growth. Amazon Web Services has seen revenue growth materially accelerate from 20% to over 30% as AI adoption increases. The manager views concerns around datacenter buildout capital expenditures as understating the resiliency and growth runway of these businesses. |
Data Centers AI Enterprise Software | |
RestaurantsThe manager reports that Restaurant Brands International's largest businesses continue to outperform peers, with Burger King delivering first-half same-store sales growth of 7% and International business delivering 6% growth. The company remains on track to deliver 8% operating profit growth in 2026 and the manager believes sustained high-single-digit operating profit growth combined with financial leverage and share repurchases should allow for mid-teens total returns. |
Quick Service Franchising Consumer | |
| 2025 Q4 |
AIPershing Square views AI as a major driver of market performance and structural growth, particularly benefiting megacap technology companies. The firm has positioned in AI beneficiaries like Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta, seeing AI integration as a key catalyst for these businesses. They believe AI-driven earnings growth justifies higher market multiples for leading technology companies. |
Artificial Intelligence Technology Cloud Digital Advertising |
MegacapsThe firm has significantly increased exposure to high-quality, higher-growth megacap companies, believing they offer structurally superior growth at reasonable valuations. Pershing Square argues these companies have sustainable competitive moats and should trade at higher multiples given their growth profiles. They see megacaps as driving most of the elevated earnings growth in the market. |
Large Cap Technology Growth Market Leaders | |
EarningsPershing Square emphasizes that strong earnings growth has been the primary driver of market returns, with the S&P 500's performance largely driven by 10% EPS growth rather than multiple expansion. They believe earnings growth outlook supports current market multiples, particularly for top-tier companies with sustainable competitive advantages. |
EPS Growth Fundamentals Valuation | |
Alternative Asset ManagersThrough their Brookfield investment, Pershing Square is positioned in the alternative asset management space, viewing it as benefiting from multi-trillion-dollar AI-related infrastructure investment. They see Brookfield as a leading asset-rich alternative asset manager with deep domain expertise and significant value from recurring management fee streams. |
Asset Management Infrastructure Private Markets | |
InsurancePershing Square is making a significant investment in the insurance sector through HHH's acquisition of Vantage Group Holdings for $2.1 billion. They view this as an ideal transaction to transform HHH into a diversified holding company, leveraging a well-diversified insurance platform with experienced management and strong regulatory positioning. |
Specialty Insurance Reinsurance Financial Services | |
| 2025 Q2 |
AIAmazon's AWS cloud business is well-positioned to capitalize on AI-driven growth with customer demand for AI compute far exceeding supply. Alphabet's AI leadership is evident through AI Overviews serving over two billion users and strong performance across its consumer app portfolio with AI-powered features. |
Cloud Data Centers Enterprise Software |
E-commerceAmazon operates one of the world's great e-commerce retail franchises with strong secular growth trends. E-commerce sales penetration has doubled in the past decade yet still accounts for less than 20% of total retail sales, providing significant runway for growth. |
Marketplaces Logistics Consumer Electronics | |
TravelUber continues to deliver exceptional financial performance with 18% increase in constant-currency booking value and strong growth in both mobility and delivery segments. Hilton delivered strong growth with 15% earnings per share growth despite modest RevPAR decline. |
Hotels Online Travel Air Travel | |
MusicUniversal Music Group delivered four consecutive quarters of high-single-digit subscription revenue growth with streaming revenues up 9%. The company benefits from continued streaming penetration, price increases, and new product tiers for superfans. |
Streaming Media Entertainment | |
RestaurantsRestaurant Brands International's franchised business model generates high-margin brand royalty fees from leading brands including Tim Hortons and Burger King. Chipotle faced challenges with same-store sales declining 4% but management is responding with increased marketing spend and new menu items. |
Food Foodservice Consumer Finance Retail | |
MortgagePresident Trump has demonstrated clear focus on privatization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, with press reports indicating the administration is preparing to sell between 5% and 15% of Treasury's stock in the companies at a combined valuation of roughly $500 billion by end of year. |
Mortgage Finance Government IT Financial Services | |
| 2024 Q4 |
AIAlphabet's underappreciated leadership in AI drove impressive business results in 2024. Early results from integration of AI Overviews in Search have been highly encouraging with users searching more frequently. Step-function improvements in cost per AI query down 90% over 18 months enabled rollout to over 1 billion users in more than 100 countries. |
Search Cloud Overviews Query Integration |
Alternative Asset ManagersBrookfield is a leading alternative asset manager with high-quality and rapidly growing cash flows trading at a significant discount to intrinsic value. Owns 73% of publicly-listed asset manager with significant value derived from asset-light, recurring management fee streams on $540bn of long-duration capital. |
Management Fees Fee Paying Infrastructure Renewables Cash Flows | |
HotelsHilton continued strong financial and operational performance in 2024 with fee revenues increasing 9% driven primarily by strong net unit growth. Organic net unit growth poised to accelerate in 2025 into the 6% to 7% range, helped by new brand concepts and heightened conversion activity. |
Fee Revenues Unit Growth RevPAR Conversion Brands | |
RestaurantsChipotle's industry-leading value proposition continues to resonate with customers and drive outsized growth. Same-store sales grew 7% in 2024 with traffic increasing over 5% driven by successful marketing and faster throughput. Restaurant Brands International is a high-quality business with significant long-term growth potential trading at a highly discounted valuation. |
Same Store Sales Traffic Throughput Franchisee Profitability | |
MusicUniversal Music Group is a high-quality, capital-light, rapidly growing royalty on greater music consumption. Music is in the early stages of higher monetization with Streaming 2.0 era driven by both subscriber growth and higher prices. New tiers for superfans and bundles will allow for better customer segmentation. |
Streaming Royalty Subscriber Monetization Pricing | |
RailroadsCanadian Pacific Kansas City's one-of-a-kind network and industry-leading management team continue to deliver synergy wins and excellent operations. Unique Canada to Mexico network benefits from North American onshoring. Revenue and cost synergies tracking ahead of plan with on track to realize nearly $1.5 billion of synergies by 2028. |
Network Synergies Onshoring Freight Oligopolistic | |
| 2023 Q4 |
AIAlphabet faced concerns about AI capabilities and competitive positioning, particularly around its Gemini chatbot rollout which displayed biased responses. However, Google has industry-leading AI infrastructure, training data access, and technical expertise that position it well for AI commercialization despite early missteps. |
Artificial Intelligence Machine Learning Chatbots Technology Innovation Competition |
MusicUniversal Music Group benefits from streaming price increases, artist-centric economic models, and AI partnerships while protecting artist rights. The company is expanding superfan monetization opportunities and implementing cost savings while maintaining industry-leading investments. |
Streaming Digital Services Artist Rights Monetization Content | |
RestaurantsChipotle delivered outstanding results with accelerating traffic growth and strong same-store sales, while Restaurant Brands is executing a turnaround strategy under new leadership with significant investments in franchise profitability and brand modernization. |
Quick Service Franchising Same Store Sales Traffic Growth Brand Investment | |
HotelsHilton generated strong RevPAR growth reflecting continued recovery from COVID disruption and robust domestic trends. The company benefits from record low supply growth, strong group demand, and accelerating net unit growth with the largest pipeline in company history. |
RevPAR Occupancy Supply Growth Business Travel Pipeline | |
Real EstateHoward Hughes delivered record land sales profits driven by housing inventory shortages and strong homebuilder demand. The company is spinning off Seaport Entertainment while establishing itself as a pure-play master-planned community company with decades-long value creation opportunity. |
Master Planned Communities Land Sales Housing Shortage Development Spin-off |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2026 | Fund Letters | Bill Ackman | BN | Brookfield Corporation | Financials | Asset Management & Custody Banks | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Alternatives, carried_interest, compounding, infrastructure, Wealth | Login |
| Feb 11, 2026 | Fund Letters | Bill Ackman | UBER | Uber Technologies, Inc. | Industrials | Passenger Ground Transportation | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Autonomous, Bookings, mobility, Operating_Leverage, platform | Login |
| Feb 11, 2026 | Fund Letters | Bill Ackman | AMZN | Amazon.com, Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Broadline Retail | Bull | NASDAQ | advertising, AI, cloud, ecommerce, hyperscale | Login |
| Feb 11, 2026 | Fund Letters | Bill Ackman | GOOG | Alphabet Inc. | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | NASDAQ | AI, cloud, monetization, scale, Search | Login |
| Feb 11, 2026 | Fund Letters | Bill Ackman | META | Meta Platforms, Inc. | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | NASDAQ | advertising, AI, Engagement, monetization, scale | Login |
| Feb 11, 2026 | Fund Letters | Bill Ackman | FNMA | Federal National Mortgage Association | Financials | Mortgage Finance | Bull | Dubai Financial Market | Conservatorship, Housing, Privatization, recapitalization, warrants | Login |
| Feb 11, 2026 | Fund Letters | Bill Ackman | HTZ | Hertz Global Holdings, Inc. | Industrials | Passenger Ground Transportation | Bull | NASDAQ | Autonomous, EBITDA, Fleet, turnaround, Utilization | Login |
| Feb 11, 2026 | Fund Letters | Bill Ackman | QSR | Restaurant Brands International Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Restaurants | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Comps, Franchising, growth, Margins, valuation | Login |
| Feb 11, 2026 | Fund Letters | Bill Ackman | HHH | Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. | Real Estate | Real Estate Development | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | cashflow, diversification, holding_company, real_estate, transformation | Login |
| Feb 11, 2026 | Fund Letters | Bill Ackman | CMG | Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Restaurants | Bear | New York Stock Exchange | Comps, exit, leadership, Margins, valuation | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| UBER | Uber's share price was down 12% year-to-date as of June 30, 2026. Broad investor concern regarding the potential long-term impact of autonomous vehicles (AVs) continues to negatively weigh on Uber's stock, punctuated this year by evidence of an increasingly fraught relationship with its partner, Waymo. Offsetting these concerns, the company continues to make significant progress with its many other strategic partners, with AV launches planned in multiple new cities later this year. Against this backdrop, Uber continues to demonstrate very strong operating and financial performance, with earnings on pace to grow approximately 35% this year. Valuation is increasingly disconnected from its fundamentals. It now trades at 19 times earnings, near its lowest-ever valuation. |
| BN | BN's share price decreased 7% year-to-date as of June 30, 2026. Strong company performance has been overshadowed by sector-wide concerns including the durability of business development companies as a growth vector, and the risk to asset managers who have high investment allocations to private credit and/or software companies which may be at risk for disintermediation. Importantly, Brookfield has immaterial exposure to these risks and has accordingly outperformed peers year-to-date. We believe Brookfield remains on track for mid-teens-or-better distributable EPS growth this year, dependent on the exact pace of BN's carried interest realizations which should meaningfully accelerate over the next several quarters. BN trades at 14 times our earnings estimate, a low multiple given our views on growth and business quality. |
| MSFT | Microsoft's share price decreased 8% year-to-date as of June 30, 2026 from our average cost. The company's share price trades at one of its lowest earnings multiples of the past decade, reflecting investor concerns around AI disruption to the company's core M365 productivity suite and the growth prospects of its Azure cloud business as well as skepticism about the company's dramatically increased investment in compute infrastructure. We believe M365's deep embeddedness in daily workflows, superior price-to-value proposition and proprietary Copilot AI agent make it far more resilient to AI disruption than point solution software. With direct involvement from CEO Satya Nadella, the company has redoubled Copilot product innovation and growing adoption should further entrench M365 as agentic work scales. In our view, Azure, the second largest public cloud hyperscaler, is well positioned in a supply-constrained compute market, and its capital expenditures are prudent investments to accelerate growth. Microsoft is leading the shift toward a more open, multi-model ecosystem that lets enterprise customers optimize the ROI of their AI initiatives, which we believe will expand token consumption to Azure's benefit. Together, we believe that these tailwinds should enable Microsoft to sustain its high-teens historical earnings growth algorithm over the long term. |
| META | Meta's share price declined 15% year-to-date as of June 30, 2026. The company's share price remains pressured by its substantial ramp in operating expenses and capital expenditures funding its AI initiatives. We view Meta as one of the clearest beneficiaries of AI, which is driving higher engagement through better content recommendation, greater ad monetization through improved targeting, and meaningful product innovation in consumer and business agents. Though still in the early days, these benefits are already visible in greater revenue acceleration in Meta's core advertising business, which is growing at its fastest quarterly pace since 2021. Meta's compute investment also affords downside protection as capacity not consumed internally can be profitably monetized in a highly supply-constrained compute market. Following this year's elevated investment, we expect Meta to grow earnings at a 20%-plus rate over the next few years. Against this growth backdrop, we view Meta's 18 times forward earnings multiple as a highly discounted valuation for a dominant consumer internet franchise with a stable user base of 3.6 billion daily active users. |
| QSR | QSR's share price increased 8% year-to-date as of June 30, 2026, as we believe investors are beginning to better appreciate the durability of its growth and its improved capital return program. QSR's largest businesses continue to outperform peers, and the company is returning to its capital-light model. Notably, Burger King's first half same-store sales growth of 7% is well above peers, reflecting the brand's foundational improvements and recent elevation campaign. The International business has likewise outperformed, delivering first-half same-store sales growth of 6%. With this momentum, the company remains on track to deliver 8% operating profit growth this year, consistent with its longer-term targets. We believe sustained high-single-digit operating profit growth combined with appropriate financial leverage and an ongoing share repurchase program should allow for a mid-teens total return before considering any potential for an increase in QSR's P/E ratio. Despite these favorable attributes, QSR trades at 17 times earnings, a material discount to peers and our view of intrinsic value. We expect the company's stock price to increase as the company further expands its recently initiated share buyback program and delivers strong EPS growth over time. |
| AMZN | Amazon's share price increased 3% year-to-date as of June 30, 2026. As with our other hyperscaler investments, we believe investor concerns around the magnitude of capital expenditures behind the datacenter buildout at Amazon Web Services (AWS) continue to weigh on the stock. These concerns understate the resiliency of Amazon's business and its significant growth runway, as evidenced by the company's robust operating momentum. Increasing AI adoption has materially accelerated AWS's revenue growth profile from 20% growth in 2024 and 2025 to more than 30% this year. Likewise, Amazon's retail segment continues to take market share, with unit volumes up 15% in Q1 2026, the fastest pace since 2021. Longer term, we believe Amazon can compound earnings at a 20%-plus rate, driven by secular tailwinds from AI and rising e-commerce penetration alongside substantial retail margin expansion. |
| HHH | Howard Hughes' share price declined 10% year-to-date as of June 30, 2026. In June, HHH closed the acquisition of Vantage Group Holdings Ltd., a specialty insurance and reinsurance company. We thereafter announced a leadership transition whereby former Arch Capital Group CEO Marc Grandisson became Executive Chairman of Vantage, and David Gansberg, Marc's former co-President, will become CEO of Vantage when his non-compete ends in June of next year. Marc and David recently worked as close partners to grow Arch, one of the most successful insurance and reinsurance companies. During Marc's nearly seven-year tenure as CEO, Arch delivered a total shareholder return of 298%, or 23.2% per annum, compared to 144% and 14.4% for the S&P Insurance Index over the same period. HHH's recent acquisition of Vantage and our recruitment of Marc and David underpin Howard Hughes' ongoing transformation from a pure-play real-estate business into an insurance-focused, diversified holding company. Under their leadership, we believe Vantage's insurance operations can achieve high rates of profitable growth and that we can greatly improve the returns and growth potential of Vantage's investment portfolio. If Vantage achieves our goal of achieving a long-term return on equity of 20% or more and reinvests its earnings into the business at similar returns on capital, its book value per share and business value should also grow at a rate of at least 20% per annum. We intend to deploy the substantial majority of the $2.5 billion to $3 billion of excess cash flow that we expect Howard Hughes' real estate operations to generate over the next three to five years towards its insurance operations. |
| FNMA | Fannie Mae shares declined 39% year-to-date as of June 30, 2026. Shares of both companies more than tripled last year as President Trump and other officials publicly and repeatedly reiterated their commitment to an eventual privatization, including statements that an offering could occur by the end of 2025. The stocks have since retraced much of last year's gains as no visible steps have been taken towards privatization and the administration has been noticeably quieter on the issue since the fall. While investors are assigning a lower probability to a favorable resolution in the near-term, the per-share intrinsic values of Fannie and Freddie continue to grow as the companies recapitalize through retained earnings. We continue to believe that there is ample time remaining for the Trump administration to deliver on its promises and that the shares will be worth many times today's prices once this occurs. |
| FMCC | Freddie Mac shares declined 41% year-to-date as of June 30, 2026. Shares of both companies more than tripled last year as President Trump and other officials publicly and repeatedly reiterated their commitment to an eventual privatization, including statements that an offering could occur by the end of 2025. The stocks have since retraced much of last year's gains as no visible steps have been taken towards privatization and the administration has been noticeably quieter on the issue since the fall. While investors are assigning a lower probability to a favorable resolution in the near-term, the per-share intrinsic values of Fannie and Freddie continue to grow as the companies recapitalize through retained earnings. We continue to believe that there is ample time remaining for the Trump administration to deliver on its promises and that the shares will be worth many times today's prices once this occurs. |
| V | Earlier this year, we initiated positions in Visa and Mastercard, two businesses we have long admired, which provide the dominant global networks for consumer and commercial payments, with an increasing share of revenue growth coming from value-added services. In our view, Visa and Mastercard are among the highest-quality businesses in the world. Both are capital-light toll-takers that earn a nominal fee on each transaction without taking any material risk and are natural beneficiaries of higher inflation. Their networks, built over decades, connect billions of consumers with hundreds of millions of merchants and thousands of financial institutions. Card volumes are still approximately half of addressable consumer spending globally and have a long runway of growth as cards continue to take share from legacy payment methods and e-commerce continues to grow at a rapid rate. Value-added services now represent approximately 30% and 40% of revenues at Visa and Mastercard, respectively, and are growing at two to three times the rate of the payments business. Despite these attributes, Visa and Mastercard recently de-rated to 22 times next twelve months' earnings. We believe stablecoins represent an opportunity for the card networks rather than a threat. In consumer payments, cards offer near-universal merchant acceptance, fraud protection, access to credit, and rewards, advantages that stablecoins cannot replicate. Similarly, we believe agentic commerce is more likely to expand the payments ecosystem than to erode the networks' moats, as agents reduce friction, enable more frequent purchases, and accelerate the digitization of commerce. |
| MA | Earlier this year, we initiated positions in Visa and Mastercard, two businesses we have long admired, which provide the dominant global networks for consumer and commercial payments, with an increasing share of revenue growth coming from value-added services. In our view, Visa and Mastercard are among the highest-quality businesses in the world. Both are capital-light toll-takers that earn a nominal fee on each transaction without taking any material risk and are natural beneficiaries of higher inflation. Their networks, built over decades, connect billions of consumers with hundreds of millions of merchants and thousands of financial institutions. Card volumes are still approximately half of addressable consumer spending globally and have a long runway of growth as cards continue to take share from legacy payment methods and e-commerce continues to grow at a rapid rate. Value-added services now represent approximately 30% and 40% of revenues at Visa and Mastercard, respectively, and are growing at two to three times the rate of the payments business. Despite these attributes, Visa and Mastercard recently de-rated to 22 times next twelve months' earnings. We believe stablecoins represent an opportunity for the card networks rather than a threat. In consumer payments, cards offer near-universal merchant acceptance, fraud protection, access to credit, and rewards, advantages that stablecoins cannot replicate. Similarly, we believe agentic commerce is more likely to expand the payments ecosystem than to erode the networks' moats, as agents reduce friction, enable more frequent purchases, and accelerate the digitization of commerce. |
| NFLX | We acquired a position in Netflix, a business we briefly owned in 2022 and have followed closely ever since. Netflix is the dominant global streaming platform with over 325 million subscribers, nearly double the combined base of its two closest competitors, Disney+ and HBO Max. Netflix has since effectively won the streaming wars. Its subscriber base now exceeds any competitor's by a wide margin, and that scale is self-reinforcing. Content discipline has followed, with cash content spend growing at just a 2% annual rate since 2021 and EBIT margins expanding from 21% to approximately 31.5% today. Our opportunity arose after Netflix's share price fell ~50% from its June 2025 high of $134, de-rating from over 40 times forward earnings per share to 21 times. With respect to engagement, investors have been intently focused on watch time metrics without appropriately considering the quality of that watch time or the impact of geographic mix shifts. On AI, we believe concerns understate the cost of generating long-form, high-quality video, which remains among the most compute-intensive AI tasks. Looking forward, we expect Netflix to compound revenue at a double-digit growth rate, with content costs growing more slowly than revenue driving continued margin expansion. |
| SPGI | Earlier this year, we initiated a position in S&P Global, a business we have admired for decades and previously owned in 2017. S&P Global provides benchmarks, data, analytics, and workflow tools to customers in the financial and energy markets. Our opportunity to invest in S&P Global arose amid concerns of AI disintermediation of the company's data offerings and workflow and analytics products, including Capital IQ. In February 2026, the stock declined more than 25% from peak-to-trough following Anthropic's launch of Claude Cowork and SPGI's release of 2026 organic growth guidance that was below the company's medium-term financial targets. Each of SPGI's benchmark franchises is a high-margin, IP licensing business with a formidable competitive moat inside an oligopolistic market structure. Despite broad-based concerns of AI disintermediation in the company's Market Intelligence segment, we believe the market overestimates the portion of segment profits susceptible to AI disruption and underestimates the potential for AI to accelerate demand for S&P's proprietary and curated structured data as LLM-based workflows become increasingly important. While AI may eventually exert price or volume pressure on a relatively small percentage of Market Intelligence revenues, we believe this will be offset by growing demand for high-quality proprietary and curated data. |
| ICE | We recently established an investment in Intercontinental Exchange, a business we have followed for nearly a decade. Founded in 2000 by current Chairman & CEO Jeff Sprecher, ICE is a leading global exchange operator and financial data and infrastructure provider built through 25 years of organic growth and acquisitions of marquee financial infrastructure assets. Its highly moated Exchanges segment generates nearly 70% of earnings, anchored by a crown-jewel energy franchise with revenues more than two-and-a-half times those of its next-largest competitor. ICE has delivered an 18% annualized return since its 2005 IPO and 15% annual EPS growth since 2006, with EPS growing in each of the last nineteen years. Despite exceptional earnings growth and business momentum into 2026, ICE shares fell 21% in the year before our purchase as its multiple compressed from 25 times to 17 times earnings per share, near a record low. More recent fears center on perpetual futures, or perps, following regulatory approval of the first onshore contract, for Bitcoin, on May 29th. We are confident perps hold little if any appeal for institutional investors who drive over ~95% of ICE's trading volume. ICE's existing contracts offer orders of magnitude greater liquidity, far lower financing rates fixed upfront, and the ability to take physical delivery of a commodity and hedge specific geographic and temporal exposures. |
| ALC | Alcon is the world's leading ophthalmology company, with a dominant position in surgical vision, strong positions in vision care and contact lenses, and a small but promising pharmaceuticals business. It benefits from attractive long-term, mid-single-digit market growth supported by aging population demographics, rising global incomes, and improved access to healthcare. The core of Alcon's business is its dominant surgical vision franchise, supported by a 30,000-unit capital equipment installed base. While the company has grown earnings at an 8% compounded rate since its spin-out from Novartis in 2019, we believe that historical growth significantly understates Alcon's potential. We believe Alcon's current 20% operating profit margin remains well below its structural potential and expect operating margins to rise to 25% or greater over the next several years. Over the past year, Alcon's valuation multiple has compressed from a high-20s multiple of earnings to ~18 times due to a combination of sector weakness and company-specific factors. We believe Alcon's mid-term 6%-8% revenue growth target remains credible, supported by a strong equipment launch cycle, a high rate of growth in ocular health, anticipated reacceleration in cataract procedural volumes, and innovation in Alcon's intraocular lens business. |
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