The curated database of hedge funds that publish investor letters. Research by geography, strategy, and schools of thought.
| # | Fund | Strategy | Style | Geography | AUM | Latest Letter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bristol Gate's US Equity Strategy lagged the S&P 500 in Q2 2026 but continued to outpace the index in dividend growth, with portfolio TTM dividend growth of 15.4% versus 5.6% for the benchmark. The strategy's machine learning model identifies high dividend-growth companies across styles, with current beneficiaries including industrial, infrastructure-linked, and semiconductor-adjacent businesses. AI remained the dominant market theme, with leadership shifting toward fundamental enablers around scarce capacity and infrastructure constraints. Applied Materials, KLA Corp, and Amphenol were top contributors, while Intuit, McKesson, and Costco detracted. The manager executed disciplined capital recycling, adding five new positions (EMCOR, Costco, KLA, Howmet Aerospace, W.R. Berkley) scoring highly on the dividend-growth model, while exiting five positions (Accenture, Intuit, Thermo Fisher, Moody's, Sherwin-Williams) due to deteriorating dividend-growth trajectories or AI disruption concerns. The 22-name equal-weighted portfolio serves as a structural anti-bubble stance, capping any single position at roughly 5.5%. Jason Miller was appointed Lead Portfolio Manager in May 2026, bringing 17 years of investment experience and an engineering background that complements the firm's data science capabilities. The manager believes the portfolio's quality and compounding dividend growth offer attractive risk-adjusted characteristics in a market defined by infrastructure bottlenecks and shifting technology cycles.
Bristol Gate's US Equity Strategy employs a machine learning-driven, evidence-based approach to identify companies with persistent high dividend growth, targeting businesses that can sustain well-above-average dividend increases far into the future through a style-agnostic, cash-flow-focused framework.
The manager believes the portfolio's distinct blend of fundamental quality and compounding dividend growth offers highly attractive risk-adjusted characteristics. In a market environment increasingly defined by infrastructure bottlenecks and shifting technology cycles, the style-agnostic, cash-flow-focused approach remains well-positioned to generate durable long-term alpha. The portfolio's fundamentals are attractive with high expected dividend growth, and earnings durability, balance sheet strength, and dividend coverage ratios are all consistent with the thesis. The manager is positive about the outlook, acknowledging that the market will come their way at times and at other times it will not, but trusting in a process with a long track record.
As of Jul 21, 2026
Bristol Gate Capital Partners Inc. is an independent, employee-owned investment management company founded in 2006 and based in Toronto, Ontario. The firm manages approximately $2.8 billion in AUM/AUA across US and Canadian equity strategies. Under current CIO Izet Elmazi's leadership since 2020, the firm has continued the dividend growth investment approach established by founding CIO Peter Simmie, who achieved a 10-year alpha of 3.5% during his tenure. The U.S. Equity Strategy launched May 15, 2009, and has earned Morningstar's five-star rating for 10-year performance.
Lead Portfolio Manager & CIO
Moderate Conviction Bullish
Market Conviction
The strategy runs a concentrated 22-position equal-weighted portfolio with named holdings and explicit position-level rationale for each addition and exit. The manager provides specific thesis summaries for new purchases (EMCOR, Costco, KLA, Howmet, W.R. Berkley) and clear reasons for exits (Accenture, Intuit, TMO, MCO, SHW). However, the equal-weight structure intentionally caps any single position at roughly 5.5%, which limits individual position conviction expression. The manager emphasizes trusting the machine learning model's signals rather than making concentrated bets, stating 'part of the job is being challenged by those ideas, understanding why they might be right, and trusting a process.' The conviction is in the process and diversified portfolio construction rather than concentrated individual positions, placing this in the moderate-to-high range but below the threshold for high-conviction concentrated strategies.
Growth Outlook
Market outlook remains above average conviction: Bristol Gate experienced headwinds in 2025 due to narrow AI market concentration but remains committed to its dividend-growth focus, introducing a new predictive AI model to target...
Risk Appetite
Risk appetite posture is above average conviction: Bristol Gate experienced headwinds in 2025 due to narrow AI market concentration but remains committed to its dividend-growth focus, introducing a new predictive AI model to target...
Capital Deployment
The manager executed capital rotation during the quarter, exiting five positions and adding five new positions, but there is no evidence of net cash deployment or de-risking. The letter describes 'disciplined capital recycling' where proceeds from sales were redeployed into new opportunities. The portfolio remains fully invested with 22 equally weighted positions throughout. This is classic rotation activity with no change in net exposure, scoring near zero per the rotation rule. The manager is actively managing the portfolio but not increasing or decreasing overall market exposure.
Forward Guidance
Forward guidance signal: Bristol Gate experienced headwinds in 2025 due to narrow AI market concentration but remains committed to its dividend-growth focus, introducing a new predictive AI model to target...
Language Signal
The letter contains balanced directional language. Bullish terms include 'attractive,' 'well-positioned,' 'strong,' 'durable,' 'compelling,' 'high-conviction,' and 'superior risk-adjusted return profiles.' Bearish or cautious language includes 'lagged,' 'debate,' 'risks,' 'disruption,' 'deterioration,' 'concerns,' 'scrutiny,' 'headwinds,' and 'bubble.' The manager discusses both opportunities (AI infrastructure, dividend growth, quality businesses) and risks (AI disruption, valuation concerns, geopolitical tensions, concentration risk). The net balance tilts mildly positive given the emphasis on attractive portfolio fundamentals and structural positioning, but the cautious framing around market dynamics and risk management prevents a higher score.
Perceived Risk
Perceived risk level is evaluated as moderate conviction. Bristol Gate experienced headwinds in 2025 due to narrow AI market concentration but remains committed to its dividend-growth focus, introducing a new predictive AI model to target...
Opportunity Density
The manager sees selective opportunities in defined areas rather than a broad opportunity set. The letter emphasizes that 'this cycle looks structurally different' and creates 'an ideal hunting ground for our strategy' in industrial, infrastructure-linked, and semiconductor-adjacent businesses with robust cash flows. Five new positions were added that 'scored at the higher end of our proprietary dividend-growth model' and 'possess the structural tailwinds and capital-allocation flexibility required to deliver resilient performance.' However, the manager also exited five positions due to deteriorating dividend-growth trajectories, indicating selectivity and discipline. The tone suggests good opportunities exist but require careful screening through the model, placing this in the selective-to-moderate opportunity range rather than abundant.
Time Horizon
The manager emphasizes a multi-year investment horizon focused on 'persistent high dividend growth' and 'durable long-term alpha.' The letter states the goal is identifying 'businesses that can sustain well-above-average dividend increases far into the future' and describes the approach as focused on 'compounding dividend growth.' The manager discusses W.R. Berkley's 25 consecutive years of dividend increases and emphasizes 'free-cash-flow generation' and 'shareholder-friendly capital allocation' as key criteria. However, the strategy includes quarterly rebalancing and the manager acknowledges 'good periods and bad periods' across different time horizons, indicating some medium-term performance awareness. The emphasis on long-term compounding and dividend sustainability places this in the multi-year range, but the quarterly rebalancing and performance monitoring prevent a score above 0.75.
Top Conviction Themes
Key Catalysts
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