| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
TEAM Asset Management navigated Q4 2025 with a diversified approach capitalizing on market resilience despite significant macroeconomic fog including a 43-day US government shutdown. The core thesis centers on selective exposure to AI beneficiaries while questioning whether hyperscalers can convert their massive $500 billion capex plans into meaningful shareholder returns. The strategy emphasizes international diversification as ex-US markets broke out from 18-year trading ranges, particularly in Asia where markets reached decade-plus highs. Fixed income positioning focuses on the belly of the yield curve given concerns over debt sustainability and central bank policy divergence. Precious metals serve as essential portfolio insurance, with gold and silver delivering exceptional returns of 65% and 148% respectively in 2025. Key risks include AI valuation concerns, mounting US fiscal deficits consuming 25% of tax revenue for interest payments, and Federal Reserve independence erosion. The outlook anticipates continued deregulation benefits for smaller companies while maintaining defensive positioning through precious metals and international exposure.
Markets demonstrated remarkable resilience despite significant macroeconomic uncertainty, with the manager positioning for continued AI investment themes while diversifying internationally and maintaining precious metals exposure as portfolio insurance against mounting fiscal and monetary risks.
The manager expects smaller companies to flourish as the Trump administration focuses on deregulation and monetary stimulus. International ex-US markets are expected to continue outperforming given relative valuation attractiveness. The manager remains sceptical about longer-term interest rate pricing and expects steeper yield curves ahead. Precious metals are viewed as essential portfolio insurance given ongoing geopolitical and currency risks.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 12 2026 | 2025 Q4 | AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA | AI, Central Banks, China, commodities, gold, rates, Silver, technology | - | Hyperscalers plan close to $500 billion in AI capex spending for 2026, raising questions about converting this investment into meaningful profits. The AI chip rental market remains competitive with sticky pricing, suggesting the AI bubble has not yet burst. Survey data shows substantial increase in AI use among large American companies with 40% expecting additional AI use in 2026. Physical gold recorded new all-time highs during the quarter driven by geopolitical instability, currency debasement, and physical supply shortages. Central banks have been the marginal buyer, purchasing record amounts including 634 tonnes in the first three quarters of 2025. Gold ended 2025 with gains of 65%, its best calendar year in decades. Silver returned 54% in Q4 driven by a deepening structural deficit from exhaustion of above-ground inventories and absence of new production. Silver's transition to a strategic industrial asset for AI data centers, solar panels, and EVs created supply/demand mismatch. The US officially added silver to its Critical Minerals List, acknowledging its vital role in national security and energy transition. The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points but exposed deep fractures within the FOMC over prioritizing weakening jobs versus high inflation. The ECB left rates unchanged at 2% with President Lagarde suggesting the rate cutting cycle is complete. The Bank of Japan raised rates to a 30-year high, forcing a global bond re-pricing. Chinese equities broke out to decade-plus highs despite the country remaining firmly in deflation with no sign of consumption recovery. China's growing competitiveness across high-tech sectors including EVs, battery storage, robots and automation is underappreciated. China's formidable edge regarding cheap and limitless access to energy power is likely to become a major talking point. |
| Nov 4 2025 | 2025 Q3 | - | - | - | |
| Jan 9 2025 | 2024 Q4 | - | - | - | |
| Oct 9 2024 | 2024 Q3 | - | - | - | |
| Jul 11 2024 | 2024 Q2 | - | - | - | |
| Apr 8 2024 | 2024 Q1 | - | - | - | |
| Jan 15 2024 | 2023 Q4 | - | - | - | |
| Oct 9 2023 | 2023 Q3 | - | - | - | |
| Apr 17 2023 | 2023 Q1 | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
ChinaChina's economic rebalancing appears to be moving forward. Market liquidity, anti-involution and a measured consumer policy are likely to drive a sustained market performance in 4Q. Fiscal support and ongoing reforms in China is supportive of a stronger currency. |
Growth Policy Currency | |
GoldGold returned +65% in dollars in 2025, driven by broadening demand from central banks, professional and retail investors. Central banks now hold 24% of reserves in gold versus 23% in US Treasuries for the first time. Maintained 12% portfolio allocation throughout the year. |
Central Banks Reserves Diversification Demand | |
RatesFederal Reserve resumed rate-cutting cycle with first cut since December 2024, signaling resumption of easing. Expected three cuts of 25bps between now and first quarter 2026 as Fed responds to signs of weakness in US labor market. |
Fed Monetary Policy Labor Market Easing Liquidity | |
SilverSilver surged 220% since April 2024, generating powerful sell signal for precious metals. Performance mirrors 1979 parabolic blow-off that marked end of gold bull market. Retail demand peaked with reports of long lines at dealers globally before recent 40% decline from highs. |
Precious Parabolic Retail Blow-off |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Elevator Pitches found | ||||||||||
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| AAPL | Apple Inc. represents 1.6% of company owned with cost basis of $6,255 million and market value of $61,962 million, providing $280 million in 2025 dividends. |
| AMZN | One company we own that we think has unique positioning to benefit from both the infrastructure and application layers is Amazon. Amazon's logistical prowess is one of the foremost moats in business today and it can and will be enhanced with AI. The company will do this in multiple ways, with better orchestration of its logistics assets and underlying cargo, as well as the buildout of more capable, sophisticated and robust robotics. Amazon is singularly well positioned to dominate the coordination layer, with AI's help, across its entire logistics network. |
| GOOGL | In the third quarter, Google, Kairos Power, and the Tennessee Valley Authority announced a major collaboration centered on a novel power purchase agreement. Google followed this announcement with another significant step forward. On October 27, Google and NextEra Energy announced plans to restart the Duane Arnold Energy Center. |
| META | On January 9, Meta Platforms unveiled a new agreement with Vistra—the largest generator of competitive electricity in the United States—as well as with TerraPower and Oklo. The announcement builds on Meta's agreement last year with Constellation Energy and positions the company to become one of the largest corporate purchasers of nuclear-generated electricity in the United States. |
| MSFT | MSFT was a detractor in 4Q25 following its fiscal first-quarter 2026 earnings report released on October 29. While results were better than expected operationally, investor reaction was driven by guidance and capital expenditure intensity rather than headline performance. Revenue grew 17% year-over-year, exceeding consensus expectations, and Azure revenue increased 39% year-over-year, also ahead of estimates. However, management guided to a sequential deceleration in Azure growth in fiscal Q2, signaling some moderation after a period of exceptional demand. |
| NVDA | AI bellwether NVIDIA's very strong set of earnings in late November helped the AI theme re-assert its dominance when investors breathed a sigh of relief following the results. |
| TSLA | Under the previous system, companies that produced only electric vehicles—most notably Tesla—generated large quantities of credits that could then be sold to manufacturers falling short of their EV production targets, allowing them to avoid regulatory penalties. |
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