The curated database of hedge funds that publish investor letters. Research by geography, strategy, and schools of thought.
| # | Fund | Strategy | Style | Geography | AUM | Latest Letter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Global equities surged 13.8% in Q2 2026, driven by resurgent optimism around AI capital expenditure and semiconductor demand. Technology-heavy markets and economies embedded in semiconductor supply chains delivered exceptional performance, with emerging markets posting their strongest quarterly gains since 2009. Korea and Taiwan led, benefiting from sustained hyperscaler spending on AI infrastructure, high-bandwidth memory, and advanced fabrication. The announcement of a US-Iran ceasefire framework eased Middle East tensions, causing oil prices to retreat sharply and the energy sector to underperform significantly. Central banks maintained restrictive policy stances, with the ECB raising rates 25 basis points in June despite cutting growth projections, while the Fed held steady under new Chair Kevin Warsh. Inflation pressures moderated but remained above target in key regions. Performance became increasingly concentrated in a narrow group of AI beneficiaries, with investors differentiating between companies with tangible AI earnings versus thematic exposure. Valuation concerns introduced volatility late in the quarter, though the AI investment cycle's durability remained intact with record semiconductor equipment results reinforcing the thesis.
Q2 2026 was dominated by the AI capital expenditure cycle, which drove exceptional performance in semiconductor-exposed markets, particularly Taiwan and Korea, while geopolitical de-escalation in the Middle East led to sharp energy price declines and sector underperformance.
The outlook remains constructive for AI-related investments and semiconductor supply chains, with the investment cycle showing durability despite valuation concerns. Geopolitical risks have moderated following the US-Iran ceasefire, though energy market normalization remains incomplete. Central banks are maintaining restrictive policy stances with heightened sensitivity to inflation, even as growth risks persist. Performance is expected to remain concentrated in technology and AI beneficiaries, with emerging markets particularly well-positioned given their role in semiconductor supply chains.
As of Jul 31, 2026
Lead Portfolio Manager
Kevin Murphy
Managing Partner
High Conviction Bearish
Market Conviction
This is a quarterly market review covering broad indices and regions, not a fund letter with specific investment positions. No individual holdings are named, sized, or discussed with investment thesis detail. The document is entirely observational and retrospective, describing what happened in markets rather than expressing conviction about specific investments. The absence of any named positions, portfolio construction details, or forward investment commitments means conviction cannot exceed 0.34 per the rubric. Given the purely descriptive nature, the score is set at the low end of the 0.00-0.34 range.
Growth Outlook
The document expresses strong optimism about market conditions with global markets posting strong gains, record highs in multiple indices, and positive economic indicators. The tone emphasizes robust performance across asset classes with favorable conditions continuing.
Risk Appetite
While markets showed strong performance, the document acknowledges elevated valuations and ongoing risks, suggesting a balanced but positive risk appetite. The broad-based gains across asset classes indicate constructive positioning without excessive risk-taking.
Capital Deployment
This document is a market review, not a fund letter, and contains no information about cash levels, position additions, or capital deployment decisions. It describes market behavior and index performance but does not discuss any portfolio management actions. Without any deployment activity to assess, the score defaults to 0.00 per the rubric guidance.
Forward Guidance
Forward guidance is mixed with positive economic indicators supporting fourth quarter optimism, but also acknowledgment of persistent challenges including inflation, geopolitical tensions, and elevated valuations that could impact future performance.
Language Signal
Directional language leans moderately bullish with frequent use of 'strong,' 'robust,' 'resilient,' 'sustained,' 'reinforced,' and 'outperformed.' AI and semiconductor themes are described with positive momentum language. However, this is balanced by risk language including 'volatility,' 'concerns,' 'uncertainty,' 'lagged,' 'underperformed,' and 'pressure.' Energy and commodities sections contain notably bearish framing. Net balance favors bullish language but not overwhelmingly, warranting a score in the moderately positive range.
Perceived Risk
The document acknowledges several risk factors including elevated stock valuations, persistent inflation, geopolitical tensions, and political uncertainties, but these are presented as manageable concerns rather than severe systemic risks in the context of strong market performance.
Opportunity Density
The document describes a relatively rich opportunity set, particularly in AI-related investments and semiconductor supply chains where 'record results' and 'sustained demand' are emphasized. Multiple regions and sectors posted strong gains, with emerging markets delivering 'strongest quarterly performance since 2009.' However, the document also notes that opportunities were 'increasingly concentrated' in a narrow group of AI beneficiaries and that some markets 'lagged' or 'underperformed.' This suggests selective rather than broad-based opportunities, warranting a score in the 0.55-0.79 range reflecting good but not universal opportunity density.
Time Horizon
This market review document does not discuss investment time horizons or thesis duration. It is a retrospective quarterly summary of market performance without forward-looking investment positioning or catalyst timelines. The document mentions 'long-term earnings drivers' once in passing but provides no detail on expected holding periods or thesis realization timeframes. Without assessable time horizon information, the score defaults to 0.55 per rubric guidance, adjusted slightly lower to 0.50 given the purely retrospective nature of the content.
Top Conviction Themes
Key Catalysts
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